♪ >> right now the markets are being fed an incredible mix of positive news. >> we are going to see faster prices within consumer prices and wages. >> we do think it is transitory, but we also have to accept that there's a very fair chance that inflation will turn out to be sticky. >> there's no question in my mind we will have a pullback at some point, but i don't think it is in the near future. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: it is the yellen tantrum. i did that just to wind up tom. [laughter] for our audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. we snap back from the losses of yesterday on the s&p, up about

0.3%, the nasdaq up 0.6%. this from the nobel laureate paul krugman on twitter. "if it should happen terrain -- happen to rain, we have umbrellas, said the treasury secretary. this is a hurricane." [laughter] tom: it's not about paul krugman , not about janet yellen. it's about the voters, and there's no question the voters see inflation in gasoline and many of the products, including at the grocery store. jonathan: and if you've got a labor shortage, there's a pretty simple solution to addressing that. tom: you nailed it with your observation on montana. i missed that news item. what the governor of montana is doing, is that our future? jonathan: the governor of montana unveiling what he thinks is an incentive to get back at work and what he thinks is a disincentive to stay out of the labor force, addressing federal

unemployment benefits. lisa: frankly, it shows the fault lines that have emerged between republicans and democrats, conservatives and liberals, when it comes to this stimulus that we could get or not get. how much can you do for people who have been left behind by the economy, particularly after the pandemic? jonathan: in the equity market on the s&p 500, we advance 14, 4172, up 0.3%. the market got hammered yesterday. crude, wti $66.40, approaching $70 on brent, up 1%. lisa: since both of you were talking over each other, i do want to weigh in on that jonathan: that's the show -- weigh in on that. jonathan: that's the show, isn't

it? [laughter] lisa: the idea here that perhaps the riskier assets are the ones that have been more inflated by fed policies then even the markets that they have more control over, which is the rates market. anyway, we will dive into that. 8:15 am, we get the 80 plea -- we get the adp employment change. moving towards friday, the key question with this job report is how high does the bar have to be for people to believe the fed could change their policy? we've been hearing it could be something around the mark of 2 million or more jobs. 8:30, we get treasury refunding announcement for the quarter. the expectation is for it to stay the same at about $26 billion. the idea here, are we reaching peak net issuance of treasuries? demand may be staying the same, maybe going down. 10:00 a.m., we get the ism

services data. this is going to be a service sector rebound. how much are we getting momentum at this point, or is it too early to just tell? jonathan: i always think the services pmi's are interesting. it does reveal what is happening in this economy right now. higher prices, labor shortage, big demand, trying to meet that demand. lisa: did tom really just do that? i said something, and he was like, does anyone care, jon? jonathan: he's just as me -- he's just asking me what i thing about the situation. tom: in the old days, they were ignored. jonathan: you have put things in the day ahead sometimes that are questionable. [laughter] like when lisa puts the beige book in their. lisa: i think that is very important. tom: good morning on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television. corn up 30% since april 1. that's got an international character to it. jonathan: copper and crude as well have absolutely ripped this year. let's bring in luke kawa, ubs

asset management strategist and former bloomberg reported. how do you want to start this? you get to choose, sir. luke: we can start with markets if that's not too much of a problem. [laughter] jonathan: good to see you. you don't want to talk about the yankees cap i can see just around the corner of the shop. let's get to the investing lasting from -- investing lessons from china's recovery. that's where your investments have been taken over the last couple of months. why? luke: i think it is pretty useful one year out from china starting to reopen. what is this complete and a mic recovery in terms of output? what lessons can we draw from that in terms of how asset markets are going to behave as more and more economies reach that state of more complete recovery? the first lesson is i think to stay away from china comedy stay away from regions from a risk

perspective that are just a lot more advanced in the cyclical recovery, to migrate more towards where there's surprises, europe, japan, em fx. the second is to not fade the strength in the good sector -- the goods sector. we continue to see robust ratings. if the u.s. is slowing down, that is still a pretty incredible print in that context. so not to fade that, to know that when we get services reopening, that is not the baton being passed from one runner to the next. that is a jet engine getting another one right there. tom: i love your china note, the basic idea of asia-pacific out front. dupont mentioned that i believe in their earnings report. how do you play a pacific rim lead and resurgence? do you do it through multinationals in europe and north america, or do you go direct to asia? luke: i think our view is not

necessarily that these places will lead in terms of the vigor of the recovery, but more that they are just on the leading edge of it. so you do want to go kind of more westward to your developed markets that haven't had the same degree of recovery yet. that is more the view there, tom . lisa: how much is china a story that can be used as a precedent, and how much is it idiosyncratic , the idea that they are starting to pare back some of their easy money policies to try to reduce some of the leverage? the fact that they are in a very different economic cycle when it comes to the evolution towards a more mature economy? luke: definitely some nuances need to be taken there in discussing china, but the broad contours of what you just discussed, the idea that policy support, as you get to that point of complete out to -- complete output recovery, is going to become more two-sided. that is something that is natural across developed markets

as you get more of a move, a handoff from public to private, and this -- and just the general ebbing of the fiscal impulse. that is the place where you see it in china in terms of the dialing down of the credit impulse, and you are seeing it in the u.s. in terms of future policy discussions and the infrastructure package. it is going to come with higher taxes, so the u.s. policy risk right now, as it is in a more advanced state of recovery than other em's, is also getting more two-sided. so that broad lesson is very applicable for how you approach other markets. jonathan: the dollar call, where is your team now? luke: i think renewed conviction in the dollar call, especially based on the events of the past month. you've had european vaccinations really accelerate. you have the u.s. pmi and manufacturing peak, and peak relative to the rest of the world. when you are thinking about how

to trade potential peak u.s. activity in the goods sectors, there's a lot of different directions you can go. it can make you outright bearish or outright bullish. treasuries, we think the better way to play that focus on ex-us equities where pmi's are going up and focus on dollar weakness. so a renewed call for dollar weakness, especially against european effects -- european fx. tom: ok, but when does europe start screaming over strong euro? last time it happened sooner than pundits like you thought. luke: i think fx always matters. it definitely matters to the policymaking discussion. fx matters a lot less when global demand is growing as strongly as it is. when we are fighting in fx terms over a pie that is pretty small and expanding at a slow pace, fx matters a lot to policy makers. when you are growing at such a strong clip, you can

tolerate a higher foreign exchange rate. tom: he nailed that. [laughter] jonathan: just a quick word on the yankees. luke: there's a lot of develop its -- developments in april. it's like the red sox leading in the al east. there's some picture of the month -- some pitcher of the month going forward. tom: this is amazing. [indiscernible] jonathan: just finish it with a nice right hook therefrom luke kawa. luke, good to catch up. lisa: how long did it take for you to come up with that? luke: three or four minutes, depending on which is more impressive. [laughter] jonathan: good to see you. equity futures this morning up about 013% on the s&p -- about

0.3% on the s&p. tom: ism, would you look at more than me, there's construction and services, which means the lumbar dynamics are in services as well. that is something a lot of people aren't for mill your with. -- aren't familiar with. jonathan: i think this is where the pushback has been. chairman powell keep referring to one payrolls report. we've only seen one payrolls report. we've seen a ton of data elsewhere that is giving you a pretty decent picture of this recovery for the months ahead. tom: you've got to have three months to get the moving average. jonathan: i agree with you. but it is not a full picture of the economy right now by saying we've only seen one labor market report. lisa: i think they are trying to show the dovishness. the question is that they will be so good that the markets will be able to move ahead of them. jonathan: coming up at 8:00 a.m.

eastern time, and about 15 minutes, leon cooperman, omega family office chairman and ceo, joining us a little later on. yields are higher by about a basis point. your s&p 500 up 0.3 percent. on radio, on tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. treasury secretary janet yellen wants to me it clear she was not forecasting interest rate hikes to rein in any inflation spurred by president biden's spending. that came after remarks earlier in the day that ruffled. yellen says she doesn't anticipate higher inflation, but if there is one, she says the fed has the tools to deal with it. we asked the chairman of ubs about yellen's initial remarks and the impact of a growing economy. >> i think she just spoke in general about what the treasury secretary needs, expectations

around the yield curve and how to plan fiscal spinach or's. i think -- fiscal expenditures. i think she was just reflecting her forecast relative to everone else's forecasts, that we cannot assume that interest rates will stay anchored. ritika: he said that interest rates and central-bank balance sheets are part of the discussion going forward. the coronavirus wave that plunged india into the world's biggest health crisis has the potential to get worse in the coming weeks. some research projects the death toll could be more than. . double from where it is now one problem -- more than double from where it is now. spacex has received more than 500,000 preorders for its star leak -- its star link internet service. elon musk says he anticipates no problem meeting the demand. the company plans to eventually deploy 12,000 satellites.

global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> so much of the burden in our city and our country is placed

on the backs of workers while big corporations and wealthy people continue to get richer and richer, so i think it is important that we take a look certainly at tax policy and what our priorities are moving forward so that we ensure that everyone has a fair shot and an opportunity to live out the american dream. jonathan: that was kim janey, the city of boston interim mayor. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. wednesday morning, here's the price action, two hours and 12 minutes away from the opening bell. equities of 12 on the s&p, up 0.3%. yields are higher by a basis point on tens at 1.6049%. on euro-dollar, $1.20. tom: we go beneath the

headline numbers had a: 30. i like what you said on fx. em, i see a little bit of backup on mexican peso. also, turkish lira is testing 836. that will be one to watch as well. speaking of em, josh wingrove on the watch at the white house, and clearly president biden speaking this up as he speaks of the united states as the arsenal of medicine and virology against covid-19. josh, can we do it? can we actually do a medical marshall plan to these beleaguered nations? josh: well, it is an open question. the reason he pivoted to it is because the demand is really drying up in the u.s. in nearly every state, even with a collapse in supply. remember, we were thinking we would have 100 million johnson & johnson shots right now. we don't have that. still, we have more than enough for what we need. that's why the u.s. is saying we

are going to start giving stuff away, including the astrazeneca doses you heard president biden say. he's referring to those astra doses they can't use domestically, and there's not a lot of demand for even if he could, and they will give it to countries as things are slowing down. his new goal is essentially that the rate of shots over the next 60 days will only collapse by half of what it has been over the last month or so. tom: how do we do this? is this a military exercise to distribute all of this? how does the white house perceive that we will actually affect a global distribution? josh: one, right now he's been blocking other countries from buying directly. pfizer for the first time is sending doses to anyone other than the u.s. government, in particular mexico and canada.

so biden doesn't control that directly, but by getting out of the way, he will unleash that u.s. production on other countries that have ordered rackley from pfizer. the second side of the ledger is stuff that will probably include more astrazeneca, it could include johnson & johnson shots. room ember, he had that tie up with merck. the whole point of that deal was to raise production when the u.s. won't need many or all of those shots. so biden will send these doses out either directly or by stepping out of the way and letting pfizer and modernity would on their own. lisa: president biden talked about logistics around getting the vaccine. perhaps that is a little bit less so in certain areas. there is confusion, however, on the path to normalcy. what normalcy looks like. how quickly people can start getting together with other people, not wearing masks, whether you have to get inoculated to go back to work if you are a federal employee. what is the guidance? what is the sense you're getting

in terms of how much the federal government will lead and how much they are laying a framework? josh: they are being really cautious so far, critics saying to cautious in some cases, just by slowly bringing it up. they say if you are not vaccinated, if you are outdoors, you don't have to wear a mask. most people thought they could probably do that anyway. so they are really going in baby steps. they are trying to rein in steps people are already taking anyway. they don't see themselves as driving the behavior, but almost pulling it back a little bit. the other thing is we just don't know how anyone, federal government, private companies, schools will require vaccinations. anyone who has gotten that shot knows you just get a paper card, the simplest thing in the world, and it looks like a third rail issue to biden to say that we will not require vaccination registries. it just leaves you with the

impression that the polling is awful on it. so we will never have some sort of central database and will leave every institution to set their own rules. jonathan: what are we doing to open things up again and get people to travel back in the united states if they have been vaccinated? i've been fascinated by what is happening in the u.k. on a similar trajectory to the united states, and no talks publicly about reopening their travel corridor in a much bigger way. why not? josh: it's a good question. they are reciprocity questions. the eu is moving also to allow travel for people who have vaccinations. i think they are signaling that there will be news to come on that, but it does raise that question. if the cdc says you can start traveling back and forth if you get your vaccination, it is going to go back to that third rail question. but they have not said, in the

short answer, when they will resume travel. jonathan: similar story in the u.k. as well. it has been a topic that nobody wants to discuss publicly, vaccine passports. josh wingrove, bloomberg correspondent, thank you. the new target, 70% vaccinated by july 4. the current data, 56% of adults have had at least one dose, 41% fully vaccinated. we got to get an extra, what, 100 million doses over the next few months. the lever -- the average over the last seven days, we've come down over the last month to about 2.2 million on average over the last seven days. tom: i am curious what you to think. i believe i have a u.s. passport , and it is not a big deal. jonathan: you have a u.s. passport. tom: why am i upset if i have a vaccine passport? jonathan: some people are worried that that is a start of a loss of freedom, and that it goes somewhere deeper that they don't want things to go. you give up a degree of freedom around your health, your medical

data, your health history. that is just the beginning. that's always the concern. is that not a legitimate concern? that if you hand over power to authorities, you never get it back and it goes deeper and further? lisa: in a health crisis, there are also different parameters in terms of what is being free. not to get less topical, but if everybody is going to contribute to some sort of registry, that gives everybody more freedom to move around and have faith if there is some sort of way to determine people who are protected. jonathan: it is always the ethical argument. you have to give up a degree of freedom to get a greater degree of freedom from somewhere else. in this country, does everyone in it want that data on one centralized system? that's the question we got to ask. lisa: and that is a really controversial question. tom: i guess there wasn't a polio passport, a measles passport. lisa: no, but schools require it in order to enter it. tom: thank you. jonathan: and corporations will

make their own decisions on this as well. i agree. tom: well said, lisa. well said, jon. jonathan: i'm ok, tom. i don't need the validation. [laughter] yields higher by a basis point, 1.6032%.

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jonathan: two hours away from the opening bell in new york city. here's the price action this wednesday. up 15 points, we advance about 0.3%. on the nasdaq, 0.6%. you are familiar with the conversation in earnings season so far about execution, about cost, about the ability to passed on -- to pass on those costs. you might see it in the data when we get it. the adp report comes in about 45 minutes' time. the rally we have seen in commodities has been absolutely phenomenal. here's two,. copper -- here's two, copper and

crude. 34% on crude year to date. higher transportation costs are part of the conversation, higher freight costs. we saw that with under armour yesterday. really decent numbers, boosted the outlook. but when it came to margins, that is what spooked people. that's where the attention is at the moment. tom: we are focused on corn, focused on wheat, focused on whatever. you are right, brent at $70 has really crept up on us. jonathan: and demand is coming back. tom: well said. jonathan: thanks, tom. where is that coming from, well said? do you want me to validate your work? well said. lisa, you should be dr. phil. i don't know how you do it. [laughter] two year yields unchanged. i think we got to reflect on yesterday just a little bit more. a rate scare, but no movement in rates, really? i saw a nasdaq scare for a moment going into the comments

from ticket terry yellen -- from secretary yellen. that is going to be the test. if you really think rates are going to go up, if there's a real concern about rates, if you want to see a sign of that, a credible sign of that in the market, don't go to the nasdaq. go to the front end of the curve in america. 0.1625%. that is where the prospect of higher yields will show up. that is where you will see it in the bond market, and that is where we did not see it yesterday. lisa, i can see the face you are pulling out of the corner of my eye. just saying. say what you want and we can move on. [laughter] lisa: if that is the case, is it about tapering, not the rate hike? jonathan: secretary yellen's comments were not about tapering. they were about rate hikes. that might actually start the green light for the sequencing towards higher interest rates. secretary yellen was talking about rates, and everybody was talking about an equity market that had a big downdraft because we were worried about rates,

spooked by a rates comment. what happened in rates yesterday? lisa: it is truly a mystery. well said. jonathan: i feel so much better. [laughter] here's romaine bostick with your movers this morning. romaine: good morning. let's go back to what has been going on in the commodity space. copper in lending holding at that -- in london holding at that $10,000 level. freeport-mcmoran up. the copper market will be in deficit before we get to the end of the year. that will continue to act as a tailwind for some of the companies. you are also seeing a lot of those inflationary pressures actually worked. of course, everything that has been going on in the oil space with brent crude and nymex crude , conocophillips shares, they are up higher in the premarket by 2.5%.

yesterday on the program, we talked about they are looking for any rocks they can find to drill. they are going to see, with the guards to oil prices, continuing to drift higher, as well as some of those in product prices continuing to drift higher as well. tom: we've got gm coming out with david westin here in a bit. give us the filter you see where i see a headline that says gm strength, especially in north america, china, and gm financial. we get back to the recovery of china leading the way. romaine: this is a company not only is able to expand on production, it also has tremendous pricing power in this environment. on top of all of that, you have the perception of innovation that a lot of people see mary barre doing with the progress on autonomous driving and alternative fuel vehicles.

for a certain time, this was very underappreciated. not necessarily anymore. it will be interesting to see what comes out of that interview. david is always able to get some pretty good comments out of her. tom: thank you so much. romaine bostick on "the closed" this afternoon -- on "the close" this afternoon. we speak to economists, but rarely do they piece together this confidence. thomas costerg is looking at 10% growth, and boldly says 6% follow-on. are we grossly underestimating the sustainability of the kind of earnings, the kind of global and u.s. oomph that romaine was talking about? thomas: there were checks in the

mail in march, and you spend them in april and may, so that means very strong growth in the second quarter. after that, i think we will have less fiscal support. we will have an economy that returns to pre-coronavirus trend. we knew it would be more difficult to get strong growth in the second half of the year, and especially in 2022, so i would expect growth to moderate after a very strong second quarter. tom: on a trend basis, do we moderate down to something that is gloomy? do we moderate to some run rate in your head? or do we moderate to something that is more poignant? -- more buoyant? thomas: my answer is we go back to the precrisis trend, no more, no less. but i am against the view that we are in the roaring 20's and that we are going to have a new era of u.s. growth. i think we are just back to

normal, and back to normal still means some struggles in terms of productivity and demographics as well. by the way, the news on the demographics front are not good. but i think the real issue i have is with regards to the savings rate. are we entering a new era where the savings rate may stay higher than precrisis, or is it really going to go down even lower than precrisis? i think consumers will stay a bit cautious going forward, so i would expect the savings rate to remain a bit higher than it would pre-covid. jonathan: that is three massive themes we need to get into. one is the demographics. the second point is the degree to which we will really pare down the savings rate and lead to a sustainable boom in this country through the rest of this year. the third when i want to pick up on is the near-term risk knowing into the payrolls report.

we can gauge demand in several different ways in an economy. you can see it in the pmi's. you can see it in the ism. there's arguably a demand shock in this economy right now. that is leading economists like you to look for huge numbers this friday and the payrolls report. you are looking for 1.5 million. the risk is that we see the demand, but we don't see the end result. that actually, it is quite difficult to get the hiring done. we are talking about real people here. 1.5 million. what is the risk around that? it is not the demand is less than expected. it just hasn't heated up -- hasn't ended up with the result many people expected. thomas: you're right. on the demand side, demand for workers is really huge. we see that in all of economic data, the business surveys and so on. the question is, will they come? it is true, there is a bit of uncertainty here. the uncertainty is also due to

very generous unemployment benefits in the u.s. you may argue that some people prefer to stay on high benefits than to go back to their work because to go back to econ 101, there are two ways to adjust supply and demand. it is either in prices, and this case wages, or the quiddity. firms are not yet ready to increase massively wages to rehire, so there is still a lid on wages, if you will. that means that potentially, workers may be more hesitant to come back. that is the main risk going into friday's report, but again, all of the demand-side indicators are really strong, and there is massive demand for workers right now. lisa: really interesting thoughts. i want to pivot to another thought you had in your recent note, saying that inflation won't necessarily come on a sustained basis from this

supply/demand dynamic we are talking about right now, but the risk of a loss of confidence when we transition to central-bank digital currencies and money supply going directly and consumers' -- consumers' pockets in the next recession. can you elaborate? thomas: it is related to the manufacturing cycle. i am less worried about that side of things. i am more worried about the money supply and central banking angle to the question. that is that if central banks go down the route of central-bank digital currencies, basically they will be able to put money directly into your pockets. that is a route which worries me a bit. i think the inflation risks coming from central-bank digital currencies is actually much higher and much more pernicious than the inflation risk coming from the productive side of the economy.

jonathan: we've got to leave it there. looking forward to payrolls report. want to turn back to the gm numbers. gm is not ford. that's the take away. that stock is up more than 3%, unlike ford, which really had to pour some cold water over previous guidance. gm is reaffirming guidance. they say v-chip shortage won't impact growth. they do expected downturn at some point in the second quarter, but ford got absolutely hammered when it had to cut production for the second corder last week. that stock was down hard by more than 9%. that is the difference. execution within the sector, not just a broad sector story. tom: major shout out to citigroup. they absolutely nailed this distinction. we make a joke about it, but it is well said. it has been a huge polarity

between ford motor and general motors. jonathan: i am really looking forward to the comments from mary barre on those production issues because the language in the statement is just a bit vague. it is not as upfront and out there may be as ford was last week. the chairman and ceo with david westin a little bit later this morning. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the world faced its worst hunger problem in at least five years in 2020 due to the pandemic, and the outlook remains grim. people across 55 countries suffered from issues ranging to a -- ranging from a food crisis to famine. that is 20 million more than the previous year. london is emerging from lockdown , bruised by brexit and the pandemic that had the u.k.

capital harder than other regions. the london accounts for about1/4 of the u.k. -- london accounts for about 1/4 of the u.k.'s output. residents are moving to the suburbs and the exit from the european union is draining away high-paying work in finance. president biden once 70% of u.s. adults to receive at least one dose of the coronavirus vaccine by july 4. according to the cdc, 56% of adults who received at least one shot -- adults have received at least one shot. that makes it easier for sites to offer walk-in appointments. jessica alba's honest company began trading today. they raised $413 million in an ipo price within a market range. they specialize in baby products such as diapers and wipes. alva, -- alba, the owner, has a stake valued at about $90

million. 3.6 million was the sixth annual drop in a row when the brunt of the pandemic will be recorded. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> one of the ways we are going to get to 70% vaccination is to

get our business community to be proactive, just as we are at the state level. we had a good call with the chamber of commerce on this conflict this morning. i think the transit commuting reality will be slow to recover, but when folks come back and actually participate, it will be a positive experience. jonathan: phil murphy there, the new jersey governor. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. around about 25 minutes, we will get the number from the adp, the adp jobs report. up around 15 on the s&p 500, we advance 0.4%. yields up about a basis point on the 10 year to 1.1632% -- 1.6032%. crude rallying in the premarket, up about 3% -- gm rallying in the premarket, up about 3%. the company saying the following on the chip shortage. "our supply and manufacturing teams are creating effective

alternative solutions, and our sales teams together with our dealers are finding creative ways to satisfy customers despite lean inventories." tom: to me, it's got a real boilerplate feel to it. the westin-barre conversation is going to be way more important. jonathan: i agree with you. tom: it is homogenized. jonathan: ford saying they would have to cut 50% of plan production in the second quarter. i do think this headline that we are prioritizing full-size pickups and ev's with chip supply and this won't damage ev growth, remember, it is the ev story that has helped deliver some big gains outside of the reopening for the likes of gm and ford. tom: absolutely. we will have to see where that goes. the vix comes in almost a figure , 18.63. david wilson joins us now,

looking at a chart particularly not on apple, amazon, boring. david, what do you have? david: this is an industry group that has taken a bit of a hit in relative terms. tom: crushed. david: -- was focusing on an exchange traded fund that tracks something called the s&p north american expanded technologies software index. i know that is a mouthful, but we are talking about companies on both sides of the u.s. and canadian border that focus on systems software, applications software, and home entertainment programs. when you put it altogether, this is a group that peaked relative to the s&p 500 back in december. since then, it has been down 16% , so we are talking about a relative right down here. it goes to show you, software stocks have certainly been among the best performers for some

time as technology has done relatively well. it is a bit of a different story this year when you look at the 11 main industry groups in the s&p 500. you see technology towards the back of the pack here. i had of consumer staples, but pretty much behind everybody else. tom: day-to-day in the grind, are these tech companies linked to the big tech names, or are they two separate worlds? david: there is sort of a one and the other element to it. there's no doubt the big tech companies have been setting the tone, but take an example from late yesterday, mcafee, the security software maker, which just became an independent company a few months back. they came out with their first set of quarterly results. they didn't go over well. shares were down late yesterday. haven't seen any trading today. it is definitely going to be one to watch, though. that is consistent with some of the concern we have seen, particularly in software stocks. tom: i look at this, and this is

this raging tech battle as we look at general strategists like jungle up -- like jon golub, and leon cooperman coming up. jonathan: let's take the price target over at credit suisse right now, 4600 on the s&p 500. can we get there without the participation of big tech? i think a lot of people would struggle with that idea. lisa: i think a lot of people would say perhaps it would lag behind. there would still be this cyclical push to the entire market, even if tech perhaps isn't at the forefront. jonathan: let's go to the numbers out of gm. i know i sound like a broken record, so forgive me. this quarter, huge demand. there is huge demand in this economy right now. it is about whether you can meet that with supply. we saw the difficulty from caterpillar warning about that for the year ahead. you don't see that in gm this morning. the stock is up by 3.3% before we catch up with mary bar about

an hour from now. on the inventories, 335,000 vehicles over at gm, almost half the 668,000 of a year ago. that is coming from our detroit bureau chief on that particular stat. that is important. these companies are starting to run leads of inventories very quickly. tom: very quickly, david wilson. you have covered this for bloomberg for decades. this is not the slumped over general motors of 1996 or even 30 years ago. david: with its wholesale transition to electric vehicles -- tom: they are really doing it, aren't they? david: they kind of have to. tesla has laid out what happens if you move into that area, and we see a lot of companies go there as well. ford, volkswagen, plenty more. tom: david wilson, greatly appreciate that. i look at the mary barra thing, and to go back to a hugely homogenized press statement.

it will be interesting to get some color on that. jonathan: i think we want detail on how ford has done, what ford got damaged by, and how gm has helped to avoid it. lisa: net sales and revenue actually missed expectations. net sales and revenue at $32.47 billion for the estimate of 32.77 billion dollars, i am trying to square that with earnings-per-share. what was the reason for their actually operating either more lean lee or making more profit per vehicle -- more leanly or making more profit per vehicle? jonathan: first quarter earnings were a blowout. the stock is up by 3.5%. i think we are all in the same page here. a lot of questions for the leader of general motors about an hour from now, when we catch up with the chairman and ceo. what is gm doing that ford hasn't been able to do? it keeps coming back to execution. that is what we have all been grappling with in this market. it was almost a simple trade.

you pick the sector, you pick the factor, you pick the style. now it is within those sectors when things get a little more nuanced. we saw that last week with pinterest and netflix. we didn't see that with alphabet and facebook. what are we seeing this morning in the auto sector? something we didn't see with ford, we see with gm. tom: andrew slimmon said yesterday, an estimate of a 3% miss in earnings. he makes clear the bark is worse then the bite out of yesterday. you and i were going back-and-forth on that after the "surveillance" nap. the bounce back was tangible. jonathan: the bounce back was tangible. tom: i meant the markets, not the nap. lisa: it's nuanced. jonathan: is it nuance wednesday? lisa: what is it, sleepy wednesday? tom: snooze fest wednesday. lisa: with nuanced monday. jonathan: it will be in a couple of minutes when leon cooperman joins us, the omega family

office chairman and ceo. he will join us shortly. equity futures up 0.4 percent. heard on bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." yields higher at 1.6067%. this is bloomberg. ♪

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♪ >> before, we would have to see several years of labor market recovery to see that participation recover. i think there is a unique factor here that could make that happen more quickly. >> right now, the markets are being fed and cripple mix of positive news -- an incredible mix of positive news. >> you've got to get to pre-pandemic employment, and i think you will see auditory and fiscal policy will be fun a mental until we get there -- will be fundamental until we get there. >> we do think it is transitory, but we also have to admit that there is a very fair chan