>> we still have the long-term structural forces that weigh against significant acceleration in growth. >> all eyes really are on what constitutes substantial progress right now. >> the markets are so overbought, enthusiasm is so high that i think we are approaching that stall speed for a little while. >> that reopening related pickup in growth, does that translate into a sustained increase in demand and increase in inflation? that is what the fed is watching for as well. >> what does this economy look like six months down the road? that is why you are going to see

inflation more consistent than people are currently pricing in. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. a simulcast, bloomberg radio, bloomberg television across this nation, and in north carolina as well. this week, the fed. this week, the present. this week -- the president. this week, earnings out. jonathan: a press willie from apple, the amount of investment we will see in the country from apple, but the headline is taxes and the press release. apple pointing out they are the largest taxpayer in the united states. there's a big reason for that statement in that press release. tom: it is a precursor to what we will see from earnings. huge revenue gains and a dominance over other sectors of

the market. an open question on a tumultuous week, with your reading over the weekend. what are you observing through this week? jonathan: the conversation has changed. at the start of the year we are talking about pure deficit spending. now we are talking about capital gains. it is a very different conversation, and when the emphasis shifts, the change of emphasis, you got to bad attention. there's been a shift in emphasis down in washington, for wall street at least. tom: i was riveted this weekend over padres-doctors baseball, and the real signal -- padres-dodgers baseball, and the real signal there was the fans saturday night. we are trying to get back to a normal american economy. lisa: i'm smiling because i wondered whether you wanted me to weigh in on baseball. [laughter] tom: go padres. lisa: i will say the united

states is on a very good trajectory. yes, the pace of vaccinations is slowing. there are concerns about faxing hesitancy. but the u.s. is in a very good spot relative to the rest of the world. the tragedy happening in india is massive. how much does that this minister -- does that diminish global growth? that was something highlighted over the weekend. but the virus has not gone away. how do we get out of this? we will get out of it, but the trajectory is less clear. tom: i saw small bank merger of new york and michigan. we see the continued battle over canadian pacific. w.r. grace taken out by standard industries. this is about cheap money. the gloom crew not seeing the action of corporations, whether apple or smaller companies. jonathan: it is quite u.s. specific. we came into 2021 talking about

global synchronized growth area i think that is a nod towards what is happening at the moment, what has happened in europe in the first quarter, and towards a better than economy, certainly compared to where we were six months ago. tom: 6.9 zero on the vix. to make, what we see in the data check that has gone nowhere for weeks, what do you observe in the yield market? jonathan: you do the data check and i will disrupt it. get out of cash. euro, no one cares. [laughter] tom: there's your data check on radio and tv. . all we care about is getting to troy gayeski, including the bitcoin call. he is with skybridge, their co- chief investment officer. i'm reading that hedge funds are

doing better. what is the linkage of alternative investments to four or five big technology names? troy: it is interesting you bring it up because there has been a rotation, particularly in facebook and amazon. less so apple. many hedge funds went long growth coming out of the pandemic and then switched their focus to cyclical recovery. now you see that moving back, given that valuations have come down as much as they have. certainly the dominance in the big five names will be more important than they were the last four months. if you drill down to a subsector within technology that we find fascinating, we find that semiconductor equipment right now is particularly compelling because valuations or fabrication, valuations are very reasonable, and those are both cyclical discovery stories --

and secular growth stories. so there's a continued play on divergence of the economy in china because if you look at intel, which lost manufacturing of thin films and high processing -- and hype potency processors, when we drill down in tech, we think that is a pretty compelling space. jonathan: i'm doing my best tom keene impression today. usually when i get the first question to a guest, he ignores it with no follow-up. let's talk about bitcoin. last time we spoke, you allow that to grow into 13%. can you walk me through where you are now in what is driving things for you? troy: coming into this month, it was a little over 14%, so that is dropped down to 13% in change. but as we spoke about last time, there's really three keys to our

thesis. the first is hyper loose monetary policy. we have been growing around 18% in the u.s. so far this year. the fed will come up with updated data tuesday to see how fast it grew in march, but given continued expansion of their balance sheet, we don't see that going below nominal gdp anytime soon. obviously a desire for every central bank to debase their currency and budget deficits as far as the eye can see, so that is the macro page. it is hard to see an environment to fiat currencies. if you saw this morning with jp morgan's announcement several weeks ago, obviously some of the institutional interests that started in q4, we are going through a very similar adoption story to what we did with gold, from 2006 to 2013, where the world went from basically no

gold to 1% to 2%, maybe 3% over time. that is very different in the cycle than the last two. we expect to see that. i think mike talked about this well, but when you cut new supply and half, if you just keep doing it constant, prices are going to go higher. but when demand increases substantially, prices are going higher. so we are still the middle and east of this market -- we are still maintaining the ease of this market. jonathan: how concentrated you want that bet to be? within the wider portfolio? your tolerance levels around the volatility, how do you make decisions around that? troy: you have to look at correlation behavior. it is very important in your

portfolio. for instance, if you had 90% in gross, high beta, mid-cap, small-cap tech names, it might make less sense to have a 13 present for -- a 13% position in bitcoin. but when you have more strategy or equity exposures, a market nuchal -- a market neutral strategy, having a 13% position in bitcoin is appropriate at this stage in the cycle because that will slightly elevate our volatility. we expect volatility in the rate of 8% to 12% this year, versus 4% to 8% which is our long-term target. but that's one of the unique areas where you are getting paid for that volatility. the nasdaq, could go up another 15% this year?

it could, but you have more two-way volatility. lisa: troy, you seem to be freezing up a little bit. jonathan: i think it's fair to say he's gone. lisa: we've lost him. jonathan: some technical issues there. we will get troy back on ought another time. lisa, you can still make your points on that going. lisa: if -- on bitcoin. lisa: if we are in the middle of able market, are we on a secular growth period for bitcoin? or does the big macro trade end? are we looking at a new crypto asset that is here to stay? jonathan: what did you make of what he had to say about the composition of the wider portfolio? that may be if you are concentrating in the big gross names, this isn't for you. but if you are in distressed credit, maybe the allocation of that size is appropriate. lisa: it is the idea of being

paid for volatility. you're being paid nothing in these areas of distress. there is no distress. given the sense of the lack of being paid, you might as well take a larger wager on something that has a bigger reward that risk. i think that is a fair assessment. is it perhaps a fad? jonathan: it has worked. i don't want to say it works. do you allow something that volatile to grow into your portfolio? you tell me. what is your reaction to that? tom: i don't think i've ever said this on air, i don't believe in rebalancing. i think it is a marketing idea. i think there's two ideas on rebalancing. one is the actual concept. farmer important -- far more important is the idea of how often you rebalance. i really question the rebalance

every quarter, every six months. i really have trouble with it. lisa: did you just say often-ing? tom: there is no distress. jonathan: i agree. coming up, greg valliere of agf investments on a pr statement that has everyone's attention, coming up shortly. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. apple will speed up plans to invest in the u.s. the company says it will contribute $430 billion to the u.s. economy over the next five years area that is 20,000 jobs. that includes everything with capital expenditures. apple will create a new campus and engineering hub in north carolina's research triangle area.

in india, coronavirus infections had a record high for the fifth day in a row. the government reported more than 352 thousand new cases. overcrowded hospitals urging away -- hospitals are turning away patients because they are running out of oxygen and beds. americans who struggle to find an affordable starter home may soon get a break. many owners who have been wary of listing during the pandemic are willing to do so now, but about 10% of the nation's homes have hit the market this year, up from 8% in a typical year. a quarantine free air travel bubble between hong kong and singapore is set to begin may 26. the two sides have been in talks for months. hong kong says they must have two vaccine doses at least 14 days before flying. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.

i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> there's a deal to be done on infrastructure i think. there's probably an $800 billion

to $900 billion we can all agree on. watch joe manchin. i met with him a couple of days ago. i think there's a sweet spot on infrastructure where we can pay for it that won't hurt the economy. jonathan: senator lindsey graham speaking to fox news over the weekend. there's a deal to be done on infrastructure. it hundred billion dollars to $900 billion. that's the view of more than one republican at the moment. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. -- alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. the s&p 500 down not even appoint. yields are higher by three basis points on tens. euro-dollar is stable, down about 0.1%. crude down here .1%. news of the morning from apple. some of you might call this a press release about investment.

other people might say it's come from the marketing team. apple committing $430 billion in u.s. investments over the next five years, creating additional 20,000 new jobs, and then from in this press release, as you indicated and i alluded to earlier, state-by-state, california, colorado, texas, iowa, they are just going through what they are doing for every state. tom: this is a huge story, and frankly, i would suggest it is original. we have the perfect guest now to drive forward this conversation. gregory valliere joins us now with agf investments. we see graham of carolina in the new hub for apple in the research triangle, and all i could think about was norfolk, virginia, the aircraft carrier industrial base coalition of

2000 suppliers in 46 states to the united states navy. apple is spreading it out. greg: i would say, number one, apple realizes big tech is under fire from a regulatory standpoint. the other is i'm not sure we are going to find all the workers for these programs. we will talk about new stimulus, but when i walk around d.c., aussie is help-wanted signs -- around d.c., all i see is help-wanted signs everywhere. tom: that is the center for this president. he is a jobs president. what kind of jobs is this president? sam: i think obviously, infrastructure -- greg: i think obviously, infrastructure is number one. but skilled labor, nurses,

construction workers, and unskilled laborers. i think that type labor market -- that tight labor market is going to be even more skewed until we end the weekly unemployed benefits of $300. lisa: i want to build on this idea of a lack of workers with the popular support for joe biden. it indicated that one weak spot for him was immigration, border issues. what have you seen so far out of the biden adminstration? how much does it differ from the trump deal? >>'s job approval ratings are good, not great. but i think he has badly stumbled on immigration. i think the administration knows it. his initial call for a very small number of immigrants was strongly opposed by most democrats. there's a theme in this first 100 days that he has moved quite

sharply to the left. so i think he will agree to more immigration, and we need to because of the shortage we have in workers. lisa: one thing you do really well this game out the likelihood of certain plans getting passed. right now we are talking about the people in $3 trillion infrastructure spending plan he gives proposed. greg: he's going to have to take a care cut -- a haircut, obviously. i still think on taxes as well, he will take a haircut. there's no way capital gains is going to wind up over 40%. that's not going to happen. tom: every time we take a haircut, i've got to differ to jon ferro. why don't you pick it up -- i've got to defer to jon ferro. why don't you pick it up? jonathan: are you throwing shade

at me? why did i deserve that? i will be nice. [laughter] you mentioned that abc pull. i think it is so important. here's the bit for me and for a lot of people this morning. 4/10 democrats and 2/10 republicans want a compromise. how important is that, the mood of the country of compromising around spending? greg: if he just goes to reconciliation and doesn't compromise, i think that will hurt him. i think wednesday, the gdp number for the first quarter could be close to 8%. the atlanta fed is at 8.3%. we can't grow at this level without starting to worry about inflation, and that is the one thing i think they are too sanguine about. tom: greg valliere, thank you.

jonathan: the u.s. mail somewhat insecure -- the u.s. male somewhat insecure about hair in this country. what is that about? i will bring in the clippers for you. tom: they take it here and here, and they put it up here. that looks better on radio than tv. seriously, you nailed it talking about the mood of compromise. you've got to be kidding me. where's the actual compromise? jonathan: the president said he was going to unite washington.

then it was about uniting the country. but if it is about uniting the country, in this poll, the message is pretty clear they want to compromise on this bill. 4/10 democrats, 2/3 independents. tom: the next 100 days gets you out to the end of the year at some point. how much closer is that to the beginning of primary season to get to the election of 2022? lisa: i do also wonder, there's a shift in the republican tone, the idea that lindsey graham said we are willing to compromise on a deal that we wouldn't have to pay for. this is not very republican. if you think about just how much that, i wonder how much staying power that has. jonathan: look out for senator manchin. that's the language at the moment. coming up, guy lebas of jane

newman you're very -- of jamney montgomery. i might have a black eye over the commercial break. [laughter] find out next. this is bloomberg.

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jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance." lisa: their relationship is transitory. jonathan: equity futures unchanged on the s&p 500. tom: how far north of london did you come from? jonathan: a couple of hours north. michael: i don't even know how to come on after that. jonathan: just read the numbers. michael: durable goods. up .5%. that follows a decline in february. we see an increase but it is much lower than the 2.3% forecast. x transportation, up 1.6%.

it appears the problem we have had is in transportation. i will find the table and see what is going on. capital goods orders, this is one of economists care about because it tells you about business orders, up .9% follows a .9% decline in february. the forecast was for 1.7%. we come up short on that. capital good shipments -- do not have that number right in front of me. yes i do. up to .5%. that follows the february number of -3.6% during does tell you something about gdp coming in a little bit stronger than what we had thought. that has been the theme in the economy because we get the first quarter gdp numbers. tom: the theme we saw in research reports was the lifting of gdp. what does the lifting of gdp mean for jerome powell? michael: not a lot because as

they say, they are waiting for the whites of their eyes. i hate to use this pond because of your blackeye. tom: i will put my glasses on. michael: it may change what -- if we get a strong gdp number, you might see people pulling forward to the idea of whether they will talk about the neighboring, that sort of thing. lisa: in the past durable goods orders indicate the propensity for big companies to invest and stockpile assets, particularly airplanes. how idiosyncratic is this moment? michael: with airplanes it is always very difficult. this is why we see not a strong again in durable goods, especially transportation. boeing new orders were down 46.9%. the month before they were up 358%. it is hard to get a read on this.

when they get lumpy orders it makes a big difference in the overall numbers, which is why would like to look at it ex transportation. you almost have to throw out airplanes because of what went on with the 737 max, what went on with air traffic and the fact airlines do not need new planes for a while, it is hard to get a read on what transportation equipment aircraft means. jonathan: what about what is going on with autos? these manufacturers cannot make them quick enough. michael: new orders were down for motor vehicles -- they were up 5.5%. shipments up 5.8%. they would be much stronger but they cannot get the parts. they have had to shut down plants because of consumer -- of computer chip shortage. tom: michael mckee, with the rudest question at the fed meeting on wednesday.

look for that in our special coverage. michael: don't hit jay powell. tom: he may swing back. jonathan: for the audience, this blackeye looks so attentive. are you going to clean that makeup off? tom: i put my glasses on to hide it. that is what happened. it finally leaked out that jonathan i really do not get along. jonathan: i think people have been sold on that idea for a long time. lisa: let him get in a good punch. tom: guy lebas joins us. what we are hearing is maybe the inflation fear is a bit overrated. is it? guy: probably, at least on the margin. right now the financial markets, breakevens or inflation swaps are pricing in round numbers.

that is a cpi measure. they have already priced in the federal reserve hitting their target. even then, given the last decade and a half of inflation misses, signals a high degree of confidence. i have to argue for this moment in the cycle, a lot of inflation is already priced in. jonathan: it is amazing when we compare and contrast what we are willing to tolerate in america versus the u.k. why do we judge the federal reserve so differently in this market? why is the bar different for them versus the u.k.? they were talking about tolerating higher inflation in the u.k., it is all right if it is north of 3%. when in america is north of 2% is north -- is controversial? guy: it is little bit cultural. the federal reserve has had a strong political and cultural

influence. it became embedded as a fear -- inflation became embedded as a fear, one politicians were concerned about. i think the federal reserve takes on importance, because they are the dealer of last resort, not just for the united states but investment insurance across the world. because of the size of the u.s. dollar, financial markets, and the fit status as the -- and the fed's status as a dealer of last resort in the treasury market, they have taken an outsized importance in global monetary policy in a way that is unwarranted in some sense. still about 20% of financial markets. lisa: you say a lot of the inflation has been priced in. has tapering been priced in?

tapering as soon as late this year or early next? guy: it is harder to judge that. we have clear metrics about knowing what degree of inflation is priced into markets. when it comes to federal reserve purchase volumes, a lot will probably be reflected in real yields. my sense right now and throughout some of the responses to things that jay powell and his colleagues have said over the course of the last few months, there is not a lot of tapering priced into market. when the federal reserve does start warning of a process, you see an increase in real yields. we are still some time away from that. this fomc meeting we may see an increase in long direction treasury as part of the outcome. lisa: that is something people have been speculating will happen for some time. what about within credit? we have seen the post crisis type. we have the likes of troy

gayeski saying he would rather buy bitcoin then credit because it is priced a perspective. do you agree, given the fact you can see real yields rise, even if inflation is already priced in? guy: on the bitcoin comment, credit pricing, investment grade pricing -- in terms of volatility, investment grade credit is far less volatile than bitcoin. you are right in the sense valuations are fairly steep. the thing is we are still late early to early midportion of the economic cycle. typically spreads do not trough until the later portion of the economic cycle. realistically we will probably see, within a couple of years, all-time highs on credit spreads that will bleed through to high yields as well. one of the factors that is overlooked in this discussion is if you look at last week's big

bank earnings release, they released a huge amount of loan loss reserves. banks can do a few things with these loan-loss reserves. they can get capital back to shareholders or they can increase their lending. on the margin increased demand for landings because banks have more capital and that will help create competition for credits. tom: do i suggest from your conversation that we will see some form of bear market in bills, notes, and bonds? guy: for the short-term we are probably tapped up against the short-term high interest rates. i think we have a tactical bull market. room for interest rates to move down. about 15 to 20 basis points before resuming the longer-term. the move upward will be much more gradual. very unlikely to be a repeat of the buyer strike we saw in the

first couple weeks of march. jonathan: always smart. it has been way too long. guy lebas, janney montgomery scott chief fixed income strategist. a little bit later, we will catch up with vishy tirupattur of morgan stanley. the conversation will continue. i think morgan stanley has been well on top of this on the cycle call, which is gotten everybody's attention. it is not just about the near term, it is about the cycle, shorter, hotter. lisa: that raises this issue, how much more can interest rates rise. the long end borrowing rates rise. if you believe we are heading back to the slow growth, low inflation standpoint after the massive flip we will see. jonathan: yields are up a couple of basis points on the 10 year to 1.5773. i came into work expecting a quiet morning ahead of a busy week. tom keene, anything but pure

tom: anything but, it is the news flow and this goes back to the boom economy. it is the force of all that gdp pushing a lot of other assumptions aside. strategists have a black eye over the first four months of this year because they were talking about movement. the movement is not there. it has been stasis. jonathan: what you think the response will be in washington, d.c. to that press release from apple? tom: really interesting. they will have to massage earnings and they have to massage their prosperity. the four companies, their core profitability just extraordinary. how do you sell that the politicians working with america? jonathan: do you think the release on thursday from amazon changes a little bit? lisa: it already has. it has got more and more political. tom: they have to shake things

up. jonathan: have used shake things up? -- how do you shake things up? lisa: i cannot taken seriously. jonathan: tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro. i'm getting out of here. tom: is ok. it will be transitory. jonathan: the fake blackeye. i know we will already have some emails. they take everything so seriously. tom: they do. jonathan: this is bloomberg. ritika: i am ritika gupta. it has gone from bad to worse in india where there has been a million cases of the coronavirus in the last few days. the u.s. pledge descendant law materials and step up financing aid for vaccine production. prime minister modi imploring indians to get vaccinated and disregard rumors about dangerous side effects. boris johnson is fighting to get

his government back on track, dealing with claims about his conduct. according to the daily mail, johnson said last year he would rather see bodies piled high in their thousands then order a third lockdown. johnson's office denied he made the comments. bloomberg has learned a company will offer zero interest loans to employees who own illiquid stock options to try to prevent the potential exit of staff who had expected a windfall before the company's ipo was halted. at the academy awards, chloe zhao has become the first chinese and asian american woman to win the oscar. nomadland also one best picture and frances mcdormand was named best actress. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta.

this is bloomberg. ♪

>> is a human rights and human health catastrophe to have this many cases and deaths in the

potential of suffering in india is staggering. if you think about the situation where they do not have oxygen, it is a compelling the world to jump in to help and to think about the importance of making sure they get the resources they need. tom: these have become very serious conversations. lisa, i, and john, it has become so difficult to speak about this pandemic. with her expertise in microbiology from the university of washington, deborah fuller joins us. we say good morning to all of you. i have to go back to our history. if we go back to the perfect child killer diphtheria, it was 1910. improvement in 1920. 30 years out to the advent of

world war ii, where we finally figured out how to eliminate diphtheria. should we be using that timeline with this horrific pathogen? dr. fuller: we have an accelerated timeline compared to that. otherwise we will be fighting this virus for decades because, as we are seeing in india, this tinderbox of insufficient vaccines and returning restrictions, and you have the emergence of new variants. it is a cycle, it is a playbook we will see over and over again unless we can get on top of it quickly. tom: du, looking at bacteria and virology, just assume that within the joy and excitement of two vaccinations, we will have a regime of covid based

vaccinations out two years and five years and forever? dr. fuller: we might. viruses are a bit different from bacteria in the rate they can undergo rapid mutation to result in new variants. we constantly could be chasing it. there is a potential for us to get on top of it. we have seen viruses eradicated, and we have seen our ability to get on top of viral mutations. the flu is an example where we can get vaccinations every year because it is a type of virus that can undergo rapid mutation and genetic drift from one year to another. there is a thinking we may have to come back annually for immunizations that will update our community to fight the new variants that will continue to fester in the world. it is becoming endemic.

we have a pandemic and we anticipate the virus has a chance of becoming endemic and researching in different places in the world. lisa: you started the conversation talking about how india is a perfect storm and an accident waiting to happen when it comes to new variants. do you feel like other health officials, particularly those in charge of united states policy, have articulated this risk? dr. fuller: i am not so sure they have. it boggles my mind. there is a humanitarian need. if you want to be selfish about it, we cannot just have a nationalistic attitude about just vaccinating our own country , because it will come back to bite us in the butt if we allow countries like india to have these surges and to have new variants. the risk of new variants

emerging that can potentially make our current vaccines less effective. lisa: what have we learned about how quickly this virus mutates in terms of the variations we have already seen and in terms of any of the virology people are watching on the ground? dr. fuller: i think it ended up being a lot faster than we anticipated. coronavirus is in general do not typically mutate as quickly as influenza. within less than a year we have multiple different variants emerging that are more transmissible, more pathogenic, that could weaken the potency of our vaccines. it has to do with the fact it is so prevalent and there are semi-different areas where the amount of virus is quite high. it allows that opportunity for new mutations to come in quickly. it is a race.

right now i feel like we are losing. tom: south of you there are two baseball team spirit the los angeles dodgers and the san diego padres. they enjoyed 15,000 people at dodger stadium last night. should we begin to refill our stadiums? dr. fuller: i think we have to start looking at that. that is creating another tinderbox. start having conversations about if we will have gatherings like this, how are we going to combine that with policies on vaccination and whether you've been fully vaccinated or not. i do not think that should be something we should seriously consider, or we will create another petri dish. tom: we see that within some of our news flow. deborah fuller, university of washington school of medicine.

it was supposed to be a quiet monday. it is not. so much is the distinctions, earnings, the fed, the battle in the markets over rates and inflation. lisa: incredible policy uncertainty highlighted by this week's roster of events. whether it is fed chair jay powell and the decision by the federal reserve. whether it is president biden speech. whether it is the idea of taxes apple seems to be trying to get ahead of with its press release talking about how much taxes they pay. tom: the heart of this is the clear message there are two distinct and separate and widening america's. it is irrefutable. lisa: we have seen this on a growing level. it is the lowest income individuals that are the hardest hit on the way down. that is what president biden is trying to combat or uses ammunition to push forward a number of different policies. i wonder the willingness when you get democrats unable to

agree on what kind of tax regime would be necessary to pay for these plans. tom: compromise is in the air. greg valliere helping out there as well. lisa, help me with the data check. higher yields. lisa: we are seeing higher yields. equities are doing nothing. interesting to see the nasdaq coming back so much after being down earlier in the day. s&p futures searching -- surging six point spirit not a very active morning. tom: we will make you cynical. we will destroy you. lisa: you will make me more cynical? [laughter] there are a lot of earnings questions. all of the big tech earnings will come out and perhaps there will be a chaser to some of the hope that is been priced in. tom: apple may be at 1:50. coming up on balance of power,

the atlantic council. an important conversation on our international relations. dow futures up 51. stay with us through the morning on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television. ♪

♪

jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. equity futures totally unchanged on the s&p 500. we begin with the big issue. another week of big expectations. >> recent forecasts are catching up. >> we have chronically been outpacing expectations. >> the overall theme is better growth, stronger earnings numbers. >> earnings estimates are being upscaled. >> reaching the early stages of an economic expansion. >> the real question is beyond the summer, how long will this sustain itself? >> it is their last meeting. >> we are being bombarded with economic information that shows conditions are better than we thought. >> good expectations have started to turn into firming economic data. >> the fed has done a good job of continuing to toe the line.