>> we've just been hugely stress test here after this bond yields tantrum, and the market has survived. >> we are looking not just at the peaks. we are looking at the sustainability of these trends. >> what we have to question is have things structurally changed. >> the bond market is telling you, not so fast. the fed has the upper hand. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone.

it is a simulcast, radio, television as well. a lot going on as we go to the ecb meeting today. we've got some earnings coming out in america. our interview with governor carney, all of it pushed aside. ac milan exits the super league. jonathan: is there anyone left, tom? tom: i'm asking you. [laughter] jonathan: the miscalculation of some of the leaders of global flood all has been -- global suitable has been astounding. tom: what is the embarrassment to the italian elite here? jonathan: i think it is an embarrassment to everyone involved. it is embarrassing for everybody involved, and it is not a lack of understanding of the game of football. i've had more of that narrative come out of english football, that somehow the force owners don't understand. the owners, can you get any more

italian than the -- family? this is about losing money, and these big clubs want to consolidate their power to try to make more money. they've made a serious miss calculation. six english teams pulled out, one after another. what is interesting now, the ft reporting that these are binding contracts that will take money to exit. one key point, the ft also reports that that money and that exit fee was conditional on the league starting. the league didn't start. so i have no idea what the legal issues are. we will see what it looks like in the coming weeks. tom: who do you pay? jonathan: no idea. don't know what the contract looks like. no idea. tom: you talk about it in the high-yield market. jon talks about it on his property, "the real yield."

this is just another example of money for nothing. lisa: i don't want to segue exactly to try to draw some parallel between all of the stimulus and european soccer leagues. however, there is a comparison. there is an issue of the pressure points that have gotten exacerbated by the pandemic. the idea that there is debt to pay back, and what kinds of desperate measures does that take. we see that key international and business travel pickup to support their bottom line. domestic travel picking up dramatically. it's what? it doesn't pay the bills. how does it reshape the dynamic going forward? tom: what did we learn from governor carney? i thought it was really stimulating about climate change yet i thought his comments on canada were extraordinary. you had some sensitive moments

on the united kingdom. jonathan: i just from ember being in the news conference on several issues come on macro policy and the risk of bubbles. the other issue is inflation. he let inflation run above target in the same way that governor king did. a lot of that was driven by much leaders -- much weaker sterling. we don't have that in the united states. we don't have the same downside risk to growth. that is what is unique about this moment. the upside risk to growth going into next year and a federal reserve with any reaction unction saying it is transitory, we will let it run. i wonder what this fed would have looked like a be a couple of years ago faced with the same scenario they are faced with right now. tom: those levels are different. we have noticed a lift over $1.20. so many houses modeling up to

one dollar 25 cents and even to $1.30. futures a little bit flat, the vix 18.39. brian levitt joins us now with invesco, their global market strategist. give me your take on the global pandemic. the essay of the week is on the brutality of the pandemic to em economies. how does that fold into the invesco financial analysis? brian: there's no doubt that emerging markets are being hit hard now. the early narrative is that the emerging markets have fared better, but clearly many of these economies are struggling. you would want to separate the different emerging economies, though. you still see an environment where china and a good part of asia has come out of this fairly well, but obviously, you look at places like india and brazil, it is still quite challenging. it is likely to be challenging

for some time because it is going to take time for this vaccine rollout to find its way into parts of the emerging world. ultimately we believe medicine and science will get out in front of this as it has in the more advanced world, but it is going to take time. jonathan: what are you looking for in terms of signposts to indicate to you that this is just a pause, and not anything more sinister? brian: financial conditions in the united states, corporate bond spreads are still tight. the yield curve is still steep. you're seeing very good signs of economic betty. economic indicators are booming in the united states. you don't see expectations accelerating. right now it is a good backdrop. the base case is still very promising for the u.s. economy and for financial assets.

