to normal. >> we really need to see the data in the second half. right now, it is about projections. >> what the fed will be afraid of his people will behave and the money will come to a halt. >> jay powell and the fed have been doing the right thing, and if anything, they will have to do more. >> i don't think the fed cares about the stock market level, per se, but they do care of the stock market were to slap. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with john kane, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jon: from our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance" alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz. i am jonathan ferro. it is the most anticipated cpi report in a long time. it comes a little bit later this morning. jon: and it is really that -- tom: and it is really the beginning of a wide set -- widespread anticipated data on this boom and far more, the

x-axis, i can't say enough about how to figure out how we moved from q2 of 2022. jon: the officials, and the next 24 hours, you will be tried to shape -- they will be trying to shape the narrative big-time. the white house we will catch up with later on. abby seen the fed speak today into tomorrow? we hear from the vice chair of the federal reserve, the chair, everybody will have their say. i imagine they will be singing from the same sheet, transitory, transitory, transitory. tom: it will only get you so far. it is also about the real economy. it is not just to say we will get 8% gdp. it is the makeup of that 8% of gdp. jon: base of facts, basic facts. we don't have the buzzwords into this one. lisa: and we will be drunk by the time at a 7:00 a.m. if we are talking about transitory all the time. it will be hard to know what to do with the data. if it is higher than expected when talking about cpi, what will that mean in terms of longer-term projections?

does that curtail inflation? it is not good a food and gas prices are going up quickly if wages are not following. jon: i'm looking forward to our conversation later. let's look at the price action. on s&p 500, futures, a little bit of a bounce in the last 10 minutes. up five points. 0.13%. into the bond market, yields with a left, approaching 170 again. 169 on 10 yields higher by couple basis points. deason the last 24 hours. more supply later, lee so -- lisa will run you do that. 118.95 on your -- and .18 95 on euro-dollar. lisa: a lot of uncertainty around the cpi we will be getting in about 90 minutes time -- no, at 8:30, two hours. [laughter] i'm trying. it's because we say transitory so many times before 6:00 a.m. that i'm questioning my own

words. cpi expected to be too poised -- 2% versus the 1.7% last time. good inflation versus bad inflation. if prices that we do for the stable, we pay for the staples, goa too quickly, is this problematic for a global economy that is depending on the u.s. to be the engine? then today, we will also get the monthly opec report on oil demand and supply, interesting to see how much mobility is picking up in the u.s. and europe. to the points you were talking about, 1:00 p.m., $24 billion sale of 30 your notes. yesterday's tenure auction went well. the thirty-year auction might be hairier considering it is so uncertain, the longer term inflation picture. they are all ok, it is just a seven-year that has been from -- problematic. jon: we need to sit on this for a second. there's a reason i think the white house will join us later. they need to make sure this narrative does not get away from them around the inflation story.

there is still a lot more work to do in washington, d.c. the supply story on the treasury side is a key part of that. tom: the treasury yield is where it is. it has come back a little bit, for basis points, over the last 24. i do not know where the range is to break out, but that will be based on what core cpi does. i cannot emphasize enough how the academic literature of the last month or two months has been a reaffirmation of the sanctity of core inflation, ex-energy, e-housing with all -- ex-housing with all of the oddities there. i look into corn inflation that will fold into the right market and dialogue. jon: you think we would be having this conversation in the way we are if larry summers hadn't written the op-ed several weeks back? tom: that's political at the margin. yes, it is germane, but i think there is a set of people analyzing constructively what is

going on with the majority democrats washington, and part of it is what mr. summers said. jon: we are about to see sustainable inflation in the united states. this is what the federal reserve has wanted for a long time. the idea we are talking about a 2.5 inflation trend 12 months after turning the global economy office remarkable -- off is remarkable. adam, set the stage for this inflation trend in 2000 -- in two hours. what are you looking for? adam: thanks for having me. i'm looking for a lot of fuss behind nothing. it is really about technical things like base effects. just when we bounce back from the kind of shutdown we had, you are going to end up with readings of inflation and will have these bottlenecks. as you and lisa were joking about transitory, the transitory issue is really going to come in 2022.

