♪ >> we still have the long-term structural forces that weigh against significant acceleration in growth. >> all eyes are really on what constitutes substantial progress right now. >> the markets are so overbought, enthusiasm is so high, that i think we are approaching that stall speed for a little while. >> the market is going to have to navigate this transition from incredible monetary accommodation to thinking about what removing some of that accommodation is ultimately going to look like. >> where policy stance is today needs to be seen through, but there are some tough decisions ahead. >> this is "bloomberg

surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. it's a simulcast, radio, television. the gloom in those opening montage off the chart, i'm looking at dwyer talking about stall speed. the standard & poor's 500 on a daily basis craters, 1.32%. jonathan: any assessment at any time is relative to really good numbers we are posting already, and the belief that maybe those numbers are as good as it gets, but these numbers are still going to be great for the next several months. that's the reality of the situation in america. we are opening up more, getting back to business. the domestic story has been improving for a long time now. tom: we could sit on this, and on the wonderful research this morning as well. the nasdaq up 32. small caps up 0.8%. the vix, 18.19. all that matters is what steve

englander said, we are creating millions in jobs. jonathan: cumulative gains. even a we have seen the peak rate of growth this month, a be next month, the cumulative gains will be tremendous because unemployment is being driven lower and that inflation is going to be fueled by higher wages. that is what we are hoping for. that is the optimal outcome, that we get a tighter labor market and higher wages. tom: we know that the inequalities are here. they are tangible. the president has mentioned them in the politics of the moment. the fact is it is a boom economy for some. lisa: a boom economy for some, and this to me is sort of the interesting develop. you start out by saying the gloom crew is that. at the end of last year, the markets were kind of disconnected to the ongoing pain in the real economy. we are seeing better than expected data, better-than-expected earnings,

and perhaps people are resetting in markets in the economy is just taking off. tom: from the two of you, pick up on this. one of the observations off the map here, as we saw trudeau speaking at the president's summit, was really the partition of job formation in canada, which is real jobs growth, and the distinction in america as we are just catching up, replacing what we lost from the pandemic. jonathan: and the combination of job losses in america is very specific as well. isaac we saw a perfect example of that when wages surged higher because the lower earners came out of the workforce. we are going to see the opposite may be in the months to come. as for the gloom crew in this market, can you identify anyone on the silicide side that has changed their view of the year ahead they trim in this way? neither can i -- ahead in a tremendous way? neither can i.

mike wilson of morgan stanley stayed in and around the same number. we have seen the same 4300 from goldman. lisa: it is not just the headlines. it is also the composition of those gains. jonathan: the composition of the gains hasn't shifted. lisa: not that much. what has changed in the actual data we are getting? if anything, it is exceeding expectations. perhaps what people are accessing is the long-term view that inflation isn't going to materially shift higher as a result of some of the spending. tom: before we get to jim paulsen and a wonderful conversation on where we are, jon ferro, the salient point for me wednesday, thursday and friday is we are seeing in earnings reshuffle. joe feldman takes amazon and reaffirms a $4000 price target this morning. jonathan: here's the brief from jonathan golub at credit suisse. just dropped in. 25 point 7% of the s&p market cap is reporting q1 results. earnings have surpassed

estimates. 83% of companies topping projections. financials exceeding forecast by 37.4%. the rest of the market is beating by 13.4%. early decent q1. the individual that has pushed this story forward on the sell side has been mike wilson of morgan stanley. might not have moved is headline number for year-end on s&p, but where he has pulled back his on things like the small caps, talking about execution risk. execution risk after raising the bar, focused on input costs and the ability to actually meet demand a bigger way. lisa: the change to me is how long the cycle can run. i think that's where mike wilson has really shown a real brilliance. the idea of it runs hot, hotter than people were expecting, but shorter. tom: what is so oppressive -- so impressive here, talking about 42 people, all of them saying

three zip codes. we join jim paulsen from way outside this it code. what do you observe in the midwest? jim: well, i think the thing that impresses me the most is a little bit of what you are talking about, how much the economic reports coming out are just exceeding everyone's expectations. i looked at the bloomberg u.s. economic surprise index, and that has been in the upper quintile of its history, and there's nothing like that in its history even close to that. we have been chronically outpacing expectations. last week was a great example, when the retail numbers came out, everyone knew they were going to be a blowout, and yet, even though the estimates were really aggressive, we blew those numbers away.

jonathan was just talking about earnings. future one year estimates on wall street go up at about a 17 to percent to 18% annualized pace. when you are in the bottom quintile, they fall 5%. so earnings estimates are chronically being upscaled because we are just being bombarded with economic information that shows that conditions are better than we had thought, and if earnings estimates are going up, i think it is going to continue to drive target prices up as well. to me that is the biggest thing. we just can't catch up after going through a depression every bust with this health crisis to suddenly having a runaway bull market. no one can believe we could do that within 12 months. yet that is exactly what is happening. we just can't catch up to it. jonathan: as always on wall street, price sets narrative.

people keep extrapolating that out. but when you start to stall for a couple of weeks, a couple of months, people think there's a change in the trend. what does the price action tell you? jim: i would say there's less pause in the trend of the overall market then there is a go and a stop in the parts of it. i think that is sort of an interesting dynamic. i'm amazed by how much gloom there is about the market when the market is only a fraction of a percent away from all-time record highs. underneath that, but i see happening is if rates go up, tech stocks get hit, and the cyclicals and smalls are doing well, and then rates stall out, cyclicals and small's pullback, but tech comes back, it is a consistent force for the market when different parts are driving at different times. tom: we are showing, for radio, a chart of the s&p 500. it is a gloomy chart. lisa: to the moon, which raises

the question, you rightly pointed out we are talking about gloom with a 0.9% pullback in one day, the most in months, and yet people are concerned about it. is this enough to be buying given the fact that there are people saying there's going to be turbulence, who are paring some of their risk positioning? is this a place to continue to buy, or do you take a pause to think about how things are going to shake out in the next couple of months? jim: i fully expect we are going to get a correction in the overall s&p 500 this year, 10% to 15%. i don't know when that is going to happen. i think that is going to be really difficult to call that. i still suspect it may come from higher levels yet, but i don't know. here is what i would say. we have already had some pretty reasonable corrections going on in parts of this market, in small caps, cyclical sectors and emerging markets. i would take advantage of that. rather than run from those right

now, i would actually go to those if you haven't been there. take small caps. if i look at the relative performance of small-cap stocks historically, three things line up really well with it. real gdp growth, bond yields, and commodity prices. right now, when i look at everyone of those, real gdp growth, yields, and prices, i think almost everyone would say they are going to go higher in the next couple of years. and if they do, there's really good bets that small-cap stocks are going to outperform. here's an opportunity where they pulled back. you could say the same things about emerging markets or cyclical sectors. i think all of those things got more life to them on a relative basis over the next couple of years, even if we have to go through a correction phase. jonathan: 5% off the highs of the middle of march. always refreshing for someone to say i don't know once in a while on air. jim, it is great to catch up.

jim paulsen, the leasehold group chief investment -- the leasehold -- the leuthol group strategist. just a remarkable rally still. tom: the rally is there. let's be honest, we make jokes about it. a lot of people who participated in this great bull market, but i am stunned by the number of people that, in whatever way, really haven't participated in these gains. jonathan: totally. tom: there's a whole shtick here that i am triple leveraged all-cash. the allowed up -- the amount of gloom that has not allowed people to participate over 14 years has been extra mary. -- has been extraordinary. jonathan: do you remember that call that the recession was over?

the market just kept ripping. tom: last weekend, the gloom crew was out in big force. jonathan: alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures up seven on the s&p. we advanced 0.2%. heard on bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv, from a beautiful new york city, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ karina: with the first word news, and karina mitchell. in russia, jailed opposition leader alexey navalny is ending his under strike -- his hunger strike. navalny gave up the hunger strike after he was allowed access to act ou -- to outside doctors. president biden is proposing a capital gains tax almost twice as high as what it is now. when you add in existing surtax on investment income, those earning $1 million or more could pay as much as 43.4%. the president once the increase to help pay for a raft of social

spending that addresses longsta nding inequalities. bloomberg has learned the ecb will be deciding to slow there emerges the bond buying program in june. others want a more cautious approach. panasonic has agreed to buy american artificial intelligence software developer blue yonder. the price tag, 7.1 billion dollars. panasonic will fund the deal through cash and a bridge loan. the company already has a 20% stake in blue yonder. a spacex rocket bound for the international space station lifted off from kennedy space center in florida today. it is the first cruise trip -- first crewed trip using previously flown equipment. it is expected to dock tomorrow.

global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm karina mitchell. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> this is something biden had said all along he was going to try to do, and now he says i am going to try to do what i

promised i was going to do. in the market, if a 1% fall in stock prices is all you get from a major increase in capital gains taxes, that is not a big problem. jonathan: that's what you get from a proposal, not actually realizing that proposal. from new york city this morning, good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. up seven on the s&p. we events about 0.2 percent. yields higher by a single basis point, and euro-dollar through the week clinging onto $1.20. -- clinging onto 1.20 -- clinging onto one dollar 20 since. -- clinging onto $1.20. tom: lara davidson is with bloomberg tax. she last night moved the markets and moved the world of washington with reporting on a very large capital gains tax

increase. in your reporting and preparing the very important breaking news, what was the hardest thing to confirm within the reporting? laura: really, the hardest thing is will they go with that top rate north of 40%. that was really the issue. this legacy tax applied basically to all capital gains, so there were a lot of questions of do you stack those two rates to have a race that is north of 40%, and ultimately -- a rate that is north of 40%, and ultimately, that is what they are going to go with. this is something that democrats are interestingly pretty united on. republicans have said they are not going to vote for any tax increases. republicans really aren't part of the discussion here but going forward -- the discussion here. but going forward, democrats are generally for taxing at a lot higher rate.

we have seen members that can be a little more skittish, joe manchin, kyrsten sinema, they have not come out yet on this, but this is an area where we could see significant movement. these are all open to negotiation as this move through congress. democrats, at least directionally, or merging the same way. lisa: are these tax hikes owing to be linked to to the infrastructure plan, or attached to additional spending plans we are expecting in the upcoming months? laura: biden next week is expected to put out his american families plan. they are calling this a human infrastructure plan, for things like childcare and education. congress has not yet decided if they are going to move these two packages together or separately. this family plan is funded by individual tax increases. that is really a question for congress and really a question of can they get all of this stuff done in separate bills, or do they have to cram it all into

one big bill at the end of the year. tom: what would you presume what i will call financial democrats will do? let's start with chuck schumer of new york state and a global wall street. how do they respond to the size, the scale of this ask? laura: this is certainly an issue schumer is going to be hearing from on both sides. they are really looking at the comprehensive picture on the tax increases on corporations, the whole suite of tax increases on individuals. there will be higher income rates, more broad estate tax. there's also a discussion of what will happen with the state and local tax deduction, a big deal for new york, new jersey. this really gives people who want to get a bigger deduction more leverage to say we will pay a little bit higher rates, but we really want this deduction back. tom: our justin fox has a wonderful and comprehensive essay out on the confusion over our tax policy. do you presume that the

politicians in washington are clear thinking, or are they going to be confused as they get to the first tuesday of november over this issue? lara: i think it is fair to say on most issues, people -- laura: i think it is fair to say on most issues, people are more confused than not. but new york, gratz said that this s. -- new york democrats said that the people getting hurt by this s.a.l.t. tax are the middle class. this has been obscured in the data, but there's a very clear effect, and that is some than they will have to contend with as they continue to push for this. the politics are very tricky. lisa: what is the analogous historical period for these taxes? is there a time in history where we saw those taxes imposed, and then become insert growth or lack of growth in the economy that is being used to highlight this issue? laura: this is something we

really haven't seen yet, having capital gains and income taxes at the same rate. in the 19 teens, we basically haven't seen this in 100 years. republicans say this is going to dampen economic growth and discourage investment in the future. this is something democrats are going to be watching for economic indicators going forward. jonathan: i think a lot of people are trying to work out whether this would be retroactive to this year. would it be? laura: the administration and democrats in congress have said they prefer perspective tax policies, so think this would go into effect january 1 of 2022. howehing has been decided yet. jonathan: tremendous reporting, as always. thanks for catching up with us, laura davidson down in d.c., with some breaking market that shook up -- some breaking news that shook up this market a little bit. tom: there's no question about

it. we have avoided super league chat. let's change that right now. our good friend james o'neill, jim o'neill, writing with sir paul marshall a letter to joe glazer. to paraphrase a lengthy letter, "you seem to have been persistently out of touch with the spirit, purpose, and culture of manchester ownership. you should shift share ownership, commit 10 million pounds to charity." jon, this was biting, "you presume there was trust." the duo jonathan: jonathan:, longtime fans of the club -- jonathan: the duo, longtime fans of the club. the red knight consortium reportedly tried to buy the club back in 2010. you wonder whether that is back on the table. i have no idea. you wonder how the dominoes fall from here because i don't think

we are done yet for some of these big clubs. i will remind people, it is not over for the likes of barcelona, real madrid, ac milan. they have not given up completely on this. they are still trying to work out how to pick up the pieces. tom: the pieces in the coming days, let's go out one week, 10 days. can some of these teams be precluded from playing in europe? jonathan: i don't think that is the direction of travel right now. i think if they carry on pushing this issue, sure, we could end up there. but not now. what is interesting for me is how the likes of barcelona, real madrid, and ac milan reconvene, and what the next steps are, because the trajectory for spending for those clubs in europe is not sustainable. tom: the one thing i have learned out of this, and i am as ignorant on this as anybody, talking about the losses taken in the recent years by these teams. unreal. jonathan: lisa nailed it earlier this week, debt.

good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market improves a little bit, up 0.1% on the s&p, snapping back from yesterday's losses. selling the program hard, tom. beautiful. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪

(announcer) do you want to reduce stress? shed pounds? do you want to flatten your stomach? do all that and more in just 10 minutes a day with aerotrainer, the total body fitness solution that uses its revolutionary ergonomic design

to help you to maintain comfortable, correct form. that means better results in less time. you can do an uncomfortable, old-fashioned crunch or an aerotrainer super crunch. turn regular planks into turbo planks without getting down on the floor. and there are over 20 exercises to choose from. incredible for improving flexibility and perfect for enhancing yoga and pilates. and safe for all fitness levels. get gym results at home in just 10 minutes a day. no expensive machines, no expensive memberships. get off the floor with aerotrainer. go to aerotrainer.com to get yours now.

jonathan: lets with through some of the price action because as worldwide. in the united states equity futures positive four points, up about .1%. down yesterday, the biggest daily loss back to the middle of march. we take a bite out of the weekly loss going into the open. in the bond market, tends -- 1.5349 on tens. upside surprise out of the pmi data. u.s. pmi's coming in about one hour and 15 minutes. euro-dollar looks like this. euro-dollar clinging to a 1.20 handle through much of this week. that is where we stay. north of 1.20 on a single currency. north of 120 going into better

data out of the eurozone. that is what we are hoping in the weeks and months to come. tom: this is the theme this week. it is picked up by the union bank of switzerland, saying europe looks good. we checked in on a friday where we all readjust with evan brown of ubs at -- asset managers. let's go back to brown economics 101, you have to partition goods and services. you write that goods are strong but services will soak -- will show dispersion. discuss. evan: as we reopen, there are different paces of reopening across the world. the services sector in the u.s., that rebound is broadly priced at this point. what is becoming more priced is the european rebound. the vaccination pace is accelerating. we are going to get -- europe is

a few months behind the u.s. but that is the big story. that is why the euro is going up and that is why we see european assets outperforming. tom: your colleague luke kawa, eccentric on the toronto maple leafs, how dare i, i misspoke. the news is out of canada where it is said employment formation is different than in america. are we creating jobs or we -- or are we still in replacement mode? evan: we are still in replacement of pandemic mode. most of the job gains are in that in person service sector. we have a long way to go, but it is moving pretty fast. we will see one million job gains coming up frequently and a move towards full employment over the next 12 months or so. it is happening. it is happening a little bit quicker in canada and that is

why you see them as the leading central bank for moving policy accommodation. u.s., we are coming back. tom: on friday we have russia on the edge of tape, canada on the edge of tape. jonathan: the central banks have different reaction functions. the reaction function of the federal reserve is markedly different after last 12 months and -- over last 12 months. we could be at full employment at the turn of the year. what a recovery we are discussing. this concept of peak growth, there has been a massive debate in markets over the last couple of weeks, what is more important from your standpoint for capital allocations. peak growth or cumulative improvements? evan: that is a great question. cumulative improvement, when we talk about cumulative improvement, europe is in a deeper hole, has a larger output

gap, has been hit harder by covid. that output gap will close more quickly. because of that deeper hole. that is why we are in this view that europe can outperform on an asset price perspective, that is a rebound that is not price. jonathan: they have a longer runway and you want to play this through equities and the fx channel too? evan: the cleanest way to do fx is relative growth differentials , europe versus u.s. is more of a value versus growth story. european equity should outperform. one thing is that for me -- broadly in line with what biden has proposed.

the market is clearly vulnerable to headlines and those are coming. in europe, you do not have the tax headlines and you politically see a move which could set the stage for more expansive fiscal policy going forward. lisa: there is a controversial premise underpinning your comments which is markets have already priced in the entirety of policy support in the united states, of not only the $1.9 trillion stimulus but any additional stimulus plans. you put in your report that proposed policies would be more beneficial for the u.s. economy than u.s. markets. how widely how do you think that believe is or is this somewhat of a contrarian view? evan: i think people are getting more excited about this rotation out of the u.s.. i do not think it is solely embraced at this point. we have had the pure fiscal.

the upcoming fiscal is going to be sweet and bitter. we will get the tax hikes with the spending. the spending is set up over a number of years. the u.s. story gets more complicated from an equity point of view. the scene yesterday is not quite priced on the u.s. side. europe, we have been in peak pessimism. it is beginning to heal. as much as people are warming to the story, it is not fully priced in. jonathan: there is -- lisa: there is a difference between underperformance and losing value. do you think the u.s. and riskier assets are poised to lose value or simply underperform europe in areas that are further behind in their recovery? evan: i do not think losing value, just a much slower pace of returns, which is not exactly controversial. we have had a 10% or 11% gain in

the s&p 500. we can expect we'll see less upside going forward. we are still moving through this recovery, we are still seeing peak growth. the pace of change is moderating in growth and will do so in asset markets. as you move from early to mid cycle in the u.s., the slower pace of return has a lot more room in the rest of the world. tom: is cash and asset? evan: cash is certainly an asset . we have seen it before. bonds and equities can selloff at the same time. if we get into a world where we do not just have this q2 balance of inflation that everyone is expecting, the question is is it transitory or is it more sustained. if it does turn out to be more sustained, which we are fairly -- we are very open-minded to come you could be in a situation where the fed -- that is the

hiking pace. then you have the pressure of bonds selling off an equity selling off at the same time. that could get ugly. in that situation you want to have adequate exposure to cash. i do not think it is the time right now but down the road that is the rest. jonathan: always great to get your views. my best to the team. evan brown, ubs asset management head of multi-asset strategy. in the partnership with the u.s. and europe, which has gotten a load more attention in the last several weeks as we start to make progress on the vaccine front, in the euro zone. tom: we started talking about emerging markets. you wonder, do we shift back to where we were six months ago? part of that is the percolation in europe your -- in europe. jonathan: one thing that has shifted is the move away from the one-way global growth trade. there are so much more

dispersion worldwide, not just the divergence between europe and the u.s. through q1, but elsewhere outside of europe. lisa: there was also complacency we were going to exit the pandemic route -- exit the pandemic with relative ease. that is being called into question by the nature of the infections. we are talking about india and brazil. the international airline association coming out and increasing their potential losses for the airlines this year. there is a feeling that these losses will be ongoing that has not been adequately figure four. it is a more complicated recovery than just synchronized. jonathan: could not agree with you more. the airline business this week has captured the story so well, between a domestic story, which has recovered fast on the leisure side, and the international story, including big business, which continues to struggle. tom: you put out the news on a

friday afternoon when nobody is paying attention like this news fast on surveillance. -- this snooze-fest on surveillance. the question is what international travel authorities do given india. jonathan: at the same time we need guidance from the cdc about what you can do if you have been vaccinated. can you travel? tom: with the space program, the crew two going up has been vaccinated. the crew coming down from the space station has to quarantine because they have not been vaccinated. lisa: quarantine from what? the space station? in case there anyone there with covid? jonathan: sitting here laughing. later on this evening americans across the country will go out for dinner. they will walk around outside and will get strange looks because they have amassed on or have not got a mask on. then they will go inside and take the maks off.

many of those have been vaccinated. hardly anyone can reconcile why they are allowed to go inside and take the masks off and why they are getting funny looks if they cannot where the masks outside. lisa: is a tricky issue. the science suggests you can take the mask off and do your business. the anecdote about a nursing home where there are people unvaccinated who worked there and they infected residents who were vaccinated and one of them died raises questions about the protection, raises questions about the ability to have the virus and pass it on. there are still unknown scientifically. the question is where do you err in the risk spectrum. to say the risk is people do not want to get vaccinated -- jonathan: the issue is we do not want the scientists involved in ethics. the scientists need to tell us what they know and leave the ethics elsewhere.

tom: we may get it today. i think you make some good points. the day is young. jonathan: the day is young. you have been on fire today. i will see later on tonight. i am sure you will have a long one. where are you drinking tonight? tom: home. i have the tang going. astronauts, their first nap is 2:00 p.m. karina: wealthy americans may want to brace themselves. bloomberg has learned president biden wants to almost double the capital gains tax for those making $1 million and more. the new top rate could be as high as 43.4%. the proposal could reverse a long-standing revision of the tax code that taxes returns on investment at a lower rate on labor. the capital gains tax hike is

blamed in part for driving down bitcoin for the seventh time in eight days. the currency dropped below the benchmark. bitcoin set a record of almost 65,000 on april 14. u.s. vaccine experts meet later today to review johnson & johnson covid-19 shot. it has been on hold for 10 days after several cases of rare blood clots. the panel of experts advises the cdc. the members will debate whether it should resume in the u.s.. american express boasted revenues that missed estimates. still, american express was encouraged by lower-than-expected losses on its loans which allow the company to free up more than $1 billion in reserves it had previously set aside. there is a sign intel is using market share to rivals for designing their own components. a drop in data center revenue plus a decline in profit margins. meanwhile the pc business performed better.

global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am karina mitchell. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> if you look at all of the data points in any country in the last 100 years, when the money supply is at that level,

you have inflation within a year to after the massive increases. tom: mr. pagliuca of boston and the celtics and the disaster as seen why the fenway group and the rest. wall street week with stephen pagliuca, look for that coming up. this is really important. david rich was at mount sinai and his leadership was out fright in the pandemic with the sirens on the upper eastside with the agony of their staff getting through the last 14 months. now the celebration we are beginning to see. things are better -- things are

"almost over." what is the almost overt measurement as we go into a wonderful spring weekend. can you call the pandemic ending soon? dr. reich: i am not that optimistic, but we are moving in a great direction. the peak we saw in the new york region has gradually come down. it is coming down at a much slower rate than what we see previously. what we are seeing in our health system is now there are between 200 and 250 patients. the number varies day by day. the peak was somewhat over 500 in january. it is a slow decline but we are learning to manage and live with this disease in our health system as we try to do everything else to maintain the health of new yorkers. lisa: we have been talking about cdc guidance around people that have been vaccinated and

guidance of what they can and cannot safely do. there's a question of whether their decision is being driven from a scientific basis or a political basis to get people to do things in a certain way, to message there is not a bifurcation in the haves and have-nots. what is your view on sciences role based on dictating, as far as the science and the political ethical methods going on. lisa: the role of science -- dr. reich: the role of science is to provide data, but there is a branch of medicine, medical ethics, that has very important things to say. i believe medical science, medical ethics, can inform public health officials, including the cdc as they make important decisions. i was impressed by reading the new york times article yesterday about the concept of a two out of three rule where we consider settings, vaccination status,

masking, and different ways we can move forward. i suspect we will see evolution in the way our states and the federal guidelines people all as a greater proportion of the population is vaccinated. tom: i have to go to your direct skill because it is really important right now. this is the hematology of thomas jefferson foundation. your opinion on the blood study of the johnson & johnson vaccine? dr. reich: the blood -- tom: the clotting worries, my fault. dr. reich: this is a very rare phenomenon. it is interesting as a cardiac anesthesiologist, we know a very it of this type of problem very well, syndrome which is where a drug we use to thin the blood to prevent clots to facilitate heart surgery causes a rare

reaction, which is the same thing, antibodies to a type of receptor. when that happens, it is a paradoxical thing because it causes clots, as we have seen very severe clots in the brain, and potentially in other parts of the body, but it is so exceedingly rare that i am optimistic the cdc, the group that advises immunization, will proceed with a warning saying there is a very rare risk, but the real risk of dying from covid probably vastly outweighs the risk of this very rare problem, perhaps by one million fold. we have to see exactly what the scientists that advise the cdc come up with. tom: in the times of diphtheria and typhoid we just said shut up

and take the vaccine. what will be your prescription for our viewers and listeners once we get done with the cdc study? dr. reich: as someone who has followed this, i am an advocate for vaccination. i think although it is always challenging a society to make things mandatory, perhaps in certain employment settings, especially where there is higher risk, we may decide mandatory vaccination is a reasonable thing to do in certain circumstances. already certain educational institutions are thinking about what it means to come back on campus for students, and requiring vaccination for all students. tom: thank you so much. dr. reich with mount sinai and his expertise on hematology. it is great to speak to these people with expertise. lisa: it highlights we are in the fastest and broadest

experiment in medical history. you are right to emphasize the incredible excess behind the vaccine. we can see the success being born out in earnings. i want to bring up tidbits from earnings. american express saying vaccinations are beginning to boost travel. bank of america has done incredible work sifting through some of the credit card spending and how much it is picking up as people get vaccinated. kimberly-clark, remember when they surged because everybody was hoarding toilet paper -- it turns out people do not need that much toilet paper because they're not worried about armageddon. toilet paper sales are plunging. kimberly-clark is cutting their forecast as a result of this. it shows the reverse of what we saw during the pandemic. tom: go to cash. lisa: go to toilet paper. you're going to store it with your lumber. tom: a stronger euro, that means weaker dollar as well. much more coming up through the

day. i said is is -- i said it is a snooze, it is not a snooze-fest. lisa: i find this a fascinating inflection point because we are dealing with bond yields that have gone down dramatically from their peak point. this idea of have we reached peak optimism of u.s. exceptionalism. that is the issue people are facing as they try to price in because earnings have been way better than expected. the economic data better than expected. what are people going off of? tom: evan brown underscoring their look to europe as well. we will look to climate change this afternoon. john kerry has been on a plane and zooming with the leaders of the world. a leader summit for the president of the united states. his present -- his special presidential envoy will speak to david westin. look for that this afternoon at the 3:00 hour. red and green on the screen with

a little bit of an upside tilt. i must draw your attention to the real yield. you'll be able to see that this afternoon and out on digital media later today. good morning. ♪

it's moving day. and while her friends are doing the heavy lifting, jess is busy moving her xfinity internet and tv services. it only takes about a minute. wait, a minute? but what have you been doing for the last two hours? ...delegating? oh, good one. move your xfinity services without breaking a sweat. xfinity makes moving easy. go online to transfer your services in about a minute. get started today. (woman) i don't want to look like this anymore.

(man) what is happening to my body? (woman) why can't i lose weight? (announcer) you may be suffering from insulin resistance. measure your waist. females measuring more than 35 inches and males measuring more than 40 inches may have insulin resistance. to learn how to reverse insulin resistance and lose weight effectively, go online to golo.com. once again, that's golo.com.

♪ jonathan: from new york city for

our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. the countdown to the open starts right now. equity futures positive about .1%. we begin with the big issue. president biden seeking to double the capital gains tax. >> the market did not respond well. >> it is certainly not a high enough rate to derail the recovery. >> equity sentiment does appear to be stretched. >> it makes perfect sense you are seeing indigestion. >> it is not unexpected. >> when you have stimulus of this size around the world there is definitely taxes coming down the line. >> we ran up deficits. >> at some point this needs to be financed. >> over the long-term it should not have too much of an effect. >> i do not think you will see the equity market recovery. jonathan: that is the debate.