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tv   Bloomberg Daybreak Asia  Bloomberg  April 12, 2021 7:00pm-9:00pm EDT

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shery: a very good morning. i am haidi stroud-watts in sydney. shery: i am shery ahn in new york. welcome to "daybreak asia." beijing is set to lose its currency manipulator tag. a bloomberg's group reveals the u.s. will drop the designation for china as the biden administration reverses trump error policies. first alibaba and now ant, jack
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ma's simtech firm is being forced into an overhaul just days before his business was forced to pay a record fine. asian equities look poised to follow the u.s. lower. regional futures in the red after the benchmark in new york edged down from record highs. haidi: let's take a look at the state of play when it comes to this early-morning market session. sophie, what are you seeing? sophie: this april, asian stocks are losing momentum. it capped a two day drop. we could be looking at a mixed session. futures moving to the downside and we do have aussie yields moving higher. testing 27 basis points. bond traders may be testing the rba's yield control. shaun roach says the rba is the canary in the coal mine for central banks, ahead in its labor market recovery. futures edging slightly higher early in this asia session after we saw cash bonds stabilize on
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good commands for auctions. heads up, today, we have indian currency markets offline but we saw the rupee slumping. inflation jumping more than forecast for the economy in march plus india surpassing brazil as the country with the second-most cases in the world. flipping the page, checking on the offshore yuan, this ahead of china's trade data tuesday, as follows march credit data. the offshore yuan holding gains below 655 after it marked the first rise in four sessions ahead of the u.s. treasury foreign-exchange report. shery. shery: staying on that report, we have a bloomberg scoop. sources saying janet yellen will declined to name china the currency manipulator and it is weighing reversals of trump error policies. our senior reporter joining us now. what kind of changes is yellen
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considering for her first foreign-exchange report? >> in addition to deciding not to designate china a currency manipulator, which was largely expected considering the biden administration's foreign-policy and economic policy stance towards china, yellen is looking to reverse the expansion of the treasury foreign-exchange policy report under secretary mnuchin back in 2019. at that time, mnuchin made it a little bit easier for countries to become designated as currency manipulator's and almost doubled the number of countries that the treasury department reviewed for that designation so yellen is considering talking with her advisers and colleagues in the administration to reverse that decision and tighten the scope of the report. >> why are these moves significant, given we
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know by the technical definition, china has not been manipulating its currency? >> that's a good question. this is a political document, back when the treasury days were in their own terms in charge. there were clear signs that china was manipulating its currency. congress was calling for the manipulation tag to be applied and for political reasons, those administrations decided not to apply the designation and during trump, the designation was applied on china for political reasons, to get a win in the trade, get a concession on a trade deal, so we can see that with yellen deciding not to designate china, it shows that they are taking a more measured approach toward china. they don't want to blow up diplomatic ties at this early stage, to see if they can find
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other ways to apply pressure on some of the diplomatic issues that remain. shery: jack ma's ant group will drastically revamp its business, vowing to dachshund vowing to demands. -- bowing to demands. both and the regulators -- both ant and the regulators. >> both saying that ant financial would now be treated as a financial holding company and as such would essentially be supervised more like a bank. we know that the regulators laid out a number of issues that they wanted ant group and its executives to tackle over the next few months including what they say is unfair competition when it comes to the payments part of the business. they said that ant should ramp
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up its data protection and liquidity and they also put a cap and constraints on the consumer lending part of the business and said the massive money market fund that they have will see a cap and its value as wild. this follows that record $2.8 billion fine for alibaba, the other jack ma company, of course. it is a reminder that the regulators still have their eyes on the prize when it comes to reining in technology companies, and for ant, it pulls into question their timeframe for renewing and reviving this ipo that was dramatically pulled in november because these measures that they will have to put in place will crimp growth. that is the view of experts so that ipo is in doubt and a broad message for the tech sector in china from regulators. haidi: on the broader economy, chinese banks extending record loans and policymakers are not too happy. angus: -- >> one point $2
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trillion worth of loans in the first three months of the year from chinese banks to businesses and individuals around the country, a record, as you say. the pboc has come out and that previously that names need to ensure that their lending does not top 2020 levels. in the first three months, it clearly did, by almost 10%. they are concerned about financial risks. they are leaning on the banks to ensure that lending does not get out of control but it also the strength of the economic recovery here in terms of the demand for these loans. more broadly, aggregate financing for the month of march as well as the money supply, aggregate financing came in below expectations and the money supply eased. shadow banking also reduced as well so because of all those factors, the broad credit picture shows that in fact the increase this year is at a slower pace than it was last year and that is why bloomberg economics says you might see the pboc pulling back on its
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attempts to withdraw some liquidity from the financial system here. you're going to get another gauge of the health of the economy later today with the trade data, exports, and imports expected to pick up ready strongly. shery: tom mackenzie. we will have more analysis on china's crackdown on tech later with the founder and ceo, who covers mainland chinese stocks plus the senior vice president at moody's. for now, let's get to vonnie quinn with the first word headlines. vonnie: president joe biden told more than a dozen ceo's that he has bipartisan support for funding to address the shortage. during every virtual summit, companies that glued alphabet, gm, tsmc, biden led a writer from lawmakers supporting his proposal for chip manufacturing and research. white house says the meeting shows they are serious about addressing supply chain
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constraints. the london mayor is urging residents who work or they've been part of the city to get tested for covid-19 after an outbreak links to the south african variant. the mayor says anyone over the age of 11 should get tested as soon as possible. the u.k. reopens shops, restaurants, gyms, hair salons, all after months of stringent on down measures. russia has suspended most air travel was turkey, citing rising covid-19 infections for russians returning from turkey. the move cuts off a source of tourism revenue for turkey and comes amid a spat over and cars -- ankara's support of ukraine. iran is blaming israel for an attack on its power grid. the move comes at a delicate time with international diplomats trying to reinstate the 2015 nuclear arms accord with iran. tehran says that centrifuges
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were damaged. israel is neither confirming nor denying any involvement. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i have vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. haidi. haidi: still ahead, we will be speaking to the australian payments player. the coo with his outlook. lewis lau and why he sees a more compelling buying opportunity in china later this year. he is with us my next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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shery: the rotation into value continues. our next guest says they still have more room to run. joining us now to discuss is portfolio manager lewis lau.
