>> things appear to be to perfect right now. >> fundamentals will trump fear. fundamentals will be incredibly strong. >> a political establishment today is much more willing and in many cases invites higher inflation. >> everything we follow suggests every bit of inflation is being passed through. >> it will be caught by surprise because it is following the wrong model. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance," with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jon: from new york city for our audience curled white -- worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance." alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. coming into monday, we declined by nine points, around .2%. it is a no drama market morning.

tom: in the last hour, you nailed it where you said is a european week and americans have to sit still and wait for europe to speak. the news to me is europe finally with better pandemic information. jon: the outlook is better because vaccinations have improved. we have had eight straight weeks of gains -- seven straight weeks of gains, i will correct myself. that is phenomenal. the euro is through 1.20. tom: we look at the big banks, i believe apple -- it will be drip, drip, drip coca-cola reaffirming their organic revenue growth at 6%. that is a big number. that would be 4% maybe without powell, fiscal stimulus, this

boom economy. jon: first quarter organic revenue, plus 6%. lisa: that is exactly where i was going to go. the estimate being so much lower than the actual figure. it raises the question -- are analysts overestimating or underestimating the growth in earnings we will see, and so far it seems like underestimating. markets might be following a different tune. jon: i think this is important. you bring up an important dynamic. there is a difference between what economists are expecting and what markets -- the function has changed over the last several months. basically tracking the forecast here at bloomberg on the terminal. 4, 5, 6, it is rallying in this market. when did it really accelerate?

start of november, the outlook for vaccinations improved. we started to get the efficacy ratings. we talked about emergency use authorization. this market was off to the races, well ahead of the group of economists the got together. maybe it is a five handle, maybe six, maybe seven. tom: on inflation, an important essay, sticky inflation. if you look at the so-called sticky inflation, may be fear is overdone. jon: let's turn to the -- equities look like this on the s&p 500. we will find some time for it. we are down 10 on the s&p, down .25%. to see that data, wasn't it a surprise, to move in the direction it did.

yields lower, euro dollar has a 1.20 handle. the countdown to christine lagarde is coming thursday. lisa: especially because said officials are all quiet in a blackout period ahead of their next meeting. i don't know if i want to go back there. meeting to approve a new plan. a union of european football associations for the are coming together to approve a new plan to try to make the teams play more games and to split some of the money among the teams. this is an outside observer's analysis of the system. that is why we are talking about the breaking away of the super league that wants more money for itself. i am sure everyone will analyze it way better than i did. senator joe manchin of west virginia will be meeting with

coal mining union leaders. how do you push a plan for a better carbon emission footprint in the u.s. while supporting the jobs so essential to the west virginia and economy. 1:15 pm, president joe biden meeting with congress members. joe manchin would like to see biden take a more bipartisan approach before he signs on. how much is this in good faith? can you believe we are talking about the $800 billion stimulus and a skinny plan. jon: how the story has changed. some people reach out to me and say, why do people speak so fast on "bloomberg surveillance"? the reason lisa spoke so quickly is if she leaves a gap of air, what you think tom does? he will start talking about

football. [laughter] lisa: well done. jon: let's talk about the fear of inflation. >> can i speak slowly? jon: leave a gap, expect to get stamped all over. i was asking you about the irrational fear of inflation. not football. daniel: the cpa data came out and it was very interesting. inflation only went up .1%. putting aside all of the year over your data, which is meaningless, given the fact that prices fell so much during the pandemic, month over month data will be interesting. looking at core, we are seeing a considerable ability of goods to be imported from china and elsewhere without forcing prices

up. that is because of the capacity of most countries. you look at the cost of freight containers, the shortage of freight containers because we are importing so much. the big question going forward is, are you going to see core goods actually inflate, or kind of stay where they are? is this inflation issue really due to exercises in saying housing and shelter sector? if you look at lodging, 6.6% inflation in that sector because hotels were operating at zero for a long period of time. this will be a complex question. it is difficult to imagine that there is going to be considerable pressure on goods prices given the elasticity in prices from imported goods. tom: the behavior -- post

