look at me. it works, 100%. (announcer) find out more at aerotrainer.com. that's aerotrainer.com. ♪ >> we are going to start to see spending go, and then we will have to have a real conversation about inflation. >> whether there is an uptick in inflation, cyclicals, structural's, to be determined. but the debate has changed, and that matters. >> the forces that are working or slowing down the recovery of the world economy. >> we are going to see rates pressured with high unemployment for a while. >> at the market rallies, you have started to seek volatility climb again. that is typically not a great sign. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone.

jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene. a simulcast, bloomberg radio, bloomberg television. we have not talked enough about this, near one million payrolls and claims maybe will confirm that trend today. jonathan: and job openings skyhigh in america today. i know lisa wants to talk about may be a labor shortage in the months to come. all-time highs on the s&p 500, and it is a nasdaq come back. nasdaq 100 futures up about 0.8%. tom: that is a bull market. we saw this from james dimon yesterday. i want to go to the reading right now, which is the zeitgeist about this year and maybe the zeitgeist out next year, and we are beginning to hear of a boom that could extend beyond two quarters. jonathan: that is a change. i'm totally with you. tom: that's rare. jonathan: people are talking about it a little more over the last month. the jamie dimon piece i think covered what has already been

covered to thousand times over the last couple of months, with the exception of one thing, the story of 2023, that maybe this boom can continue. so what we are estimating here, the duration of it over the long term? tom: i'm speechless because jon and i are on the same page. lisa, i have to go to the grand confirmation of where high-yield garbage yield is coming in against the movable treasury yield. on radio, you can see my hands moving right now, and the answer is it is wicked tight, isn't it? lisa: it's really nice u.n. jon r -- nice you and jon are wicked tight after dr. phil stepped in. [laughter] jonathan: because we've been separated now for 12 months. lisa: you think that wasn't intentional? tom: what are we like the first day we are all three at a table? jonathan: won't that be a beautiful thing?

maybe months's -- maybe month's end. lisa: going back to credit spreads, the issue here is we will see a robust economy and we are not even not necessarily the middle of the economic whom if we are looking up to 2023, as jamie dimon is talking about. we have companies that aren't at great risk of defaulting, so you could see that tightness, that lack of risk premium raising a question of what we are setting up for after this period of economic excellence. jonathan: there is. lisa: you just have to look around corners, if you will. jonathan: you've been looking around corners for the last 12 months. lisa: decades. [laughter] tom: i'm going to go to data right now. jon is going to save me with the other asset classes. what do you need to know right now? the vix, 16.92. it drives ever lower. i look at the moving average across -- at the moving

average. we are about 1.63 vix points away from nirvana. jonathan: we had another 0.8% -- we add another 0.8% to the rally for the nasdaq. on the 10 year yield, your number this morning on .65%. -- this morning 1.65%. tom: everyone has a theory. christopher harvey has rewritten the theory for this year, wells fargo head of equity strategy. you are saying momentum has turned the corner. what do you mean? christopher: for a long time, we didn't like the so-called chart looks good.

you are not getting paid for it, so what we think is companies that are doing well will continue to do well, and the momentum basket has changed dramatically in the last year. it has become a lot more value, and what we have seen is kind of a convergence between value of high low and low low. in some cases, the high momentum is cheaper on some metrics than the low momentum, so you're really getting paid by higher momentum. we thing that some of these names will continue to improve. jonathan: we've got a little bit of a problem with your line. if we carry on breaking up, i will break in, so bear with me. how does that factor into what your call is right now over the last month, we had a big snapback and the nasdaq 100. christopher: all of the nasdaq 100 snapback means to us is that rates have gone down. the nasdaq is now more