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always great having you with us. we are seeing this rotation but at the same time, a little bit of stalling. this gdp chart on the bloomberg shows how that rotation from growth to value has sold in asia. when it comes to developed markets, we are also seeing that completely reversing in the last two weeks in the top panel. where do you still see the opportunities? >> you are in for maybe a little bit of a brief reprieve in the rotation but if you look at inflation, it is still headed higher, both in developed markets and emerging-market. vaccinations, economic reopening scum i think it's highly likely that the value rotation will still continue into 2021. areas like basic materials, steel, cement, banks, all of these still have room for upside surprises in earnings and going back to the global financial crisis recovery in 2010, on the
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whole, analysts underestimated the strength of the recovery and that may be the same in 2021. >> we have breaking news at the moment. japan has decided to release treated water into the oaken -- treated fukushima water into the ocean. now, we were expecting from media also reporting that the amount of radioactive water from the nuclear power plant would be around one million cubic meters, which would be enough to fill 400 olympic size pool swimming pools. japan deciding to release that treated water into the ocean. part of its nearly $200 billion effort to clean up after the worst atomic accident since chernobyl. we will continue to watch those latest developments. since we are talking about
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japan, let's talk about the market there as well because we have seen a cyclical rally in japan and perhaps more value plays, too. >> i think japan is a market where people have very low expectations. i think the market is still pricing in for mild deflation. if you get even a mild inflationary scenario in japan, you know, we think that the banks, the auto stocks, and even some of the pharmaceutical companies could do quite well because of low expectations for that market. globally, japan is where we see most value compared to some of the other regions like europe and emerging markets. haidi: what are the opportunities in china given that we have just seen -- when it comes to equities and trading. where would be a good entry point and what sectors were you looking at? louis: if you look at the past
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tightening cycles, whatever the pboc have slowed down credit stimulus, the msci china has already -- we think that this year will not be an exception but we do see in fact good entry points in chinese life insurance companies that have done nothing in the last two years because a lot of the life insurance agents were not able to meet them of the customers but when you look at the new business growth in january, february, and march, they are coming off a strong start in china. the other area would be higher education companies. they run private universities. that is an area the government has been encouraging growth of the private sector because only half of the 18-year-olds can attend college in china so that is a sector we can participate in and make attractive right now. haidi: are you expecting the pboc to take more tightening
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measures when it comes to lending? we had first quarter record members when it comes to lending but that total aggregate lending figure was lower than perhaps expected. how do these measures kind of fit into what opportunities you see in stocks going forward? louis: you might see 1% to 2% points slowdown with the run rate that we saw but i think the key here is really whether they will allow the rate to rise given that they are still trying to fight some of the regulatory issues with banks, shadow banking, clamping down on some of these things, so i think chinese bank investors that are expecting rate increases in china, may be they are in for a little bit of a disappointment. we are more concerned about whether risk can rise rather than the pace of loan growth and that is what we are watching for if bank stocks can be
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driven with higher rates. the prospect of higher rates in asia would be better than china in our opinion. shery: louis lau, portfolio manager. we are getting breaking news. incremental more developments on the trip.com listing in hong kong. $268, hong kong, per share, according to the massive online travel platform seeking to raise as much as $1.4 billion was the previous guidance, u.s. dollars in a hong kong secondary listing. this is a number of a growing cohort of u.s. traded chinese companies looking for a homecoming listing in hong kong. he said to be pricing that hong kong listing at 268 dollars hong kong a share. that retail offer is five times oversubscribed according to reports as well that we have gotten and this after six local brokers loaned -- in margin
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financings are quite a bit of interest in that secondary listing. larry fink says there is need for more long-term investing, especially post-covid. he told bloomberg he thinks the overall things are looking up for the economy and he thinks funds should be positioned. >> i am as constructive as i was two years ago and five years ago. i think the innovation we are seeing from capitalism is transforming how we live, how we work, how we are educated, how we apply medicines. that doesn't mean we don't have problems. right now, the economies are not fully balanced yet. sectors of the economy are still not functioning because of covid. but i believe strongly that
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markets are in a very good position now to continue to grow. we have a record amount of monetary policy, a record amount of fiscal stimulus. i have never seen more cash on the sidelines. we are going to live longer, post-covid, so the liability of retirement is getting longer. there is a need for more long-term investing, so all the foundations for long-term equity holdings is strong. that doesn't mean there's not inflation risk. that doesn't mean i am not worried about our deficits. you know, so you cannot deny the market is evolving and changing. but i would say interest rates need to go a little higher. and i do believe they will go a little higher but i don't think interest rates will go high to
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disrupt equity valuations. so the real opportunity, if we can tackle climate change, investment opportunities are going to be enormous. i look at this as just part of a great investment opportunity. in my conversation with some ceo's, they believe for their companies, it is, too. and so, i spend so little time focusing on the market, the ups and downs of the market, but all the fundamentals for long-term investing is strong and it tells me that markets are going to be higher out two more years. shery: larry fink spacing exclusively to -- speaking exclusively to erik schatzker. the brazilian central bank president joins tuesday evening in new york at 6:30 a.m. on
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wednesday in hong kong. this is bloomberg. ♪
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shery: breaking news from moments ago, japan is planning to release more than one million cubic meters of treated radioactive water from its wrapped fukushima -- wrecked fukushima nuclear plant. fishing groups are opposed to the plan. let's get more from our asia government reporter in tokyo, it isabel reynolds. they are running out of storage tanks. >> yes, they are running out of space in which to put this water which now amounts to more than 500 olympic-sized swimming pools of fluid. so it is rain and groundwater that has come into contact with the nuclear plant which was
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crippled in a tsunami a decade ago. it has been pumped out, treated to remove most of the radioactive contamination, and stored in containers and they are likely to run out of space for these containers next year even as the amount of water will continue to grow as operators try to complete decommissioning, which will take decades. >> it is likely to be the reaction? >> it is a very divisive issue. some people even are in favor of disposing of it into the sea but as you say, the fishing groups are particularly worried about this. they are only just now beginning to recover from the effects of the tsunami which ruined their business. they used to be busy efficient points it -- sports in that area -- fishing ports in that area.
