>> i think we can have an employment and productivity boom. >> fundamentals are going to be incredibly strong over the remainder of the year. >> everything we follow suggest every bit of inflation is being passed through and then some. >> there is a worry we are getting into bubble territory, but it is so essential that we got there. >> it is really following the wrong model. >> this is bloomberg surveillance tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramovitz. tom: good morning, everyone.

it is a european week. we are focused on america, the soccer uproar and the rest of it, but it is a week for lagarde. jonathan: interesting calls out there. euro-dollar, 1.25. bnp looking for a positive yield on the german 10 by the end of the year. around -25 basis points right now. it is an inflection point. the progress that's been so much better from where we were. tom: the inflection point, the debate over the weekend about gdp growth, inflation, it's all about the obvious boom economy. jonathan: capturing that with the bond market. this market has been positioned for better growth. we started to see these numbers. how does the market react?

yields lower. is this just a consolidation or a turning point? consolidation probably feels like the right word after the move we have seen in the last few months. tom: lisa, what did you observe in your reading this weekend? lisa: we are in a number of tipping points. the bond market, the idea that we are entering goldilocks once more, that we will get these low yields for longer, it is sustaining some of the equity and credit rally. how sustainable is that? that comes after last week's conversations with fixed income managers who said we would fade this rally. we see yields going higher. if that is the case, how sustainable is some of the rallies and other risk asking? tom: liv-ex, 17.12. not too much going on with a

10-year. 1.5%. i have to go to the football before we bring in david riley. the key line i read over the weekend was -- a cynical project, is european football nothing more than an asset bubble of these asset inflated times? jonathan: we were asking for a market call, but i won't give that to you. ultimately they do want to find more money after a difficult 12 months. this is the conclusion of 20 years of negotiations with uefa. when we talk about a breakaway league, leaving behind their domestic competitions, their proposals are different. you can say it is disingenuous, but ultimately this is a challenge to the champions league. we want to maintain participation in our domestic competitions. this will take place midweek. the pushback from the national organizations, european

organizations, is that you won't be able to participate in your domestic league if you go forward with this. this is high-stakes. do the european big players have their bluff called? if this is indeed a bluff? this morning, i have to say, it feels different. tom: i think of minor-league baseball here in america. you think of robert redford filming in the minor-league stadium. it brings you up in the fabric of all of this in europe. we went to one of our guests who was in love with the smaller leagues. david riley is with us. you are watford fc. they are not in the super league. david: they are a long way, and i'm sure they will never get an invite, but for the true fans, it is the local clubs that matter. watford is our family's

long-standing club of support. tom: i love hearing you talk authentically to all of these people across europe about these lesser teams. how do they fear away from lei cester, everton, these teams that we know? jonathan: tv money is the big issue. if the big teams are not participating with the smaller clubs, you have to imagine the tv money will be smaller. that is the tragedy, they will lose money and these clubs will suffer even more so. it will be difficult for them. but the people who are virtue signaling this morning -- i have seen it from former for all players -- is ridiculous. what do you think the premier league was all about when they establish that? that was about the big teams it's all dating and establishing power. i am skeptical of both sides of the debate right now.

it has always been a business for a long time. yes, they serve the communities they represent. it is a sport born out of the working class in the united kingdom, but that is not what it is going now, is not what it has been for a long time. david, we could talk about this for a long time, but people want to hear what you have to say on the market. that rally off of the back of higher than inspected inflation, better retail sales, what did you make of that? david: i think the rally is such that it is time to start thinking about taking the other side. as you said earlier, a period of consolidation, we have moved a long way in a short amount of time in terms of higher treasury yields, the way the front end of the curve had moved as well. what we learn from last week is the strong growth and recovery in the united states supported

by fiscal stimulus is fully in the price. for rates to break meaningfully higher from here, we are back to the inflation discussion. we will have to see evidence that inflation will prove stickier than is currently assumed. i don't think we will see that for at least a couple months. expecting to be range bound, but as treasury yields on the 10-year are down, certainly if they hit 1.50, it pays to be on the others of that because i think they will end up about 2% by years end. lisa: what about european, in particular, german notes will go lower or higher? david: i think the direction of travel is to go higher in europe.

the curve is very flat within europe. there is probably too much pessimism baked into the european story. that is starting to unwind as we see an acceleration in the vaccines. it is a little bit early to be doing a victory lap on the outlook over europe. there really are not any inflation pressures in terms of europe. it will be a pretty difficult second quarter. despite the acceleration of vaccine rollouts, we don't know if we will get a european summer season. that matters for a lot of countries in europe. jonathan: we want to bring you some news and then get your reaction to something important. barclays was the lead underwriter on a moody's deal to build two prisons in alabama. they came under pressure from advocacy groups. barclays has pulled out of this deal to build those two prisons

after that pressure from advocacy groups. you are in the credit market even in these esg issues are affecting the banks who are part of these deals, and they affect the investors who buy into these deals. it is no longer about income or a credit assessment, it's about what the money will be used for. how have you changed your approach in the last couple of years? david: i think you are right to highlight that. esg has become a very powerful theme and investors who trust us with their capital, demanding that we incorporate esg into the investment process. it is something that we have integrated very structurally. we have esg analysts sitting with our portfolio managers, others on the investment floor. i think the direction of travel is certainly there.

what that story highlights is some of the adjustments that have to be made. you have to take guidance to some extent from your investors. it is also clear those companies with stronger and improving esg scores or rankings are actually going to be rewarded in this market with a lower cost of capital. those with more challenged esg profiles will suffer. from a pure investment point of view, it is not something you can ignore or dismiss. jonathan: not anymore. good to catch up with you, david riley. would love your take on this, tom. barclays was the lead underwriter on a deal to build two prisons in alabama. after pressure from advocacy groups, they have pulled out of that deal. tom: there is a clear understanding -- and we are not experts on this.

experts say there is a desperate need to improve the prisons across any number of states, including alabama. the question is how you go about it. through a public direct advocacy or a private company. that seems to be the point. what is really going on, we have seen over the last number of weeks, a new social issue for investors. jonathan: the approach has to change, you have no choice. lisa: it's interesting to see the bifurcation between a number of different politicians who are perhaps on the sidelines on issues and corporate executives taking a stand, turning on its head the common theme of the way things work. i have to say, the political activism of c suite executives since the pandemic has only been escalating. jonathan: it has to be the

bottom line. if you were not seeing the pushback from the community, would you see this? lisa: you are cynical, but it is true. jonathan: that is not a judgment about whether what they are doing is right or wrong, but just the motivation behind it. coming up, from new york city, more to come. equity futures down 11 on the s&p 500. this is bloomberg surveillance. ♪ ritika: i'm ritika gupta with bloomberg first word news. closing arguments are set today in the case of derek chauvin, accused of killing george floyd. the killing of another black man by police in a minneapolis suburb has increasing anxiety over the potential for violent protests. the ceo of gamestop is stepping down. george sherman is ending his 10

year failed performance targets. gamestop has been a favorite of day traders, sending the price up, but the company missed sales and profit estimates in the latest quarter. coca-cola reported first-quarter sales that beat estimates. they sought early signs of recovery and demand, especially in areas of higher rates of coronavirus vaccinations. coke has stabilize from the slump blamed on the pandemic. harley davidson reported better than expected first-quarter profit. the company expects revenue at its most segmented area to grow faster than forecast. in russia, authorities decided to move alexey navalny to a prison hospital, after allies warned his health was failing.

they have threatened the kremlin with unspecified consequences if he dies. navalny has been on a hunger strike since the end of march. global news 24 hours a day, on-air, and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we have communicated to the russian government that what happens to mr. navalny in their custody is their responsibility,

and they will be held accountable by the international community. in terms of the specific measures we would take, we are looking at a variety of different cost that we would impose. i will not telegraph that now publicly. we have communicated that there will be consequences if mr. navalny dies. jonathan: the foreign policy effort from this administration have been pretty pointed. from new york city this morning, good morning. alongside tom keene, lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. we pulled back from all-time highs on the s&p 500. off by a quarter of 1%. yields are higher by 1.5035 on the 10-year. euro-dollar, 12033. cable with a 1.30 handle. juventus football club in milan,

up by 14%. investors in these football clubs for this breakaway tournament, they like what they hear this morning. tom: we say it is a european week. it will be a european week for the future of football as well. the news flow has been extraordinary, i can barely talk. jonathan: i love how sincere you were when you delivered that news. the coach of totts has been let go. tom: i have really been anticipating -- eswar prasad is with us, from cornell. he is definitive on china with his tour of duty at the imf, and we are thrilled that the professor could join us this morning. but i have all sorts of books on

china right now. the book by george magnus. in all of this, are amateurs like me simplifying -- over simple fine? give me a window into the complexities of this modern china? eswar: china certainly want to drive the debate on a multilateral front. the hopes before the pandemic hit was to pitch itself as the great globalize or, in contrast to the previous administration, which was against globalization, but now things are shifting. there is pushback from china, including from some of its close trading partners, including australia. it looks like multilateralism is slowly making its way back to washington. whether the world will buy washington's move after the last few years means to be seen.

certainly, china will be an important player in terms of driving the rules in international trade and finance, and whether the u.s. will try to fill the void it has left over the last few years, will be the key play over the next few years. jonathan: let's talk about the voice that has been more pronounced in the last few years, in the asia region. the news about establishing a partnership with asian countries have trade, and the same way that europe does. the previous administration left that behind. you see that reestablishing that ndc, effort to put a stronger foothold within asia to attract those companies -- countries, in a way that they have not been able to? eswar: there was a pivot toward asia and then away from asia and the rest of the world. now we will see a more gradual pivot back toward asia. that is where a lot of the action is.

the biden administration has made it clear, while it is willing to talk about multilateralism, it will take a tough line against china. the baseline of issues that it came into, that will remain the baseline. if anything, they will bring a larger set of issues into the discussion. recent discussions with japanese leadership points out that the u.s. is trying to strategically bring its allies around. their problem for countries in asia is whether they can really trust the u.s. they did trust the u.s. earlier, even though they had close relationships with china, both trade and political, and they are concerned about whether they can really trust u.s. to watch their backs. what the administration does in terms of talks and action over the next few years will be really crucial. lisa: i want to dovetail this conversation with a book he wrote about digital currencies.

the idea that china is launching a digital yuan. how much does this give china an economic upperhand in terms of dominance? eswar: thank you for mentioning that. the digital yuan is crucial for domestic purposes in china. the chinese government is concerned about other countries dominating the payment space payment they want to keep the central bank money relevant in china, but this will rival -- will this bible the dollars dominance? not really. what matters is a currencies role in international payments, how deep a country's financial markets are, how much investors trust it, including the institutional framework, checks and balances. china doesn't quite have that. certainly, a digital yuan, in addition to their cross-border

payment system which can talk with other systems, will help the yuan become a more important international currency, but a larger reserve currency, that will take a lot more. jonathan: we hope that you can come back once that book is published. eswar prasad of cornell university, senior professor of trade policy. tom, a question for you from jim bianco. did the totts fire ted lasso? tom: we went to our reporting. lasso was shortlisted for the spurs. jonathan: people tuning in this morning will not know if we are joking or serious on this story. you enjoy ted lasso? tom: it is outstanding. it is on disney. apple tv.

there we go. apple did it. it is beautifully gentle. there are so many jokes in it that i don't get. it is a lot like "little britain" that was out a few years ago. they get going with the accents. when the players in particular are talking, i cannot understand it. jonathan: what accent is it? tom: i don't know, northern british. jonathan: classic. where i am from. tom: is it e-verton or everton? lisa: he just got the mute button. jonathan: lisa is not happy, i can tell you that. coming up, michael shaoul. everton. leicester.

that northern british accent. euro-dollar, 1.2034. yields, 1.58.

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jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, in the equity market we decline on the s&p 500 down 10 points. on the nasdaq down around .4%. the russell up .8%. after four straight weeks of gains on the s&p 500 it is a small fullback -- is a small pullback. bond market, 1.5852. tom screaming go to cash, go to cash. talking about the football thing. your yield on the 10 year, 1.5852. give me another 30 seconds. thank you.

in the european bond market, here is the year to date gain. on the german tenure year, up -- on the german 10 year yield, up 20 basis points. up 34 basis points on the german tenure yield. -23 basis points year-to-date. in germany we have seen the move. now there's conversation about how far we can push this. yields pushing towards zero. can we get back to the football story? tom: i was going to play it. that is what we do here. this is so important. what you have to understand is lisa, jon, and i do not know where we are going. we have done that going back 20 years. that is not news. i was going to do a conversation with michael shaoul and follow-up with football. we will turn that on its head because jamie dimon is in the

transaction. what is the significance, jonathan, of the american financier blowing up european football? jonathan: you need to tell me the headlines and that i will read them. tom: can we get one of those big banner screens? jp morgan bets before $.8 billion u.s. as clubs sign binding you. jonathan: we talked about this, jp morgan underwriting this effort. that is why that is different this time around. this is been a threat and it is so much more real this morning because the financing is lined up, the companies are ready to go. that is the difference. tom: we will get jon and his entourage back to his podium. jp morgan financing this transaction. we are thrilled michael shaoul joins us with market field as it management. his great affection for one of

those super league teams, manchester united. i want to bring this in of the ark of the asset boom we are in. is the super leaning -- the super league of european football and other symbol of the global financial is asian of the times -- the global financialization of the time. michael: one example. it has accelerated. the covid period has crystallized the needs of the largest clubs to make sure they can continue to increase their share of whatever revenue is available. jp morgan was the bank that financed the leveraged buyout of manchester united in 2005, which was a transaction that nobody thought could get done. jp morgan has had a hand in the

commercialization of english football back to that period of time. i would look at that as one of the key moments which got us to this sad story today. jonathan: we have been familiar with this conversation for two decades and this feels very different. as i read through these headlines. jp morgan is underwriting this, but the clubs themselves have signed to a binding deal that was key to jp morgan's backing. that is according to our sources. this is not just a threat anymore. this feels real. jonathan: -- michael: it does feel real. it is possible some kind of political intervention will make it harder. you could have a windfall tax put on the clubs or something of that nature. i am sure any binding agreement has some sort of force majeure clause within it. this is a genuine attempt to

recast who owns sport. this is a more radical version of the premier league itself, which was an attempt of the larger clubs to take control of english football away from the league. in this case will be european clubs taking control of the sport away from the european league. this feels like a definite attempt to change things. it is possible this particular proposal gets diverted, but i will only get diverted by another massive shift of revenue and control towards the largest clubs within europe. this changes coming. jonathan: let's talk about what could jeopardize this. there has been a push from the domestically to save you do this you will not be able to participate in domestic competition. the biggest threat is the threat that happens over the players that participate, which is from fifa and could mean the players

do not participate in the national game and represent their country. as you look through sports can you think of a precedent and whether that could stop this from happening? michael: it did happen in cricket. cricket is a very different game that was not heavily commercialized in 1970. in australia tv mogul did create his own australian cricket league and did get some of the best global players to play in that league. for a period of time they did not play. it lasted a few years. was fairly successful. some did not join the league. everything merged together again. at this point in time the players are so much more commercialized. the agents themselves are big businesses within themselves. my guess is there's a lot of behind the scenes conversations about this. most of the best players would

prioritize playing in the best club football over international football. i do not think it is universal, but i think enough of them would that all that would happen if you band them from the national game is the international game would become a backwater and you end up with a two to your sport, club together with international and above it the super pan-european league, which would be garnering the best slots, the best ratings, the best sponsorship. that is what the world would look like. jonathan: let's pick up on the tv slots point. i am looking forward to hearing from paul sweeney later on this morning about what he has to say about broadcasters. they have signed multiyear contracts. in the league's the premier year in the u.k. over that matter in spain, i know one was just signed in italy.

are you telling me broadcasters will stick to those deals and not try to come back and say if you do not have manchester united or real madrid, what am i playing for? tom: we will have to see. we welcome all of you on the radio and television. jp morgan will finance the changing of english football and all of european football as well. lisa? lisa: the question is the idea of u.s. banks moving into financing european football. is this a rejiggering of the entire financing of a major european sport? michael, what is your view in terms of european sports as a potential investment opportunity and u.s. banks having a increasingly heavy hand in financing it? michael: the story of football has been that as revenues increase, so much of the money ends up leaving the game to players and agents. this would be similar to what

has happened when the value of tv rights has exploded. yes the clubs generate more revenue. manned up spending greatly -- may end up spending greatly on player and agent compensation and transfer fees, which is a european football phenomenon. do some of the super clubs managed to continue to increase their value? probably. i think at the end of the day, european clubs probably close the gap between their values and the values of the largest. it would not make european football more valuable than the nfl for the nba. -- for the nba. it would close -- or the nba. it would close the gap one way or the other. jonathan: i think the real tragedy of this, if there is

one, is what happens to the smaller clubs, the smaller teams they get left behind and do not get to compete or try to get access to compete in europe's largest sport on europe's biggest stage. tom: this is important. stephen from hong kong emails and says you've not mentioned westham. i believe they are not a super league team. how do we keep west him -- westham and others motivated to be part of elite football? michael: you cannot. you can create a second-tier competition. the english game used to be more unified until the premier league came along. as they say, it does because a two tier sport. there would be enough interest outside of this super league to

maintain something below it. it would be second tier. retaining young players would be much more difficult. i do not think you would see the elimination of the second tier, but it would be a much dreary are place. on a day-to-day basis, it can still be enjoyable. there is a sadness to it. at the moment, any club over a period of time with the right management can theoretically become a successful club at the highest level. jonathan: fantastic to get your thoughts on this. a really important change for the world's biggest sport. michael shall, market field

asset management. tom: moving forward, there'll be a response. jonathan: you sounded so authentic for the last three hours. lisa: that is sarcasm, everyone. tom: thank you for mentioning westham. jonathan: coming up on the open, jared water q8 -- jared woodard. thank you for tolerating tom and indulging me. this is bloomberg. ritika: president biden wants to prove to the world the u.s. has rejoined the fight against climate change. the promised cuts in greenhouse gas emissions are ambitious but achievable.

the u.s. will have a wide credibility gap to overcome. it's national climate summit begins thursday. a change -- a case at the u.s. supreme court will pick the biden demonstration against democratic lawmakers and progressive allies. the administration will defend the government's policy of blocking permanent residency applications for thousands of immigrants who've been living legally in the u.s. for years. it involves protected status program for immigrants from countries in crisis. a new poll thinks -- says half of new york photos -- half of new york voters think andrew cuomo should remain. more than half of those polls think the democrat should not run for reelection next year. his standard has sunk to the lowest point since 2011. shares of peloton are lower. consumers warned to stop using the company's treadmill if there are young children or pets at home. the consumer product safety

commission is investigating debts related to the machine -- deaths related to the machine. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i would be very surprised if we do not have a resumption in some form by friday.

a decision will almost certainly be made by friday. i do not anticipate they will want to stretch it out longer. tom: dr. fauci on face the nation. hugely successful on bloomberg radio. all of a sudden we have -- enduring success for bloomberg. face the nation and dr. fauci. not only the conversation of the day on vaccination and covid, but this is the most serious conversation as all of us attend the end of a pandemic. ofer levy is with boston's children's hospital. that barely describes his work in pediatrics and vaccinations and precision vaccinations for children. he is an fda advisory panel member as well. dr. levy, thank you for joining us. is it safe for an eight-year-old

to get the first shot in the second shot? dr. levy: thank you for that. we are blessed in the united states to have three vaccines under emergency use authorization. the johnson & johnson paused. the youngest groups that can currently receive these vaccines are 16-year-old for the pfizer product. as of this moment no one under the age of 16 years is eligible to receive a vaccine. their ongoing clinical trials to assess safety and efficacy of the coronavirus vaccines in those younger than 16 years of age. to my view, that is very important. tom: comes up this medical phrase "titer." maybe is simply the dosage allowed. do we assume it is the same vaccine for children, just a

smaller dosage? dr. levy: no. kids are not just little adults. from the day we are born to the day we die the only constant thing in life is change. our immune system is no different. when you look at a baby through an elderly individual, the immune system keeps evolving. we cannot assume a vaccine is safe and effective in one age group that is safe and effective in another age group, and often the dose may be different and the ability of a vaccine to impact anybody can be different. lisa: how much higher is the bar in terms of side effects for children given the fact they do not present with the same degree of illness on average? dr. levy: thank you for that. we view it as very important to remember the future of our children when considering this pandemic. there are multiple reasons to want to have vaccines against covid for kids. although it is uncommon, severe

probate does occur in children in the form of a multi-symptom inflammatory syndrome. children become affected and excrete the virus and can affect parents or teachers or other children. because childhood detection is a symptomatically, -- is asymptomatic -- a majority vaccines in the world are given to kids. the majority of the market is a pediatric market and the infrastructure across the world is a pediatric infrastructure. if you want to get a high percentage of the population immunized around the globe, pediatric immunization is often the path. we view this as a very important component of the fight against the pandemic. lisa: we want to dovetail this conversation with the johnson & johnson issue. it is a delicate topic. the idea of j&j vaccine was paused because of six known cases of this rare thrombosis

out of 7 million inoculations given. is the bar that much higher for unusual developments even if they are marginal and rare when you are inoculating a population not as at risk. i'm thinking about a population -- about a popular -- about a possible recommendation by friday that the j&j vaccination can go to people over the age of 50, but not younger. dr. levy: vaccines are something you give to healthy people, so they have to be safe. there is a big emphasis on safety. that continues even after an authorization. there are passive and active systems to monitor, surveillance for safety. if there's a signal, even a small signal, that was the case with j&j, it needs to be pursued. although the pause is awkward, in my view it is the right decision. in the long run that will lead to confidence that the federal authorities are taking safety seriously.

when you're developing a vaccine product for kids, safety comes first. that is why their rigorous clinical trials -- that is why there are rigorous trials. when the sponsors of pfizer believe they have the right dated to indicate that, they will submit to the fda and the fda will take a look at the data. the documents are made publicly available to any american. we have a good and transparent process. tom: thank you so much. ofer levy with us. we look forward to another conversation soon. he is at boston's children's hospital. what an eventful day. we spent way too much on this english football thing. jp morgan in with the note. we still have the shock and awe of price up, yield down over the next 10 or so days. lisa: though today you are seeing a bit of stabilization. it does feel like we are at an

inflection point. people are exhausted. they are going on vacation. they are getting on airplanes again. there is a reset. how much can inflation pickup and how much does that affect risk appetite? there is a complete disagreement in wall street on this point. tom: i go back to the simplistic thing we started at three hours ago which was wage dynamics. i need to see wage inflation of some type, a lift in salary and benefits. michael spence, i thought was brilliant on it. lisa: and the note from the white house today. the idea they are talking about how we may see wage deflation because of the averages in the way the data was collected. a lot of lower wage workers exited the workforce en masse last year or a year ago. you got the increase in average wages. tom: jon from coventry emails in

, says tommy did a worse job than lisa on football talk. lisa: aw. in fairness i did not really try. [laughter] at least you tried. you put your hat in the ring. your tots will still be in the super league. tom: i think ted lasso is on the short list. he is an american. what are you watching this week in the economic data and bond data? look at the bond offering from morgan stanley. lisa: the banks have been flooding the market. people think to raise capital due to the tightening in certain restrictions. basically they cannot use their treasury holdings, cannot exempt them from their capital requirements. tom: they are all going back to the trough. on politics, former senior advisor to president obama, valerie jarrett, look for that on bloomberg. futures at negative eight, now futures -50.

the vix still well under 20. bitcoin in the vicinity of 57,000. this is bloomberg radio and television. ♪

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♪ jonathan: it is a football free

zone. from york city for our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. 30 minutes away from the opening bell with equity futures pulling back. down .2%. investors desensitized by a series of all-time highs. >> equity markets continue to move higher. the equity market will continue to rally. >> this market will go a lot higher. >> equity markets are discounting machine. >> the recovery is rocksolid. >> we have seen a robust recovery. >> complacency getting extreme. >> the equity market, you take a look at valuations there. >> the valuation seem a bit frothy today. >> some of the indices are all-time high. >> just keeps coming your >> it is a great mark -- it just keeps coming. >>