♪ >> it is pretty simple to recognize that we are in the midst of a boom in the u.s. >> we are potentially going to see faster prices, both in consumer prices and inflation. >> the question is how long is transitory. is it a couple of months, a year or 18 months? it is certainly not long-term. >> there's no question in my mind we will have a pull back at some point, but i don't forget is in the near future. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone.

on radio, on television worldwide, and across this nation, "bloomberg surveillance ." a flood of revenues moments ago moving stocks down. linkages to yield lower. we come back from that. but i've got to focus on the elephant in the room. friday, i'm looking at the bloomberg survey, median estimate, 995,000. average estimate is 1.034 million. that is a boom economy. jonathan: the top end north of 2 million over at jefferies. demand is so big right now. what is the problem we've got? actually hiring people, staff shortages. we saw that in the ism, the pmi yesterday. the struggle is meeting that demand. that's the big issue. tom: i saw a bloomberg conference call on twitter where they are talking about they can't find labor, and they're

going to have to pay more. form where you set, is the inflation worry entrenched now? jonathan: not yet. i'll tell you why. there is consumer price tolerance out there. they are able to process and i just higher prices. companies have been able to take higher costs, pass them on and maintain margins. we would have a different problem with that wasn't the case, but so far, so good. i think there's an appreciation that the supply side of the economy will adapt and adjust in the months to come. this is demand shock right now. then we've got to adapt over the next several months. tom: this is so important, the supply-demand. it goes back to the late, great jack welch of ge talking about what you do when prices go up. lisa: here's the mystery, and it's very good you pointed out the supply and demand dynamics. what happens if the demand boom wanes and you have a supply glut? that goes to the disinflationary environment. as demand stay at this level in

a new economy that potentially is turbocharged by additional rounds of stimulus? tom: we are going to do a data check. i thought it would be a throwaway. unfortunately it is not a throwaway. a single headline stirring it up. there's great debate about this. we are going to report what we see with the headline, and the fact is the news moves. china's military aircraft enters taiwan. jonathan: many people have made that point. it is not our job to say whether something should or should not happen. your equity market a little bit lower in the last 20 minutes. equity futures off by about 17 points to 1.6941 present -- 1.694 1%. right now on tends, $1.6030. tom: a jumble in foreign exchange. the real yield, -0.78% over the

last few hours. look for that property from jon ferro friday afternoon. right now we've got the perfect guest to get us started in this hour. seema shah joins us from principal global investors. what i love is your study of the linkage between equity and debt, the idea of what the stock market is going to do versus what fixed income is going to do. described that linkage right now. seema: you have been talking about that earlier today. the equity market is so strong at the moment. cause for concern that we are not going to get the continued economic surprises which may keep pushing the market up as much as we have seen recently, but it is looking really strong out there. you've got bond yields around the one dollar 50 since level. it just doesn't seem to be lining up. to me, the main fact which is holding bond yields down is still the expectation that the fed is going to stay on hold. but at some point, i think we are all in agreement that bond yields are on their way up this year. it is just the speed at which

they are going to move. that is going to be a major impact to markets. jonathan: one thing people are struggling within the bond market is this data doesn't get it done. if this is not translate into higher yields, what data will? seema: to me it is inflation data. we need to keep watching that. we are all expecting inflation to move up over the next couple of months, so there's no surprise there. it is really when you start getting into autumn and winter, and if you are still seeing inflation moving up at that pace , that is when the bond market is really going to freak out, and that is when the equity market becomes increasingly invulnerable. the market is very divided on what the path for inflation is, but even the ones -- we do think it is transitory, but we also have to admit that inflation will turn out to be sticky. lisa: there's a big debate among stock investors about when

higher yields is good and when higher yield is bad. up to a point, it indicates people or upgrading expectations for the economy. at i point that is too high, it reassesses perhaps valuations baked into markets. what is that tipping point? anchor: rather than a tipping point -- seema: rather than a tipping point, just looking at financial conditions, a financial -- at financial conditions, it is really when you start to see a turbulent and unsettling move in bond yields. the level is probably above what people are thinking, at about the 2.25 level. but if you get yields at above 2%, that is going to freak out markets. it's all the drivers of the speed which is really the key point here. tom: the speed is going to go to the first and second derivative. i was talking to kailey leinz

about this. just the rate of change out there. do you expect stability, or do we need to be really aware of potential convexity not only in bonds, but the equivalent in equities? seema: i think there are risks out there. that is obviously a risk. but i think a lot of it can be done now, at least in the next few months, to the fed's communication. where are they turning up that they feel rates, where they feel inflation? they have the ability to keep the market calm come but they start to unwind, that speed affects derivative. it becomes a very key risk. our view at the moment is that markets are on a steady upward path. there may be winter pullbacks, but it is really an upward movement from here. jonathan: do you have a regional bias right now outside of the united states? where is it? seema: that's an interesting one. we have really favored the u.s. over the last few months. we have pulled back some of our

preferences for emerging markets because of all of the reasons with covid, inflation concerns around china. europe is became an -- is becoming more attractive, but that would be a difficult cyclical trade. we still think europe is very much under pressure from longtime growth prospects until they can get their fiscal policy really moving the same as the u.s., which doesn't seem likely. europe will continue to be the defaulter. overall, we still prefer the u.s. lisa: i want to wrap up dovetailing the conversation we had earlier this morning with andrew slimmon into this dialogue. a question of this 11% miss when it comes to wall street estimates for earnings so far in the s&p 500. you were getting a little bit more cautious on some of the

long-term stocks. what do you say to people who say earnings have been blowing out of the water? does that make you reassess. ? why do you dismiss it? seema: there have been a continued upward move in earnings expectations. you have to be very careful at this point. this is active management at this point because the you need to start thinking about which sectors outperform and which ones are going to do badly. we still like mega cap tech, but we just don't think you can sustain the kind of returns we saw last year. if you're looking at cash flow, those other companies which are really going to provide stability not just over the next few months, but a longer term. there is still a secular trade within your portfolio, as old is that allocation that is cyclical. jonathan: got to leave it there. seema shah, principal global investors chief strategist. i love the framing of that. it is a miss.

the people that have missed the calls have missed. that was in jerusalemmon a little -- that was andrew slimmon a lot of -- a little earlier this morning. lisa: the idea is this cost of reassessing human assumption of bearishness. jonathan: are you talking about someone specifically? lisa: no, i am throwing shade at myself. jonathan: just wondering if you would actually say it or not. [laughter] with underappreciated how much we would back -- we would bounce back and how quickly we have done so. tom: ben lately -- ben laidler frames it nicely. can we have three consecutive years of double digit equity return? the answer is we are not supposed to come but he stuck his professional out and said this is unusual. we are going to see three years of double digit returns. jonathan: it is unique and unusual. we mentioned this a couple times in the last few weeks, this time last year in the june forecast

from the federal reserve, they were projecting unemployment to drop 5.5% at the end of 2022. that was june 2020, looking up to the end of 2022 a 5.5%. we could see something close to that this friday, april 21. lisa: it speaks to the lack of billability -- the visibility across wall street that are in depending a lot of the consensus bets out there. what happens if we are wrong this time around, i've we have been so wrong. jonathan: are you ok? lisa: honestly, i wasn't expecting things to move that fast. jonathan: everybody has been wrong on this one. it is an absence of humility that some are pushing back against right now, pointing the finger at the federal reserve the moment for the lack of militant about how quickly we might bounce back.

the estimate north of one million for the april payrolls report. median estimate, $9.95 million. where -0.2%. -- we are -0.2%. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. on radio, on tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. wall street's march back to its skyscrapers is picking up the pace. goldman sachs planning to tell its u.s. employees they should be prepared by the middle of next month to work from offices again. that follows jp morgan's mandate last full week for rotations starting in july. pfizer raised its forecast for the fiscal year and said vaccine revenue will be much higher than expected. they expect revenue to hit $26 billion, up from a previous estimate of $15 billion.

cvs posted first quarter earnings that also beat estimates. the drugstore chain also raised its earnings forecast for the full year. revenue for its health insurance business goes up almost 7%. in mexico city, a raised subway track collapsed, plunging train cars below. about seven work -- about 20 were killed and 70 others injured. the subway that collapsed opened in 2012. . fortune valued at $146 billion is at stake in the divorce of bill and melinda gates. the couple announced they are splitting up after 27 years of marriage. they made no hint of their financial plans, that they emphasize they will cooperate and continue their philanthropic operations. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.

i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> what we are trying to do is to uphold the international rules-based order that our

countries have invested so much in. i think the challenge for us is to demonstrate in very concrete ways that we can deliver for our citizens. jonathan: that was anthony blinken, the u.s. secretary of state. good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. one hour and about 12 minutes away from the cash open in new york city this morning. is the price action in the equity market. the s&p 500 down 22, -0.5%. yields unchanged, 1.5977%. a break of 1.6 to percent in yesterday's session. euro dollar down about 1%. . tom: we are fortunate that enda curran joins us, our chief east asia correspondent. our backdrop here is my book of the summer, the wonderful "2

034." it is the stresses of china and taiwan in the south china sea out a good 13 years. china aircraft in taiwanese airspace, it did move the markets. when we get that headline, doesn't move the needle of emotion in your hong kong? enda: good morning. it is another example of why china is such a flat point. these incursions do seem to be happening more frequently recently. the biden adminstration has been taking actions on taiwan, stepping up liaison, sending former u.s. officials into taiwan a few weeks ago. china has been pushing back hard, making clear it continues to push a line that considers taiwan to be part of its internal affairs, and pushes back against meddling.

there's a shortage of semiconductors, so it is a massively important situation now to the u.s., to the economy, and china trying to advance its own semiconductor technology at the same time. so taiwan is absolutely the global flashpoint. there is no sign of a circuit breaker or that changing anytime soon. >> tom: tryon and chains like the economics between beijing, -- try and translate the economics between beijing, taiwan, and back to washington. enda: there's a little bit of a push back now. the u.s. had been leaving this hawkish trade policy against china for numb years, but now perhaps europe is coming on board with that little bit as well. our own colleague reporting for example that child's breeze in government are growing colder in

relation to china. there's probably more on that deal that they agreed only in january. one interesting example is what is happening in australia. the group there has announced the review of a china lease on a port in darwin. that is interesting because that was signed off only five years ago. but here we are now, where australia is wondering whether or not that was the right thing to do. there's also tensions continuing to flare in the philippines over the south china sea. so china is certainly battling tensions on many fronts with key trading partners and with key economies around the world because this whole trade and technology thing moved me on. lisa: that's exec leroy want to go, the idea that g-7 foreign

ministers are meeting in london this week. the main discussion is some collaboration with how to approach china. what is china's response to the closer alliance between the u.s. and europe, generally with respect to establishing a new dynamic globally with china? enda: it will be very interesting to see how that plays out. there's no doubt that there are some who are pushing for this kind of alliance, the like-minded democracies against china on an economic and human rights front, but there are signs of that isn't fully cohesive either. new zealand, for example, has signaled caution when it comes to the use of backing the alliance against china. it would mean keeping an eye on how that develops. this investment agreement between china and the e.u. signed only in january is now no

longer a done deal. you look at the tensions happening with australia and others that were once fairly benign. there is there now something of a cooling that would pull together some kind of an alliance on this. but as i say, it is far from a done deal. germany continues to talk about the demented importance of its relationship with china. there is certainly some criticism and pushback, but i don't think there's any kind of alliance that some would argue for. lisa: we are seven minutes away from finding out the trade deficit in the united states for the month of march. the expectation is there will be a new record with respect to the trade deficit. a lot of the money going to china, which is been shipping a lot of goods to the united states. how much has the rhetoric that matched with the action when it comes to the economic balance, the economic relationship between the u.s. and china? enda: chinese trade to the u.s. has gone gangbusters.

we speak to manufacturers, and they all tell us their biggest issue is meeting demand from u.s. clients. it is almost as though the trade war never happened. there is no doubt that the big revival in the chinese industrial and production side of things was driven by a big rebound in the u.s., and it has been announced that some of the biden stimulus will eventually still over -- eventually spill over to chinese companies. there is something of a dual track, as you mentioned. we do have these geopolitical tensions, human rights tensions, security tensions, but i do say the merchandise goes between the two world's biggest economies. china has been going gangbusters, and it has helped lift its economy and get it back under a v-shaped recovery it has enjoyed since the pandemic a year ago. jonathan: thanks for staying late. bloomberg's enda curran there.

about 65 minutes away from the opening bell in new york city, equities are down 24 points on the s&p 500. we are down about zero point 6%. your 10 year yield, 1.5995%. euro-dollar up a little more than 1%. euro derivative -- euro negative, dollar stronger. tom: in the yield space, the real yield back to 0.84%. i will get it. 3, 2, 1. lisa: we are restarting the show now? [laughter] tom: my speaking ability is transitory, sorry. jonathan: i feel like we should restart the show everyday at 6:01, 6:02, 603.

coming up, ethan harris, bank of america economist. the trade deficit in the united states. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, on radio and tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

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>> according to the national association of homebuilders, would cost savannah more than $24,000 to the price of the average new house. lumber prices are expected to stay elevated for monster, -- for months to come.

jonathan: two hours and 30 minutes ago this market was on the edge of a snooze fast. as the session has grown order of the session has got more interesting. equity futures down 26 on the s&p 500. your underperformance on the russell, down 1%. the nasdaq off .5 -- .9%. here is the bond market right now. two, tends, and 30's look a little something like this. your yield hopefully will come up on the screen. on a 30 year, 2.2735. getting more defensive. euro-dollar breaking 1.20 early this morning. right now 1.2021.

dollars stronger again. interesting to have a quick sneak peek at the fx se function on the bloomberg. euro-dollar q4 2021 at 1.2020 one. how much more work needs to be done to close the gap between the economies in the united states and europe and how you push it through the fx market? at the moment people not too balled up on the forecast into year end. tom: it ebbs and flows based on the forecast out of europe. how does europe respond to a 1.22 euro if and when we get there? ethan harris with us, bank of america securities, their global economist. thank you for joining us. i want to go to michelle meyer's spectacular charts on the makeup of our pain, our jobs pain on this pandemic. she looks at the area underneath

the former labor participation rate. it is an ugly into graham -- the space we have to get back to you to get back to normal. when do we do that? ethan: i do not think we recover that cap. later this year we will recover a lot of it. what is causing the gap is the covid crisis is making people reluctant to work. people need to take care of their kids. unemployment benefits are generous. there are high retirements going on as people rethink their life in this crisis. a lot of that will come back in the fall or into next year. there'll be a chunk of workers that never come back. tom: she has a mismatch. fine. do we get back to a fully employed america? is that a feasible reach for

anything but politicians are supposed to say that? ethan: we will get back to full employment but full employment may not be as low as it was before because you have the structural problems of job mismatch. you see it another cycles where you have a big shock to the economy. some sectors grow, others don't. workers get displaced along the way. a higher unemployment rate on a chronic basis. we will get back to low unemployment, probably below 4%. there will be structural unemployment that hangs over into the recovery. jonathan: i want to touch on this data. the trade balance coming in at $74.4 billion, negative, in line with the survey. michael mckee pointing out that is the widest monthly gap in the history of data going all the way back to 1992. that is as wide as it has been

for a long time. -74.4 billion. tom: i am glad you bring it up. dr. harris, comment on that. ethan: another record we did not want to make. it is obviously the case the u.s. is coming out of this recession very fast compared to our trading partners. the growth is in goods demand, which is traded, services tend to be domestically delivered. you have had a massive sucking in of imports. you talk about this. china in particular is a big beneficiary. our exports are not growing quite as gangbusters. you will have a record trade deficit and it will get bigger going forward. it is because the u.s. is so exceptional in the stimulus it is doing. jonathan: i think that is the

story. it is a reflection of the massive demand shock we are experiencing in this country. other countries are not going through. we are getting all of their exports and they are getting none of hours because demand is not there. europe is a case study to look at. ethan: if you compare or contrast u.s. and europe, the amount of fiscal stimulus and the u.s. is three times bigger than what they are doing in europe. europe has a pretty small next generation stimulus coming. the u.s. has poured massive money and continues to do it. a lot of the stuff on the table will pass. when you outgrow your trading partners, your own economy look very good. you will pull them along with you. that is what the u.s. is doing. lisa: you will pull them along with you or they will weigh you down if you try to get into a

new economic cycle. there has been a huge question about where we are in this economic cycle. there is an idea of burn hotter and shorter. there is an idea we never left the old cycle. where do you fall in this issue? jonathan: will recover -- ethan: we will recover extremely fast. we think by early next year we will be back where we started from. in a sense it was like this was a bad nightmare two year period and now we are out of it. there is a danger in this and that right now the high growth is fantastic, let's get back to normal as fast as possible. at some point we need to slow down. we will go through the stop signs next year. at some point the fed needs to change gears, they need to say we are going to hike and we are going to hike more than we are telling you. we need to slow things down.

it is a remarkably fast recovery. we are jumping from deep recession to full recovery in record time. lisa: do you ascribe to the robert kaplan idea that markets themselves, given how exuberant they have gotten, could pose a material risk to the economy in a year or two years if the fed does have to hike more than people are pricing in, and there is a quick end to the recovery? ethan: i think there is a risk of that. it is a very good point. the markets are being fed an incredible mix of positive news. they are not hike -- you have the fed not hiking anytime soon. you have great growth numbers. very good news on vaccines and the covid crisis. you have a red-hot risk asset market, whether it is home prices or equity valuations.

that is an environment where you tend to overshoot. we could be in an environment where the fed has to take away the punch ball. the rest of the economy in 2023 and 24 is pretty high. tom: what do you see for business investment? are they going to affect capex or is it one big share buyback? ethan: no, i think capex will be strong. if you look at our surveys of fund managers they are telling companies invest in capex. that is a sign of optimism about the outlook. if you look at models of capital spending, the main driver of capex's growth and growth expectations. if a company thinks the market will grow they do capex. it is not that important, the funding aspect. the funding is something you

have to take care of to create the capex, but the real story is about a riproaring recovery encouraging a lot of investment. we will have a recovery that starts concentrated on the consumer as they come out of their covid cave and get out there and engage, and then over time capex will start outgrowing consumption. that is what we expect next year. jonathan: the guide for friday, what is the focus for you ahead of the headline number? ethan: there's is not any big focus. it is just that this is a ripping labor market. to have another 900,000 plus number, i think the story of the job market and the story for the fed is the consistency of the stretch. are we going to keep getting these big numbers? at some point the fed has to say now we need to think about tapering our bond purchases. it is not so much about one

report, it is about the cumulative evidence this is not a temporary caffeine high. this is a strong recovery going on here at -- going on. jonathan: ethan harris, bank of america. we grapple with the demand shock. that is what it is. a demand shock that bleeds into potentially an inflation issue, and the supply response is something we are struggling with is out. tom: your absolutely dead on. what is so important is is it expressed through the price mechanism or expressed through the real economy? we do not have an answer to that debate but that comes down to do you worry about gdp dynamics or do you worry about price dynamics, or you worry about both? jonathan: i think we have to deal with the tonic distortions

that will take a while to make our way through. lisa: it makes it difficult to understand and predict price action. i'm thinking about the trade deficit headlines. a record trade deficit for march. the dollar stronger even versus the yuan even though the yuan is deepening its deficit with china. companies beating expectations, the people are tepid on their shares. trying to square what are the fundamentals net world awash with liquidity. jonathan: this was pre-much expected to happen. if you have a demand shock in one part of the world, then we have trade deficits like we just saw. what ethan harris said is this will get wider. that is the call i think is more interesting. not what happened now. it is what happens in the futures. is this something that stays this wide, structurally, relationship between china and the united states that persists beyond this year? tom: it sets us up for a nuanced

june. jonathan: a nuanced tuesday into a nuanced june. coming up on the open, megan greene. lisa abramowicz, tom keene, jonathan ferro, on radio, on tv. this is "bloomberg surveillance." ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. a landmark trial involving the opioid crisis is underway in west virginia. the biggest drugmakers accused in the u.s. accused of swamping -- laura's -- lawyers say they should not be held liable. have proposed a $26 billion settlement of all opioid suits. the u.s. treasury more than quadrupled its borrowing estimates through june and expects to need about 1.3 trillion dollars over the second half of the year to pay for new pandemic relief spending.

the latest wave of stimulus payments set the budget deficit to a record in the first half of the year that began last october. under armour reported first-quarter results that beat estimates. the athletic apparel company also more than double its profit for the entire year. under armour is being boosted by stimulus checks. return of team sports and high demand for athletic year. investors are watching uber and lyft to see if a bounce back and demand can keep a six-month rally going. lyft has risen more than 150%. uber is up about 64%. now the question whether the ride-hailing service can show a profit. last month missed forecast for profit by the third quarter. uber aims to be in the black by the end of the year. saudi aramco's profit sort of the first quarter after recovering global oil and gas markets.

>> i have a hard time with this heat concept -- with this peak

concept given the magnitude of the earnings revision so far. i'm not sure we are there yet. i think calling it the peak is premature. tom: good morning. andrew slimmon there with morgan stanley. right now on the thought of the moment which is goldman sachs saying we are coming back in june, work from home back to work from office. barry ritholtz joins with bloomberg podcast and really smart stuff, including an interview with jonathan miller. let me start with that. john miller is wired in new york and about 14 other cities. what did you learn? barry: the death of the cities has been greatly exaggerated. there has been a reshuffling of the seats, but people are not fleeing new york and san francisco for florida and arizona as the headline suggest.

they are fleeing new york for brooklyn and queens. they are fleeing san francisco for the surrounding environment. you definitely have, when you put together the net numbers each month, it is net inflows versus outflows. while we have had a lot of outflows from march of 2020 for at least the next six months, inflows -- it was exceedingly different. now last month was one of the biggest months in manhattan real estate. tom: what is price doing? whenever you have a national disaster price adjusts. give us the barry ritholtz stake on price dynamics for personal real estate. barry: you have two factors interacting at the same time. on the one hand, department stores and offices, we have been wildly over building department stores for two decades compared to the u.k. or germany or japan. look other -- look at any other

western economy. much more square footage per capita here than there. some of it is being replaced with things like we work. some is being replaced with logistical hubs and warehouses. the estimate is we probably have come to the realization we have about 20% excess office space, much of which is going to be converted to residential over the next five or so years. the thinking is we are looking at a pretty substantial reset, both in supply of housing, if not low income housing. certainly more affordable housing on both the rental market in the co-op and condo market because there has not been land to build more, and now suddenly we have all of these buildings. convert them to residential and there's another 500 people in a building. play that out block after block

in big cities and suddenly there is a lot more residential real estate. we reopened our office officially yesterday and we had a lot of people in. it is shocking how midtown is still a ghost town, but the surrounding residential areas are popping. lisa: that is where i wanted to go. this idea that you did reopen your office and you were surprised how many people showed up. you have goldman sachs, j.p. morgan setting a schedule for when they expect people back in the office. is there a feeling among some of the people you work with that rumors of the death of the office have been greatly exaggerated, given the idea people want to be around other people? barry: for sure. there are couple of things that stood out. the four partners said we would come in, and everybody else it was optional. we were surprised we had 20 people show up, including

jonathan novy from chicago, shocked everybody. he has been vaccinated for months so he was comfortable doing that. it is still masks in public places. everybody in the firm is fully vaccinated. what you learn is a lot of the work we all do day to day, you can walk in your spare big room at home or your office, shut the door, and do the work. that is just your particular work. it is not the work of operating a firm. you have to be able to maintain a corporate culture and have everybody understand the firm's goals and the way we operate. we met yesterday for the first time two people we have hired over the past year that we never met. that is a crazy thing. it is not easy to hire remotely. not that it is easy to hire in person. studies show humans are terrible

with that. it is fascinating that i just met somebody who has been working for me for six months. it is not that everything is going to change. the emphasis on what can only be done together as what we will spend more time doing in the office, and the 9-to-5, monday through friday routine. that is brontosaurus burgers. that is old stuff. it'll be fewer hours, fewer days, more people coming and going, but not everybody here every morning. tom: thank you so much. barry ritholtz with an important podcast with jonathan miller. look for that on real estate within the pandemic as cities in the tri-state area try to open up. florida with comments yesterday as well. an interesting session. you never know, from the beginning of surveillance to the end of surveillance, will lisa and i be on speaking terms by the end?

today the markets got interesting. lisa: interesting factor is we have analyst after investor after analyst, on the show and say how bullish they are, how good the fundamental backdrop is. yet the bias is still to the downside. i'm struggling with that given the fact we saw perhaps that headline on china and taiwan. perhaps headlines for ferrari. perhaps rumors started on twitter. tom: we are working within very narrow ranges. we do not have a collective memory of a 10% pullback, 18% pullback. every once in a while we enjoyed a 35% pullback. we are not there. lisa: this story dovetails into the idea of going back to the office. this idea that people are exhausted after working from home and having no separation between work and home and this idea of what are you doing with your life, what is your culture?

all of these ideas. i think it does bleed into the blah nature of markets these days. tom: the answer is get vaccinated. we are fully vaccinated. francine lacqua out on social getting one level of vaccination. you and i are showing up in warmed over lululemon. francine lacqua shows up dressed for the oscars. lisa: you have any lululemon? have you put on yoga pants. i would buy you drinks. i would buy everyone drinks. tom: i would need a drink if i tried. lisa: look at those markets. tom: how about those markets? -22. dow down 142. the 10 year yield through 1.59.

1.58 53 confounds the higher yield crew. on the pandemic, the governor of new jersey tonight. this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading.

this is "bloomberg -- the open" with jonathan ferro. ♪ jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. equity futures down about 5%. we begin with the big issue. market -- monster earnings receiving muted rewards. >> the earnings are fantastic. >> exceptional earnings season. >> perhaps the strongest season on record. >> forecast coming into the season have been revised up. >> there is muted reaction because we have gone so far so fast. >> a lot of the response has been somewhat muted. >> not getting the positive shareprice reactions. >> wall street is not