pandemic and with the boom economy we have, what does a new age of oversupply look like? daniel: the big question with regard to that is whether or not we can trap u.s. spending here in united states. the biggest chance to be able to do that is move forward with this infrastructure bill. we just flew a helicopter on mars a couple hours ago. i have to think we can repair or replace infrastructure in the united states. if we can actually do that, government procurement gives us opportunity to channel considerable volume to u.s. manufacturers and actually enhance capital investment by those manufacturers. that will reinflate the economy, in a positive way because it will reinflate growth and wages. you will see distortions, the

piece this morning out of the white house was very informative. average wages will go down as you recompose the labor force and bring back some of those low wage, low our jobs. the big test going forward is going to become a can we move from this enormously high concentration of low-wage jobs into higher wage jobs as a result of this plan. tom: you mentioned one of our great academics, just a fabulous life in academics and spanning all of our globalism, as well. over the weekend, i saw a sum of all of our fears. where does the optimism come from? daniel: i am so glad you mentioned him, he was a great mentor to me in the 1970's. he went onto one of the greatest careers ever and was an eternal

optimist. the beauty of his life was understanding what this nation could actually deliver. he did that through educational philanthropy. right now, we are in a wonderful position to move forward with a huge pivot from what has been roughly 40 years of abandoning government as a force in the economy. and re-channeling the ability of the fiscal agent to move forward with spending and channel that spending for things that are useful to the commonwealth of all americans and all states. jon: we appreciate your time this morning. managing partner. turn to the market briefly, some pronounced dollar weakness. no real theme, apart from dollar weakness.

a euro that is stronger. tom: dxy, the blended currency, the bloomberg dollar index, we are outside two standard deviations of weakness. these are substantial moves. jon: a 91 handle on the dollar index. lisa: this is a weak for europe. the potential surprise could be to the upside. i will say, increasing discussion of cryptocurrencies by digital assets from the central banks themselves, leading to more talks of the digital dollar. i am really watching that this week. jon: we will talk about that with david riley. he will be joining us later. from new york city this morning, good morning to you all,

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am a jon ferro. 1.5747. dollar weakness. in the equity market, we are down nine points in the s&p 500, down from all-time highs by .2%. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." ♪ ritika: first word news, i am ritika gupta. authorities decided to move alexey navalny after allies warned that his health was failing. the u.s. threatened the kremlin with unspecified consequences if he dies. alexey navalny has been on a hunger strike since the end of march. closing arguments are set for today and the murder trial of derek chauvin. he is a white former police officer accused of killing a black man, george floyd.

there is anxiety over the potential for violent protests. china says it has no desire to topple the dollar as the world's main reserve currency. it is said it is creating images of currency for domestic use. the ceo of gamestop is stepping down. george sherman -- a persistent slump. gamestop has become a favorite of reddit day traders, sending the stock soaring several fold. this could be the biggest shakeup in professional soccer in decades print the world's richest soccer clubs are planning a european breakaway league in august read manchester united and real madrid would be taking part.

global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i know we have penciled in 6% or 7% growth, but under outcome-based policy, we want to see that. >> in bullish on the rebound but in no we have a long way to go. >> there is no textbook for this. >> i don't want to be so reactive. >> it is too early to talk about changing monetary policy why we are in the pandemic. biden co. we committed to working together to take on challenges.

the south china sea. as well as north korea to ensure a future of a free and open. japan and the united states are two strong democracies in the region and are committed to advancing our shared values, including human rights and the rule of law. jon: there has been a huge push forward from this administration on the foreign policy front. that was the president of the united states, joe biden. from new york city this morning, good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. futures, off 8%, 9% on the s&p 500. the euro-dollar, -- in the bond market, standdown moves the last week. yields in, yields unchanged. tom: a new weakness moments ago,

to breach 91 would be a huge deal, to breach 90, down to an 89 level would be unimaginable. a briefing from emily wilkins, our bloomberg government reporter. the biden discussion we heard on friday, and the zeitgeist, it seems to be a resurgent state department. led by the biden administration and may be moving on from the trump years, as well. do you perceive washington is on a foreign policy mission and state department like before or is it something new? emily: with the state department, there was a big message sent when president biden asked him to head the secretary of state. there is a sense the two would be working closely. he would speak to individuals

