inflation. >> i just don't think you can make a case for much higher rates. >> the market focuses on the destination and the path to get there is somewhat rocky. >> i think from markets it's 2022 inflation. >> will the fed fight inflation as it rises as the cycle continues. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." jonathan: earnings begins right now. from new york city and's, good morning braided this is -- good morning. equity futures positive 1/10 of 1% on the s&p 500. tom: bank earnings have to be front and center. the first picture of his

earnings season. the print on this, i know you had a ticket for $65,000 on bitcoin. jonathan: many people wish they had a buy ticket. looking at coinbase right now. tom: i don't really pray i just want to aggravate you. [laughter] tom: repeat coinbase with me. lisa: i'm going to let you hang there. this is relevant. let's pair these two. tom: john. 8000 shares. -- john got 8000 shares. lisa: having to do with some of the fintech and some of the emerging players. work with me here. this is going to be relevant to have j.p. morgan and goldman sachs and wells fargo indicate what their future prospects are. tom: i don't agree. jonathan: i don't know what's

going on with either of you. tom: j.p. morgan and goldman sachs, which one measures you the most. jonathan: let's go straight to the price action. equity futures like like this. up around three points. there's a big picture of me, hopefully we can get to the price action. tom: your entourage put that in. jonathan: can we just start again. [laughter] is everyone with us today. is tom sober? bond yields are higher by a couple of basis points. lisa: today we are expecting earnings. let's talk about j.p. morgan kicking off earnings and ash in about 45 minutes time. then we will be getting goldman sachs and wells fargo. this will kick off the whole week. people will be looking to the dealmakers. really saying goldman sachs

could stand to benefit the most from that surge in enemy. jay powell going to be speaking along with a host of other fed speakers. speaking with our own david room and sign -- with our own david rubenstein. interesting what he'll have to say about the vaccination schedule and how that affects their tapering. today ac/dc panel will meet on the distribution of the j&j vaccine. as we research more it seems like it's less likely to have an impact on the vaccinations in the united states but more in the distribution around the world given the marginal production for some of the developing markets. jonathan: thank you so much. i hope we can have a sensible conversation to kick things off. greg, are you there? good luck to you for the next five minutes. what are you looking for from earnings season in the next couple of weeks? >> it will be an interesting one

because we've had such a macro driven environment. talking more about the rotation of relative value opportunities within the equity space. we had earnings season at eight interesting time -- we hit earnings season at an interesting time. i think expectations are pretty high. a high bar to meet for earnings but there's a potential. jonathan: it's often about the outlook as well. a lot of people trying to figure out and get more clarity for some of these companies. what you looking for from the outlook. greg: it is guidance. there's been some lofty expectations. we will have strong earnings growth this year but the question is to 2022. is there is scope for further upgrades. this sense we are looking at in particular which is retail sales this week. looking at the guidance from

some of the consumer discretion sectors will be interesting. the semiconductor sector, supply shortages. is that going to manage itself -- manifest itself in more bullish guidance. i think these are the type of things will focus on. jonathan: -- tom: we are making jokes about coinbase and all of that but i do agree the earnings season is profoundly important. on a micro basis, the derivative dynamics that you study, as if you are speaking out to jamie dimon, mr. solomon, the leadership of wells fargo, would you suggest it shows a bubble, and asset expansion like we witnessed with the rise of bitcoin? greg: i don't think in the equity market space we necessarily see that. if anything we are seeing more of a normalization. we had a very strong equity

market for the last six to nine months. that has been reflected in the volatility space. we still had a vic's above 20 which -- vix above 20. we had normalizations in the volatility space which looks like a midcycle bull market then an end of cycle. tom: in the sense i've never seen that chart, i have never seen that hyperbolic characteristics. there is a way that you engineer a parabola i have never seen that chart. jonathan: that is a lot of capitulation and that chart. a big conversation on what the ultimate inflation hedge is through 2021 and it has certainly not been gold. we have had this conversation about inflation and it's this that outperforms. it's not gold, not the

traditional asset you expect to outperform. lisa: how do you hedge against that macroenvironment. a question here is we take a look at the banks and how they look at the risk building up in markets, do you expect to hear anything or do you see underpinning the market. any pullback in risk-taking following the archegfos's -- archegos situation. greg: what we saw was a very short-term impact. it doesn't appear to many real follow-through is yet evidenced in the price action or the data we look at. invariably it's summing this can a raise? 's around how risks are managed. i think that something that is bound to be a topic that comes up on some of these earnings talks. i think at this stage in the cycle we are at an inflection point and there such a strong

