get it and get it now. your body will thank you. (announcer) find out more at aerotrainer.com. that's aerotrainer.com. manus: from bloomberg's middle east headquarters in dubai, i manus cranny, with annmarie hordern alongside me at london hq. the u.k.'s lockdown eases amid the lowest covid cases since september. all shops in england can open today. alibaba shares -- antitrust probe ends.

less severe than many feared. jay powell says the u.s. economy is at an inflection point but a resurgence of covid-19 remains the main risk. 6:00 a.m. in the city of london and england is reopening for business. annmarie hordern is excited. this sunday is ahead of the pack. 44%. we will have protection from covid and that puts the united kingdom in the position ahead of the americans and europeans for now. annmarie: it certainly does. there is a sense of euphoria in london just because we have been dealing with months of not being able to go out and see friends, not being able to get the simplest things like a haircut. it's a partial reopening. it is a really big deal, especially when you look at what is going on in the rest of europe that is still dealing

with infections rising and restrictions. manus: absolutely. the french are catching up. the germans doubled the pace of their vaccine rollout. in euro and sterling, the euro is whipping it around, the best week since september of last year, so we are seeing markets move higher, aren't we? annmarie: the pound is subdued. the trade is now starting to get a bit of reversal. not so good for me. when you visit the u.k., it will be very helpful for you. manus: now we can go and have lunch and breakfast tomorrow. the whole of the u.k. probably rejoicing at the easing of those restrictions. let's get to the heart of retail. we are going to a department store outside oxford street. central london, the heart of the action. just the context of what is happening for retail, something like 17.5 thousand stores closed and huge waves of job losses.

what exactly is reopening today? good day. >> i am here on oxford street, one of the most iconic shopping streets in the u.k., in front of a john lewis store, one of the nation's best known and best loved retail names. many other big stores have their flagships in this particular area. stage two of the u.k.'s reopening and perhaps the most hotly anticipated not least because we can start meeting in larger groups. we are getting the reopening of things like nonessential retail. many stores we have already seen preparing this morning to open their doors a little bit later this morning but we will also see the likes of hairdressers, beauty salons. annmarie talking about none of us being able to get a haircut for many months as well in bars and restaurants will be able to open for outdoor services as well today. annmarie: full disclosure, i

booked my nail appointment and i'm getting lunch with a friend outside today so i'm one of the people whose very excited. this has come at a great cost for retailers. how much do they need to make up given the cost of the pandemic? >> you are absolutely right. it comes at a huge cost to retailers. retail may be the worst affected industry. the british retail authority and -- consortium had $30 billion -- 30 billion pounds. you can tell i worked in the u.s. for a number of years. 17.5 thousand chainstore outlets closed as we walked up and down the street today. many also preparing to reopen and some that are permanently shattered and some of the big names -- during the pandemic. the flagship store on oxford street as well. it is prepared to reopen its flagship today.

16 of its stores will never reopen. that is one third of its -- so tough decisions for retailers. while they may have made up some of their lost sales by focusing on line it's those in-store sales that has caused struggles. when you look at nonfood based indoor sales, 30% down from one year ago. annmarie: emma chandra, thank you so much. we are reporting from oxford street. we are seeing optimism and excitement in london and england about the reopening. we are not seeing that across global equity markets. futures across-the-board are in the red even though we have another all-time high in europe and the united states on friday. i brought up china. we are down one point 5%. alibaba is rallying. 1.5 6% on the 10-year. and then the pound, 136.73, down

.25%. the question manus brought up earlier, the euro doing well but not so much the pound. warning us now to break this all down is the senior currency strategy for cba europe. let's start there. is that hot trade we saw early on this year and towards the end of last year, is that starting to? --to lose favor? >> the pound faces a little bit of headwind against the dollar for the pound. it faces headwinds because of nominal bond yield differentials between the u.s. and the u.k. and then against the euro, it faces short-term headwinds because it's relatively overvalued relative to the euro but beyond this near-term, i

think the u.k. economy had to coin a beautiful phrase from the chief economist of the bank of england, saying the u.k. economy is at risk of a risk roaring recovery starting probably in the third quarter of this year. you have plenty of pent-up savings that could boost consumer spending. labor market flack is diminishing at a rather encouraging pace. leading indicator night the composite tmi is consistent with a solid recovery for economic activity. all of this to me suggests the pound against the dollar should bottom out. from a valuation perspective against the u.s. dollar, it's very cheap. fundamental equilibrium. i don't think we will get to 155 but it's just to give you an idea of how undervalued the

pound is against the dollar. up towards revision against the u.s. dollar. manus: that is going to bring music to annmarie's ears. good to see you. we love to go to extremes, don't we? negative interest-rate policy. that is what was coming down the track. we have this whole taper debate and exit from stimulus in the u.s. and that is what has gripped the dollar and rates market. when do we taper discussions or qe in the u.k.? elias: that's another thing, another positive for the pound. there's is no talk about the bank of england implementing or introducing new asset purchases when the program is scheduled to end in november.

