monitoring the indicators to understand the dynamics, which we expect, helping families get the relief that they need to helping states and localities get the resources they need, safely reopening schools. all of that is going to contribute to economic growth and going to have some impact on prices, as we are seeing. but the key point is distinguishing between heat and overheat. the overheat story, which we argue is something we are going to watch carefully, but is a lower risk probability than the importance of the other measures i talked about, that has to be gauged as well, and i talked about how we take it should be done. lisa: there's a confidence, too, the confidence to go out and spend from that cash pile. how concerned are you about the issues with vaccines slowing growth more materially? dr. bernstein: we are going to

have to continue to look, as we do, at not just the monthly and quarterly data on consumer spending, travel, seating at restaurants. we are going to have to look at the daily and weekly implications of this. i think that has been actually a real advance in economic studies in this period, which is the availability of very high frequency data that we now have enough to link it to the more traditional indicators, so we can know that the credit card data gives us information about consumer spending. what it was increased confidence , increased re-engaging with commerce, and the kinds of price effects we have been discussing so far. so far, we like what we are seeing in that regard. jonathan: i for one, as a journalist, appreciate the increased transparency.

i do wonder whether you are worried about losing control of the narrative around inflation over the next couple of. -- next couple of months. dr. bernstein: i don't know. i guess i don't think about it in sort of control of the narrative story. maybe i should. i think about it much more in terms of the substance of the pressures on prices, and just speaking honestly and transparently and truthfully about what we judge to be the case. the inflation dynamics are something i have studied for many decades, and i would argue that i was one, not the only 1, 1 of the folks who argued that the natural rate of unemployment was really many percentage points lower than was previously thought, and that gets us to a place where we are having a much more rewarding job market we got to truly full employment. as we predicted, inflation pressures were quiet sent --

work we sent -- were quiescent. i think we just have to keep investigating it. tom: you know what? it is about a bag of groceries. i had more comments from viewers and listeners in the last 48 hours on food inflation that i have had in the last three years. is it here to stay? dr. bernstein: this is one of the ways economists can really pass off -- really piss off normal people. tom: that's right, and you are leading the way, who talk about food inflation. [laughter] dr. bernstein: my wife, but i talk about food and gas prices, she just shakes her head at me, but that is the gauge that economists and the federal reserve use to try to get at the underlying signal because food and ill or g much more volatile. it is very much a global market. so we want to understand

domestic price pressures. we really do have to look at the core. in terms of food inflation, these are some of the sectoral dynamics, and we do expect to see pressures and some face-to-face services, say, restaurants -- tom: i don't mean to interrupt, but we are going to run out of time. how is the biden adminstration, and how are the elites of washington, going to react to for percent plus food inflation -- react to 4% plus food inflation? dr. bernstein: first of all, i am not going to lean into the federal reserve's lane because it is their job to think about these sectoral impacts on prices. i think where we are coming from, we have to look at the american people's nutritional needs and make sure they are meeting them, both in the rescue plan and in forthcoming ideas that you are going to hear about and families plan. we are taking very seriously the

ability of people to meet their nutritional needs. it is something that we think about a lot. we follow the survey which shows how money people, even now, as the economy very clearly recovers from the pandemic and recession, we have too many people facing nutritional shortfalls, and we have a really effective program, snap, formerly called food stamps, which meets those needs. we extended that program in the rescue program and some of the prior fiscal packages, and we will continue to ensure that snap meets people's nutritional needs. jonathan: jared, we always appreciate your time. tom: nailed that. jonathan: an important conversation taking place. about 25 minutes away from a cpi print in the united states of america. tom: what was really important, we make jokes about it, but he didn't use the word transitory about food inflation. jonathan: he didn't, but he

eventually said the same thing. i did ask a delicate one about the control of the narrative. i think that is imported for them to try to control the narrative, and we know why. there's a big effort taking place down in washington, d.c. to do even more on the physical side, and if they lose control of the narrative around higher prices, persistently higher inflation, it gets harder for them to do the things they want to do. tom: we welcome all of you worldwide on radio, on television. we say good morning to you. we will get to david b juncker -- david bianco any moment. then we move on to retail sales, sandwiched by retail earnings from jp morgan. tell us what you learn from inflation in about 20 minutes. lisa: i think there's confusions about what will be temporary based effects and what is longer-term. we will see the base effects come back, that last year was

really bad, this year is much more normal. the key question is not mind is underpinning that. how much is goods? how much is services? we have seen food inflation, oil price inflation. we haven't necessarily seen services inflation. when do we see both start to come up together? tom: jon, you are celebrating in the united kingdom the end of a lockdown. massive success on vaccination in the u.k., and there is inflation with that as well, isn't there? jonathan: it is a mild move of the restrictions. you can go outside at the pub and have a beer in the freezing cold. we are reopening the economy a year after shutting down the economy, and i think the headline here is we are talking about inflation of 2.5% in america. the federal reserve has been asking for that for years, and overshoot. we have been talking about asymmetrical target for a long

time -- about a symmetrical car get -- a symmetrical target for a long time. why is this so different? why do we judge the federal reserve by a different bar? 2.5%, really? tom: again, what core dynamics do is critical. david bianco joins us now of dws. the vix only at 17.12. you have been listening to all of this. we come down to a single focus here in 21 minutes of cpi inflation. i know you are going to say we are overdoing the analysis, but nevertheless, inflation matters, doesn't it? david: it certainly matters because inflation influences just rates, and the number one question among every investor i know, where are interest rates going? what are normal interest rates?

what does that mean for the appropriate valuation of any income producing assets, especially equities? so we are focused on inflation. i have enjoyed the conversation very much. i think it is very insightful. today is important, but we are not considering it to be the be-all, and doll -- the be-all, end-all on inflation. this is cyclical inflation. this is recovering inflation. think the question really is what is secular inflation going to look like over the course of this cycle and this expansion. in our view, that really depends on fiscal and monetary policy, and particularly how those two interact. i heard jonathan talk about controlling the narrative. there's a really important element of not just expectations, but trust here. we know that this fiscal policy is tremendous and expansive, and

being largely paid for through the fed's balance sheet expansion. so the key issue of trust, will the fed and does the fed have the ability to tamp down inflation when it does get to its target, even if it looks like it is exceeding that 2.5% target that the fed welcomes for some period of time? that is the key. will the fed fight inflation, contain inflation as it rises as the cycle continues? lisa: let's stick with the inflationary expectations, and what would make you think that there is something beyond transitory. that there is a different nature to an era of a financial experiment of helicopter money at the same time of a low-grade policy. -- a low rate policy. david: to me it is a matter of fiscal and monetary discipline, and we trust them to do the right things over time. these fiscal policies, they are tremendous. we need you think about if they

are right sized -- we need to think about if they are right sized and right targeted. if you are moving from investment spending being led by corporate america by raising taxes on corporate america, and having those investment decisions made by governments, that raises some question marks about how high a return we will get on investment spending. so i am watching to see how well targeted the fiscal programs are , and then i am watching to see how willing the fed is to continue to make these purchases of $120 billion every month. we expect it to go on into early next year, but at some point that has to stop. this monetization can be done now because inflation is below target, but this has limits, and we have to make sure that monetary policy setters, as well as fiscal policy setters, realize this can't last forever.

eventually we are going to need to stop the monetization, raise taxes, or be more disciplined in the spending. jonathan: do you think that is intended, or just an outcome of what they are doing? david: right. you have to be careful of the words here. i think many of the policymakers would bicker with the term monetization. the fed has large-scale asset purchases. they are expanding their balance sheet. so far, we see the vast majority of that asset side of the fed balance sheet expansion being funded by reserves by the banks, and still in elevated treasury accounts held by the treasury department at the federal reserve. but it's inflation picks up and the demand for loans picks up simply because people want to borrow cheap money because they believe assets are going up, we could see reserves that the banks come down and see inflation pressures pickup.

