>> this economy is very resilient. now it is working with the private sector and the public sector. >> the only real surprise for me this earnings season is the magnitude of the beats. >> whether you are growing at 9% or 6%, to labor market i think is going to remain very strong for at least the next few quarters. >> we are in the third inning of a continuous economic cycle that will continue to bear fruit, so i don't think this is growth -- is peak growth. >> the question is how long is transitory. it is certainly not long-term. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: getting back to work. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. equity futures up 0.5% on the s&p 500. tom keene, some big data set up

ahead for this week. tom: big data will come on friday. this is an absolutely original jobs day. as jon alluded to in the previous hour, we really see the migration on the bloomberg survey. i lose count of the houses now, over one million. morgan stanley and maybe one or two others were lonely there. they are not lonely anymore. it is an uncountable one million jobs plus. jonathan: look at this number, 2.1 million is your high estimate going into friday. the low is 700,000. the median is 978,000. anyway you cut it, these are going to be big numbers. most economists expect it to continue beyond april, may, june, july. we need to keep seeing these figures to take a bigger bite into the losses we have seen. tom: bruce chasm and'-- bruce chasm and -- bruce kazman's

comments in the last hour interesting. you wonder what the wage dynamics are along the spread of the different levels of income. jonathan: it is a compositional issue. we got a flavor of this last year. you have to reverse engineer the story for what we are about to see maybe this coming friday. lisa: that has been the white house's push ahead of these, that we could see a decline of wages on average because it is a reverse of what we saw last year, with lower wage individuals coming back into the work. one other thing bruce chasm and said, the k-shaped -- bruce said, the k-shaped recovery wouldn't necessarily affect the dynamism of growth. i wonder if the fed is going to pay more attention to this verities -- to these disparities and what the indications are. jonathan: do you get the sense that the fed is paying attention to the economic data? they are so worried right now about the signaling that

the chairman keeps same we have seen one payrolls report even though we have in far more than that. lisa: the issue is that markets still agree that we are going to see a return to the low-inflation dynamic if you start to see inflation being priced in more meaningfully and bond markets, that will prompt a response. tom: we've got up the banner on tv, about one million jobs. [exc --[coughing] excuse me. jonathan: you are excused. tom: we've lost track of reality. jonathan: i agree with you. we are talking about real companies hiring real people, and that is a huge effort. we are also having a conversation about labor shortages as well. bank of america saying labor shortages are a challenge. we estimate that 4.6 million workers remain out of the labor force still due to covid. it is hard to hire. tom: i'm sorry i was coughing. the was to search sauce -- the

worcestershire sauce just didn't make it over the weekend. [laughter] jonathan: you enjoy your drink. let me get you through the price action. equities advance 0.5% on the s&p. 4600 is the price target at credit suisse. 4195 is where we trade right now. yields higher in the last couple of minutes, 1.64 56%. euro-dollar at the moment, we advanced 0.3%, $1.2055. lisa: we will be getting ism figures at 10:00 a.m. expectation is for continual improvement there. hot market and manufacturing shortages persist. joe biden will speak about reopening schools and pitch his families plan to the electorate directly. there's been a divide. popular support, still a lot of pushback in the democratic party as well as with republicans.

at 2:20 p.m., fed chair jay powell will be speaking. he will be talking about substantial further improvement in the labor market. people will be parsing to see whether he is looking to the one million expected job print for the month of april and possibly taking away from it signs that perhaps we have to start talking about tapering. jonathan: that sounded like a tom keene promo -- tom keene promo. this is what's coming up. don't watch it. here's why. [laughter] lisa: mi supposed to lie? jonathan: i'm not arguing. it's always the tone, tom. tom: it is way important that we talked to jon golub. jonathan: i agree. credit suisse, we were just having a nice friday morning, lisa and i. tom was away. then the email came through from the team at credit suisse, s&p 500 to 4600 on stronger

earnings. let's bring in jonathan golub right now. why the change? jonathan g: more than anything else, this is an earnings story that our earnings estimate for the s&p was the highest on wall street, and it is just too low. the numbers are coming into strong. banks are beating by 35%. tech is beating by almost 30%. industrials, discretionary companies are up 50%, 60% on average. ultimately, we needed to increase the earnings outlook. that was what drove it. as we see that the overall stock market price was right on our tail, we moved the numbers up. tom: i've got to congratulate you. you are looking at the guy who came out of january and said, if you sell tech and go to everything else, you're going to be out of your mind. in hindsight, you look like a genius. what do i do with tech?

they didn't move on earnings. no surprise there. are they part of your list to 5000? jonathan g: yes and no. we actually think that boring old economists -- look, i've been a gross guy for a long time, and every stock has its moment in the sun. i don't know if this is the moment in the sun for tech. i thick this is the time for old economy stocks because these are companies with big fixed overhead, that tend to respond to the kind of stimulus we are seeing proposed by the biden adminstration and the general overview we are seeing in the economy. lisa: can we get to 4600 on the s&p without a commensurate rise in yields, without a readthrough to the bond market? how much is there a feedback loop air? -- loop here? jonathan g: first of all, my expectation is that we see interest rates rise a little bit

from here. if you look at how stocks respond, they want higher interest rates because what we are seeing right now with the 10 year bond yield at 1.6% and fed funds at zero, it is a sign the economy is not yet on stable footing. so the market once to see the demand for capital as signs that things are healthier. if we had a healthier interest rate closer to 2% by the end of the year, the stock market is higher, not lower. jonathan f: 2022 eps is an upgrade, too. the interesting thing about this note is it includes a tax haircut as well. can you set the stage for 2022 already? jonathan g: this was actually a big discussion point. what the convention is on wall street is until the tax changes happen, you would more than, but the reality is the market is not ignoring it, so we basically said we know the taxing is likely to happen. the consensus view is that biden doesn't get his 28%, but that

the tax rate goes to 25%. that is about a 4% hit to earnings. a 4% hit to earnings is a big deal, but the earnings this season are beating by 22%. so we moved our number, but if you compare me to other strategists on wall street, i could get to 25% if you ignore the tax. it is a big number. tom: did you move on revenue gross up, or is it march resiliency, or both? jonathan g: first of all, we are seeing both revenues and margins are seeing a lot of flexibility. whenever you see, economy reopening after a session, it is always the marginalized where all of that incremental upside is going to be. the one mistake that analysts and investors, portfolio managers, they always underestimate is operating

leverage. how much a small change in economic growth creates huge change in profit margins. that was really the big deal here. jonathan f: before you go, i want to gauge sentiment. when you hit send to clients on friday, how well received with this? what was the response like? jonathan g: you're going to laugh. the single biggest comment we got was, come on, you don't think we can get to 5000? [laughter] i'm not saying we are going to go there. we will eventually get there. tom: quote that right there. jonathan f: without the time forecast. jon, good to catch up, as always. jonathan golub of credit suisse. most bullish on the street right now, it is the email of the weekend from any people. s&p 500 4600 on stronger earnings, red-hot economy, stronger revisions and surprises. tom: just for the bears, we've got to get them going, the pendulum of gloom. we've got to put it up there.

it's a banner, for radio. it's incredibly important that you see dollops says 5000 -- that golub says 5000. jonathan: at some point. [laughter] coming up on our program, david rosenberg, rosenberg research chief economist and strategist, for the real take on what is happening with inflation in america. yields higher by couple of basis points this morning, 1.6 420%. euro-dollar, $1.2054, up about 0.3%. 4190 five on s&p 500 futures. tom: yield comes in nicely. the trend is there. to your point, leading off with the jobs day come of this we have never seen before going into friday. jonathan: how the market responds to that data will be really interesting. a number of weeks ago we saw it with cpi and retail sales, upside surprises. the bond market went the other way.

what do the stoxx do? not a lot. we are looking for a massive number this friday. that's only one half of the story. the other half is how the market responds to it. we are going to talk about that, too. from new york city this morning, good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. heard on bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm rick -- i'm ritika gupta. warren buffett said when he steps down as ceo of berkshire hathaway, he's likely to be replaced by gregory able, in charge of the company's noninsurance businesses. he's been seen as the most likely candidate to replace buffett. he's kept his succession picks a closely guarded secret. another sign of a gradually return -- a gradual return to normalcy in europe. they have proposed easing

restrictions on travel for those who have received a vaccination. in india, another sign of a backlash to how prime minister narendra modi is handling the world's worst coronavirus outbreak. modi's party lost an election in a key state he has visited frequently. meanwhile, the number of deaths in india blamed on the virus set a daily record yesterday of almost 3700. the economy in hong kong has finally turned corner. it posted the fastest growth since 2010 after declining for a record six quarters. hong kong gdp rose 7.8% in the first quarter from a year earlier. that beat all estimates in a bloomberg survey of economists. the city is recovering not just from a pandemic, but also social unrest before that. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta.

this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ sec. yellen: it's spread out

quite evenly over eight to 10 years, so the boost to demand is moderate. the federal reserve has the tools to address inflation should it arise. jonathan: if it becomes a problem, it will be someone off this problem to tackle -- someone else's problem to tackle. not my words. secretary janet yellen speaking over the weekend. some really interesting essays on this. from new york city, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. equity futures up 22 on the s&p, 41 96. we advance 0.5%. euro-dollar, $1.2055. tom: we will see as we get through the week. continue to earnings this week after the tech frenzy of last week. right now on washington, and what we heard from secretary yellen, emily wilkins joins us, bloomberg government reporter. yellen is acting cbo-ish,

looking at an eight to 10 year timeline. i'm not sure anyone you know in washington has an eight to 10 year timeline. emily: that is the timeline for the spending for the bill that has been proposed. the idea is not that this is going to all come out at once. it will be spent over a period of time. that's one of the ways we are seeing secretary yellen, as well as other members of the administration, try to get out ahead of those expected republican tacts, saying this is way too much spending, inflation is going to rise. democrats know they did those attacks last time. they are anticipating them this time. you just saw secretary yellen tried to get out in front of them. tom: the timeline here, 554 days till the 2022 election. that's the timeline that matters, right? emily: let's be clear, 2022 started the day after the 2020

elections ended. it is on everyone's mind, and you are seeing it here with this next big spending package. the democrats are saying we are going to face a really tough midterm election. the party in power always does. how do we overcome it? we need to go back to the voters and say, look, we went big. we got you the child tax credits. we got you preschool, community college, we taxed to the rich, we gave you bridges, etc. that's why within the democratic party, there's a lot of concern about potentially negotiating with republicans and getting that bill smaller and smaller. jonathan: how would you frame this? is this an effort to win the midterms or to get something done before they lose them at arms -- lose the midterms? emily: yes, both of these. jonathan: the reason i raise this is because there's a feeling maybe that they voted for president joe biden because they did not want the noise of a repeat trump administration.

they did not want the noise of washington, d.c. i have to say, it is noisy in a different way. a lot of policy making going on. maybe this is not what people voted for. emily: you're absolutely right. according to republican polling, more than half of americans don't feel like president biden and congressional democrats are moving in a bipartisan way. this line we keep hearing from the white house, the last package was bipartisan because republican voters and local officials supported it, that is not playing with a lot of americans who said it doesn't matter, you didn't compromise with the republicans that we sent to washington. i think you touched on something really important here. this divide within the democratic party. you see more moderate democrats once again, senator joe manchin, but a number of others as well say the way for us to win in 2022 is to make sure we are working with republicans, getting americans that bipartisanship. but the more progressive

democrats, you have them take two different tracks here. number one, they are saying we need to go big make sure we went , and the other track is saying if this is a repeat of 2010, where we pass the affordable care act and then lost, at least we know we got something big done that will last for years and years to come. lisa: the concept of bipartisanship has also been funneled through the spin cycle because you've got joe biden coming out and saying bipartisanship is there when you look at popular support for some of these proposals, and other people saying it doesn't count because there's not bipartisanship it comes to republicans and democrats on capitol hill. today, president biden will be trying to pitch this directly to the electorate. how much does that argument fly, that there is enough popular support to justify a push towards the democrats? emily: there are certainly some people who agree that it is bipartisan, but the majority of individuals at this point feel like resident biden and

congressional democrats have been really partisan and how they have approached things. but there's another thing that might happen is president biden and vice president harris, and other white house officials, going around the country to pitch this bill and have those individuals put pressure on their lawmakers. look where president biden is going. he's going to virginia. he's going to louisiana. that state has a number of republicans in congress at this time. so it seems like they are really trying to sell this bill well before it gets to the point where lawmakers will actually be voting on it. tom: what is that calendar date? forget about the voting on it. when do we go from x trillion dollars down to billions or maybe a little bit about that? emily: i am not sure we are dropping below $1 trillion. remember what we saw less time with the covid spending package. democrats did not want to go very much below that $1.9 trillion they put out there. but we are going to be seeing some more things from the house when they get in mid-may.

we are going to start seeing proponents of this pass-through committees. july 4 is when speaker needs pelosi once the bill out of the house and to the senate. granted, plenty of hurdles there. the senate is looking at some kind of final passage by perhaps late september, early october. jonathan: great to see you, as always. it is normal for there to be criticism of a process, normal for there to be criticism of a policy. what is interesting this time around is where the criticism comes from this time. it is not just from republicans. it is also from moderates and the democratic party. it's also from progressives, the likes of blanchard summers. it's very intriguing. tom: it's intriguing, but it is coming up against reality. as we mentioned with marty schenker an hour ago, the retirement of the gentlelady from the 17th congressional district in illinois is a huge deal. one estimate i saw is seven more bodies will go out the door, and that is a house majority

difference. jonathan: the reason i asked about the psychology of the moment, i am trying to understand the approach here. is this window narrowing before they lose or is the narrowing to get something done before they lose? i think there are two different approaches here. tom: i think that is the debate, well said. and i don't have an answer. lisa: i don't have an answer, but i do have some statistics i was looking at this morning in terms of why biden is doing what he is doing. if you take a look at some of the wealth disparities in the u.s., they are widening more then other developed nations. this is a backdrop that has been absolutely exacerbated by the pandemic, where last year you saw the wealthiest individuals and for trillion dollars -- individuals add $4 trillion to their wealth. jonathan: the criticism, though, is not about providing relief. it is what relief is. if you earn $50,000 in a state outside of california, new york, where is that stimulus? lisa: and doesn't go towards

evening this cap in a material way? joining us shortly is ben emons of medley global advisors. equities up 22 on the s&p. yields come up 1.64% on tens -- yields, 1.64% on tens. this is bloomberg this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, here's the price action off the back of a monthly gain on the s&p 500. we add a little bit of weight to it. we caught up with jonathan golub of credit suisse a little bit ago, looking for 4600 on the s&p 500, the biggest one on the street. we advance about 23 points on the s&p, about 0.5%, as we go into payrolls friday. get to the unemployment rate. it is 6% at the moment. the median estimate for friday is that it drops to 5.7%. morgan stanley out at 5.6%. isaac we have to reflect on how quickly this labor market has moved relative to -- i think we have to reflect on how quickly this labor market has moved

relative to last year. june of last year, unemployment falling back to 5.5% year-end 2022. that is how much quicker this unemployment rate has shifted lower. mohamed el-erian's argument this morning is that this is a central bank now held hostage by its own framework. i think the issue a lot of people have is nothing they should have conviction that inflation is coming. it is that they should be humble enough to accept that there is to weigh risk here. -- there is two-way risk here. tom: they have an underlying theory they are working with here. it is an underlying theory wrapped around the politics of the moment as they perceive it in america. jonathan: i'm with you, but do they have the flexibility they might need? when ticker terry yellen was talking to nbc over the weekend, saying we have the tools to address it, are they anywhere near set up communication wise to have that conversation? tom: i am sounding like the

wonderful richard timberlake of the georgia school, a huge supporter of this program in his lifetime. it is real simple. they will change after the fact. jonathan: that is the new commitment, isn't it? tom: that's the history. jonathan: in the bond market, twos, tens, 30's look like this. last week, yields were higher on the week by about seven basis points or so. 1.6420% on tens. isaac we had one mention of gareth in the first hour -- i think we had one mention of gareth in the first hour. tom: sheffield was a real game. jonathan: it was a real game. over the weekend, tom's football club. last week i went for a drink and put out a picture on social, and the thing that people missed is that tom had a spring with his

spring training padres t-shirt. is that what that is? that's your new team? tom: no, there's two league, the american league and the national league. every year, i pick a national league team to follow. this year, it's the padres. they are fun. jonathan: you want them in the world series? tom: yes, very good. jonathan: yields up about a basis point this morning. here's romaine. romaine: i always appreciate the wide-ranging conversations in the morning here. [laughter] we will start out with some of the big tech stocks. tesla under pressure, coming off of two straight weekly losses. they actually traded below $700, right now hovering around $704. there's a little bit of attention being paid now to its relationship with chinese authorities and how it deals with the government over there. you can't really thumb your nose at the chinese government the way you do here in the u.s. the interesting report out of

reuters this morning saying tesla has agreed to sit down with china on at least four occasions to deal with some of the regulatory concerns. to the upside, twitter of about 1% in the premarket. kathy wood's arc fund posting up there. apple shares fractionally higher, but that big trial in california with regard to epic games, the maker of "fortnite," this has a lot of ramifications for how apple, microsoft, google set their fee structure for app developers. it will be interesting to see if this kicks off here. there's been a lot of rumblings that apple actually needs to settle this. a few other names to keep an eye on, these are analysts giving upgrade to draftkings, saying legalization is going to continue. carvana also getting an upgrade, 3.4% in the premarket. and chewy, they had an

initiation over at guggenheim. the end consumer provides chewy with an annuity-like stream of cash flow. basically, you can't give up on this. you've got to keep pampering your dog or cat. tom: why doesn't amazon put them out of their misery? i'm doing the best i can. on a monday morning as we reset, and again, the jobs report, we are going to try to fold and economic theory here with what we've got this week. best to do that, ben emons with medley global advisors, formerly with pimco, known for writing really thoughtful essays on our federal reserve moment. none of us know the shock of one million jobs. michael feroli at jp morgan says

some 7 million all in will happen quickly as well. it comes down to the physics of the word magnitude. give us the magnitude at one million jobs -- that one million jobs symbolizes for chairman powell. ben: good morning, tom. it would be a magnitude because if you do get that kind of number friday, you could start drawing a line with that string of data he keeps talking about, and it would be acknowledgment that progress is being made. the economy is strong, so you could expect that number friday comes out at a high-end. i think for markets, it is the same story. you can start drawing the line, and making the assessment that the economy is really getting back to where we came from pre-pandemic, and that should ultimately lead to normalization of interest rates. jonathan: although people expect that to be wait -- lisa: although people expect that to

be way down the line. how much is that the issue, the fed being held hostage as markets are increasingly leveraged to their keeping rates at zero for the foreseeable future and continuing to buy bonds, and they are concerned about causing a massive market disruption? this is sort of chicken and egg. this could keep going for a long time. ben: it could come of it i do think the concerns expressed by various investors now coming out saying it should maybe be a good idea that we start winding down some of these purchases, and some technical factors come up now, too. it seems like the short interest and some of the major treasury etf's is building. so i think there is some sense in the marketplace that you can go on like that for a while, but not to an extreme. markets will self-correct. we saw this with the spac market. i do think that is in the works here. while this data comes out stronger, the is held hostage

perhaps, but the markets will ultimately do its work for it. jonathan: mohamed el-erian this morning and "the ft" making some of those arguments. maybe that was the objective for this federal reserve, but not on the balance sheet. we are not having a conversation about hiking interest rates right now. we are talking about tapering. that wasn't part of the reaction function around inflation and this shift of a new framework. we are talking about tapering bond purchases. when people say there's froth, what are the targets of the market -- the pockets of the market that using are burning a little too hot? ben: it is definitely happening in the equity space itself. there's so much anticipation of this moment of fully reopening the economy that i think is over ability, and it has shown itself , earlier this year, that is rates went up, some of that started to moderate. at the same time, i think that

idea about tapering is well communicated so far. so i think at the same time, yields are going to react to the economy. that's going to take out some of that froth that we may be seeing in the equity market. tom: what is the magnitude of the real yield? and i don't mean the esteem of the show. i mean the idea of the move that we could see in the real yield. do you perceive that we get back up to zero? ben: it could be because if you have an economy that looks now like a 10% economy, if you take the re -- the real-time indicators, real yields should go up. it should read like they higher nominal gdp and productivity. tom: i mean, did you think we should extend "the real yield"

to an hour show? ben: yes, and i'd love to come on that show. [laughter] jonathan: ben, i appreciate you using your appearance on "bloomberg surveillance" to try to lobby for an appearance on "bloomberg real yield." tom: that's what all the experts do. if you went to an hour on "the real yield," you and i wouldn't hang out at trendy restaurants with lisa in soho. jonathan: how many drinks deep for you on friday? tom: six or seven. we were going north to south in italy. [laughter] jonathan: he was shouting at the waiting staff at the other end of the restaurant. jonathan: with my it -- tom: with my italian. jonathan: talking about the federal reserve this morning in "the financial times, i think when i read through the piece, i

don't hear someone that is agreeing with larry summers. i don't hear someone agreeing with secretary yellen. i just hear someone saying let's stay open-minded about this. lisa: the idea that it is a concern if markets get too ahead of themselves, this i think is being really exhibit hide and amplified by the road -- by the likes of robert kaplan, that this could pose a risk to the fed's plan to recovery. this is a crucial thing we are not hearing that much of from the fed. tom: thank you, lisa, for mentioning that. the clarifying point is dr. el= -- dr. el-erian and kaplan have enjoyed losing money. clarida is the same way. lisa: i've enjoyed losing money. [laughter] tom: you are right expert.

-- you are an expert. i'm not an expert because i am in triple leveraged all caps, thank you. -- all cash, thank you. jonathan: wouldn't people like to see lisa on the fomc? [laughter] don't we need a legit hock back at the federal reserve? tom: it would be like the second coming of wayne angel. jonathan: what would be your original fed? where would you like to live? [laughter] lisa: oh boy. jonathan: there's minneapolis. which one would you go? lisa: look at those markets. jonathan: coming up, howard forman, the yale public health professor. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the u.s. denies it is close to a deal with iran to revive the nuclear agreement and sanctions. officials also denied an iranian report that the u.s. has agreed

to a prisoner swap in the release of $7 billion in frozen iranian funds. they are trying to revive the deal abandoned by former president trump. bitcoins domination of coital crypto -- of total cryptocurrency market is declining. it suggests room for more than one winner among digital tokens. bitcoin accounts for about 46% of total crypto market value of $2.3 trillion, down from roughly 70% at the start of the year. container shipping rates are heading higher again. the rate for a 40 foot container from shanghai to los angeles hit $4400 last week, the highest in data going back to 2011. prices are being driven by unrelenting consumer demand and companies restocking. orders for new container ships have jumped the most since 2007.

global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> everything is happening at warp speed. they declined we saw a year ago,

coming out of the hole, companies executing, moving remotely, big government spending. i think that has blown a lot of people away. jonathan: that was joe quinlan, mayor -- joe quinlan, merrill and bank of america head of market strategy. at the lows, still out there with a 3800 price target, bank of america, citi, around 3900 at morgan stanley. so still, there are people that think there are a -- that think there's a sizable move lower ahead of us. tom: i saw somebody mentioned it as a global economy this week. right now on the pandemic, howard forman joins us, a

radiologist, but far more than that. the builder of public health and studies at yale university. we are thrilled dr. forman could join us this morning. what is so different now is in this modern america and our modernity, we use technology. we have a technocratic solution to everything. how does a technocracy of america try to come out of a pandemic? dr. forman: well, it is not easy because we have different classes of people now. people that were able to work very well from home, who had very low exposure rates to the virus, but none the le ss, their lives turned upside down. then we have the essential workers. they had to run the buses, run the trains, move the food and

other goods back and forth between people, and their infection rates were much higher throughout this country. so we have to rationalize that over time, but recognize that we do suffer almost as a country from posttraumatic stress disorder of a tight. we have been through a trauma. we are continuing to feel the reverberations and the zaidi that exist even after the trauma is starting to wane. -- and anxiety that exist even after the trauma is starting to wane. i certainly have not said before, we are getting to a point now where we are seeing and experiencing what is closer to a bad flu to what we experience earlier, or what laces like india are experiencing now. we should start to think about how we manage a bad flu as opposed to how we managed the pandemic that wiped off about

600,000 people and maybe more from the united states. jonathan: they are really strong words to come from someone like yourself. as you say, this is not something you said before. what would you suggest underpins the reluctance of health officials to say what you just said? dr. forman: we've made a lot of mistakes over the last 14 months, and nobody wants to fall prey to hubris. you look at modi in india saying in march that this was now over. i don't think anyone wants to fall prey to that. it is much easier for me to know that i have 90% or 95% likelihood of being correct then it is for a public official who really holds that very strong responsibility to the entire public and their hands. so i don't really dismiss their difficulty in moving faster in that way. i do think that what we have learned is that the fda as an

entity within government can move very quickly. the cdc needs to be much more deliberate, and may be given the fact that this is a pandemic, this is a crisis, we need to hold them accountable for being a little bit quicker and analyzing data in a manner that is in the fast-moving nature of this pandemic. lisa: you say basically no one wants to say it is over, but there's a difference between saying it's over and saying this is something we are going to have to live with, that we are going to have to exist with the coronavirus being here in a perpetual fashion. how much do you say that at this point? because we've gotten to a place where the most at risk people are not necessarily going to be at the biggest

because they have been inoculated, and the risks of continuing with social distancing and not having in school is greater? dr. forman: and i think we are moving that way. i think the people who were equivocating about school 3, 6, 9 months ago, which included me early in the pandemic, are those that now feel that we must be back-to-school. yale university, my employer, is going to be back to a very close to normal function by the end of august and probably most of the summer as well. i think we are going to have to watch the way private actors respond as well because private actors are the ones that can make the bold moves and show the public that this works just as they were able to do bold moves a year ago, relative to where we were in the pandemic at that time. lisa: talking about those moves, what would you do with respect to some of the travel restrictions currently in the united states, with some of the guidance from the cdc as to what people who are vaccinated can do? dr. forman: most of those are being lifted in most regions.

there are parts of the country where the pandemic is still worse. michigan was, oregon is. so it is really hard to make a blanket proposal, but i do think lifting travel restrictions in keeping with vaccination is a reasonable thing, and i think it also signals to people that we know that once you are vaccinated, you are very safe. you are not perfectly safe, but you are not perfectly safe from the flu either in a typical season. so you are very safe at this point once you are vaccinated. there is one big uncertainty ahead, which is what is the duration of the immunity after vaccination. is my immunity going to wane by september, october? there is a lot of uncertainty still out there, but i think we have plans for that as well in terms of worcester shots, and

terms of managing and monitoring variance. i think we are going to do well with that. jonathan: please come back soon. it's been good to catch up, good to hear from you. some really powerful words there. an irrational fear of covid-19 in this country. that does not mean there's no risk to covid-19. it would be ridiculous to make that statement. just an irrational fear relative to what the risks actual are -- the risks actually are. tom: the timeline is so difficult here. we have come so far, so fast. where are we june 3? where are we july 3? anyone who tells you we know where we are is making it up. jonathan: i hope in a better place, but people's assessment of the risk suggests that in some areas, they believe that hospitalizations are 50% of covid infections. something has gone badly wrong in this country communicating the risks around this virus. tom: my reading of history is every single pandemic is laden with misinformation. this is no different.

the difference now is that is out on social. jonathan: we have to talk about the commercialization of cable news in america, that there are still live death counts right in front of you on the tv screen every time you turn it on in the states. tom: go get vaccinated. if you are scared stiff, wait, then go get vaccinated. jonathan: this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> it's pretty simple to recognize we are in the midst of a boom in the u.s. >> this economy is very resilient, and now it is working with the private and public-sector. >> whether you are growing at 9% or 6%, the labor market is going to remain strong for the next few quarters. >> is this a year or 18 months? it is certainly not long-term. >> until the changes happen, you ignore them. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz.