manus: morning, morning. is daybreak europe. a mixed monday for equities. coronavirus concern takes center stage. global infections hit a record. the united states warns russia of consequences if alexey

navalny dies. allies say he is in critical condition. the world's biggest football club announces plans for a breakaway that could shakeup the beautiful game. 9:00 a.m. in the difc. this market is trying to grapple with justifying why yields collapsed back to 1.5 last week. it is the global spike in covid cases. in india, the new variant, perhaps part of the justification for the rallies and the bond market -- the rally in the bond market. or is it that we have passed through inflation psychosis? you know i love that phrase. have we passed through the moment? good morning. annmarie: it is just astonishing what is happening in the bond market after this solid data on all fronts.

what took my interest is what the former morgan stanley, now at the -- his own report, talking about the fact that what could move the bond market now? things we are not likely to see anytime soon. manus: velasquez said you possibly get paper talks in jim. -- june. bank of america says bonds could move to 1.4. the other side of this is take your opportunity, short the market in terms of their call on the bond markets. annmarie: it's going to be very interesting what's going on. as you say in terms of covid cases rising, we have heard from joe biden's chief medical advisor dr. anthony fauci saying the united states is in somewhat of a precarious position.

a seven-day average of more than 60,000 new infections per day. he also weighed in on what is going on with the j&j shot. >> if we don't have a resumption in some form by friday, a decision almost certainly will be made by friday. i don't anticipate they are going to stretch it longer. annmarie: dr. anthony fauci on the prospects of when we see that vaccine back into the market. let's look where we trade this monday. there's going to be no fed speak this week in terms of yields. they are in a blackout period. s&p 500 softer. friday another record high. we are getting tired of saying that. asian equities higher, up by almost 0.2% on the main index. china, japanese shares all agree. we have not spoken about

bitcoin. this is from friday's close into monday morning, down almost 8%. what a wild weekend it was, but no regrets. in hindsight, it was inevitable. manus: kathy woods lumped up on coinbase. that is volatility personified. the head of global market strategy at and it takes investment managers with us. we see this symbiotic relationship between bonds and equities. a rallies and the equity market. -- a rally in the equity market. will it hold? good morning. >> it certainly seems that way for the time being. as you were saying earlier in the show, the question is what is driving yields lower? is the question that this

inflation fear has peaked for now, or that the fed is going to be dovish for longer, which is what we expected for a long time? is it fear about the pandemic? it is probably a combination of all those. i would think for the next couple of months, inflation is going to be higher, but not worrisome. we know vaccination is moving forward and is going to increase. we also know it is going to be more complicated in the emerging markets than some of the developed markets. the fed has continued to reiterate it is not moving. it is unlikely to change that view before june, possibly even later. a few months of data watching, but probably a stabilization of yields. i imagine equity markets can continue to move higher. annmarie: with all the strong economic data we saw out of the united states, but then the rally in the bond market, does

that mean the data was priced in? >> to stomach sent, yes. -- some extent, yes. the stimulus coupled with the last stimulus trump got through in december that will most forgot about as we moved into the transition to biden, we knew the economy was going to need to rebound very strongly. vaccination had been going better than expected. retail sales and other data points continue to prove stronger than consumer sentiment is improving. at this point a lot of it was priced in i believe by the bond market. a lot of spending is already priced in. inflation expectations started to stabilize because we knew this was going to happen. we know q2 inflation data is going to be higher than the norm , is going to have headline numbers that are scarier, but the core is going to hold. more decent levels even if it is

above 2%. the q2 picture was pretty much expected. manus: i was drawn to paul donovan at ubs. a fantastic line. it is unwise to -- the u.s. consumer. i'm not saying anyone out there has had a hedonistic life in any way. what an encapsulation of the u.s. consumer -- how do play that? >> we are looking at the rotation into cyclicals. we have been saying don't bet against the u.s. consumer. even when the situation was tougher, a lot of the u.s. consumption data held up better than i expected. a lot of the stimulus to help that, a lot of cash saved up by households, we know on benefits and others were extremely

generous and that was necessary. the u.s. consumer just continues to move forward. in that sense despite the fact yields are stabilizing, we think the reopening is not entirely played out and cyclical sectors should take the lead over the coming weeks and months. annmarie: he says hedonism, i say hedonism. we will talk more about that. esty dwek stays with us. your first word news. >> a group of the world's richest football clubs including man u and rail madrid have announced plans for a european breakaway league. it would be an alternative for the champions league with a roster of some of the biggest names. national leagues are heading back saying those who take part could be banned from domestic competition and the world cup.

