tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg April 12, 2021 7:00am-8:00am EDT
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♪ >> we want our policy to be robust if our models breakdown. >> in the second half of the year, i think you start to see things ramp-up. >> they will be numerous tests of the fed but the fed will have to apply overtime. >> there are ketchup's -- there are catch-ups happening. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: the boom is here. from new york city for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on bloomberg tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. later this week, we will see the data behind the boom. tom: an incredibly important moment for a guy who is
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usually really cautious and reticent. if we are like david kotok, it is loaded the boat monday. -- it is a load the boat monday. jonathan: a huge rip off the gains behind the vaccination news and the headlines we have seen over the last six months. it gets better and better. retail sales in america thursday, i mentioned bank of america earlier this morning, looking for 11.5%. then we actually start to see the numbers, two point 5%. many expect year on year for a cpi figure later this morning. tom: there's a study within the core academics, but one of the data points this morning, 41.1 two on spx futures. -- 41 12 on spx -- 4112 on spx futures. jonathan: here yar in the first
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quarter, it fears like -- it feels like year-end already. tom: the red sox are in first place. that is going to end at some point. jonathan: unfortunately, you can't end the season right now. the year starts for me this week, right here, right now, tomorrow morning. it: 30 am, we get that inflation print. this is the data we have been looking to kick off 2021 with. lisa: just to talk about the two-pronged tension here, you've got low rates fueling this gain in equities when you have a earnings coming on strong that are not necessarily accompanied by inflation. i was looking at a metric i thought was fascinating. in order to bring s&p' multiples to a decade-long average, you have to have a 15% increase in earnings in 2023 above what equity analysts are pricing in.
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jonathan: a really good write up on the bloomberg terminal about the story. look out for that on the bloomberg and on bloomberg.com. let's get the price action this monday morning. tom talking about a 4100 handle on the s&p 500. there it is, 4112. we are down by about 0.2% in the bond market. can you imagine if you were in cash? tom: let me imagine. i am imagining i'm in cash. i'm imagining. [laughter] jonathan: how does it feel, tom? euro-dollar up about 0.1%. exempt and europe. maria tadeo -- things improving in brussels. maria tadeo walking through that. tom: in germany, it is a huge deal. this turnaround. to me it has been a four or five day turnaround. jonathan: for what, the nasdaq? tom: for germany.
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jonathan: totally agree. inflection point for europe. really important moment. just like your spurs over the weekend against manchester united. do you want to do that right now, or should we move on? let's move on. lisa: arsenal won, tots lost just want to throw that out there. not having to do was football, we've got bill dudley, the former u.s. fed president, joining us at about 90 minutes, talking about bank regulation at a time when banks have really been the stalwart of the financial system coming out of the pandemic, heading into earnings talking about profits at a time when there is still a k-shaped recovery. then i 1:00 p.m., i am very interested to see the demand for the $38 billion sale of treasury notes. how much more in demand, how much domestic demand? how much are investors going to signal where yields are going to go?
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10 years tend to be pretty calm. very interested to see if there is any bipartisanship on capitol hill. there is a bipartisan congressional meeting with president biden and vice president kamala harris, where they will be talking about that 2.3 trillion dollars fiscal stimulus. will there be any agreement on paying for this? we do have goldman sachs saying the potential for corporate taxes will crimp earnings next year and the equity market. how realistic are higher taxes, given some of the reluctance on both sides of the aisle to get this through? jonathan: thank you. another big debate on wall street, cpi tomorrow morning. your median estimate, 2.5%. a really tight range, 2.3% to the upper end of 2.7%. this is the base effect kicking in. does it go beyond that? we saw cpi on friday. do we get anything more than expected? tom: carl riccadonna sent mia love note on friday.
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usually it means i am wrong. he said inflation is way out. we are all seeing the base effect. what are we going to see about the worries on the pendulum of cost dynamics? jonathan: lisa's new pendulum of cost dynamics. [laughter] did you see gold over the weekend? it was down on the session. down on the year, too. in a year where we are all discussing higher inflation prints, what happens to gold? lower. what happens to gold? it has been ripping. lisa: basically the macro hedge on the idea of monetary debasement, whether that fuels something that is lasting is another question. jonathan: let's get to david kotok right now, cumberland advisors cio. let's pretend it is tuesday. we are 90 minutes away from a
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cpi print. how do you trade around that number? how do you invest around the inflation dynamics you expect this year? david: we are fully invested. we have been fully invested for a while. we think the stock market heads higher, and we think carl riccadonna is absolutely right. inflation expectations up, inflation coming not so much. and there are reasons why you can't get inflation without intensifying aggregate demand and rising, accelerating labor costs, and a credit multiplier in a banking system. we don't have any of the three. we've had a big shock. we are coming away from a shock. it is a huge shock, not a normal business cycle. tom: the shock is that he's not fishing down in florida. david kotok is the most measured newsletter writer i know, was
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cumberland advisors. often he is in cash, often he is scared, and you are not scared right now. what are we going to hear from american earnings season, revenue season, and the expectations forward? david: big numbers. first quarter, the banks are going to be strong. they will be to comparisons, so there will be an olive enough -- so there will be a lot of analysis of this. you look at the banking system, which is resilient, strong capital, great supervision because it went through the great financial crisis only 10 years ago. we saw banks like j.p. morgan say we don't want any part. we saw wells fargo knots caved. the damage was done, whereas it
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was not done in american financials. we are the stalwart financials of the world right now. lisa: how much are you bullish on risk assets predicated on the idea that rates remain low for a long time? that we have gotten ahead of our skis, and we are likely to remain in this low inflation world for a long time? david: a quick summary of the reason, we work 153 million nonfarm payroll in february of last year before covid. we are back to 143 now. you have to go back years to get to 143. the normally -- the normans number lee would put us -- the numbers normally would put us at 157. look at the cap.
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if you have this huge gap number one, and you have years of lives lost because of deaths from covid, roughly nine years of lives lost for each death, after you adjust for older people in nursing homes, what if you are done? you have taken this big chunk of aggregate demand and removed it. it is not there anymore. it has to be refilled. so i think the inflation pressures are coming in the second half of this decade. i think personally, jay powell and the fed have been doing the right thing, and if there is anything they will have to do more, and most importantly fiscal policy will have to do more, because that gap is so large. that is our view.
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we are totally invested. we have a productivity gain from covid, and the outlook is good. earnings, 200 for the year and rising at a compounding 7.8% for the decade. jonathan: someone had a good catch over the weekend, that's for sure. if it -- david kotok sounding very optimistic about the future. thank you, sir. maybe you could frame it is less constructive, the idea that the federal reserve is going to have to do more in this cycle then it is already doing is a big call. tom: after you add up the stimulus, just the normal budget lift you get, add them all up and i came up with a real quick for trillion dollar to cystic -- wic for trillion dollars -- real quick $4 trillion statistic.
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jonathan: will it persist? and what will wages look like in the back half of this year? bill dudley joining us in about an hour and 20 minutes. in your bond market, 1.66% on tens. in your equity market, all-time highs. we pulled back by 0.1%. on radio come on tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance -- heard on radio, seen on tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. fed reserve chair jerome powell says the u.s. economy as at an inflection point. powell told "60 minutes" there is strong growth in hiring ahead thanks to vaccinations and strong policy support, but says it would be smart of people
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continue to socially distance and wear masks. today, democrats will start considering president biden's infrastructure and tax proposal. his american jobs plan focuses on infrastructure and some social measures. the president is expected to ask for another massive investment in programs focused on health and families. regulators in china have told ant group to become a financial company that can be regulated more like a bank. they halted ant's record ipo. microsoft is making a massive bet on artificial intelligence. the software giant is set to buy nuance communications in a deal with an equity value of about $16 billion. it is a software that helps doctors take patient discussions
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because of widespread vaccination and strong fiscal support, strong monetary policy support. we feel like the economy is about to start growing much more quickly and job creation coming in much more quickly, so the principal risk is that the disease would spread again. jonathan: show me the data. chairman powell of these federal reserve speaking to cbs's "60 minutes" yesterday. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. equities pulling back a full five points from all-time highs. on the s&p 500, 4114. in the fx market, euro from her. the vaccination data in europe gets a little bit better. euro-dollar, $1.19 handle at $1.1912. your cpi print 25 hours away. credit where it is due for the federal reserve. you'd higher on the 10 year
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america, and they didn't lose their nerve. they talked about this being consistent with the outlook all of the conversations about yield curve control, that did not happen the last several months. tom: whether it is euro sterling or whether you've got a eurocentric recovery, same thing in the rates space, where the real yield says we have not seen the kind of shift many are predicting, which is a lesser negative, a higher real yield, a trend back towards zero. on washington, emily wilkins, our washington correspondent. good morning to you. i want you to define right now the sum of all of the spending going on. has anybody sat down in the pandemic sanitized willard hotel and actually added up what all of the spending will be? emily: it is going to be a lot.
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this $2.25 trillion, just in scope of legislation congress has passed, this is one of the most expensive bills we have ever seen, which is why there is so much debate about how to pay for it and how much needs to be paid for. tom: i don't mean to interrupt, but what is so important here is over the weekend, i couldn't figure out what the adjustment is. do you perceive to point tax -- perceive 2.x trillion down to something much lower? emily: the 1.9 trillion dollars was to stop the bleeding and address the emergency items of the pandemic. the $2.25 trillion, you've got to think about that over the span of the next decade because the funding isn't just for now, but it is for further down the road. one of the things the biden adminstration wants to do is make sure they have a strong recovery from this pandemic. they don't want a sluggish recovery like we saw from the
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2008 recession. lisa: meanwhile, president biden has announced a lot of ambitious plans in his first 100 days. a lot of people said he has done a lot more than other presidents pretty quickly. is he actually doing more, or is he announcing more? if you take a look at what is getting down on the ground, how much is moving along towards some conclusion? emily: you can point to a number of executive orders, and you can debate exactly how effective some of these are, how much they really do -- i would go ahead and point to that one point $.9 trillion that pass through congress. -- that $1.19 trillion that pass through congress. clearly, biden is someone who has been in d.c. for sometime. he came in with a sense of what he wanted to do. but this infrastructure package is going to be far more difficult than what we have seen from the previous covid package. this is where you will see lawmakers pushing for what they
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want, being's turbine about things being stubborn about things. if you are in the -- being stubborn about things. if you are in the senate, it only takes one to block any legislation. that is something they are going to be using to try to get the priorities in this upcoming infrastructure package. lisa: how much pressure is there to break this bill into pieces that are more palatable for a greater number of congressmen? emily: that is something i think we are going to be seeing determined in the next couple of weeks. lawmakers have been gone for three weeks in the house, two weeks in the senate. they are going to be back in the same rooms and say, exactly how is this next part going to go? because you have seen senators including joe manchin say this all needs to be one package, but also house speaker nancy pelosi suggesting it could be two packages are more. i think it is going to depend on
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what strategy they have, how much consensus you have among democrats. i think it is going to depend on whether they think they can get some publicans on board for some of the traditional infrastructure pieces in this legislation. there's a lot to keep in mind, and i think today and tomorrow when lawmakers get back to washington, we are going to be getting a much better idea of what the next several months are going to look like and what it's going to be in the final package. jonathan: how seriously are you taking bipartisan talks? emily: that is such a great question. you are seeing republicans go to the white house today, and it is kind of interesting because they are not the usual culprits. it is not your mitt romneys and susan collins. it is lawmakers a little further to the right than that, a little less willing to compromise with democrats, and yet president biden has decided these are the individuals he is going to meet with either because they have shown an interest in infrastructure, because of the
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parts of the country they represent. for member what the white house has done with previous legislation, particularly the covid package. they have defined bipartisan as not bipartisan on capitol hill, but bipartisan with voters across america, and that is something i think you will continue to see president biden make his pitch to those individuals. jonathan: i think he talked about uniting the country and not necessarily uniting congress. what we saw last time around was bipartisan talks invited republican senators into talk about the relief bill, and guess what happened? nothing. tom: gallup is on top of this, and another of other -- and a number of other pollers are as well, just how far away the politicians are from their constituents. jonathan: i am sure if you said to someone on the street, do we need to spend more on
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infrastructure, they would say yes. what in this is actually provisional infrastructure? what is the trojan horse for everything that maybe democrats want, a wish list so to speak? what is it about this particular plan that has taken on what the president called a competitive china? emily: there are some things in this bill you could argue our infrastructure, and some things in this bill that it would difficult to make that argument for. but democrats are saying we won the house, we won the senate, we won the presidency, and we did it by these policies. it doesn't mean there won't be things in these packages -- in this package that republicans can support. the question is whether it gets separated out or lummis
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♪ jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, live on tv and radio, this is "bloomberg surveillance." look out, london, for volume throughout the trading week as pubs reopening the city. you think i'm kidding, i'm not. s&p futures down by about 0.1%. nasdaq futures off by 0.2%. last week, up by almost 4% on the week. the russell was actually lower on the week. right now, the russell at -0.0 port for bit -- at -.04%. now it is about the data.
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what is the source of surprise this time around? the banks on wednesday, year-to-date app 23%, jp morgan. wells fargo up 34%. brilliant numbers so far, and participating in that bank rally, europe, too. vaccinations in europe really starting to improve. so rather is the relative bar for performance here asked so where is the relative bar for performance here -- where is the relative bar for performance here? tom: i would go to tony dwyer. do we see a recession out there? i don't think so. jonathan: i'm talking about relative performance here, tom. have you got a comment on london and the pubs reopening? tom: i stopped by the carlisle. jonathan: i was waiting for that. tom: it is like the same thing. in london it is the pubs. here it is the carlisle. jonathan: it is freezing. that's the difference between you and i. you go to the carlisle, i go to
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the pub. it's a very different life. tom: romaine would go to both. jonathan: we will get to romaine in a second. 10 year, three year a little bit later today. your yield right now on 30's unchanged. i would like to think r omaine would begin the pub with me, and not in the carlisle. i think he's that kind of guy. romaine: don't make me choose between you two. lisa: well done. [laughter] romaine: a big week for markets. you have a earnings that you just alluded to. anchor earnings, economic work -- bank earnings, economic reports. microsoft said to be preparing a deal for nuance. people might remember this company had that dragon voice recognition software where you can speak into your graph on --
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your microphone and it would allow you to dictate. that company has since really gone a lot deeper into ai and voice recognition. microsoft apparently wants this as part of a broader health network it is trying to build. this would be a $16 billion deal. neither company has confirmed this is in the works, but bloomberg reporting that it could be announced later today. canaccord with a note saying that if you want to value tesla, don't value it as the car company. they are looking at it from an energy storage angle and putting a pretty hefty price target on it. you guys have been talking about -- [indiscernible] yeah, alibaba and ant. chinese regulators basically looking at and pop -- at ant financial saying we are going to regulate you like a bank. that is really weighing on the
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shares of other companies in this space. alibaba is up primarily because of that less than expected fine, but when you took a look at tencent, a lot of the companies in that space, those shares are under pressure today. a big issue going on in china over some pretty decent numbers with regards to the food delivery, at a run rate of something like 50 billion that has not gotten back to those pre-pandemic levels. what is going on with your tie, by the way? it is very short. tom: i know, i've got to fix it but i am all wired in. lisa: seriously? [laughter] jonathan: romaine's giving tom criticism of his bowtie. tom: i went to target and got it, and i feel good. jonathan: thank you, sir.
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[laughter] tom: romaine, go away. we've got "the close" this afternoon. look for that. the white house moments ago out with the word to shore. the white house expects transitory rise in inflation. how about your transitory underperformance within the equity markets? leslie falconio is with ubs wealth management, and she makes a cottage industry of asset allocation, very different from other asset allocators. what is the ubs advice right now to the huge body of people who feel they have underperformed and been left behind in this market? leslie: we are still very overweight. we don't think you should be cash on the sidelines. in the fixed income side, the
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market expectations has poster lot forward, so that is why we have seen such a rise in interest rates. there's no question that the opportunity for fixed income is there, balance between yield and income preservation. tom: but the agony right now of underperformance is maybe about focused investing, less diversified on individual securities and asset classes versus the good old institutional broader versification. what is the best the past now -- the best path now? leslie: the traditional 60/40 split might have to be rearranged to put a little more on the equity side given some of the headwinds we might see from
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interest rates. but the diversification in our opinion is always the best metric going forward. one thing important to remember that we are looking at is a lot of it is priced into the marketplace in terms of what we call great expectations. a lot is priced in terms of what the market is expecting going forward in terms of relative inflation. because of that, it is important to remain versus hide. that remain diversified. howdy -- remain diversified. jonathan: how do you diversify it? leslie: you probably increase more on the equity side. we have all talked about the correlation between the treasury market and the equity side. or the long-term, should the correlation invert. whether it is qe or fiscal stimulus, we've had a break in accumulation. so you have increased the equity
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risk. if interest rates rise more than we are expecting, which is only about 2%, the opportunity set widens and you may have a different balance. jonathan: the reason i ask is because i caught up with blackrock couple of months ago, thinking about the same dynamic. what they said is maybe you could make the equity composition a little bit more defensive to allow you jake more risk on the bond side of things. where would you come down on that particular argument? leslie: i think how we are positioned right now, only because we are a little more procyclical on the equity side and the fixed income side as well. we have a tendency to lean more towards your traditional, high investment grade corporate's. so i do think there's a way to have a balance, but right now we are still a little bit on the
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procyclical side because although expectations are very high, going into the end of 2021 , 2022, we will still have this reflation trade continue. lisa: this seems very goldilocks , with interest rates expected to remain low for a very long time with really solid corporate earnings. how long can we stay in this goldilocks before rates go materially higher or corporate earnings come down materially? leslie: i think the guidance from the fed is they have no intention of draining the punch bowl anytime soon. of course, that can't go on forever. when the time comes when it switches, it is very difficult because we really need to see the data for the second half. it is little bit difficult to predict what is going to happen in the second half. we think interest rates will rise, not significantly, but if
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the fed waits too long where they have to hike to start marching forward, but the hike is higher, that becomes a possible crisis. jonathan: good to catch up with you, as always. leslie falconio, ubs senior strategist. moments ago, we had a statement from the white house led by jared bernstein. here is the title, "pandemic prices and assessing inflation in the months ahead." they expect what we see in the months ahead to be transitory. here is a white house right now looking to control the narrative around the next several months because they are looking to do a whole lot more. the last thing they want is for media organizations and individuals, the public, the electorate, the officials to run
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away with this idea that it is anything but transitory and hint at their effort to do even more in the months and year ahead. tom: tomorrow we get cpi. jonathan: it has everything to do with that. how did they control what the messaging looks like at side of that? tom: they don't. we saw a list of some ppi statistics this morning. the markets will react to it as it always does. lisa: and they are not alone. i was looking at a long time bond bull that has gotten it right again and again, and they expect psychosis around inflation expectations to wayne and disinflation being a greater flat than patient -- greater threat than inflation. there is an underpinning to their logic. jonathan: cpi at age: 30 tomorrow morning. this morning, we will catch up with bill dudley, former fed
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president. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your s&p 500 pulling back from record highs, 4114. we are down 0.1%. euro-dollar from her by about 0.1%. heard on bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. fed chair jerome powell says the main risk is that the coronavirus would spread again. powell said the fed would do everything it can to support the economy for as long as it takes to complete the recovery. in hong kong, the government may relax some social distancing measures as more people get their verona virus -- there coronavirus vaccine.
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restaurants may extend closing hours to 2:00 a.m., and bars could have limited reopening's if all staff have received their first shot. iran blamed israel for an attack on their largest uranium enrichment plant at a time when diplomats are trying to revive the international deal that contained the country's nuclear program. israel is neither confirming nor denying its involvement. in germany, angela merkel's christian democratic union has backed the party leader as the successor. the biggest u.s. cryptocurrency
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explains is set to go public on wednesday -- cryptocurrency exchange is set to go public on wednesday. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪ i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
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economic recovery is firmly on track. they want to control the leverage ratio. they want to control the risk of overheating. so therefore, as they really rein in the credit growth, you are seeing some softening of the mainline markets. jonathan: that was j.p. morgan chase managing director and vice chairman of asia-pacific. good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. here's the price action right now. equities are off by 0.16%. it is a mild move lower this morning ahead of a really interesting trading week. cpi tomorrow, retail sales wednesday. yields up a sickle basis point, 1.6 -- a single basis point, 1.6657% on tens.
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alibaba with a record fine from the regulator. here's the hope for the market. alibaba up by a little more than 6%, on the hope that these issues are behind the company now. tom: i thought there was a wide set of headlines there that really show a new china as well. joining us to drive forward the conversation, and the current -- conversation, enda curran, on the academic politics of the pacific rim. i really want to talk about something out of forge magnus's -- of george magnus's required reads, "red flags." do you perceive that beijing and mr. xi are rebalancing and reforming business over towards more of a state owned enterprise? enda: there's no doubt they certainly are trying to get the tech sector in particular back into line. we have seen that over the
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weekend, like with the $2.8 billi fineon -- $2.8 billion fine towards alibaba. but china is also staying true to state press today, saying they are not about stifling innovation into the technology sector. this is kind of a reminder and a check on the tech sector. they knew they need the tech sector to grow their economy, and it is a big part of china's ambitions over the coming years. so it is a slap on the wrist and a reminder of who is in charge, i think. jonathan: i think they got the message, looking at the letter from the head of the company following that record fine. "alibaba would not have achieved our growth without the critical oversight and support for their
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constituents that there have that have been -- that have been crucial. for that we are full of gratitude and respect." are they just at the mercy of whatever they want? enda: no doubt, it is an all power administration in china. when the regulators crackdown on the sector, that is what goes. the fintech giants have been pushing this campaign for a while now. it is taken more than half of alibaba's valuation since mid-october. i think they will turn the course and engage in an even tougher crackdown.
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it is now going to be treated more like a financial company vented tech company, and that is an example of trying to bring things into line. they've got to make sure they are marching all towards the same national goal. jonathan: for many of the big players, they can't get in. do you think there's a message here for how they operate internationally as well? enda: i think there is. as you mentioned, the market in china remains very much closed to foreign companies in the tech sector. china has been opening up in terms of other sectors, especially the financial services sector. most are -- wall street is making it there.
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these are closely regulated by the chinese government. that definitely affects how they operate around the world. so it does speak to the consistence with which china operates, there consistence globally. i don't think there will be any big regulatory overhaul. we know that the u.s./china technology tends to be conflict that ends up happening. lisa: there's a question about messaging versus reality. i think about that when it comes to leveraging china. the equities have underperformed in the region due to a supposed withdrawing of leverage i the pboc, and yet there was data out today showing that leverage loans increased. is this dissonance, or a sort of slow down that is a
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justification for the weakness that we see in chinese assets? enda: this is a great question. there's a lot of discussion going around china that they do want to start tapering their support. as you mentioned, china's banks are going gangbusters. we haven't yet seen any major sign of a tapering. we haven't yet seen any major sign of policy typing, per se. it is more warnings from authorities, from regulators, to keep this warning in check. i think that is because they know there are parts of the economy that still need a lot of support.
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it is kind of a steady as she goes. they are not going all out on the stimulus side, but neither are they pushing me -- are they pushing it either. jonathan: on the issues with alibaba as they receive a 2.8 billion dollar penalty from the regulator in china, a bit of a relief rally for the stock. you receive a little more than 6%. coming from germany, german states agreed to extend the lot down by three weeks. that is still the reality of the situation on the continent at the moment. tom: it is the tough decisions they are making. you wonder what tough decisions we are going to see with the success we are having of what do we do about people that don't want to get vaccinated. within the liberty debate of america versus germany, i would say it is two separate conversations. jonathan: absolutely.
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