that is where the real data is and the focus should be. frankly, that is where those representing the white house should be talking. the fact that there will be some inflation for the next few months showing up in non-core, which tom points out is not going to worry, the fed that -- the fact that the fed is acting like they're worried to get ahead of this, people should not worry. tom:tom: the inflation study we have is posted into services and goods inflation. is that a correct study echo adam: it is a correct first cut but not a sufficient cuts. -- study? adam: it is a correct first cut but not a sufficient cut. people have been looking at breakdowns of inflation into bigger components, which as you saw the components, the significant ones. i think the two key components were, as jon mentions, wages, because that is ultimately what

we care about instance of its own terms and the sense of one thing that does lead to future inflation. the other thing, which i have been emphasizing for weeks is health care inflation. health care is 18%-20% of the economy, one of the services where there is genuinely pent up demand, putting off procedures that we consider elected because of the pandemic, and which there will be a shortage of available supplies. either it will get rationed by people waiting longer or crisis will rise. to me, it is wages and health care, the subcomponents you want to focus on. lisa: when do we know whether the wage inflation we are starting to hear about with labor shortages, whether it is transitory as well or that has longer-lasting legs? adam: it is a good question, lisa. there is no simple answer because wages, as we know, have been getting compressed for a couple decades now. the share of gdp growth going to wages has been down versus

proceeding decades. there is some way you could have wages grow without it necessarily turning into inflation. basically, these workers get to take back some of the money that capital is holding onto, and that is hard for the fed to discern the difference, because you don't get the data until later and because it looks political. there is no easy call on that. tom: doctor, we like to get in front of the zeitgeist. sometimes we fail and succeed. i'm going to succeed in anticipating your essay out any day for the may issue. you speak of the nostalgia we all have. jonathan ferro is incredibly nostalgic, lisa abramowicz bathes in nostalgia, and we are doing it about trying to find an america, an lentic policy from another time and -- an atlantic policy from another time and place. what is a mean for viewers and listeners as we wax nostalgic? adam: thank you for setting my

forthcoming article, and what i mean when i talk about price nostalgia is this fixation that american politicians have on heavy metal, on men bashing machines, running fisheries, all the sorts of visuals you see on the bruce springsteen gene commercial about what is the important, the good way to have a middle-class job. it is nostalgia, because those types of jobs, there are only so many of those, even in the best of times. they will only add a couple percent of the workforce doing that. it will not help the rest of the economy, and it further ignores people of color, who are predominantly in low-wage services jobs. whereas the old manufacturing sector is overwhelmingly white men. this just further reinforces the

sense of frustration and privilege. the other point to make is it won't work. there are people that think you can do this, fixating on manufacturing, because you will buy off the fascist, but it will not buy them off because it will reinforce their special status. i am urging the biden administration to look at passing nostalgia and bringing up jobs for everybody. jon: an important essay, and we appreciate your time always. adam posen,, peterson institute president. let's talk about it. 245% is the estimate year for your on cpi core -- 2.5% is the estimated year for year on cpi core. we are switching back on the economy in the united states and firing it up with stimulus, yet still, the estimate is only -- and i say only 2.5% on cpi.

this is what the fed has been looking for for a long time, and they have needed the monster of all base effects and a ton of fiscal stimulus as we reopen to get anything in and around 2.5%. tom: and you have to sustain there. it's important to say they can overshoot, and take the pendulum of inflation and bring it nicely above 2%. however you measure it. but then it has to sustain before you get to the fear. i would want to point out that not only is inflation a big deal today but retail sales in two days will probably -- jon: thursday, the number is going to be huge. we have to distinct among the conversation. there is a men's concern around the transitory story. the word i keep hearing is humility, be humble about what is about to happen in the next 12 months because we don't know. lisa: without a doubt. the uncertainty in matt -- is

massive, including the cash pile of extra savings people say might go into the economy or might not. jon: everybody has a take on this inflation credits, including the white house. a member of the white house counsel economic advisors will join us at i believe 7:45 eastern time. your equity market is up 2% -- two points on the monde -- bond market. from new york city for our audience worldwide, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, and china, experts and imports soared last month. global recovery as well on track. exports rose 31% from a year ago, lower than the median forecast. attorneys imports increased 38%, beating expectations.

bloomberg learned janet yellen will not name china a currency manipulator in her report due this week. that allows the u.s. to sidestep a new battle with beijing. during the trump era, the administration was accused of politicizing the report by abruptly naming china a manipulator outside of its normal schedule. near minneapolis, a second night of protests following the fatal shooting of a black man by a police officer. the police chief says the officer meant to fire a taser and not a handgun as the man struggled with other police. hundreds of protesters faced off with police last night when they would not disperse. the police used tear gas and flashbang grenades. it is a record-breaking blank check merger. southeast asia's most valuable stock is going public in a spec deal with ultima or. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on "bloomberg quicktake," powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in

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>> i think there will be more inflation in 2021 then what we have seen in recent years, and i

would like some of that to flow through to inflation expectations so inflation expectations become better centered at 2%. we have missed our inflation target to the low side, really most of the time since 2012, so we want to re-center inflation expectations at 2%. this is an ideal time to do that. jon: this is an ideal time to do that, this is what the fed wants. james bullard, the federal reserve bank of st. louis president speaking to bloomberg. good morning. alongside lisa abramowicz and john -- tom keene, i am jonathan ferro. equity market, unchanged. futures, 41.2 two. into the bond market, yields into this inflation print higher, by two basis points, 1.68. crude oil up i a little. let's turn back to the president

briefly who alluded to the idea that once we got to 75% vaccinations in this country, maybe we could discuss tapering bond purchases. i find that interesting, because given the current rate in the united states of america according to our bloomberg tracker, 3.2 million per day, little more than that, the average over the last seven days. three mom months -- more months and we beat it. that could be interesting later this summer. tom: i was taken by that's desisted. jon: no idea where it came from either -- by that statistic. jon: no idea where it came from. the market had a little bit of reaction to say the least. tom: i know the cardinals last last night -- lost last night. jon: i'm here for the valuations, time. keep going. [laughter] tom: good morning in st. louis this morning. marty schenker is the only one in the room who also listens to camo ask as a kid -- to kmox.

on the ionosphere and all of that. mark crumpton was listening to that. martin, let's get to inflation and the politics of it. this come. that's comes down to in the political economy is the distribution of a boom economy. do you assume that you are -- with all you are taking in from bloomberg that there will be inequality here and that this is a boom economy that will only help the haves? martin: there's a real effort to make sure certainly at the fed that a recovery does capture the least fortunate in our society, which is what is driving this whole notion of the fed staying easy for longer. the interest-rate environment is critical for this policy to go forward, because an unexpected rise in interest rates will challenge all the stimulus efforts of this biden administration. the ability for them to do that. tom: including the dumps of the

gdp, which is on 5/6 standard deviations are now. if i look at the distribution of a boom economy, he comes back to the housing market, which i associate with the haves. the haves have a lot of money now. up goes housing because of the shortage of supply, and that circles back into the inflation calculation. >> that's right. and then there is a whole issue of getting, you know, home equity loans that support the people who have the houses, whose value is rising in an environment of relatively low interest rates that just drives the economy even more force -- even more forcefully, but it starts with those that have not. jon: bernstein will join us in about an hour 20 minutes time. they are trying to control the narrative around this inflation. larry summers took it hold of the narrative for them and started asking questions they did not want to hear. martin, based on the people you are speaking to an washington, what has this white house had

control, especially since they're trying to do more? martin: they're trying desperately to control the conversation, as evident by the fact they are constantly pitching the economic team to be on networks like this one to explain themselves and defend their policies, and sort of bang the table that they really do want this recovery to touch the lowest rung of the population. they know they have a problem, so they are trying to address it. lisa: what is the build on that with respect to messaging? do most members of congress by that any boom we see is transitory and the underlying economy is on a trend of pretty low growth with increasing disparities between the wealthy and the poor? martin: i thing there's no -- marty: i think there is no question about it.

