consumer spending is the service side of the economy. >> everything we follow suggests inflation is being passed through and then some. >> the market is overly priced for inflation risk. >> the dow has made it clear what they're going to do. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." i'm jonathan ferro, tom keene is taking an early weekend. futures are up on the s&p 500. confirmation this week that things are getting better. lisa: tom keene taking time to think about his cash fund position given the dynamism we have seen. is this as good as it gets is the key question underpinning why bond yields are so low, why

they are going lower as we get these blowout numbers and as we get a sense of optimism around the world. jonathan: the numbers are just fantastic. consumers flushed with cash. have we ever started a recovery this way? that is the commentary got from the banks this week. we have never seen consumers come from a downturn in this shape. lisa: i love how they try to paint the idea of low consumer, low demand. they're saying this is a good thing, not a bad thing after j.p. morgan said something more negative. he was saying it is good to have an under leveraged consumer. this is a key question. will the loan demand continue? will it pick up or is this as good as it gets? will people sit on their hands as they wait for something better? jonathan: morgan stanley coming up later. we will be talking about a massive quarter for the investment bake over at --

investment bank over at goldman-s thinks -- over at goldman sachs. i think bank of america was early this week so look for those numbers this morning. i want to show you the price action. shaping up as follows on the equity market, higher on the s&p 500. we advance 1/10 of 1%. heading for a fourth straight week of gains. yields are unchanged, 157. the fx market, the euro-dollar a push higher. euro-dollar 119.78. lisa: as well as the weaker bond market, the higher yield the lower the price. has that gotten worked out? that is one of the questions underpinning the market moves. we expect morgan stanley first-quarter earnings, they

could come perhaps at 6:30. the expectation will be for a blowout capital markets quarter. the key question will be how did their acquisitions of e-trade play into their acquisitions play into -- their acquisitions play into profitability? we get some housing data in respect to building permits. interesting to see how much optimism there is in building new construction at times of high lumber cost with -- which cap demands -- which caps demands for homebuyers. not a lot of inventory. today, president biden posting his first major meeting with a leader of a nation, and that is prime minister of japan coming to the white house. they will be talking about taiwan, what their strategy is towards china. very interesting to see what

they get on the same page with and how contentious the issue becomes. jonathan: shout out to the masters champion in the last week. the big story in the last week is what happened with cpi and what did not happen in the bond market, what happened with retail sales and did not happen in the bond market. bonds rallied. retail sales coming in with an upside surprise. for this equity market, it has been by the fact and this bond market has been by the rumor. lisa: yesterday's moves did not make sense. if you get better than expected retail sales, you see the recovery beginning, you see the vaccination effort in the states, why did the bond yield fall so much? people are pointing to technical issues. i will also point to the fed.

every thursday 4:30 p.m., i look at the fed's balance sheet and it grew to a record. is this really what is underpinning the move? jonathan: if tom keene were here, he would tell me to get a life. [laughter] mickey levy joining us now, berenberg's chief economist. inflation coming in hot, retail sales coming in better, bonds rallied. do you think this inflation story could be more persistent? mickey: i do believe it will be more persistent. the cbi, we have a base effect and higher oil prices going through retail. we all know the economy is reopening. if, following the reopening, there is continued strength in aggregate demand, which i expect

based on all the stimulus, we have never seen anything like it. businesses will have the flexibility to raise product prices which we are beginning to see. inflation is going to rise modestly. i think there is no question at all. i listened to your opening remarks. i think too many people, including the fed, are looking back to post-financial crisis and saying we will have the same pattern this time. if you look at monetary policy, fiscal policy, the consumer, banking, or any other industry, it is opposite of what happened post-financial crisis. i think the fed is overly saying that inflation is going to stay at 2%. there is no question it is going to rise. as we speak, we see businesses

experiencing higher operating costs. and they are announcing product price increases to maintain margins. it is an obvious trend. tom: -- jonathan: you have a policymaking condition that has not much in common with the previous cycle. i wonder how much of a risk you think that is? lisa: -- mickey: it is a risk because our policymakers in the administration and the fed are operating as if it is very similar to following the financial crisis. back then, there was modest fiscal stimulus. there was a lot of zero interest rates and qe by the feds. back then, all of that increase in banks reserves -- increase in bank reserves never got into the economy.

it did not stimulate the economy. this time around, you have seen not only a huge increase in bank reserves, but bank deposits are trillions higher. it is ready to be spent and now we are seeing it being spent. you are going to get the excess demand that allows businesses to raise product prices. you will see higher inflation and the fed will be caught by surprise because it is following the wrong model. lisa: following the wrong model? what model should it be following? mickey: we should be following basic economics and what history tells us. the last decade is only 10 years of history. if you go through history -- my co-author and myself have written a paper on the history of deficit and inflation. it is clear there was all this

deficit spending that has dramatically increased household disposable incomes and saving and the monetary stimulus. you will get a significant amount of excess demand in the economy by excess demand. in the next couple of months as the economy recovers, there will be more of retail sales recovery. beyond the business sector coming back and durables continuing and housing doing well, you will see a continued economic strain. that is what any macro model would tell you. the fed is still relying on what happened when we did qe. lisa: let's put some numbers on this.

you are talking about the big question, what happens after the first couple of years emerging from the pandemic. the expectations for inflation for the next five to 10 years is around 2.7%. where should that be based on what you have observed? mickey: it is hard to say. i expect the market-based expectations of inflation are going to drift higher. you can't say where it should be because inflationary expectations are unobservable. my read is, with this type of economic growth, not just in the economy but in the second half of the year and in 2022, inflation will move up to 2.5%. that is a solid number which is high enough to make the fed

uncomfortable. i expect that is consistent with strong growth. one thing in the fed's revisions of economic growth, they increased their forecast of real gdp above potential and lowered their unemployment rate to where they think the natural rate is. they still have forecasted inflation anchored at 2.5%. it did not add up. jonathan: it was good to catch up. mickey levy there. from new york city, good morning. the week is not over yet. jp morgan numbers coming in about an hour. a look into the fed's next meeting. a bid date -- a debate potentially around tapering in the future.

i find it fascinating we are already there. up on the first quarter after a couple of weeks of data, we are already having this discussion. i find that unreal. yields unchanged after a big rally this week. in the equity market, all-time highs on the s&p 500. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: there was a mass shooting last night at a fedex facility in indianapolis. eight people were killed and four others were wounded. authorities say the shooter killed himself. it is located near the indianapolis airport. it is not clear if the shooter worked there. in china, there has never been an economic rebound like this. gdp road -- gdp rose a record

percentage. china's economy has improved slightly from the first quarter of 2020. consumer spending lacked during the early stages of recovery picked up in the first quarter. in hong kong, jimmy lai has been sentenced to 14 months in prison. he is charged with attending protests and security offenses. they are reviewing cases against hong kong's most hope profile people. the pause on the johnson & johnson vaccine could stretch out for a few weeks, that is based on an advisory panel. the committee is wearing evidence of reports that people developed rare blood clots in the brain. the biggest sale by a bank ever, jp morgan took advantage of some

of the cheapest borrowing costs by spending $13 billion of bonds to extend its capital. they reported their best capital -- their best quarter ever. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> our customers, our teammates, and others are saying -- this is

something we have to make it clear that we stand for the principles of the right to vote and we should not infringe upon that. that was a statement from this week. you look at the list of people, those fall into all different political sides. this is what america is all about. jonathan: brian moynihan there catching up with david westin on the corporate stance in politics in this country. in new york city alongside lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. i'm smiling because i know tom keene is looking from the other side. equity futures up around two points on the s&p 500. into the bond market, yields coming in a little bit. what a rally yesterday. euro-dollar, 119.81. let's sit there on the bond market. a big week of gains for this treasury market in the context

of high cpi, retail sales better than expected. lisa: we got the better than expected chinese data, the gdp figures coming out strong from china. it is a two-pronged engine when it comes to the global growth picture. why are bond yields falling? jonathan: the conversation around is this as good as it gets, i find it interesting people have switched to that story. what happens in the bond market is about what happens cumulatively in 2021. just continual growth, the cumulative process of it that reintroduces the rate factor. i'm surprised we are saying this is as good as it gets as if all you are seeing is one linear move and as soon as you go lower, that is it. lisa: the interesting thing is that stock markets are following a different narrative then --

than bond markets. is it as good as it gets? did the bond markets ever price in the boom? are stocks going to stay isolated in their own world? they are a good discounting mechanism. jonathan: what a busy day we had yesterday. we had bank earnings pouring through. we were expecting better than expected retail numbers and we got it. we had headlines around sanctions on russia from the u.s. this week has been a big shift for this administration, a bigger focus on foreign policy. but start -- let's turn to jeannie. what is happening with for policy from the new administration? >> it was a big week for joe biden. this week the focus shifted from the pandemic and the push for infrastructure onto foreign

policy. we saw back-to-back big decisions, the first being the plan to withdraw combat troops from afghanistan after 20 years. the next day, pretty sweeping sanctions on russia. they might -- they might not have gone far as some people wanted,, -- some people wanted, but it let vladimir putin know that this is a new administration that when we are attacked, we will respond. that response will be measured. the big takeaway for me is that there is quite a decoction me between joe biden, the foreign policy president and joe biden the domestic president. i think that is what i'm starting to see. jonathan: let's talk about for policy. what is the objective of the

sanctions put on in the last 24 hours. is it purely punishment for interfering in elections? or is it -- or is there an endgame here? jeanne: there is a question of how effective are sanctions. do they actually change behavior? there is a mixed back on that. -- in next bag -- a mixed bag on that. not only did they pass these sanctions, but they also impacted american financial institutions. the idea is to really hit vladimir putin where he is in terms of his ability to get the resources he needs to continue to run this government. russia is at this point vladimir putin. i think these are sanctions that are pretty sweeping. they did not do anything about nord stream 2, nor did we decide

to send battleships into the plexi. -- into the black sea. i do think it is a carrot stick -- carrot-stick approach because he was hitting russia with sanctions, he also called vladimir putin and offered a meeting to focus on climate change in a third country. that is something putin will want to do. whether or not he does it, we are not sure. i do think we see joe biden saying if you want a deal, we will deal with you. climate change we must deal with you on. but if you are going to attack, be it solarwinds or the election, we are going to respond. lisa: you said that joe biden, the foreign president, is different than the domestic policy president. can you elaborate? jeanne: this dichotomy, it was

not expected for me. both domestically and from a foreign policy perspective, on the campaign trail this was a moderate candidate. this is someone who said i will not go as far as a bernie sanders or elizabeth warren when it comes to a takeover of health care, for instance. yet in the first of 85 days, we have seen proposals for massive spending. not just massive spending but a massive preengineering of the domestic -- a massive reengineering of the domestic life. whether or not he succeeds in that, we are not clear. it is more than just the proposal and the cost. it is the fact that he ran as a bipartisan leader, someone who will work across the aisle. he has not done that so far. he says he is going to, but moderate republicans are saying it seems more symbolic than

actual. that is the dichotomy i am seeing, more towards a moderate foreign policy approach, as opposed to this domestic -- i'm going to be the next fdr or lbj where the government is much more assertive than it has been. jonathan: they have moved the goalpost. it is great to catch up. lisa, i think that has been the issue in d.c. the goalposts have moved. this used to be about a united congress, now this is about a united country. the margins he has in congress are so small. in the house it is a handful of seats, in the senate it is a 50/50 split. can they manage the changes? lisa: how large is the window where we are not worried about deficits and we can keep spending? it seems to be closing quickly

as the economy heats back up which will create more headwinds for him. jonathan: coming up, christopher marangi. looking forward to that conversation. all-time in the equity markets. good morning to you all. this is bloomberg. ♪