i am talking about inflation from a monetary phenomenon which is what i think is the driver of inflation over the long-term, and this is a very uncertain math. we don't know how much cash can be put into circulation before it creates major inflationary pressures. we do know that more cash in circulation, people will be moving towards that inflation target in a sustained way. at first that is welcome, but at some point the genie needs to be put back in the bottle. jonathan: thank you for joining us, jim b -- joining us, david bianco of dws. equity futures shaping up as follows on the s&p 500, down by around 0.2%. a bounce off the low after hearing from the fda and cdc

about one hour and 15 minutes ago that they are recommending a pause of the j&j one-shot vaccine for covid-19 in america. in the bond market, yields are higher by a couple of basis points, 1.6819%. euro-dollar just south of $1.19 at $1.1897. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." ♪ ♪

♪ >> the change in policy is well motivated.

the risk is they are not even going to start to tighten monetary policy until inflation is above 2% and they expect inflation to move higher. that does create some risks for the economy. jonathan: we will talk about those risks in a moment. that was william dudley, former federal reserve bank of new york president. good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. we are 12 minutes away from inflation data in the united states of america. here is the set up for you stateside going into the opening bell in about one hour and 12 minutes. equity futures down nine on the s&p, down about 0.2%. yields on the 10 year, 1.67 65%. the headline from the fda and cdc recommending a pause in the j&j vaccine does not make it in this market. euro-dollar bricking $1.19 this morning, a mild move lower by 0.1%. tom: we get lucky, as we did

over the last number of days, to have the right guest at the right time. i don't know how our team does it, but they have been killing on this. tina fordham joins us with avonhurst, head of political strategy. three cups of coffee ago, i thought we would talk russia, china, taiwan. no, because there has been an extremely detailed study at avonhurst on our vaccination, on our pandemic, and the realities of our resilience and success forward. tina fordham joins us this morning. here we have the j&j news. you literally write about it weeks ahead of time. how does that resilience, how does our ability to relapse affected by shocks like this news? tina: thanks, tom.

we have been through a version of that in europe with astrazeneca. we could maybe take some lessons from the astrazeneca controversy and see and which countries was the vaccine rollout and the take-up affected by the decision around the blood clots. johnson & johnson was being heavily relied upon to accelerate the great success of the u.s. vaccine rollout, but what we look at in our backs populate -- in our vax populi framework is people's willingness to take it. that is a function of a number of factors, and trust in the government is one. willingness to follow the rules, what we call social cohesion, is another. believe in conspiracy theories is another. the u.s. has high susceptibility on those factors. tom: i want to go to that. folks, i want to make clear, this is a phenomenal report by

avonhurst. contact avonhurst to get it. what you really talk about is societal confidence in elites. technocracy, that is what america is known for. how are we doing on the development of believing in our technocracy? tina: well, it depends on how you look at the data. i look at how people trust each other. americans don't trust each other. we have been talking about political polarization on this show together for years. this is how it plays out. we have politicized take-up of the vaccine itself. highly regionalized. people interpreting whether it is mask wearing or other hygiene aspects of the vaccine as politicized. the u.s. is the worst case of this. we are also unfortunately afflicted with a high susceptibility to believe in

conspiracy theories. that means we can be manipulated by misinformation and disinformation. so a lot of people will look at this announcement from the cdc and fda and say, that's it, i'm not taking it. lisa: well, they still have several other options that have not been shown to have this side effect in the united states. i wonder what the effect of this type of disclosure has in the dissemination of the j&j or astrazeneca vaccines to the emerging world. tina: there's a lot of interesting data on that. in fact, vaccine willingness is much higher in emerging countries, partly because they have been part of campaigns by the who and elsewhere for the past several decades, so we don't have a problem in africa and in other emerging parts of the world like we do in france