with the authority of president biden because the two of them are so closely together. the state department has gone through a lot of changes with the previous administration. tom: let me ask a dumb question -- dumb question monday, lisa killed football -- not the red skins, english soccer, the other football. jon: you are not sucking me into this one. tom: are there people at the state department, are there people there, or is it empty? emily: the biden administration did run into some roadblocks getting key individuals confirmed. it has been almost 100 days at this point. there have been a lot of people in the state department.

it is up and running and given authority that might not have been there with the previous administration. there has been a huge focus print look at what happened in afghanistan, the japanese prime minister. president biden will meet with world leaders to discuss climate change on april 22. president biden decides to take on china with strength from allies. lisa: what is more important, the state department or the health department? are there discussions about shipping out vaccines to the rest of the world? emily: there is a question this point about the vaccine diplomacy and what that looks like, particularly as the u.s. sees a lot of its population becomes vaccinated, and realizes it will have a number of vaccines. we have not heard a lot of details from the biden administration about what it

will look like, but they are conscientious about the fact that in order to get truly back to normal, have people travel, do business abroad, to get back to the point where we need to be, we need to have other countries vaccinated, as well. lisa: a discussion based on foreign policy discussion, the idea u.s. is trying to reclaim leadership in the world after president trump did lose some clout with respect to other global leaders, there is a question about whether biden can do it. is there popular support for that in washington, d.c.? emily: i think the attitude in d.c. is the u.s. needs to make sure americans are vaccinated first, that we are in a good spot before we give vaccines to other countries. we are now at a point where vaccines, anyone above the age of 16 is able to get a vaccine. we will look to see how many americans get them, what that

looks like over the next couple of months. at that point, the conversation will pivot 2 -- how do we help our allies, who needs the most assistance and where do we send these extra vaccine doses? jon: there is a blog post from the white house, we had a similar thing from jared bernstein, talking about the effects between the wage growth in america. how appointed is this? emily: the objective is, as you see this large bill come together, this $2.25 trillion infrastructure bill, you will see republican say there is concern about inflation, deficit, this is the white house preempting a little bit, those criticisms, by trying to get out in front and discuss with the american people why they are

looking at the amount they are looking at and why it will be a good thing for the country and not lead to crazy high inflation. jon: emily wilkins down in d.c., good to see you. there is an important outreach going on here from the administration to help explain some of the complicated economic data we might see. with the wage growth, it is important to talk about the compositional effects. we had a surge -- you have to reverse engineer that potentially over the next several months. tom: i don't think it is any different from the first days of the biden administration when there were press releases at 5:00 a.m. we are getting used to the information flow versus the previous administration. i have a huge amount of mail over this football thing in england. it just moves forward. do those smaller teams get

pushed aside -- we make jokes about newcastle -- the teams just below these teams, what did they do? jon: the teams just below want to earn the right to compete in premier competition, which is right now the champions league. this is an issue for battalion foot -- italian football, spanish football. for the future of european football, the big names want more control, that is what it has been about the last 20 years. our editor-in-chief emailed you and talked about this -- it is starting negotiations or a continuation of negotiations about getting more control. maybe this time -- this is not a bluff. tom: i have four more questions,

lisa has seven more questions. [laughter] lisa: look at those markets. [laughter] jon: yield. tom: thank you. lisa: go faster. jon: this is bloomberg. ♪

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jonathan: record highs coming off of the back of four straight games. seven straight weeks in europe. equities down around 10 points. .3% on the nasdaq. .3% on the russell. down .7%. deep breaths. get to the bond market. yields unchanged at 1.5782. here is the story for me, positive upside to price, where does it come from? maybe it comes from europe. bnp paribas talking about may be a german 10-year ending the year at zero.

