♪♪ ♪♪ john: from our middle east headquarters in dubai, i'm manus cranny. the top stories setting your markets. direction list, greater global economic integration. and warns against decoupling in a speech. c.e.u. leader wins a lifeline in

his fight to succeed angela merkel in germany. and a $7 billion financing package to overall the champions league and stop the breakaway division. it's 6:00 a.m. in london, 9:00 a.m., good day to you, day three of the discussions to the world, my favorite word is that moment he offered magnamity on covid-19. he warned that a cold war could turn hot if it was left like a pot on monitored. good morning, emery. emery: good morning, manus, not much surprise in what he said in

the sense that it's a similar, very colorful language, the veiled criticism ises against mostly the united states, for me, it was the point where he wants allies to avoid bossing each others around. he didn't mention names, but he did use those terms bossing others around. he called for greater global economic integration and warning against the decoupling and let's listen to what he had to say. >> the future of the world should be decided by all countries working together. we must not let the rules set by one or a few countries be imposed on others or allow unilateralism pursued by certain companies to set the pace for the whole world. annmarie: joining us to look inside at this speech is

bloomberg's chief asia economic correspondent, did you find any surprises in this speech? >> not

annmarie: definitely i think veiled cry tees on what is going on with the u.s. efforts. bloomberg's chief asia correspondent. manus, tuesday morning, the markets trade 6:05 in the city of london.

will this hold the brighter future this morning. u.s. 10-year yield back and unchanged, manus, the yen is at the strongest level since early march and the dollar is just breaking through, i believe on the bloomberg dollar index, we're up to the seventh or eighth day of losing streak. so a lot of weakness coming under the u.s.d. manus: that yen tells me something about the proclivity for risk. the c.i.o., great to have you with us. you're struggling to reengage and recommend china cross asset. why? >> china has benefited a lot

from the industrial recovery that we've seen, demand for goods has been very good for china, so that seems to be tapering off as we see the u.s. and possibly europe open up later this year. that demand for goods will taper off and we will see much more demand for services which china has less a part to play. so we think that the industrial recovery that drove china equities, momentum needs to shift from the industrial equity part of the business to domestic consumption and that still isn't there yet. we need to see if it still picks up momentum, but that is what we are looking for to see the next leg in china equity and china assets. we have seen on the fixed income side, a lot of inflows have been driven by the influx inclusion trade. that has now passed us. so china our china assets need

to stand on its own rather than through asset gel investigation. annmarie: china has been pushing for this creation of domestic demand, but how much of china's growth this year is going to be reliant, ashish on asia's recovery and europe's recovery? ashish: a lot of it. there has been an element of the demand of goods that has pushed china recovery higher over the last year and we have seen it in the gdp growth numbers in china. i think what they should look forward to is a domestic engine of growth as you look for consumption of goods to consumption of services. the u.s. will get control of its virus or have a large percentage of its population vaccinated by next month. you look at the pace of vaccinations in europe, we should get that stage in europe by late august, maybe early

september and that means much more consumption of services relative to goods, though i think the caveat there is that we don't have a kind of ptsd sentiment in the consumer's mind and then they are able to go out and take advantage of the services sector much more than they have been until now. manus: i like the fact that talking about the consumer and we don't have ptsd. can we touch on covid. ann marie, we're looking at bonds 150, 155, there is something going on. i look at the covid seven-day caseload around the world, it's about 30%, india four times, it's pair -- parabolic in india, what about the covid risk? ashish: yes, india made some

mistakes loosening restrictions too early, paying the price for it. compared to last year, last year we were in a situation of no vaccines, we did not know when they were coming. we did not have measures to manage cases. while there is a strong second wave in most asian markets, especially india, we are not looking at a situation that is uncertain. we know that as vaccine supplies ramp up, a shortage of medical supplies, too, we know what the cure is. we know what the answer is to ramp up vaccine supplies. as u.s., europe, and japan, most developed markets get their populations vaccinated, by august and september, we should see a significant access in vaccination supply for the rest of the world. india is the vaccine factory of

the world. i think we can look, a good thing that the indian government did yesterday was to provide vast orders, provide them the cash flow to expand capacity. when that is done, vaccine supply ramp up in india and take control of the situation. annmarie: i'm loving your optimism, i probably on the other half, i'm a little bit more concerned, but you start out of your note, ashish, talking about the one hand, the economic data is killing it. on the other hand, we're not out of this deepest economic collapse in history. you have a contrarian view on cash, what is that, should more people be holding on to cash? ashish: that's the unknown asset right now. we are optimistic. in the near term, what we have seen are the markets are optimistic, too, it's not like we have been offered a great upside, if you look at the e.p.s. estimates, they're estimating $177 in earnings for the end of this year, we were at

$128 odd last year, we were at $152 odd in 2019. we are talking about a 16, 17% increase over 2019 s&p earnings. and we haven't even recovered yet, so while we are optimistic over the long term that we should get into a better position than we were in 2019 at some stage, the markets are already pricing it and beyond and in the meantime, you do have rising bond yields. while they do have a bit of a consolidation over the last few weeks, i think the fact is that the u.s. growth and european growth is going to start accelerating and that will drive bond use higher, the support for equities right now apart from earnings, the dependence on earnings is so high that if there is a disappointment, you could see a selloff in equities,

not disastrous selloff in equities, but enough to give investors pause. annmarie: thank you so much. he stays with us this tuesday morning, first a recap to our news with anna bell. >> good morning, the c.e.u. later is hanging on to succeed angela merkel. he may have an edge over the state leader of bavaria did despite the popularity in the polls. he wants to resolve the standoff swiftly. the e.u.'s top diplomat talks about 150,000, the largest buildup ever.

the e.u. said it's a significant incorrespondence from the numbers provided by ukraine. revamping the champions league in a way to stop a new breakaway competition. sources tell us they are in discussions over a 6 billion euro financing package. the news comes a day after 12 of the world's richest football clubs announced a new competition which has been heavily criticized. this is bloomberg. manus. manus: thank you. coming up on the show, the crypto roller coaster is back in action. less than a week of hitting the all time high, bitcoin, the fifth session in a row, cryptocurrency craze we discuss, right here on bloomberg.

>> this is bloomberg day break. bitcoin is lower yet again today heading for the fifth straight session of decline, the largest intraday drop, the largest digital coin plunged as much as 15% on sunday, less than a week, of course, after hitting a record high. a bit of whiplash, ashish is still with us. ashish, i want to get your first initial thoughts on the crypto space. when you see bitcoin go from the record highs and a 15% drop over the weekend when most weekends are closed, is this an asset you want to hold? ashish: bitcoin is doing what every speculator of asset, we look at bitcoin in a very different way compared to the rest of the world. we don't look at bitcoin as a

currency. we look at it as an equity of a new transaction processing network. that gives you a very good framework of providing an intrinsic evaluation. we used to have framework that couple out to an enterprise on what you would call a market cap for the crypto currency universe. our calculations, all should be valued around 1.3 trillion. we use quite aggressive assumptions to value that and 140 trillion over the next 10 years if it's the default transaction. if bitcoin was the only crypto currency in existence, based on that enterprise value, bitcoin should be priced or valued. they need to share the market

cap with other currencies. so i'm not surprised, we're in a market that lacks the understanding of its intr valuation. there is such volatility, people should realize what the valuation of bitcoin, where it comes from, the transaction processing, from the fees from transaction processing and not just talk about it as a currency which i think just disturbs or muddies the water as to what action bitcoin is. manus: the natural thing is, what is the single biggest threat to bitcoin? is it the creation of a central bank, crypto currency? ashish: not really, i think it's a competition between transactions between networks. as long as bitcoin can display that it's transaction processing network is cheaper, it's much more efficient and accessible. i think there is a place for

both currencies and another private transaction posting, we have a number of transaction posts that exist right now. it is not impossible that you can see people being able to transact using central bank even on the block chain. so i'm not seeing it as a competition, but i think the only thing that can fail is the acceptability of this transaction, it needs to be cheap. it needs to be much more accessible than it is now. it is right now expensive and not as excessive to people as it is touted to be. annmarie: ashish, you're sitting in abu dhabi, the anniversary of the first time we ever saw oil on the contract go negative. you have a lot of thoughts about commodities, there are kinks, what are the kinks of this potential super cycle?

ashish: i think the billions have been driven by materials. we understand that there has been a great amount of goods demand, supply chain conflicts and that has driven metals higher. in the near term, a bit too much on the metal side and from here on, if you have to drive commodities higher, you have to be bullish on oil which is the biggest chunk, oil and gold, which are the biggest chunk of the commodities. we have a positive opinion on oil as more and more driving happens, we will see oil demand go up while the supply is still constrained because there has not been enough spent on the

discovery over the last five or six years. we will see demand go higher and oil prices go higher. i think the value is in commodities at the moment. manus: thank you very much, come back and visit us soon, ashish. the battle to succeed angela merkel isn't over yet. a last-minute lifeline, it will go to the line. this is bloomberg.

manus: this is bloomberg baybreak. the fight to take germany's top job isn't over yet as a troubling few days are set to

take place. the c.e.u. leader is reviving his leadership bid winning the backing of his party top committee. let's get to aggie can tral, tracking the election nuances from berlin. does he now have the nomination sewn up? >> he kind of does in a way, the 2/3 majority from the c.d.u. board should really be enough. the thing is, he doesn't seem to have the backing of the party base. it's really a question now of what his rival for the chancellor candidacy will do with this information. yesterday he said that he would be more than willing to respect the decision of the c.d.u. and support laschet should that be their decision. we're seeing how they are

reacting to the decision, he is doing better than him in the polls and take the policy forward into the election because of that. annmarie: i was telling manus, this is the most exciting i have seen german politics ever my entire adult life. how this drownout public spat affecting merkels block before going into the election without her at the helm? >> you make it clear, annmarie, it was without merkel. they need to try and make an election campaign without her at the forefront. and they are still have to be said doing better in the polls compared to the other parties, we're still several months away from the election and they are the most physical party.

we saw their key rivals, the groups come up with their own chance. a young woman who was being compared in some ways to an alternative to the c.d.u. with a centrist option like merkel was. it might be that they see someone like anna as a threat to their own polling. annmarie: aggie, thank you for that. she will be all over the german election. manus, a quick check on where we trade this morning? misdirection going on, u.s. equities coming and asia, a mixed picture, due to some covid concerns especially in india. india, as you say, we're seeing

a parabolic spike there, four times the average that we have seen. we'll dig into some of these numbers shortly. maybe we've seen the lows in bank of america, sure as she goes (woman) i don't want to look like this anymore. (man) what is happening to my body? (woman) why can't i lose weight? (announcer) you may be suffering from insulin resistance. measure your waist. females measuring more than 35 inches and males measuring more than 40 inches may have insulin resistance. to learn how to reverse insulin resistance and lose weight effectively, go online to golo.com. once again, that's golo.com.

annmarie: good morning from bloomberg's european headquarters. this is "daybreak europe.' xi jinping calls for integration and speaks against decoupling. armen lasch at wins a lifeline in his fight to succeed angela

merkel. the race is not over yet. and ufo is said to be into discussions over a 7 billion dollar financing package to overhaul the champions league and stop plans for a breakaway division. lots of action going on and drama when it comes to the football at the moment. the world is really waking up with this tone from xi jinping against decoupling. what stood out to me is telling his other countries, his neighbors and foes to stop bossing others around. veiled critiques especially when i look at the united states. matt: -- manus: he did go after the global movement. the tliv blog goes on to say maybe the things he did not

pronounce on much more deeply, the carbon emissions, no new targets, it goes to the heart of it, which is warning against cold war mentality. he called for economic integration and against other issues, calling on the u.s. and its allies to avoid bossing others around. collects the future of the world should be decided by all countries working together. we must not let the rules set by one or a few countries be imposed on others. or allow unilateralism pursued by certain countries to set the pace for the whole world. manus: let's take a quick snapshot of the world. the relationship between bitcoin and the s&p 500, the correlation

highest since 2017. asian equities lower. india, a spike in covid cases. globally, the seven day average rising, but everyone tells us don't worry. there are vaccines, just not for the whole world all at the same pace. short interest in u.s. equities on the s&p is at the lowest in 17 years. nasdaq stabilizes. bonds have been low. you. should have sold the. one 50's. dollar-yen, you quite like that trade. what have we got? discussions with centrica asset management. a $7 billion financing package to overhaul the champions league and stop plans for a new breakaway division amid plans by some of football's biggest clubs

that threaten to shake the foundations of the beautiful game. some big money change the world's most popular sport years ago and this latest bombshell was nothing more than an inevitability some would say accelerated by the pandemic. this is a big story. maria tadeo is in brussels with the details. good morning. >> the question is whether the counter offer will change the minds of the 12 founding teams. what you are looking at is jp morgan looking to help with the super league project. they would pay the initial financing. this would be a multi-season project. what is key for the founding members of the super league as they would get a welcome bonus. there is a financial incentive on the short-term.

if you move away from the details, what you get is two things. teams are trying to take that tv money more in house, but also de-risk the future operations. you look at more traditional competitions, you need to do well to qualify. there is money on the line. the difference with the super league as the founding teams would have a guaranteed spot. this coming in a difficult season for teams. revenues were 12% down because of the pandemic. that has accelerated things. annmarie: we have heard tons of pushback from politicians to fans. can this actually happen? will the super league go ahead? >> we have had politicians saying they disagree, we have heard fans say they are unhappy, that this is just about the money, not the football.

yesterday the president of real madrid who would be the head of the super league gave a very interesting interview in which he said the reality is we are doing this to save football. we are not in a good financial position and this is the only way to make football more attractive. another thing he said is they want to do this on good terms with you a five. another thing that is interesting here that he did say, real madrid and the other founding teams are looking at the -- would not be kicked out of national league's. you can argue this is a high-stakes poker game. they are going to stay in the competition and potentially get more money out of it. manus: what is at stake for the rest of football? this is pivotal. this is about the beautiful game and the future of that over the

next 10 to 15 years. >> a lot of the pushback is coming from the idea that if you get a super league like this where every week you have a major game between the big teams, looking at the elite teams, we are going to kill off the smaller teams, remove merit away from football, the idea you can escalate to become one of the great ones, i would point to the interview from the chairman of real madrid who says the reality is the nature of football has changed. younger people are not that interested. he also said we have to factor in it is a global audience, not just about the stadiums. the picture here is much bigger. that gives you an insight as to what they are thinking. as i said, more in house by the teams. annmarie: thank you for that

recap. this high-stakes drama. joining us now is dan jones. he says he does not see the economics of the proposed competition is very attractive. if you lose domestic competition, it is wholly negative. you don't think it is about the money. why do you not think this is about the money? >> what i am saying is not that i don't think it is the money. the money i am seeing being talked about around this makes it makes sense. to the point about losing the competition, this taco of five or $6 billion, -- talk of $5 billion or $6 billion, revenue last year was $7 billion. to make this kind of commitment for less than one year revenue is a high-risk strategy. the premier league rulebook is clear. premier league clubs -- if they

play in competition that is not sanctioned, they forfeit their rights in the premier league. if you lose the premier league, this does not compensate for that loss. you are in a worse position. as for the competition itself, people seem to be separating money and football. i don't know how they are making the assumption. competitions have value because people want to watch them, because there is a narrative. it is drama. this does not seem to achieve any of those things. and then talking about making football global, football already is global. you look around, you see these big clubs, people ask where you are from, i am from manchester, they say which team do you support? that is the nature of the game.

the idea these games are going to be broadcast in europe, that they are going out globally, the middle of a weekdays and america, that is going to put the audience on some sort of subscription model. there's a lot of unanswered questions. i am not sure how the economics of it would stand up. manus: what would it take to get let's say the british clubs to get the premier league and breakaway? what you're saying as it is the premier league who could stop this from really crystallizing and becoming whole. >> access for the players to compete in world cups, that

would not be allowed. there's a myriad of things. the idea it is a large concession that this competition would not start in august this year, the idea of getting this up and running, there would be regulatory requirements. as i said, there are questions on the economics, the finances, the regulatory, legal things. this is a story that has been around 25 years. it comes up on a cycle. this has gone further than any of these discussions have gone before and much more publicly. let's see how this actually unfolds. if you are doing market research on new products and you have the

reaction this idea has got, you would probably think again. annmarie: the u.k. is drawing up plans. they said they are going to do whatever it takes to stop this breakaway. what could we see politically from government to try to stop this? >> that is interesting as an unintended consequence of this. there has been a lot of of talk about governments intervening and regulating football, conducting reviews. previously the has never quite happened. i cannot recall ever there being this sort of noise around something like this politically. i think unanimity on anything about football is interesting.

manus: it is so much maligned. who is supporting this and is there a magic number? you said $5 billion is not enough given the annual revenues. who could support this and what is the magic number? >> that is not for me to say. it is for the advocates to come out and explain it and why it works. when i saw the number, i assumed something else -- somebody missed a zero. manus: so you are throwing out $50 billion? >> you have to look at the scale of the game and the number of years has been talked about. as i said, even the covid effect

-- affected season -- the numbers are not in that scale. manus: i know you have to go to bloomberg radio. if anyone wants to hear the additional questions, join dan on bloomberg radio. a doubting thomas, one could say. let's get the first word news. >> the shanghai auto show is underway aiming to showcase the newest car innovations in the world's biggest vehicle market. major themes were electric cars and intelligent driving technology. an automaker predicts rapid expansion in 2023. >> we broke our sales record in the third quarter, typically the quietest season. i believe we will keep the momentum. especially as we start taking orders in the second quarter.

>> the cohead of credit suisse's prime brokerage business are leaving the bank in the wake of a $4.7 billion loss from the implosion of archegos capital management. they will help through mid-may on an orderly transition. the french government has strengthened its grip over -- it has increased its stake to more than three times that of the netherlands. politically sensitive equilibrium has lasted two years. before, france and the netherlands aren't about 14% -- owned about 14%. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. annmarie: just ahead, india has the world's fastest-growing covid caseload.

the country of nearly 1.4 billion people battles rising infections and a health care system under strain. we will get a live report on the latest from mumbai. ♪

manus: it is "daybreak europe." let's get the latest from india, battling the world's fastest-growing covid caseload. the country of nearly 1.4 billion people facing soaring infections, health care system under strain, india reporting a quarter of a million new cases and more than 1700 deaths. let's get to our mumbai bureau chief. thank you for joining us. what is different about this wave of the virus? i have seen worlds like parabolic used.

>> this seems more virulent. india is reporting more than 250,000 new infections every day. there is speculation we might be battling a new mutant variant. india has not sequenced enough to know, but all indications show india might have a so-called double mutant which is more infectious. annmarie: what does this mean for the government? do they have plans to tackle this wave? >> yes. prime minister narendra modi is under fire across the political spectrum because he has been holding massive election rallies. the health care system is reeling. last night we had a flurry of

measures from the government that included allowing states and provinces to secure their own supply of vaccines. anyone over the age of vax -- of 18 can be vaccinated. all of these rules should make it easier for people to get vaccinated. the important caveat is that india is running out of vaccine. we have 70 people we are running out. -- so many people we are running out. manus: between vaccine hesitancy, issues around that, it compounds the issues. how are investors reacting in terms of the currency in the bond market and equities? >> yesterday when we saw a record numbers announced, stockmarkets plunged.

today after we got the news anyone over the age of 18 could be vaccinated, stocks have recovered. india is a stock market could be heading for a technical correction and investors estimate -- sentiment will be fragile. we saw the u.k. impose a travel ban. boris johnson canceled his trip to india. hong kong has impose travel restrictions. it is looking grim. annmarie: bloomberg's mumbai bureau chief. thank you for bringing us this update. just ahead, another shakeup at the top. the executive in charge of the unit behind the archegos blowup leaving credit suisse. ♪ dit suisse. ♪

annmarie: good morning.

it is "daybreak europe." one year ago today, you and i both track oil prices, but wti crude oil prices crashed, went to negative territory. today wti is trading at $63.95. >> it is for the short-term. >> we will not see this again in my lifetime. it is how oversupplied the market is, how weak demand is. >> you could start to see this next year at some point turning to come into balance. north american production is going to be structurally -- >> it is a perfect storm for oil producers. >> an oil patch in this much trouble is not good for the u.s. economy. annmarie: what a year it has been. negative prices, now we are in

$60 range. a thankful tune to those producers. interesting what guests had to say, there are kinks. demand potentially hit about these covid cases we see on the rise. matt: part of the bolstering narrative has been the demand from china. i caught up with the head of downstream. he said this is the sweet spot where we are. the price really matters down here. it matters across the world, but more so here from a fiscal point of view. the morning oil story, they are talking about is the market confident? you are looking at inventories coming down. maybe global driving, global demand. annmarie: you look what's going

on, the data of the united states and places like the u.k. which had a full week of reopening, that is the demand story. india, the rampant virus, it is shutting down oil refineries. that could also mean an increase of prices if refineries get hit very hard. we are waiting on a breakthrough in the iranian talks. manus: what does it mean for supply? is the u.s. in more of a hurry? asian stocks later on their feet? i think that is the india story lifting -- drifting into that. the nasdaq up and eighth of a percent. annmarie: you are on the crypto

crazed. manus: a bit crypto obsessed at the moment. annmarie: i am glad you did not up your pension with it. ♪

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annmarie: welcome to bloomberg markets, the european open. mark cudmore joins me to take us through the market action. the cash trade is less than an hour away. xi jinping calls for greater global economic integration and warns against decoupling in a speech.