expectation for macro growth. the earnings season will be dominated less by some of the structural factors and more by where we are in the cycle and the expeditions for earnings growth this year and next year. >> what are you looking for in the earnings calls to signify whether people are overpricing more underpricing earnings for the season? greg: i will be focused much less on the numbers where this quarter has been better or worse than expected. and evidence from the commentary from the pools that accompany these earnings releases as to whether the firms are able to guide analysts for the balance of this year and next year. whether we think this cyclical recovery we will see will manifest itself. tom: you will be on conference calls in the old days it was 35 to 40 numbing conference calls.

it's romantic until the seventh call and you doze off into your cup of coffee. we will be on these calls and essentially have got corporate officers gaining out a boom economy. is there evidence they can do that? greg: one of the things we will see in the second half of this year is some may be able to better than others. one of the things we are looking for in this earnings season. we've all -- we had a lot of rotation between value and growth. but over the last month or so we start to see more nuanced trades developed where things are not being driven by broad factors and i think there will be more idiosyncratic stories. some stocks within a sector will be able to beat those lofty expectations. i think that's going to create some opportunities even on a subsector level. jonathan: always good to catch up.

use of cash will be an interesting one. the manager survey has been this massive call for not buybacks. that's actually what investment record -- recommend the companies do. tom: you can divided up in there. frankly you can do all of them at once. to me it is a massive mystery because we've never been here. i don't think bitcoin and the coinbase thing at all. -- i don't mean bitcoin and that coinbase thing at all. we have important price index out. do i ever look at that? once in a while i'm forced to look at it. yet today it is really interesting. there's another tea leaf about a bully economy. -- bull economy. jonathan: reserve release on a better economy. lisa: frankly the fed is more

willing to let them reserve release -- release some of these reserves. the question is how much they see in the economy. will they capitulate to the view of their economists or will they hold out and still say there's a risk. jonathan: these are the kinds of conversations we have this morning around banks after a huge rally through q1. 25% on the kp w. the most-watched bank index out there. a great start to the year. but these trades are starting to stall out. we seen it in copper and crude. tom: i have not looked at credit suisse, but deutsche bank's value, this is under the pq function. 0.39 on deutsche bank. disparity evaluation is there and we are will -- leading first with jp morgan. there is the research call, there's a lot of calls paid -- calls.

jonathan: $2 billion of art -- arc egos -- arch egos linked stock -- archegos linked stock. equity futures up on the s&p. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> bloomberg's learned by the 20th anniversary of 9/11, the biden administration plans to withdraw all u.s. troops with -- from afghanistan. the terrorist attack to the invasion that ousted the taliban leadership. the new deadline means the u.s. will leave a few thousand troops in afghanistan past the may 1

target set up by the trump administration last year. european union has unveiled its blueprint to raise nearly $1 trillion of debt over five years. it will use money to fund its recovery from the coronavirus pandemic. it will be in green bonds using a framework to be published this summer. china says the u.s. is raising tensions by sending a group to taiwan. a delegation is being sent. beijing says the triple -- says taiwan is part of china. hsbc is reemphasizing the importance it places on asia where it gets the bulk of its prod. -- profit. they are moving forfeits top executives from london to hong kong. amongst them the head of global

banking and market -- and markets. as well as the chief executive of global commercial banking. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm our group to -- i'm ritika gupta, this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪

>> i made sure we have 600 million dozers.

of the emaar and -- not of either johnson & johnson and/or astrazeneca. there's enough vaccine that it's basically 100% unquestionable for every single solitary american. jonathan: the president restoring confidence on vaccinations in america. the cdc and fda recommended a pause in vaccinations on the j&j vaccine. good morning, i'm jonathan ferro. earnings season begins. jp morgan coming up at around 30 minutes time. equity futures up 1/10 of 1% on the s&p 500. we approach, we get back near to 1.20 on euro-dollar. yields high by a of basis points. yesterday morning in america was all about vaccinations. i think they did a pretty good job about putting aside concerns about the outlook of

vaccinations underlined the fact j&j accounted for 5% of reported -- recorded shots. and also really emphasizing the fact they secured enough of the vaccine to basically vaccinate 300 million more americans if they needed to. we have done so much. tom: really an extra ordinary story. what we saw in the last 24 hours of his -- is the breath of the administration to tackle topics. there's a seismic shift in the afternoon to the president's forceful statement on september 11 of this year, 20 years on in the end of conflict and war in afghanistan. there's been about 2300 americans who died. jack fitzpatrick joins us in washington. was the pentagon taken by