that is one of the narratives they have to address. i do think it is important to note the fed and jay powell specifically has taken a strong position that for employment, if it does not capture the lowest rung of the economic strata, will not be there goal. they are going to -- their goal. they are going to keep going until they see that portion of the population come up in status. lisa: yesterday, president biden held a bipartisan meeting turned to paint this as a joint effort in washington. it was there any progress made? marty: on the semiconductor front? lisa: semiconductor and also the $2.25 trillion stimulus. he had two where he was trying to give a sense of appealing to republicans. i'm wondering if there's anything real behind that that could potentially have legs? marty: on the semiconductor front, there is indeed a consensus on both sides of the aisle that the government needs

to inject itself to become less reliant on international suppliers and help build up the u.s. industry. i do think, if they split that part of his economic recovery plan, it would probably get bipartisan support. on the other parts, forget it. the leadership, mitch mcconnell, and the mainstream republicans in the senate will not go for any of it. lisa: it's always good to catch up -- jon: marty schenker, it is always good to catch up there. we have to underline the importance of this moment for this administration, the data over the next couple months, we will see strong retail sales come this thursday. bloomberg economics looking around something around 10% and others more. inflation will be about 2% for the next couple months. we have no idea what it looks like, and we know the consensus, but i think you have a -- but you have to have a degree of humility. this administration wants to do more. anytime you see and inflation

prints not of 2%, retail sales exploding, we can explain why, but every time you see the data point, you will have less reason to get support across the aisle, to deliver more stimulus. on the infrastructure front, there needs to be a much bigger push. to get the republicans to come along with them, i have no idea how to do that, but it comes back to underline how important the data points are with inflation and thursday with retail sales. tom: the data print that matters for washington is how much votes -- how many votes they will get into thousand 22. we are closer in april then we were in january, to wear that calculus really starts to slam in. they will pilot on, for showing dollars. we heard $6 trillion of some stimulus yesterday -- $4 trillion. i heard $6 trillion of some stimulus yesterday. jon: the campaigning for that is starting to end. tom: about 10:00 p.m. on a

tuesday night. jon: from new york city this morning, i'm jonathan ferro. on bloomberg radio and tv through the next couple hours, on "bloomberg surveillance," the focus, cpi in america. the print is two hours away. this is bloomberg. ♪

matt: for our audience -- jon: for our audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance." s&p 500 futures, positive. the nasdaq had a bit of a rough time over the last couple days. down around 13 points, no drama. russell outperforming by little more than .1% after peaking in the middle of march. we pulled back by five percentage points since then, which into the bond market, that cyclical effort has stalled. 1.7 year -- 1.74 is where we peaked. right now, yields are up by a couple basis points. i think we get $24 billion of 30 year debt later as lisa indicated earlier in the program. a big conversation about inflation.

what has happened to gold this year? inflation, inflation, cpi higher, higher, supply chain bottlenecks. gold on the year, down nine percentage points. bitcoin, record high, up 116% year to date. bank of america came out with their surveys this morning and asked participants about the survey if the equity market was in a bubble and 7% said yes. don't send the hate mail to me. send it to someone else. 74% of respondents in the new survey say bitcoin was in a bubble. tom: if there's any indication of that, bitcoin would be -- i will take the love notes and make sure jon gets love and kisses. while lisa always gets love and kisses. marty patel with us right now. not only does marty patel do well with the fixed income she is noted for but also as a warm

and supple ability to move over to the equities space. i love your phrase value priced for future gross. where is the value pricing right now for future growth? >> i think we are really in an inflection point. we have a narrative that interest rates will move up, inflation will move up, so therefore, depending on the value side, we have had a big rebound and a lot of the names. the question in my mind, will they have earnings growth fundamentally higher than the growth lagging because people are feeling, with a long duration, that they would be more vulnerable as rates go up. we will see about rates going up or if we are just in a trading range, which will determine the metro picture for socks -- stocks. tom: there is the idea that it

is priced into the market but there will be a conference call or 12 and everyone will go out in a frenzy of good or bad, depending on how -- what they hear on a conference call. our conference calls really that much of a mystery to you? >> i think at a time when people are uncertain whether we are big inflection points, we will now have an explosive increase in trader depth, an explosive economy on the upswing from covid of last year, that people are looking for direction, especially right here. we have not really started to see what companies are saying, what their outlook is, especially in the second half of the year on the first quarter. we have earnings growth this quarter and second quarter. lisa: the fund manager survey, that john was talking about, it showed 32% of respondents believed the biggest tail risk was a bond market tantrum. do you think that is an accurate pricing more accurate reflection