the other push back, you mentioned it early this morning, -50 basis points is still the target at hsbc. if we get a normalization of the rate curve in germany, i wonder what the u.s. curve will start looking like? something to consider. euro-dollar shaping up as follows this morning. 1.20 handle. dollar weakness the story through g10. this has been the hardest one to call through 2021. everyone has been whipsawed through it. we came in looking for dollar weakness, we got dollar strength. now we are talking about dollar weakness again. jonathan: [no audio] [no audio] tom: is anyone ever right on foreign-exchange? jonathan: want to do football while we have some time? lisa: romain is here.

romaine: remember, in fx, you don't have to be right, just the other guy needs to be wrong. not a whole lot on the economic front. a little bit of a quiet period ahead as we wait for the fed meeting next week. you had that crash in texas involving that tesla model three, that at least according to authorities, nobody was in the driver's seat, two fatalities and that. gamestop apparently going to get a new ceo. once they find a new one, they will get rid of the old one. investors seem to like that. roaring kitty doubling down on his bet. balaton taking a leg down after u.s. regulators looking into some of those deaths and injuries involving its treadmill product.

let's take a look at some of the other names. corning moving higher, 46,.25. a lot of the apple suppliers are railing this morning ahead of that event tuesday. they are expected to announce the new slate of ipads and computers. coinbase update on the day. quite the ride over the weekend with regard to bitcoin. hopping around that 53,000 level. and there is that manchester united, just for you, jon. if you want to get in, get in right now. tom: how do they trade as a publicly traded company? when they win, do they go up? jonathan: if you get more money, it goes up. if you qualify for the champions league and you were not expected to qualify, you go up. lisa: did you just give it a

market call, go into european football? jonathan: not sure this is for the broader audience. just giving tom some ideas. romaine: i don't make any calls here. tom: do you go along manu, short juve? jonathan: romain, thank you. tom: more english football this afternoon in the program. jonathan: he is right, look at the price action. this is about the extra money these clubs will get. this is part of the story. this is the story. jonathan: we spoke with our european football expert john micklethwait who says it is a gambit. michael kushma is with morgan stanley.

somebody with perspective. over the weekend, i saw a massive we rationalization worry. what is the outcome when you see so many people worrying about our collective set of worries? michael: it is quite interesting. globally, the number of positive cases are rising, india has problems. turkey has issues. the united states has had the largest vaccine rollout outside a few small countries. that is one reason why the u.s. is doing better now. things are looking up and up, except for bonds, which are looking down. jonathan: equity markets is one of our focus is, but you work in fixed income. we have seen this yield a lower move, price up, you'll down. is it treatable? michael: we still think longer

term the trend yield is higher, i'm not sure how much higher. we were talking to percent longer-term rate for 10 year treasuries. in the short-term, we had positive news on the economy. a surge of positivity in terms of the data in march, and the market got ahead of itself in terms of predicting when the fed would move. at one point, predicting a rate hike in 2022. the fed has, i think successfully, pushed back against that logic where it is being pushed back again. if the market continues to trade short and the fed continues to double down on its no rate hikes until 2023 or later than that, then the treasury market has room to stay firm. yields staying on the low side. jonathan: can you talk about the relationship between the trade

market and yields right now? the team at london talking about this, bnp paribas looking at 10-year in germany. what would that mean for the treasury market? michael: another reason why treasuries have done so well in the last few weeks, yields are exceptionally high in the u.s. compared to the rest of the world. with the vaccine rollout heading better in europe, lockdowns presumably ending in spring, europe will catch up. the rise in 10-year treasuries has been a strength. in order to get u.s. yields higher, european yields have to go higher first in order to catch up a bit with the u.s. if you are looking for higher u.s. yields, you have to look for a higher european yield first. jonathan: what if i'm looking for income, where am i going? michael: right now the place to

go is in credit markets, mortgage backed securities, and or corporate great credit, high yield credit. in a world of stability, are we entering a period like goldilocks? it is likely china will be growing slower than the u.s. for the first half of this year. we don't want the boom to strong such that central banks need to push rates higher than sooner otherwise. a slowdown in china relative to other markets also softens the search, the impact of the surge of spending in the u.s., which lengthens the business cycle, which lengthens the probability that credit cycles will stay low. lisa: we are seeing a post credit crisis tight. is there any sign of froth?

