tv Bloomberg Daybreak Europe Bloomberg April 28, 2021 1:00am-2:00am EDT
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after hours. microsoft leads the street, but not enough for investors. joe biden will give his first address to the joint session of congress. we look ahead to his vision for america nearly 100 days on the job. very good morning to you. more results coming. what is looking out to be in these headlines crossing the terminal a blowout quarter for deutsche bank and they are raising their outlook and forecasting sales. this quarterly report was the highest profit they have seen since 2014, that is seven years. up 34% versus 17% with the wall street average. we have a great tliv blog happening. one thing that crossed my eye,
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the highest profit in seven years, they are also setting aside 300 million euros for futures shareholder -- future shareholder dividends. shareholders have not received a dividend from deutsche bank since may of 2019. a stellar quarter. triple digit percentage growth when you look at the investment bank buffett before tax. good quarter for deutsche bank. we are going to be speaking to the cfo in 30 minutes time on the bloomberg daybreak europe. you do not want to miss this conversation after this report out of frankfurt. we are going to be speaking with santander, delivery hero, and deutsche bank. you do not want to miss our
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results season, executives from across sectors. let's take a look at where they trade this morning. equities study, unchanged across asia. green on the screen when you look at futures across the u.s. and european equity markets. it is a big day for central banks on policy. joe biden nearly 100 days in office. the fed wraps up there fomc meeting. christine lagarde is going to be speaking at the aspen institute. let's look what's going on across assets. a little bit of selling in the treasury market. yields higher about 1.63% on the 10 year. brent crude 66. they decided to have an opec meeting and they decide they're going to keep an eye on india, but they will continue to supply more to the market.
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commodities have been on an absolute tear. goldman sachs saying $11,000 a ton is where they see it going. commodities rallying 13.5% in the next six months. we have earnings season with executives joining, talking about prices increasing. that is being passed on to the consumer. what does this mean for inflation? we will hear from joy powell -- jay powell. joining us now is caroline simmons. i want to start with the earnings results. we had a stellar quarter so far. headlines dropping from deutsche bank. what do you make so far, because the results have been quite good, but global equities kind of shrugging it off. >> it is going to be a strong quarter for earnings growth.
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it is maximum momentum from an economic perspective this quarter. this is expected, everyone knows -- but we will see share price move around companies that are able to provide better guidance around cash returns, share buybacks, dividends. investors will be looking to see positive news flow. >> we had ubs yesterday. the stand out was that $800 million loss given to archegos. deutsche bank, incredible quarter. deutsche bank used to be the bad boy bank, now it seems to be ubs. is this as good as it gets given the low yield environment? >> there are a few things that
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come through for the banks. market volatility which we think is going to remain is helpful for these banks that have investment banking. the loan loss provisions were pretty high. those loan losses are coming in at much lower levels. we have had a bit of a move up. >> i want to move on to a report. you say 40% of investors are looking to increase stock holdings. what is driving that 40%? >> it is a combination of improving outlooks on the
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economy, improving businesses that we survey investors, when we look at the outlooks, people are feeling more optimistic than they were. there is concern around paying in cash. there may be an influence on some people thinking. annmarie: if they don't move into stocks, what are you seeing investors interested in? >> people are focused on being invested.
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technology space is an area they need to get more involved in. 63% of investors say sustainability is going to become a more important part of investing. >> the next six months on, there's going to be optimism in the equity space. at what point do you think investors are going to say we have reached a very high valuations? every other day we are hitting fresh highs. they think it is time to sell. we see economies fully reopen, is that the cell sign? -- sell sign? >> once we have the full reopening and once the economic momentum starts to slow, we get into the territory of tapering stimulus, packages may start to
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be tapered down as well, people will start to reassess the direction of the equity markets. they are likely to continue to rise even in the second half of the year, perhaps not as strongly as the first half. >> on these earnings calls, executives are talking about chipotle, procter & gamble. they are talking about price increases and soybeans, raw materials. an absolute tear. it is being passed to the consumer. how much inflation do you expect in the second half of the year? we think -- >> we think is going to be peaking now and in the next couple of months. that will be feeding through.