of the risk? marty: over the short-term -- >> over the short-term, it has had influence on the sectors, people concerned with this increase in government debt, how much upward pressure there will be. right now, it looks to me as if the 10 year is in the trading range of just under 2% on the high side, which we had not gone to. unless we can see inflation on the same basis, i'm not sure we can break out that, even with the increase in bond that. lisa: what does inflation on a sustained basis mean to you? we have a whole bunch of definitions from fed officials and it is fuzzy. when will you know it is sustained and not transitory? >> what i will be looking for is what is happening to wage growth overall. is there wage inflation? that is really the biggest part of the economy, inflation. sure we will have commodity price increases, shortages, something going up, but unless

we can get the inflation engine to go along, i don't think we can make a case for much higher rates. jon: we will have macro babble around the cpi debate. you manage your money right now, where'd you put the capital to work right now? margaret: we are right in the middle. i think we have had a big swing in pe since we swung from growth stock to value cyclical, but i think that has pretty much leveled out as far as value. now, the support thing will be earnings growth when companies continue to have above average earnings growth, above and beyond they bounce back. that is what i'm looking for, a source of earnings growth that companies that -- companies can have. jon: margaret patel over at wells fargo. do you think value of what we have seen more recently, can i

continue ny? margaret: he is certainly a brilliant guy, and i value his opinions, but to me, it is more of a history book standard of how economic cycles work, and i think this point in the economy, we are at a different phase because of the increase in government debt, the lack of support, lack of growth in the emerging market. u.s. and china look like they are the two drivers. i'm not sure we get have a classic rebound, continuing growth in these cyclical sectors, and inflation ticking in. i would love to see it, but i'm skeptical at this point. tom: you have the record for most rubber lunch meals and the equity market in boston. of anyone i know. your thoughts on the spac uproar? when everything is said and done, especially the spac uproar and accounting of the last two

weeks or so is a debate about circumventing the initial public offering market and some of the signposts of 1934 as well. is your radar up on spac's? margaret: no, because i think they are just an indication of the fluff, the excess you get when you have low interest rates , easy money, and low risk levels. we have had few blowups. and how creative wall street is, specs have been a long -- around for a long time, and in the last year, they have become trendy. also, where we have a real scarcity of exciting ipos coming to market, spac's have taken that place in the ipo market in place of something new. tom: is it as transparent from where you sit as the red herrings we have read long ago and far away? margaret: now. i think the fuse is still burning, and we have more.

i do not think we see any signs that we are in a perilous state. with the fed and the financial meltdown, i think that gives market participants assurance that we should not have any kind of notable correction here in the market. jon: good to catch up with you. good to get your thoughts on a range of issues specifically on how you put your money to work. margaret patel, wells fargo asset management senior portfolio manager. pushing back against this idea that value in the recent outperformance we have seen, we can extrapolate that out several years and maybe through the soulcycle. tom: what is so important it's about how supple margaret patel mattel is --margaret patel is about moving through asset classes. i think it is an extremely fluid moment. jon: humility was the word we used about 40 minutes ago, and i think you need that. lisa: i'm still stuck on one

point that you made, that the macro babble we would hear all morning. i would argue that matters more than ever, especially with this value versus growth debate. i'm thinking about this $1.8 trillion of extra savings the economists say is in the united states. will it all go into the market spending, how will it be deployed? how many of these consumer facing companies will benefit from the cash file? this is one of the biggest mysteries underpinning inflation this year. jon: to be clear, i am the biggest advocate of macro in the market. [laughter] i think that is the important conversation. you have a group of economists talking about what inflation might look like into 2022, and were defined -- we defined whether it is transitory are not . tom: the key thing there is to

put money to work. it is front and center, and the next question is not putting money to work, it is what will corporations do? what is the behavior? it is a word i've used a lot in the last three to four days, the behavior around tax law, the behavior we see within the pandemic, looking at the merkel headlines out right now from germany, the behavior we will see within this huge fiscal impulse in america. jon: i know you are looking for bank earnings later this week. tom: anything to do with a cash. jon: jp morgan is very much in focused, one of the biggest overweight's right now. he saw that out of bank of america, too. lisa: the biggest overweight since back in may of 2018. if you take a look at the markets, they have been sleepy. we have been joking about that, but trading volumes have been down dramatically. it is the dealmakers. that will be driving earnings. jon: i will talk about that, the stalling out in some of the

