markets. all of these go well for the continuation of the bull market. >> we know this economic data is great. this is reopening, fiscal stimulus. we are all becoming behavioral scientists. >> there are many trends that will probably make this cycle harder for the next several years. >> this is like starting a fire. there is a chance inflation could be starting. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." jonathan: from new york city, for our audience worldwide, this is bloomberg surveillance live on bloomberg television. futures positive, .6%. the numbers that apple just put up, absolutely huge. tom: i think julian emanuel

needs a massive shout out. he absolutely nailed the importance of yesterday. yesterday was a reaffirmation of what we are living with with technology companies. we don't really understand their dominance. jonathan: got an upgrade from goleman as well. could those numbers get much bigger? tom: they can be persistent. since 2012, they have decided to deploy to sherry purchase. it is so much the chronic nature of it. every quarter, too much cash and they use it to build a new campus in north carolina. jonathan: persistency has been

unreal. lisa: there has been a concern about some of the tip shortages. really disappointing as a result of that. just to give you some scope, every region, earnings grew for apple more than 45%. just to give you a sense of the acceleration. shares of apple are up less than 3% in premarket trading. try to square that. jonathan: stocks not responding. we have had record geographical growth. record revenues. double-digit growth in each product category. tom: go back to valentine's day pre-pandemic and he was see the major things in fits and starts

find a time to move. they move on the expectation and wall street has to reset. imagine how we are going to reset tomorrow on amazon. jonathan: we talk about a quite selloff in the treasury market. we have had a move of 10 basis points on a 10 year yield on the week so far. 4200 on the s&p 500. there it is in futures. we are up seven -- .7%. goldman thinks maybe 80 in the next six months. we have a lot to get through. lisa: commodities super cycle seems to be a common theme.

today is 8:30, jobless claims are expected to come down somewhat significantly. we are expecting a first quarter gdp number of 6.6%. there was a question here about how hot this economy can run before people recognize it as such. 11:00 a.m., randy pearl is speaking at an s.e.c. meeting talking about financial regulation. i wonder how much he is going to come out and talk about regulating some of the derivatives are giving more transparency around some of these trades. amazon and twitter expected to report earnings. i'm watching the stock price

reaction. what exactly are they pricing in? it seems like no the really matters when it comes to the stock trading activity afterwards. jonathan: let's talk about reaction this morning. ford is down in the premarket. there is a chip shortage. can supply meet demand? they have had a cup planned production by 50%. it is going to constrain revenue. 3 billion to 4 billion is nothing compared to the fact they just posted a $90 billion quarter. tom: i like the way you partition it. combine the tech companies to conflate them and with other sectors i don't think is appropriate. certainly, the other sectors out of the pandemic and logistics

issues. long beach on the west coast finally getting some a back to normal. apple and the rest of them is a different story. jonathan: the global chip shortage certainly the issue at the moment. each and every individual company will have an opinion on this. >> it is already relatively over valued. we do expect it to continue to trade at the high level. if you look back historically when the dollar hit its peak, it went to these peaks in 1985 in 2002.

that is what we are seeing this time. where are you going to go to? it is really about the u.s., but people are going to maintain allocations for the foreseeable future. lisa: blended deficits start to matter again? >> i think we are getting to the point where they do matter and it is more a question of debt, not the deficit. it is not just a u.s. issue. what we are confronting right now is a very different situation from the past. countries will bailout interest rates. now, you are not going to see volatile interest rates. the only way to get real rates to fall is hyperinflation. tom: with your dollar resiliency

, do you assume the real yield is not clawed its way back to zero? we stay with a persistent, negative real yield? marvin: we should expect real yields to pick up. we should expect treasury yields to start to pick up over the next couple of years or so. markets have already priced in a significant amount of inflation. there is still room for that to go to get to the come -- fed's comfort. to lisa's point, that makes the debt problems more pressing for countries around the world. tom: the cadence of marvin at barclays is the same as chairman powell. the real not yesterday was his access.

the chairman powell timeline extends well out into 2022. that is what i'm hearing from marvin. jonathan: totally committed to this. chairman powell won't link. do you think everybody gets that now? marvin: i think people will get that and that is why we have the positive the bond market. remember, we had a very intense selloff in the first quarter. since then, bond yields have gone up a lot. they are not really going anywhere. that is the market accepting that. the next step is, they need to see is the economy going to be stronger? or is it going to be in line or some sort of disaster that is going to take it down? we are just going to have to wait for the data. that is why we are trading across asset markets right now. jonathan: always good to see

you. great to catch up. shout out to sam r.o.e. of yahoo! who drew my attention to the worker. here's is a quote for you. i think the fed is far more concerned about the virus and the average american. jay powell is the guy that shows up staring -- sharing stories about how about the pandemic is while you are back sharing pictures of your beach vacation. tom: that was a clear and consistent tone. one thing to note, i'm a member when ben bernanke's a voice went from the nervous he was to being very calm, it is a very cohesive press conference. that is what impressed me yesterday. it was solid from the beginning to the end when mckee was rude. jonathan: he got the last question. about $120 billion a month. can you do the same?

the signal you would send with cutting that would be strong to say the least. tom: mckee is asking the question and i'm watching the yield. the yield wants to go lower. i think michelle took the hook and said goodbye. lisa: i'm trying to figure out where to place that sound that tom just put out there. jonathan: you have not heard that before? lisa: ok. i will say this. i think it is fascinating how much of an experiment we are in in terms of biden amplifying joe biden policies on the same day he announced nearly $4 trillion in spending plans. we have jay powell saying we are going to hold rates as long as we can. jonathan: they are going to keep waiting period coming up, steve.

looking forward to the conversation. here her equity market. looking at all-time highs on the s&p 500. 4200 on the s&p 500. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: president biden is betting he can sell the american public on sweeping change. in his speech before congress, the president called for higher taxes on the wealthy to find a massive investment in the nation's social security net. he is asking for trillions of dollars to stock up education and subsidies for working-class families. politics may call for the president abandon some of the more ambitious ideas.

he underscored how much he has focused on china and his economy. he says he believes the u.s. and china can cooperate in some areas. he warned his asian ping -- xi j inping wants to make china the most cannot country in the world. the u.s. has warned indian -- the state department issued a level four travel advisory, its highest level. americans have been told not to travel or to leave as soon as it is safe. india says there are a record 379,000 covid cases in the last 24 hours. amazon is rolling out raises to more than 500,000 of its hourly workers a few months early. they will get pay hikes ranging from $.50 to three dollars an hour aimed at boosting the

fast-growing logistics division in the u.s. the company says it is hiring tens of thousands of people at the unit. i'm riddick a -- ritika gupta, this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the american jobs plan is a blue-collar blueprint to build america.

that is what it is. it recognizes something i have always said, in this chamber and the other, while street did not build this country. the middle class built the country and unions built the middle class. jonathan: good guys and women on wall street. not the divisive language people expected. from new york city this morning, good morning. the s&p 500 up 30 on the s&p. 4200. apple, the new $90 billion buyback authorization, larger than 400 of the s&p 500s components. what a stat that is. several upgrades in the last 24 hours. raymond james and chris queso

have gone to 185. dan joins them. apple, essentially the tom brady of the tech world. the skeptics will continue to say the best is in the rearview mirror and a successes moderating yet brady just won his seventh click. there you go. tom: i'm going to go back to the great larry haverty on fifth avenue in front of the apple store telling me the doom and gloom was there. iphone 5 or iphone 6. the world is coming to an end and he does laughed adam and larry was right then. jonathan: he is right. tom: also are editor-at-large in charge of narrow majorities. dan writing about this, this huge reality of narrow majorities president biden has to deal with. how does he affect process? >> he has got to keep everybody

in line. he cannot have any defections. if he is going to get these proposals through congress, he is going to have to do with 50 votes because the republicans are not going near it. tom: what is the power of the quiet moderate democrats? there is a lot more than joe manchin out there and they are being quiet. >> they are being quiet because they want to see what they can extract in terms of compromise from a five no ministration that they can comfortably go along with his plans and not face a reelection struggle for six years. >> what is the consensus among the democratic party, biden's many different plans he has proposed that actually looks realistic? >> i think he certainly is going to go for these tax changes because it is more philosophy than anything else. he wants to change the way the united states approaches

taxation of the wealthy. he is going to push this through even if it takes a vote by kamala harris to get it done. lisa: i don't understand why there is such resistance even talking about closing loopholes in addition or perhaps to replace the idea of higher taxes because the higher tax rates don't necessarily translate into higher tax revenues. >> it is perplexing to me. everybody in abstract, did -- agrees we should just collect the taxes that are owed. the republicans make the argument that you don't even need any tax increases for enforcement. but then, they impose -- oppose spending money on enforcement. tom: no one watching this show knows what you and i know. this comparison to reagan is baloney because of the bu llweasels.

wilbur mills would have been your favorite congressman. they were a consorted -- conservative majority and hiding from the republicans as well. the polarity is the real issue for the president. >> it is true and we should not forget the fact that joe biden has a seeker ally even though he is nonpolitical. that is the fed chairman. in an environment where interest rates are going to stay low for as long as the eye can see, you don't get away with these plans. tom: our taxes going up? >> taxes are going up. absolutely. tom: you think the democrats in the house are going to let that go through? >> i think that is true. you mentioned the good guys on wall street. that line was not in his prepared -- he ad-libbed it. even he realizes you have to reach out to the financial world in order to get some of these plans.

jonathan: do you think it is broader than that. do you think it is about avoiding the divisive language? >> since there was nothing really new in the speech, it was more about style then subsidence last night, it depends on your view, but i thought he did very well in that. tom: greg, moments ago, some democrats not on board. lisa: this has definitely been an issue. how much can you get people on board? i was looking at michael coming out this morning saying what seems viable among the slim majority is a build back better plan, $4.1 trillion. there might be opposition, but it still seems like there is quite a bit to get done. jonathan: let's talk about the market perspective. most people in the bond market are having a tough time with

what comes next. pure deficit spending. it has become a lot more nuance and i think many people are struggling with how much additional supply we will have in the next few years and how much that will be offset by tax revenue. lisa: and offset by a federal reserve buying a lot of these bonds. before we let you go, how much does biden appreciate fed chair jay powell for a variety of reasons? >> it is interesting to me that jay powell has never met joe biden since he has taken office. that is actually pretty surprising. there is speculation that progressives want to make sure that joe biden picks a new fed chairman when his term ends in january. that may happen given there is

no personal connection between the two men. jonathan: decent point. there are many people in the market that i've had private conversations with who believe the chairman powell turn of the last 12 months or so to social warrior status is somewhat disingenuous and all about getting a second term. tom: i don't have a strong opinion on that. jonathan: i'm just telling you where the discussion is. tom: you walk in every day, you are the foreigner and you are learning about bowlweavils. lisa: that is how he welcomes you. tom: when i go to london, i have no clue what is going on. jonathan: i have no idea even when we are talking about the u.k.. you are often confusing me. tom: we will talk the designated hitter tomorrow. jonathan: coming up, glenn hubbard. you're off tomorrow, are you? tom: my people have not told me. jonathan: i was told you might be.

futures up 30 points. an upgrade to 185. tom: maybe amazon stocks will come in. jonathan: i will take a phone from you tomorrow. that sounds good enough?

jonathon: all-time highs on the s&p 500. your price action looks like this, 4200. we break through it. the session up .7%. the nasdaq up by one full percentage point. the numbers from big tag have been phenomenal, north of 50%. getting your head around that. let us talk about something different, execution risk. morgan stanley is a first bank to put it on the table. can you meet with supply? one of the issues and obstacles of the chip shortages, two different companies with different issues. apple talking about the revenue to the apple and mac business

because they cannot get the chips they need. that will not be an issue for a company that turns out $90 billion of revenue. it is an issue for the likes of ford. it is down by .2 65%. i do not think anyone is talking about q1 numbers because q2 production is about to be cut by 50% because i cannot get access to the chips that they need. great demand can supply need. this is what we look like in the bond market. a 10 paces -- basis point move and it has hardly been discussed. and, it is slipping under the radar. 15575. up four basis points today. from slipping under the weight are, because we are still within the range of the last month. i think this move is notable. once again, a shift higher on the 10 year on the curve getting a little bit steeper. tom: some of the yield is off of

the nominal gdp we have seen. we have seen it with the earnings -- merck earnings. they confirmed that the revenue growth of eight percent to 12%, #have never seen before, and that is -- those are numbers i have never seen before and that is because of a boom economy. right now, we are thrilled to bring you glenn hubbard, a columbia university barely describes his contribution to economics. former chairman to the president's council of economic advisers. he is the most articulate conservative economists we have today, bashing those to the right of him on supply-side here -- theory. we come to you in an extraordinary and original time. but we are living is not in the textbooks, not in the textbooks of ned phelps as

well. how do we come out of this with stability, or instability? glenn: well, a huge and important question. i think we have to take action above monetary and fiscal policy. we had news on both yesterday. the fed has to be a lot clearer on the inflation and real side, and fiscal call -- policy has to confront the fact that we have need for things in the long run. the tax system required for the government president biden wants would require value added tax or a middle-class taxes. tom: how should viewers and listeners sensitize -- synthesize inflation? should we look at it as u.s. versus the rest of the world? how do you study where inflation is heading? glenn: i think the answer is all of the above and more. i do believe that under good

conditions, inflation could be transitory. inflation will rise, we will see that and services inflation as it bounces back and in goods inflation and shortages. i think the problem for the fed is that they are focused on the labor market and this is an important point. one of the reason employment recovery is at half of its output is that part of it is structural. it is an economy readjusting and the fed being easy will not help that. there are inflation risks to be sure. lisa: what would you say to people that say for years we have been expecting inflation and there has not been a lot of flak and it would given -- it would make sense given how low rates are that inflation would pick up. this will not change, how will you respond? glenn: glenn: inflation is peaking up, and i do not think it will explode. i think there will be time --

they will be a time where the fed will have to explain the groundedness of inflationary expectation. unfortunately or maybe fortunately, the kinds of policies that we are seeing on the fiscal front will slow productivity, so i kind of secular stagnation scenario day per day. lisa: could you explain how the proposals that we have heard will actually cause more stagnation and less productivity? glenn: sure. that tax proposals on the corporal front and capital gains fronts are definitely leaning against investment. the president may articulate fairness points but we are not hearing about the efficiency points. we trade both of those off, there is not very much support for work, and what the president is proposing. it is really an expansion of social spending. it is a different set of orientations. from the fed's perspective it

could mean real interest rates. lisa: is there an economic president to highlight what you are saying. a lot of people point to the tax cuts under president trump and set a lot of those did not go into capital expenditures or investments. on the flipside, higher capital gains taxes and corporate taxes will not have as big of an effect in terms of diminishing expenditure -- expenditures and productivity. glenn: in the tcja that you referred to, investment went up early on. the growth was retarded by the fact that the administration chose a protectionist trade policy and generated policy uncertainty and were anti-investment. we have experiences from the 1970's with malaise with bad tax policy. tax policy is one thing. clearly, there are more efficient ways to fund government and what we are hearing about. and for budget math you cannot fund government by taxing the

risk -- the rich. tom: lawrence kudlow and i are on the same page and you are the singular voice of conservative economics. let us get back to first principles right now. what does art leffler and his crew get wrong to those that are more strident than you are about conservative solutions? what do they get wrong? glenn: i do not think it is a matter of right or wrong but missing the starting point. the first starting point in government is what is the size and scope. taxation is a way to fund the government people desire, it is either today or tomorrow. we really have to decide what we want the government to do, and then we have to ask the most efficient way to pay for it. arguing for low taxes does not make sense if that is not the public choice. the public choice seems to be for a larger government and the

question is is it efficient or are we paying for it is the most -- in the most efficient way and the answer is no. tom: can we take our obligations to our children, grandchildren, and great-grandchildren and sold it through the growth of the nation's economy, or are we going to try to be more overt and try to get this fixed? glenn: growth will help, if you look at the drivers of physical problems before covid they were in the entitlement programs and we should get rid of those liabilities, and i do not think it is a green problem, it is a question of how do we make government work better? we need to focus on helping people prepare for opportunities, support for work, and reining in some of the other programs that try to drain the budget, and if we have taxes

raise them in the most efficient way. jonathon: it is good to see you this morning. a columbia professor of economics. caterpillar up more than 27%. outward numbers in the last couple of minutes, and it is a big beat on earnings. 287 versus an estimate of 195. revenue, $11.9 billion versus an estimate of $10.48 billion. expectations were high and we are coming with a big surprise on caterpillar. tom: this goes into the partition you made earlier about the chip issue. these are really worth studying, these are companies that are global, but much more away from the hoopla, if you will of amazon, apple, and google. these are real businesses and where -- i way they do -- well they do with a revenue beat and where they reframe. jonathon: a nice read,

encouraged by improving conditions the stock is up. lisa: it has to do not only with homebuilding, which has been going gangbusters. the ideas of investing in infrastructure and i have to say that the fascinating story that is surprising after the digital economy was front and center in 2020, now we are talking about the physical world and just how much people are bidding that up, and i wonder how far that will go and what this is pricing in an terms of what plans will get past and how much this will go to fixing roads and bridges. lisa: 40 -- tom: 4200. we were talking about it earlier in the team meeting we had. it goes forever. lisa: it was minutes before the show started. tom: lisa and i were in makeup. jonathon: that is where the team meeting is. do you wear makeup? tom: but, when do we get to 5000

frame -- framing. we are not there yet. but come on? lisa: it is on the fundamentals and that becomes a question when caterpillar shares are up nearly 3%. this makes sense. we did not see the same thing for apple, even those those -- even those though -- even though those earnings b. tom: analyze it. we are up 24%. jonathon: not bad. tom: three years double-digit's. jonathon: up almost 30%. up almost 30%. the only banks coming into 2021 with their numbers still north of where they are, jp morgan at 4400 and goldman at 43. everyone else, because this was 30 percent. you think what happens with a look ahead, some point, they say do the year ahead now. and this market just ripped. lisa: the real question is are

these peak earnings or peak numbers? or is this the beginning? jonathon: coming up, -- tom: can earnings be transitory. jonathon: 4200 on the s&p, up 30 points. we advance .7%. the yields are up for basis points. 16520 one. we were almost serious for a moment. wasn't the weather beautiful yesterday. the heat in new york city? just a blaze of summer. three different people talking about three different things. three anchors talking about three different things at the same time. tom: all listening to each other. jonathon: this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i am ritika gupta.

president biden has claims that america is on the move again. he planned a tax hike on the wealthy to pay for plans to spend trillions on education and childcare and other democratic priorities. the president said his proposal would be a jobs maker, especially for those without college degrees, people who largely supported donald trump. legal experts say that federal groups will be on the cusp of bringing charges to rudy giuliani. this has been a long-running investigation into his working ukraine including attempts to bring josh to dig up dirt on june josh joe biden. shares of facebook rising. 48% at the social network. there was strong demand from other advertisers want sting -- wanting to grab attention from users. the average price rose 30% and monthly users rose 10%.

global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i have a feeling of cautious optimism. we were seeing cases go up and

we were seeing people relaxing their measures and i was really worried that we were in for yet another surge. i will say we have plateaued our cases and cases are starting to calm down. we think this is increased vaccination and people taking caution. i am cautiously optimistic that we are turning the corner. jonathon: from a month we have gone from impending doom to cautious optimism. we have the cdc director speaking to good morning america. for new york city, good morning america. do you like that? up 30 on the s&p. so smooth. thank you, almost, i will get there. i will bring you with me. the yields up 10 basis points. you are not going to let it drop. euro-dollar 1.2121. can you imagine 20 years ago and the likes of aol and yahoo! were for sale?

can you imagine what our coverage would be like? tom: that is true. i happen to be steve when they unloaded that dog and it stayed a dog and is a dog. just the back of the envelope. another current 4.9 billion -- what do you want to call it a loss? write down whatever from verizon. this has been a trained wax from day one -- rec from day one and i do not think we have the final accounting. jonathon: they are not for sale, they are exploring a sale. tom: maybe they will do the sale in bitcoin. jonathon: at least, this has not worked out. lisa: it has been a tricky combination and there is a question about big cable companies and big tech companies becoming involved in the media space. it has not worked so well. this is an ongoing theme. tom: major shout out to tim on strong who got in -- armstrong when it was happy and got out at the top. lisa: objectors.

tom: we just heard from the cdc, cautiously optimistic. we are always optimistic to speak to jennifer. good morning. i want to know the distinction that you are looking at into the weekend. we have the horrific story in india. i got yelled at three times yesterday because i did not have my mask on. what are you looking for into this weekend? >> domestically, i am also cautiously optimistic. i think the case numbers are good and i love to see them coming down. have a couple of weeks for me to declare that this is a sustained trend and feeling full confidence. the u.s. situation is looking good but all eyes are on india. it is a humanitarian emergency unfolding. this is something we cannot turn our eyes from and this is quite worrisome for india and the rest of the world because our ability

to feel normal about this pandemic and resume the life that we knew, that 2019 lifestyle depends on countries having the virus under control and india is in dire need of vaccines, but there are the place where a lot of vaccines were going to be made for the rest of the world. so i worry about the cascading impact and i think it is a wake-up call that any country that has not had a serious surge of cases remains at risk. tom: we remain at risk, but there is a confusion. we heard that on bloomberg surveillance yesterday, the confusion of the cdc. what clarity do we need so i do not get yelled at so -- because i do not have a mask on? dr. nuzzo: first of all we know that outdoor environments are safer. regardless of your vaccination status, if you are out in far away from people you do not need a mask. people who are vaccinated have more freedoms and they can do some kind of outdoor gathering

without a mask as long as they are with other vaccinated people. when it comes to the indoors you very much need a mask. vaccinated or not, as long as case numbers are high, and that is part in maintaining compliance. it is really important given the fact that most of us are protected from the vaccine but because the case numbers are high and we are hoping that nobody gets the virus after having been vaccinated, so i think it is a low risk. we know that indoors are where the transmissions tend to happen, so that is where you will see the mask use being needed for some time. jonathon: you said something so important, part of this is to maintain compliance for people who are not vaccinated. i think a lot of people who have been vaccinated just want to know the science and not the ethical decisions that certain policymakers are making. if you are not vaccinated do you need to wear a mask indoors, regardless of the behavior of other people, do you? dr. nuzzo: i am not worried

about that as a vaccinated person. if i were in a crowded place, particularly with poor ventilation i would wear one because we are close to this thing being over, why take the risk? a mask will be protective and easy to wear, but it does actually reduce the pressures for sure. lisa: at one point will be -- will we be actually able to take off masks given the pace of vaccinations and india? dr. nuzzo: that is a fair question and i would love there to be some target set. i think it is encouraging for some people to get vaccinated to say this makes it easier, that there is a light at the end of the tunnel. some people propose that once we get down to seasonal flu levels that that changes everything. we do not maintain restrictions and make people wear masks in the context of seasonal flu, so perhaps that will make it feel much easier to do that, but we have not and i wish we would. jonathon: this is a double-edged

sword when it comes to what vaccinated people can and cannot do. there is an effort to make sure that compliance from the people who are not vaccinated are not providing an accent --an incentive. do we have to start telling people the truth and allow them to make a decision? dr. nuzzo: i do not think they were telling them the truth before, i think it reflects the fact that our understanding of how protective the vaccines are and our understanding of where the virus is being transmitted. you saw the mask guidance focus on outdoors as the safest thing we can possibly do. but, i think it is important that people get vaccinated and we are seeing a -- sine -- seeing winged w --anging -- waning interest. we have spent too much time telling vaccinated people what they cannot do. the truth is that vaccines change everything and they make everything you do much safer. jonathon: in this country at least we need to do a better job

of telling people what they can do and what they cannot do. it is great to catch up. at johns hopkins center for health security, a senior scholar. it is a double edge sword. you can see the perspective from policymakers, they want to maintain compliance for certain behaviors in people who have not been vaccinated, i get that. for most people who have been vaccinated they want another science. they do not want the opinion of a policymaker worried about other people. tom: it is day by day. i will stay by that and you were great on this in the united kingdom and what they have done in the path of vaccinations. we are we going to be the second week of may or june? where are we going to be the second week of july? you have to be patient to get there and stay vaccinated. one of the cherubs got vaccinated. jonathon: i did not know that. tom: who shouted at you -- jonathon: who shouted at you, where was that, on the upper

eastside? tom: i do not know. i was having a daily cigar. jonathon: just a walk and a cigar. tom: some lady came up and beat me with a cane. lisa: right. jonathon: equities at all-time highs. this is bloomberg. ♪

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♪ >> the amount of quiddity that's out there -- of liquidity that's out there, for trillion dollars -- out there, $4 trillion in money markets, all of this augurs well for inflation. >> how much does behavior change? >> there are several megatrends here that will probably make this cycle hotter for the next several years. >> this is not just overheating. there's a risk that this is starting a fire, so inflation could be overshooting. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: upside surprise after upside surprise. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. equity futures