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south korea protested and we saw china way in, urging them to take a responsible stance in terms of the world, in terms of japan's own people. we still have to wait and hear some details about how exactly this disposal will be done. i believe the water will be treated over again to remove any more trace elements of contamination and the government does it is safe and in line with international guidelines. >> the latest on that story in tokyo. breaking news at the moment when it comes to the by now, pay later platform. quarterly trading update. we are seeing the company say business continues to accelerate and grow. third quarter revenue coming in at an increase of 80% year on year i just over 140 million australian dollars. transaction volumes coming in at 1.6 billion aussie dollars,
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saying when it comes to the u.s. business, which has been a key part of their expansion plan, delivering significant growth. quite a period after christmas. we will be speaking to the coo a little bit out. we will be getting his outlook when it comes to the performance in the last quarter but the revenue number, third quarter increase of 80% year on year. another big interview later on with the largest online higher education, the in -- and the cofounder and chairman will be joining us exclusively. coming up next, we get inside on the impact from alibaba's record fine and the outlook for chinese tech. the capital founder joins us next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> we're counting down to the start of trading. tokyo, seoul, japan's vaccination tried test drive is finally kicking into high gear after four months of start -- after performance of inoculations in the u.s. shots starting for 65 and up on monday. an encouraging sign of recovery for the nation. mitsubishi motors now feeling the impact from the global shift crunch. nikkei reporting the company will cut factories -- production
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by 7500 units in april. in south korea, the president holds a cabinet meeting another two hours with the newly elected seoul mayor. this is the first time for the opposition party official to participate in a cabinet meeting under moonves government. -- moon's government. the bank of korea is releasing money supply data noon local time. plus the latest south korean -- company exploring an ipo. haidi: chinese regulars -- we have been talking about forcing jack ma into an overhaul to be supervised like a bank after beijing hits alibaba with a record $2.8 billion fine, which investors saw as an expensive slap on the wrist. alibaba shares closed 7% higher
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on monday. u.s. shares were up closer to 10%. let's talk to stephen engle, steve? >> we have covered this very extensively. i want to bring in our next guest, she joins us now from laguna beach california. good to see you as always. this is a multifaceted story with alibaba and ant. we've gotten some sort of clarity now and both of those situations after four months of regulatory uncertainty. let's tackle the alibaba story, which is probably more straightforward. a one-off big fine of $2.8 billion. you alluded to me that you think this is win-win for ballot -- for the government and alibaba? how so? junheng: for the private sector, i think as long as it is not recurring, investors will likely
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dismiss it. the government -- it is a big chunk of revenue. $2.7 billion. any thing and billions is considered to be a big chunk of income. they inserted their power in the private sector. meanwhile, they get a large stream of fines coming in. investors, it is a win-win situation. >> what do you still like about alibaba daca -- alibaba? the find itself does not necessarily change the competitive landscape. the list of rectification's, the steps alibaba must take to comply with the antimonopoly laws, could be detrimental to revenue going forward, in particular if they have to change their practice of basically forcing merchants to choose alibaba over other
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competitors. isn't this pregnant -- revenue negative for alibaba? junheng: i think a lot of negativity is already priced in. i think alibaba is the rare combination of value and growth. e-commerce is still growing. the e-commerce market in china still growing in double digits. alibaba is still 60% of e-commerce in china. in addition to the resale aspect -- retail aspect of the story, you get the added clout. big tech, -- the added cloud. you have this rare investment in consumer and consumption upgrades as well as big tech. ai, 5g connectivity. all that. i think alibaba is a great investment.
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as you can tell, from the market, apparently there is a relief run. i think it will just go higher from here. >> but it is a warning shot to the big tech tycoons? going forward, does not have a cloud over these companies and will there be a time when other tech startups, they are trying to get a slice of the e-commerce by echo --? reporter: i think it is a love hate relationship between the government and private sector. the government knows it is important to realize in the next five years the blueprint of digitalization, digital economy,
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big tech, and the tech is mistry. -- tech industry. they need the innovation from the private sector. all the big tech companies are equal opportunity in this government crackdown. the good news is for alibaba the overhang is now removed. the management, which is very experienced, can go back to their marble -- their normal business and focus their resources on innovation and creativity in growing their business. it is still -- it is still the fastest growing internet company. we're talking about -- a lot of people are overly concerned about online traffic. traffic is just one side of the story. there is a lot of things that the platform could do to deepen
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the monetization. for example, compared to amazon, amazon has hundred 50 million users, shoppers, subscribing to the prime service. it is about 65 percent penetration. alibaba is trying to do the same thing but only has 30 million annual shoppers. subscribing to its social and. that is under 5%. the company can do a lot to deepen engagement, to deepen and grow by deepening the monetization. >> fairly quickly, what about the murky side of the story? the ant group, the fintech arm of alibaba, 50 3% -- 53% owned
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by jack ma, it is going to be folded into a holding company by the pboc and will have to abide by banking regulations. this is a big problem, because they get their biggest avenue from micro lending. -- biggest revenue from micro lending. what is the impact to alibaba and what does it mean to ant's attractiveness as a global ipo? junheng: it will get squeezed. when you become a financial holding company, your subject to regulation and oversight as if you were a bank. you're no longer considered to be a fintech or technology company. on the valuation side, your evaluation needs to come in line with the bank stocks. average bank stocks trade at one to 1.5 or single digit
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price-to-earnings. in the case of their financials, i think once again, a lot of negativity is priced in. the consensus is closer to hundred billion dollars for their ipo. alibaba owns 30% and that is a lot of ownership in ant group, but not so much contribution to the parent, to alibaba, which is a $600 billion market cap. >> you look at a lot of the chinese adrs listed in the u.s. and we have seen weakness in these companies. the index down 20% since february. baidu is down. alibaba's down. you've looked carefully at gsx.
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can you kind of sum up the reputation of chinese companies listing in the u.s. and how it is been hammered by these allegations of fraud and the delisting's of china mobile and all the overhang of the china- u.s. relationship? >>gsx is such a unique example. hopefully it is not representative of chinese adrs. it is such a rare situation where so many different independent research firms look at a company in such a great detail. so much online tracking, etc. and everyone reach the same conclusion, that is that the company is mostly fraud. the financials are likely to be greatly exaggerated. students and teachers and certificates are likely to be fake.
