tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg April 22, 2021 6:00am-7:00am EDT
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sustainability of these trends. >> where policy stands today -- there are tough decisions ahead. >> put the bond market is telling me right now is not so fast. fed has the upper hand. >> we still have the long-term sources that we against a significant acceleration and growth. >> this is "bloomberg surviellance." jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance. i'm jonathan ferro. we have got to start the morning in zurich. credit suisse down another six percentage points. tom: you go right to the common stock and the analysis of it. i think the coverage has been weak and at this is about share dilution, when in doubt, nail the present shareholders. liza has a calculation of a 7%
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shared dilution. jonathan: raising $2 billion and taking another 600 swiss here. capital has mainly been -- the questions remaining, strategy. tom: i just don't buy it. strategy is out the window. you are taking the common shareholders to the cleaners and they have an emergent basis and have to adjust this bank and stop the share price decline. jonathan: have you had enough clarity transparency over the past couple of weeks from this bank? tom: i don't know. this has been going on for years a credit suisse. i think francine is the expert on this with her many interviews with the previous management and present management. i thought he was basically leaden this morning and the bottom line is, what does this bank do? they go back to 1856 where they find that magnificent rail system.
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are they the weakest of the bold bracket banks? jonathan: right now, yes. every time there is trouble in europe, they are at the epicenter. the ceo was talking about the risk in the bank. clearly, they were not successful in doing that. lisa: and they are saying they are going to do risk further reducing the amount of leverage they extend. i wonder how much that is contributing to a little bit of softness in markets and banks around the world. i will say though, has transparency been enough, a lot of questions about where the losses stemmed from, how it could be that they still have some positions on their books. the answers were not clear, executive management saying if we had exited earlier, it would not have stemmed the losses that much. how could that be? what is the explanation then? jonathan: and will thomas try to achieve what the last tried to?
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credit suisse executives have given the point salesman to our key -- what happened here is still something we have not had a good explanation on. tom: the distinction here is maybe other banks made the same decision and it was a wrong decision. they got out of it and then, other banks had the decision not even to participate. i see zero contrition. i see almost an mba numbness of consulting as they try to manage their way out of this debacle. jonathan: as you point out, this goes way before thomas. i'm ever going over to credit suisse in the early part of the last decade and talking about the strategy then as well. we have been talking about this for a long time. tom: i'm not going to take it
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back to their acquisition of years ago or even the first boston acquisition of 1978, but this is a bank that has just stumbled forward. again, you see it this morning with the ultimate answer. they have to build up tier one capital, so they do a 7% share dilution. i wore my ecb type. it looks good on radio. jonathan: it looks fantastic. we have to talk about earth day as well, the president set to announce new targets for the united states to achieve 52% reduction from 2005 levels. a renewed effort. lisa: a renewed effort also to lead in this front. that is a key question. how will the u.s. lead on this front following the presidency?
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also interesting to see how much money they will put behind this. how much can you put behind this if you don't have bipartisan support? jonathan: three big stories for us through this thursday morning. let's get to the price action. tom keene fired up this morning. yield unchanged at 156. just a little bit of euro strength going into the ecb meeting later this morning. lisa: a lot of uncertainty. we get that ecb rate decision followed at 8:30 eastern time by christine lagarde's press conference. the key question will be after june, what happens? will the ecb continue after june? how much inflation will they tolerate? and what bonds will they be buying? these are all some of the questions that christine lagarde will be facing amid a rather -- i one is a split, but you hear different things from different
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arms of the ecb body, which perhaps is a bit of a problem. president biden is going to kick off this climate summit that is being held virtually. we already talked about the idea that the u.s. is going to be aiming to cut their emissions in half by the end of 2030. key question is, how much momentum can he generate and how much credibility can he engender given what kind of financing the u.s. can promise behind this. i wonder at this point whether this is even useful data. the key question is, what information can we glean from data that is highly messy and suspect. at the same time, is there a sense of how much service deployment is being brought online? how much we are seeing some sort of easing in employment? tom: i just think it is really important.
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canada is generating jobs, we are not. it is not about restaurant jobs. it is getting the labor economy back on track. jonathan: what is interesting about this statement, these gas pollution were doug -- reduction targets aimed at creating good, paying union jobs, tom: that is how you get reelected. jonathan: that is the top of the fact sheet released from this administration. i want to go straight to this market. really choppy over the last month or so. >> good morning. we are still overweight stocks. we have brought down our risk a bit. again, nothing too surprising. we continue to expect a very strong economic data.
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there are also other issues. clearly, the market is going to have to navigate this transition from incredible monetary accommodation to thinking about what removing some of that accommodation is ultimately going to look like. while i don't think we are looking at a full-blown taper tantrum -- if we see these spikes in bond market volatility, it does have at least a temporary effect on how equities are traded. tom: i look at where we are and everyone is trying to reset. what have you changed in the last two weeks in your mindset? >> in the last two weeks, we have not changed that much. we have trimmed a little bit of equity risk out of the portfolio, but if you look at the basic structure, it is more or less the way it has been the last several months. we expect rates to move higher. it was hard to reconcile -70 bits on real 10 year yields with an economy likely to grow 7%,
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8%, mind percent, 10%. we are still overweight the u.s. , still overweight europe because we like a lot of the cyclicals there. other than bringing down the data a bit, no radical changes in the portfolio. lisa: what are you looking forward to get back involved in risk more aggressively? >> we were still overweight stocks and i think we have a position in the portfolio that is markets continue to move higher and our base case is at the end of the year, stocks will be higher than they are today, we are going to participate. on the other hand, we do think markets have moved a lot and you're probably going to get better entry points for some of the moves we like them we have today. one of the things we're looking at is stocks are showing an increasing tendency to reverse. if you have a big move one day, you tend to be followed in the coming days by a down move and vice versa.
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can you take advantage of that turn in the market to get into positions, some long-term themes that we like at a better price. jonathan: good to hear from you, as always. a bit of volatility out there, some uncertainty. chris verrone said we lack a narrative right now. tom: you are dead on. the verona shift of really getting more hesitant is interesting. one of the names i am hearing as you are looking at this is your chosen opportunity. when you have the courage? jonathan: who wins the quarter? sarah saying q1 was won by the united states and q2 by europe. lisa: that certainly is being priced in the margins. you see the euro gaining against the dollar.
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i got to say, the increasing conundrum in markets right now is rates. there was a consensus heading into this year that rates would go up. now, it is getting more split, this idea of transitory catching up with markets signing onto that. jonathan: nothing really changes. what has changed right now apart from the price? lisa: we actually got confirming data. tom: transitory. lisa: i did that for you. jonathan: you got something to say? tom: what is transitory is garrett started yesterday. jonathan: is that why you are in such a good mood? tom: it is fascinating. we don't have time for this, but i am fascinated how jp morgan comes out of this debacle. jonathan: many people are.
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tom: amazing. jonathan: just for you, so you can have another drink -- lisa: just drink anyway. jonathan: transitory. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: president biden will pledge to cut u.s. greenhouse omissions in half by 2030. that nearly doubles a commitment made under former president obama that was later scrapped by former president trump. president biden will convene 41 leaders in a virtual climate summit that begins today. more fallout from credit suisse. the swiss bank expects a $654 million second-quarter hit. a swiss regulator has asked credit suisse to add more than
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$2 billion of capital. >> we are all responsible for what happened. it is not our job -- now our job to take credit suisse to the next level. we have a lot of good elements in his first quarter we can build on. together with the board of directors, we are doing this investigation and we will build on that. ritika: meanwhile, swiss regulators are starting proceedings against credit suisse. jill biden is set to become the first president in 40 years to recognize the mass killings of armenians as mass genocide. that runs the risk of severing an already fragile relationship with turkey. the killings took place under the ottoman empire which later became turkey and various successive states. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake. this is bloomberg. ♪
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the firms that are enervating, lower carbon, part of the solution, and the financial getting behind those solutions are doing very well. this is where the world is headed. jonathan: really great to catch up with the former bank of england governor. from new york city this morning, good morning. this thursday morning, and ecb rate decision just around the corner. claims in america going into the equity futures is shaping up. slightly negative. in the bond market, yields high by almost a basis point. euro-dollar maintaining that 120 handle of 120.54. look at another 600 million hit off the back of the chaos.
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that is the story out of zurich. let's talk about a story in the united states. bank of america producing research this morning. it pays to be green. investors are on top of this in a much bigger way over the last couple of years. tom: a little perspective, i remember the first earth day. i was a senior in high school. it was a joke like really, you've got to be kidding me. the air pollution in this nation is dramatically better than it ever was. i use los angeles as a litmus paper. i remember unable to see the san gabriel mountains, unable to breathe in pasadena a million years ago. it is better right now. good morning to you. can the president legislate
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climate change? is this a pr or executive or get reelected or make the international community happy exercise, or can we actually legislate climate change in washington? >> legislating climate change is the hardest part of addressing climate change, but based on what we have seen from biden so far, it does look like he is going to put a lot of effort into legislating it rather than doing things entirely on his own. you look at what he proposed in the infrastructure plan in terms of things like electrifying the federal fleet, electric car infrastructure, but also about $400 billion in tax incentives for clean energy. that is a lot different than what obama did relying very heavily on the clean power plan and things the executive branch tried to do on its own. that does not mean he won't go on his own and does not mean he is necessarily destined for success, but he is trying to
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legislate a lot more on this than we have seen from past administrations. jonathan: i will choose my words carefully because corporations are doing their own thing. if the fed -- is the federal government the place where we have an issue? >> yes. if you talk to climate activists, even just democrats who want something to happen, there has been a lot of action from cities, the private sector. the regulatory side of the electric sector and infrastructure side on the transportation sector. you can see why politically, it has been slow to happen.
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the federal government has been really slow. jonathan: let's talk about the pace -- press release. u.s. leadership, by america is also in this. how important are those issues? >> those are exactly how the biden administration is going to frame this. tv ads talking about getting america to work on these climate proposals. there is a lot of spending, a lot of infrastructure related focus on what they have laid out for their climate plans. the issue for them is that could be separated from whatever they want to pass. republicans are saying why don't we do and infrastructure package but take out all of this climate related stuff. the message does not necessarily sell itself. that is exactly where the pushback is coming from republicans in washington.
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lisa: there is also conflict between how the current administration sells a climate plan to republicans, a bipartisan committee of congress members versus to the world. this is sort of the conundrum. how can the u.s. leave globally and say this is good for everybody? >> in that sense, the way they sell it publicly and the way they sell it to republicans may not necessarily be different. the spending and building infrastructure approach is a more bipartisan approach than focusing really heavily on regulatory aspects in the electric sector. you can build and create jobs, but you can also use the stick rather than a carrot. the biden administration is talking -- focusing on accommodation of both. the question is, can they sell
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it to republicans. they seem to have positive talks on how to pay for electric car infrastructure and that kind of thing. it is still a challenge. jonathan: good to see you. i think you took us to the right topic. think about who is at the summit today. lisa: you think it is hard getting congress together in washington, try getting them together to agree on a climate proposal. the issue is that the economy, globally, is struggling. these countries have to think about their economies. jonathan: the stage is pretty
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fraught right now. i think there were people suggesting that perhaps countries like china would use this as a bargaining chip to get this administration to back off on other issues. tom: there is no question the other issues matter including the unraveling pandemic. what i would go back to is mark carney yesterday. he was on fire about how this is not going to be solved with the federal level. it is going to start at the local and business level. jonathan: couldn't agree more. this is a federal government that has a credibility issue. companies are well ahead of this already. tom: we go back to the paris accord and what we will see out of this. how does he address this
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♪ jonathan: from the art -- new york city for our audience worldwide, equity futures down about four on the s&p 500, -1/10 of 1%. this after a nice ramp into the close yesterday. looking for something a little north of 600,000 for jobless claims. for the bond market, two, 10, 30, domestically i am looking at vaccinations and the rate vaccinations starting to rollover, starting to slow down. yields this morning high by about a basis point on the 10 year to 1.5644. 2.26 on the 30. the first quarter was america's
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quarter, a line from deutsche bank. the earlier addition with francine lacqua, his call is q2 will be europe's quarter. euro-dollar, he is looking for a move toward 1.25. right now, 1.21, the euro slightly weaker today. it is the inflection over the last couple of weeks as we reclaim the 1.20 handle on the back of better than expected vaccination progress. we see it in europe, convergence between europe and the united states. we are not seeing that in brazil and we are not seeing that in india. tom: i'm glad you bring it up and i'm gradual brought up george saravelos because there are a lot of different moving parts. we will try to coalesce into an important conversation on the american labor economy. frances donald, you are expert. thank you for joining us. i want to dovetail george
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saravelos' note. he is in foreign exchange and is looking at strong canadian dollar. you live and breed this with manual life of montreal, so we have a wonderful nexus with george saravelos and frances donald on the canadian-u.s. difference. the answer according to george is canada is creating jobs, and they have a nation getting back to real excellence faster than america. how long is it going to take for america to stop replacing restaurant jobs and get back to actual true job formation? frances: there is about six questions and that -- tom: i tried, i was going for seven and failed. frances: let's start with what we can learn from canada. canada is telling us a couple important stories. relative fiscal policy is a key market driver.
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that is true between the canada and the u.s., and the u.s. and europe. labor market healing will be a key component to our forecast. places like canada and europe did not experience the same drop in labor force participation rates. what matters for the united states is the known unknown, labor supply comes back to america. that is the key to wages and unlocking 2022 and 2023 growth. we need to look at these economies and we see an important story, the u.s. q1 story, a lot of very good news priced into the story. the reopening. where are the expectations low, where are the hawkish surprises outside the u.s.? in places like europe and canada. the next move higher in treasury yields will not be u.s. driven, probably glover and -- global
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driven. tom: marshall supply and demand, is this about labor supply coming on or is it about labor demand in america? frances: it is going to be both. this is one of the biggest challenges, that we have this whole list of missing inputs into our outlook and they range from things like what our corporate taxes going to be, what does the infrastructure look like, what about the double mutant variant that we have to incorporate? we don't know how fast it will come back, demand and supply, because we've never lived with this before. you hear strategist say we are fully healed or back to full employment by 2022. we just don't know. the federal reserve has told us they are not just looking for full employment by traditional metrics, but a broad-based, inclusive employment pool. the goalposts are also moving
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and make for a complicated forecast. we need to thinking about confidence as we go into the next few months. tom: i like that we are complicated, a nation moving in fits and starts. jonathan: for the airplanes -- airlines, travel as picked up domestically. southwest coming out and saying they're hopeful to achieve breakeven by june. the first quarter coming in around 1.72, 1.85 the estimate. hoping to achieve breakeven by june. a little bit later this morning i believe we get airlines -- american airlines earnings. lisa: if you look at the overall picture, i added the international association for airlines, and it says the net loss would be substantially bigger, $10 billion bigger than
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they previously expected because of the variants and the prolonged nature of this pandemic, which is not going away. jonathan: i want to use the term tom used, "fits and starts." this will come in waves. what does that mean for you? frances: when you are an economist, you have to say what will happen to the economy and how much of that has already been priced? when i hear headlines, we will be less than expected, this worries me. the scope for downside in the united states is bigger. i hear a lot of people saying, i am worried because i have got a place in florida and it is packed. it is still going to be packed in 2022 and 2023 and you will notice a lot of clients are opting out of the boom bust. a spike above drop in growth for 2023, that may be far off, but that is the fiscal impulse.
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we will have to trade those in the next six 36 months -- three to six months, but do we see a pull forward of demand in the united states and are we seeing more of a problem? jonathan: you wear too -- you wear two hats. more scope but downside surprises in america. is it market participant? frances: the problem is we are looking at a market, and even though i can see we have seen peak reflation, peak reopening, i cannot be sure. i don't want to be long bonds particularly after this move, if there is a little more upside. rates are still incredibly low. if you want to make a return profile, you have to allocate to equities in the low rate varmint. now is the time -- environment.
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now is the time to focus on country risk and country plays to make money in the next six months as opposed to making calls on broad risks or headline sps. lisa: it is birthday and i'm wondering how much you are paying attention -- it is birthday and i'm wondering how much you are -- earth day and i'm wondering how much you're paying attention. frances: the transition from the trump administration to the biden administration is green spending. we talk about fiscal spending. people usually say billions and trillions of dollars equals this amount of growth, but green spending will have a longer horizon with a different fiscal multiplier. the other factor that is critical is green bond issuance as another component of future asset allocation, a lot of thirst for that investing, looking at green spending, key
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component of the outlook but also for portfolio construction. lisa: i want to dovetail this idea of a green initiative with jobs and wages. biden coming out and saying this will generate well-paying jobs, but union groups pushing back and saying solar and wind companies have been opposed to unionization and oppose efforts to bring wages up. what's the truth? frances: the element of this is all forts of infrastructure spending, from green to highways , they hit the economy with a long lag, so you can announce these initiatives but we don't see them traditionally from anywhere from three to eight years, so finding the truth and reality will not happen until next year. heading into 20222023, there will be a problem with the economy. jonathan: knowing what you know
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is so difficult. we hear the term greenwashing. huge demand, then you go through the top holdings apple, microsoft, alphabet, and facebook, maybe they are the lead companies and maybe that is the right way to benchmark this etf, but for people advocate -- allocating capital to some of these stories, do you think they know what they are? frances: my focus is moving away from country specific risks also because i'm a macro strategist, but focusing on the country rate of this component. esg, we are talking about having to do early green transitions. countries will be accelerating green spending in order to avoid losing capital flows. that's the component of the
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macro story that has to integrate the green infrastructure program. jonathan: really interesting final point, great to catch up. frances donald of man u life. great to have her come off and tom in his place. lisa: there were about six questions in there, want to throw in a seventh? tom: we do panels and she just crushes me on stage. jonathan: southwest airlines aiming for breakeven by june. it is a domestic company, a domestic tilt. american airlines later this morning. i wonder how different those airlines will be front and -- numbers will be for an international airline. tom: you wonder what the airlines will do domestically. your esg focus, the last 24 hours and jp morgan, my er firm -- pr firm engine this yesterday. what does jp morgan do out of this with their european soccer
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green? i cannot figure out -- maybe they are not, am i right? jonathan: there is so many stakeholders miscalculated how they've would play out -- how this would play out maybe not just the banks but also the leaders. this wasn't just about foreigners owning british companies, english football teams. i've been saying that all week, but it is easy to overlook that fact. these are individuals with great experience that have been around the sport a long time, that made the mother of all miscalculations. nothing to say. tom: i was just thinking about padres-dodgers. lisa: [laughter] i think you need a mute button. jonathan: this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word
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news, i am ritika gupta. credit suisse is raising about $2 billion to shore up capital after warnings of another financial hit. here is the ceo. >> it was a situation that is now being reviewed also by u.s. regulators. it was a very idiosyncratic situation with a family office. when john some deficiencies in -- which had some deficiencies in terms of disclosure. there were six or seven other brokers involved, so it was not only credit suisse, but we certainly had higher exposures than others. ritika: the swiss regulator vindman has started enforcement proceedings. the biden administration will restore california's power to limit auto emissions, a shift
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that will lead to tougher requirements across much of the u.s.. trump era policies limited their ability to set policies. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
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the vaccines that we are not using. we have got to make sure they are safe to be sent, and we hope to be able to be of some help and value to countries around the world. jonathan: that was president biden on a really important issue, the pace of vaccinations in the united states starting to slow. supply is not an issue and the pressure is growing to issue supply worldwide where it is needed most. people are thinking about india. good morning, alongside tom keene, lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. equities down two points, not even 1/10 of 1%. the bond market, 1.5592. euro-dollar, advancing a little more than 1/10 of 1% going into the ecb decision. there is the headline connected to the story out of india --
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singapore to borrow vaccines from india on the deteriorating situation which is worse and worse. tom: just a matter of time before we see that with other geographies. we will have news on goldman sachs in a moment. right now, jennifer nuzzo with us, johns hopkins center for health security and all of a sudden our health security is important. how far are we from a humanitarian crisis in india? dr. nuzzo: we are on the brink. the stories that worry me the most is hearing about shortages of medical oxygen. to think you can save people's lives by supplementing oxygen and they do not have oxygen, something easy to make, is a severe tragedy. tom: how close are we to shifting closer to 1947 and the starvation of europe and the netherlands post-world war ii? how close are we to where there will be a call for
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international, developed nation and american responsibility to assist india? dr. nuzzo: we are there. if the call has not already been sounded, let's sound it now because clearly there is a deep struggle and they need help. the united states will not be back to normal, fully safe until we help countries with these very concerning surges. lisa: based on the surges we've seen, how much has the end of the pandemic been pushed out? dr. nuzzo: it is really hard to say. parts of the globe have not gone through this and you don't want any country to go through this, where you see a massive surge of cases. any country that has not had a surge and is not actively vaccinating remains at risk. earlier, there were countries that may be breathed a sigh of relief and assumed they escaped the worst of the pandemic, but we are seeing clearly that is not the case, that many parts of
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the world remain deeply at risk. i worry about these headlines continuing for a year or more. international partners get together and share some of the vaccines, we need to make more vaccines, there is clearly a shortage of medical supplies that needs to be addressed, so a lot of work globe can do to help countries and lesson the hideous tolls the pandemic has had. lisa: we need to make vaccine and convince people to get it. it has been a slowing pace of vaccination in the united states. dr. nuzzo: it is quite concerning. i read a study about an outbreak in a nursing home where most residents were protected with vaccines but only about 53% of the health care workers had been fully vaccinated. unfortunately, one of the residents who had been vaccinated and this can happen in medically frail individuals, died we heard about states --
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died. we've heard about states pulling back on ordering vaccines because they've not had the uptick they have had. we need to address this with urgency. some people are trying to wait and see. some people do not want to get vaccinated, but we need to reach both of those groups and your time to get vaccinations as soon as you are able. jonathan: what a tough moment to be a leader of this country because there is so much pressure. it takes some of those supply here and allocates it to the rest of the world where it is needed. how do you make a decision like that, when some parts of your country have decided they don't want this vaccine? dr. nuzzo: it is a tough decision and every elective -- elected official's responsibility is to those who elected him or her. the united states has more vaccines than we need, even if
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every single american were to get one. we still have more than we need, so it's important for us to consider donating at least to cover some very high risk groups like health care workers working across the globe. they show up every day, put their lives on the line. we should be able to protect them and the u.s. has enough vaccine to help in those efforts. jonathan: dr. jennifer nuzzo, johns hopkins senior scholar. what a delicate moment, a decision -- difficult decision to make. when you start to see it showing up in the data, the hesitancy, and you see a crisis in latin america, india, brazil, the pressure will build to do something. lisa: there is a humanitarian aspect, the images just horrifying of people struggling to get to the hospital and not enough beds, not enough oxygen. it also is an issue of economic recovery. can the united states fully recover without the rest of the
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world on board? no. we are seeing that with airlines. southwest is ok but american is a different story. we cannot end the pandemic and less do more outreach. jonathan: alaska doing ok, another airline with a domestic tilt. goldman, a big call. tom: this is one of those tea leaves during earnings season of a reset. keith horowitz writes very careful notes on citigroup. it is not what he says on goldman, this is not an extrapolation of a boom quarter, it is a refresh of his excel spreadsheet and it gets him up 20%, which gets my attention. jonathan: christ target -- price target for 10. tom: i go back to sanford bernstein who was legendary. you don't extrapolate the
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securities business. it is a good way to lose money. horowitz is not doing that. he is just resetting for their market share dominance in the margin ability. jonathan: we hear today on the stock, up more than 20%, 25%, plus the golden stock. -- goldman stock. lisa: outperforming a lot of banks. i wonder from a bank perspective how long that content -- that can continue unless you see a reflation trade. how much does that have to regain? jonathan: 27 on goldman, that's the headline we are not discussing when it comes to credit suisse. raising another $2 billion, taking another $600 million on the quarter, not pretty. tom: we don't editorialize, but to be kind, it was not american. jonathan: by definition, it wasn't, so i think you are
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>> absolutely their decisions ahead. >> the fed has the upper hand. >> we still have long-term structural forces that weigh against significant acceleration and growth. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide "bloomberg surveillance, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance -- for our audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance ." alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. we will have an ecb rate decision.
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