is this all making sense to you based on where we are? michael: it makes sense to me, if you look at the history of credit spreads. they are at the tight end of the range. depending on the security company or rating, they are near their all-time lows, which we saw in the 2000's or mid-1990's. but we are in a unique economic situation. when you see credit spreads widening and you see significant underperformance in high yield or ig, we are near the end of the business cycle and the fed raises rates. historically that is what you see. right now, it is clear the fed is not raising rates until the end of 2023. jonathan: as always, good to hear from you. michael kushma, morgan stanley fixed income cio. tom: after the gloom of the

weekend, -.81 to -.79. it is what you see with coca-cola and harley-davidson. a discrete, smaller story related to motorcycles around the world and america. i'm sorry, when you shift your revenue estimate from 22% up to 32.5%, that dynamic gets your attention. jonathan: raising the outlook on a better 2021. how often have you seen that? lisa: i am struggling. i know that you'll find me for being a debbie downer but i'm struggling to allow companies piling on debt for low cost, keeping them alive for longer. what does it do down the line? have we prolonged a credit default cycle? is this something that we will feel at a later date?

is the fed a part of the fundamentals in terms of swooping in and saving credit markets, if everything goes south? jonathan: let's think about where the dollar has gone so far. we mentioned last week the amount that has gone to refinancing here to date. 72% of high-yield issuance has gone to refinancing. these balance sheets probably look better, not worse, pushing out the maturity of the debt they bring into market. lisa: you have to look at where it was being refinanced. a lot of it was from the peak of the pandemic. if they are refinancing at lower rates, they still have more debt now than in the pandemic. we are in a less credit worthiness, but look at where we are in terms of valuation. jonathan: their broader question you are touching on is the tolerance to higher rates in a world of more debt. tom: what is this, cartesian

theory from the 17th century? it is the pendulum of moral hazard that we are dealing with. it is the pendulum of moral hazard. tom: i am doing my best. jonathan: san diego is crushing it today. jonathan: you have not mentioned the red sox all morning. . tom: the red sox are doing better than the yankees. jonathan: new york? give us a song. tom: i am thinking radio. lisa: we are being told to go. jonathan: new york looking beautiful. tom: finally, spring. padres. ritika: i'm ritika gupta with bloomberg first word news.

after policy reversals and years of inaction, the u.s. will have a wide credibility gap to overcome. the summit begins this thursday. a case at the u.s. supreme court will pit the biden administration against democratic lawmakers and progressive allies. the administration will defend the government policy from blocking permanent residence applications 4000 living illegally in the u.s. for years. it involves the temporary protective status program. despite the rollout of vaccines, global coronavirus infections have hit a new weekly record. 5.2 million people infected over the past seven days, a 12% increase from the previous week. the worst outbreaks are coming from countries who are not equipped to deal with it. citigroup will be setting up new

trading operations in china. the bank will soon name a ceo for the business. the goal is to get the operation running in 18 months. global news 24 hours a day, on-air, and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we are about a half a percent of global wealth and crypto. that is going to be 4% in the

next few years. this economy will only grow. jonathan: michael nova gratz there. good morning, alongside with tom keene and lisa abramovitz payment i'm jonathan ferro. on the s&p 500, all-time highs, four straight weeks of gains. we are down about a quarter of 1% this monday. in the bond market, the yield unchanged at 1.58. the fx market, dollar weakness, euro-dollar, 1.2033. in the commodity market, 63 handle on wti. down about .2%. crypto and crypto assets getting hammered through the weekend has got to be the story. tom: i take issue with hammered. certainly made news over the

weekend. the chart is ugly but i would say contained within the home on the range. michael mcglone has been brilliant in providing us analysis. i don't want to talk about 63,000, 53000 and that. the fact is, dogecoin was invented by two ibm engineers. it is almost a tulip blulb. what does this signal to the rest of the legitimate crypto market? michael: dogecoin is just fun. tom: how many people will lose money by just having fun? michael: if you put in a couple hundred dollars, dear your friends at the bar, and that is what happens, but there is a massive amount of liquidity in the system. it is something that people like