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it is a truly sad story. nowadays in china -- you have a new business coming to the u.s. with billions of dollars of market cap by a fraudulent business. it is beyond comprehension that a sophisticated -- that any institutional investor will possibly look at this company from the long side and get involved. we spent roughly 1000 hours looking into companies and talking to tutors and x employees and students and parents. nothing we found that can prove it is a real business. it is astonishing. >> jail born capital founder and ceo -- j: warren capital founder
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and ceo. always good to have you on television. shery: stephen engle there with a great conversation and insight on what is happening with alibaba. we will have more analysis ahead with moody's senior vice president on bloomberg markets china open at 9:30 a.m. hong kong time. bloomberg has learned the securities and exchange commission has been taking measures to clamp down on the spac market. what sort of changes can receive -- what sort of changes could we see? >> they put out a statement saying that transaction should be seen -- should be treated as a liability instead of equity in the cap accounting treatments. that impacts all of the deals,
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because most are issued in a unit, which means a share. the long-term impact is ongoing, it is an ongoing story. the short term is that we are likely going to see some companies sponsor teams having to refile documents and it will slow down the spac market more now that the resources that are refiling. shery: -- haidi: there is a daily of -- deluge of spacs trying to go public, right? >> the pipeline is robust. but the pace has slowed significantly in the past few weeks. that has to do with the sev [speaking foreign language] c -- that has to do with the sec
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taking an unusually long time to respond. they are looking at several things. they, treatment is one of them. -- the account meant -- the accounting treatment is one of them. they will have to refile. that means several weeks until they can go onto the market and do a roadshow. if the goal is to slow down the spac market and make it more reasonable than having 100 deals a week, then this actually will achieve that. haidi: our bloomberg deals reporter. let's take a look at markets now. sophie daca -- sophie? >> futures and singapore pointed to gains. a superlong debt option later to gay. the aussie bond space, you're seeing a yield -- a warning of
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more volatility ahead for aussie rates. in the commodities patch, you have wti edging higher for a second session. we are seeing a downside for materials in asia. this is a recovery traded space. we have rising bulk shipping rates adding to the drag on the commodities outlook. there is caution around higher u.s. yields in the stronger dollar and worries over china tightening liquidity to curb inflation. i'm pulling up a chart. this is china's csi flashing bearish signals. the indexes -- it was material stocks that led that drag for the index after authorities of out -- avowed they would move to
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rein in commodity prices. shery: coming up next, some big players on board including microsoft and google as it continues to grow. we will speak to the ceo -- coo peter gray. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> this is daybreak asia. i'm vonnie quinn with first word headlines. sources say the u.s. treasury secretary will decline to label china in current seem and if you later. -- label china a currency and if you later. -- currency manipulator. janet yellen and her team are considering rolling back some trump era policies. german chancellor angela merkel's succession took a turn. this csu is turning its back on the cdu. this sets off a tense showdown months before a national election. president biden calls for calm in minnesota after an officer shot and killed a 20-year-old black mentoring a traffic stop. by and said he spoke to the
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states governor and called for a full investigation into the death of daunte wright. body cam footage indicated that the officers shot him with a gun instead of a taser. this comes during the trial of derek chauvin in minneapolis. + global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. haidi: the popularity of by now, pay later services continue to serve -- surge. paypal announcing plans to enter the australian market. zip is becoming a global player with customer grope of 88%. here is zip chief operating officer peter great joining us from sydney. always great to have you on bloomberg tv. talk me through these numbers. were you happy with them?
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peter: good morning. thank you for having me. it is another outstanding bit of numbers and it is extremely pleasing to deliver strong growth in what is traditionally a week quarter on the back of the holidays. to be able to deliver the levels of growth with metrics of 20% year on year growth is outstanding. competition -- this early stage of market adoption -- i am extremely pleased with the momentum, particularly in the u.s.. haidi: with cba joining the middle of the fray in the middle of the year, and other banks potentially joining in, have you taken a look at how this potentially puts pressure on your margins long-term? peter: is a particularly
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innovative move for cba to join the buy now pay later phenomenon. i think we look forward to seeing how they establish consumer adoption. there is a number of components of the model that do not necessarily check the boxes for -- and while they are a formidable competitor, we believe they have a number of challenges to overcome to be successful. we are very well prate -- well-placed for market compression should that be an eventuality. we would do not see that in the short-term. this business has a strong revenue model. shery: what about here in the u.s.? we need to invest more in marketing? peter: i think it is a very competitive landscape. early stages of market maturity does lead to this competitive dynamic. we believe it is a good thing.
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quick pay is very well played that well place -- well-placed. it has a level of morality that will talk to our customers directly as opposed to the retail partnerships model, as you touched on that marketing and how we work with retail partners is a critical piece of the model. again, in early stages, ensuring exclusivity and retail partnerships is critical to fuel our growth. shery: with the vaccination drive here in the u.s. we are continuing to see more places reopen, same thing happening in the u.k. will some momentum you saw during the pandemic continue even after the reopen? peter: absolutely. it is very early stage of market adoption and market maturity.
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the business will be able to continue to accelerate. as economy opens, it will lead to more confidence more generally, which will assist spending. we have a differentiated business model where we capture our shared for in-store transaction volumes, so it is not just an online solution. as economy opens up, we will grow with that, and i will allow us to continue. haidi: the rba still mulling further restrictions on their sector, including the ability to charge surcharges. we've seen surveys where half the responders say they will not use the service if there is a surcharge. what sorts of conversations are you having with regulators? peter: the rba has indicated there is nothing for them to intercede into in the short-term. they are mindful that additional
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regulation can stifle innovation . regulation does provide consumer some harm. there's been no evidence that there has been any consumers harmed by our financial services. it's a sort of watch this space attitude for now. very early stages. again, it's how competitive forces play out in the marketplace. haidi: peter, very quickly, will you introduce cryptocurrency on your platform? peter: a very topical question. i think we have ambitions to be a digital wallet for our younger generations, both australian, american, and global consumers. we're looking at how we satisfy their needs. crypto is always a very high on
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the wish list. shery: peter gray, always great having you. more daybreak asia next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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haidi: let's take a look at the state of play when it comes to the start of trading. this is what we are seeing for training in new zealand at the moment. this is we see asian equities
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poised for a steady start to the tuesday session. the u.s. session near -- ended near record high as we going to the start of trading here in sydney. ♪
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shery: welcome to daybreak asia from bloomberg's world headquarters in new york. haidi: i'm in sydney. asia's major markets have just open for trade. our top stories this hour. asian stocks set for a mixed stop -- start with u.s. benchmarks near record highs. beijing ascent to avoid the label of currency manipulator. a bloomberg's scoop reveals the
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bite initiation will not reinstate it for china. -- the bite and admits ration will not reinstate it for china. alibaba has forced its that has been forced into its fintech into regulation. let's look at the start of trading here in asia. first, what are you watching? >> in japan we have the vaccination drive kicking off on monday. yen steady in the wake of that. the nikkei is adding .2%. keep an eye on the reaction to the machine tools order data for march. jumping the most since 2011. keep an eye on machine makers which are edging higher since the start of trade. switching to check in on south korea, the bok center release money supply data at midday, plus we have a two year bond sale from the government due out later. we are watching nvidia after
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they unveiled its microprocessors. samsung is under pressure. we are seeing moves to the upside. extending gains for a session, averaging to a september 2000 high on monday. the start of cash trade in australia. check in on the asx 200. we see little change after today -- after a two-day decline of the aussie. check out aussie bonds. there falling ahead of a new indicated sale. rbc estimates the yield curves will come in around 15 billion australian dollars. the u.s. ten-year rate is just above 167 this morning. pulling up the chart on the terminal for a bigger picture look to take a look at a stocks
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in april. we are seeing the index lose seem -- steam amidst the resurgence of infection. india with the second-worst infections in the brazil -- in the world behind brazil. the csi 300 now about 15% off the peak we saw in february, closing below 5000 on monday. this as chinese tech stocks continue to underperform amid regulatory developments, although we saw alibaba shares gained back on monday. against this background, some are more comfortable with growth schemes that are more aligned with chinese -- china's policy. shery: market expectations for u.s. inflation data also at a multiyear high despite policy makers downplaying risks.
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bright, always great having you on. -- brett. is not just expectations about u.s. inflation. saw cpi numbers in china hit markets, as well. what are you expecting? how big of a risk is this for equity markets? >> i do not think it is much of a risk. the market made a very positive interpretation. i think he made a point to make sure he was very clear about the positioning of the fed and what they are watching and how they will react. he was very clear about the timing of the first rate raises. i do not think any of the economic data is going to be anything stronger than the words on sunday and be interpreted. shery: lots of data out of china. you have called chinese fixed income the biggest trade we will see in our lifetime. what is the opportunity there? brett: there's a couple things
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that underpin it. give the emergence of china on a global scale. the importance of the economy, certainly led by the equities side. now the fixed income side is building out as the currency internationalize his. i think it is a big play because most global managers are overweight and over own u.s. dollar denominated assets. the switching to currency, r&b denominated currency would be very important to this. there is a huge delta between the 10 years, about 150 basis points. those are the backseats -- backseat drivers that global managers are severely underweight. if you were to get to a benchmark neutral weight of china and call it a 12%, 13% weighting based on spr, you would have about eight -- you have $1.5 trillion to get to an equal rate benchmark.
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i think that drives the momentum. i think it scales over time. we are in the beginnings of that play. haidi: f treasury refrains from calling china a currency and if you later, does that make any kind of symbolic difference to confidence in the currency? >> i think it does. i think it makes a positive sentiment play of the relationship, to be honest, which i think u.s.-china relationship is the real driver, it is what everyone is focused on. the president has stayed in the background since coming into office on china. he has maybe adopted some of the trump ideas, but i do not think he will follow through. i think not taking this moniker off china is a very important play in the future role between the two countries and certainly it is very good for the currency, as well. haidi: i want to get your view on spacs, we've been talking at
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length about them and we are hearing the sec is changing the accounting rules for the blank check companies. is this the start of the punch bowl being taken away, in a regulatory sense? brett: the market scaled extremely quickly. it grew exponentially. i don't think anyone could have seen that size that developed and how quickly funds went into the space. what i look at -- this is a mechanism. it is not going away. this is a more democratic way to go ipo. the market really likes it. but a lot of things got ahead of themselves. valuations got stretched. to be honest, people had expectations that were -- they just cannot be reached. all the things that come in, whether it is regulatory, a washout, whether premiums go away, whether timelines get pushed out into getting into the market. all those things are very
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important to setting a baseline. the baseline sets the risk curve. the risk curve easily allows pricing and for people to understand how good things are price, how poor things are priced, and there will be a lot of tears. there will be a lot of zeros. there i a lot of spacs in the market that are just not fit for purpose and are being driven by pure economic investors. there are no strategic investors involved in some of these. those will be hurt. at the end of the day, it is a good look at the temperature of the market. there is never a shortcut on the regulatory side. if anyone thought that that was the spac play, they were wrong. haidi: what's the semi play for you? >> i'm getting back into old the medics. u.s.-china relations are driving
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the semiconductor theme. you have a huge supply issue in the space. when you are investing, you want to look at the maddox that have -- the maddox that have longevity and this is a trade that has a long future because it does not have the supply, demand imbalance going away. the need for semiconductors increases every day with each new device put online. i think if you want to have a sound backdrop to an investment thesis, semiconductors is the place to be. they have not run like the rest of the market. i think there is a still a lot left in them. there's a sound underpinning. haidi: always great to have you, brett mcgonagle. let's get more on the chip shortage. >> president biden telling more than a dozen ceos that he has bipartisan support for funding to address the chip shortage. during a virtual summit with
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companies like gm, he read a letter to lawmakers supporting a $50 billion proposal for chip manufacturing and research. the white house as the meeting shows he is serious about addressing supply chain constraints. iran is claiming israel tried to attack its power grid. the move comes at a delicate time as the nuclear arms accord is trying to be reinstated. israel is neither confirming nor denying any involvement. the mayor is urging those to get tested for covid-19 after an outbreak linked to the south african variant. the mayor says anyone over the age of 11 should get tested as soon as possible. this comes as the u.k. reopens pubs, and hair salons after months of stringent lockdown measures. russia has suspended most air
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travel with turkey, citing rising covid-19 infections from russians returning from the country. the move cuts the key source of tourism revenue for turkey. a russian officials as 80% of russian cases from people returning abroad were from people coming from turkey. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. shery: still ahead, we asked of china's export growth may be sustained and senior china economist betty wayne joins us. we look ahead to gdp figures later this week. up next, secretary janet yellen will declined to name china as a concern -- currency manipulator. the details on that coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪
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shery: breaking news at the moment. we are getting the terms of a deal with sk i.e. tech plaintive to price its sole ipo on april 26. this will be the sk innovation battery separation unit. they are starting to take investor orders for an ipo on tuesday. we had heard that perhaps they were aiming to raise as much as $2 billion selling around 8.6 million new shares between 78,000 won in five hard thousand -- 500,000 won each. they are taking orders for the ipo starting on tuesday. haidi: let's get back to one of our top stories. the u.s. treasury secretary will declined to label china as a currency manipulator. that is according to a bloomberg school.