and the u.s., that have very high rates of vaccine skepticism. lisa: transparency is key for people to have confidence that they are getting all of the information necessary. what you think that the cdc should have done, or european leaders should have done with the astrazeneca vaccine, in weighing the disclosure of risks with the ability to get vaccines in arms? tina: it is heavily a function of fear and other factors. we know that we are willing to get in our cars and drive in a way that we are much more afraid of traveling to countries where there might be terrorism risks. as people, we are not really that great at risk assessment. i just looked while we were about to go on at what the cdc put out. it said in a statement that the treatment required for the type of blood clot that i gather in six cases has been identified, they want to pause the rollout

so that medical professionals were ready to do that. so they were very careful in their language. but to lisa's point, people might not differentiate and say i want this vaccine or that one. they might say that this happened too fast, and i am concerned about it. we are not as rational as we think, and the fear factor is frankly high with something like a vaccine. jonathan: tina, we always appreciate the perspective. tina fordham, avonhurst head of political strategy. they are concerned about six cases of clotting connected, they think, to the vaccine from j&j. they are literally just going over the data to try to work out if there is a connection at this point, and that is basically what we know. 6.8 million doses of the j&j vaccine administered in the united states, and six reported cases of rare and severe types of blood clots following the vaccine from j&j leading them to have an investigation.

tom: i am going to cut everybody a lot of slack. as i mentioned earlier, and i can't convey this enough, america is different. this is embedded in our academics of medicine and pharmacology. it goes back to after world war ii, we decided to do things differently, and that is still true today. jonathan: equities a little lower off the back of that headline. still down by about 0.2%. cpi coming'out in about five minutes time. 2.54% is your median estimate from the economists we survey at bloomberg, and your price action going into that print looks a little something like this on the s&p 500. 240 100 handle, 411 -- a 4100 handle, 4112 right now. the euro a little bit weaker, dollar a little bit stronger. euro-dollar down a little more

than 0.1%. crude, $60.23, up by 0.9%. it feels like payrolls friday, except it is an inflation report in america. get used to it. the next couple of months are going to be like this. live on bloomberg tv and radio, this is "bloomberg surveillance ." ♪

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jonathan: it is the most anticipated cpi print in a long time. from new york city, for audience worldwide, good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. waiting for economic data. here it is. michael: we do have some inflation, it comes in a little hotter than economists anticipated. the month of her month interest on the cpi is .6. the forecast was .5%. the core comes in .3%. the forecast was .2%. cpi headline number at 2.6%. core at 1.6%. the headline number is almost a

full percent higher than in february. this is explained that in march last year prices just inflated. that is why we are seeing the -- jim vogel says maybe we are trying too hard to find a problem. that the markets already expect. tom: i will cut you off and go right where i was with jared bernstein. the problem is i've had three emails in the last 48 hours about a bag of groceries. what inflation are you reporting on that they are looking at in washington that is separate and distinct from what a bag of groceries is costing everybody right now? michael: we are looking at the headline numbers and that is what the markets are looking at. the goal will be to take this apart and find out where the inflation is. interestingly enough, the inflation numbers for food only

went up .1% this last month. on a year-over-year basis, they basically are changed at 3.5%. we are not at 4% yet. food at home, the grocery store. tom: what you think might was last at whole foods? michael: there is your problem. lisa: we saw food inflation throughout the pandemic. it is not like that was the base effect we are looking for right now. yields just a touch higher and futures a touch lower. mike, when you dissect the elements, is there a surprise and what some of the drivers were behind this bigger than expected headline number? michael: i am not seeing any major surprises. we knew a lot of the things that were going to happen. gasoline prices were up 9% during the month. that puts them up on a year-over-year basis 22.5%. you knew that.

at this point that is not going to be a surprised everybody. we expect gasoline prices will go back down at some point. energy up significantly because of the price of oil. looking at apparel prices, they were forecast to go up and they come down .3%. they are down 2.5%. if you're buying a new dress to go to the grocery store or buy some food, you are better off than you were on a relative basis. new vehicles flat. used cars and trucks, up .5% on a year-over-year basis, 9.4%. that is an inflationary number. medical commodities only up white 1% -- only up .1%. services up .4% on the month. services less energy, that leaves them up 1.6% on the year. we are seeing inflation but not

