this moment of fully opening the economy. >> we are potentially going to see faster prices in consumer prices and wages. >> how long is transitory? months, year, 18 months? it is certainly not long-term. >> as soon as the long changes happen, you ignore them but this is a market side story. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom king, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. >> good morning, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance" alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz. i'm jonathan ferro. equities future, down around one point -- .1%. i'm not going to say there's a lot to get excited about. it is a quiet start to price action. tom: i think it is nuanced. let's get it out front. i have been watching ecl go. we are ready to click one million on the survey on payrolls. 995,000 gets my attention. jon: i will say what gets my

attention is the negative view to price action we have seen in response to data and earnings over the last several weeks. we saw that with the ifn. if you do not beat, you will get hanged. we saw that with earnings and then with the data. if you do beat, upside, you don't get nasa rewards. if you miss, you see things moving. -- don't get rewards. if you miss, you see things moving. tom: absolutely. and what is so important on nuance tuesday is you see the yield structure of europe ever modestly pulling away from the yield structure of america, a greater negative real yield in the united states. he mentioned this morning that germany comes up. jon: phenomenal yield, approaching zero, and that has a lot of people's attention. i think the jo -- lower the yield is -60 basis points at the start of 2021 and we are inching back to zero. lisa: can i take a moment to

stop, nuance tuesday at noon, there is something going on. [laughter] jon: you can just say they are nuanced instead of saying they are boring. lisa: i do think it will be very interesting to see where yields break here. there seems to be a consensus of stability in yields that is under pitting the risk on move. i think that on equities. there has been a pause here in the rally, but you are not seeing that in credit with the spreads. the extra yields investors earn for high-yield edge shrinking to the lowest since 2007, the risk premium collapsing because this is very much risk on. jon: where are we, 285? lisa: 286. jon: unreal. lisa: honestly, again, default risk is not on the table. the idea people are not worried about it or worried about the question being too small to observe higher yields ahead. jon: don't you think the people appreciate the honesty? lisa: you mean nuance? [laughter] jon: this will be slower this

morning as you get ready for work. it's ok. futures look like this on the s&p 500. i went to the price action. 4182, another upgrade today from rbc. 4325 from 4100 on the s&p. we come in at .1%. euro-dollar clinging to 120, a very small -- 1.20, a very small break for that. we had a break at 100 ash 1.60 and we are back through that level now, up two basis points. your yield on a maturity in america, 1.60%. lisa: i am shocked by how stable yields have been on the expectations based on inflation strength we see in the underlying market. i'm interested in the data we will be getting out today. i'm watching 8:30 a.m.. i'm just going to keep talking, tom. there's an expectation it'll go even deeper negative, another all-time record high for the deficit in the united states. the interesting asked backed --

interesting aspect of this debate in u.s. money into household pay checks has funneled into china, thailand, south korea because this is where the production is happening and we are importing record amounts relative to what we are exporting. 10:00 a.m., u.s. march factory orders and durable goods orders, the demand supply. tom: [indiscernible] lisa: tom, really? this is nuanced i will tell you that. this is limited by some chip shortages. we saw that very much in the ice and data yesterday highlighting the record long wait times in order to get goods. some of these incredible disruptions. how much do we see factory orders surging as people try to get ahead of expected delays? today, the g7 foreign ministers are meeting in london. i'm looking to see what kind of agreement there is on travel. how much are people going to try to go to vaccination passports in some way to open the

transatlantic corridor? jon:jon: i thought that was excellent. tom: it was good. jon: that was excellent. one serious story we need to touch on, reaching heard immunity is unlikely in the u.s. experts believe. that was in the new york times and the last 24 hours. it has got a ton of attention because the average vaccination in america and our tracker is 2.2 9 million doses per day. we have dropped off by almost one million. tom: i get it. to be honest, most of the experts i have talked to never said we would get a herd immunity. it is something the media fell in love with. what i would say that is far more important is this pfizer story from the new york times, that they migrate the age from 16 down to the vicinity of 12. to me, that is a really interesting story. jon: we might get more news on that later. looking forward to catch up with the john hopkins teams later this hour -- team later this hour. joining us now is the eve economist, ian shepherdson. are you back in the office?

ian: i am back in the office. i am on a proper camera with a proper earpiece. jon: slowly getting back to normal. in your research, i picked out one line, the survey points to core pc inflation north to 2.25 percent. that would test the fed's resolved. would it? ian: 2.75 actually. i don't know whether that is my misprint. anyway, 2.7 five would. test the fed's resolve. inflation to go above the target. they have set for from -- set for so long. 2.25 -- 2.75, i think you are a slip away from three. i don't think it will go to three unless we are convinced it'll come back down again. the survey from the small business survey, every regional pmi, they have all these shifting to the moon. they are all saying it will just

go up. it's entirely possible that all they are saying is it will be a big margin spike when the economy reopens, don't worry about it. that is the fed view, but it is not guaranteed to be right. that is why markets are getting twitchy because they say, ok, fed, you might be dead right but we have to consider the possibility that maybe there will be something a bit more deeply embedded that will force you to maybe start raising rates earlier than you think. tom: being in bed with inflation expectation, is part of that bargain that's we embed better economic growth? ian: it is two sides of the same coin. the idea that things get better in the labor market -- things get better, the labor market tightens, people get back to work. this is a good thing. but even before we get the big rehiring, a lot of businesses are complaining they cannot find

the people they need. the danger is we move into this period of elevated inflation because of the margin spike when everything reopens, then we find people's inflation expectations rise and they are able to use those expectations to push employers for a bigger raise because employers are desperate to hold onto people. this did not happen in the last cycle. even when unemployment fell, we did not ever get an explosion of wages. growth picked up, it did not rise as much as the fed expected. that is one of the reasons they regretted doing nine rate hikes before covid. the idea is why worry about at this time when we did not have to worry last time? maybe this time is different. we will not have a credit conch -- credit crunch like 2000 dates. the fed is still buying nearly $1 trillion of assets per year, so maybe we should be more worried about rising expectations into the second half of the year and next year. lisa: what is the tipping point in which we have to worry about

inflation? what rate is bad versus good inflation? ian: that is a good question. it is all about the context. you can have a 2.5 percent core pc inflation rates, which is fine because it is steady or may go back down again. the fed would not worry about that. if it is 2.5% and rising steadily echo so in a years time, it might be three. that would be -- steadily? so in a years time, it might be 3%. so the wrong end of the hockey stick, then you have the same rates, but it is a trajectory and a con stacked -- context that it is where it might go afterwards that it would exercise the fed. that is why the story is so important. if you hit 2.5 and it is rising, and markets expected to keep rising, the fed will have to respond in a very different way than if it studied at 2.5 and everybody thought no big deal. context is everything and it is

about trajectory, speed, and how the market feeds its view back to the fed and how the fed chooses to respond. this will not happen very soon but it is a live issue for markets. jon: this is where 90% of the audience in america turns the volume down, just for you and i, maybe tom too. lisa is going to hate it. relegation, four games to play, do you survive? [laughter] that has to be the most important question right now. ian: it is. i'm sitting in the middle of the town right now. if i did a jump on the street, no one is out there, because it is raining, but i think most people say we would survive. i was hoping if we get relegated, there was be a better chance of it being sold but nobody wants to play in the lower leagues. i guess i have to grip head and say we survived, it's a good thing. really it is 10 years of misery. jon: to be a newcastle fan.

ian shepherdson of pantheon macroeconomics -- macroeconomics. this was the take away from the ism number yesterday, the pmi we had in yesterday on manufacturing. shortages of basic resources, rising commodity prices, absenteeism, all of that leads to shutdowns because there is so much demand. tom: this is a terrible thing. didn't we hope for this six months ago or eight months ago? jon: absolutely. tom: i see the negative real yield, we went from -0.79% to negative point 81%. what i love on nuance tuesday, we are heading to snooze-fest wednesday. lisa: sell it. [laughter] jon: i'm selling it, folks. this job day is historic. . our guess was on fire yesterday. jon: what did he say? tom: he said this is the real deal.

it's going to be one million here, one million there. numbers don't matter. lisa: so nuance tuesday, snooze-fest wednesday, what is thursday? [over talk] [laughter] jon: stay with us. best jon: -- tom: stay with us here. tom: we are transitory. lisa: not now. jon: down three on the day. from new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. in india, the prime minister's fighting pressure to lockdown the country to control the world's worst coronavirus outbreak. india reported more than 357,000 infections across the 20 million

population. the government has left it up to the states to decide on local lockdowns. in mexico city, a raised subway try collapsed. at least 20 people were killed and 70 others injured. the accident is blamed on a broken beam. a subway line that collapsed opened in 2012 but the project suffered design problems during construction. president biden has increased the number of refugees to enter the u.s., after allies blasted his earlier goal. the president retained donald trump's limit of 15,000 refugees. a fortune is at stake in the divorce of bill and melinda gates. a couple announced they are splitting after 27 years of marriage. they made no hint at their financial plans, though they emphasize they will cooperate on continuing their prolific

operations. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on "bloomberg quicktake," powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪ s is bloomberg. ♪

pres. biden: i am not anticorporate, but it is about time they paired -- pay their fair share. it is about making a choice.

this year, you had 50 corporations making $40 billion and did not pay a single penny in taxes. not a single penny. everybody should chip in. everybody should pay something. jon: the president of the united states there on corporate taxes. from new york city this morning, alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro. price action on this nuance tuesday. lisa: [laughter] jon: equity futures down three. we are off by almost .1%. euro-dollar just about holding on to 1.20. the euro had a break of that level a couple hours ago for the first time since late april. in the bond market, yields were lower at an .60 off the back of a surprise from the i-seven. -- i seven. just wrap things out, wti 65 handle, there we go, up by 1.74%. $65 and $.60 -- 65 $.60 --

$65.06. tom: a stunning result out of the texas sixth congressional district south of dallas, south of fort worth. it is simple, the republicans won and the democrats lost. marty schenker joins us, editor in large -- at in charge of all nuance. we are heading for gridlock in 2022. what does that mean for president biden in 2021? marty: it means he will have to try to figure out how he forms a coalition of his base to get his agenda through. we have a story that says this could drag out well into next year. jon: that's to the benefit -- tom: that is to the benefit of republicans. this calendar. for the joke this morning, there

is no nuance. for the democrats, labor day is not the end of the year. marty: that's correct. the timeline is very delicate, and the republicans, however, do have a challenge in getting a common message across on how you oppose some of the things that polling shows the american people support. lisa: on nuance tuesday, i want to ask about the center of gravity in washington, d.c. is the momentum going through pushing through the stimulus effort, the biden plan, or is it on the foreign policy level, or has it gotten to the general wrath of gridlock, which is basically the way washington is? marty: yeah, the interesting thing, lisa, is the volume has been turned quite a bit down from where it was four years ago , so it does not seem as stark. on the ground, the reality is there is little appetite among the republicans to go along with anything joe biden has proposed. this could drag out months and

into, as tom points out, the midterm elections. lisa: so another words, there might not be any stimulus passed before next year. is that what you are saying, that seems like a likely outcome? marty: it is a possibility. i think the one part that could get through, with republican support, is a scaled down infrastructure bill that includes rhodes, bridges, -- roads, bridges, tunnels. jon: -- tom: there's eight ways to go here. liz cheney's fighting for political leadership. it goes back to the color of the democrat middle and republican middle. identify middle republicans out there. how lonely is senator romney of utah? marty: pretty lonely. it will be interesting. tomorrow is a decision by the facebook advisory board on

whether to allow donald trump back on facebook. tom: we are going to stop the show here. marty schenker has been doing this for about 70 years. he is in a movie from the 1930's. marty, come on. why shouldn't a citizen be on facebook? marty: well, the advisory panel will make that call. he was removed because of concerns about inciting the capitol insurrection. tom: that's fair. marty: now, the question is, as a private citizen and former president, does he get to go back on and accurately establish social platform -- and on and accurately established social platform that gave him voice. lisa: on this nuanced tuesday, i will not add decades for your tenure on this earth, but going forward, there's a question about the u.s. relationship with china. not to go totally off in left

field, but the g7 meetings have highlighted this, that biden seems to be getting his way in getting some sort of coalition in the european union or allying some of the goals a little more tightly when it comes to countering china. can you talk about where that is heading and how significant this progress is? marty: i think it is pretty significant the europeans, which spent time forging alliance with china during the trump years, have now pivoted and are working together with aydin to crackdown on china, by limiting investment in european companies and the like. it suggests china will have a much harder time negotiating its way through its various global initiatives on climate, on elton road and other things. it will be more challenging for china for sure. jon: how the united states builds a bridge with america is one thing. i wonder, with europe -- with europe is one thing rather. i wonder how they get a foothold

in asia. that was the worry of the former obama administration. will there be a shift of interest there too? marty: they try to do that at the beginning of the biden administration with going out with india. it is still unclear whether or not they will forge some sort of formal asian alliance that the obama people foraged in late and their administration. it is unclear how the -- in their administration. it is unclear how the u.s. will do that. jon: it is great to catch up. as always, marty schenker. bloomberg editor-at-large. i think for -- i think for ministers will meet today. tom: they will meet in london and the travel thing is front and center. it is almost a path back to normality, as these kind of meetings take on similar some of trying to open up. jon: i agree. multilateralism is back, but we cannot have the same old

results. that is what has to change. tom: it will change. what you think the piano bars will do in davos? we will get back to multilateralism next january? jon: maybe, but there was severe pushback to the approach of yesteryear, because it generated the same results year after year. something has got to change. you can go back to multilateralism. maybe for many people, that is a good thing, but not to offer my opinion on that. the end result has to change. tom: in all of the major cities and all of the people watching worldwide, the multilateralism between the employer and employee and working from home is going to be front and center in the next 60 days. jon: what point are you trying to make? tom: i'm not. i just think there is a lot of societal debates here. we are trying to get there nuance tuesday here. jon: [laughter] lisa: [laughter] tom: the banter yesterday.

banner is on some beach yesterday. jon: it is like some veiled insult. congratulations, fully vaccinated. lisa: woohoo. jon: congratulations. this is bloomberg. ♪

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jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance." equity futures are 4181 on the s&p 500, down four points or 0.4%. the biggest bull on the street on 4600. and also our guest from rbc also upgrading. 4325 from 4100. tom: stop there, that is important. to us why the rbc call is important. jonathan: the adjustment is important, she has been in the market for so long a lot of people are stuck with their year end price targets in the last few days. she is one of my favorite guests. lisa: she is awesome.

she nailed the small and mid-cap move. jonathan: correct, tom. tom: they were both at nuance. i will carry on. nasdaq futures are up 1.3%. we will talk about the negative skew to price action in response to the earnings and the data. but let switch and get to the bond market. twos, tens and 30's, yields on the 30 years, 2.29. yields coming up couple of basis points. speaking of a break, let's switch and get to the euro-dollar. and break of 1.20. you could just about see at a couple of hours ago. tom, interested to see this play out. we are down 0.4% on the euro-dollar. the direction of travel, reopening may be. but the euro is clinging onto the 1.20 handle in today's price

action. tom: very good, jon. turkish-lira bears watching, it is way off the radar. dollar-yen. the weaker turkish-zero is something to keep your eye on. cbs a moments ago, that cvs is doing better than goodwill. a list on the view forward. the huge drugstore combine across america is always important. right now this is a important interview for those who worry about the stock market. andrew slimmon from morgan stanley is a senior portfolio manager among other duties. i want to talk about the new nuance. you are not a raving full, but you are in the market. how can you do that? andrew: let's keep it simple. stocks are the present value of

future expectations. companies are blowing out expectations. so i don't see how you can't take a step back and say, wow, something is going on. companies are saying things are better than what wall street expect and i think you have to respect that. tom: the term in your research note, you have the usual blather, of many have a killer paragraph with data where you say, you and morgan stanley did your homework. you have an 11% miscalculation on earnings. you say they missed it by 11%. what does it mean forward? andrew: that is why i have a hard time with someone telling the dust we started the year with $167 of earnings -- that was what wall street expected. we are now at $185. i guess i am not smart enough to listen to someone who says that

is it is not going up. i don't think you consider that the market has gotten fro thier than it was earlier. it is just repriced. if we continue to move higher, which i think is dangerous to draw the line and say this is it, then i think the market will continue to push higher. the other thing that is important, the dow jones industrial transport, the old index that tells you, it is up 13 weeks in a row. you have to respect that. something is going on here that i think wall street is not optimistic enough about what companies are saying it is healthy that we're not getting carried away at the moment. we are looking at prices and very little attention paid to what is happening with margins. walk us through what is

happening with the margins. andrew: there is a risk of margins peaking are being constrained. i agree with that. could that be overcome by reverend is being stronger-than-expected question mark that remains to be seen. clearly i think there is a rotation into companies that will not be as margin-squeezed, whether that is in some of the commodities areas, energy, financials. i think those are the areas that are most intriguing in the market because there is probably the least margin squeeze out there they upgraded yesterday price action, pricing power being the focus. andrew: i think they will have margin squeeze, number one. number two is, if i am right about the fact that the economy is stronger than what is priced

in the stocks, i don't want defensive stocks, i went cyclical and value stocks. as much as i hear people talking about owning cyclical stocks, the data suggest that they really don't. so i think gearing up, if you own staples, if the market is going to fall, that is not what the first-quarter earnings reports have told us. lisa: is there any logic behind the caution we are seeing with stock investors, and with the analysts on wall street? andrew: it sounds smarter. it all does. but i think you have to be a little humble and think, the market is telling you something that you need to be a bit more optimistic. there is no question in my mind we're going to have a pullback in some point, but i don't think it is in the near future, not with what is coming out of these earnings reports. they are just to this powerful.

if wall street is forced to raise earnings but the stock doesn't respond, don't get pulled out of the stocks. stocks don't go down for long when the future is better than what is presently rise in the stock. lisa: the reason i ask is because there is an incoherence with response to the bond market with what we're seeing in equities. if the balance is toward more gains and a further growth trajectory, than the bond market is not making sense of a time when the u.s. is increasing its deficit, and you have big nationals in the u.s. raising their dividends and offering more income to investors, purely on an income basis let alone the potential returns can you square these realities? andrew: that is maybe whether market is going up. rates will go up because the economy is stronger than we realize, but not at a very rapid rate.

there is the differential to the rest of the world, it is great enough to i am an equity guy and i think it is saying to you that, remain in the cyclicals. i think there is a long way to go. people -- energy stocks weather best-performing stocks during the first quarter. they get no love, because there is this expectation that the economy is peaking. jonathan: that we have seen the best of it. how many times have we heard that? yesterday the institute for supply management, peak growth, again and again on repeat. andrew: when someone says to you we have seen the best of it, say, or your estimates 11% too low at the beginning of the year? that is what you have to ask. challenge them. [laughter] tom: the fact is he you and i are watching the internet gloom. everyone has a martini in their hand. the gloom and doom. it is a long ticket. fact of the matter is, you can't go up, jonathan ferro, to those

kind of levels you are hearing from lori calvasina he and the rest. you can't get there unless you have got the gloom. jonathan: the problem i have with the peak growth concept, andrew, is the peak growth will always come at the beginning of the particular cycle, because the nature of the slow down, it was a mandated recession, reopened, then bang, we jump higher. what is your take on it? andrew: i think the cycle is going to last longer. this concept of peak, i have a hard time with this peak concept, given the magnitude of the earnings revisions and the blowouts so far. i am just not sure we are there yet. culling and or calling the peak i think is immature. lisa: let's talk about potential returns, but jonathan golub called for 22% returns in 2021. can you get to 25%? andrew: i think next year's

earnings are already up to about $208 from the low 190's at the beginning, that was the s&p getting around 190. we are up to $208. . to begin next year, i thin 4300 or 40400i think is doable as a forward peak. the most important thing here is, we all look at pe. we base them off forward estimates. the floor of forward pe's is, what happens if that e is wrong? that is what we're seeing here, the forward pe has been too optimistic. >> it is possible that we will see mid-4000's by year-end. jonathan: great to catch up with you, and your.

a bit of media training for me as well. i think he is telling me what to ask next time someone talks about peak growth in the interview. pushback, jonathan, push back. there is a difference between saying there is limited upside in the equity market, and limited upside in the credit market. in high-yield, some of those markets in fixed income are constrained, which does limit the upside of particular markets within credit. there is a limit to that because of the embedded call in some of those securities. tom: the correlation between bonds and equities are different. what is interesting is that axis of that study, jon, where there is a tradition that the bond market is out front of the equity market. i think tony dwyer is very good at this. as lisa mentioned, with high-yield, clearly there is a signal right now that the good times are ahead. jonathan: speaking of a peak, here is one for you, lisa, hsbc. this year could mark a peak in

bonn supply with the deficit projected to reduce. a meaningful reduction in a long-term auctions. e 1%n -- 1% end 2021 and 2022 is the call. we have a lot of time this tuesday morning. lisa: a lot of nuance this morning. jonathan: futures are negative, just five points on the s&p 500. this is bloomberg. ♪ his is bloomberg. ♪ >> with the first word news, i am ritika ghouta. china is calling on the u.s. to engage in dialogue with north korea. it is not clear whether in the u.s. approach to north korea would persuade kim jong-un's regime to give up its nuclear weapons program. u.s. treasuries more than

quadrupled as borrowing estimates for the quarter through june are expected to need about $1.3 trillion over the second half of the fiscal year to pay for pandemic relief spending. the latest wave of stimulus payments sent of the deficit into a record. texas anticipates an unexpected budget surplus. tax collections are rebounding along with the nation's economy, causing the state to boost forecasts for the next two years. texas expects to end august with a $725 million surplus. in january, the state forecast a deficit of nearly $1 billion. saudi aramco's profits soared after recovering global oil and gas markets. that allowed the world's largest energy firm to keep its quarterly dividends. almost all of that goes to the saudi government. the payout is a vital source of cash for the kingdom. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake,

powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am ritika ghouta. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> what it has been quite concerning is that we haven't really seen as much of a global

response is necessary. india is in clear need of international assistance as well other countries be quite soon if not now. it would help if countries can look within themselves and figure out what they can do to help. jonathan: from new york city this morning, good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa, i am jonathan ferro. equities down our five points. yields are higher by almost two basis points. the fx market, a small break of the euro-dollar at 1.20 earlier 1.2013 now. the video is up 1.75%. that is the cross asset price action. let's get you the earnings pfizer breaking in the last few minutes, a huge upgrade to the full year revenue forecast. 70.5 to $72.5

billion is the range now. previously it was 59.4 billion-61.4 billion. tom, pretty much all of that is coming from a full-year revenue forecast for covid-19 vaccines of about 26 billion, from 15 billion previously. it is a big upgrade on revenue. tom: and the background here is the new york times talking about pfizer vaccinating down to 12-year-olds at some point. we have the finance of pfizer with us, and with us, dr. amesh adalja from johns hopkins. i see a single line item laid out by pfizer. they are not hiding anything here. where vaccines go from 1.6 billion and explode after $4.9 billion. jonathan ferro, why don't you bring in the after amesh adalja of johns hopkins with pfizer getting it done. jonathan: here is the headline you alluded to.

the pfizer vaccine may be approved for children ages 12-50 next week. dr. amesh adalja joins us now. how important is that next step on rolling out the vaccine? dr. adalja: we need to have more of the population vaccinated. more population level immunity. the children are in activities where you see them spreading so you will likely get the benefit in terms of closer herd immunity, more population level humidity and decreased cases. and it will help those schools that have been holding out on not going to full-in-person learning. so i think this is a good step forward. we will probably see even younger age groups approved, but probably not until 2022. jonathan: capacity building up as well, pfizer saying they can

manufacture 3 billion doses in 2022. the problems are not about capacity or supply, in fact this country is talking about exporting some of their stockpile of vaccines. in your opinion, is the biggest issue we have to confront right now still hesitancy? dr. adalja: that is the biggest issue by far. we have hit a wall. we are seeing vaccines dip to one million or lower. people who got vaccinated, the early adopters, they were enthusiastic. now we are hitting vaccine hesitancy, people on the fence, and people opposed to the vaccine. we are going at a much slower pace. johnson & johnson definitely not down the use of the vaccine, even after the pause was lifted. i don't think we are going to see major jumps for some time. it'll take some time to accrue a large portion of the population vaccinated. this 12-59 will boost the numbers significantly. lisa: people who got vaccinated have had the express of the second shot.

the side effects have gotten to be pretty well known. are the side effects, theoretically, for a 12-year-old child, going to be worse given the fact that the stronger the immune system,? dr. adalja:? dr. adalja: it seems the stronger the reactions it is hard to make a 1:1 comparison. what we know from the clinical trial data, the side effects are not considered to be very severe. there are people who get the vaccine who have no side effects. it is hard to know exactly where a 12-15-year-old will fall. but that is something that the cbc panel will look at. children are not likely to be the major spreaders, so that will be the calculation that the cdc and fda do. that is important because vaccines have a benefit and let you have to look at each specific age group. lisa: when you talk about the risk-benefit every day, there is a transitioning going on. when do health officials say enough high-risk individuals

have been vaccinated, that the covid pandemic can be downgraded to a bad flu and we can go about our lives? dr. adalja: what would have to happen is we have to get closer to 40% of the u.s. population vaccinated. that is where we saw precipitant declines in israel, which is a much more highly vaccinated country. they still have not reached herd immunity either, by their test positivity rate is less than 1%. if we can get more people vaccinated and use the cases plummet, maybe to less than 10,000, you will see a be thinking of how we come up with a better miscalculation, how we live with this virus. it is not going to go to 0. that is a foregone conclusion. but we will get to a point where this has lost the ability to cause serious disease. tom: the cynics and the non-science crew will say that if pfizer is minting all this money, they should come to the rescue, to the aid of india. in their wonderful press release, which i did not do a

word search on, they don't address the catastrophe that we see in these other , is the pfizer vaccine too fancy for the realities of india1 i don't know that it is too fancy but it will probably the one of two solutions. india exports most of their vaccines to other countries. they are the maker of the astrazeneca vaccine, they have their own home grown vaccine so this is a question of logistics. they can handle the pfizer vaccine in terms of manufacturing. the delivery of the pfizer vaccine, the cold storage, that makes it difficult. if they are able to use a single-dose vaccine, let the johnson & johnson vaccine in india, that would be ideal. they have to have all hands on that, using any type of safe and effective vaccine that is available to stop what is an out of control pandemic, and to get them online. jonathan: thank you for catching

up this morning some important steps forward, hopefully. dr. image the dodge a of the johns hopkins center for health -- dr. amesh adalja from the johns hopkins center for health security. thank you. previously they had seen 59 .4 billion-61.4 billion in pfizer. that upgrade to the full year revenue guidance largely coming from vaccine revenue. it seems to be 26 billion. previously it was 15 billion. it is a big upgrade to the outlook for pfizer. tom: these are very difficult numbers versus the big-tech companies. the compare and contrast isn't there. yield is on the 4%. dividend growth. it is not like they are beating the drum like apple, microsoft. lisa: look for profit as well. jonathan: previously 310-320. lisa: these are blowout numbers for a pharmaceutical company. the shares are up 1.3%, they are

shrugging. what more can you do for us? jonathan: very unique, the situation with the covid-19 vaccines at how much money they can make, or rather, not make. coming up, jim paulsen, a chief investment strategist. looking forward to that chart around the corner. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> it's pretty simple to recognize we are in the midst of a boom here in the u.s. >> there is so much of does a vision of this moment of fully reopening the economy, -- so much anticipation of this moment of fully reopening the economy, so i think we will see vulnerability. >> the question is how long is transitory. is it a couple of months, a year or 18 months? it is certainly not long term. >> until the tax changes happen, you ignore them, but the reality is the market is not ignoring it. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: we've got an earnings boom. from new york city for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. 10 minutes ago it was pfizer upgrading its outlook. in the last couple of minutes, under armour joining the party. tom: it is really