>> good morning morning with me, manus cranny. the stories to set your agenda on "daybreak: europe." a mixed picture for stocks as investors saw off rising inflation and the vaccination campaign. jay powell joins david rubenstein today. don't miss it. jp morgan is expected to report

the strongest earnings growth in over 10 years as it kicks off q1 results for the banks. goldman sachs and wells fargo follow shortly. tencent is set to hold off on a dollar bond offering amid escalating concern over the health of distress debt manager china her room. good morning, 6:00 a.m. in london. just gone 9:00 a.m. in the dfc. there is a very clear delineation in markets. johnson & johnson has been benched for usage. for percent of what the u.s. needs for its vaccine campaign. but the bond market bree zed through the spike in cpi. the core cpi the highest in over a decade. this is a market that realizes the very prissy into risk that is vaccine rollout in stores. annmarie: 100%.

what is so interesting is the bank of america server we were looking at, only 15% of respondents said the biggest tail risk is covid-19. that clearly is not where the market took its eyes. you mentioned 4% to the u.s. the u.s. doesn't need j&j, but the rest of the world is in trouble. we talked about it like a joke, but it is crucial for the european inoculation campaign. of course, that relates to whether or not we will be back on flights and traveling anywhere to southern europe this summer. manus: absolutely. a number of our guests said you will hit 60% vaccination rate around europe by the start of july. perhaps that is the underpriced risk we need to rerate. annmarie: but without j&j, air affinity, a research firm, it will take until december to

inoculate three quarters of the eu population without the j&j vaccine. this is just on pause. the fda says it will likely be days. six individuals, 6.8 million doses, but it is a risk, isn't it? manus: it is. when you look at the bond markets and yields, and i put it to you in these terms, there was a stoicism to the bond market, it got through. the core cpi is the third highest since 2007. going into steepeners, that will reset the agenda. the white house is core. annmarie: the white house, the economic policy advisor, we asked him for his take on the potential disruption from the paws of the j&j vaccine. take a listen. >> i think before we can make the kinds of timing determinations you are asking about, we have to understand how disruptive it is.

we just don't know yet. manus: anthony fauci was asked if he thought the decision that was made rashly. >> we want to get this worked out as quickly as we possibly can. that is why you see the word pause. we are going to hold off for a bit and very well may go back to that with conditions or not. but we want to leave it up to the fda and cdc to investigate this carefully. i don't think it was pulling the trigger too quickly. annmarie: a crucial conversation coming up today at 5:00 p.m. u.k. time on bloomberg television. jerome powell speaks at the economic club of washington with david rubenstein. we will not miss any of that. we will play it for you tomorrow morning. let's take a look at where we trade this morning. asian equities seeing a resurgence. up .5%. we did have some under pressure the last few days. s&p 500 futures flat, but we are

in the green. the dollar weakness across the board, especially under the yen, raking below 109. 10 year yields are now one point 61%. smooth sailing in inflation data, the 30 year auction, is reflation trade losing steam? let's take a look at what janet mui thinks, investment director. a great opinion piece overnight from authors about this. the bond market, inflation data, the 1.7% y 1.6 -- to 1.6% in one trading day. is the reflation trade on pause, or dying at the moment? >> good morning. thanks for the question. i think the reflation is dying. we are at the very start of the economic cycle. we are still going to see multiple years of extension.

the momentum is currently very high. we will see very high momentum in growth, inflation, and corporate earnings. we might see that moderated into next year. but the level of growth will be higher, above average. it will still be an economic cycle. i doubt the reflation trade is over yet. maybe it is kind of pausing at the moment. manus: great to have you with us this morning. we have both been looking -- there are a couple of interesting positioning prospects put out, in terms of the risk. the market now sees taper tantrum and inflation, and taxes as being a bigger issue than covid. would you agree that covid has slid down the rankings? there is something that jars with this survey for me. what about you? >> i do think covid is now more

at the back of the concerns for investors. we know there is an endgame to the covid-19 pandemic. we have seen a number of risks coming out, from the astrazeneca vaccine, the johnson & johnson vaccine. but the market doesn't seem to be overly concerned. there are other alternatives. some degree of inoculation progress might be impacted for specific countries who rely on the vaccines. we know there are alternatives. we can ramp up production. other vaccines might be approved, as well. i think it is not the parity of concern for investors, but it is rather the higher bond yields and the higher taxes that are

the concern. annmarie: it is a good point. it doesn't matter so much, but new data point, 75 percent of americans vaccinated potentially signaling that is a time when we can start talking about tapering the bond purchases. do you think we can see that as soon as this summer, august or september? >> it depends on individual countries. i have been keeping up with bloomberg's vaccination tracker. it shows the approximate months eads country can get to herd immunity. the u.k. and u.s. are looking really good. even before the johnson & johnson vaccine problem emerged, europe is going to take longer. by the end of the year to get to that level.

it does suggest it depends on specific countries. but the u.s. and u.k. should have better progress compared to europe. some of the holidays might be a bit difficult for europeans this summer. manus: the 120 pounds return on one of the low-cost carriers. janet mui stays with us. let's get the first word news. >> forces -- >> sources say president biden is set to withdraw all u.s. troops by september 11. it marks the 20th anniversary of the terrorist attacks that led to the u.s. invasion and toppling of the taliban leadership. some forces will start leaving before the end of this month. the u.k. left a top civil servant advise greenfield capital while he was still

working for them. cronyism surrounding the insolvent lender, including by the former prime minister. he has been cleared of breaking the rules, but the government has announced an inquiry into how he won contracts. brazil's central bank is keeping an eye on a recent spike in commodity prices and if it will continue to infect core inflation, they delivered the not price rate hike last month and is promising another in may. it is trying to put a lid on inflation without stifling the recovery. >> we think it is very important to have fiscal discipline. we don't think we are in any kind of physical bumping is, but we think because we had a very large -- during the pandemic, and effort that we had in our ears. it needed extraordinary measures. >> global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.

this is bloomberg. annmarie: we will pick it up from here. vaccine setback. johnson and johnson pauses the rollout of its covid-19 vaccine in europe. and the u.s. the details coming up next. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the fda is the gold standard for ensuring the safety and effectiveness of the vaccine. i think today is clear evidence they are taking every step necessary to ensure the american people have clear and transparent information. >> we expect it to be a matter of day for this cause. >> we want to get this worked out as quickly as we can.

that is what you see the word pause. he want to hold off a bit. we might go back to that, maybe with conditions, maybe not. >> the real condition that is notable is not just the thrombosis for the -- those two things can occur. it is their occurrence together that makes a pattern, and that pattern is very similar to what was seen in europe with another vaccine. annmarie: u.s. health and political officials on the distribution of the johnson and johnson vaccine as it was paused across much of the u.s. and europe mother review comes as the development of where blood clots in several women marking another setback for the global inoculation campaign is being studied. six women suffered a blank -- brain clot similar to the one by the astrazeneca vaccine.

let's just start with what this means for europe's vaccination program. how big of a blow is this? >> it is a blowback. we have seen the year -- european vaccination campaign, johnson & johnson had only started this week. this is the perfect vaccine for europe, it is quick and easy, and they have 55 million doses they are expecting. we don't know for how long. yesterday, the commission was clear, they don't want to rush anything. security is paramount. but the problem now is we are counting on a lot of pfizer, which is already making up for the shortfall of astrazeneca. you will see a lot of pressure building on pfizer to make up for two vaccines that might be

coming in late. manus: so the european union is looking to seal its vaccine certificate to allow for travel. this is diametrically different to what we are seeing in the u.s. do you think this johnson and johnson setback might interfere with that? >> the timing of this is very funny, because they weren't expecting the vaccine to be defended. today, the big announcement was they are putting the final touches on the vaccination certificate that would allow europeans to travel during the summer. so you can show you have been tested, you have coronavirus, and are potentially immune. whether or not you have been vaccinated. it is very much up in the air. the summer season is still a big question mark. what we see is there are a lot of details pending. they want a normal holiday, but

it looks like normality is still very early. manus: thank you very much. i forgot to say good morning. maria tadeo in brussels. janet yui is our guest host. you have upgraded your view on europe. is the wrinkle of johnson and johnson on the bench for the moment -- you said five days, do think it will come back? annmarie: it is a matter of days. >> we have trended more positive on equities. we think this kind of hiccup will eventually be resolved. i think because expectations on the vaccine rollout has been low, eventually europe will close out the vaccination gap

between the u.s. and u.k.. so we think we eventually rebound, and people don't have strong or optimistic growth expectations on europe versus the u.k. or the u.s. so we think there is a lot of catching up for the u.k.. annmarie: and we hope they catch up. we have been talking about the bank of america note. a funny title. we all know manus loves mikabut it is serious in the sense, will europe survive the travel season? are you worried about if they don't end in the inoculation drags about post pandemic bankruptcies across the region? >> i think that would be -- >> i don't think that will be a huge concern at the moment. there are a lot of elements, the programs, the people out of

work, that receive support from the government, they're likely to be given support as stimulus measures go off. credit should be available if needed. i don't see a problem. we know eventually, things will get better. so there is more breathing space. there will be more leeway for them to sustain the business. manus: i am looking at the news flow over the last 24 hours, lou is vuitton, amazing numbers in parts of their business. a lot has to do with china. the full year outlook raised. the world is changing, but looking at the china story, how important is it that there is no stepping back from the gap in china to deliver the 8% growth

this year? >> first of all, i think the government officials are getting about 6%. the expectation is 8%. so the chinese government, it is -- to see the initial forecast. we have yet to see, but the second quarter will be strong year on year. i think the challenge will definitely be sustaining. a lot of that strong growth has already happened. coming out of the pandemic. there are more signs the government will try and tighten the liquid commission. so as a result, we are more cautious on china. we are really seeing evidence of the credit tightening happening. annmarie: thank you so much for joining us, janet mui.

we will continue the discussion on china. a record tumble in the dollar bonds of china are wrong asset management, stoking fears of market contagion. the latest from the selloff, the world's second-largest credit market. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> good morning. i'm annmarie hordern in london with manus cranny in dubai. the latest on the selloff. rolling the world's second-largest credit market, mounting concerns about the asset management, fueling a record tumble in the dollar bonds. it is a distressed debt manager controlled by the finance ministry. for all of the details, our china credit reporter joins us.

why are investors panicking right now? >> we see this extraordinary story of mounting stress. one of china's more important central state owned companies. huarong kind of stoked investor concern after the release of its financials march 31. it led to questions about the liability and visibility of the group. there have been reports of a potential restructuring, yet no signs the government might step in to prevent investors taking a cut. that sparked a lot of worry about the extent and scope of support from the state. this is an a rated investment grade borrower. typically held by many institution or international investors. now it is trading at junk levels. $.60, $.65 on the dollar.

manus: i remember when they use to rate certain other products as aaa, that came to an untimely end. $42 billion worth of onshore and offshore debt in this company. it comes down to a simple issue, the bonds rated aaa by some of the rating agencies as to where there is contagion risk. >> absolutely. we are already seeing signs of contagion in the offshore credit markets. there was a sharp selloff in china investment grade and high-yield dollar bonds as investors moved to payer risks. we are already seeing a share investment bonds moving out wider. in the primary will -- market, tencent is holding off a potential for billion-dollar bond deal meant to be as early

as today, and spreading the bonds to be widest at about three months as it spills over and weighs on other investment rate bonds. annmarie: what is next? how much pain is the chinese government willing to take? >> that is the crucial question, whether we see any signs of government support, or whether it is a sign of a pullback. that would be quite a seismic shift. if we were to see any sign of a pullback of support by the government for essential so we, that would provoke a kind of repricing of risk across china's bond market. potentially some of asia's, as well. they are based on a certain level of support for state firms. so if we see that change, there would have to be a fundamental

reassessment of how chinese bonds and borrowers are look that by investors and rating agencies. manus: absolutely. that is the risk. our china credit reporter with the very latest. i found the article i was looking for. six days before lehman's collapse, the ratings agency obtained the investment grade rating. i think it was in a. annmarie: fascinating. it is a fact. but obviously, it happened once before. we have seen it happen other times. many other times following that. history does tend to repeat itself, especially in the financial world. manus: absolutely. we have a very short memories. a quick look through the markets. records were made on tech stocks. bank of america all over that. we will talk more about that. asia is better, up a half of 1%. annmarie: and the dollar-yen

marching this morning. we are seeing some dollar weakness. brazil's central bank raising interest rates by the most in a decade last month. our exclusive interview. ♪

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results for the backs. goldman sachs and wells fargo follow. and ton cent is said to hold off on a dollar bond offering over concerns over the distressed debt manager, huarong. manus, good morning, 66:30 in london. we are slugging off the inflation -- shrugging off the inflation, a little hotter, although it didn't send off worry snippings. what everybody was focused off was j and j suspending the shot in europe. will it be a set back in the global inoculation campaign? manus: yes. i have taken one side of the trade and you have taken the other. my fact of the day, you know what i am like with a fact. i am dangerous. calvin johnson is 4% -- johnson & johnson is 4% of what the united states needs of the 190 million shots.

your fact of the day is annmarie: it is a good point, the unless, but europe is important for j and j. they say if they don't get this one-shot inoculation which can read a lot of rural communities, they are looking at december until three quarters of the population can be vaccinated. that is a big deal. manus: i would say that the bond market breezed through the c.p.i. numbers. the core numbers highest since 2007. but break-even is already trading up at around 2.6% on the two-year paper. the bigger and more debatable hugh is this. this is how the survey from bank of america looks at it. this is the market moving on more quickly than you and you are on a daily basis. this is a market that is undersigning the tolerance for

higher bond yeelts, and it moved past covid. whether they are right or not, that is another issue. annmarie: the question is, is the market being way too cavalier given what we saw yesterday regarding johnson & johnson. we ask the white house economic apologize usor for his take on this potential disruption on the pause in the vaccines. >> i think before we can make the kinds of timing determinations that you are asking about, we have to understand how disruptive this is. we just don't know yet. manus: meanwhile, anthony fauci was asked if he thought the decision was made rationally. >> we want to get this worked ut as quickly as we possibly can. that is why you see the word pause. in other words, you want to hold off for a bit, and very well maying back to that, maybe with some conditions, maybe not. but we want to leave it up to the c.d.c. and the f.d.a. to

investigate this carely. not pulling the trigger too quickly. annmarie: a crucial conversation at 5:00 p.m. u.k. time, fed chair jay powell speaking with our very own david reubenstein. you don't want to miss that conversation. manus: absolutely. i love the piece of research whether we are in a pond cycle. i know i am dangerous with a fact, dangerous with a piece of research. i am just a danger to the show. let's check tout the markets. that is why we like it. let's have a look at asia pacific. stocks are flying higher. records in the united states. the nasdaq, i was looking at the long positions in the market, long-term, 32%, but that is dying from 80% in september. dollar/yen you are obsessed with that. it is 1.09. it is really a bottom as it

gets for bank of america. wur uber bullish on the markets. a v-shaped recovery is 50% of the survey. sam is standing by. he debates more cerebral issues. owes our senior pharmacuticals analyst. here we go. fauci says they didn't pull the trigger too early on pausing the johnson & johnson shot. did they? >> good morning, manus. if only i was in the same camp as the good dr. fauci. i absolutely think they have done absolutely the right thing . imagine the other version of this reality working out. some newspaper, in amazing journalist gets hold of the information when the cases have risen to seven, eight, nine and

10, and think about that consequence. you cannot have this. this is the job of the c.d.c. and the f.d.a. this is the job of the mhra, the job of the e.m.a. they have to do this. there is no question about this. annmarie: completely. it shows there is transparency, especially when you have things like a lot of vaccine hesitancy in the united states. sam, you mentioned in your research that it doesn't exactly matter for the u.s. vaccine program, but who is really going to be in trouble if this johnson & johnson does not get the green light quickly? >> i think you could create a spectrum, if you like, of the world, europe, the european union, u.k. and then the united states. the united states has -- and let's not forget this has been partly luck. most people for the amount of

vaccines want work. we were all hoping for the traditional vaccines to work. but it turned out to be the other way around. they have all worked, but there is a side effect issue. they have enough to vaccinate the majority of its population. european union, coverage, don't have a problem. the problem is the rest of the world. not only are these vaccines from j and j and astrazeneca easier to distribute and use than the other vaccines are easier to distribute and use are the chinese vaccines, where there has been some question of efficacy. that is where the rest of the world is a problem. manus: we had one of the leading minds on the chinese vaccines talking about efficacy. how important is it that we get efficacy data from the chinese? they are the vaccinors of

emerging marks and to the world beyond covax in many ways? >> sure. i don't know who you spoke to. we obsessed about the efficacy of all the vaccines, not just the chinese vaccines. we have been digging days and hours into the data that comes out of all the companies. we know astrazeneca we have been up and down with. all people are asking for is publish the data so that others can see and make their own judgment. but one other thing is important to say is that all these vaccines appear to be so far pretty effective against hospitalizations, severe covid and obviously deaths. so then the rest of it becomes a nuance of how much do we care about break-through infections or not? that is a good conversation to have. but we need the data to be able to make a judgment about it. annmarie: the data will lead us

all. sam, director of research for mia. thank you for the up. here is a recap of the news. >> the e.u. is set ought plans to erase nearly $1 trillion of debt in the next five years. almost a third of it will be in greend bonds. it will use it to finance the recovery from the pandemic. the white police officer who featherweightly shot a black man in a -- who fatally shot a black man in a terrific stob has resigned as well as the police chief. they hope it will heal the community and reconciliation. manus, a bit of bling. luxury seems to be defying the pandemic gloom. first quarter sales soared, surpassing the levels seen in 2019. if jumped over 50% from a year

earlier. that division is a key driver for the company, benefiting from the growth of plans like christian dior and others. global news 24 hours a day on our end at bloomberg "quicktake" powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. anna edwards and manus. manus: thank you very much. i am more understate the luxury. the numbers. christian dior and luis smashing the numbers according to sanford bernstein. that sets the tone. do you like luis, or are you more a dior kind of brand? annmarie: i think i like a little bit of everything. the numbers are just amazing. 2019 level they are surpassing. so prepandemic. one thing that comes to mind though is it is a resurgence as janet was saying in terms of consumers in china, but also do

you think this shows the recovery being more of a k-shape? luxury is doing well, but what about the rest of the market? annmarie: financial assets have risen, and so the wealthier part of society have done better. many people have lost jobs. they are furloughed. so this is definitely the other side of the equation. just the fact on asia. japan jumped 86% on an organic basis. 86%. but a lot of this is online. a lot of the catwalks went online for those companies. so no end to the emerging markets conversation either, annmarie. let's get over to brazil. the central bank says it was forced to intervene to tighten monetary policy last month. they had a spike in energy prices, accelerating inflation. here is an interview. >> we look at what needs to be done in terms of avery jufment

of in-- of he adjustment of inflation. towards the end of the year we think inflation is going back lower. we are adjusting rates so we have our target. when you look at the output gap, we see a difference in 2022. so those things are aligned. >> but you are not planning to take the neutral rate and go back to the neutral rate this year? you are still planning to leave some for 2021? >> the question in every meeting, the first question is do we need sometime itf conditions? >> yes. then the question is how is that going to be? remember that when we placed our interest rates at two, we were envisions a scenario that never happened. before talking about negative growth in the magnitude of 8% or 9%. some people were saying inflation was going to be as low as 1.5%.

none of these things materialized. it is not adjusting inflation for what we think it should be compared to the other rate. it is recognizing that the grate interest rates that we have now were set up for conditions that never materialized and that we need to move rates but still be on a sometime latifah grounds. that is why we mentioned that position. >> the bank president speaking to bloomberg. just ahead we are going to look at the battle to succeed angela merkel terning nasty. we are going to talk to the bundestag faction next. this is bloomberg. bloomberg.

annmarie: 6:45 in the city of london. it is day break europe. i am annmarie hordern.

manus join us in dubai. a c.d.u. chairman is facing off against his rival, the premier mack us sutter in the battle to claim the mantle of merkel's successor. joining us now is the deputy chair for the faction. good morning to you. thank you for joining us. let's start with the potential damage this quite messy debacle could potentially have to your block going into the september election? >> good morning from berlin. daniel: think that this could damage anybody. it is a normal competition between two persons who are very experienced, who lead our two parties. we have two parties. there is a democratic and socialist party. we have two prime ministers,

very experienced. it is quite normal at the first stage of this procedure. it is a debate. it is a normal competition between very high estimated persons. i think for us it is a situation of luxury. we have and i expect it to be taken

this week. manus: look, it is certainly not the norm of what we would expect from german politics. it has become tense. do you think it will be resolved amicablely by friday, or could this continue? >> of course this was not the norm in the last 16 years when angela merkel pause the chancellor here in germany. we had of course for the next period no discussion who should be our front-runner, who should be the candidate for chancellor. but in this situation, it is very normal. when the old chancellor is going out, i think if you look 20 years back, it was a decision between angela merkel an a the what ovarian prime minister -- bavarian prime minister. another 20 years it was between two others. this is quite normal in these situations. but of course we have to solve it. we have to come to an end. i think we are good five minutes ahead of the election on the 26th of september. i expect it to be finished in

this week. annmarie: we are going to get a decision by friday. tense discussions yesterday in that meeting. where is the balance of power right now tipping to? are we closer to who it is going to be? >> a little bit in the direction with the favor of marco. we had an intense discussion for four hours with a lot attending. they heard what our members think, and they are in favor of marco. he is leading in all polls here in germany for a very long time. this was a point yesterday for him.

you supported rim again. you saw him as more progressive, as sort of the answer to progressive movement? >> well, i'm always backing the party leader of the democrat in the democratic procedure. he was elected and us now my party leader, and i am backing him of course. but i also realize what the situation yesterday was with a lot of members of my political

group supporting marco. this is what i heard in this. this is also what i hear in my constituency. this was a backing for marco. but again if he would be your candidate, there is no problem. 's very experienced leader of our party and a very successful prime minister. we have two very brilliant candidates. manus: we shall see whether it close out at the end of the week as you guide. come back and speak to us soon. it is going to be an exciting time now between now and the election in the autumn. thank you, sir. deputy chair of the faction. coming up on the show annmarie and i, big banks preview. this 1 bloomberg. ♪♪

manus: it is day break europe. manus cranny in dubai, and annmarie hordern at london h.q. results season gets into high gear tonight. jpmorgan, goldman sachs, wells fargo. that is before the bell. followed by bank of america and city group on thursday. thank goodness for him. what is the number, 4.17 billion in stock underwriting. annmarie: yes. that is triple, and it is going to be a record. tripling that number in a quarter? thank foodness for spax. fueled by that, it is expected to be an absolutely banner quarter. i like what mike says from wells fargo analysts. he appointmented out the five c's. you was cost control, yield

curve, credit quart, capital return and capital markets. capital markets, the big piece we are looking out for here. look for deal makers like goldman sachs to benefit this quarter. annmarie: what could weigh on the banking results? >> part of it is because expect takes are so high. things like releasing things, that is widely expect the. to some degree that has been priced into these bank earnings. also position like loan growth and the benefit from a steeper yield curve, that not going to benefit banks until later in the year. any wobble here, that really could throw things off considering just how great this quarter is expected to be. manus: i think this is going to come down -- we saw credit swiss last night dumping another $2 billion worth of stocks. could we get anymore color in terms of exposures on the u.s. side?

>> on the u.s. side, everything we have heard is really that the risks here that they face from it or rather the impact has been immaterial. the earnings themselves are unlikely to really have anything related to arkego. if anything, we may get some analyst commentary or questions. then on the call itself, maybe some announcements about risk management. but it won't be that big of a thing for u.s. banks. annmarie: you mentioned yesterday on our call. it will be interesting to see the questions around it in analysts calls. our thanks to dani. later we speaking with wells fargo c.f.u. at 9:00 p.m. u.k. time and 4:00 p.m. in new york. staying up late in europe you want to catch that interview. manus: absolutely. there is one conversation. it is this. it is jay powell, the leader of the fed, he is going to be being to david reubenstein. that is later on at the economic club in washington.

5:00 p.m. u.k. time. these conference calls are going to be grueling. what a beautiful day at home in london. getting back to some semblance of normality. 6854 on the ftse. go london. ♪♪

[captioning performed by the national captioning institute, which is responsible for its caption content and accuracy. visit ncicap.org] >> good morning, welcome to bloomberg markets the european open. i am anna edwards live in london. mark joins me in singapore to take us through the market action. the trade is less an hour away. here are the headlines. mixed day to stocks. investors shrug off rising inflation. jay powell jones david