cyclical trades. copper stalling out, the crew traded, stalling out. small caps trade, stalling out, treasury yields moves, stalling out. we have just seen those moves lose a little steam in the last several months. tom: but what about the equity market? it is all focused on the equity market. jon: in the s&p, we are doing ok, artery? lisa: to be clear to our audience, we all had different launch pads, the data that lisa looks at or john looks at, and when i look at. what i see is one quarter blinking red and green, and the rest is asleep. jon: cpi is coming up at 8:30. we need to talk about this pandemic as well, with dr. amos a doubt a. -- dr. amos a doubt. 41.20 -- 4120 on the s&p 500. unchanged.

yields are higher by a couple basis points on the 10 year maturity. 168.64 -- 16a.64. down by couple tense of 1%. from new york city, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. hundreds of companies are urging president biden to speed up action in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. microsoft, walmart, and a pple say the u.s. economy is threatened by climate change. they are considering a target of 50% or higher reductions in emissions by 2030. president biden says he has congressional support for government funding to address the semiconductor shortage. that forced automakers around

the world to shut down production lines. the president spoke with more than a dozen ceos. he says there is bipartisan support for his $50 billion proposals for chip manufacturing and research. securities is cracking down in -- on a key element a blank check companies, agencies issuing new guidance on warrants, which are issued to early investors in the deals and may no longer be considered equity instruments and may instead be liabilities for accounting purposes. i could disrupt filing the new spac. oil output levels in the u.s. are nearing levels not seen since the start of the pandemic. production in the permian basin, the u.s.'s most prolific shell patch, is set to reach a one your high. the prices are making drillers more confident. oil gained almost 35% over the last four months. the u.k. has hit its mid april target to offer its first coronavirus vaccine to all over

50's, a significant boost to prime minister boris johnson's plan to unlock more of the economy. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on "bloomberg quicktake," powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. ♪ i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> in areas where we are seeing a big resurgence, there should be some reasonable restrictions

on venues where we know there will be a high risk of transmission. things to keep in mind is community transmission drives infection. the more cases you have, the more cases you have. that is true even if people are vaccinated, because the vaccines are not perfect. jon: that was the johns hopkins bloomberg school of public health by his dean -- health vice dean. here's the price action. it is a quiet tuesday morning into a really important inflation number, that really adds fuel to the debate of the moment. inflation in the united states of america. yields higher by couple basis points. i will keep this brief. euro-dollar, a break lower, down 2/10 -- down .2%. u.s. futures, 41.19, on the s -- 4119 on the s&p 500, unchanged. tom: economists told bloomberg yesterday that we need to see a

75% of asked -- 75% vaccination rate. we speak with a doctor from johns hopkins. don't quiver. we don't need fed policy out of you. we will get that out of james in st. louis. i have to ask you about the number they gave me emea pause, a 75% vaccination rate. is that feasible in the scientific literature? >> it is feasible to get up to 75%, but if you look at the whole population, we have a vaccine only approved for ages 16 and up, and a lot of the population are below 16. i think that will be difficult, until we get pediatric indications. then we have to deal with vaccine hesitancy. it will be a challenge to get to that level, but i do not look at that number and say that is the end-all, even though it may be the herd immunity threshold. do we get enough of the high risk populations vaccinated, enough of our nursing home patients vaccinated, that we

never have hospitals into crisis. i tend to differ from some people because i focus on hospital capacity driving people's behavior, because this vaccine is causing the virus to lose its ability to put hospitals into crisis. every day, as a vaccine goes into someone's harm, the virus became is more -- becomes more tame. we are getting there, even if our cases are at 70,000 per day, they are different than december and january. jon: the immediacy -- tom: the immediacy of this is tangible with angela -- angela merkel mentioning care units. cases or deaths, which are you focused on? margaret: deaths. -- >> deaths. in the united states, we have been able to decouple this successfully. it is much different than a couple months ago. and the people getting infected

and hospitalized are those who have not had access to the vaccine. many states in the country are opening vaccine to the entire population, so this will end as we get more vaccine into people's arms. europe has been unable to vaccinate at a high degree, which is why they are facing a totally different trajectory than the united states, because we have been successful enough to stay ahead what is -- stay had the surgery cases. lisa: you said pediatric indication, when we had that for the vaccine, otherwise saying, when can kids get inoculated? what is your sense of the timeline and how crucial this is to ending the pandemic echo and i hear about this every day for my kids. >> we know pfizer has applied for an emergency with authorization for ages 12 to 15. the vaccine has approved a 16 and 17-year-olds, so i think that will likely come before the fall, before schools open in the fall. i think it is less crucial to end the pandemic.

i think it's important to do and that will make a lot of activities safer, including school execute liquors -- school extracurricular activities and sports. but i think, to me, the pandemic has always been about trying to make sure this is a much more manageable respiratory virus because we would not get to covid zero. that was a false notion people put forward. it was always about keeping this to a manageable level where you don't have people dying or hospitalized at the rates they are. i think we will likely get there by mid-summer based on what we are seeing with the vaccine rollout and on a day-to-day basis in hospitals and the rates of hospitalizations falling in most states. even states where it has gone up, it was nowhere near prior surges. we did not have the advantage of a vaccine for the vulnerable populations then. jon: you started this conversation by manson -- mentioning vaccine hesitancy. i wonder if we already start to see signs of that in certain places.

kentucky, roughly 42% of the vaccines went unused from march 29 through april 2. we have seen numbers from saturday that we have had a vaccination day not a 4 million, and the daily averages 3.21 according to our tracker. do you see signs of hesitancy, and should we prepare ourselves for that number to flatten out and roll over? >> i definitely think vaccine hesitancy will be a driver of vaccine numbers. as we become less supply constraint and demand constraint because the demand population, maybe somebody lower risk, will not have the same enthusiasm of the vaccine is the early priority people including health-care workers, nursing home residents, high-risk individuals. we will have to detail people and sell people on this vaccine, talking about its benefits and how safe they are and showing how this vaccine is to pass normalcy and how cdc guidance change for vaccinated people,

hopefully faster with more iterations. i think that will show people the vaccine is a safe and easy way to get there lies back on, the country back to where we were in 2019. jon: i hope we are all -- i think we are all looking to that renewed -- tom, you started this conversation by mentioning 75% off the back of the interview with the st. louis fed president. less talk about how long it would take to get there. 3.2 million per day is your latest. if you extrapolate that out, and i think there are nuances around doing that, but if you extrapolate that over the next three months, it would get there, three months to get to 75%. tom: what i really like is to think about the day after day grind. we are talking about may or late may like we used to talk about july or august. we set up -- i don't know if that is the right english, we

sped up our anticipation of where we are, and that is that joy. jon: you reminded me of something a few months ago, i used to have conversations with people. i think things change in may, i think things change in june. here we are talking about the same month in a different year. lisa: we are all like scarred -- we are all scarred from this. they're throwing out a new vaccination rate on how -- when they taper. what other criteria -- what are the criteria to start tapering? this is important. tom: there is one benchmark in fed history, wage inflation. if labor wages go up, everyone starts sweating. lisa: the key question is, how does the vaccination rate of 75% feed into these economic barometers? if we have already had people getting the virus, kids not worried about hospitalized -- being hospitalized? jon: i will probably take a guess and say that is probably

not the headline. i assume when he was alluding to was an economy that reopened and got back to normal. that would set the stage for the debate on balance sheet extension, but i cannot guess what he was thinking. tom: some was a transitory please? jon: transitory. [laughter] ♪

♪ >> pandemic is definitely coming under control. economic activity is returning to normal. >> we really need to see the data in the second half. right now it is about projections. >> what the fed is afraid of is that the money starts burning a hole. >> the fed and jay powell have been doing the right thing, and if anything they are going to have to do more. >> they do care if the stock market were to collapse. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: for our audience worldwide, good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. the headline dropping a class -- dropping across the bloomberg terminal