interest-rate sensitive than utilities, so as rates go down, the nasdaq rallies. at the end of the day, but we think is growth is going to be abundant. you want to stay away from high-growth companies. you want more cyclicality. you want exposure to the consumer. all this is is an opportunity to reposition the book. lisa: let's talk about the low rate environment giving a boost to big tech. is the implication that you don't think it can last, as we see the labor shortages play out in wage increases, that it is unsustainable to see 10 year yields at 1.65%? christopher: i think that is spot on. we are seeing inflation for the first time. we are seeing companies repriced. we are seeing demand outstrip supply. you are going to see rates move higher. the economy is about to accelerate, and i don't think you can sustain 1.65% on the 10 year. i think we have way too much accommodation on the table, and we will find out quickly that

inflation is going to ratchet higher. jonathan: inflation is going to ratchet higher. two months, three months, four months? what kind of time horizon are you talking about? christopher: i would say in the next three to six months, and you're already beginning to see it. we look at company earnings. they are talking about prices sticking, and they will continue to do that because there are kinks in the supply chain. demand in many cases is beginning to outstrip supply. jonathan: so i question, chris. who's got the pricing power? where do you want to play that story? christopher: you see it in chemicals, industrials, and now i think more on the leisure and travel and on the consumer side. that is where i think it is going to show up because a lot of capacity has come out on the consumer side, especially along labor and travel -- along leisure and travel. tom: the russell 2000 up 0.8%, and the others fall behind. i know it is just one mornings activity. the character of momentum here, is it a bet on revenue growth

that is just shockingly wonderful, or a bet down the income statement? christopher: what we have seen with momentum is momentum has a line with value and cyclicality, so really -- tom: amazon is a cyclical investment? [laughter] christopher: amazon is actually -- amazon has actually underperformed. what you are finding it a lot more banks, industrials, more value type companies, more cyclical type companies then you will see for a lot of the tech companies. a lot of the tech companies will continue to fall out of that moment in basket. lisa: whenever going to see the inflation you talked about? i know jon was trying to pin you down on a timeframe, but when do we start seeing the reality we are pricing out of hope or face? -- hope or faith? christopher: we are already seeing price inflation with a lot of companies across and us trills and chemicals.

demand we think will be exceptionally strong, so we will see it over the next several months. we are beginning to see it already, and we think it just begins to accelerate. lisa: just to cut in, then why is it that the bid into treasuries has just gotten stronger? why is it that people are dismissing this? christopher: for a long time, what we are looking at when the vaccine was beginning to roll out, rates didn't move. here, the other thing to think about is rates don't go in a straight line. nothing goes in a straight line. we pulled back. that is natural. you usually do a little consolidation, and now i think we are setting up for another move higher. so this is not unexpected at this point in time. we are going to get earnings very shortly, and we will find out quickly who has pricing power and who doesn't. jonathan: next tuesday, inflation in america. chris harvey, wells fargo securities head of equity strategy. let's put the saloon more simple

he. how long can you sit here and say it is transitory? i think that is the stress test right now. i think by definition you can always say it is transitory to some degree. but for the federal reserve, how long can they say it is transitory if we keep seeing numbers in the high twos, maybe into the threes. tom: i hadn't heard transitory for the seven or eight days you were gone, and now you're back, and i really don't know what is transitory other than stocks won't go down. to me, that is a great observation here. boom economy, with some extending it out, and with that boom economy, stocks are bid. lisa: one thing that is not transitory is your ribbing jon about his sabbatical, and i don't think that will ever be transitory. it is a permanent feature of this show. tom: we didn't have enough soccer talk. i mean, jon, will newcastle be relegated? i think it is 50-50, isn't it? jonathan: that is a big

conversation for ian shepherdson when he comes back on. we will ask him. he is a season-ticket holder of newcastle tom: it is really put of newcastle. tom: it is really important. lisa:lisa: i was going to weigh in on inflation. [laughter] you were asking about the transitory aspect. the key issue, the transitory issue of our soccer talk, and the idea that when we get wages start to truly increase and there are meaningful increases, that perhaps is the threshold the fed will have a hard time ignoring. jonathan: i got an email from a terminal subscriber over the last week that said please come back and get this show back on the rails. tom: what did mike say after that? [laughter] jonathan: do you think that i can actually make a difference here? here we are, very much not on the rails. from new york city this morning, good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. tom, i did not miss that comment. [laughter] equities of 15 on the s&p. tom: he said, where's the guy