a significant amount of it. if we were not talking about what happened last year, you would look at the cpi and say we do -- prices went up and that is why we are seeing this increase. here is another surprise. airfares were up .4%. we are expecting a big jump in airfares because people are going back on vacation. year-over-year basis are still down 15%. we are not seeing a major across-the-board rise in prices yet. that is the thing people will be paying attention to. housing, 1.8%. we are seeing more inflation, but not the kind of thing that will scare the fed. jonathan: just for a second revealing how you do your grocery shopping. i tend to do it in a hoodie and sweatpants. you do it and address, apparently. we are coming off the back of shutting the global economy down

in the base effects are taking in and we are talking about 2.6 percent inflation. doesn't that go some way to explaining why there is not much inflation. if you can have a base effect -- at least as far as the cpi basket is concerned. michael: that is exactly right. we are not seeing pricing power. we are seeing nascent stirrings. we are seeing some prices go up, but most prices are not going up at a rapid clip, even with the base effects. the base effects will be stronger next month. it'll be interesting to see what we get. we are not seeing an across-the-board increase in a lot of different products, which is what the fed would be looking for to see what is going on. another note this morning was saying cpi now has to ratify where the market is instead of the market reacting to the cpi. at this point, does not seem to

be doing that. michael: thank you so much. much more to come, including retail sales. i think that is important concept the market gets in front of the data in the data has to catch up. jonathan: i think you got a taste of what would happen if we did get sustainably higher inflation. the knee-jerk reaction was equities lower and bond yields higher but now we are back to where we were before the print. in your equity market, equities higher, off .1% on the s&p 500. higher off the back of the data. euro getting a little bit stronger on the back of this. euro-dollar 1.1905, almost flat on the data. tom: stay with bloomberg through the day. mr. mcgee will slice and dice the data. -- michael mckee will slice and dice the data. one of those so good at it is simona mocuta with a smart note linking fiscal and monetary into

our inflation worry. which is more important for this fear of runaway inflation? the fiscal story or the monetary story? simona: i think none of them are particularly impactful in the near term. everything we are seeing today has to do with what we are talking about just now, reopening, base effect, all of that. i think where the policy framework shifts in the way we set policy is more about inflation over the medium-term. it is hard to chart which is more important than the other because there are many -- i think we come back to monetary. monetary policy almost has control of guiding to what extent fiscal spending or fiscal expansion is allowed to help the economy run fast before monetary

puts the break to it. at the moment you have a combination where on both sides the intent is to really allow for more prolonged episodes of the economy running hot on all sides of policy. lisa: let's talk from macro to the grocery store. there is a question of what prices we are looking at as the red herring to signal that perhaps there is a longer-lasting inflationary push? are there particular goods, particular services you view as harbingers of greater inflation to come? simona: i look at prices, what i consider things the average person would pay attention to your there are two in particular, energy and food prices, that are more visible to the average person. why are they important? they are important because they

speak to how you form inflation expectations. we as economists understand the difference between core inflation and headline inflation. you realize you do not experience core inflation. you experience your life as a whole and inflation as a whole. for policymaking purposes -- for the average person, it is headline. we should not be [indiscernible] as an element in inflation shaping expectations, but we are looking not just at the peak, you are looking at the sustainability of these trends. we were at 2.5% inflation just a couple of years ago. we were close to 3%, 4% in 2011. it did not last. the question we all are watching

for, the 2021 inflation is important. for markets it is 2022 inflation that is more important and we could talk about the sustainability. jonathan: something the vice-chairman of the federal reserve talked about recently as well. great to catch up. simona mocuta, the state street economist. just tuning in, 10 minutes ago inflation data in america a little bit hotter than expected, just like ppi in the previous week. 2.6%. the median estimate was 2.5%. you strip out energy and food, we call it core, 1.6%. a little hotter than estimated. the median estimate 1.5%. price action on the back of that a little mild. almost unchanged on the s&p 500. yields around 1.70 as they have been for the last couple weeks. tom: we have a trifecta of events. we had cpi that just came out.

i want to call it orderly. michael mckee will say i am wrong when he slices through it. we have the retail sales which is important, and in between we got what really matters, we will immediately recalibrate earnings for this quarter forward. i thought david bianchi was good on that about trying to gauge the earnings estimate. that is when the bloomberg screen will change. jonathan: i agree with you. jp morgan kicking things off tomorrow morning. in the next hour i am pleased to say i will be catching up with pimco to get their reaction to the inflation story. we'll catch up with the managing director and global economic advisor joachim fels. looking forward to that conversation along with megan greene of the harvard kennedy school. this is it. it starts this week and will continue for a solid eight months through to year end. tom: you wonder what the new normal will be for joachim fels. jonathan: this discussion is the

new normal. it'll be with us for a long time , through to 2022 perhaps. alongside lisa abramowicz and tom keene, i am jonathan ferro. equities ok. inflation hotter than expected. from new york, this is bloomberg surveillance. ritika: with first word news, i am ritika gupta. president biden says he has congressional support for government funding to address the semiconductor shortage. that shortage has forced automakers to shut down production lines. the president spoke at a white house meeting with more than a dozen ceos. he said there is bipartisan support for his $50 billion proposal for chip manufacturing and research. all output levels in the u.s. are nearing levels not seen since the start of the pandemic. production in the permian basin, the u.s. most prolific shale pack is set to reach a one-year year high next month. high prices are making drillers

more confidence. the benchmark gain in the last months. the u.k. has hit its mid april target to offer a first coronavirus vaccine to all over 50. there is a significant boost to boris johnson plan to unlock more of the economy. people in their late 40's are expected to be invited to get vaccines in the coming days. federal health agencies are calling for a halt in the use of the johnson & johnson coronavirus vaccine. six people in the u.s. who received a single dose vaccine developed a rare disorder involving blood clots. all women between age 18 and 48. more than six point 8 million doses of the johnson & johnson vaccine have been given in the u.s.. bitcoin rose to an all-time high today. the world's largest cryptocurrency crash through the $62,000 threshold, breaking the mark set last month. a growing list of companies embrace bitcoin. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700

journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> before we can make the kinds of determinations you are asking about, we have to understand how

disruptive this is. we do not know yet. it is the case -- i think the rescue plan -- we know the rescue plan played a key role in producing and distributing vaccines and helping us accelerate the curve of getting shots in arms. tom: dr. bernstein, not a medical doctor, and economist assisting president biden's council of economic advisors. right now a joy. peter hotez joins us, dean of national school of tropical measured -- tropical medicine. he has been such a support unclear thinking through this pandemic. peter, somewhere buried in your distinguished cv is hematology. it is ignored by so many in virology, in bacteriology. it is the effect of all of this

on our blood. give us a synopsis of the hematology of blood clots to these vaccines. dr. hotez: we do not know the full story yet, but there is an emerging story coming out in papers like the new england journal of medicine and others and it has to do with the fact that the two major adenovirus-based vaccines, that is astrazeneca and johnson & johnson, not the mrna vaccines, not the other technologies, the two major adenovirus vaccines seem to be inducing an immune response in some mechanism we do not fully understand that is activating an antibody response to platelets associated with blood clotting. this is causing platelet activation at these events happening in the veins draining the brain and is causing cerebral thrombosis. michael: to be clear -- tom: to be clear, this is the idea of

the vaccine going over into a cardi -- into a cardiac event. the numbers, six out of 6.8 million, does that give you pause or is this just a risk at hand? dr. hotez: those are the numbers coming out of the u.s. with the johnson & johnson vaccine. with the astrazeneca vaccine is about one and 100,000, maybe one in 200,000. they are rare events. what countries are going to do about this will depend on the availability of other vaccines. the u.s., we have a pretty big folio. we have two mrna vaccines from pfizer and moderna. we have the novavax vaccine coming along. they may make a different decision than a country entirely dependent on adenovirus vaccines. it will be risk versus benefit. the other problem is this not happening in a vacuum. it is happening in the background of a very aggressive anti-vaccine lobby that is