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officials are concerned beijing is masking intervention activities at state owns -- state owned banks. john, great to have you. cyclically we know china has not fulfilled the terms required to be a current seaman if you later for some time. what are the concerns here -- currency manipulator for some time. one of the concerns here? >> the concern is that there is always the possibility china might take advantage of the currency to try to gain a trade incentive or advantage. generally the central bank, the way the pboc acts in the market, is extremely opaque. there is always a suspicion that hangs over the market. shery: what is next for the currency? what are analysts saying in terms of whether we will see strength or weakness for the chinese yuan?
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>> the currency is trading quite a bit. we were up seven to the dollar, something like that, around june to july. we were down around 6.5 in march. it has weekend a bit recently. a lot of that is attributable to the u.s. obviously with stimulus and the infrastructure bill on the horizon. u.s. dollar has strengthened significantly. you have seen that reflected in the you want weakening. --yuan weakening. haidi: and another big story about the potential breakup of big tech in china. what are the implications in terms of the latest developments that ant group is having to go through now? >> chinese regulars are asking ant to become a financial holding company. to think stick out from the statement. beijing is saying, if you're
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going to provide financial services, we will regulate you like a bank. the same regulatory oversight. the other thing they are saying is that ant has a very popular payment system, alipay. regulators are saying that they cannot use that payment system to then redirect businesses to their lending businesses. those two things adding together -- added together basically make the outlook for profitability at ant much more subdued. that has reproductions for any potential ipo. the chairman has said as recently as last month that ant wants to do an ipo. at a much reduced profitability profile, that ipo and valuation falls into question. shery: still to come, blackrock and singapore team up against fossil fuels. we will hear exclusively from the ceo larry fink about the new
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joint venture that focuses on climate investing. this is bloomberg. ♪
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haidi: two of the world's most powerful money managers are joining focus -- forces to create a climate focused fun. they will back startups developing technology to reduce fossil fuel reliance. the pair are $600 million and are aiming to eventually manage billions. they spoke exclusively to bloomberg about their plan. >> to properly address the whole issue of decarbonization, we will have to develop new technologies. we do not have many of them today. or we have the technologies, but
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those processes, whether it is green cement or green hydrogen, or so many other things that in its carbon -- that emit carbon, the cost to do it green is expensive. to truly get to a net zero world, it is way beyond electric vehicles, solar, and wind. hydrocarbons are very cheap. they are cheaper than a bottle of water. >> a few nuts and bolts questions, if you do not mind, so people have a sense of scale. what are each of the two partners bringing to the table here? will a joint venture have its own staff? how many people will be involved? >> we are focusing our investment activities across a broad range of sectors. where we think we can make a
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difference in where they too can make a difference in reducing carbon emissions, especially as we aim for a net zero world in 50 -- in 2050. blackrock has an incredible space to bring into this joint venture. they have a very strong business model. they have the ability to source like-minded investors to join with us. they also have access to many companies which are able to, not just bring solutions that we think are needed -- those are companies that could be making these solutions. >> what does success look like for this venture? are there, call it kpi's? is very targeted return? -- is there a targeted return? are you expected to are you willing to accept a low return?
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>> the first subject is that we see that success should be determined by the evolution of innovative solutions in the decarbonization process. these solutions can bring down the carbon cost curve. that is the first sign of success for this joint venture. tied to that is the need for financial return. in order for this to have a journey where it can go on for a significant. of time, we have to be disciplined and how we make these investments as we focus on getting the right returns. so we can get more capital in the space and encourage others to do likewise as we are choosing to do in this joint venture. i would say we are not going to look at sacrificing returns read -- sacrificing returns. we believe at the end of the day the returns will come.
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we may have to wait for longer periods, given the early stage elements of this partnership, but we believe the returns will come. as we have seen in other sectors we have invested in at an early stage. >> can you put a number on that targeted return? >> we have a target in line with most early-stage funds, 20% ir. >> part of the plan here is to raise money from other investors. if you're successful in that endeavor, how big d's -- how big do you think this could get in terms of aum? >> the first pool of money should be no larger than $5 billion. we will test us. we will build it. we have proof of concept. then we will see. a $5 billion early-stage, late
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stage fund is a large pool of money. some of the investments will be quite small and some of them will be much larger. this is not tens of billions of dollars. it may lead to those types of large-scale investments, but it does not need to be that large-scale in the early beginnings of this venture. haidi: blackrock ceo larry fink speaking exclusively to bloomberg. let's take a look at what commodities are doing right now. we saw some downside pressure for prices all week after china's effort to send commodities inflation came into the floor. -- fore. really raising questions about the commodity super cycle we are seeing. copper futures under pressure. iron ore and rebar, still a
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little upside there. beijing will tighten controls on raw materials to help limit costs. here is a quick check of the latest business headlines. net income rose 15% to $1.2 billion as sales reached almost $6 billion. uber also seeing a recovery in ride-hailing demand as vaccination rates increase in the u.s. and more people get out of their homes. company saw its highest growth in bookings in a year last month, passing $30 billion on and analyze -- annualized basis while its delivery service grew 50% from a year earlier. a german carts maker is set to be seeking a near $12 billion valuation in a frankfurt ipo.
