tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg April 23, 2021 4:30pm-5:00pm EDT
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and bloomberg's world headquarters. romaine: we take a look at where financial markets ended the day. s&p 500 rallies into the weekend. the question is, "what'd you miss?" caroline: not missing stock gains boosted by positive data from u.s. housing, new sales rebounding in march and highest now since 2006, the housing market well back on track. lumber prices hitting fresh record highs as demand remains intact as we had to the summer months. the recovery not equal when it comes to housing. renters especially minority groups hit hardest by the pandemic, still struggling. before we get to that, let's start with the numbers and housing data. romaine: it was a jaw-dropping number. one million annual pace, of new single-family home purchases a
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20 point jump from the previous month. and you talk about the revision from the month prior, that also got revised up. we consistently talk about this idea the home market is so red hot, and overbuilt or oversold or overbought. and that it has to come back down to earth and we are not seeing that, no sign of it yet. caroline: for now, demand steadfast and the supply more of an issue. 2006, who would have thought it? romaine: let's not talk about 2006. also we talk about input prices that goes into all of this and this has been a big deal. we have talked about the price of lumber going up. you start to wonder whether that has an effect? we know it is starting to affect the final price of homes, but so far investors or purchasers have not balked yet. let's bring in our next guest, wells fargo senior economist to
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talk about what is going on in the housing market and economy. mark, when you look at some data we have been getting out of the housing market, in light of the covid crisis and economic recession, how resilience? can you talk more about resiliency of that market and whether you see it persistent? >> when you think about what is happened with housing and covid, covid increased demand for housing. people spend more time indoors and are spending more time indoors and wanted more space. a lot of people renting found they needed to buy something. even before the economy began to come back we darted to see the demand for housing pick up in a big way. on the supply side, folks you might've thought about selling their home were reluctant to do so. most homeowners are older and susceptible to covid and they do not want to have people coming in their house. they did not put their houses on the market and also found in the past may have thought they had too much space, since they were
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spending time indoors, they needed more space. so they were less interested in selling. we have had this supply and demand imbalance that led to a dramatic increase in home prices. caroline: supply-demand imbalance hitting sales of existing homes which fell in march because there is not enough to buy. but if you are buying them you are bidding higher prices than asking. new home sales, how are builders managing to keep up with demand at the moment? why did we see such jump in march? >> we saw jump in march because we saw when we saw one week ago elise had housing start numbers, housing completions increased in march. we had bad weather in the south in february. that put builders behind. we had a surge in completions so builders have a product to sell. if you look at home sales by region, new home sales rose 40% in the south and 30% in the midwest, and those were parts of the country impacted by extreme
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weather in february. given the bounce back we have seen, demand is so strong, builders could sell virtually anything they could build now. many of them are having to limit their cells. when it -- sales. when they opened a new community they're limiting sales to three or four homes per month because they do not want to sell a home and find lumber prices jump 30% and not be able to deliver the price they sold on. romaine: how much our demographic changes now going on in our society? you have millennials reaching and h were a lot of folks tend by homes. and at the lower end of the spectrum with the next generation, they are coming into adulthood, how much of that is affecting the market? >> that is a big part of it. it gets into the supply-demand imbalance. baby boomers are the ones sitting a lot of existing homes. you would've thought they would downsize and move into a condo
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or smaller home or relocating to florida or arizona, but a lot are staying put. so we have these millennials, a rush of the lineal's having babies and getting married and trying to buy their first house. there are not that many sellers. so that led to this dramatic increase in home prices. the other thing we are seeing is a migration away from some dense , globally connected cities like new york, san francisco, and los angeles. a lot of folks are moving to the interior of the country. out west they're moving to places like salt lake city. homes in salt lake city stand the market for six days and most homes are selling well above asking prices, in one of the hottest housing markets in the country. you see that in other parts of the country. in the south a lot of folks are moving out of new york and to my happy -- to miami or tampa, charlotte, nashville. although cities have seen home prices go up dramatically -- all of those cities have seen home
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prices go up dramatically. folks coming from new york, and those cities houses look like a bargain. but people living in the cities are seeing prices rising dramatically. caroline: what about new york homes left behind? are people snapping them up as people exit and want to go to differ parts of the country? what does that look like for existing, and are their new homes being built in manhattan? for those areas you mention, l.a., new york, what happens there? >> they are not building single-family homes in new york city or at least in manhattan. and the large cities most folks leaving manhattan are not going too far, they're going to the suburbs. in the suburbs of new york the demand for housing is very strong. in manhattan we have seen apartments vacated early in the pandemic, a lot of young folks coming back into apartments. when you look at the clock market, we have seen investors go into the -- into the co-op market -- when you look at the co-op market, we have seen
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investors go and and in some cases turn them into short-term rentals with airbnb or dro. -- bbro. the four cell market in manhattan has weakened, kenneth -- for sale market in manhattan has weakened, and in l.a., and san francisco. but in vallejo, outside san francisco, it is one of the hottest housing markets in the country. romaine: mark, we appreciate you joining us from wells fargo, senior economist, talking about the housing market. we also talked earlier this week about the average price for home going up by $24,000 solely due to the price of lumber. we will dig into the lumber trade which shows how extreme shortages have become. this is bloomberg. ♪
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romaine: we are focused on housing, and data that came out this morning helping to drive gains in the stock market today. the hottest area of the market now is cryptocurrencies. [laughter] i am joking. caroline: that, and lumber. crypto, time to shine come out now. where it that, is lumber. the record high of the record high of the record high, of three had a percent over the last couple of years after doing nothing for the first year of the chart. what a whipsaw, pun, supply you cannot get it fast enough.
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will we want to renovate our homes and buy new ones. romaine: let's bring in our bloomberg news to make sense of it. all week long we have had guests talking about aspects of the lumber market and the lumber trade. the general consensus, there is no consensus but some analysts saying we could see $1000 persist well into the end of the air and other saying we could pull back to $600 or $500, what is the consensus among folks you are talking to? >> almost every analyst i have spoken with does not expect prices to start coming down, until later this year, after the pink -- peak building season of spring and summer. one analyst today is the first to says he thinks prices could level out in the summer as building may slow down in the u.s. because of the heat and holidays. in general, most people i speak to are not expecting any
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reprieve until they get through this busy season. that means mills r going to have to pump out more and more products as fast as they can. inventories are not expected to build up until later this year. caroline: you have written an amazing story today, to highlight how extraordinary the market is now. the lumber trade, tell us, lumber yards have already bought timber, are selling it back to people they got it from? >> that's right. i know of one confirmed case at this point. the way wood products are sold is, mills make the product and sell to distributors, the middleman, who sell to lori art. lumber you -- who sell to lumber yard. lumber yards sell to builders. materials exchange, trading platform for wood products, saw deal recently, that had never been seen before by anyone i
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have spoken with. that was, a liver yard selling oriented strand board, osb -- a lumberyard selling oriented strand board, osb, lower-cost plywood used to make floors, walls, rows of houses. and a truckload was sold to a distributor. that is what traders are calling a supply chain reversal. everyone i spoke with had never seen anything like that before. the reason this happened is because, there are supply shortages for building materials now. a builder cannot frame a house and wait 3, 6 weeks for osb to arrive, you cannot leave it out to the elements and wait for windows and roofing to arise -- arrive. builders are starting to postpone some projects. this means that some lumber
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yards are finding themselves with excess inventory. that is what happened in this case. caroline: amazing reporting. once-in-a-lifetime for you on the first time we have seen at and we love that your breaking it with us. thank you and go and read her story on the terminal and online. the other side of the story, not everyone is winning. goldman has been teaming up with rent reporting platform to create more equal access to housing. next, more on the partnership that willefits to resis of goldman properties nationwide. stay with us for that interview. this is bloomberg. ♪
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caroline: we have been talking about skyrocketing home sales and builders doing well, and those selling houses doing well. but not everyone is in this booming housing element. joining us to look at inequality going on, if you are a renter and those in the lower income bracket, the cofounder of a fintech company reporting rental data to build tenants' credit scores. along with the global head of
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sustainability and asset management at goldman sachs. how goldman is working to build this partnership to get people's credit scores more transparent, working with esusu. taylor: how is what you are doing helping include more people when it comes to financial access to the housing market? >> if you look at the crisis, 45 million people in the united states are out of credit score. what we are doing is reporting on time rental payments into the credit agencies, experian, equifax and transunion. residents can establish or improve credit score. if you have a poor credit score it can cost you a quarter million dollars over a lifetime. taylor: why did you form this partnership with goldman to reach more communities? >> it is a key part of our sustainability effort.
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we work around climate transition and inclusive growth. financial health of households in the u.s. is a key part of that. if you do not have a credit score or do not have the credit score you deserve that reflects your financial activities, you are the big disadvantage. so for tenants in our building who have the benefit of what esusu is providing, that benefit to other largest payment every month to their credit score and raise their credit score, in the case of 80% of households that report rent, that is a many foot difference for families. romaine: when we talk about this platform, and how it allows on the renter side, folks to create a platform where they can sell themselves to landlords in a way that is difficult through the normal system. is the tech process here, does
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that make it easier for the consumer? i see the benefit to the landlord and that side of the equation, but what about the consumer? >> a fantastic question. we plug into the system of record, the accounting system of the landlord, and report that data. when you think about residents, we also offer them a mobile application where they can check their on-time credit scores every month. then they also confirm if the rent is paid. it is not only benefit for that landlord for a payment, also fundamental to talk about residents. because if you have a poor credit score, you cannot get a home, right? so we are refocusing on the residents, and financial access and inclusion. caroline: trying to break that this is cycle. this was tried out in 2019 and what did you learn through the
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going through that process how it helped as a landlord for goldman? >> we learned the partnership in 2019 due to a credit builders alliance, we learned this makes a big difference. 80% of renters able to avail themselves of this benefit increase credit scores. it is important and we touched on ways this has been impactful and great for tenants. this is also the right thing to do. from a risk management perspective, if we are judging credit worthiness of individuals and families, without the most significant payment they make every month, it is an incomplete picture, and we are not judging them appropriately. the ability to get it right, and for most of these individuals and families with the higher score, is important for what that unlocks. your fica score is a pathway to a homeownership, or getting a mortgage and a loan that can
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help you start a business. it is not just the higher fica score, it is the opportunities that it unlocks. taylor: covid-19 is not over. what are the challenges you are still seeing among homeowners, or renters, amid the pandemic? >> a lot of things we are seeing, renters can afford to pay rent. the last data we see is 66% of residents are risk of not making their on-time rent payment and one of the things we have done is created a separate fund where we offer grants to residents. when they cannot pay the rent, it pays their rent to the landlord. this is helping us as a society. it is keeping working families in homes, essential during dire times. taylor: we have been doing a lot
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of reporting here on what is wrong with the fica score. is there a financial system that can function without it? how can we start to break down the system as it exists if there are some issues with it? >> and is a great question and i think it is a couple of things. one, we need to make the fico system more robust. what this partnership is doing and what we need to do is to get all the data we need, utility data and rental data, and a pain a broader picture. as far as we can go at fico, and credit scores, that is one of dozens and hundreds of data points we take into account, when we think about an individual's credit worthiness and their ability to access and use financial products. one, understanding fico is not
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complete and not perfect, but it is only one piece of the puzzle and so much more data we can be leveraging. romaine: i want to ask about your business and the future for esusu. this is a great partnership you have with goldman. a lot of people look at your company and say, this could be something bigger and they want to know, what do you plan to do next? >> right now we are reporting on time rental data into credit agencies. step two is housing for renters at risk. the other is how come he led to residents -- the other is, how can we lend to residents so they are not evicted? the next, how do we make the more financially eligible? we want to be the standard for real estate impacted across the board in the united states. there's a big gap now where we cannot understand the true picture of residents across-the-board. we are changing that and
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capturing a plethora of data. and over $4 trillion in capital. caroline: an amazing fund you are setting up at a fascinating partnership. to come back -- do come back. and thanks for help bringing the interview and the exclusive on that is. romaine: we were awaiting word on the cdc advisory panel, reaffirming the vaccine for johnson & johnson. this is an advisory, of cdc. you still need a final signoff by cdc as well as fda. usually the advisory panel's word is followed by the full agency. caroline: europe has already
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