the u.s. is morning rush of consequences if alexey navalny dies. he is in the third week of a hunger strike. allies say he is in critical condition. he was imprisoned for breaking parole after going to germany to recover from a near fatal poisoning that he and the west blame on the kremlin. russia denies involvement. the u.k. government is bracing for more fallout from a scandal. the controversy initially centered on former prime minister david cameron on behalf of the knuckle asks company. it is a that has evolved into accusations of a revolving door between government and business. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. manus: thank you.

coming up on the show, the showdown to succeed angela merkel reaching the turning point as one candidate gains crucial backing. this is bloomberg. ♪

annmarie: let's quickly check on what is going on with euro-dollar. a resurgence of euro strength. the ecb on thursday, many saying christine lagarde is going to sound more optimistic. goldman revising their forecast from 121. what do you think, esty?

more for the euro upside? >> it depends on your investment horizon. after the recent drop, we have priced in some of the worst news . the slow vaccination, the data that is disappointing, that should ease over the coming months. i have trouble seeing the euro strengthen on european reopening because everyone expects it, right? we know vaccination is set to pick up in the second quarter. there should be more reopening. eu recovery fund should start disbursing funds and support growth. the catalyst for stronger euro is tougher for me to see is a context where the dollar should continue to hold up with better growth, more stimulus, and higher carry. foreign investors are starting to shift a bit more into treasuries, supporting the dollar as well.

manus: one of the pieces of data we chewed over was the chinese growth data, up 18%. if i look at european stocks, they have to to a certain extent vicariously lives off the china growth story. do you think there is any risk of china plateauing, or do you still believe europe lives on with the growth story in china? >> that is one of the questions for europe, as it is for a lot of the emerging-market equities. for europe, you have this chinese growth. we have seen chinese manufacturing has rebounded strongly what was lacking a little bit, which is interesting to say with 18% growth in the first quarter, but where it was lacking somewhat was consumption. we still need a little bit more to come through from the consumer in china. we have seen credit growth started to ease off a little

bit. we will see what the bank of china has to say later this week, and if it does feel like it is taking its foot off the accelerator a little bit, it could be something of a headwind for europe. generally speaking it is manufacturing and exports continue to do well in china, that should help into european equity markets. annmarie: on the political side, we are going to have an update from berlin on the future of the csu, cdu partnership. are there economic risks from this? >> not at this point. there are a couple of scenarios for the german elections that have a higher probability than others, having something of a cdu, csu coalition, looking at the numbers today, seems

relatively likely. that would be a continuation of some of the policies we have seen so far. we know angela merkel is going to do everything she can to get vaccination increasing and to get the economy rallying or rebounding into the election, but i think as soon as we know who the candidates are going to be, that should be helpful. from a purely economic perspective, i don't see big risk. manus: the other major market move has been around the crypto space. coinbase exploding in value. then the implosion in bitcoin yesterday. there is some real propulsion or reassessment of the crypto space. has it seeped into your consciousness? are you concerned about a drop in bitcoin?

>> we don't have crypto in our portfolios. that does not mean we don't get questioned about it from clients. the volatility across the crypto space is well known and having this drop should not be surprising, especially given the size of the rallies we have seen across this space. whether it is some people shifting from the more equity based from the crypto base or not, it is a question of time horizon and where we are looking at it. the more we hear about it, the more it does appear to become mainstream and the more we think people will want to hold some. i am not an expert in crypto. there are questions of governance in of how central banks will react, question of what is actually -- there is a discussion of whether it is taking over something of an inflation hedge where gold has

the lead in the past. plenty of questions your main to be answered. these types of swings are just inevitable. manus: i am glad i did not lump in part of the pension fund or the crypto space last week. -- or crypto space last week. ok. the battle royale is heating up for angela merkel's job and it seems to be reaching the final stages. a week after declaring candidacy, support is piling up for the bavarian state premier. he gained backing from a key conservative group. agee cantrell's tracking the election from berlin. where does the cdu csu bloc go from here? >> they missed the self-imposed

deadline of friday and when they try to come to an agreement this weekend, they did not seem to come to fruition. now we have the meeting today. they don't come to a decision today, they will have to throw that to the party factions in -- the parliamentary faction on tuesday. if that happens, it is looking bad for the cdu leader. annmarie: so the fresh blood is the clear frontrunner, would you say? >> yes, it is clear he did better in the polls, however there are old hands in the cdu like angela merkel sold finance minister who have caution people going by polls alone as opposed to leadership within the party. annmarie: we are looking forward

to your updates throughout the day annmarie: just ahead, the first non-swiss chairman of credit suisse as he leaves the top job at lloyd's. don't miss our exclusive interview. that is next with francine lacqua. ♪

>> i thought i would like to do something different after 10 years and three strategy plans at large. i have been in different countries for the last 28 years. portugal, brazil, the u.k. previously. it is good for companies to have fresh perspectives and it is

good for people to have new challenges. you should continually try to find new challenges, try to improve. from september onward -- and when the credit suisse opportunity came, i thought it was really interesting. it is a chairman role, so i think it builds on my capabilities. it is a very international bank. my background is very international as well. i have not worked in those segments for the last 15 years, but i have worked a lot in many of those segments. switzerland is a great country. i am looking to work together with the board to make it better and better.

one should always try to create a great team sharing the same culture with diversity of thoughts so you can really weigh the pros and cons. once you decide direction, you should go relentlessly in that direction which is what creates competitive advantage. manus: the incoming credit suisse chair soleimani -- credit share antonio horta-osorio. i would not a speck making less. -- expect anything less. his language really puts in focus what's going to happen with the asset management business.

>> the interview happened before we knew about arche ghosts. we were talking about greensboro. he wanted to focus on his tenure at lloyd's because it is difficult to know when he will do when he becomes chairman at credit suisse. this is a bank that has gone through financial calamity because of the double whammy of archegos and greensill. he was very cautious, he would not tell us much about what he will do what credit suisse. but to say he was excited. we spent a lot of time talking about his track record at lloyd's. the longest standing chief executive within the company. he took a lot of risks, cut a lot of jobs. i don't know how difficult it is to seen -- you want to be able to give the same blueprint at

credit suisse. he is a chairman and he is not in charge. suddenly he is in charge of credit suisse with a different structure. annmarie: following the track record, he says he is what credit suisse needs. what from his employment at lloyd's could he bring to credit suisse? what can he get done? >> it was interesting to listen to david haro. he says mr. antonio horta-osorio keeps his promises and when you speak to david hero he says he is very precise. there is this question about capital, how do they raise capital? there are people we know would be interested in asset management. the other thing they could do is decide to have some kind of merger and acquisition.

otherwise, have someone external . the conversation about de-risking's these banks that are so much smaller in europe, the investment banks trying to compete with the americans. the only way to do that is to take on risk. annmarie: thank you for joining us. that interview, we will be playing at throughout the entire day. a big move as he is the first non-swiss banker in that role. carmakers grapple with a shortage of microchips. we speak to the ceo of porsche china from the shanghai auto show. ♪

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♪ annmarie: good morning. from bloomberg european headquarters, 6:30 in london, i'm annmarie hordern with manus cranny live from dubai. this is daybreak europe and here is what you need to know. it's a mixed monday for equities as coronavirus concerns take center stage. global infections hit a weekly record. united states once russia of consequences of alexey navalny dies. allies say he's in critical

condition. and the world's biggest football clubs announced plans for a breakaway league that could shake the very foundations of the beautiful game. good morning. what a monday morning it is. a slew of economic data yesterday, and what is so perplexing about the market right now is the rally in the treasury market. what could potentially unhinge this? could it be a pop in inflation, potentially a hawkish vet? that's not going to come anytime soon. potentially covid and geopolitical narrative is back in play with the treasury market. manus: absolutely. i think the implosion the biggest one-week move since august of next -- last year. could japanese buyers shift the dial up that much? did the shorties really get sweet? or was there something much more prophetic about rolling over on inflation expectations? and i think geopolitics thrown

in their and covid, those are justifiable reasons to take you to 1.5. use the drawdown on yields two reshore the market. -- to we short the market. annmarie: we could see 1.2%, manus, potentially recalibration for those without we would be up at least 2% by the summer. ir'a coin debate -- it's going to be incredibly interesting to see. this week, we don't have a ton of economic data, nothing substantial. and the fed is in a blackout about. so, what is it going to be -- a blackout periods. so, what is it going to be that moves this? manus: huge trade. so, there's a big spread that was sold. that will be the equivalent of a 20 basis point rise in yields. joe biden's chief of staff, the medical advisor dr. fauci, says

the united states is in a precarious position with a seven day average of more than 60,000 infections per day. he also weighed in on the future of the j&j shot. let's take a listen. >> i would be very surprised, margaret, if we don't have a resumption in some form by friday. a decision almost certainly will be made by friday. i don't really anticipate that they're going to want to stretch it out a bit longer. manus: ok, we're going to talk about vaccines and shots in perpetual. to the markets, another 5% from where they work. 4400 is where we can go. the warnings shot come hard and fast in regards to alexey navalny. geopolitics could be the unsettling angst in markets. asia flat. the of a stays one for fort -- b of a stays 1.4.

bitcoin, look at that, down 8%. we dropped by 15% yesterday. this is volatility. you are seeing a reappraisal of the bitcoin risk. look, we all got a little bit carried away. so, let's talk about something else exactly. let's talk about others. "the fast and the furious," and the big auto show.kicks off today -- show kicks off today. the auto market and beijing's green push. let's get live to shanghai. the first, let's sit -- but first, let's see industry leaders. >> the whole industry is. -- is affected. the capex is too low. >> the issues with chips, this is a short-term issue and we'll work through it. >> once you get these chips, you

have to decide. you can look at your profit margins, and put them into the vehicles where you have the best margins and the tightest supply. so, it's going to be chaotic and challenging, but i think we can navigate through it, still being able to hit our retail targets for this year. >> actually, we've been impacted since the end of last year. but the impact is into big. around 10% isn't t -- isn't too big. around 10% in sales. >> we had disruption in the first quarter. we are now talking about what the recovery scenario could look like with our suppliers. manus: let's get to the shanghai auto show. tom mackenzie is standing by. tom a super important guest for us. good morning. tom: good morning. thank you. very pleased to say i'm joined with the china ceo. this is the most important

market, the chinese market. we've seen those sales numbers. is that momentum going to be sustained for the second half of this year? >> actually, if we look back to 2020, we were able to deliver 90,000 cars to customers. we were even able to collect about $98,000 -- 98,000 orders last year. already in the first quarter, again, we saw that the demand of chinese customers is higher than the supply that we are actually having. so, i'm looking very confidently into the results of 2021. tom: can i push you a little on your forecast for deliveries for 2021? can you give us a ballpark figure? >> it's difficult to say at this moment, not only because the demand is quite high, but we all know that the pandemic outside of china is still going on. and we don't know how this will

impact our business or, let's say, the production we have in germany. we know that transport capacities are quite restrictive. and we know will production is doing the utmost in order to support suppliers with the cars needed. but i would definitely think we would be able to have another record year, beyond the 90,000, maybe a little bit into the 100 thousands. tom: and when we spoke to you last year, you said the key driver of the momentum you're seeing here is that people with wealth within china's borders are spending on porsche. when and if china reopens its borders, and we have no timeframe at this point, is that a potential headwind for sales? >> in the meantime, we are trying to use as much of the situation we're in right now in order to accumulate. i believe this helps us to

cultivate the car culture in china. we can see, especially the two-door sports cars, like our 9/11 or 718 are becoming very. popular here in the market -- very popular here in the market. chinese customers are upgrading consumptions, going into more luxurious brands. together with the increased demand on two-door sports cars, i would help that we would be able to continue this growth path. tom: what is the demand? that matches globally 9/11 sales, which surprised many. what is it like in the chinese market? >> we have to introduce it last year, right in april, so we have been launching the most exclusive versions here in china in april last year. and only by december, we had the entry version available in china. that's why in china, we only

delivered 1,440 cars to chinese customers for the whole of 2020. now in the first quarter, as we have the entry version available, we have delivered 1700 cars to china, outperforming last year's results. and we are steadily increasing our customer base. leasing 75% of our china customers -- we've seen 75% of our china customers are new to the brand. tom: auto is the cash cow for the vw group. you are the most important market. when you pick up the phone, what are you saying they should be prioritizing that investment? what do you want to see them focus on? >> first of all, i'm not saying everybody within porsche and the group is appreciating the performance the chinese market is delivering. we see our job in helping porsche to continue the growth path. when i pick up the phone, i tried to explain that we have a

totally different customer base in china than the rest of the world. the customers are much more younger. they are more female. and technology lays an important -- plays an important role. we're investing in innovation and digitalization in our cars and services. and i feel like it's been very well heard and people are catering for that. tom: your views on the semiconductor shortage, the global shortage impacted a number of brands around the world. what has the impact been on porsche? >> thankfully until now, we didn't have much of an impact. our colleagues in germany have been able to kind of leverage and level it out so that we got served with all the cars that we needed until now. it is an issue and its increasing issue, and i trust to my colleagues in germany they will continue work on leveraging the supply chains that they have.

and we are not a volume manufacturer, so maybe it is easier for us to adjust for semiconductors. tom: what are the specifics, in terms of measures put in place to mitigate the impact? >> we're working in the ambience of the whole volkswagen group. and the volkswagen group is then flying between the different brands and the different factories that supply semiconductors. as we don't have a high volume, quite an exclusive volume, it's easier to satisfy the demand that we are having. tom: it's difficult not to talk about china without talking geopolitics. we have the european union putting sanctions on china a few years ago -- few weeks ago. fortunately, brands have not been impacted by this. we have seen foreign brands boycotted. how concerned are you that your brand, and other european brands, could be the victim of boycotts?

are there measures in place to make sure you mitigate the impact? >> percival, i think what -- first of all, i think we are a company trying to fulfill dreams of customers. and these are universal dreams. we want to concentrate on this and not too much on politics. this is a different playing level for porsche as we import the cars into china. we don't want to be into this. i believe the most important thing is that the countries are continuing to talk to each other, opening up an understanding, the views of the culture and the different market were different political system. building up walls, building up things that exclude others has, in the past, never shown a good result. so i would always hope that we are being continuously talking to each other, trying to change views and understanding, and by

doing so, mitigating. tom: last one on competition before i let you go. which brand keeps you up at night in the chinese market? >> well, first of all, we are a small car company and we like to be challenged. so, we love the sporty competition. we are looking very much into how different manufacturers are competing and what kind of products they're bringing. i'm actually sleeping very well. i do think about a lot how different brands are positioning. we see how well tesla is performing in this market and we appreciate everything that has been done in order to open up the auto industry for electric cars. but i also look very much into the chinese competitors, especially those into electric cars. they're putting a lot of innovation into their cars. it is something we are trying to understand what they are doing and see what is in for us and what we can learn about

requirements from chinese customers brought to the market by chinese brands. tom: thank you very much indeed, tesla still a competitor, had a very good first quarter. i'm glad that you're sleeping well. looking for a potential record year. annmarie: certainly, i'm glad someone is. no wonder why, though. we're seeing more demand than the company can supply in the first quarter, very good numbers for them. bloomberg's tom mackenzie, thank you for joining us. let's get a recap now with your first word news, annabelle droulers in hong kong. good morning. annabelle: hey, annmarie. oxford university starting a study to reinfected to recovered from covid-19. researchers think it could shed light on how to be more effective against the vaccine. it will look at different types of immunity and how long

protection against the disease last. the u.s. and china say that it's committed to cooperating on climate change and implementing the paris agreement. the joint statement comes amid growing tensions between the two countries on issues raising -- ranging from trait to human rights abuses. u.s. president joe biden is issuing a conference this week. the dow reports president xi will join. the u.s. is reporting -- warning russia of consequences if alexey navalny dies. he's in the third week of a hunger strike. allies say he's in a critical condition and could die within days. he was imprisoned for breaking parole rules after going to germany. that was to recover from a near fatal poisoning that he and the west blame on the kremlin. russia denies any involvement. global news, 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg.

annmarie, manus? annmarie: thanks so much. annabelle droulers in hong kong. we also want to bring you a bloomberg special report. the european investment bank is the world's largest multilateral lender. it distributes billions of euros for development projects like social cohesion and gender equality. but behind the shiny exterior, a new bloomberg investigation reveals a darker story. our reporting uncovered accusations of sexual harassment, bullying, and discrimination. you can read more from this bloomberg story on bluebird.com and on the terminal -- bloomberg.com and on the terminal. manus: coming up on the show, the u.s. warns consequences for russia if kremlin critic latina valley dies in custody -- alexey navalny dies in custody. this is bloomberg. ♪

annmarie: good morning, 648 time in the city of london. i'm annmarie hordern. manus cranny joins in dubai. the u.s. warns there will be consequences of russian opposition leader alexey navalny dies in prison. is currently in his third week of a hunger strike, with allies morning he could die in days. take a listen to what u.s. national security told cnn. >> we have communicated to the russian government what happens to mr. navalny in their custody is the responsibility and they will be held accountable by the international community. in terms of the specific measures that we would undertake, we are looking at a variety of different cost that we would impose. and i'm not going to telegraph that publicly, but we communicated there will be consequences if mr. novelli dies. -- mr. another round the dies. -- mr. navalny dies. annmarie: you have heard from

mr. sullivan they are communicating with russia. what next could the biden administration lay on in terms of sanctions against russia? >> good morning. well, they already imposed a series of sanctions last week, partly in response to the poisoning of mr. navalny last year. it targeted russian sovereign debt and bandit u.s. financial institutions from buying sovereign debt directly. one potential additional punishment would be to rule out purchases in the secondary market and beyond that, i think it's quite limited -- there's not much that could have a big impact on russia and its economy in the medium-term that would and also cause damage to the wider international economy, which i think the u.s. has been trying to avoid thus far. manus: it's interesting that

you've got renaissance talking that the sanctions levied so far have been soft. talk to us about the reaction from the european side. those are the u.s. words. we're hearing from the german foreign minister. how strong was his response to the novelli situation? tony: -- no valley situation -- navalny situation? tony: to return to russia fully conscious that the russian authorities were likely to arrest him. so, angela merkel was raising the question of never the -- navalny with putin. the european union reiterated its call for mr. navalny's release. and they're pressing for him to be given access to proper medical treatment, which is what

he's demanded all along and mikey he went on hunger strike. -- why he went on hunger strike. manus: indeed, a level of grave concern. tony, thank you for being with us. coming up on the show, it is the world's biggest football clubs. what are they doing? they're breaking away. we'll discuss. this is bloomberg. ♪

manus: this is bloomberg "daybreak europe." i'm manus cranny with annmarie hordern in london hq. the world's biggest football club announced plans for a breakaway league that could shake the foundations of the beautiful game. let's get context. david halley adjoins us. what is the european super league and why is so much of the football world against it?

david: hi, good morning. the european super league is a plan that's been in motion for several months, in fact, several years really. and it's a plan to take 15 of the world's top clubs, historically or by capacity of league which form -- from which they can never be relegated. and the absence of relegation is the thing that has caused it to promote such consternation on european fans who have been brought up on a system of promotion and relegation, or a club goes up and down the league depending on their sporting prowess integrity. the league -- one team is ninth in the premier league. it would not qualify for the champions league this season

under the current rules. annmarie: and david, it's not just fans. we're looking at a tweet from boris johnson on this. how is the project going to be financed, very briefly? david: right, jp morgan is backing the financing. and it's financed on future revenues from television. so, they have been able to raise de oojected income from tv rights. annmarie: all right, thank you so much for joining us, david hellier. thank you. that's all the time we have for today, but manus, i'm sure this is going to be a topic for the rest of the week. there are a lot of people angry about this idea of a super league. by the way, the team i support would be moving into that league. manus: we're going to keep an eye on manchester united, the coded names, of course the dutch -- keep an eye on the ruble.

we've been tracking the u.s.-russia angst over navalny. will the ruble run lower? good to be here on a monday. annmarie: president putin will speak on wednesday. that does it for us. the european open up next. this is bloomberg. ♪ wanna help kids get their homework done?

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♪ anna: good morning. welcome to bloomberg markets, the european open. mark cudmore joins me in singapore. the cash trade is less than an hour away. here are your top headlines. global coronavirus infections hit a weekly record despite rising vaccination campaigns. india sensex pumps