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we get a run above target this year in the u.s. and probably next year's and the u.k.. we think it is a temporary inflation overshoot. it will be coming back certainly in time horizon central bank's are looking at. annmarie: home the thought on temporary inflation. jeffrey gundlach spoke to our colleagues and said the fed decision does not know if it is transitory. caroline simmons stays with us this morning. first a recap of your first word news with simone fox in doha.
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>> in the u.s., president joe biden is urging americans to get vaccinated. he is pointing to new guidance that people who have been inoculated can socialize outdoors without masks. the changes and rules might help convince people who have been hesitant about getting their shots. according to bloomberg vaccine tracker, 140 million americans had at least one dose of a vaccine. the european commission wants the power to levy fines on foreign state owned companies. the proposed rules seek to answer complaints from european businesses that chinese state backed firms get support they can't match. chinese business groups have complained about the draft which could change before it is set to be proposed next week. google seeing a surge in ad sales as businesses look to
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capitalize on the economy reopening. first quarter revenue for the parent company alphabet came in at over $45 billion. the firm unveiled a buyback, shares higher in extended trading. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. annmarie: just ahead, as the fed decides, will u.s. inflation proved to be transitory or more permanent? how many times have we heard that? jeffrey gundlach way in -- weighs in. ♪
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nobody knows. there are plenty of indicators that suggest inflation is going to on a transitory basis for a couple of months. that is how i think the fed is trying to paint the picture. >> jeffrey gundlach weighing in on the u.s. inflation debate. u.s. price pressure temporary, or could the money printing and rising commodity prices translate into something more long-lasting? that will be the key question as the fed weighs a third policy decision of 2021. the fomc all but certain to repeat it's about -- its vow. clearly going into this meeting is this dilemma of the commodity prices. who is right? jay powell or jeffrey
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gundlach? >> i think jeffrey gundlach in this case. i don't think the fed are deliberately -- they need to deliver a dovish line and they need adamantly dovish. that is part of the dilemma. if they must be completely dovish, they risk upsetting the apple cart and disrupting the good work they have done up until now, so even though they don't know is going to be transitory, he is right. they don't know, but they must say that wish -- must stay dovish. commodities are putting them under pressure. there is a risk and if they keep the double line, which they have to do, in a couple of weeks we are going to go, wait. you are losing credibility. inflation measures, whether you look at the underlying price index, inflation measures are rising to multiyear highs showing no sign of stopping. i expect them to not change the
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june. -- the tune. annmarie: it is going to be a problem in terms of what jay powell says. goldman is seeing oil hitting $80, copper to $11,000 a ton. 13.5% on commodities rally in the next six months. how is all of this today? what is happening in the commodity market specifically going to play out? mark: if goldman is correct and we see continued commodity gains at such strength, yields are going to be a lot higher. that will be disruptive across markets. i think we will see the 2% 10 year yields, nominal yield, blown away. what it means for real yields is they will still be negative. they may be only a little less negative. a supportive market for risk assets still. even with higher nominal yields.
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the path will be much more volatile. when we get the next spike it will be very disruptive to markets, at least in the short term. annmarie: mark cudmore, thanks for joining us. caroline simmons is back with us. you just heard what mark had to say. what is your take? who is correct? powell or gundlach? >> we are in the powell camp. we think the inflation pick is temporary to do with and finding it will work its way through. particularly the excess capa city that is still there in unemployment levels as well, likely to bring inflation closer to target over time. it is a big question. we don't know for sure. we are positioned between the
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reflation trade, which does happen higher on inflation and yields, but also, the value dial which we think will rotate, and cyclical sectors. when we think about what is driving inflation, we have obviously the commodity pickup, we have supply, demand mismatches coming out of the pandemic, but within we have more structural changes. we don't know how they are going to play out. it is to do with the raging populations we have an the debt levels we got. these are not dynamics we have faced at this level before. what is sure is that it is easier for the central bank to react to rising inflation than falling inflation. they are likely to let inflation
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run above their average targeting level for some time before they feel the need to act. annmarie: what about talking about tapering? many are expecting talk of it by year-end. when do you think we will hear from the fed about pulling back on the $120 billion? >> we are going to get more messaging from the fed. it is something that is very debated. when are they going to start talking about tapering? when are they actually going to do the taper? clearly it is something we will be keeping a close eye on. annmarie: besides jay powell, we are going to hear from joe biden about the 100 days in office. you say overall investors are bullish on the administration's impact on the economy and global
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markets. at what point do you think rises in taxes could derail optimism? >> as long as employment continues to improve and economic growth improves and the vaccine rollout, which has picked up pace, continues as well, things are remaining supportive for investors and business owners. a lot of the tax raises are on the corporate sector, so i don't think that has much of an impact on the retail investor. we are a while away from tax rises causing concerns for people. there is so much positive news at the moment. people are wanting to focus on
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it in what has been a negative year for people. annmarie: the cdc is telling americans when you are outside, you can loosen up wear your mask. your research says 87% of u.s. investors believe the current issues to be controlling covid-19. how much is u.s. exceptionalism reliance on other economies opening up, even controlling the virus? i think of the harrowing images coming out of india. >> it is clearly a global pandemic. we do need global -- global suppression of the virus. in order for it to be maintained. on india, i would say there have been signs in some of the regions, mumbai for example,
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they have been the leading indicators for the virus so far. hopefully, it is a sign of better things to come in india. there is an element as we have seen in the u.k., you can control yourself, you get economic pickup when you can lift your own restrictions and your own populace can do their business, but there is also an element that does require reliance on exports with other regions. we have seen disruption, but hopefully that starts to lift a little bit now. annmarie: thank you for your insight this morning. just ahead, we will stick with what's going on in india. president biden pledges vaccines to help fight india's second wave. the latest from new delhi and mumbai next. ♪
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annmarie:9. -- international aid is en route with desperately needed hospital equipment making its way to the country. president biden has said he intends to send back -- send vaccines but did not specify timing. here is the latest with bloomberg's mumbai bureau chief. good afternoon. thank you for joining us yet again on the situation in india. new delhi, a population of some 30 million people, and the hospital counts for the vacant icu beds, 21 only. are we moving at all in the
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right direction? >> aid is coming in fast from within the country and outside. patients are also rising equally fast if not faster. india today recorded a fresh record of new infections. we have to remember these are probably vastly undercounted. the true figures are probably much higher given india's -- you talked about new delhi, currently the worst to place in india. remember it is not just catering to its own population. because it is a landlocked city, it is catering to adjoining states as well. annmarie: do you have a sense of what is coming into the country? is it oxygen? vaccines? and the timeframe of this to
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let's get a quick check on where we trade in the markets. relatively steady across global equity markets. green on the screen as we await fed chair jay powell. christine lagarde will be speaking today. we have nearly 100 days in office for joe biden. across assets this morning we see yields a bit higher on the 10 year. an absolute tear in the commodities space. mark cudmore, you heard from him. he is in the gun lock -- gund lach camp. how does the fed know this is going to be transitory? earnings we are keeping an eye out for, deutsche bank this morning. what a standout first quarter
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result. the bank had its highest quarterly profit in seven years. they are also raising the 2021 outlook. debt trading revenue up 34%. the street was looking for 17%. that was the average. daniel schaefer from bloomberg news spoke with deutsche >> the prophets were the highest in seven years at a billion after-tax. all 4 businesses performed well in their environment. it was an outsize performance for the investment bank, as you have seen for us and our peers, with over 30% year on year increase in revenues. strategically, really no change. we are executing on our strategy. we have been in the process of, in a sense, strengthening the franchise quarter after quarter, getting better and better client engagement, and frankly, executing on the strategies that were set out very clearly at our investor day in december.
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we are seeing the implications of that but it does not represent a change of strategy, rather a strong execution of that strategy in favorable market conditions. >> you have said this will be about increasing to top line and will be a year of investment as well. there have been hires in certain areas, like the spac business and areas of trading. will accounts in the investment bank increase this year? >> we have talked about making selective investments. we are calling out for revenues in the investment bank to be in line in 2021 with where we were in 2020. that's encouraging. it's mostly the impact of a strong first quarter coming through. it of course gives us the confidence to continue in making the selective investments that we laid out for investors in december. it's all within our wheelhouse, so our strengths and selected client areas of focus where we
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think we can compete and win, but where there's is still room to build, improve our market share. >> can you give examples of those areas? >> there have been a number we have looked at. we have made investments in european government bond trading. we have been looking at hires in the u.s. and our rates business and also credit flow globally, all of which are strengths of the firm. it is within the sort of appetite and strategic direction that we set for ourselves several years ago, but have re-informed for investors in our last two investor days. >> in terms of the investment bank, has the positive momentum in the first quarter continued into april? james: we saw already in the first quarter the normalization that people have called for. we have seen some of that in the first quarter. particularly, rates, fx, emerging markets have continued
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to normalize and we see that in the month of april. we continue to seek strong pipelines -- see strong pipelines. we see activity continuing into the second quarter. it's a very difficult -- for the industry because those were buoyed by the environment last year. nevertheless, we see encouraging ongoing activity. >> we will not have a similar pace as we have seen in the first quarter? james: we would not expect a similar pace to the first quarter. >> that's for the trading business or in particular -- james: trading in particular. banking continues to see relative strength. i think at this point, the year on year while it is ahead of this year -- wallet is ahead of this year. >> the spac's business, is that slowing down? james: we would expect to see a
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slowdown in spac issuance. we obviously have had a boom and benefited from that in our business last year and in the first quarter this year. for us, it's a business we have been inconsistently -- in consistently for some time. we see it as one financing vehicle among many that we have consistently supported. >> has there been any impact from archegos? ubs said yesterday that they are reviewing their prime brokerage unit and the wealth management clients because of that. are you doing something similar? james: first of all, we did see an event with a prime finance client late in the first quarter. we were able to exit the collateral positions without a loss. we were able to return excess collateral to the client. we are very pleased to the weight -- with the way our risk management functioned through the process, both in advance of the market events and in the
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liquidation and managing through that event. annmarie: deutsche bank's cfo speaking to us a little bit earlier. some top lines coming out of this. one of them is that he does not expect the second quarter market momentum to match the first quarter. he said the first quarter, great first installment in the dividend plan. i am sure that will be certainly welcomed by investors. and also, just reiterating the fact that this quarter, the bank has the highest quarterly profit in seven years. also, they are raising that 2021 outlook. you have to hand it to deutsche bank. they do seem to be making a turn. let's get a recap of your first word news now with simone foxman in doha. simone: hi. president biden is not planning to increase the estate tax as part of his tax hike plan. during the 2020 campaign, the
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president pledged to increase the estate tax, along with capital gains and corporate income taxes. still, his plan will end a major benefit for wealthy states that reduces the tax. russia is protesting a decision by brazil's health regulator to block imports of the sputnik v vaccine. officials are citing a lack of consistent and reliable data on the shot's safety and effectiveness. the panel said it identified product development flaws in all three phases of the drug's trial. the developers of the vaccine dismissed the findings as political. it's time to get back to the office, that's the message from wall street tighten jamie dimon. jp morgan is the first major u.s. bank to tell its staff they will need to be back in about two months. it says by early july, all u.s. employees will be in the office on a rotating schedule. there will be a 50% staff cap
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until social distancing rules are relaxed. global news 24 hours a day, on-air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. annmarie: simone foxman from doha, thank you. french finance minister bruno le maire has urged the european union to speed up spending from its flagship stimulus package, along with his german counterpart, olaf scholz, he sketched out how they would use their share of the recovery fund to invest in the bloc's key priorities of tackling climate change and supporting digital development. >> our recovery plan provides total spending of about 28 billion euros. the german institute for economic research estimates that the german recovery plan will boost gdp by 2% and employment by about one half of a percent. >> the implementation is well underway.