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we are told discussions are ongoing and the value and timing of the ipo could change. coming up next, china's economy is in focus. there is a slew of economic data coming out throughout the week. we will discuss this with senior china economist betty wang. plus, bill dudley says policymakers risk falling behind the curve with their need to see more progress. officials are committed to what the economy -- to let the economy run hot ahead of that. >> the growth we are smacking in the second half of this year is going to be strong. >> i think there will be more inflation in 2021 then what we have seen in recent years. >> headline inflation is likely to move above 2%. >> we know there is going to be a price surge this year. >> i know we have a long way to go. >> we expect in our baseline most of that to be transitory
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and for inflation to return later this year to around 2%. >> we want inflation to average 2% over time. we get that, that is when we will raise interest rates. ♪
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>> but president bill dudley says they run the risk behind the curve. policy acres are policy policymakers are evaluating fallout from the archegos. >> we are not talking about an exemption that increases bank risk. if we are talking about the idea
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of giving banks more room, we can just raise the leverage ratio requirement from of say, 5% to 5.5% on what is left. reserves are not risky and banks cannot control how much reserves they hold. that is determined by the fed. >> talking about the leverage ratio, you have talked before about concern of leverage building up in the shadow banking industry, a lack of regulation in that area. do you still see this as a concern and a pressing one or simply something to deal with later? >> i think it is pretty pressing. when you think about what happened last march, rescuing -- problems in the corporate bond space. most recently, we had the archegos issue. the non-bank financial sector is still rife with a lot of issues
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that need to be dealt with sooner rather than later. >> i need to switch to the present fed discussion. we have been making jokes this morning about transitory as well. you have talked about the british short-term, medium-term, long-term. now we have a transitory thing as we move along the timeline. does this make theoretical sense or are we kidding ourselves massaging the unknown? >> the fed is being patient. number one, they are not sure where full employment is. number two, they are not sure how fast inflation will rise once they get to full employment. number three, they are worried about inflation being unanchored to the downside. the change in policy is well motivated. before the fed basically tried to tighten monetary policy, a 2%
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inflation rate, full employment, monetary policy all at the same time. now they are not even going to try to tighten monetary policy. they expect inflation to move higher. inflation will be much lower in this regime then prior regimes. >> we said the risk. isn't it a commitment that they are going to be late? >> the question is how late. i thing they are making a commitment. the question is how late and how high will they have to raise short-term rates from keeping inflation continuing to accelerate. the risk is that recession will be more likely at that point because the fed will have to move not to a neutral monetary policy but to a tightening monetary policy. >> i think the most important question we can ask right now of fed officials, how will they know if they are wrong on this transitory issue? if you were on the fomc, how
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would you know if you were wrong? >> at the end of the day, i think they will look at the bubble this year, mostly due to base effects and frictional costs. they will be focusing more on the labor market. how many people are still unemployed from where we were in march 2020? right now, we have a shortfall in employment of 8.5, 9 million people. as those people get employed, the fed will start to focus on not transitory effects but really the one they are most concerned about, at what point do you get to such a tight labor market that it generates wage pressures that drive up markets. >> from the new york fed, william dudley. trade data due out this morning. economists are expected strong growth. chinese banks lent a record of -- record amount in the third
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quarter. let's talk about the implications with senior china economist at amz. given that we are seeing the recovery, the latest credit numbers suggesting that there is ample demand. do we see policy tightening in the near future? >> in general, we do not see any bank movement in china's monetary policy. particularly monetary policy rate. the pboc will need to strike the balance between maintaining a steady recovery and at the same time, the financial risk. this is something that needs -- delicately. if that is the case, we don't think pboc will be aggressively adjusting monetary policy in the near term if they do not see clear signs that the economy is on a firm footing, they will use open-market operations to adjust
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liquidity injections. >> is consumption still the missing puzzle piece when it comes to the next leg of this recovery? betty: yes, we can say that especially when it comes to the job market. the survey jobless rate, 5.5%, so that is on par with the tolerance level. if this kind of situation continues, that would suggest there is still some imbalance in the economy. the pboc cannot tighten monetary policy anytime soon. >> we have seen a gradual relaxation of containment measures across china. how much will that help? betty: i think china is still leading in terms of control and everything. that is why we have seen that
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china's recovery is also on the front line compared with other countries. i am not so concerned about the resurgence of cases in china. >> let's talk a little bit about the inflationary pressures. last week, we had those numbers showing the surge last week that hit markets. we know that when it comes to ppi, sometimes correlated with u.s. cpi, how big of a global impact would producer prices in china have? betty: historically, there is a strong correlation between china cpi and u.s. inflation. i think the connecting part between those is the prices of raw materials, particularly oil. oil is important and also a very important part of u.s. inflation. that is why the price index
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together, and at the same time, the largest global exporters, when china exports products to the rest of the world, some of the inflation that it has dramatically. i think this time around, there could be some difference between the transmission mechanism and the global inflation. i would think that china's cpi is driven by mobile commodity price rise. haidi: we have been looking forward to the quarterly gdp number on friday. some pretty crazy base effects playing out. take a look at this chart on the bloomberg which shows that in terms of the transparency effects, expecting year on year expansion, china reentering the growth trend.
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we talked a little bit about the drag from consumption. what is going on with the chinese consumer? we saw last year, the first time in 40 years that it was a drag in overall growth. betty: yes, so if you look at the china virus containment, the very strict lockdown, to some extent, provides a locked of job markets comedy jobless rate in china, it still has not shown very firm in terms of the recovery. that could be a very important part if china really wants to resume the momentum of consumers. i would think that this would be something that china would nek u
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>> before we let you go comedy secretary of the treasury janet yellen expected to decline naming china as a currency manipulator. does this make sense given the strength we have seen already? >> movement has been more driven by the market force in the past few years instead of the pboc putting a heavy hand into the fx market. if you look at the movement in the past few weeks for example, it has been driven by the strength of the u.s. dollar and more broadly, the market forces. i would not think that the pboc has been intervening as much as in the past. something that china's regulator would like to see. fx rates much more than before.