to play with. we don't care about this, so let's gamble. tom: so if tott is playing ac milan in the super league, is there anything different from betting on dogecoin? michael: it has never happened before, we can do it from right here. tom: the only thing that is 24/7 is the hate mail that we will get from this. lisa: the only difference between you betting on soccer and dogecoin is that you are not awake all the time. i take tom's point, to say it was a plunger of the crypto as it was a mischaracterization. but it did indicate a rapid cooling off of froth that built last week. is this a tipping point in your view? michael: no. it is one of those things that i used to love in the trading

pits. you speak to a journalist and you ask, why is the market down today? the market adjustment too far, too fast. a little bit of a correction. the key support i see in bitcoin is 50,000. institutional bids seem to be creeping higher around 50,000. here we are back at 56, 57. it is noise within a bullet trend. i don't think i can get bearish on bitcoin until we get past this period of disseminating u.s. etf's. lisa: in terms of regulation, that was one of the many explanations for the swoon. rumors of a u.s. treasury action on money laundering using the crypto asset. i wonder if true regulatory action could torpedo the value of bitcoin in a way that perhaps has not been priced in? michael: bitcoin was through that, the silk road. the fed cut the perpetrators right away.

you can track every transaction. if you are a criminal, use a privacy coin. don't use bitcoin because you'll be caught. even if you use a mixer to mix of your addresses, they will catch you. it is such a small part of total trading now but there are privacy coins. the key regulation that we will see is in digital dollars which is right now the most widely traded currency on the planet. that is where you'll see more regulation. jonathan: what is the story in china about a digital yuan? michael: it's a matter of time for them to do that, a matter of time for all of us. china has to do it from a central bank point, but the u.s. doesn't have to. a lot of the volume and tether in digital dollars as been because people are hitting their stops.

but it is happening organically in a global scale. the world wants to trade this digital reserve currency and that it wants to invest in this digital reserve asset, bitcoin. jonathan: mike mcglone, we appreciate it. i think the three of you were teaming up against me, the wrong characterization. we would add 7% in sunday's session. lisa: let me set the record straight. i actually think it was a big decline. i didn't take issue with that, but point being, it didn't indicate the end of the world. i think it was fair. jonathan: down 7.5% on sunday. tom: mike was difficult. jonathan: i always like the bowls when you call them up and say, what do you think? jonathan: does lionel messi want

a super league? these stars --do they want a super league? jonathan: i'm not trying to get into the business of telling you what i think people are thinking. what is interesting, the big players have not come out to make any big statement on this yet. that could be interesting if the likes of fifa and uefa standby and don't let them play in international football. there is a certain amount of pride, they want to play for their countries. i wonder what that would mean if they go ahead with this breakaway league and they are not allowed to participate in these leaks and represent their country. tom: it is not fair but i will go there anywhere. do you think that this will get solved quickly? jonathan: no idea, we've been talking about this for 20 years. jp morgan is apparently the bank underwriting this effort. tom: are they pushing it or just

underwriting it? jonathan: you pick your words. lisa: back to what we were talking about with crypto assets. jonathan: you want to go back to crypto? lisa: you have more to say? there was a good note from morgan stanley over the weekend where he says we don't associate disruption with central banks but a major move could disrupt the financial system. the idea that a digital dollar if created by the government could attract money as a digital store of well and create diversions is in the system. jonathan: what i thought was interesting was the whole ban cash argument. he talked about the argument that if you impose negative interest rates, it could be far more effective because you cannot store the cash anywhere, and you'd be punished for holding the money. we can bring in a couple of ideas, but why not?

coming up, david riley. tom: we will ask him about the pendulum of dogecoin. lisa: do we have another hour? jonathan: this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i think we can have an employment and productivity boom. >> fundamentals are going to be incredibly strong over the remainder of the year. >> everything we follow suggest every bit of inflation is being passed through and then some. >> there is a worry we are getting into bubble territory, but it is so essential that we got there. >> it is really following the wrong model. >> this is bloomberg surveillance tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramovitz. tom: