we focus on the companies and trading behind the house commodities with the smartest voices in the business. we are going to take a look at the top market stores of the week. the story that ruled is copper hitting $10,000 per time. also a huge rally in soft commodities. goldman sachs that -- says that raw materials prices could hit 30%. this is their charters are why. almost half of the commodity complex is in backwardation. prices today are more expensive than prices out. in this case, more expensive than three months out. romans says it points to a lack of inventory which is needed to limits maximum on the fiscal market. if there is not that safety net to fall back on, it means more backwardation and higher prices. the question is can all of this last. in the face of copper, they are announcing questions for --

surfacing. inventories on track are near the highest level in 11 months and holdings bonbons and facilities are the highest is mid 2019. the other is the gray markets. you have corn, wheat on an 8 your high. soybean, oil, highest in 13 years. you can see that manifesting in this white line. both have been subdued for years and the problem is this comes with higher food costs. this is a spiked we saw in 2010 and that preceded the spring with huge social unrest. we are seeing a similar spike now within the ag index as well as food inflation. let's get into the ring and battle it out with copper topping $10,000 for the first time since 2011. andrew cosgrove's head of commodities research for industrial metals at bloomberg intelligence.

$10,000. do we surpass it? do we get to an all-time high? andrew: i think we do surpass to an all-time high. the biggest question mark is how much more do we really from here in what period of time. alix: so what is the question, how much do we rally? andrew: the micro is the want to watch over the next few weeks. you have a big rate of change, headwinds coming through everything that has a cyclical buy. the low base effects in q2 of last year, a big spike this year, and a natural rollover. it is all about the micro. things are starting to loosen at the margin. the one thing that is still encouraging is the fact that speculative positioning is not back to its all-time high so there is still fuel for people to drive the price higher. alix: i have a chart that shows that stockpiles are started to build high in shanghai. what do you look at to show this

is where we are starting to see some inventory build or lack of demand? andrew: to your point, in china the window for shanghai is closed. the export window just opened the other day. people that have the ability to ship funds out are doing so in in small amounts. the other one is the new contract in china has also traded at a discount relative to the lma price which was not a situation that was present over the course of the last 8, nine months. it does argue that some of the speculative interest or enthusiasm may be concerning. alix: this is why i go to andrew. thanks very much. time for commodities where we come to an executive in the commodity world and today is the head of sustainable development

which is working on its green red. -- green cred. it is one of the biggest suppliers of pretty much everything in the world. in 2020, they produced 1.2 million tons of copper, 110,000 tons of nickel, 3.9 million barrels of oil and 1.9 million tons of zinc. it has two big targets. a total reduction in emissions by 2035 and a net zero goal by 2050. it plans to run down its coal portfolio by 2050. it will not sell the assets. it will focus on high-quality coal assets. it thinks it is necessary for the energy mix for years to come, even though coal is a dirty world -- dirty word. it is going to factory things like the 1, 2, and three emissions. scope three includes zeroing out emissions from products that are produced. that means when customers burn

or process a material, that can get tricky. finally, it will ramp up production in all of the metals used to the carbonized world like copper, cobalt, nickel, all used on the things from dvds to solar panels. i recently caught up and asked her how some examples can green their current operations. >> our operations in the democratic republic of congo are 100% reliant on hydro energy. the energy that we use is 100% renewable. in some other places where we are not fortunate to benefit from hydroelectricity, we are looking at agreements where we might be able to bring in renewable content to complement or replace fossil fuels. in canada, we are developing the

first fully electric operated underground mine. we are looking at technology that is available for us for designing the mine to support that technology and we are looking at how we may be able to scale the learning from that operation and apply that. alix: a big part of it is betting on the commodities that are going to be used in de-carbonization like nickel, cobalt, copper, etc. it is not like mining those are 100% green either. found and produced.etal has been how do you push hard into producing those assets while also draining them at the same time? anna: as we look forward and recognize the need to develop and identify more resources to unlock those resources, to make

them available for society, that emphasis on responsible operations will be essential. alix: do you feel like it limits where you can operate? anna: there are definitely some political constraints that may make unlocking those resources more difficult. i am not going to speculate about how that landscape might change because we don't know what that might look like in the future. there is emphasis on responsible operation, on building relationships with stakeholders restrict your ability to operate? we don't believe so. we believe a responsibly operated mine is a well-run mine. alix: we will see the supply gap with copper and other metals that will be used for de-carbonization hinges on the supply gap. i wonder if as minors operate under different principles, if it widens the supply gap, how do

you model something like that? anna: there are lots of challenges and there are a lot of problematic practices. if we are to adjust the supply gap in a commodity like cobalt which is essential to the transition to low carbon, we must recognize that while there are companies that are operating responsibly that run large minds -- mines, there are significant challenges. we are aware that we are operating in the grc, but also some of the practices associated with the mining of cobalt in congo are problematic. we have not seen that in the world of today. in the future, it depends on those supply dynamics and also some of the desires eventually that we might start to see some of the regulatory developments that are being considered today

weather in europe or in the -- whether in europe or in the united states. alix: that was my interview with anna krutikov, head of sustainable development at glencore. french winemakers in napa valley, you had me at merlot. a new wave are pouncing just as america's wineries are ready to put a cork in it. a recent survey found that over 50% of wineries would consider selling this year and there are plenty of reasons why. high market valuations, increasing competition that makes it harder for the little guy, and the omnipresent threats of wildfires. how will this change your california -- some say the winds will become more precise and elegant. it sounds like a theory i will have to try with some personal evaluation. make sure to catch us every

thursday. this is bloomberg.

matt: welcome to "bloomberg markets." we have a full lineup for you. we will speak to the ceo of marketaxess about the boom in electronic bond trading. we will discuss the growing regulation of spac's with the former ceo of td ameritrade. we deal into deals with deepak gurnani. first, a look at what is going on in markets. the s&p 500 climbing once again

about .3% to 41.95. the 10 year yield rising today at 165. it is been a long time since we have seen back-to-back gains. now we are seeing it claw back some ground against a basket of other currencies. brent crude rising to more than $68 per barrel at $68.49 as demand continues to impress during the reopening trade. speaking of demand, electronic bond trading platform marketaxess reported record trading volume last week when it reported earnings as it continues to hit new records for market shares. joining us to discuss is the ceo of marketaxess, rick mcvey. talk to me first about trading volume and the growth that you

are seeing. rick: happy to do so. it has been a great run in the first quarter is a continuation of growing adoption in each rating for global fixed income markets. it was gratifying because the market conditions were not that active in our core products during q1, yet we set a brand-new record for the quarter and revenues were up 16% year-over-year. what it reflects is that both investors and dealers are finding that electronic trading ot only more efficient, but it is also reducing cost. those economic benefits are carrying through to high levels of volume and higher levels of market share taking place electronically. matt: break down your clients for us. who is using marketaxess? rick: we are an institutional platform. if you look at our key client firms around the world, they

tend to be all of the market makers and banks and broker-dealers that work to make markets in global fixed income and global credit and all of the institutional investors as well. the beautiful thing about marketaxess is almost all of our orders are available in our marketplace. we have leveled the playing field for market makers and clients of all sizes to compete and enjoy the cost benefits of lower transaction costs on the marketaxess system. you see this global network connecting dealers and investors around the world in a unique way, creating not only knew participation in markets, but new forms of liquidity. matt: do you have any plans to move into the equity market? rick: not really. there are plenty of competitors in that space. if you look at fixed income e

-trading, the company is doing well have been here a long time. what that reflects is in an otc market when you're integrating one client at a time, it takes a long time to get to critical mass where you have enough investors and dealers on board to really create a vibrant marketplace. that is different than the equities and much of which trades on the exchanges of the futures markets. longevity has a lot to do with success and fixed income. that is where our client network is, we are particular competitive advantage and storing sorry. the market opportunity is wide open. i will give you one stat. dealers are showing greater profitability as e-trading gross. the top five banks alone had global fixed income commodity revenue at $80 billion. when i put all the e-trading companies together, that total was around $2 billion.

we have growth opportunity remaining in our core fixed income where we have competitive advantages. matt: you are in a prime position to judge how investors will react to the new tax proposals. how will your clients react and how do you think trading is going to change if he gets his proposal through? rick: it is one of the factors. standalone, tax increases are not good for corporate earnings. it looks like the economy is heading off to the races and growth numbers are likely to stay very strong for the next year or two as we come out of this pandemic. you've got such a tremendous fiscal and monetary stimulus working around the world and this will do both consumer liquidity as consumers have been

saving more money over the last year. the likelihood is that we are in for a great period of growth and economic activity around the world and the expectation is that will prevail over the tax increases that are expected. matt: there has been talk about the effect of higher capital gains tax. maybe wealthy owners or institutions would simply not sell the assets. how do you expect that to work out? rick: i think that is a possibility. i understand that that has played out that way in the past. it is a fairly small majority that the president enjoys here in the u.s. currently and there is another election just around the corner next fall. i am not sure. i think that there is a lot of negotiating to be done before anything is finalized on capital gains taxes or the proposals on the table now.

as big as he is proposing on capital gains, i have no doubt it would impact the way that people think about monetizing those gains because of that tax rate. matt: thanks so much for joining us. great to get your insight, especially at a time for such growth for your firm and at a time that looks like fundamental changes for the way investing works in america. rick mcvey of marketaxess. marketaxess competes with some of the businesses under bloomberg lp, the parent company of bloomberg news. now do something that caught my eye in germany. the country administered a record of around 1.1 million covid-19 shots wednesday after a sluggish start. jump -- remedy is helping lead the charge in the vaccination campaign with 26% of residents having at least a single dose and 75% fully covered.

on a personal level, i went to visit my own personal doctor this morning and asked him if i could get a vaccine and he told me he has 2000 people on his waiting list and he only got 18 doses to give out last week. it could be a while before i get a shot and come home. still ahead, a look at the racial wealth gap in the united states. the season finale of the bloomberg podcast "the paycheck." the important program that has been making waves all season. this is bloomberg. this is bloomberg.

matt: this is "bloomberg markets." season three of the bloomberg " paycheck" podcast takes a deep dive into the racial wealth gap

in america. how we got to where we are today and what can be done to fix it are some of the things discussed. the season finale is out anywhere you can get your podcast. bloomberg news senior executive editor jackie simmons cohosted the project going through these 8 episodes for season three. talk to me about your biggest takeaways from this project. jackie: it was a real personal journey. i used my family as an example. one of the biggest takeaways was the sheer scale of the damage that an economy essentially builds on slavery has caused -- essentially built on slavery has caused. we did the math. we calculated the value of slaves -- what they would be worth in today's dollars and we came up with $42 trillion.

we calculated the math of some of the damage that destroying black wealth has led to over the innovations. the black wall street massacre, $200 million of loss in today's money and so on. one of the biggest takeaways would be the sheer scale of the issue and how that continues in different forms in 2021. matt: absolutely. the numbers are huge. it is a gigantic topic. what was the biggest surprise to you throughout the season? jackie: there were a lot. there were a lot of unsung heroes over history. for instance, a woman in the late 1800s was the first person to initiate the idea of reparations. she was jailed for it and it never got off the ground. here we are in 2021 and it is

something we are still talking about, it is still controversial. we might see more and hear more about it. there is a proposal in congress to study it. there are sometimes heroes along the way that we discovered made part of the framing of the story. matt: we are so used to verdicts going the other way than they did in the case of derek chauvin for the killing of george floyd. do you think that gives some traction and what kind of progress can be made building on that. ? jackie: sadly, it took a tragedy to awaken the world to this discussion. it is an uncomfortable topic, but there is a lot of momentum behind it. i think there is a lot of momentum in washington right now. this proposal on the table to re-think monetary policy. treasury has made it a focus point. we are at a point where we might

be able to talk about reparations and what that looks like. not actually do reparations, but have a conversation about what that looks like. i would say in the last episode, which i would encourage people to listen to, it is an amazing bookend to the first episode which is my family's story of wealth loss and it ends with my family who is a descendant of a slaveowner and she ends with the importance of acknowledgment and truth and understanding the history in order to move forward. matt: jackie, thanks very much. a really incredible project. jackie simmons, senior executive eric -- seniors active editor. check out the entire series of the "paycheck."

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>> let's get to first word news. the united kingdom might add americans to its list of alleged

travelers next month. the head of heathrow airport set as part of a plan to reopen the u.k. in progress on covid-19 vaccinations both countries driving this decision which would allow people to travel to britain without quarantine. singapore, australia, i slammed and some caribbean destinations are being considered. -- iceland and some caribbean destinations are being considered. bill de blasio says new york will completely reopen june 1 and will be back -- september 1 and says new york will be back open september 1. york has a slow step-by-step covid-19 mitigation. china says its population grew in 2020, rebuffing concerns that it fell. the national bureau of statistics is details on this will be released in the census report although it didn't say when. earlier this week, the financial times reports that the chinese population fell last year. china's population rate has been

steadily declining as the nation grows more prosperous. u.s. food and drug administration says it's involved in a lawsuit with cigarettes. antitobacco groups say menthol provides a minty taste and suits the throat but -- and soothes the throat but can make smoking addictive. a ban has been supported on cigarettes and tobacco. this is bloomberg. amandda: welcome to bloomberg markets. matt: we welcome our audiences

each day of this error and here are the top stories we are following for you from around the world. the global ship drought -- the global microchip drought goes from apple to samsung and others flagging soft -- big revenue -- big lost revenue from the shortage and we will talk about spac and what a potential capital gains tax could mean. and we will speak with the manager from verse are on the outlook for arbitrage as piles of dry powder sit on the sidelines. what do you see in the markets, amanda? amanda: we are seeing a whole lot of nothing again. markets are going nowhere as they sit at or near record territory.

inside these broad indices, we are seeing some action as has been the case for a few weeks. it's driven by individual names so not massive momentum, communication, financials giving a strength in tech and health care and communications is facebook and google. facebook is up 5% today. it had a very strong earnings call. you can see the 10 year at 164. it did react a little yesterday. it's still well-off the recent lofty levels. the read on u.s. gdp shows a pretty phenomenal growth. the part of it that is worth going into is the personal consumption growth in the quarter at 10.7%. you or i were not alive the last time personal consumption grew

at that rate and that's saying a lot, it goes back to the 1960's step consumers are in the driver's seat. how long will that last? matt: i have to say that my lockdown consisted of pretty much shopping, shopping and shopping. other than watching tv, your online all the time and i'm not in the u.s. so i was boosting the gdp of germany and probably the u.k. and italy. i can totally understand that number rising and i don't expect it to slow down anytime soon. amanda: we did see increased demand and all kinds of things, the one we are talking about is forward which should be benefiting from -- is forward -- forward - ford. a microchip shortage globally is weighing on the outlook and it's showing up on the stock.

ford is not getting off lightly. >> ford did have its best profit in 10 years as the shortage pushed up prices so that help them but this totally overshadowed the stock plunging because ford cut its full year outlook. the chip shortage has created a huge supply and demand shortage because it drove up prices. this is where the good news and because the chip shortage is bad but it could get worse in the second quarter, slashing production by 50% step $2.5 billion is shaved off the profits this year and the ceo says this could extend into 2022. matt: jim farley is a great guy

and a total carton not. a lot of manufacturers are having similar problems. it's not just forward - ford, this is industrywide. >> this is extending way be on. apple says its revenues could be shaved by up to $4 billion in the third quarter and caterpillar says they may not be able to meet demand by the end of this year. we can also go back to cars. bmw and honda announced they will have to have production halts and for for thed lucrative theft-150, some parts of that are shut down as well. the supply/demand issue is getting steadily worse. looking at this chart, this shows you the auto inventories which are shrinking for the first months of this year. the aren't bar is for cars in the yellow is for light trucks.

it's shrinking as this microchip crisis heightens and the feeling is that things will get a whole lot worse. matt: very interesting. i can't believe they shut down f-150 production at all because it's a high-margin vehicle and i hope they keep pumping them out in dearborn. coming up, president biden takes aim at wall street and we will discuss the potential impact of his economic proposals with former tv ameritrade mogul. this is bloomberg ♪

>> we are going to get rid of the loopholes and allow -- that allow americans to make more than one million dollars per year and a lower tax rate on their capital gains on americans

who receive a paycheck. we will only affect 3/10 of 1% and the irs will crackdown on millionaires and billionaires who cheat on their taxes. matt: that was president biden taking aim at wall street and america's wealthiest tearing his address to congress last night stop for more, we welcome joe moglia, former td ameritrade ceo. he is a bloomberg/wall street correspondent. we have a full house here but joe, let me start by asking you what you take from president biden's statements there? we have been getting more information throughout the day from the white house press secretary and it seems maybe more americans will be affected

by tax increases than we thought. >> i agree with that. there were two things i take away from what the president said. he wants capital gains rates up. i'm not sure what congress will do with that. my guess is there will be a compromise. that will become an acted in 2022 but that's my guess. the other wing i feel strongly about is i think there are notches millionaires and billionaires, there are plenty of people that are not quite as upfront as they should be with regards to taxes. i think the irs taking a closer look at that is fair. i'm not saying they are cheating but paying less taxes than they should be. that has to be addressed. i am fully in favor of that. amanda: we seem to be seeing parts of the investment world and focus in one place would

make a distinction between long-term buy and hold investors and traders and it seems as though traders will be penalized. what will that do to businesses that benefit from trading volume? >> i have thought about this a lot. you got the long-term investor and that's different than you've got the individual trader that trades or poke folio but not every day. the day traders are unique. the reality is, they would have to pay taxes anyway. they were paying short-term capital gains for the most part. they were paying a higher rate to begin with. if i want to do a trade and i'm a day trader, i may complain about taxes but i don't know if that will have a major impact in terms of what i do.

as a long-term investor, it will make sure that i hold something for longer instead of trading two or three times per month. if this backs off from a corporation perspective, the amount of investment that gets me because people are worried about what the text structure will be, we will have an issue. >> i want to double down on that question because you see this massive growth in the likes of robinhood and others. there is a lot of headwind here as well. how much of a headwind is taxes on top of the other things we are seeing that could stop the party here? >> i think that's a fair question but if you are talking about the robinhood/day trader mentality, they were already paying short-term gains. what kind of impact is that

really going to have on their taxes? there is a lot of discussion right now we don't know exactly what will happen. we have to find out what reality is. it should be 42% and i don't think it will happen now. i think taxes will definitely go up but if i want to do a trade, if i'm an active trader and i know i want to trade gamestop or wherever the equity might be, i don't think they will increase my tax rates will impact that. i am already paying short-term gains. >> let's look at specs. spac that is already startings. from the sec that might impact market the most when it comes to capital deals? >> there is an oversupply of spacs but with regard to the

sec, i think there a couple of things they may look at now that would be great for the marketplace. the first is the safe harbor deal. that basically tells a normal company that you can talk about anything you want. going forward though, -- i'm sorry, safe harbor allows a company today that has no revenues that's just starting out but they have this incredible control. safe harbor should not be protecting that because the typical in investors look at those numbers but those numbers are not real numbers. the typical lockup for the sponsor of six months, i think they should extend that.

matt: you touched on the robinhood retail trader/gamestop and we watched the extended hearings in one of the issues was people took issue with the pay to play rebates issue. our retail traders disadvantaged if there trade data is jeopardized? are you concerned about that? >> when you say pay to play rebates, you are talking about affordable? matt: yes. >> it's this simple, i do a trade and it goes for my broker and then it goes to the market stuff he gives that price and it has to be 1.5% and he keeps the spread and the rest go to the broker. the broker keeps it and gives the rest to the client. what ameritrade cap and gave to

their client was 3 to 1. schwab today has 93% of price improvement. you get the best price in the market. it's easy for them to do a trade but behind all this, is incredible technology. somebody has to pay for that stuff it's the payment for order flow that helps brokerage firms pay for that technology. i think that is fair on both ends. amanda: i have to ask what you think of the current level of this year's speculation and some have said it's driven in part by that the client no longer pays full price and so free trading is encouraging, perhaps some

excess speculation and engagement levels. is there an over speculation in the market today? >> there is no question about that. it's different for the typical trader in the long-term investor. for the traders we are talking about now, most of that is speculation. i think they are entitled to do that. read it pulled out the gamestop thing. i thought that was incredibly well put together. if you have a day trader client base, you got to do a better job no matter how much it goes up, it sometimes it goes down and we have to do a match -- a much better job for the day trader. you have to be able to educate what that means.

if you have high margins and things start to blow up, what does that mean for you? we have to do a better job in education and helping them understand what happens. that absolutely happened. amanda: great to have you with us. i wish we had longer. the former ceo chair of td ameritrade. still ahead, we are talking about the dry powder in private equity which is lending a lot of strength to the m&a space and we will talk to someone focused on that.

amanda: this is bloomberg markets. there has been some research in terms of a white paper as far as

the current environment for mergers and acquisitions and you could call it the goldilocks environment. record amounts of cash in private equity and friendly deals getting done so a low failure rate step deepak granani is with us. you lay out the fact that it's a great environment out there that the spreads are so narrow which is where you make your money. you make it up and leverage as i understand. what is the secret to making money in this environment? >> thank you very much, it's a pleasure to join you in the discussion. as you rightly said, we believe it is close to a goldilocks environment. it has been strong since the beginning of last year into the first quarter, the number of failures are at roughly half what we have seen historically.

we believe the spreads are close to medium. when folks look at the spreads, spreads, you have to adjust for that. we believe that the spreads are close to medium and slightly better. it's a very strong environment for this strategy. matt: p/e has had so much cash for so long that it created some problems in that they are all seemingly after the same target and then prices are high. how much further can this go on? do you see the cash pile depleting at all? >>the b flow, we sow 100 deals announced in the second half of last year.

it had slowed down because of covid. we so 100 deals in the second half of last year. we see this globally. 81 deals in the first quarter of this year. i believe the flow continues to be strong and it's driven both by strategic buyers as well as by lbo's. it's at the highest level since it's been measured. you look at trade balance sheets, the amount of cash is at the highest level of the century. as things normalize, we are getting into a more normalized environment. we believe that the current level of activity we are seeing in the high level is expected to continue. amanda: carried interest changes

, do you worry about a chill effect in p/e it's too early to say. ? >> we don't think the strategic buyers are worried and the amount of cash they have is very active so in that guard, it's something we will continue to monitor but it's too early for us to make a call on that. matt: we have to book a longer time with you next time. we appreciate your insight on these issues. four amanda lange, i am matt miller, this is bloomberg ♪

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ed: nancy pelosi said she

believed 75% of members of congress are vaccinated against covid-19. >> it is a matter of privacy to know who is or who is in. i could encourage them or make it known to encourage others to get vaccinated. we cannot do that. you would hope that science would guide them to protect themselves, their family members, and the good colleagues in the workplace to get vaccinated. ed: the house speaker's comments come following president biden's first address to congress. we saw fewer lawmakers following masks and social distancing mandates. senate finance chairman says student loan payments would be entitled to earn matching 401(k) retirement contributions