surprise by mr. biden's unilateral move? jack: i do not believe the pentagon was taken by surprise because biden had been talking about this for a little while. republicans in congress were the ones who were outwardly frustrated about this. clearly there is going to be a fight brewing. maybe one of the early cases in which congress starts fighting over biden's foreign policy rather than staying relatively hands-off. tom: comment on the last 48 hours. pandemic first and then a reset to afghanistan and frankly other issues as well. the working process of the biden administration, what is distinctive about it? >> that depends on what part of their legislation -- legislative agenda you look at. they are juggling a lot of things. they have put off other

priorities that might normally come first. biden use the stimulus and response to the pandemic to define his presidency, usually you would have seen something in a joint address earlier. a budget proposal. he did not have the chance to lay out his vision the way presidents usually do. but he had a chance to move fast on a massive bill that i think basically that's what set him apart from the usual incoming administration. jonathan: we have been totally overwhelmed by the pandemic in the last 12 months, particularly as we rollout this vaccine at port -- that foreign policy has slipped under the radar. taiwan sending in official delegation to taiwan and trying to get allies on site and on board to do the same thing. what's going on there? jack: you heard pushback from chinese officials saying this is not helpful for the u.s. relationship with china. at the same time you have john

kerry headed to shanghai to talk about climate. that is an area where this is flown under the radar a little bit and there hasn't been that much reaction in congress and elsewhere in washington what we are seeing. but that is an important development. jonathan: issues in russia. how do you keep up at the moment and what is the emphasis? jack: i think that's one of the reasons why biden actually has been able to do what he wants without a massive amount of pushback on foreign even though that will be coming. there is a fight over defense spending and his plan in afghanistan. even among critics, one of the more progressive critics of

establishment democratic politics and foreign policy what the stance should be on russia with the troops gathering on ukraine. not a lot of proactive pushback from biden's skeptics right now. there are so many things they are allowing them to juggle and they will fight with them later on, but more or less he is been given free rein -- he has been given free rein. lisa: he may lay out a map on april 28. what will he focus on, given all the issues with pandemic, infra structure and foreign policy? >> the description from nancy pelosi frames this sort of is coming out of the pandemic. i think there will be a significant focus on what they did with the stimulus and clearly they will still be working on this next big infrastructure job, economic

plan. they will have a lot of work left to do on that. it sounds like there will be a significant focus on the legislative agenda relating to the economy coming out of the pandemic. jonathan: good to catch up early in the morning. early in the morning all about vaccinations. just as far as the outlook for vaccinations, i think the nervousness there might've been yesterday was put to one side and then it became about foreign very quickly. tom: it is an organized white house. it's different from the previous tenant. we are getting used to these shifts of three and four stories a day out of washington. the symbolism here. for russia before us, the analyst never-ending battles of afghanistan is tangible. you see it 20 years on from

september 11. jonathan: afghanistan one issue, iran, taiwan, russia. lisa: i thought of you when i was reading a story about how china is actually lobbying specific companies in the u.s. to get relationships with them, not the government. it goes to this idea of possibly getting a more favorable kind of audience then perhaps the biden administration which looks a lot like the trump administration when it comes to china policy. jonathan: i like the lisa thought about me during an article about chinese policy. we will be talking about the banks very shortly. tom: let's focus on the banks. jonathan: directory -- director of equity research will be joining us later. tom: a great lineup. jonathan: it is wednesday braden -- it is wednesday.

i've been doing yoga and meditation in the commercial break spring [laughter] -- commercial breaks. [laughter] jonathan: yields higher by a couple of basis points. tom: would somebody say transitory? jonathan: this is bloomberg. ♪

jonathan: from new york city for audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance." here is the price action going into earnings season. s&p futures up a 10th of 1%. the rustle up about 0.5%. -- the russell up about 0.5%. this has been the story. the other performing small pet -- the underperforming small caps versus big tech. what is it mean for the big banks? -- what does this mean for the big banks? bank of america up 30%. these have been huge gains off

the back of one. with get the bond market. yields have been inching higher through the year but this has been stalling. this one stalled out at the end of march. 1.6 323. yields higher by a couple of basis points. as you look cross asset and start thinking about the cyclical trade, how much esteem is left and have we run out? will we see it in banks? tom: i think it's important to bring commodities into the story as well. it is something we will address in april and into may as well. we are starting strong in the earnings season. our topline people just went live seconds ago. they will be telling global wall street all the nuances on the trade banks today. we start strong with their chief equity shop at bloomberg intelligence. i want to go to to the chat out there. we were making jokes.

what is the whisper now on earnings? >> i think it is closer to 30% on growth. the real number could be closer to 35. thankfully what we've had over the next several quarters is a struggle to catch up with the rate of improvement and economic improvement inflation indicators. everything we follow would suggest every bit of inflation is being passed through and then some. the dollar has been relatively benign. there's not a term and is not a terminus on a short-term risk. what we are setting to water the longer term indicators. in particular, margins. the analyst consensus, we would get new peak margins by the middle of 2022. tom: a unit dynamic and a price dynamic. where on the income statement is bloomberg intelligence focused on margins. >> you have to look at cost

inputs. you just look at the growth margin line. how much are you experiencing and then you want to watch wages frankly. nobody is talking about this, but the fact the employment market has improved to levels that took 4.5 years to get to following the financial crisis has gone unnoticed. i think we will see wage pressure. i think there are some degree of labor shortages out there. companies are struggling to find new employees as they move forward. and then the big bazooka is what happens. we've got this big fiscal package out there, the proposal will likely be paid for by an accelerated increase in taxation. what does that do to the margin outlook? no analyst has that in their forecast. i think there are a lot of lines to look for. it could be a relatively volatile inflation outlook into

2022 and we are not anticipating that. jonathan: let's sit on taxes. is it as simple as going back brought in 2017 and just reverse engineering it? >> it's not for a lot of reasons. the biggest reason is we are not going back to a 35% rate. at that point we were at 35% in which 21%. we are likely to go to something around it 28% rate which puts that at an effective rate between 24% to 25%. there is a lot of nuance because many proposals are geared towards attacking that multinational revenue source, capital that's constantly trip -- trapped overseas at low tax rates. there are a lot of efforts to get to that figure may mean are effective rate is higher than 24% to 25%. the gap between the statutory or proposed rate and the effective

rate corporations pay could close quite a bit as a result of what we've seen with fiscal policy and tax reform going forward. jonathan: that's why so many people find this so difficult to make a call on what the future looks like. we touched on this earlier, the fund manager survey revealing something interesting. what are your thoughts on this? >> we think there's room for capital deployment of all stripes over the course of this year. dividends relative to sale. all of them got completely slashed over the course of 2020 and at multiyear lows. we think we will get summer between seven presented a present revenue recovery in the first quarter alone only to accelerate over the course of 2021. we should see some recovery in all forms. we should see capital spending start to come back. i think the big question mark is where does that get concentrated. much of the capital spending has gone overseas to boost supply chains, production chains and

overseas economies. will that come into the united states as we shift supply chains. the big question mark everyone has is how much it will go to tech versus non-tech as well. how much of it is true industrial long-term investment as opposed to shorter-term productivity enhancing technology investment. those are also big questions we need to ask ourselves. >> you talked about the idea of wage increases being a risk that a lot of people were not thinking about. we have heard about labor market shortages trying to reignite after the pandemic. what are you expecting to hear on that front. at what point does it become a tail risk for the equity valuations than perhaps the tailwind for the economy. gina: for 20 years now it hasn't been a tail risk. i say that with all due respect, it's very difficult to tie any

sort of wage induced pressure on margins because what we've experienced for the bulk of the last couple of decades is time where wages only followed revenue growth. we actually haven't experienced a point in time where wages have been so profoundly strong. that is created pressure on corporate margins. they been able to navigate the demands first to slowly add labor force and add to wage. the result is to ever increase in operating margin. the operating margin peaks have occurred as a result of changes of interest rates. so if we are going into a new regime where we have inflation pressure prayed we have some wage pressure. this is another case where analysts are going to struggle to model the environment because it hasn't existed for much of the last several decades. we could be at that point now but we could also never see double-digit gdp growth. we have not seen a sort of rate

of recovery and revenue growth like we are expecting over the course of the next year. as a matter of the fact we also have never seen a pandemic related shutdown. in modern financial market history. there's a lot of unknowns. the earnings stream is very strong. we are brisk -- we're struggling to navigate where we are headed. lisa: people are looking at the banks and their guidance. fund managers indicated they were the most overweight banks acted 2018. from a positioning perspective, is this sector price to perfection? gina: i doubt it and i do because when things were perilously low in the relative weighting to financials in comparison to other sectors. they certainly were starting to inch their way into financials but we've been through a decade

in which investors have generally shunned financials in favor of other cyclical sectors and in particular in favor of larger cap growth stocks in the s&p 500. i strongly doubt we are over allocated to financials. you would have to compare to something like 20 -- 2007 -- the 2005 to 2007 as a proxy for when investors were overweight financials or irrationally bullish about the housing market and the outlook for financial to constantly print money. in the short term do we get overbought? absolutely. but we also start to break out above key long-term secular resistance levels. really just over the last couple of months break above that 2007 peak on financial performance which could be a key indicator of strength yet to come as opposed to weakness. tom: you own the high ground on

saying we've got to be in the market. all-cash is a place you are not comfortable being. they are missing jp morgan this morning. at 1.88 times book value. how do i buy my first share jp morgan after jamie dimon hangs up on the call? gina: i think you think about the long term. tom: but the new terminal value is with every thing going on, the new terminal value in three years you got to start looking at five-year terminal value. gina: you have to think about it in relative terms. if you think about financials, price-to-book ratios and relative terms to the rest of the s&p 500 you are still sitting at very low levels, more than a standard deviation below long-term average for financials relative to the s&p. when you think about it on book value. tom: whether it's amazon or bank

-- banking we have to. gina: you also have to think about the cycle. we are in double-digit growth right now. where will we be in 2022 or 2023? jonathan: thank you. i wasn't even talking to gina, i was talking to our audience worldwide. we get earnings from jp morgan, looking forward to that. earnings after a stock pop of a little more than 20% so far year-to-date. trading up about 8/10 of 1%. i'm jonathan ferro. taking another deep breath. up four points on the s&p, we advance a little bit less then a 10th of 1% in the bond market. yields are higher by a basis point.

crew doing ok. 61 handle on wti. euro-dollar 1.1961. that's a stronger euro. up next, it's earnings season and it kicks off with jamie dimon's jp morgan. this is bloomberg surveillance. ♪ >> with the first word news, i'm ready to go to. a giant -- egypt has seized the giant container ship the block the suez canal. the ship is insured for third-party losses. they claim the damages is largely unsupported. the rollout of johnson & johnson's coronavirus vaccine marks another setback for world inoculation campaign and it's happening as vaccinations were picking up in europe and other regions where there's been delays.

u.s. officials urged a pause to review rare cases of blood clots. the u.s. chamber of commerce is urging senators to reject a democratic backed voting rights bill. the powerful business lobbies as it would oppose restrict is on advocating for and against candidates. the house passed the measure but it's unlikely to get the 60 votes needed in the senate because most republicans oppose it. the world largest cryptocurrency broke the 64,000 threshold for the first time. the move is bullish ahead of coinbase's listing. the exchange is likely to have a valuation of around $100 million. credit suisse sold about $2 billion of stock tied to the implosion of archegos. the firm became center of one of the biggest margin because of

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jonathan: jp morgan, $4.50. $.78 year-over-year. adjusted revenue for first quarter. the estimate $30.42 million. you will hear a lot more about reserve relief. the first quarter includes 5.2 billion dollars of credit reserve releases firmwide. we will touch on that in a moment. first quarter investment banking revenue, $2.85 billion. they crushed that one. jamie dimon singh credit reserves its $26 billion are appropriate -- jamie dimon says credit reserves at $26 billion are appropriate. tom: a simple return on equity at 23%. the first numbers i'm looking at. we look at different ideas like the capital ratio at 13%. industry-leading numbers.

you see it with a lift in futures as well. the scope and scale of selected numbers as i dive into it. how about assets under management. up 28%. i'm not even sure how to digest that number. jonathan: the stock down for tenths of 1%. jamie dimon same consumer spending returns to pre-pandemic levels. that's quite a headline from the ceo of jp morgan. consumer spending has returned to pre-pandemic levels. lisa: it talks about the v-shaped we've gotten and beyond that given how much people -- money people have in savings accounts. how much this is priced in, i think that will be the key question. indicating, smashing expectations and yet shares are lower in pre-trading. >> it's going to be about the outlook. as you indicated, the cause there will be a lot of questions.

going forward from here, does growth return in a big way. a positive buildup in a massive way in the last 12 months. does loan growth return as well? tom: big banks may be less so in the regionals. let me go to the principles is jp morgan puts us out under the dimon note. tangible book value up 10%. i'm seeing a 13% statistic there as well. ken, i want to go to use of cash and if they did a 4.3 billion share repurchase coming out of this pandemic. what do these banks and what does mr. dimon do with the reality of all that cash? ken: jamie dimon has said we are

over capitalized. the fed last month said by july we will be able to increase their dividend and also buybacks that would be a big change since the last 12 months. so return of capital is a big theme for being an investor in sprayed jonathan: that headlock -- investor in banks. jonathan: loan demand remains challenged. do you see that persisting through the early part of this year into the middle? ken: it is incredibly important because loan volumes and loan balances both for consumer and commercial is going to drive the delta for performance of the banks. we almost maxed out in terms of the investment banks for jp morgan, 50% of revenue comes from the investment bank. over the last five years, jp morgan has been the only bank

that has positive net interest income compared to the other large banks. that's an incredible fact than the low rate environment we also first needed loan activity. so i don't think jp morgan on the earnings pool really wants to talk about net interest income given that it is such a difficult challenge. jonathan: another headline crossing the investment banking revenue at $2.85 billion. fix sales and trading revenue. upside surprise there. likewise in equity sales. $3.29 billion. i think it's fair to say the first quarter was pretty decent for jp morgan. lisa: they crushed it which is why it's surprising the shares are lower after beating expectations to give you a sense of how much they beat. stock trading up 47%. it is not about this, it is not

the area people want to see growth in. frankly we've already seen trading volumes go down dramatically. we've seen deal volumes up. jp morgan crushed that. what are people looking at that sending shares lower? loan growth was a measly 1% on this backdrop. ken: i think it relates to growth and return of capital. jp morgan has done incredibly well, they tend to outperform the other large banks and i think when you look ahead to the rest of the year for the analysts, of the concern is always the first quarter is typically the strongest quarter and seasonally it begins. to put these kinds of numbers together for the next quarter and than the quarter after that will be challenging. that's why they will talk about return capital. tom: i want to go there but i think it is so important, we

will put these headlines up. jp morgan does a great job of laying out the overall bank and then these categories as well. you know this is all about technology and buried in the stream of headlines is mobile customers up 9%. i am taking that almost as a revenue proxy. can you move that over to a bank that will deliver high single digit revenue stream out 36 or 60 months? ken: we have had during the years the discussion of bricks and mortar and branches but it's him is like a home depot where the omni-channel shopping. your ability to do banking that most consumers are able to do through their mobile phone. but additionally, a lot of banking gets done coming into the branch, particularly for small business owners and there is also they are increasing the

number of financial centers and branches in markets they don't have a presence. that's why that omni-channel gives them a capability with technology. jonathan: fantastic to catch up with you. cfo the global director of equity research. a huge data dump. up to a 20% plus rally into this earnings report. the commentary from jamie dimon is quite interesting. loan demand remains challenged. the ceo this bank believe the economy could have multiyear growth. the outlook from jamie dimon in jp morgan, last week from a personal perspective, maybe this boom and go into 2023. the bank itself the stories loan demand remains challenging. tom: separate and tangential, but i've got to bring it up. what's not in this statement. what is not is archegos.

this is the bank that dodge the bullet. it's not a banner headline here but i'm looking at a normal bank doing a normal report. we won't get that from selective competitors. jonathan: you will get it in the call. the call will be interesting. 13 point 3 billion -- $13 billion. the estimate 13.31. we get a picture early on of where the strength has been in investment banking trading. after q1 that can fade. lisa: this is an interesting moment because people got these checks from the government and put them toward paying down debt , towards not needing the loans these banks profit from. one thing jamie dimon said was that cards outstanding remain lower. even as spending increases deposits up 32%. jonathan: coverage continues

right here on bloom -- "bloomberg surveillance." up next, goldman sachs on deck. futures positive on the s&p. from new york city this morning, good morning. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> we bounce back from the kind of down we had, you're just going to end up with inflation. >> i just don't think you can make a case for much higher rates. >> the market focus is on the destination, and the path to get there is somewhat rocky. >> i think for markets, it is 2022 inflation that is more important. >> will the fed fight inflation, contain inflation as it rises, as the cycle continues? >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: jp morgan down, goldman sachs up next. good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on bloomberg tv and radio. alongside tom keene li