the reason i say this is the bank of england did not appear to be too concerned about the pickup in gilt yields, in 10 year government bond yields in the u.k. like i said, and contracts, you look at the ecb and they are quite concerned with destabilizing pickup and european bond yields so bottom line is the rest of the bank of england introduces a new bond purchase program and when it expires in november, i think it is still low and that is another positive for the pound mostly against the euro because that means the bank of england's balance sheet will not expand at a faster pace than that of the ecb so that's another reason i'm constructive on the pound against the euro. annmarie: we have this cfo survey and concerns about inflation and asset price bubbles increase sharply. where do you see inflation going

in the u.k. as we have a reopening of businesses starting today? elias: in the near term, we could see a bit of a boost to u.k. inflation, but because there is so much slack left in the u.k. economy, the level of gdp still has not even gotten back to its pre-covert levels but there's also a lot of slack in the labor markets with the unemployment rate significantly well above the natural rate of unemployment here in the u.k., so that will continue to contain wage pressures in the u.k. and from a -- beyond the near term, inflation pressures and the u.k. will remain contained and it's unlikely to lead the bank to preemptively normalize policy so monetary policy has scope here in the u.k. to remain very loose for a long time. manus: perhaps we will get a little bit ahead of ourselves. in terms of the reopening. the excitement.

europe's senior currency strategists. our guest host this morning. let's get to laura wright in london hq. laura: the u.s. secretary of state is warning china against encroaching on taiwan. in an interview with nbc news, antony blinken raised concerns about the aggressive actions in the taiwan strait, adding the u.s. stands by its commitment to ensure the islands self-defense. blinken -- secrecy around covid-19. iran says an incident at the largest uranium enrichment site is an active nuclear terrorism. it wants to revive the landmark 2015 deal. iran did not elaborate. in the past, it largely blamed israel. germany's conservative -- chancellor angela merkel. the leader is joining the race,

taking on the head of the cdu. they both formally declared their bid yesterday. leaders are meeting to set up the next steps. it is the party of the cdu. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. manus, and murray -- manus. annmarie: shares surge. the chinese tech giant saint regulators. -- thanked regulators. the latest story, coming up next from hong kong. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪

>> good morning.

6:14, city of london. i am annmarie hordern alongside manus cranny in dubai. hong kong received a record 2.8 billion dollar antitrust fine, less than many were expecting. the tech giant responded by thanking regulators. it said alibaba would not have achieved growth without sound government regulation and service. some thing i don't think we would see with the u.s. government in terms of facebook or any other tech giant. let's have more with stephen engle in hong kong. this looks like a sigh of relief for investors, doesn't it? we are surging when we look at alibaba and hong kong. >> worst-case scenario, much worse. they could have been forced to divest some of their purchases and key assets. there could have been some breakup. keep in mind, we don't have closure or clarity on ant group which got kicked off in late

october and early november when regulators scrapped that big mega listing, 35 billion dollars plus in shanghai and hong kong, because of, you know, irregularities. we don't have that clarity yet. this is more on e-commerce monopolistic behaviors by alibaba, the parent company. the cofounder and vice chairman says, you know, we are eager to move on beyond this. they are going to get that big slap on the wrist, $2.8 billion. it equates to 4% of 2019 domestic revenue and could have been worse. a chinese law would have allowed upwards of 10% of domestic revenue so it was, you know, more than -- less than half of that. that's good news. that's why the stock is surging and because this is not a recurring fine, this is a one-off fine of $2.8 billion that will be reflected in the current quarter in the march quarter and they move on. manus: they move on.

the question is how do they make reparation? what is next for alibaba? perhaps earlier than we are all thinking. that seems to be a little bit of hope. stephen: that's probably wishful thinking because the rectification for ant have not been made. the chinese authorities want to crack down on the unchecked lending, micro lending, that all the risk went on to the state banks and alibaba originated only about 2% of those loans through ant, through its lending platforms. they need to rectify that and how all the data is going to be collected and potentially shared among the other platforms including tencent. you mentioned at the top where alibaba came out and saying to the regulatory environment. alibaba has been really quiet over these last four months whereas tencent, which might be the next shoe to drop, they have

been right out in front. they came out. the president as well as -- a few weeks ago, they were saying compliance is our lifeline. they see that compliance is the way forward, unlike facebook or google or others in the west, but then they keep going the way they have been going. >> at the end of the day -- i was going to say, is this the harbinger of things to come for all the other chinese tech firms? stephen: absolutely because it is a new regulatory environment. it doesn't mean there's going to be for the pike. there is a long list of rectification's. they have to stop the practice of making merchants choose which e-commerce platform they are going to go with. alibaba is the biggest one and has the farthest reach. they have to stop these anticompetitive behaviors. with ant, to have to reach an

agreement with the government on how the lending and simtech arms are going to comply with banking regulation, not necessarily technology regulation. this is just the beginning. trust me on this one. manus: i'm sure you can stay later on another occasion. great reporting on this. the stock is up 8.5%. stephen engle, our chief north asia correspondent covering the alibaba breaking news. coming up, why the u.s. fed chair says americans economy is at an inflection point. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> what we are seeing now is an economy that seems to be at an inflection point and that's because of widespread vaccination and strong fiscal support, strong monetary policies for -- policy support. we feel like job creation will come in much more quickly so the principal risk to our economy right now really is that the disease would spread again. manus: jerome powell explaining why he thinks the u.s. economy is at an inflection point. bloomberg spoke exclusively to the federal reserve vice chair, richard clarida, who explained why he sees inflation moving back above 2% this year. >> because of the nature of the pandemic shock a year ago, as we move through 2021 on a year-over-year basis, headline inflation is going to move about 2% because we are going to be comparing this year's prices to

last year's collapsing prices. we expect in our baseline most of that to be transitory and for inflation to return later this year to around 2%. manus: cba europe senior currency strategist is still with us. everyone is telling me that it's going to be transitory and i look at research and i want to get a sense from you in regards to inflation. they say we are in a psychotic state and that we have a treasury market which has inflationary psychosis and that we will rollover. is the risk to lower rates mean lower dollar in the medium-term? elias: the risk, you are right. the risk is that we see a downward adjustment to u.s. interest rate expectations. closer to the fomc and the feds

dovish or altered of us -- ultra dovish guidance. this downward adjustment to u.s. rate expectations will take a lot of that upside momentum in the u.s. dollar away. meanwhile, again, because the fed has basically committed to keep interest rates ultra low for the next couple of years, well, that means real yields in the u.s. will remain ultra-negative and that's why i don't believe the u.s. dollar will see significant upside momentum. it will remain firm in the near term because of widening u.s. bond yield spreads with the rest of the g10. given the feds commitment for auto loose monetary policy settings for 2023, i think upside momentum from here is going to be limited and ultimately, the fundamental downtrend in the u.s. dollar will resume. annmarie: we are going to get

the cpi numbers tomorrow. everyone has been talking about the transitory inflation expectation. but shouldn't the market be taking more into account that this is all massive base effects in play? elias: i think markets will certainly -- if you look at inflation expectations in the u.s., yes, they have risen significantly in the last year, but they have been kind of sticky around 2%. the market is realizing there's a lot of base effect here influencing headline cpi inflation. in terms of the near-term, what it means in the near term for the u.s. dollar, well, it means that real yields, even for base effect, headline inflation at 2.5%, which is projected to be the case in the next few months. that means real yields in the u.s. are going to turn even more negative and that's why i think

upside momentum for the dollar is very limited. manus: where is your haven currency? what is your haven currency for 2021? elias: well, i think the big theme is still the reflation theme. i still think we are in the sweet spot of this economic cycle. not only is economic activity improving but inflation is contained meaning settings will remain very loose for a very long time so i think a big sign of the commodity sensitive currency, they will continue to outperform the rest of this year. canadian dollars, big fan of the currency, not just because of the reflation theme, but also the balance of payments is quite encouraging. from a valuation perspective, they look quite attractive. i would like to accumulate the

commodities not just against the dollar, but also against the euro. annmarie: does this mean you are a believer in the super cycle? elias: no, not at this stage. more of the cyclical play on the commodities complex. i think for the super cycle commodity story to play out, we really need to see india consumer spending move significantly well above where it is right now. this is their base case scenario right now. annmarie: elias maddad, cba europe senior currency strategist, thank you so much for joining us this morning. he likes the commodity fx but not a believer just yet in the super cycle. after 100 days of lockdown, many shops reopened today. if you have not heard, you heard it here. how strong with the economic rebound be in the second quarter?

that discussion, coming up next. this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> good morning. from bloomberg's european headquarters, i am annmarie hordern with dennis cranny from dubai and this is "daybreak europe." here is what you need to know. the u.k.'s lockdown eases amid the lowest covid cases since september. all shops in england can open today. alibaba shares jump as an antitrust probe ends at 2.8 billion dollars. less severe than many people feared.

the u.s. economy is at an inflection point. the resurgence of covid-19 remains the main risk. and us, good morning to you. when you look across global equities, there is the worry about covid-19 cases but that is not the case in london or the rest of england. i feel like you might be having a little bit of fomo about how excited we are about may be going and getting a drink or lunch or mail or hair down. that is what is happening today and it's a big milestone in the steps to reopening fully. manus: it is a huge milestone. this time, it's a reopening with over 40% of the population having some form of protection and the rollout of the vaccine has, one could say on a global basis, to be applauded despite the mishandling of covid but this time, you reopened, you can go to a shop, bar, all the various things on maslow's hierarchy of needs. what is on the hierarchy of

needs of annmarie hordern, first of all? food or other things? annmarie: food. i want to see some friends but i booked all my appointments of course. manus: therein lies the point. germany and france are catching up and this is perhaps the mother of all repricing's. that is may be is in store. he likes sterling. undervalued. there is still mileage in that according to cba, isn't there? annmarie: i moved here almost seven years ago. the pound was trading in the one 70's. -- 170s. but manus, one thing, and you bring up an important point about france and germany. the u.k. is way ahead when it comes to one inoculation, that first dose. when you look at citizens who are fully vaccinated, germany, france, they are catching up to the united kingdom, so that is the good news of this story, but

let's get more to the london story specifically. joining us from outside the department store on oxford street in central london, a place i might visit later today is emma chandra. give us a sense of what is reopening today and what we can expect. emma: if you are heading down here, put on an extra layer. it's chilly out here this morning which might be a bit of a concern for all of those restaurants which are also allowed to reopen today but for outdoor service only. as you mentioned, a lot of enthusiasm and pent-up demand for being able to socialize and spend money again. perhaps they will be very happy. in terms of what else is opening, non-essential retail is a really big one. you can see a number of stores getting ready to reopen once again. i covered to the retail industry for a long time and i get a lot of emails and information from pr's and i had a lot of that over the course of the weekend

with people saying how excited they are to reopen. that ready to reopen. certainly john lewis is a success story. they spent lots of money along with other stores to get themselves ready. you can still see that plexiglass in store. people are still expected to wear masks. able to still feel safe. certainly also the likes of john lewis. we know a third of them will not reopen. the pandemic has permanently shuttered those doors. they decided they will not be able to sustain one third of their fleet as we go into the rest of 2021. manus: good to see you. the street that you are on is emblematic of a global phenomenon and that is that major retail chains have gone under. 67,000 jobs have gone and if i remember oxford street very clearly from top to bottom, it

is quite literally arcadia anonymous and that is the brands owned by philip green and that is emblematic of retail around the world. a lot of these brands have been taken online. emma: you are absolutely right. there is a number of brands, great british high street. oxford is just a little bit behind me. there was a huge flagship which is a big part of the arcadia street. this of course, remember, is the main street of the u.k., particularly across the u.k., and a number of companies and stores and brands that we will not see return in that physical format. many survived online. that big story on the pandemic is the growth of online as everybody moves their shopping habits to online and having everything --

there is some concern as well about what the recovery will be like. bloomberg economics estimating it to be 160 billion pounds. among retailers, people will be ready to spend some of that cash but they want that to be sustained, not just part of the flurry of reopening excitement. the company here, they are the company that looks after oxford street, the west end areas. they are expecting footfall to return to 40% of what it was pre-pandemic so they are looking for support from government in order to be able to build on that and make these places sustainable for the long term. manus: thank you very much, emma chandra, reporting from oxford street, where non-essential retail will begin to reopen. a quick flash of what is going on. alibaba might flying high by 10%. what does that mean for the rest of the text that there -- tech

sector? on the csi 300, the operators are underperforming. 10 year government bond yields. disinflation, not inflation, is your risk. they have run the data going back to 1990. we are in a psychosis of an inflation narrative. our next guest says get ready for 155. the ceo, fiona. we are reopening at home in the united kingdom. the question i have for you is simple. as our last guest said, what kind of riproaring economic recovery do you expect? ? good morning. >> we expect a strong recovery. the least of the risk and inflation being the biggest of the risk. the package in the u.s. and the fact that shops are reopening in

the vaccine rollout has advanced quite well. we see the excitement of people to shop and consume in a period where cash has been quite high, historical high in the different saving accounts of people. we think there will be consumers and inflation from the fact that production has some loopholes. not working necessarily at full power. we see strong growth. as i said, stronger than before the pandemic in 2024. annmarie: manus it did point to what our last guest has to say about the pound. he said it's undervalued. more fair value is 155. do you see more strength coming into sterling? emma: yes, by the fact that you

are advanced in terms of vaccine. compared to other countries in europe, if you look at france and germany, they are in lockdown. there is strong demand for the pound because it is the country that will be able to reopen. compared to other countries in europe. manus: i like what you had to say. the easing in the u.k., the great illustration of heterogeneity across the geopolitical area, that is lacking in europe but they are now playing catch-up in the rollout of the vaccine. this heterogeneity, explain to me how that can further advance u.k. exceptionalism in the same

way we talk around the narrative. u.s. exceptionalism. fiona: the way the u.k. has managed its vaccination was remarkable. coming from a biotech company and giving power to organizing in a centralized way with a lot of pragmatism. in europe, the negotiation was done by technocrats. each nation has its own strategy and you see that at the end, that is satisfactory. annmarie: earnings season is going to kick off. we saw european equities hit a record on friday. what do you want to be exposed to as europe is starting to play catch up on the vaccine rollout? fiona: you want to be exposed to cyclical sectors.

it has been very -- last year because of the lockdowns. you want to profit from currencies which are cyclical. also in dollar, you want to be exposed to commodities. you don't want to be exposed to too much defensive asset because it has a negative asymmetry. we believe bonds will be going up and your corporate credit, not so much. equities cyclicals, commodities, some currencies, bond inflation. manus: the other note i was reading over the weekend, fiona, is about the repricing in the bond markets. vaccination ramps up, reopening roles out, and therefore, reflation trade is underpriced.

bones could rally by some 15 bits to -.15 from -.30. do you see that as a proposition on end underpriced reopening? fiona: i think there is room to go when you see the difference of where the u.s. is. when they yield is going up, whether they yields are going down so you can see the reopening in the reflation are very dependent on the situation. for the moment, it's the race between vaccine and the fact that people get infected more and more and hospitals are under stress. the fact that the bund has been going down shows the difference between the situation in the

u.k. and the u.s. versus germany. annmarie: if we can pick up quickly and end on the u.s., we have a number of options out this week. do you think the bond selloff we saw in the start of the year has come to an end, fiona? fiona: no, we think it will continue because, in fact, as powell said several times, it will let inflation go because it's a way also to get out of that. with inflation and growth going fast, bond yield will grow. it will grow to a certain level where i think it will start to control the yield that it could go from 25 to 50 for 10 years. annmarie: a call on the 10-year. let's get a recap of the first word news this morning with laura wright. laura: the biden administration

is stepping up scrutiny of china for a digitally one. sources tell bloomberg's some sources are concerned the move could start a long-term bid to topple the dollar as the world's dominant reserve currency. the u.s. wants to see how it would be distributed if it could be used to get around sanctions. david cameron has broken his silence over the controversy of his lobbying for green capital, defending his actions, but there are important lessons to be learned. as an advisor to the company, he encouraged officials to give them access to pandemic funds. japan made history. a 29-year-old has become the first japanese man to win the -- one of the four majors in men's gold. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. manus.

manus: thanks. i will pick it up from here. laura wright in london. coming up on the show, jerome powell says the u.s. economy is poised for stronger growth and the coronavirus remains the risk. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> actual progress. we are not looking out forecasts for this purpose but actual progress towards our goals. >> actual progress is not projected progress. >> we don't have to expect it. we have to see it. >> there is no textbook for this. you don't want to be too preemptive but we also don't want to be so reactive that we

are late. >> that is what we are looking for, to see it in the data. >> hard numbers on the labor market and prices. >> -- particularly if you add in the revisions. we want to ca string of months towards that. annmarie: said leaders weighing in on what they are watching out for her to prompt a policy change. the u.s. economy is at an inflection point. the main risk remains a resurgence of the coronavirus. joining us now is bloomberg's senior issue economy reporter. what is the read on the economy? this interview he gave, he does not sound any different as opposed to his most recent comments. this is what passes for -- >>

this is what passes for excitement. you mentioned the inflection point. but we are seeing is the data-dependent fed is having on this great data. the u.s. economy is moving at a faster pace so he pointed to the pace of vaccinations. fiscal and monetary policy. we are at the point where we are starting to see faster job creation and hiring. he saw the latest job figures outperforming to support that. the outlook is brightened substantially. not too much change but a bit of a change in tone. earlier, he was emphasizing the uncertainty, and you have the bond investors screaming that inflation will raise its head. he did hold strong on that one. powell saying we could afford to wait until we see actual inflation appear so he's not

convinced by the latest figures. resolve ppi faster than expected last week. importantly, he provided all the caveats. the principal risk is the virus spreads again. he called it a very unusual recovery with some parts not recovered at all. even though some people are starting to return to some daily activities. we are going to continue to support the economy until the recovery is complete. critically, it's highly unlikely we raise rates anything like this year. those were the key highlights. a little bit of a change in tone. more of the. not too much a change from what we have heard in the past couple weeks. manus: i wonder if we suffer from that sort of disease of subsuming real risk because of unconventional monetary policy, unconventional fiscal policy. we subsume the real covid risk. was there anything else you found noteworthy in the interview? >> that is

interesting the way you put it. he talks a little bit about the events of the past few weeks. he used the word heroic and talking about the u.s. stimulus that was passed last month, wanting to emphasize what the policy has done to the economic trajectory. of course, kind of giving the fed a pat on its own back. the economy performed better over the past year than expected but that the death toll is shocking against what he would have thought a year ago so he's always kind of trying to strike that balance between what the economic outlook looks like and of course all the disastrous stance we have been through and the real challenges we still have to have. on financial stability, he did address that last month. the fed and other regulators are monitoring it very carefully to better understand it. he found it concerning and surprising that a single

customer could trigger such large losses in other big firms. as far as a systemic breakdown, he says the chances are "very low." the biggest risk he's watching right now is cyber risk so that remains a daily threat, he said. manus: michelle, thank you so much. our reporter on the 60 minute interview last night. coming up, we take a look at what is ahead for this week. the agenda, the earnings, and it's all about wall street lenders. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪

annmarie: good morning. it's "daybreak europe." i'm annmarie hordern in london. manus cranny in dubai. the biden administration's top

national security and economic advisors will be meeting with semiconductor and auto company leaders. an important meeting to keep an eye on. manus: and then we flip it over to the oil market. we can turn things around on a dime. we got the opec -- they will publish the monthly report. wednesday, we will meet with christine lagarde and jay powell. bank earnings kick off the season. jp morgan, goldman sachs, delivering their numbers. friday, it is the japanese prime minister, yoshihide suga, and joe biden. dani burger has a track on those numbers. ficc, there you go. that is all that matters. ficc. dani: that is all that matters, but not just that. part of the reason that he did so poorly last year, at least in the beginning of the year in terms of their share price, moving lower, it's because of

the low reserves. we should get an opposite picture of that this quarter. we should get a huge release of that money set aside for bad loans so that means profit at banks will go much higher. we have better margin pictures with the steeper yield curve. analysts i heard said the rally might not even be halfway over because it is said to be such a stellar earnings quarter. not just better markets and better ficc results, but you also have to imagine the investment bank itself will do very well thanks to the ipo's. risk management might be a question among analysts on a lot of these calls but you have to remember, most of these u.s. banks were able to escape unscathed. maybe a question but nothing confirmed. annmarie: the golden child in the u.s., and the problem child in europe. our thanks to dani burger. that does it for us. you know where i am headed. the gym, lunch, a male

appointment. -- nail appointment. manus: i cannot wait for that corridor if it reopens and then i will be on set with you. there you go. nirvana. this is bloomberg. ♪

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