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30 billion euros have already been dispersed in 2021. we have lost too much time. china has resumed its growth. the u.s. is booming. the eu must remain in the race. annmarie: let's get more from brussels with maria tadeo. united on the two biggest economies in europe. what are the highlights of this plan? maria: yes, that's a very good point. because the german finance minister and french finance minister decided to present this plan together. it's very symbolic. the message they are trying to say is that this crisis is different for europe, who are now playing as one team. the french say they are looking to tap about 40 billion euros from the european recovery fund. 50% of that money is going to climate activities, 25% of it will go to digital. germany is looking to tap last from that recovery fund, less than 30 billion euros they
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estimate, but 90% of it will go into climate, digital. the criticism for germany has been that the economy has not been able to catch up to the latest trends. this other warning that came up from the two of them, which i would say is also very striking, is that the commission really needs to make those payments and disbursements of this very quick. they need to make this happen before the end of the summer. otherwise, europe runs the risk of losing steam. the u.s. economy is reopening, the chinese economy doing well. europe risks falling behind if the payments are not done in time. annmarie: yes, certainly. they definitely run that risk. also yesterday, germany, france signaling they would back a 21% minimum corporate tax. but those are singular countries. could we see a european response next? maria: well, you know, that was also very striking, the fact that they would come up on the
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record and say we would support this if there is international consensus. i would argue in europe, the tone is shifting, especially because the u.s. administration has signaled they are open to talk about tax reform on a global scale. the europeans are much more optimistic that we could see change on that front. yesterday, bruno le maire was very clear that there should not be a race to the bottom on taxation after coronavirus. they also hope that perhaps a discussion could lead finally to digital tax reform on a global scale by the summer. remember, the europeans have been asking for this for years now. i would argue yes, the europeans would say they believe the mindset, the tone has changed, and now this is more likely than ever, especially because the politics from the u.s. have changed in nature. annmarie: also, maria, canada's finance minister gave an interview yesterday calling it a breakthrough moment, this idea of a global tax. interesting to see what's going on both sides of the pond. maria tadeo in brussels, thanks so much for joining us.
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♪ >> if you go up to 40% capital gains tax, that's a really big problem. that's a huge headwind for the stock market. another huge headwind of course would be the wealth tax we are talking about. those seem much less likely to pass, to me. those would be other issues that would greatly discourage a small business investment. annmarie: jeffrey gundlach,
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double line capital ceo, on the impact of raising u.s. taxes as he spoke to our colleague. joe biden is set to make his first speech to congress after almost 100 days in office. the president is expected to highlight his progress against the pandemic while calling for bipartisan support on his infrastructure plan. sources say he will abandon his campaign promise to increase estate taxes as he unveils funding measures for his american families plan. here with the latest, we are joined by bruce einhorn in hong kong. thanks so much for joining us. a little bit of a preview of what to expect. what do we know about the american families plan biden will likely be discussing in this speech? bruce: the president's american families plan will likely include funding for things like childcare, for paid family and medical leave. there will likely be a $200 billion program for universal
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pre-k schooling. the president is also going to talk about tuition free community college, as well as a four-year extension of the expanded child tax credit, which was in the pandemic relief bill passed in march. annmarie: what more do we know about the plans to pay for this with tax increases? this is really going to be at least what investors are going to be focused on this evening. bruce: yes. as we have reported, the plan is likely to include a near doubling in the capital gains tax. we also know that the administration wants to increase corporate and personal income tax rates. we also know that the administration is considering plans to kill a list of other deductions, exclusions, loopholes that wealthy people use. that said, at least for now, the administration is not going to move ahead with plans to expand the estate tax, which is
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something they had talked about during the campaign. people in the administration don't think they need at the moment. annmarie: this will be marking 100 days in office. a lot of what he will talk about today is what he would like to do. it's a razor thin democrat majority in congress. how likely is this even going to get passed, given that some democrats are not even fully on board? bruce: you are right that the democrats have a very thin majority, both in the house and senate. it is highly unlikely that the are going to get any repu on board for any of the present's proposals, as we saw with the covid relief plan, where there was anonymous republican opposition to it. so, it's very important that the democrats hang together and there are democrats who are saying, well, they've got concerns. democrats from new york and new jersey, other high tax states, are saying they may withhold
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support for the plan unless it lifts the cap on state and local taxes, that state and local tax deduction, which is something republicans passed in 2017. other democrats say the president needs to do more on things like drug prices, medicare. there's going to be a lot of discussion within the democrats about how to get this over the finish line. annmarie: yes, certainly will be. thanks to bruce einhorn, bloomberg's editor, for joining us ahead of that speech this evening, which you can catch on bloomberg television. turning to tech earnings, google has seen a surge in ad sales as businesses look to capitalize on the economy reopening. alphabet reported earnings that topped estimates. the firm unveiled a $50 billion buyback. shares rose in great britain. breaking this down -- shares rose in late trading.
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breaking this down for us is our reporter. is this business going to be still driven by advertising for the search engine? >> advertising was a highlight of the quarter. it is still about 70% of their total ad sales and ad is about 80% of google's business. we saw travel and retail pickup. the other area that caught people's attention was youtube, which is still relatively small but grew at 49% in the quarter. i think a couple of things that were quite interesting for people, one was that they really called out what they call direct response advertising. when an advertiser wants somebody to make a purchase rather than just brand building, and rather than kind of putting youtube into competition with traditional tv, it is
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potentially taking the competition to amazon on shopping. they said they were really going to continue to focus on that direct response offering to customers. the other area that pulled together search with maps and youtube so they are getting advertisers who are bringing together all three components of the google platform into campaigns. that's something that is relatively new and i think will be quite powerful for the company and advertisers going forward, and something that is unique to google and the advertising offering. annmarie: microsoft also, sales profit topping estimates, but the market not very much enthused about what's going on there. is microsoft having a more difficult environment right now than google? >> yes, i think the difficulty for microsoft is it is almost a $2 trillion market cap company. when you are that big, you have
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to pull something huge out of the back to surprise people. revenue up 19%, 15th straight quarter double-digit sales growth. it's hard to see what more the kind. the ceo -- what more they can do. the ceo was very optimistic about the forward pipeline. he said digital adoption curves are accelerating, not slowing. this is just the beginning of a decade-long transformation of how we use digital technology. i think they are certainly very optimistic about the future and it is really around their cloud services, particularly the azure platform, that is really delivering for them. microsoft is the leader in cloud services. annmarie: today, we are going to get facebook and apple. thanks so much for joining us, matthew bloxham. just ahead, wall street prepares its return to the office. jamie dimon becomes the first executive to bring his u.s. employees back into the building
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♪ >> i have seen how, you know, computing power has been growing at an exponential rate, and memory storage, disk storage all have been growing very rapidly. batteries and energy storage have grown at a very slow rate of 3%, 4%, 5%. so it takes about 20 years to double at that rate. annmarie: that was jagdeep singh. you can read about the company on the bloomberg terminal and website. a fantastic scoop.
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just over an hour away from the start of european equity trading. what is going to be the focus today, of course, how deutsche bank shares reactor that blowout first quarter. it reported the highest courtly profit in seven years and raised its 2021 outlook. debt trading revenue is up 34% versus 17% when it comes to the wall street average. the cfo did say in our interview, don't expect second-quarter market momentum to match the first quarter. a little bit of a cold water from the cfo, maybe just wants to make sure expectations are in line. staying with the banks, jp morgan becoming the first major u.s. bank to mandate a return to office for its entire workforce in the nation. in a tuesday memo, staffers were told to start making arrangements. joining us is dani burger. how soon are jp morgan employees going to bid farewell? >> what are they going to do with all their extra screens and ergonomic chairs?
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in about two months, they want employees to come back in. let me read from this memo that was sent from the decision-making body, headed by jamie dimon. they said they would fully expect that by early july, all u.s.-based employees will be in the office on a consistent rotational schedule. with this timeframe in mind, you should start making any needed arrangements to help with your successful return. a couple key things. it will be on a rotational basis. it is about 50% capacity they are looking at, basically in line with government social distancing, but also encouraging employers to get the vaccination. that is not mandated to get back in. the question now, are we going to see goldman sachs follow suit? we know solomon has been vocal about this. annmarie: if you work at jp morgan, you decided to move down to florida for some sunshine, you've got to get back to new york city and the tri-state area. what's going on with ubs and credit suisse? still in crisis management mode
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after archegos. they have announced some personal changes. >> that's right. these instead of what credit suisse has already done, this is mostly concentrated in legal and compliance. they are not changing up any of their risk or prime brokerage employees, at least for now. they have a new general counsel, a new legal officer, chief legal officer. credit suisse bringing in a new general counsel. their former general counsel has taken over the role of compliance head. nomura, they are suspending a group of senior executives. that's going to be the head of prime brokerage, the head of the u.s. business as well as the head of equities. again, that's more similar changes to what credit suisse did. annmarie: thanks to dani burger. keep an eye on all those stocks. . that does it for me and daybreak europe. manus will be back tomorrow.
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♪ anna: good morning. welcome to "bloomberg markets: european open." i am anna edwards live in london. mark cudmore joins me in singapore to take us through the market action. the cash trade is just less than an hour away. here are your top headlines. deutsche bank's big beat. the lender posted its strongest quarter since 2014, boosted by spreading unit. it is fed day. investors look at for jay powell
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