on what constitutes substantial progress right now. >> does not translate into a sustained increase in demand? that is what the fed is watching for as well. >> this is bloomberg surveillance. jonathan: what a week we have coming up. from new york city, good morning, good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance. i am jonathan ferro. equity futures down five or six points. this week is loaded. tom: june is more important. let me get everybody's attention. j.p. morgan goes from 9.5 to 10% gdp.

everybody's statistics are coming higher. jonathan: the president's address to congress later this week as well. tom: $1.2 trillion in revenues. amazon, microsoft, google, and apple. i am usually not big on this but i must omit, the restatement of the profitability -- admit, the restatement of the profitability of american technology. lisa: that was quite a way to start. a lot of people are looking at any indication of the taper debate. a lot of economists are expecting the fed to taper. the fed seems to be indicating. they may indicate just how much their willing to shift -- they are willing to shift position.

jonathan: from new york city this morning, here is how we start things. s&p 500 futures look a little like this. into the bond market, yields are higher. they are up two basis points. lisa: the idea is the vaccination pace seems to be picking up in europe. the upside surprise potentially greatly exceeds that in the u.s. right now. durable goods in the u.s., 8:30 a.m. the expectation is for a slow down. people are looking for how many big-ticket items, how much companies are willing to invest.

today, 11:30 a.m., we get a $60 billion two-year sale from the u.s. treasury department. at 1:00, five year notes. the key question is, when does the fed hike rates? a lot of people predict they will hike rates sooner. after the market closes, we get the kickoff to the big tech earnings. tesla, whether they make good on that. we will be discussing the investment in bitcoin. elon musk will be holding -- hosting saturday night live this week. tom: lisa had a great chart today. copper is running away. she put that out on twitter. i want to make clear that it is the surveillance news fast.

surveillance newsfest. will you explain what in god's name they are doing? jonathan: i have no idea. what is the date? it is not april 1. can you imagine what martin gilbert is thinking right now? this was his old baby. tom: it has been a train wreck, hemorrhaging $10 billion -- $10 million in assets. jonathan: according to the daily mirror -- there was the big talk . next big move, who has enough

money to buy the club and what do they want for? that story is a little bit vague. lisa: i think the idea that u.s. investors are going to be less interested in the premier league. the fans have spoken and they do not want diminished competition. jonathan: i would not be too hasty on that front. we have not heard from barcelona real madrid about what they are going to do next. they have not officially pulled out of this effort yet. 6:05. bnp paribas chief economist.

if you have to have a preview of one, what would you pick? >> i would say on that fed side, this is as well telegraphed meeting as we can get. i think all eyes are on the president. everything from infrastructure -- tom: i love you are -- i love your backdrop. it seems like you are in the endeavor space capsule. i want to talk about the ratcheting up of gdp expectations. is gdp catching up with the zeitgeist? or are we behind? >> recent forecasts are catching up.

it is going to be a great looking couple of months. the fed has said they will look past that. the real question is, beyond summer, how long will this sustain itself? lisa: there is a question of the inflationary aspects that we see. we are seeing copper search the highest levels since 2011. how can we call this transitory if it seems to have legs? daniel: i think that is the big question. prices are going up. we saw a strong march inflation print. is this all price increases that are a one off driven by the

supply chain issues. is this going to work itself out? is this going to change expectation? jonathan: the story outside the labor market is in the airline situations. lufthansa leading nicely. the parent company of british airways doing nicely as well. the eu commission president speaking to the new york times. tom: she is just picking it up from jon ferro. i know we talked about singapore and hong kong. do you think it is feasible? you are the only one of us who

has actually traveled. jonathan: can we have a system in place, some kind of vaccine passport certificate system in place that every country understands? look at the specific words the eu commission later actually used. she is talking about vaccines accepted in the eu and the u.s.. if you have had the astrazeneca vaccine in europe, can you travel to the u.s.? lisa: there is the question from the health perspective. daniel, just to wrap up with you, how much can the u.s. accelerate without the rest of the world joining? given the fact that we are

seeing the acceleration in india and brazil. daniel: the acceleration is going to be broader based. the u.s. is the vanguard here. one of our key messages that europe is not far behind in terms of vaccination. they are working out there supply chain -- their supply chain issues. they will see a nice reopening. it is going to be broader based. the question is, how will it sustain itself beyond a v-shaped recovery? is this the really the start of

something new? jonathan: the idea that europe could be stuck at zero for another cycle is not unthinkable. that is what is crazy about what is happening right now. tom: europe is one of those regions. it is not the bet into q2 but the complete lack of visibility into q3 or q4. lisa mentioned india and the challenges there. it is such an interesting stew. it is why i go back towards these earnings. talk 10% real gdp, you have to look at these juggernauts. they actually matter this time around. jonathan: some convergence maybe . that is captured by the 121 handled by the euro-dollar. lisa: i do wonder how much that

could be stymied. jonathan: from new york city this morning, good monday morning. i am jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg surveillance. ♪ >> in india, coronavirus infections hitting record highs. the government reported 352,000 new cases. crowded hospitals are turning away patients because they are running out of oxygen and beds. european union is set to allow american tourists to visit this summer if they have been vaccinated. the president of the european commission tells the new york times americans need vaccines

approved. the fed is expected to taper its bond buying program under the fourth quarter. the result is a hawkish shift from march when more economists thought tapering would happen next year. the world's largest digital currency -- rising on most 10%. china's government -- beijing is becoming increasingly concerned over the growing influence of tech companies such as alibaba.

global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we have penciled in 7% or 8% growth. >> i am bullish on the rebound but i know we have a long way to go before the job is complete. >> there is no textbook for this. you do not want to be too preemptive, but i do not want to be so reactive. >> it is too early to talk about changing monetary policy while we are still in the pandemic tom no -- pandemic tunnel. ♪

jonathan: from new york city this morning, i am jonathan ferro. going into the opening bell, about three hours away, but it is never too early to check. had a little look at 121 on friday. unchanged. bond market, yields up a couple of basis points. tom keene will have a special on wednesday. i cannot wait, tom. carolyn hyde is somewhere just crying watching this.

tom: let's tea up the president 's speech. buried in paragraph 42, the fear of moderates. there is that pylon affect. when you are an incumbent and you have these political pressures to add things on. >> joe biden's first 100 days has been a remarkable sponsor to covid. -- response to covid. tom: incremental big. >> no one is standing back and saying, hold on a second, except for people like joe manchin. tom: moderate democrats. will he speak to them this week? coxey is going to try wednesday

night and try to explain -- he is going to try wednesday night and try to explain. jonathan: he is talking about uniting the country. not talking about uniting congress anymore. coley will -- four out of 10 democrats, two out of three independents are willing to compromise on this bill. marty: it is very important. that is consistent with polling the last decade. they want congress to work together, republicans and democrats. joe biden said that is what he wanted to do when he came into office. but he is going full speed ahead even without republicans. the polling shows that is not the way americans wanted to go. jonathan: that is the difference

here. in the previous bill, there was a ton of support across parties. tom: marty and i lived the advent of the highway system across america. that is what eisenhower had. where is the vision? marty: the vision is what joe biden explains, this is a moment in time where america can go big on infrastructure, broadband, and a whole host of things that don't normally -- are not normally considered infrastructure. he wants america to do that now and interest rates are at historic lows. lisa: i cannot keep track of all of the proposals coming out. how realistic is any of this given the fact the opposition

does not just come from the republicans but also from key democrats? chuck schumer, for example, without a repeal -- marty: it is a tremendous hurdle that his team will have to get past. as you mentioned, chuck schumer is from new york. new york is the center of the financial industry and capital gains doubling is something his constituency is not going to be in favor of. tom: he has a romance about unions, romance about scranton, pennsylvania. they are worried about 2022. who is is core constituency? marty: you make a great point. it has gotten diluted over the

years. whether he can maintain the position in the face of joe biden's agenda is something we will find out. jonathan: good to catch up, as always. lindsey graham on fox news sunday, there is a deal to be done on infrastructure without a corporate tax hike. he believes it pays for itself over time. tom: this is really important in terms of the politics. can we pay for this over time? decades and decades and decades. jonathan: the most important point is that the unified response of the electorate around the previous spending bill was pretty strong. it is not this time around. if the president moves the

goalpost away from uniting the country, what does he do now? move the post back? four out of 10 democrats want to compromise. tom: that is the dispersion of american politics. it is a lot closer than people think. you got the quote of the morning. dispersion matters. there is no question about that. jonathan: do you know how hard that is to do? tom: looks like welsh to me. jonathan: why did they do that? is it serious? lisa: they said it was a sign of their unified approach. i was looking at all of the failed rebranding effort.

a member when radioshack became the shack? jonathan: trying to connect with the youth. isn't that how 65-year-olds text each other? let me throw some numbers that you, totally random. lisa: i think it will be a mockery. i am cool, kids. i am one of you. jonathan: that is how tom messages me, without vowels. tom: i am just asking for transitory. jonathan: have a drink, tom. enjoy yourself. the president addressing congress this coming wednesday. the chairman of the federal reserve. amazon earnings on deck as well. did i miss anything? i think i did.

lisa: a lot of gdp. jonathan: the council on foreign relations president. this is bloomberg surveillance. ♪

>> asia is core to our business.

>> we are investing in the rest of asia as well. >> we see company after company committing to net zero. >> we have strong positions in singapore and hong kong.

jonathan: from eric city this morning -- from new york city this morning, this is bloomberg surveillance. futures down around three or four points. nice move into the close on friday. the weekly loss really small to close out the week. apple and amazon earnings later this week. lisa went to the supply earlier this morning. your 10 year yield up a couple of basis points. after three straight weeks of gains, yields are lower.

we talked about how small-cap stocks in the middle of march and 10-year gilts topped out at the -- yields topped out at the end of march. copper is up by about 25.5%. taking out the february high. you certainly see it in copper. highs we have not seen since july of 2011. tom: we see it in lumber and we see it in corn. right now, richard haass joins us. my book of the summer last year and still hugely important. the world, a brief introduction.

it is extremely important. the first 100 pages truly classic. i love what you have done. as you look back on history and our concert power. how do we get back from williamsons washington consensus to a more rigid power? richard: current international arrangements are coming up short. we need to think of some ways to work with countries that are diverse from this. we still have to work together, whether it is on climate change, cyberspace, proliferation. right now, there is a big gap between where we are in every

single one of those domains. tom: the 100 years of the council on foreign relations. it is really, really interesting. in the arch of the 100 years, -- how do we do a concert power when we have a four year timeframe and president xi has a many decade timeframe? richard: each country has its own system and strengths and weaknesses. china's weakness is that it is hard to challenge orthodoxy. when there were mistakes made, it is hard to correct those mistakes. china is committed in certain directions and we will see how it works out. there is repression at home. they are pushing out against the

world. can they continue to benefit from economic interaction at the same time they are alienating much of the world by their more assertive foreign policy? we have our political weaknesses and political division and there are questions on how well we can perform over time. taking a step back, the real question is whether the u.s. and china can figure out a way to find areas of cooperation against the backdrop of a competitive relationship. lisa: people are saying the only way the u.s. can do this is to get a group of allies on board in terms of how it encounters china. how is biden doing with respect to unifying the allies? richard: we have hurt ourselves by not getting involved in regional economic arrangements.

that is a major source of potential leverage. the instinct of this president is to work with allies. japan, south korea, india. we have hurt ourselves with india because of our slow response on the vaccine. the europeans have gone their own way with their own economic and financial arrangements. the rhetoric has been better than the reality. lisa: i am glad that you brought up india. why hasn't the u.s. gone more aggressive to help india? how much has that setback the united states and what is the push-pull in terms of why the u.s. has not been more aggressive? richard: i have been railing on against this for weeks.

this administration, quite honestly, has been more america first than it ought to be. it makes no sense as far as the variants. it makes no sense strategically. yesterday, the u.s. began to move in that direction. the administration wants to make sure americans are vaccinated and has been worried about getting attacked by the right over not taking care of americans before helping the rest of the world. tom: at the end of your wonderful book, you use a phrase, war within countries. boy, does that ring home. from chad or the war within

america as well. richard: i do not know the answer to that question but i think the answer will decide a lot of history. take the u.s.. we, for 75 years, have been the principal architect and the general contractor. that consensus is no longer there. we do not have the bandwidth, the resources, the commonality of purpose to play that role in the world come history will move in a different direction -- in the world, then history will move in a different direction. tom: mr. biden providing decade-long multiple president leadership two-state -- to state the obvious of 1915.

what does president biden and the secretary of state signal with this decision? richard: this administration has placed human rights high on the agenda. it is a real sign just how far relations with turkey have deteriorated. over decades, we were reluctant to take this step. i was involved in these conversations at the state department. this relationship is not that valuable. there is not a lot of downside. lisa: richard, to some up -- sum up, which hotspot should be we be paying attention to right now? it seems to have faded a bit. is that wrong or has the focus moved onward? richard: if you asked me that last week, i would have said

something with russia, ukraine. i think china and the u.s. is strategically the biggest hotspot. there are many other places that can be problematic. the single biggest fault line is the united states and china and possibly over taiwan. can these two countries continue to finesse the disagreement they have successfully managed for 40 years but china seems to be getting impatient? can we continue to prevent this from becoming a front-page crisis? jonathan: one of the issues at the moment. council on foreign relations president. news out of germany, germany facing the 2020 economic forecast. 3.5% from 3%. the median forecast, 6.3%

against 3.5. it is not just the vaccine. it is the fiscal impulse of the u.s. versus germany. very different approach in the last 12 months. jonathan: we saw that last week in the ecb tension. the idea that the entrenched cultural polarity and what do you do with fiscal? jonathan: the distance between the ecb and the federal reserve right now. the question for the ecb, will we ever raise interest rates at all? compare and contrast where we are now. airline traffic in america. just to bring you some of the numbers from where we are now. 1.5 one million passengers the

week ending april 22 compared to 111,000 the same week a year earlier. absolutely unbelievable. that was single day traffic. tom: why is it booming? lisa, help me. if i want to go to venice this summer, do i want to risk that? they are begging me to go to venice because i am vaccinated. lisa: the key issue is that if you look at the vaccination schedule. the cases in venice, the cases in greece are going up. what is going to be open in terms of restaurants? tom: let's go down to our real experience. jonathan: are you fully vaccinated? tom: should you go to europe?

jonathan: i will not offer any advice. if it is logical to travel here, it might be logical to travel somewhere else. this is an interesting morning. yields up three basis points. ♪ >> it has gone from bad to worse in india where they have a million cases of the coronavirus in the last three days. the premise to -- the prime minister urging people to get

vaccinated. boris johnson is fighting to get his government back on track. he is dealing with complaints about his conduct during the pandemic. johnson's office denied he made the comments. republicans may be willing to back $900 billion in infrastructure spending. lindsey graham floated the proposal on fox news. he suggested deficit spending could be a way to avoid tax hikes. at the academy awards, the first woman of color to win best

director. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> it is a terrible situation going on in india. there is more we can do and i

believe you will see shortly that all of these things we are talking about are on the table and we will be moving towards that. jonathan: dr. fauci speaking to abc, a tragedy in india. price action shaking up -- shaping up as follows. yields are higher going into the fed meeting decision. euro-dollar 120.95. copper flying and crude lower. tom: what we tried to do here is bring you definitive authorities on whatever the topic is at hand.

holding court on security and immunology at johns hopkins. thank you so much for joining us. you have done tours of duty in delhi. take us what -- away from the sanitized media shots. >> it is really hard to describe and imagine. india has a lot more capability than a lot of people realize. the fact that their hospitals are so overwhelmed speaks to how many cases they have and how much of humanitarian crisis this is turning out to be. tom: tell us about the roads out of mumbai, out of delhi. outside of the big cities, what does india look like? gigi: there are lots of rural spots in india and the cities

are more crowded -- with every type of traffic conveyance -- elephants, donkeys, motorcycles -- it is a busy spot. the air quality is probably not helping people at all either. that is always a problem. it is not good. it is fantastic that the u.s. is offering to help. hopefully, that will get other countries to contribute. jonathan: the difference in the conversation we are having around india could not be starker. we are talking about humanitarian crisis in india. forgive me for having that conversation with you now. what on earth does travel look like this summer?

gigi: if you are vaccinated, you can be very confident that you are protected. it is best to try to not take your vaccine out for a spin. it would be great to not have to use it. if you can manage to avoid the kind of crowds and exposure, that would be the best idea. i think it is going to be different for every family for what they do. get vaccinated first and allow yourself time to build up immunity. jonathan: this interview with the president of the ecb got my attention. there are certain vaccines that have been approved and vaccines that have not been approved. is there some hierarchy

vaccines? gigi: yes. that is inevitable. for u.s. citizens, people who are getting vaccinated under the u.s., it is going to be less of an issue internationally because the two vaccines most people are getting, they will be acceptable. lisa: excuse me for being a bit dr. doom, isn't this an epidemiological nightmare? people are starting to travel internationally at a time when you have pockets of burgeoning virus, basically asking for mutations. how much of an issue does this become as we enter the traveling season? gigi: given how bad things have been over the last year, i am not convinced people stopped

doing the things they were doing. my optimism is rooted in the fact that people have not been following all of the things people have been telling them to do anyway. we know how to stop getting infected. have a mask, have good air quality, try into social distancing. the vaccines are an additional wonderful tool that will protect you. we need to keep with all of the messages. travel is something people have been doing and hopefully, people can do it safely. air quality can be better and reduce transmission. lisa: should there be certain travel bans in place?

gigi: i think vaccination campaigns should be ramped up even more than they are now. you are right, every time someone gets affected -- infected, it is an opportunity for a variant to emerge. we need to keep boosting that. jonathan: thank you, good to catch up. come back soon. numbers out of the u.s., vaccinations, your averages dropping down to 2.7 5 million doses per day. that is your daily average. tom: i know it is not 3 million. i get the idea that it is rolling over. it is rolling over over success of the system. second shot, not as good,

obviously. jonathan: overwhelmed by supply. there is some data from the cdc suggesting people are not turning up for their second shot. 8%. it was not that at the beginning of this rollout. think about the rollout. it was all age dependent, risk factor dependent. the younger people go for the first dose but maybe do not feel they need the second one. tom: the youngers are getting sicker and particularly in the state of michigan. it needs to be conveyed in the coming days, the level of sickness of young people. jonathan: hesitancy showing up in the data. lisa: this is a concern as we try to get to herd immunity. jonathan: from new york city this morning, good morning.

equities down four. yields in, two basis points. from new york city, we have a big week ahead, this is bloomberg surveillance. ♪

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♪ >> we still have long term structural forces that weigh against significant acceleration in growth. >> all eyes are really on what constitutes substantial progress right now. >> we are approaching that stall speed for a little while. >> is that reopening related pickup and growth, does that translate into a sustained increased in demand and inflation? that is what the fed is watching for as well. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: chairman powell, president biden, and a ton of earnings in between. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. what a week ahead on "bloomberg surveillance." live on tv and radio, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. equity viewers lower by five points on the s&p 500.

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