piling on. that could easily derail a lot of efforts. i am particularly concerned about african and latin american country which backed themselves into a corner in the sense they became totally dependent on these adenovirus vectors vaccines in some cases. this is also true of the russian vaccine. we do not have any information about that. the impact, especially on the world slow and middle income countries could be devastating and i'm upset about what is going on. lisa: this is where i wanted to go. the communication of some of the details as we learn about potential side effects you think the fda, the cdc, the european health officials should have waited before disclosing this information already think it is important to shore up the feelings of full transparency? dr. hotez: you could argue either way. i think they made the right call because one of the things that is important is to reassure the public, both in europe and the

united states and globally, that the regulatory bodies have the vigilance and monitoring at hand. in some ways, the american people, and europeans should be reassured that our regulatory systems, our global governance is intact and can pick up events that would not necessarily show up in the phase three trials. it is a glass half-full /half-empty. i think they made the right call and now as a matter of how you navigate the next few weeks because we do not have a lot of alternatives, especially for many countries. lisa: going back to your point about the developing world that potentially relies on these vaccines, how much do you think these types of communications, these news flashes and deterring that effort -- are deterring the effort to vaccinate the developing world? dr. hotez: it is a big deal. i have been going up against the anti-vaccine lobby for years and years because i have a daughter with autism and i wrote a book

that called vaccines do not cause autism which made me public enemy number one. i was saying to not think this is going to state wall off to north america and europe, this will go global. we are starting to see the same anti-vaccine messages coming out of the u.s.. now we are finding in africa and latin america. the other reason we are seeing this is the putin government -- this has been reported by u.s. and british intelligence -- has been piling on with this program of weaponized health communications trying to destabilize democracies with anti-vaccine and antiscience messages and targeting scientists. this is another big issue. tom: give us an update on india. the numbers there are not good, maybe not as bad as brazil, but can you imagine the sputnik vaccine as well. would you take the sputnik vaccine? dr. hotez: not if i had other alternatives.

the reason is because that vaccine has not gone through estrogen regulatory authority as defined by -- through a stringent regulatory authority. in india we are accelerating our vaccine. they are preparing 1.2 billion doses. this is an older school of technology, a protein vaccine that so far is looking good. hopefully that might fill some of the gaps in africa and latin america. tom: on short notice, peter hotez after this news on johnson & johnson. dean of the national school of tropical medicine at baylor college. a little bit of mixed green and red on the screen. i look at the markets, lisa, they have been pretty immune to all of this, including the inflation data. lisa: the idea is this particular news item does not have that big of an impact on u.s. markets. the bigger question stemming from dr. hotels -- dr. hotez is

the dissemination of vaccines outside of the developed world. how do you get confidence to take the vaccine once you have a critical mass of people who are willing? tom: for berlin, the headline german government seeks more powers to set pandemic rules. it harkens to the idea of the aloneness of select countries like new zealand, like the u.s., like britain. other than that it is a challenge. lisa: retail sales are going to be front and center for the nine dates following the inflation data -- for the united states following the inflation data we just got the right now the question goes into the willingness to spend. americans have done spending very well for very long. we have a lot of cash to spend. have they started to spend it, where are they spending it? this is one of the distinguishing features of some of the growth forecast and the united dates. tom: at 10:00 this morning we

believe we will see a press conference of some form from the food and drug administration. read in green on the screen. 17.04. on bloomberg radio and television, good morning. ♪

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jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, good morning morning, good morning. the countdown to the opening bell starts right now. equity futures turning a little bit positive. that's get straight to it. we begin with the big issue. it is the debate of the moment. >> transitory. >> transitory. >> transitory rise in inflation. >> everyone says transitory. what is transitory? >> that is the hardest thing to calibrate. >> two months, transitory? two quarters, less so. two years? >> this is a crisis we have never seen before. the supply chain has been disrupted. >> a mandated shutdown of the economy. >> everyone is freaked out about short-term data. >> how strong is the fed's commitment to let things run hot? >> we are waiting for good to know and -- we are waiting for gadot and