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jonathan: from new york city to our audience worldwide, we are almost there. equity futures on the s&p 500 up three points. the nasdaq declining, but a big week of gains. it's a price the week in the bond market, yields looking like this on tense. unchanged. on a two year, around 16 basis points. better than expected retail sales, treasuries, yields lower. treasuries rallied, yields lower. not much has changed. it is a tug-of-war between the cyclical factor and the -- factor. 157 -- 1.5745 on the 10 year.

what about europe? what are the sources of upside surprises? the euro-dollar 1.19. can europe start to deliver growth? when we look abroad, elsewhere outside the u.s. for growth surprises in the coming months. lisa: that could be the next leg of where the trade is. let's turn to another region which is china. we have gdp data and other economic figures. bloomberg correspondent joining us now. how good are these figures? people talked about china going past the target they set for themselves for the year. >> it is no doubt good on a headline basis. record growth from a year ago,

we are seeing it's heading in the ritz direction, strong readings for retail sales and a pickup on private investment. when you look under the bonnet, when you consider base affects compared to a year ago, we saw a slowdown in china's economy. in the industrial side is starting to cool down a little bit. there is still strong headline growth, every country -- recovery for china. but it could be cooling down in months ahead. jonathan: as we talk about the bond market in asia and china -- and as we talk about the bond market in asia and china? enda: there was a lot of uncertainty if it would make repayments on its bonds. we are getting some signs it

will make a payment to the regulators. we are getting signals that they are on top of this. they are on track and will publish financials in due course. it is still a big dollar borrow. it has a way to play out yet. jonathan: i think a lot ofle ft. enda there. this morning, europe having one of the biggest dust busiest weeks of bond -- one of the busiest weeks of bond sales. in asia, we have had concerns around an issuer out of china. lisa: it has been an amazing week. can we sit on the jp morgan news? they are sitting on the biggest sale of bank debt in the u.s. it raises the question, why?

some people say it is because of regulatory issues and what kind of capital they have. it is a estranged -- it is a strange issuance. jonathan: morgan stanley numbers should come and about 60 minutes. as i said, we had bank of america come out early and goldman sachs come out early. we are looking out for morgan stanley's earnings later. joining us today is christopher marangi, gamco investors chief investment officer. we have seen some great numbers and stellar executions from goldman sachs in the first quarter. have you enjoyed what you have heard so far from the financials in america? christopher: absolutely. this was largely expected which is why stocks did not do a whole lot. you have this combination of strong m&a, a reawakened

consumer which is helping credit card balances, credit charge-offs, and the prospect of a regulatory touch combining to drive earnings and probably a multiple higher. jonathan: the broader equity market is still the value versus growth story which we have been anticipating for the last six months or so. value could have a good run. do think there is a chance for value outperforming growth? christopher: i do. value has had a little bit of a pause. that is partly in anticipation of strong digital advertising revenue. the market has more balance than it did nine months ago where the discrepancy between growth and value was as wide as it has been since the 1920's. i think this value rotation has been led by model stocks, banks,

travel and leisure. lisa: jonathan started saying this is as good as it gets, that is the tenor of the conversation. yes in this moment some continuing. what -- you have seen this momentum continuing. what do you have to say to people who say this is as good as it gets? christopher: what worries me is that nobody seems to be worried about anything. it is hard to see what takes the economy down. we can list usual suspects. i think the economy in the u.s. will be stronger than anticipated. i think the market is going to go higher. then we think about 2022 and the risk of inflation, politics comes back. for the next few months, i think it is clear sailing. it is hard to know what we are missing. lisa: higher inflation, you said you found the beige book

interesting. it gave you some relevant information. what are you seeing in inflation in the years to come and how does that affect what you are investing in now? christopher: we have been worried about inflation for some time. i think you have a few different things. you have supply shortages in goods and in labor. what were the changed is the political will. the political establishment today is much more willing and invites higher inflation. that is the main change versus the last few years. as we think about it, we are looking at companies with pricing power and own hard assets. i think a lot of wealthy people are thinking about those things, as well. jonathan: elaborate on this. -- elaborate for us.

christopher: it is known the younger generation pays for experiences rather than things. one of the things they like is watching sports, however they watch it. owning the atlanta braves or the new york knicks, both of which are doing well, is a great asset to own for the long-term. jonathan: i was going to say, the best -- in that story, what you think it is? christopher: my favorite story is liberty braves. there is a likelihood that the company goes private in a public to private arbitrage. lisa: tom keene took the day off after the red sox to lose. they lost, he took the day off,

and now he is thinking about investing some of his cash in the red sox. we are seeing a lot of interesting accounting mechanisms. it fueled the first quarter capital market earnings, especially the winnings for the big banks. how much does that draw your concern and terms of the fragility of this confidence? things are getting frothy on the margins. christopher: just when you think things are frothy, they get frothy or. we have seen these back market cool off considerably -- the spac market cool off considerably. that is going to drive a lot of feeds. we think the underpinnings of an m&a are the -- of a m&a are there. that is any opportunity to benefit from the advisors by

finding targets that are going to get takeover. jonathan: always good to catch up. christopher marangi there. i note, is going to miss this conversation. can you imagine how messy that could have been in terms of sports? lisa: brutal. jonathan: let's talk about the risk in this market. the risk has predominantly been in the upside one. but we also talk about the downside risks on this program. i think for the economy, that is a risk, that the labor market recovers more quickly than the federal reserve expects. i spent some time catching up with -- and we talked about this. if the federal reserve is being conditioned by the lifecycle, the lessons learned of the last cycle and applying those lessons to a cycle that will be totally different this time around. the fed has removed the risk of being too early and committed to

being late. the question we have to ask is, how late? the major risk is the labor market recovers at a quicker pace. if it does so, it introduces a factor for the fed they have not experienced for a while that maybe they have to move rates quickly. i'm not talking about this year. i am talking about the possibility that they have to get through neutral a lot quicker than many people anticipated in a way we have not seen in previous cycle. then all of a sudden you have a completely different scenario in front of you. lisa: the fed is not the only one conditioned by the history of the past couple of decades. it is also the markets that are buying with the fed is selling. even christopher was saying it is not going to rest in monetary policy, it resides in the policymakers that decide to spend. policy uncertainty is one of the

key drivers in the month to come -- in the months to come. jonathan: good morning to you. i'm jonathan ferro alongside lisa abramowicz. equity markets, all-time highs. in the bond markets, yields not even in. a break of 160 in yesterday's session. this friday at a record high, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: there has been another mass shooting in the u.s. in indianapolis where a gunman opened fire last night at the fedex facility near an airport. eight people were killed and four were wounded. it is not known if the gunman was an employee at fedex. it will be all about china today when president biden meets with

japan's prime minister. this will be his first meeting with a foreign leader since taking office. china's shadow it will loom a large almost every topic. they are expected to discuss taiwan and supply chains among other issues. -- is trying to -- iranians are demanding the u.s. state what sanctions it would lift in negotiations to revive the broken agreement. they describe what they would do to scale back nuclear activity. congressional democrats have introduced a bill to expand justices on the u.s. supreme court from nine to 13. that would change the makeup of the court for the first time in 150 years, but the measure is not likely to go anywhere now. nancy pelosi said she will not bring it to the floor.

republicans call it "a power grab." "bloomberg surveillance -- global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> there were two reasons to do it, one out of caution to see what we are dealing with.

second, to make sure they are alert about what to do with it. jonathan: dr. fauci there on the johnson & johnson vaccine which takes a pause in the u.s. good morning to you all. your friday morning price action is shaping up as follows on the s&p 500, all-time highs -- s&p 500, all-time highs. a big rally through this week and particularly in yesterday's session. euro-dollar, 1.1987. the dollar store, coming in to 21, the consensus trade was pretty confident.

we have a whole lot of news over the past month or so. lisa: and the question is how much we see positioning. people without short dollar positions and now we are recalibrating and can get back into a weaker dollar story. people were betting the bond yields would go up. they did, how much of this is a short squeeze? jonathan: i have talked about journalists being seduced's dashed being seduced and -- being seduced and sometimes we are seduced by action. i think we got a taste of that in the bond market yesterday. let's talk about the vaccine rollout. we have been looking forward to the johnson & johnson vaccine because it is a single dose. the hopes we could -- the hopes were we could vaccinate a lot of the world with the j&j effort. that got hit this week. let's talk to andrew pekosz.

the mrna vaccines and the traditional once, what we know so far? -- what do we know so far? andrew: even given the concerns that came out this week, all of the vaccines that are on the market, particularly in the u.s. are performing quite well in terms of reducing infection rates. more importantly, in producing severe infection rates, hospitalizations, and deaths. that is the positive spin we have to keep a focus on. all of the data is pointing to these vaccines being one of the most critical tools we will have to get the pandemic under control. jonathan: a lot of people criticize the response from the cdc and the fda to support the rollout of the johnson & johnson vaccine. in your mind, you think a

vaccination -- do think that supports a vaccination program or does it undermine it? andrew: in public health, a principal is you want to be preemptive. you want to solve problems before they become major problems. this action falls into that category. the second you see a signature of a potential problem, we have to assess how big of a problem that could be and what the strategy is going forward to maintain public trust. in this case, the specific kind of blood clot disease -- this is not just a problem with clotting , this is a specific syndrome that involves clotting and a low platelet numbers. that is very unique. by identifying these cases, identifying the populations that may be at risk and fischer beating information about this to the medical community, we

will be able to prevent a lot of serious adverse effects because not the medical community people know how to treat these vaccine-related blood clotting disorders which have to be treated differently from most normal clotting disorders. i am supportive of this. i think we can use this as a way to improve public trust in the vaccine because we are paying attention to these things and making sure our path forward minimizes these affects. lisa: that is the message from the medical community, it is better to be transparent to get trust from a hesitant population . yet, there was data showing as many as one in three doses of covid vaccines are going unused in states across the country. vaccine hesitancy is a real thing. is what you are talking about enough to bring them back online if they were hesitant before the

issue with j&j begin? andrew: absolutely not. i think vaccine hesitancy is a multi-faceted issue. from having some town halls with people to answer questions they have, i think there is a large portion that is hesitant who are just looking for more information, more guidance in terms of what the risks and benefits are. there is so much misinformation out there that tends to propagate faster than real information. we really have to make an effort to educate people, make them comfortable with what is out there. the data is extremely positive about this vaccine and its ability to be the major tool to help us control the outbreak. lisa: speaking on the one in three doses that has not been used across the country, based on this hesitancy starting before 34% -- before 40% has

been vaccinated, does it indicate it will take longer to get to the 70% to 75% level we are aiming for? andrew: absolutely. particularly when you think about we are limited to vaccinating our adult population 16 and older. we would have to get a high level of adults to buy in and get the vaccine. this becomes more complicated when you talk about the equity issue in that there are economic groups and urban populations that are higher on the rate of vaccine hesitancy. there is a lot of work that needs to be done, particularly in communication routes. we have science supporting the safety and efficacy of this. we have to think about the messaging. finding the populations that are

hesitant and targeting those messages to those populations so they can get a fair understanding of the benefits that are coming with vaccination. jonathan: it is great to catch up. have a great weekend. andrew pekosz, johns hopkins bloomberg school of public health. 3.3 million doses per day. 198 million doses have been given so far in the u.s. let's take that rate and get to the 75% rate you mentioned, it would take three months. a lot of people wonder if the 3.3 million per day starts moving the other way, we start bumping up against constraints. we have made an effort to widen the eligibility pool and then you bump up against hesitancy which shows in the numbers. lisa: the fact that there are doses unused and appointments unfulfilled is foreboding.

jonathan: coming up, jason draho. the euro-dollar is 1.1991. equities, all-time highs. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> the consumer is let loose, they're going to start spending. >> going forward, the service side of the economy, not the economy side. >> the market overly priced for that inflation risk in the near material. we're going to have higher inflation to come. >> they're not doing anything. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: you've made it. from new york city for our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance" live on tv and radio. alongside lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. tom keene taking a long weekend. we have made it to the end of the week. retail sales and a ton of bank earnings. lisa, what stood out for you this week? lisa: the week is not over.

we still have