there's tail risks. you've talked about this idea of inflation getting out of hand, or on the other side, a resurgence in the pandemic, but in my opinion, this base case is still very optimistic for the economy and financial assets. jonathan:jonathan: talk about what you want to rotate back into to take advantage of the weakness. em equities topped out in the middle of february. are you taking advantage of the weakness? brian: i think you should. it is all part of this reflation, recovery trade. what ended up happening was the recovery has took hold. a lot of investors went along caton and screaming -- went along kicking and screaming. then you had concerns that inflation expectations were picking up. that was going to bring forward fed tightening, that you need to be concerned about the so-called riskier parts of the market, specifically the emerging markets. you've got to be concerned about a tantrum and money being sucked

out of the emerging world. what you're seeing now is a bond market telling us slow down a bit. inflation expectations have not accelerated to the upside meaningfully, and the recovery continues to take hold. that should continue to favor things like small caps. you get a bit of a weaker dollar here that should start to flow to parts of the emerging economy. it is not indefinite. it doesn't go on forever. but so long as the economic recovery trade plays out, small caps and emerging markets should perform well going forward. lisa: what is your take away from the fact that we just had earnings that were largely pretty good, mixed in some cases, but pretty blockbuster on wall street ended in number of other companies? -- wall street and in a number of other companies? how do you make sense of that? brian: there's always a bit of an irony. it is always year one of markets

boom, and everyone wonders how it can happen if the economy is not good and earnings aren't good, and then in year two, the markets are challenged because everyone has -- because everyone think that has gone too far, too fast. that is what ends up causing a pause in markets. a move higher in rates, a bit of strengthening in the dollar, policy expectations. you get markets that go sideways so the market six months ago, when everyone was wondering how it could go up, was assessing the value on -- was assessing that this was going to be a pretty good environment for the economy. so assessing six month from now, is it inflationary, is the fed tightening, i don't believe that is the case. i think markets will continue to advance. tom: bridgewater reaffirm accelerating american economy.

acceleration can be a dangerous physics exercise as well. is there a downside to this boom economy? is there a downside to our second derivatives? brian: the concern is that there is going to be too much demand coming in all at once and not enough supply to meet that demand, and it could become inflationary. the reality is it is still an economy growing below capacity, and there is still a high level of unemployment. while there may be a lag in demand in the economy, ultimately the supply side of the economy can match that, and we still have the long-term structural forces that way against significant growth, aging populations and others. so nothing structural has changed. we had a disastrous recovery. we are climbing out of that hole. it may get a little hot, but

ultimately those structural forces should bring us back to a modest growth, relatively benign inflationary environment. jonathan: looking forward to being back on the training floor -- on the trading floor with the team with invesco again. brian: me as well. jonathan: we want to turn to the stock story of the morning. netflix down around 8.5%. big subscription miss. the company looking for a gain of just one million new customers, a fraction of the 4.4 4 million projected by analysts. these numbers don't stack up. on the equity side at least, not good news. lisa: the interesting thing is how much was priced in. netflix basically saying things would slow down substantially. they haven't changed their overall outlook going forward. the question here is how much can they spend on content. jonathan: it is going to cost money, and it won't be debt funded maybe in the same way.

it is down 8.5% on netflix this morning. equity futures down three points on the s&p 500. euro-dollar, $1.23. coming up in the next hour, at about 40 minutes, david rubenstein, the carlyle group co-founder and host of the david rubenstein show. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. in minneapolis, former police officer derek chauvin has spent his first night in jail. a jury convicted chauvin of second-degree murder and other charges for killing george floyd when he kneeled on his neck for more than nine minutes. chauvin will be sentenced in about eight weeks. he could face a decade -- he could face decades in prison. the white house has to reporters they will pledge to reduce u.s. greenhouse gas emissions by at least half by the end of the decade.

that is an almost doubling of the earlier commitments. it is being discussed ahead of this week's international climate summit. on capitol hill, google and apple will come under antitrust scrutiny. a senate subcommittee will question company executives about the way they run the marketplaces that give consumers access to millions of apps. amy klobuchar says she will ask about the fees developers must pay to be included in app stores. shares of netflix are sharply lower premarket as the streaming service added far fewer new customers than wall street expected in the first quarter. they even missed their own forecast by millions of subscribers. netflix says the current quarter will be more challenging. a lack of new shows may be contributing to the slump. all of this comes after record growth in 2020 that netflix said was due to the pandemic. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg.

♪

♪ >> how can it be right to have a situation in which you create a kind of cartel that stops clubs

competing against each other, playing against each other properly, with all the hope and the excitement that gives to the fans? jonathan: that was prime minister boris johnson. this has got to be the business story of the week worldwide, the collapse of the super league that lasted about 48 hours. from new york city this morning, good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. here's your price action this wednesday morning. on the s&p 500, down about three points, off about 0.1%. the nasdaq, the russell. the russell down more than 3% coming into wednesday. euro-dollar, $1.2006. let's just sit on that story. what a mess it has been. some of the tycoons of the business world have just made one of the biggest miscalculations perhaps in the history of sport, at least in the history of the business of sport. tom: i don't think that is off the mark.

i'm not going to go back to world war ii, but certainly back to my youth. it has just been asked ordinary. why don't you bring it up with alix webb in london? he has observed it. maybe he has some wisdom we don't have. jonathan: alex, your take on the week so far? it felt like a month. alex: astonishing, the roller coaster we have been on. this is a huge effort from the big clubs to protect their revenues. on one side, clubs that are fan owned struggled to compete with clubs that are able to raise equity. they are the ones owned by the americans who are used to the american model of being in a defined league, being able to predict their revenue. the kind of came together and said let's create a leak that has no relegation, has a defined set of members herein and year out. inevitably in europe, the backlash was extraordinary, from

politicians, prince william, fans on the street. i think it was commensurate as well. you and i could be in the premier league in a decade, hypothetically at least. jonathan: leadership in football is going to change. maybe already. these names have been around for a long time in sports. perez of real madrid, going back decades and decades. the changes we have seen this week have been quick. what do you think is left? how do the dominoes fall from here? alex: there is an underlying issue here that football does not have a sustainable business model. from one year to the next, if you have a good season, you can be hugely profitable. the following season, if you are not a successful, you can post really painful losses. they need to find a way of evening out those peaks and troughs. i think there is a way of doing it. it probably requires the big clubs to give up some of that

revenue to in return, may beget some profit. that will mean salary caps, the same way in the nfl, for instance. tom: we were going to have you want to talk apple. let's do it briefly. i think the super league is really important as well. what i noticed yesterday is the first order for the air tag luggage thing was for jon ferro. i think he looks good in a $400 luggage tag. [laughter] who was apple talking to? they were not doing the iphone. who was apple talking to in this product launch? alex: they make a huge amount of money these days from what they call other product, the things like the apple watch, the homepod. that is a really fast-growing category for them. so another $30, $60 here or there, these products are very

lucrative. so i think it is topping out that part of the business. there's not a huge amount of r&d spent up front and not a lot spent on the raw materials. tom: do they have competition? where does apple fit now with what we did 10 years ago, samsung, dell, all the rest of them? or is apple now in a world of their own? alex: i think the thing we are seeing is increasingly, tech companies are expanding. we are seeing apple go into advertising a little bit, google getting into hardware. i think when we get into the world of augmented reality and smart glasses, facebook really sees that as the next form. these are increasingly bumping heads against one another. jonathan: what don't you buy, tom? tom: the smart glasses thing. i remember when i was here, somebody brought in the google glasses. jonathan: i remember using them, too.

they seemed to revolutionize everything, and they didn't. have they ever worked alex? alex: they haven't come about you could ask someone in 1903 if a car would ever go 100 miles an hour around the racetrack and they would say no. it could be five or even another 10 years. jonathan: i always reflect on that clip of the journalist asking about amazon being bigger than sears. i saw that recently over the last couple weeks. the journalist always looked so smug saying, that's ridiculous. i just try and member that. don't be that guy. [laughter] alex, good to catch up with you. your the visionary. i'm not. tom, you've got to be careful, because sometimes the things we are smug about, we say this is ridiculous, sometimes they of the things that take off. tom: yes, that would be true. but i've really got to talk about this, what is this air thingy if you lose something,

you find it? lisa: i love this. you can just stick it on your phone, stick it on your kids. [laughter] jonathan: stick it on your kids. tom: i've got an idea. i've got vet bill with a tiffany collar. we can put the luggage tag on the beast. jonathan: nice. you can do that. is that the luxury element of all of this for you? tom: i think you need to have a padlock on the luggage tag. [laughter] jonathan: remind me the price of this, tom. tom: $449. jonathan: more than the bag. lisa: that is ridiculous. tom: but you're getting airmen as -- you are getting hermes. jonathan: i guarantee you buy one before i do. lisa: in all seriousness, i thought that tom, you were right that this should have been an important meeting for apple. it should have been an important launch, and it wasn't received as such. i do wonder how much of a liability that is for apple if

they can't come up with the next iphone. tom: romaine i thought was correct, and he undersold it. what they are doing, and it may come down to parts shortages, maybe they are setting themselves up for a huge september announcement, there is a desperate need for enhanced, sophisticated apple computers. jonathan: how many times have we been talking about this? tim cook can't get it done. and he just turned it into the capital return machine. the stock just hasn't mattered at all. tom: i don't know, the colored i macs, lisa, are you going to buy them? lisa: now, they get the air tags. [laughter] jonathan: i think it is different than the discretionary spending at the keen household -- the keene household. tom: i think this is keene would

look awfully good with one of the imacs. what color should she get? jonathan: from new york city this morning, good morning. tom keene gripping both lisa and i. [laughter] tom: you guys are brave. i would have taken the week off. .

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jonathan: from new york city, for our audience worldwide, live on tv and radio alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. price action going into the opening bell come equities down about .2% on the s&p. on the nasdaq off .4%. look out below on netflix stock. we will talk about that next couple of hours. into the bond market, and the treasury yield yields are higher by a single basis point on tens. euro-dollar going into tomorrow's news conference, the decision by christine lagarde of the ecb, euro-dollar 1.2008, in .2%. these are important conversations. tom: we will advance that right

now. alberto kahlo. -- alberto gallo. in the super league blowup, we have been making jokes about leeds, but this is not funny. the toughest thing in italy like leeds is gallo's naples. there is real parallel. jonathan: naples has been one of the clubs in italy that has been able to challenge juventis. they are great example of a club that would've been frozen out of this european football league with little chance of joining it and the napolis of the world that have had european heritage have not been able to get back in and conquer. that is the beauty of the sport, if you are able to get back in the ranks. jonathan: alberto gallo was

hoping he would talk about the credit market. we have to start with napoli first. your take on the events of this week. alberto: i think this is the time for markets and society to price inequality, we do not want it at the social level and the sports level. even though there are few teams that wealthier, people want to have a game that is fair. the less wealthy teams can compete come the same with society. we do not want to go in that direction to encourage inequality. jonathan: you are fighting zero rates as a portfolio manager? how are you getting on? alberto: this is a much tougher year. with the extreme crisis we had last year we had central banks and fiscal policy pushing down the accelerator.

the result is governments have more debt and central banks have to do more and continue to do more. what we see today is really yields are negative, and are a 60% of the bond market below 1%. for the last year's very easy to get bonds. the price is more needed by investors. it's much tougher but we still find real opportunities. i would say the second half of the year would be more vulnerable than the second half. we have bigger risks and markets are complacent. tom: where do you see a boom economy outcome to see price up and yield down? i am fascinated where you are q3 and q4, even the first quarter of next year. how do you get there? alberto: can the first half of the year, the big news was the

new administration deploying its firepower, not just to combat the virus but also create new growth. this news is john. now we have other government spending like europe, but it is much slower. ahead of us we have three big risks. the first is central banks might withdraw -- at some point there will be discussion of tapering. it could be in q3 or q4. the second risk is geopolitics. russia and china are teaming up against the u.s.. in ukraine and taiwan there is also a shortage of semiconductors. this risk is not priced in by markets. the third risk is the vaccines are going slow in europe and a lot of emerging markets. the non-us, non-u.k. economies will take longer to reopen. it is a k-shaped recovery and markets have been pricing a

v-shaped recovery. we will see more volatility in q3 and q4. today we are at record low levels for credit spreads and high-yield. an investment grade we have a 100 year low. the lowest yield level on u.s.. thin levels. markets are priced for perfection. it is time to take a step back and focus on hedges and protection. lisa: can you elaborate on what protection means at a time when there is fear of rising rates, of early withdrawal of monetary stimulus as you are talking about, as well as are we priced a protection on the riskier credit side? alberto: we are almost priced to perfection. one protection you want to have is fixed income investors prevent a declining price from a rise in rates, from a rise in inflation. so far treasuries were leading the wiring, but we have seen

european btp widening more. the bar is much lower for europe. for bunds to go to zero between now and year end, you just need a little bit of positive news and some agreements on the eu recovery fund. that will drive bunds higher. it could wipe out all of your kerry if you have a high duration. in credit we have a lot of firms that have not restructured and are trading at low spreads. u.s. high yield spreads are close to 280 basis points. there is little chance of making money if we invest at that low level. at some point you will have a problem. it is a matter of when. the question is how to engineer strategies that hedge your portfolio or to have enough liquidity to buy when other

people are selling. that is what we are doing. chasing the market now is foolish in fixed income. bonds are very negative for investors. it does not mean you cannot make money. you can make money when volatility comes back. lisa: here is the conundrum. this makes perfect sense based on historical investing principles. every time we see a selloff in rate, if it gets a commencement selloff in credit, you get a flight to safety. the flight to safety is bonds. the yields go real lower and we get a reset of where we were before. why are we going into a new regime where that is not the cycle we are going into? alberto: there are two options for policymakers. one is to make the bond market price quickly. that would also entail higher costs for different treasuries around the world. ultimately makers cannot afford that. the second option is to impose

on investors a negative real return. having inflation at 2.5% or 3% in the u.s., that is probably what is going to happen. essentially bond investors, that means most insurance companies, will lose money slowly instead of losing money quickly. it is the second best option but it is still a bad option. as an active manager, what we have to do is to trade the policy cycles. we will not go back to a positive level. jonathan: -- tom: you have to trade off of what ecb does. are you more interested in what christine lagarde says or what she does not say? alberto: we are more interested in what she does not say. at the moment there is not a lot of things the ecb can do. they are running on all cylinders.

the question is when will the discussion about the end of the emergency purchase program start. tapering. also there are other long-term discussions about the strategic review of the ecb, about average inflation targeting, which are going into play during the summer. there is another important factor, which is central bank currency. a lot of central banks have talked about this, and ultimately this is something that could unleash a lot more levers for monetary policy. for example, interest rates could become more negative or central banks could inject money into firms directly. that is the ultimate fear, not for today or this meeting, but it is a lot more interesting to hear what they do not say. jonathan: alberto, we have to leave it there. good to hear from you. football and a little bit on credit and the markets and the ecb tomorrow. alberto gallo of algerbris

portfolio management. coming up on the open, peter cecchini will be joining us. also have to promo this. $12.3 trillion in stimulus killed the default cycle. here is the lead paragraph. "it is fair to say $12.3 trillion of stimulus seems to have killed off the u.s. credit cycle. all fear of bankruptcy has been obliterated from debt markets even though the global economy is still struggling under the worst health crisis in a century." do you recognize the author of this piece? a column from lisa abramowicz. tom: then we get her on air? jonathan: we should some time. lisa, a fantastic piece. lisa: this is something i've been thinking about after ratings put out there lowered forecast for default, this idea we have prolonged the debt cycle to make it resemble something

we've never seen in history, where there is not the fiscal discipline. what is the outcome? if we do not get the debt default cycle, how do we emerge from this crisis. what is the role in the central banking system going forward? jonathan: basically every time tom talked about football you took the time to write ? [laughter] -- to write a new paragraph? [laughter] tom: i wrote a piece that said it was time for the american league to finally get rid of the dl and they said they cannot publish it. jonathan: great from lisa abramowicz, $12.3 trillion of stimulus killing the default cycle. wednesday morning come equities lower. we are off .25%. in the bond market, yields are unchanged. 1.2626. we talked a little about the ecb. tom, that will be your main

event tomorrow morning. today with the -- tom: today with the data the way it is, 9:00 looks like a snooze fest. jonathan: thank you for the promo. on radio, on tv, this looks -- this is "bloomberg surveillance." ritika: president biden has called on congress to honor george floyd bypassing law enforcement reform. biden spoke after a jury convicted the former minneapolis police derek chauvin of killing floyd. house democrats have passed legislation that imposes restriction on federal authorities. in the senate the bill does not have a clear path to a filibuster proof 60 vote majority. a u.s. driven effort to reach an agreement on taxing big tech companies overseas is getting bogged down. the reason is one company. that is amazon. the new rules that would apply to any large companies that

exceed certain numbers for their annual revenue. amazon is a low-margin tech giant and other countries are bopping at the idea that would mean it would not be covered by attacks agreement. verizon lost wireless subscribers for the first time in a year. the largest carrier posted a loss of 170,000 wireless customers. analysts had forecast and increase. it is a troubling sign for verizon, which is trying to catch up with at&t and t-mobile in the race for 5g subscribers. prescription eyewear seller is considering an ipo, possibly this year. bloomberg has learned the company is in talk with advisors. warby parker has a value of $3 billion. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we will reach the time at which we will taper asset purchases when we have made

substantial further progress towards our goals from last december when we announce that guidance. that would in all likelihood be well before the time we consider raising interest rates. we have not voted on that order, but that is the sense of the guidance, that it would work in that way. tom: the chairman of the federal reserve system, jerome powell. that is a different jerome powell than when he was speaking early in his tenure. he has really grown into the conversation. he gives guidance to david rubenstein, peer-to-peer conversations. this is a piercing interview of the economic club of washington. look for it tonight at 9:00. mr. rubenstein joins us. what did you learn from chairman powell? what was new in your conversation? david: i think he made it very clear that interest rates are unlikely to go up until after 2022, but the standard is whether inflation gets to 2% or above and we can sustain at that

level, and secondly whether the unemployment rate goes down to full employment. if you get full employment, let's say 4.5%, inflation is at 2% and appears to be going above 2%, then the interest rate -- he does not expect that happening before 2022 is over. tom: the arc of your career, from working for carter and mondale years ago, and also working for carlisle on the to -- the allocation of capital. did you speak about the distortions to our capital incentives by negative real yields? david: we did not talk about negative real yields because it has not been something they have focused on. the federal reserve to you is negative yields are not a good thing to do. we in effect have negative yields to some extent, but he is more focused on making sure the economy comes back to a full

employment situation. that is his main focus. i would say he is very confident in his position. he has obviously been doing it for a while. he has the confidence of the federal reserve board and the confidence of the secretary of the treasury. i would say the president of the united states as well. he does not talk in fed speak. he is not an economist and he talks like a normal human being. that is a good thing. tom: this is a hugely important deal. i agree with david. jerome powell has grown into being comfortable not doing fed speak. lisa: there is a question that also highlights how the federal reserve has transformed from controlling the monetary system to a much more popular body, basically trying to speak to a broader mandate. i think about the meaning behind full employment. was that the message you got from chair powell? david: he is not in an ivory tower, he is not an economist.

he spent a lot more time on capitol hill talking to members in the normal fed chairman does. his mandate is not to worry about climate change or minority unemployment, but they do consider those factors in an oblique way. he is much more sensitive to these issues than some of his predecessors. he talked about a prior interview, and in this interview , the fact that when he goes to the fed, he drives past a homeless shelter, and it affects him and he talks about it because it recognizes the impact of the economy has not been good on people in the lower part of the economic strata. he does worry about that even though it is not in his mandate. lisa: he also waited on cryptocurrencies that comes as coinbase went public, and he talked about them being a speculative asset. what is your sense of his view? you think that is the correct view, or is this a future, not the future, but i future of an

entire investing class? david: i would be surprised if it disappears. it seems to serve a purpose for some people. it is likely to be around for a while. he did say people are not using it to pay bills, but in some places you can use cryptocurrency to pay for certain things. it is a small part of the economy. they are monitoring it. his main job is to make certain the economy comes back in a reasonable way without a lot of inflation. he is very attentive to it. he did work at my firm for a number of years. i got to know him before he was in government. he is a hard-working, articulate person. the fact that he has a close relationship with janet yellen is a plus. tom: i must digress. you are familiar with the entrepreneurial spirit of the glazer family of rochester, new york. the financial wisdom of john

henry of the fenway group. all of these people dabble in english football. we have seen a complete debacle of people with a lot of money trying to impute a business plan on a culture and society. what is your observation of the collapse of this soccer league across europe. what is your observation of how fancy guys got this so wrong? david: a lot of american entrepreneurs did make a fair amount of money investing in european soccer, typically british soccer teams. a lot of people were surprised when the glazer family bought manchester united and it turned out to be a good deal. john henry's investment turned out to be good. whether the new effort will work is too early to say. it is interesting how so many wealthy people today want to invest in sports franchises, not because they love the sport, because they think is a good investment.

75 years ago people often bought sports teams because they love the sport. why i will not say people dislike the sport, it is basically an investment process. tom: it is a slow day. i have to make news quick. how much you love the baltimore orioles right now? david: i did grow up in baltimore and i'm a big fan of the baltimore orioles and i hope they can live up to their glory days when i was a young person. tom: he stepped around that. lisa: the headline. tom: the entrepreneurial spirit you would bring to the orioles and to an american league would be wonderful. david: right now i am focused on this interview with jay powell, which is being broadcast tonight on bloomberg tv. lisa: [laughter] well done. david: i spent an hour with him. i would say the producer on the show has done a wonderful job of editing it down. kelly, i want to congratulate

her on just getting engaged this weekend. thank you for that and for all of the good job you are doing in editing this interview down. if you want to see jay powell up close in person, this is a good way to do it. he does open up. he is fairly frank and i would say i have a good relationship and he was open. tom: thank you so much, and of course what kelly is doing for you on all of these interviews. david rubenstein with jerome powell. as mr. rubenstein mentions, it is a piercing and different interview than the usual you hear from jerome powell. lisa: there is actually news crossing the bloomberg terminal. iata sees the expectation for airlines to start breaking even in 2022, which is interesting, given the fact international travel has to come back by then. when in 2022 is important. jonathan: the key idea -- tom:

the key idea is to get to 2022. coming up, jane harman. lots to talk about on america, and particularly on washington. this is bloomberg radio and television. ♪

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jonathan: good morning, good morning. this is the countdown to the open. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. equity futures slightly negative. we begin with the big issue. the cyclical rally stalling. >> we are going into this period where the news is baked in the short term. the dry up in volume, confusion of leadership. >> the exhaustion phase. >> the idea the second economic growth -- is peaking. >> the big reopening trade initially. >> a huge reopening into cyclicals and small caps. >> the likely outcome is a pause. >> small caps have started to underperform. >> we continue to like the reflationary stories. >> what happens in 2022? >> what we do not like as