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tv   Bloomberg Daybreak Europe  Bloomberg  April 27, 2021 1:00am-2:00am EDT

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ie: good morning from bloomberg's european headquarters. it is 6:00 a.m. in london. i'm annmarie hordern, and here is what you need to know. hsbc reverses credit losses as it beats the street with first quarter results, as ubs takes a surprise hit from archegos. reckitt profit boosted by bitcoin is not enough to prevent
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sliding from tesla. president biden pledges his full support with a call with the indian prime minister amid a devastating covered crisis. we are full swing with results, hsbc and ubs. manus will be sitting down with the ubs ceo. let's kick it off with hsbc, first-order results, a clear beat, all regions profitable. the u.k. bank reported pretax profits of more than $1 billion. we will provide an update on a strategic plan, and its dividend view in august. they did reiterate for 2021 the dividend is off the table. ubs posting an unexpected loss, $774 million hit from the collapse of archegos management, joining morgan stanley in surprising investors over the extent of the impact from the
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hedge fund's implosion. ubs has been mum regarding what is going on with archegos. over more than $700 million. regardless of that there was some good beats for ubs. you do not want to miss manus's interview with the ceo, this is his second quarter at the helm. that is at 7:00 a.m. london time right here on bloomberg television. that's get straight to our interview with hsbc cfo, ewen stevenson. >> that was our best quarter since the pandemic began. profits up almost 80%. very strong recovery in other parts of the world outside of asia, particularly fueled by a turnaround in credit. overall very pleased with the
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results. when you look at our core landing platforms, mortgages have continued to remain robust in hong kong and in the u.k. also a strong recovery in the pipeline in commercial. pleased with the results and cautiously optimistic on the rest of the year. the situation in india is tragic. we have a lot of people there that we are doing our utmost to protect. we are concerned about the emergence of new variants, and resistance to the vaccine programs. if you look at what fueled the results this quarter, it has been the success of the vaccine programs and the strong turnaround that has had on credit. we are concerned about india, and our heart goes out to the people there. yousef: your results were mainly driven from profits in asia. asia was the only profitable
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region compared to the rest of the world. it does that give you more incentive to shift away from europe and the rest of the world, and focus on asia? ewen: we have had a turnaround plan for over a year and are seeking to restructure our u.s. operations and european operations. we are making progress with both. u.k. remains core to us. we have a great business in the middle east and elsewhere. we are concentrated on the growth opportunity we see in asia. you should expect us to keep a broad international net worth, which we think is -- broad international network, which we think is critical. rishaad: your u.k. assets a few years ago, there is talk of you relocating in continental europe. then we have the transfer of
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executives to this part of the world. is that a shift away, and does it reflect a longer-term strategic view of where hsbc should be in a few years, and what would that look like? ewen: you can see the bulk of our profit continues to be in asia. the bulk of our growth opportunity is definitely asia. shifting three of our four global business chief executives to hong kong is a logical move for us. noel and i will be based in the u.k. headquarters, and we will increasingly run the bank as a dual model across hong kong and london. but shifting more capabilities to asia is a clear strategic priority. we think we can get great returns down there, and it has great opportunities. rishaad: on top of that, you are going into china in a big way,
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and the greater bay area around hong kong and shenzhen presents a huge opportunity for you. how many people will you need to hire, or are you the right size given the strategic plan you have in place now? ewen: we are trying to do a very ambitious buildout of our capabilities in wealth in particular, and in china we have hired 100 wealth advisors in the first quarter and expect to hire another 500 for the remainder of the year as part of a multiyear program to build a more significant wealth presence in china. you should continue to expect us to add head count and capability on mainland china. rishaad: are you comfortable with where you are now? you have the momentum to get over the strategic review and emerge more confident?
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ewen: on credit, the first quarter, the global economic outlook improved materially, and downside risk in most markets had progressive vaccine programs such as the u.k. in the u.s. meant we saw a big reversal in credit, and we had a net in credit this quarter. i think we are confident about what we are seeing in terms of customer activity. we think as we come out of covid, customer activity will be stronger. we are seeing a big buildup in our commercial lending books in asia. we continue to see strength in the books in hong kong on the u.k., and other segments like consumer credit will improve as well. we are more optimistic than we were a few months ago.
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annmarie: that was the hsbc cfo, ewen stevenson. joining us now is jane foley, head of fx strategy, rabobank. i want to get your sense of, we had hsbc and ubs, we are seeing stellar numbers. what do you make of the earnings season, and what cannot tell -- what can it tell us about the economic recovery? jane: there are a number of themes talked about that overlay on the macroeconomic picture. one of the take away from hsbc particularly is they were able to use cash they set aside for bad loans, and that was able to push up their top lines or their profits. that is interesting because the bank is well-positioned for more bad debt loans than expected in
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the event the economic recovery was better. that is a positive picture for the macroeconomic outlook. additionally, we heard the mortgage business is good in the u.k. and in asia. we have seen that, strong property markets in many countries around the globe for various different reasons, but related to the support we have been seeing from central banks and governments, furlough schemes etc. a far brighter picture than most would have anticipated just a few months ago. the outlook really has brightened. annmarie: one thing ewen stevens on said fueled the quarter was the progress on vaccines. something to keep in mind as we see a resurgence across asia.
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we had tesla yesterday not doing well in post market trading. our high tech valuations justified? jane: if we look at the tesla results, maybe we have to question whether or not these valuations have gone too far. are these high-tech valuations justified? many suspect they are not. by the end of the earnings season we will have a better answer to that because tesla has been tied to bitcoin over the past quarter, that is part of their story. for bitcoin generally, we have seen this theme in the previous quarter about profitability, and supporting bitcoin as it moved to its high a few weeks ago. tesla buying bitcoin did help accelerate that trend. whether central banks will allow
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that, we will have to wait and see. annmarie: jane foley, stay with us, head of fx strategy, rabobank. let's get a quick check on where we trade. we see asian equities moving to the downside. the main index down 0.3%, the msci asia pacific. s&p 500 yesterday, another all-time high. futures are also looking brighter this morning. a seven year note in there, we have an auction of that today. this is the one that caused the rippling effect in the bond market. as jane was talking about, bitcoin up 1.3%. tesla's bet on the currency paid off even though tesla is trading lower in post market trading. laura: the u.s. says it will share its entire supply of the
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astrazeneca vaccine with other countries, about 60 million doses. it is paring -- it is preparing an aid package for india. germany plans to open covid vaccinations to all adults by early june. it wants to allow people who have been fully immunized who have recovered to go shopping without needing a negative virus test. there vaccine campaign has been speeding up. it took three months for 10% to get their shots, and the next 10% took just three weeks. the latest census a shaking up the house of representatives. texas will gain two seats. it is a shift to republican strongholds ahead of the 2022 midterms. new york state lost on keeping a seat by 89 people.
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california lost a seat for the first time since it joined the union in 1850. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. annmarie: just ahead, prime minister draghi had a few days to find what he calls a historic plan to rescue italy's economy from the pandemic. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> we have too much pressure on public companies, and we do not ask the rest of the society moving on. we will put public companies at a disadvantage, and we will not get to net zero. the only would be that is
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getting all of society behind it, not just the thousands of public companies. annmarie: blackrock chairman and ceo larry fink speaking at the summit with key voices on climate change. it includes mark carney. do not miss our coverage on what is happening in terms of climate. prime minister mario draghi has a few days to find what he calls a historic plan to rescue italy's economy from the pandemic. the government prepares to invest 261 billion euros heavily backed by european funds. what is in the plan, and will it be enough for italy? maria: yes, we are looking at a major cash injection into the italian economy, more than 200 40 billion euros. a lot of money will go to
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digital investment to become a greener economy, more modern in the sense of an economy more up to date to new trends. this is a huge challenge for mario draghi. he needs to succeed and carry through what everyone else has failed to do, major structural reforms in the country. a lot of money is coming from the european recovery fund. there are questions around that. will we get the payments in the second half as promised? can italy absorb that kind of money in a short time? they were clear yesterday that we should be mindful of the credibility of the country at stake, and the macro picture is challenging for italy with debt to gdp set to go up to 160% of gdp after coronavirus. it is a credibility test for mario draghi as to whether the numbers are big enough on paper.
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the question is if italy can absorb the money, carry through the reforms. annmarie: another credibility test will be germany. overnight we are learning they are opening vaccinations to all adults by june. will this work? maria: the signal is that is their intention in june, everyone who wants a vaccine will be able to do so. this could be huge breakthrough for the biggest economy in europe, and could help get to herd immunity, the ultimate goal for the german government. there have been many issues with the rolet of the vaccinations in europe. the commission says by july we will have the doses to do this. it is still a big challenge, but there is more optimism from european authorities. annmarie: thank you to maria
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tadeo from brussels. i want to bring back jane foley, head of fx strategy, rabobank. this morning we are 120 euro-dollar but we have been flirting with 121. what is the upside for the euro giving the optimism about the recovery? jane: i think the vaccine is finally making a dent in the outlook for the euro. the good news from germany, but over the last few weeks about the increase and pace of the vaccine rollout. part of that in france and italy too. and on the fiscal outlook for italy, this is a primary test, but also for the region. italy, for generations, has been failing to use fiscal spending to increase productivity. it has gone to extra debt.
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mario draghi is aware of this. he was the head of the ecb and critical about the needs for reforms. can he pull this off? on paper this looks good, like he will be investing and increasing productive resources. if he can do that, it is a major hurdle for italy and a major turning of the corner. we will have to wait and see. there are lots of negatives too. look at the politics in germany. the market could be nervous when merkel steps down in september, particularly if we get a green party unknown to the market. and french presidential elections next year. a lot of uncertainty, but right now the vaccine trade has been lifting the euro. when the vaccine trade was lifting the dollar and sterling in the first quarter of this year, we had yields pulling
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higher. that is not necessarily the situation now, and that could limit the upside potential of the euro from here. annmarie: in the united states, tomorrow is a big day. we will hear from jay powell and the first presidential address to congress from joe biden. who matters more this week to get a sense of where the economic recovery is going? jane: usually for the markets it is the fed, but this meeting will probably not bring us much excitement. perhaps it is biden. there are a lot of tests for biden, not just on the fiscal front. there are a lot of challenges to the size of the tax package he wants to raise to finance his fiscal infrastructure program. there are political tests as well, russia and ukraine is just
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one of those. what will he do? there is plenty to test biden over the next hundred days, but for now it will be at home in the u.s., how will he get the fiscal package through? how big will that package be? what compromises will be made? this will be of primary interest to everybody over the next few weeks. annmarie: especially when you look how you will pay for it and tax increases. jane foley, head of fx strategy, rabobank, thank you for joining us. india continues to see record numbers of infections as a second wave of coronavirus spirals out of control. this is bloomberg. ♪
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annmarie: good morning, this is
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"bloomberg daybreak: europe." i'm annmarie hordern in london. manus cranny will bring us an interview in the next hour. president biden pledging additional support after speaking with india's prime minister, promising to send equipment and vaccine to india. it is feared india has insufficient vaccines to curb the second wave, which has seen a million new cases over the past few days. joining us now is jeanette rodriguez. i want to start with this phone call and the pledge from the united states send its entire supply of astrazeneca vaccine. how could this impact the country? jeanette: president biden has decided to share the entire supply of astrazeneca vaccine to other countries. we do not know what portion of this will come to india and what portion will go to other countries.
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biden has promised to put together a financial aid package. so far the indian stock market -- the devil is in the details as to far -- as to how far it will help india. annmarie: we are seeing supply shortages from oxygen to vaccines? what will it take to get it under control? are we moving to a national lockdown in india? >> prime minister modi has been resisting a national lockdown. local state leaders defied the prime minister and announced severe restrictions in the provinces and states. the more industrialized state has its own version of a lockdown.
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locally they know what is best for the people and will go ahead , even though prime minister modi told the country he will use lockdowns as a last resort. annmarie: he certainly has. we will keep a close eye on india. thank you for bringing us these updates, jeanette rodriguez, our mumbai hero chief. please stay safe. more earnings reports coming out. abb --the ceo will join us about the results. do not miss that interview, next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ annmarie: good morning. from bloomberg's european headquarters, it is 6:30 in london. this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe. here is" what you need to know. >> our best quarter this quarter since the pandemic began. profits are up 80%. very strong recovery in other parts of the world outside of asia. annmarie: hsbc reverses credit
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losses as it beats the street with first-quarter results as ubs takes a surprise hit from archegos. record profit boosted by bitcoin is not enough to prevent tesla shares sliding in extended trade. joe biden pledges has full support in a call with the indian prime minister amid a devastating covid crisis. good morning to you. 6:30 in london, 7:30 zürich. that is where manus cranny is. he just wrapped up an interview with the ceo of ubs and will be bringing us that in about 30 minutes. we heard from hsbc this morning. first-quarter results a clear beat. you just heard from the cfo there. all regions profitable, notably the united kingdom, which reported a pretax profit of more than $1 billion. the group will provide an update and the dividend the. that's coming up in august. ubs posted an unexpected $774
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million hit from the collapse of archegos capital management. many people thought it would be in the low three digits. they will be joining the ranks with rival morgan stanley in surprising investors and the extent of the impact from the u.s. hedge fund's implosion. we heard ralph hammers call it clearly disappointing. we will get more from him at 7:00 a.m. london time right here on bloomberg television. it is his second quarter at the helm. 6:32 in london. let's take a look at where we trade this morning. asian equities moved to the downside. there is this fear of this resurgence of cases, especially when you look at what is going on in india. the spiraling and collapse of covid cases in india. we have futures higher in the united states. another all-time high yesterday.
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it is earnings season and more than 3/4 of the s&p 500 companies that have reported results so far have beaten analyst expectations. seven year note, on .26%. bitcoin -- seven year note, 1.26%. tesla's bet on bitcoin is helping. an aftermarket, we did see tesla shares slumped a bit. joining us now, we want to get to abb ceo bjoern rosengren. thank you so much for joining us. you beat on the first quarter and you are also looking at profits higher for the entire you. you did -- entire year. you did alert us about that. what is driving the profit increase? bjoern: good morning and thank you for having. we can see -- for having me. we can see a stronger recovery in all our markets, but also segments that we are operating in. at the same time, i think also
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on the financial performance from the company has exceeded our expectations during this quarter. annmarie: ok, also something else you are alerted to us this morning is about potentially an ipo for e-mobility. can you give us more details? bjoern: we have an exciting business. we are market leaders when it comes to charging of electric cars. this is a business we have had for quite some time. it is growing extremely fast. since 2016, we have a growth of up to 15%. you can imagine that this is exciting for the future. annmarie: what's the value of the unit? sorry, we want to get a sense of the value of this unit. bjoern: i think we cannot
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actually know from that perspective. we think this is a business that sits with a lot of value for abb . we have now made a separate division, a separate operating entity with its own strategy with a strong focus on growth. we are now exploring opportunities of a potential listing using that as a growth platform for acquiring, both for organic growth, but also in organic growth. i think in the coming years we need to make many acquisitions within this area to actually keep the leading position we have today in the market. annmarie: speaking of ipo's, you said in february that you have not decided yet whether or not you were going to lift your turbo charger unit. have you reached a decision? bjoern: no. i think we are in the very early stage when it comes to deciding that. we have decided to go into the market.
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we are looking for potential buyers, but we are also exploring the opportunity for a listing, which i think this is of course a highly profitable business with a lot of potential for the future. we look for the best value for shareholders. we will come back probably closer to the end of the year with a final decision. annmarie: ok, so we will be on the lookout for that. looking at little bit more macro what's going on in the world, we have analysts constantly coming on their show and talk about the worries in inflation and supply chains. base metals are absolutely on a tear. copper nearing 10 thousand dollars aton. are you seeing that price of rum materials go up? bjoern: of course we do. i think these are issues that all companies face today. all material prices are going up. most companies have hedges for certain times. but as you move forward, these high costs will of course hit the business. at the same time, i think we are
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trying to transfer some of these to the customers. i think it is quite acceptable today. annmarie: what about your footprint in china? china's activity has been wobbling of late. do think china's growth can sustain some of these earnings and the outlook we are seeing in terms of global growth? bjoern: it is clear that china is the growth engine of this recovery from covid. we saw close to 23% growth for the chinese market for us. that is of course enormously strong numbers. if that is sustainable for the long term, of course, we don't think. you normally grow in line with the gdp development. the whole last year, i think it started already last summer and we have seen a constant recovery on the market, and very, very
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strong growth numbers. annmarie: what about out of the united states? how does your company fit into the trillions of dollars the administration wants to spend on infrastructure and their green ambitions? where can you take advantage of this? bjoern: we are quite excited about the development in north america. we see the market recovering, coming back from all corners. these so-called investment in infrastructure project for the north american, it fits is perfectly, as our company is actually delivering, you know, the electrification infrastructure in the country, but also the automation, which we think will be a key area of investment going forward. from that perspective, we believe u.s. market will be exciting in the coming years. annmarie: you have also asked your division managers to review their portfolios. and a further disposal you plan on -- any further disposal you
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plan on announcing this year? bjoern: i think we have a lot on our agenda now. we have three of our divisions which we are now exiting. that will take at least a this year and probably next year before we finish that. we also now announced that we are actually breaking out the immobility -- e-mobility business and we are looking for a potential listing of this business. so, trying to find a way that we can grow this business and the best way to create value for shareholders. annmarie: finally come we just want to get a sense from you, you are the head of this mega company. what is going on with your workforce in terms of vaccines? are you offering anything like a monetary bonus or potential day off so your employees can go get vaccines? are you encouraging the? bjoern: i think like many companies, i think safety is our primary goal. even from the beginning of the pandemic, we have worked hard to
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make sure employees are safe wherever they are. now, it is the time of vaccines. we are of course following in each country where we are operating according to those rules and how they distribute i among the employeeit -- distribute it among the employees. we encourage everyone in the group to vaccinate, and try to protect herself as good as possible -- our self as good as possible. in other places in the world, we see a recovery going in the right direction. it is a little bit of a mixed bag at the moment. annmarie: thank you so much for that update. abb ceo bjoern rosengren for joining us. thank you so much for coming on and we will see you next quarter. let's get a recap, your first word news. laura: president biden's top
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economic adviser has confirmed a capital gains tax cycle only affect those earning more than $1 million a year. bloomberg sources have verified that includes varied couples filing jointly who also earn that amount. the director of the national economic council says the changes only had a tiny share of american household. the federal reserve is expected to announce it will begin trimming its bond buying before the end of the year, according to a bloomberg survey of economists. about 45% think it will happen in the fourth quarter, with another 40% thinking the central bank will wait until next year or beyond. the first rate hike is not expected until 2023. hong kong homeowners may sell as much as 19 million u.s. dollars worth of property, as residents emigrate to the u.k. a bloomberg intelligence report says 13,000 to 16,000 households may move to britain this year, about 1% of households living in privately owned homes. property listings at the city's
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largest real estate agency have search 44% -- surged 40 4% from last year. global news 24 hours a day, on-air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. annmarie: thank you so much. more concern over the embattled debt manager after fitch downgraded the state on company. we want to get -- state owned company. we want to get to juliette saly. what's going on with --? laura: we have seen some movement coming through in the bond market on this because we did see fish, the first -- fitch downgraded three levels from triple b to a. further downgrades are possible or chinese authorities continued to withhold indications of
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government support. they are keeping huarong on the watch negative. you did see -- on ratings watch negative. they are reiterating that all lines of business are running normal. it has already missed one deadline to report its earnings to the hong kong stock exchange and may miss another one, which is april 30. this is why there is so much concern and stress from investors. it has led to people flocking to the high-quality market, as reflected in this chart. that is inspired -- has inspired a little bit of confidence in the credit market that liquidity could remain ample, even when authorities need to adjust die. a lot of -- dial. a lot of concerns and questions about huaromg. annmarie: april 30, that is friday. juliette saly in singapore, thanks for that update. record profit in the first quarter and $100 million income
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boost from bitcoin, but stock sinks in aftermarket trading. why? we talked tesla next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ >> tesla blew away earnings estimates, recording adjusted earnings per share of $.93. it was a company where the company got better and more efficient building electric vehicles. the bottom line was helped by a record and regulatory credit sales, as well as a $101 million income from sales of bitcoin. tesla bought 1.5 billion dollars of bitcoin and trimmed its holdings by 10%. the company also commented on the global semi conductor shortage, saying it had to shift suppliers during the first quarter but was able to then work with those suppliers to bring its software in line with new chips. they had problems having to
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quarantine some of their best engineers in china. we also got updates on giga factory berlin and austin. they are on track to produce and deliver vehicles by the end of 2021, although elon musk cautioned that a ramp-up to serial production from prototypes is a difficult task and one that tesla is not taking lightly. annmarie: bloomberg's ed ludlow reporting from san francisco. we will stay on tesla and get more on the electric vehicle maker's boost from crypto. how is the market reacting to this news from tesla? >> today, it is actually not reacting all that much, at least in bitcoin itself. the big move was before the test the results, bitcoin -- tesla result, bitcoin rose about 11% yesterday. elon musk had tweeted all over the weekend -- tweeted over the
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weekend, what does the future ho dl? hodl references cryptocurrencies. annmarie: what is so interesting about tesla, like how do they manage its bitcoin portfolio? >> it was pretty interesting that they sold some holdings, just 10%. musk said later that they actually sold it to prove the liquidity of bitcoin as an alternative to holding cash on the balance sheet. it shows that they are looking at this, they are trying to figure out what really works, what can they do in terms of risk management. it was interesting that they did not just buy and hold it. they are working around how they can kind of account for it on their balance sheet. annmarie: do you think it is a harbinger for more companies to put bitcoin on their balance sheet, sell some and potentially boost their bottom line? >> it could be. bitcoin and our cryptocurrencies
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are still pretty volatile, so it's a risk to take for sure. but especially some companies that might need to hedge in the with operations that could be affected by crypto, like in financials or tech companies for instance, those are the main ones that are mentioned that might follow tesla in this. annmarie: making $101 million selling bitcoin. thank you so much for joining us with a recap of what's going on with tesla. just ahead, earnings season in full swing in europe. ubs post an unexpected $774 million hit from of course the collapse of archegos capital management. our interview with ceo ralph hamers is up shortly. you don't want to miss it. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ >> i think very loud and want him saying and i will be very
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loud again. i am not engaged in politics. i write about issues around long-termism and issues that are going to impact my clients. everything we talked about his around principal. even the issues around voting access, that was not political, that was principle based. i believe the foundation of american democracy is based on american capitalism and they are interconnected. but related to a voice, i would tell you, our voice has resonated so loudly with our clients. i think among the asset managers, we have probably the largest voice. i am willing to be that spokesperson, and you know, i get the people from the left and right arguing with me as you framed the question properly. over the last 12 months, we were
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awarded $527 billion. our voice is resonating with clients. i talked about stakeholder capitalism. i will tell you, i get more feedback from my employees, one of my stakeholders, about our voice and how proud they are. i get more clients' feedback about our voice and it shows up in the flows of assets they are awarding. i believe our voice is imperative in the communities where we work. to frame it with a conclusion of milton friedman, if you are an advocate and you have a strong voice on behalf of your three major stakeholders, your clients, your employees, your community, your ultimate stakeholder, your shareholders, receive strong, durable profitability.
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if you look at the companies that have voices, companies that have strong stakeholder capitalism as a part of their principles, those companies are performing better than the ones who are silent. annmarie: larry fink, blackrock chairman and ceo, an interview at the bloomberg green summit. let's get recap, your first word news with laura wright. laura: the u.s. says it will share its entire supply of the astrazeneca vaccine with other countries, about 60 million doses. it is also preparing an aid package for india, which is facing the world's largest surge in covert infections. it reflects growing pressure on the u.s. to do more to help other countries jumpstart their vaccination campaigns. germany plans to open covid vaccinations to all adults by early june. it also wants to allow people who have been fully immunized or have recovered to be able to
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go shopping without needing a negative virus test. the nation's vaccine campaign has been speeding up. it took three months for 10% to get their first shots. the next 10% took just three weeks. the latest census is shaking up the u.s. house of representatives. texas will gain two seats. states in the northeast and midwest set to lose it is a seven. shift to republican strongholds ahead of the 2022 midterms. in a sign of how close the numbers were, new york state lost out on keeping a seat by 89 people. california lost a seat for the first time since it joined the union in 1850. president biden's top economic adviser has confirmed a capital gains tax hike will only affect those earning more than $1 million a year. but bloomberg sources have verified that includes married couples filing jointly who also earn that amount. the director of the national economic council says the changes well -- will only hit a
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tiny share of american households. the federal reserve is expected to announce it will begin trimming its bond buying before the end of the year, according to a bloomberg survey of economists. about 45% think it will happen in the fourth quarter, with another 40% thinking the central bank will wait until next year or beyond. the first rate hike is not expected until 2023. global news 24 hours a day, on-air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. annmarie: laura wright, thank you. just under an hour away from the start of european equity trading. on the hills of asia, which is moving to the downside this morning. what is going on in india has been front and center. s&p 500 futures looking brighter, another all-time high yet again in america yesterday. european equity futures all in the green. seven-year auction will be coming out tonight for those notes. it did not go so well two
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auctions ago. the last one was smooth. bitcoin up 1.3%. i put that as a nod to tesla, selling that, boosting their bottom line. we see more institutional investors and companies get a hold of crypto. ubs host -- posting an unexpected $774 million hit from the collapse of archegos capital management. it joins morgan stanley in surprising investors over the extent of the impact from the u.s. hedge fund's implosion. we have manus' interview with ralph hamers coming up at 7:00 a.m. here on bloomberg tv. we want to get deeper into these ubs results with the dani burger. we have to start with archegos' hit. many were expecting it to be very minimal. why was it so much bigger?
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i am sure there will be a lot of questions
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on why it was not disclosed sooner. you have been digging through wealth management results. dan wealthi: -- dani: wealth management is key for ubs. it's a big driver of profit. the idea that loan growth among the really wealthy was really strong. it grew a lot. this contrasts what we are seeing from wall street banks. loan growth is just not there. it is happening amongst the richest. perhaps that's a good sign for the economy, may be a good sign for banking overall. i was talking to patrick winters about this, who said it's a very strategic from ubs to target loan growth from billionaires. it makes more money than money sitting in deposits with negative net interest. the key here is if you're going to bet on billionaires, you have to pick the right billionaires.
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annmarie: this is exactly the right point. what happens next? it's something to look out for. thanks to dani burger. more of what's going on with ubs. they posted an unexpected $774 million hit from the collapse of archegos. manus spoke to ralph hamers. take a listen. >> we are very disappointed at the situation. we are taking it very seriously. we are reviewing the different prime brokers' relationships. we are viewing the risk management process in order to get the lessons and make sure it does not happen again. manus: will you reduce leverage and reassess how you and to the prime brokerage -- land to the prime brokerage -- lend to the prime brokerage and family offices? ralph: there is two elements we are picking up. their first one is the level of transparency in some of this

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