with the british accent? [laughter] jonathan: let's not get into what mike said. in the bond market, yields come in a couple of basis points on tens. we are off the lows. big breath. let's start again. your equity market looking good. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. president joe biden today will announce he is taking executive action to tighten gun restrictions. one of those actions will be aimed at so-called ghost gun's. people buy kits that contain the components to build guns in as little as 30 minutes. they are called ghost gun's because they don't have serial numbers, so they can't be traced by the police. president biden says passing his 2.2 trillion dollar inference structure is urgently needed to keep the u.s. competitive with china. the president called the package the biggest jobs investment since world war ii. republicans have a number of

addictions, one of them being that corporate taxes would be raised to pay for the bill. bloomberg has learned the u.s. has come out with a new proposal to try to reach a deal on global taxation. the plan says countries should be able to tax more corporate profits based on revenues within their own borders. the u.s. has resisted suggestions from other countries to limit the rules to digital businesses like google and amazon. the british government says it remains on course to meet its vaccination targets. authorities moved quickly to address safety concerns that the astrazeneca vaccine was effectively ruled out for people under 30. 79 people amongst the 20 million in britain that have got the shot have suffered from rare blood clots. billionaire investor peter thiel appears to have had a change of heart toward cryptocurrencies, appearing at a virtual event. he will call bitcoin a financial weapon that could threaten the dollar.

he is a major investor in ritual currency futures. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> at this point in time, the principal of a global mom tax

rate -- of a global minimum tax rate, we do have apprehensions about it. if we can get an agreement that brings stability, that brings predict ability, that is something that is also very beneficial to small economies. jonathan: the irish finance minister pascal donah -- paschal donohoe. from new york city this morning, good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your price action going into initial jobless claims in america, 12 minutes away, equities positive 13 on the s&p. we had some way to all-time highs on the close yesterday, up another 0.3%. the nasdaq 100 up 0.8%. yields off the lows of the session, off by about a basis point or two on the day, 1.6598%. in foreign, euro-dollar stable. unchanged at the moment,

$1.1874. tom: sometimes you get lucky at "bloomberg surveillance." we are always trying to book you the smartest conversations we can. with julie norman of the university college london, we can do that. we could go to her academic wheels out -- academic wheelhouse. we have seen the upset in jordan over the last 10 days. you are definitive on this. were you surprised at the royal tantrum in jordan? julie: well, this has been an internal family feud that has been brewing for quite a while, so the fact that it happened i don't think is a big surprise. the fact that it happened when it did and how it did i think came as a bit of a surprise. i think we all breathe a side of relief -- a sigh of relief that the suez was reopened last week. it looks like things have stabilized as much as they can for the moment. tom: are civics 101, jordan is

in a pit with israel and the greater middle east. is turkey part of your middle east study, or are they still tangential and removed? julie: i think turkey is always a piece of the puzzle for sure, but right now turkey's politics are a little bit different than the arab world, certainly in terms of the orientation around israel. tom: we see that with lira today , struggling still. let us get back on track and look at the infrastructure of america. maybe it is not the royal tantrums of jordan, but the royal tantrum of the middle as were presented by joe manchin is tangible. what is your take on the strength of power of the middle in american politics? julie: what you said is exactly right. in terms of the hill, and terms of politicians, the middle is very weak. it is very small. it seems to be quite concentrated in manchin

himself for the democrats right now. but it is important to note that a lot of the policies the biden adminstration has been rolling out so far are really popular across a lot of the american public. so i think when we talk about the middle, there's the politician middle, but also the american public middle. a lot of these policies are speaking to working americans from both parties, and it is interesting to see how that sort of populist base metal is may be getting -- base middle is may be getting a bit of grounding with policy under biden. jonathan: when we have these conversations about whether an administration has a mandate to do what they are doing, can you help us explore that a little further, what people mean by that and whether we can say this particular administration has a mandate to do these big things it is looking to do? julie: usually when we talk about a mandate, there is a sense that there was enough of a popular will, a popular vote behind that candidate or person

coming into office to push through some big legislation. so democrats are of course saying they have a strong mandate with biden in both the popular vote and electoral vote win. that said, as we know, the country is very divided, and whatever policy biden does put forward, you don't want to be discounting or undercutting nine or devote is that either. i think -- undercutting minority voters in that either. i think they need to be cautious that yes, biden won the election, but he came in trying to be a president for all americans, and trying to get that message of unity moving forward, even if we don't see it happening politically. lisa: in your historical view, what is your sense of how politically deadly it is to raise taxes? julie: i think it would be politically deadly if biden reneged on his commitment to not raise taxes on the middle class. in terms of corporate taxes, on the hill it is going to be very

unpopular. we know that most republicans will not support this bill in general, but especially with this tax hike. however, with that said, pulling said that about 64% of americans did support a tax hike on corporations and large businesses, so that peace in itself does not poll badly among the american public, but it will create that political divide that will be hard to overcome with republicans and some within his own party. jonathan: what do you make of the language this at adminstration is using against corporations and wealthy individuals? he will say this is not about getting payback on certain businesses or individuals, but at the same time saying the middle class is being fleeced. do you think it is divisive? julie: it has the potential to be interpreted that way. i think biden does best when he focuses on speaking about and to american workers, and the cost to workers, rather than companies and corporations. some of that language obviously is a bit abrasive to the right.

i think it is better for biden when he speaks from his working-class roots to that population rather than trying to frame himself as anti-corporatist or something like that. jonathan: thank you for that. tom, you mentioned that language earlier, the middle class is somehow being fleeced, and we could discuss that for months and months to come. it is interesting to compare and contrast the approach to nine months ago, when the governor of new york was practically begging for wealthy individuals to come back to new york city, to return. now the language has shifted very quickly. tom: and we have to see if the action follows the language. in all of my conversations, this centers around president trump effort to punish the blue states with the acclaimed salt tax. that seems to be the emotional third rail, at least in the

tri-state area. lisa: just to go back to this rhetoric from president biden, we are not just hearing that from across -- from democrats. we heard that from jamie dimon and his 60 page letter that you took the day off to read. he was talking about the rise of populism if you don't have a consistent and competent government. not only are the lowest income americans lagging behind when it comes to wage increases, but they are bearing the brunt of inflationary pressures that we have seen in terms of food prices going up, gas prices going up. there is still a lot of suffering out there, and the middle class is getting crimped because of the pandemic even more so, so you are dealing with a reality that you have to address, and that perhaps is where the rhetoric is headed. jonathan: that needs to be addressed, but the rhetoric can be adapted. don't have to say that someone is fleeced, to imply that someone has somehow stolen from them. lisa: fair, but i thing it is in

recognition of what a lot of people are feeling. jonathan: absolutely. we are all on the same page about that. coming up, michelle meyer of bank of america on the spending ahead, just to track what is actually happening right here, right now in the u.s. economy. this is bloomberg. ♪

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jonathan: let's get straight to it. good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. claims data in america. equities at record highs. on the nasdaq up .8%. your data is in. here is michael mckee. michael: another surprise to the upside for jobless claims. 744,000 last week. that is up from 719,000. that is the unrevised number. continuing claims that 734,000, little bit higher than anticipated. a little bit lower than they were last week. right now the numbers still point to a job market that is weak.

at the risk of talking against my own book, i wonder how much these numbers mean anymore? they were the key number for weeks and weeks as the pandemic went on, but with the numbers so high, in contrast to the jobs creation numbers, i wonder whether they have that much impact anymore? tom: what is the difference, i say this flatlining from october 20 of last year. we have basically flatlined at 700,000. what does that signal to you given the jobs report we have just witnessed. michael: the jolts data is showing more than 7 million jobs available. that is two months old but it does suggest there are openings. we go back to the old question of whether or not people are qualified for the jobs that are open. we went up 16,000. what happened last week that caused an additional 16,000 initial jobless claims to be filed?

nothing i could see. last week we had the jobs report with revisions over one million jobs. you have to wonder at this point whether the jobless claims numbers are losing their utility and giving us much more of a picture that the job market still has to heal. lisa: this is what i was expecting. that the numbers would be noisy. the degree to noisy nest is surprising. can you give me a sense of how much of an aberration these numbers are. is there any other data that confirms ongoing weakness to the degree we see in the initial jobless claims? michael: not seeing anything like that in other indicators. the sentiment indicators show strong hiring. we are seeing that in the regional indicators. there is nothing that tells us we will be continuing to lose a lot of jobs. what analysts and experts say is that what we are seeing is

people who got jobless claims benefits went back to work and then got laid off again for a while, or they filed, they got claims and they fell off because they did not continue to apply every week. they get double counting. there huge instances of fraud, the states say. we know the economy is starting to heal and jobs are starting to come back. this is telling you the opposite, but it is the only indicator doing so. jonathan: the wrong kind of upside supplies. market reaction muted. bonds in a little bit. 1.65 on the 10 year. up one third of 1% on the s&p. euro-dollar up about .1%. let's finish with this. this will get more discussion. there is an argument that may be the level of entitlements, it is a disincentive to take some of

those job openings. where do you stand on that debate and what does that debate sound like in america? michael: we are starting to get academic research that points to the direction of it not really being a problem. it may in some cases affect. in's number has gone down, the initial top up to the jobless claims has gone down from 600 to 300, especially -- there is less incentive for people to stay on the sidelines, especially because they know in september that will go away. it is less of a problem that people have made it out to be. tom: thank you so much to be -- thank you so much. michael mckee will be looking at jerome powell comments near the noon hour today. right now michelle meyer with us from bank of america. outstanding on the pulse of the american economy. i want to collate in all of the bank of america economic research. do you look at it as a linear

path forward in the coming quarters or coming years or is there an accelerant to all of this good news? michelle: it has been somewhat hump-like in that we are looking at explosion of growth and that will lead to strong q2 and q3 growth. in q3 still very strong given the handoff for second quarter very lightly -- very likely, 8% growth. then we returned to mid single-digit oath rate. what is important when you are looking at growth rate is to think about the starting point. right now we have growth to be made up for from the covid shop. a bounce now, the data we are seeing is still quite reasonable especially given all the stimulus and other support the economy.

there is still catch-up happening and in correcting for the covid shock and returning to the trend levels you have seen previously. once we close the output gap then you are running above. the question is how much above will we run and how overheated will the economy become? jonathan: you've gotten the data debt on in the last couple of months. retail right on the button. claims the wrong kind of upside surprise. payrolls on friday, we -- you are looking for 1 million and we got north of 900,000. what are you looking at that is a decent guide to what kind of numbers the economy is churning out? michelle: our team has been focused on high-frequency data sources. heavy consumer of all kinds of data. that has helped us in the sense of being able to gauge some of these monthly specifics and get a good sense of the direction of the surprised. for jobs, claims are one

indicator but only one. we look at different survey measures. we also look at measures of actual demand. how much people are spending, how much they are moving, and all of that filters in to an estimate at the end of the day. lisa: given the high-frequency focus and your ability to pinpoint where we are, what is the labor market dynamic? we are hearing about labor market shortages in the service sectors. are you expecting more wage pressures the street currently agrees on? michelle: not necessarily. on the wage side you could see temporary increases in wages, but i do not anticipate a big and sustainable move higher at this point in time because of where the labor force participation rate is. it is only partially recovered. i imagine the labor supply will be picking up meaningfully once

we get to the point where a larger share of the population returns to work, especially in the leisure sectors. when schools are properly reopened and you can go back out into the workforce, and when the job opportunities are clearly there, we still have more to do in terms of labor demand, particularly in those leisure sectors. in the short term there could be friction and you will see wage increases, but in the next year or so there is still a lot of labor supply that will come into the economy and mitigate some of the upside. tom: when we are doing one million a month or whatever we will do in jobs, what do the deciles of the nation look like? we clearly have a haves housing market, but what is the tenths of our population break up the labor economy? michelle: the cycle has been dubbed the case shaped recovery

-- the k shaped recovery. enou look at the top third of the income distribution, jobs returns are pretty covid levels within a few months of the pandemic, the summer of last year. the middle income tier normalize the level of jobs by the fall of last year. that bottom one third of the income distribution, the level of jobs is still considerably below where we were prior to covid. when you think about the amount of makeup that has to be done or catching up in the sense of getting the economy back to normal, it is heavily concentrated among the lower income population. that is where policymakers are focused. jonathan: that is where the hard work begins. great to catch up. stellar work the last couple of weeks. michelle meyer, bank of america security head of u.s. economics. all-time highs in the s&p 500. the nasdaq up .8%.

treasury yields in a couple of basis points. 1.65. the wrong kind of upside surprise on claims, but michael mckee nailed it right this is the only data point going in this direction. everything else is looking fantastic. tom: claims is an asymmetric number and it is different from the jobs report we will see in april. we will see that the first week of may. what i would suggest is in the last two or three days, quietly we have lifted your there has not been -- we have lifted. there has not been a lot of uproar in the close. i would focus on the levels we are at. will we see 4100 on spx? jonathan: let's talk about the nasdaq. we have had a move of 10% or 11% off the low of the year from a month ago. a big snap back. lisa: a lot is on the heels of lower benchmark yields. this is the tension in markets.

the idea you have the acceleration of the u.s. economy. it is not going to be a long-lasting type of phenomenon. this is the issue of the frictions creating some of the deflationary pressure that will go away that we are hearing about from michelle meyer. i do not know the answer to this. when do we start to see the transitory question answered? that will fade into the adamic -- into the dynamic of the stock market. jonathan: april 13 you get a cpi print around 2.5%. the debate will continue. likewise may and june. then it gets interesting. for how long can you say it is transitory? coming up in the next hour -- lisa: dripping with sarcasm. jonathan: did that sound disingenuous? tom: what is disingenuous?

that is a british word. jonathan: is great to be back. tom: do something about this. jonathan: is so good to leave. i am looking forward to getting to 9:00. equity futures up 12 on the s&p. all-time highs. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i am ritika gupta. the key democrat just made getting joe biden's agenda through the senate more difficult. senator joe manchin says he opposes dropping the filibuster ending under circumstances, writing in the washington post, he says the ruler requires 60 votes is a critical tool to less popular states. the white house is considering

whether to double the previous commitment to got greenhouse emissions. the biden administration may pledge to reduce emissions by 50% or more by the end of the decade. that would require drastic changes in power, transportation, and other sectors. eight move in singapore. -- a move in singapore. in a letter, the prime minister said the pandemic means he is too old to be prime minister when the crisis is over. he expressed his intention to step down the next year, when he turned 70. twitter has talked about buying clubhouse, the audio-based social network. bloomberg has learned the company has discussed a potential valuation of $4 billion discussions are no longer going on and it is unclear why they stalled. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg.

♪

>> we provide clear and compelling change for

accelerating vaccinations everywhere. the world economy is going to be $9 trillion richer between now and 2025 if vaccinations are accelerated. tom: the managing director of the international monetary fund. usually with francine lacqua and myself in washington. kristalina georgieva and david malpass on the same page. the distribution of resources from the successful developed pandemic economies to the third world, extremely important right now. there is a blue book. there is a green book, which wall street reads on financial stability. quietly there is the must-read of the imf. that is the fiscal book, the purple book. the director of fiscal affairs, vidor gaspar joins us on the definitive read.

your theme is simple. you want a fair shot for all. if we have a modest or substantial fiscal policy, how do we guarantee it diffuses into a system for all? vitor: for all is the theme of the monitor as you point out. i would say the fair shot theme allows us to stress three different points. the first one is vaccination may be the highest return global public project ever identified. that was exactly what the managing director of the imf was stressing a moment ago in your quote. in accelerated pace of vaccination that gives a fair shot to everyone, independently of the country where the person

happens to live. do you have a vaccine shot in the arm -- to have a vaccine shot in the arm would make of global economy baker by 9 trillion accumulated by 2025. therefore, the investment in vaccination has a tremendous return. the second aspect of the shot talks exactly to your question. if we look at the blog we put out at the time of the release of the fiscal monitor yesterday, you see fiscal actions that were put in place to a total of $16 trillion up to now, are very unevenly distributed around the

world. most of the action takes place in -- emerging markets have done significantly last. low income developing countries less still. also importantly, advanced economies are expected to persist in fiscal support for longer and are now projected to recover stronger. that opens the possibility of a great divergence as mentioned by gita gopinath. policies must be in place to avoid the great divergence. chapter two of the fiscal monitor calls for a fair shot at success for all. a fair shot that starts from the realization that inequality pretty covid-19 was high in many places of the world.

pre-existing inequalities made covid-19 worse, and in turn covid-19 made inequalities worse. that does threaten a vicious spiral of inequality and inequality consequences. the fiscal monitor advises stronger redistributive policies but also universal access to fundamental public services like health, education, and social security. lisa: a lot of people would agree with this. most people would be on the same page with these overall ideas. the question is how you get there. in your analysis of $16 trillion of fiscal stimulus, what have been the most effective types of spending to contract the gap between the wealthy and the

poor? not just vaccinations, but in an ongoing nonpandemic economy? vitor: if you look at the pandemic and you look at 2020, where we have a lot of information, we do see the priorities everywhere in the world for all groups were to enable the health system to combat covid-19, and then extend emergency lifelines to households and firms made vulnerable by the pandemic. those interventions were extremely effective. we estimate that without fiscal support, the contraction of economic activity in 2020 would have been three times worse. that would be a fall on the scale of the great impression. -- the great depression. that was averted and shows the power of fiscal policy.

we also document that countries that had easier access to financing, that had offers, were able to do more -- that had buffers were able to do more and persist for longer. that is something that determines economic development going forward. some public funny -- sound public finances are crucial to use the power. tom: we are out of time. thank you so much for joining us. the imf director of fiscal affairs as united states launches $2 trillion. i am fascinated by how american fiscal policy diffuses through the global system. i do not have a clue. lisa: it diffuses to asia if you take a look at the trade deficit we saw yesterday. this idea we have an unprecedented trade deficit as the fiscal dollars put the

households in america, because the imports in the united states have been robust. tom: the twin deficit has been my chart of the year two of last four years. where it was the last two times is nothing like where it is now. lisa: how much can those dollars go to pumping up the entire economy, or is this so select in terms of which economies are exporting the goods needed by the u.s. it does not get the job done when it comes to global growth? tom: it is less exports and more imports. that is where you get the balance. i guess we are on the edge of futures up 11. lisa: at the edge of open. at the edge of awake. at the edge of a deer. tom: we are not trying to open at 8:50 5 wall st time. the market is extraordinary. lisa: it is an extraordinary boring week. tom: are you doing the 9:00? lisa: i think jon ferro is back

to his own property. there was a story about burnout. that is maybe what we are feeling in the low trading volumes this week. tom: i thought you were talking about john. lisa: [laughter] tom: this is bloomberg. good morning on radio, on television. ♪

♪ jonathan: another all-time high.

from york city for our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. futures up on the s&p 500. we begin with the big issue. cracks emerging in the president's infrastructure push. >> transportation, roads, bridges, airports. >> there is still a lot of question marks. >> may be a third of three chili dollars is infrastructure your -- of $3 trillion is actually infrastructure. >> it will take ages. >> who knows what is going to happen? >> is a question of how you pay for it. >> is less about the height and the tax rate. >> lots of changes to how taxes are done on an international side. >> there is minimum global tax rate in the proposition.