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in that sense, i do think we will see more volatilities in the currency -- more two-side volatility in the currency as opposed to one side movement. shery: we will have more later with an economist joining us at 10:30 a.m. hong kong. we are seeing trends reversing some of the declines we saw yesterday. japan, south korea, and australia gaining ground. a little bit of pressure from the chinese yuan. let's turn to sophie. >> as you just heard from betty, she expects two-way volatility. pretty much steady as she goes, following reports that janet yellen may decline labeling china a forex manipulator. check out the yen, slightly on the back foot. japan's vaccination campaign
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will catch up. goldman also expecting the aggressive fed tightening, those will be paired fact. the aussie dollar pretty much steady ahead of weekly payroll reports. aussie bonds lower as we are waiting on a new indicated bond sale from australia. cash equities trading and australia, seeing the index gain ground after he two-day drop. the decline in seoul. shares gaining ground. the company, battery sales to the ev startup. over in tokyo, japanese stocks with gains today. the biggest book to the benchmark, softbank, a rise. we also learned earlier this morning that tencent is planning
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a dollar bond sale. i want to draw attention to vietnam the trading value for stocks there has hit a record with the index, the best performer in southeast asia year to date. bloomberg economics expecting that they will receive the biggest windfall with a key factor of course being just how american consumers will spend, will it be on goods or services? haidi: don't miss out on an exclusive interview with the brazilian president thursday. he will be joining us to discuss the economy. coming up next, china ever grant falls behind its rivals. regulators try to rein in risk. we have that story next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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haidi: -- >> this is daybreak: asia. president joe biden told more than a dozen ceos that he has bipartisan support for funding to address the worldwide chip shortage during a summit. biden read a letter from lawmakers supporting his proposal for chip manufacturing and research.
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the white house says the meeting shows he is serious about addressing supply chain constraints. u.s. health officials say they have achieved their goals of a first covid vaccine shot to all people over 50 before april. those over 40 are expected to be eligible in the coming days. prime minister boris johnson's plans to further open the economy after lockdowns. german chancellor angela merkel's parties in her conservative alliance split. csu turning its back on the larger ccu. the move sets up a tense showdown this month before national elections. japan's government says it will release more than a million cubic meters of treated radioactive waters from the
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fukushima power plant into the pacific ocean. the controlled release will not likely happen for another two years and will last for decades. the decision ends years of debate over what exactly to do with the waste. global news 24 hours a day on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. shery: three key measures for debt levels at the end of last year, while almost half of the country's 66 major developers were able to avoid crossing the so-called three red lines. that raises refinancing risks forever grant. so, what are these three red lines, and what is at stake for ever grant? >> they are sticking out like a sore thumb right now because it is one of only two major firms
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that did not show any major improvement. what ever grant needs to do is improve its ratios, liabilities to assets, net debt to equities, and also cash to short-term. the chinese government had asked firms to meet a deadline by mid-2023, giving companies a three year transition period. while these metrics apply only to a small batch of very important large developers, most of the country's real estate companies have embraced it. the company has said that they are trying to reach the targets by the end of next year. a very interesting thing, the goal of cutting $100 billion in debt partially hinges on aggressive equity fundraising for non-core businesses, meaning that it is coming to the markets to raise equity, which some
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analysts say is a form of windowdressing. haidi: what does this mean for the broader property sector in china? >> the overall is that if you cannot meet these three metrics, you face the risk of refinancing. the overall message for the country's developers is to cut down there borrowing or debt levels. so, for the -- about 29% of output. we are seeing a wave of bond defaults led by the property sector. they are on high alert for any risks in the country's property sector. haidi: when it comes to this renewed fight on leverage, our we see in other sectors come under a renewed fight right now? >> right now, the key target for
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the property sector is a key priority. the deleveraging process is happening faster and that is driven by a combination of cutting leverage, spinning off non-core assets. so i think this trend is going to continue for the next few years. haidi: be sure to tune in to bloomberg radio to hear more from day's big newsmakers and get in-depth analysis from the daybreak team. you can listen via the app or bloomberg radio.com. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> is a check of the latest business flash headlines. australian payments company rising after posting and 80% year jump on job, posted by a surge in customers. they saw strong results from their unit. users in the u.s. rose 153% from a year earlier to 3.8 million. 6.4 million total customers at the end of last month.
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haidi: let's turn to air canada. it has reached a deal with the canadian government for loans and equity worth 4.7 billion u.s. dollars. the funds will be used to restore routes the airline canceled because of the pandemic. voting rights will be capped at just below percent. they will restrict share buybacks and executive pay. microsoft has made a massive bet on health care ai technology. the software giant confirms it is buying speech recognition pioneer nuance communications. microsoft will pay $56 per share in its largest acquisition since linkedin hsbc has reached an agreement with huawei over documents related to her extradition case. the bank says it recently
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resolved -- the ceo said the documents would show she did not mislead lenders into handling transactions with iran that violated u.s. trade sanctions. haidi: time to take a look at some of the stocks we are watching. >> keeping an eye on alibaba after the stock surge on monday over 6%. bnp paribas has it underweight. antitrust development healthy for the internet sector. we are watching the chinese banking shares. sectors may face headwinds, the rest of 2021. loan margins and loan risks. pulling up the chart to the
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terminal, closely watched for any signs of a rise in refinancing cost for state owned enterprises. china's dollar bond market after we saw a deal ground to a halt after the results delay, which spiked credit risk concerns among asset managers on the mainland. lubricant halogens expecting borrowing costs to rise in the short term. of course, we have tencent's dollar bond sale. fitch rating proposed sale with an a plus. to see how the market is faring so far this tuesday, we are seeing gains across the board. rising 1% higher in wellington. we are seeing stocks being grounded tokyo, up 1/10 of 1%. kospi on the rise. chip stocks trading somewhat mixed today after news unveiling
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the microprocessor from nvidia. move to the upside for the asx 200 as well this morning. shery: coming up, the growing influence of patient in the philippines. we will discuss with someone who held a senior position in the supreme court of the philippines. plus, scrutiny on china's tech giant. what alibaba's record fine means for its internet peers. and, don't miss an exclusive interview with the brazilian central bank president. on wednesday, he will join us to discuss the country's economy and interest-rate path. brazil was the fourth major economy to hike rates since the onset of the pandemic. our markets coverage continues as we look ahead to the start of trading in shanghai, hong kong,
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and shenzhen. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> it is 9:00 a.m. in beijing and shanghai. welcome to "bloomberg markets: china open." david: counting down to the open of trade. jack ma's group will address the business, giving into demands from beijing. the giant will be super

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