projected to be that we are where we projected to be before the pandemic. >> we shut down and turned it on, and it is coming with some messy friction. >> we all recognize the economy right now is experiencing a launch the likes of we -- the likes of which we have not seen since the end of world war ii. >> the last thing in the world i really care about is that wages are going to explode. they are not. announcer: this is "bloomberg surveillance," with jonathan ferro, tom keene, and lisa abramowicz. jon: good morning, good morning, this is bloomberg surveillance, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. back to 4200, tom keene come your estimate, one million. tom: my estimate is one million. i won a pool four years ago, and since then -- imagine what the

standard error is at this time around. i love what david from dartmouth college just said in the show opening. wages will not explode. that is the question this morning. jon: that is a question for a couple of months' time. the headline number, the range, wide, wide, wide. the low end, 700 k. are we throwing darts this morning, tom? tom: i don't know if we are throwing darts, but i see a very constructive tone in the markets before we get to this key economic data. we could take it any number of ways all the way up to where you speak with secretary walsh later this morning. the jobs data -- i really don't know where to go beneath the headline data. we will make it up at 8:30. jon: lisa, we are going to be looking at the price action. how does a market respond to an

upside surprise or a downside surprise? lisa: that's what i was going to say. i love that tom is saying if you just make things up, we will listen to it. basically people are expecting an upside beat, that basically if there is not some sort of big beat, people will be disappointed, you look at yields and stocks falling, that i think is what i'm looking for. jon: what a morning we have coming up for you. payroll is just around the corner. we advance .2%, three 4200 on the s&p 500. yields have been lower through the week. up just -- euro-dollar, 1.2081. in the commodity market, copper with a record, through 10k, taking out a decade-long record high. lisa: the interesting thing about the copper rally, people think it is going to continue.

dramatically so if the dollar weakens. and particularly if you see the demand for renewable vehicles. we get the non-pharma payrolls report. the key question for me is compositional. we continue to talk about the k shaped recovery and we know that the fed is watching this. even if you get the blowout number, how much is this evenly distributed throughout the labor market, how much our services coming back online? and how much is this a precursor for a bigger wave across all sectors in terms of getting to full employment? at 11:30 a.m., president biden is going to be talking about the payrolls report. interesting to see how he uses this, because he will try to use it to push his stimulus package, the infrastructure spending package. yet some people say if that is too good, doesn't remove some of the umph from getting it passed? can janet yellen will be -- and

janet yellen be joining jen psaki, interesting to see how she will dance around any kind of rate move after she made statements about rates. jon: not a production, not a recommendation. maybe she will repeat that a little bit later. i'm looking forward to the coverage we have lined up in the next couple of hours, an expose of conversation almost after that almost two hours after the -- michael mckee with neel kashkari. later this morning, looking for the boom economy. the bond market, rosenberg of blackrock. also commentary from the financial stability report. the idea being that if risk appetite drops, prices might be vulnerable. and kit juckes of socgen this morning with this fantastic line -- the barman suggested another drink, and tom warned of

exuberance. tom: this is something that lisa, john, and -- lisa, jon, and i have worked on for years. this is the controversial president of the minneapolis fed. this will be absolutely riveting. subreddit assume a rainy and -- jeff rosenberg is going to explain the real yield to jon ferro so he doesn't go down in flames this afternoon on the real yield at 1:00 p.m. jon: thank you, tom. i really appreciate it. it means a lot. tom: i go back to truman. this is the most important jobs day since time began. jon: ok, let's bring in the e-commerce and former fed professor. how would you process this

payroll report that comes in at 8:30? >> certainly we want to look for signs of how the labor market has led to wage pressures. exactly along the lines that you guys were just discussing, whether there will be more jobs pressure or not. i think some of the data that we are looking at is the labor force participation rate and the population ratio. a lot of people have left the labor force, and the question is, will they start to come back in? if they don't, we are much were likely to see wage pressure as the economy rebounds. tom: what is the string, randy? you are our foremost financial economist. back in englewood a million years ago, i'm sure you figured out moving averages. how many data points does the former governor of the fed need to say this is a trend? randy: well, it is always tough

because you get a trend, and that of course there will be a turning point. it is hard to know. i would never look at only one or two data points. tom: ok, well, how many? randy: it is hard to say exactly. there is no particular number. looking at a whole variety of pieces of information, how they all kind of fit together. it can be different in different circumstances. lisa: how did this fed differ in terms of the goals, -- what employment meant? in addition to just the headline unemployment numbers? randy: that is a very interesting and important point because clearly the way jay powell has talked about the new framework, inflation targeting, it is something that is about trying to reach an average inflation target over time, where they are trying to be proactive, that you see inflation coming, and also the

characterization of the labor market, that -- talking about how if they come to run a little bit hot, that can have a different message from many different groups that often don't benefit at the beginning of an upturn, but benefit more into it and further on in the upturn. so they are going to really want to push the unemployment rate down further for acting. so i think it is very different than the regime that was there when i was there 15 years ago. jon: these are lessons learned from the previous cycle. the question i keep going back to -- why the lesson to learn from the previous cycle compared to this one? what we are experiencing now seems to be so unique. randy: i think it is a boom like we have never really seen before, because we have a government imposed collapse, which typically you do not often see that. whether done unintentionally, sometimes governments do have collapses, shutting the

government -- shutting the economy down. with savings and pent up demand, i think you will see really strong growth. as you were mentioning, a lot of commodity prices have come up. you might see wage pressures also. the key will be if this is sort of a quick, short-term transitory thing, or prices are pushed up, or is this leading to more inflation down the line? tom: one of our themes on the show is to look at the i.s. curve and say what is the economy doing versus the financial economy, where you are truly an expert. are you more focused on the financial dynamics of rate inflation, etc., or are you more focused on a study of america's real economy, given this natural disaster? randy: it is really the interaction between the two. looking at the bounce back in the real economy and how much pressure we are putting on, inflation, inflation expectations, how that will then lead to potentially higher

borrowing costs, and then could that lead to an anchoring of expectations? if we do get a sustained boom, we can inflation moving up more rapidly and for a more extended to of time, where people will say it has given up on 2%. even in the longer run, so now i need compensation in the longer-term interest rates. the fed certainly doesn't want to do that, but they could get into a difficult situation if the inflation is stronger and less strong than they are hoping for. jon: good to catch up on this payrolls friday. randy kroszner, professor of economics. the 10-year yield, 1.57. this big conversation about a massive boom will dominate this morning. it has held a labor shortage and how governors across the united

states have started to respond to that. we saw it with montana earlier this week. we saw it with south carolina over the last 24 hours. these governors are pushing back over additional entitlement for the unemployed, believing that his dis-incentivizing a return to work. we have not heard the end of this. tom: we haven't. jon, it is very fluid, and i think john is saying -- jon is saying that we go back and forth between park at coverage and financial coverage and really economy coverage at 8:30 -- this is a really unique day. jon: could not agree more. lisa, do you think the demand was there but they could not get the hiring done? lisa: yes, trying to understand what this number actually means is the key problem. will it represent the cap as to how hard it is to get people into the labor force, or will it represent the dynamism with respect to how much companies want to hire? jon: marty walsh joining us

after the payrolls report on bloomberg the open. around 9:45-ish eastern time, the 10-year unchanged at 1.575 three. the payrolls report just around the corner. the estimate one million. this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ ritika: economist expect a sign today that easing business restrictions are bringing more americans back to work. the jobs report is out at 8:30 a.m. new york time, and it is likely to show that the economy added about a million jobs last month. our survey shows the jobless rate is down about two percentage points. a new report from the fed warns investors are gorging on risk, and that could lead to stressed valuations and vulnerability in

the u.s. financial system. governor lael brainard says that the capital implosion says more -- shows more hedge funds means exposure is needed. there is more fallout at credit suisse in the wake of the archegos collapse. the current head of equities for asia-pacific, replacing ryan nelson, who stepped down after the credit suisse loss of $4.5 billion from archegos. and china, growing global demand, adjusting commodity prices. it grew 32% over a year ago. the parent of british airways, iag, reported mounting losses, expecting only a gradual recovery in travel. the company is also saying that siberia -- aer lingus will -- also owns aer lingus.

it will take until at least 2023 for a rebound. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries, i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> china has proven over and

over again that it is willing to be anticompetitive, coercive, steal our technology, use it against us. so the third thing that you need to know is that we are taking it incredibly seriously and we are going to be as tough as we need to be. jon: it is a different administration, the same message. that was gina raimondo. alongside tom keene, lisa abramowicz, i am jon ferro. euro-dollar positive come a little more than .1, approaching 1.21, 1.2 084. your headline is in the commodity market. i should say you're headed that your headlines are in the commodity market right now. copper taking out a decade-long record high. we have had back to back weekly gains for crude. we have seen some big moves in the commodity market. tom: i'm glad you mentioned copper, and particularly london

copper, with some real depth. i look at the inflation-adjusted copper price, back 30 years. we are right back to china boom highs. we are not back to the inflation-adjusted real copper peak of 2011. but it is shocking, jon, how quickly we have gotten there. the rate of change right now, with a jump condition overnight, is extra neri. jon: let's pick out your words carefully. the china boom. this cycle? tom: different. jon: out of china, exports were booming. if you look at the copper imports, month on month they were lower. that is mike big question for the super cycle commodity board right now, lisa. can that develop absent a china boom? lisa: the difference this time around is the move to electric vehicles, the move to renewable energies. that will push the spending develop medical the western world. in addition to every wealth that could potentially drive additional gains.

there is also the question of shortages. that we are seeing across the board. along to this persistent how do we get around that? jon: the decisions made in the cycle shape the conditions for this one. that is what has happened with metals and mining over the last 10 years. tom: jon, we know that you start with your wheatabix, flown in from london. i got in my raisin bran, and my father used to take the raisins out and steal them from me. it was torture. but, jon, this is mostly the metals that you mention's -- and the recovery, -- that you mentioned -- iron ore, etc. -- jon: the lack of a supply response is going to be a big issue here. that is not how this works.

the supply response on the crude side might be quicker, what even goldman sachs and jeff currie's pushback against that, that it will not spohn quickly enough. tom: the shock on a jobs friday is the rate of change. let's go to the rate of change in washington right now, with emily wilkins. my have to go to the voting rights story. florida, -- i'm confused, who loses from vote restrictions? i'm seeing percolation that obviously democrats and liberals lose, but even republicans may lose from voting rights changes in the southern part of the nation and ohio. is that true? emily: well, look at exactly what they are changing here, tom. a number of these bigger restrictions -- they are restrictions that would impact mail-in voting, one of the ones that we are seeing go through the texas legislature right now is saying that local officials cannot preemptively mail out

absentee ballots, even those who apply for them. who mailed them out in the last election? it was more democrats. you say way more -- you see way more democrats -- you also see restrictions in urban areas, limiting the amount of polling places. democrats say things that will impact their constituency, as well as minority voters. the democrats are making the case that this is going to impact them, their constituents, this is going to impact black voters, hispanic voters. republicans make the same point, that they are still adamant that there was fraud in the 2020 election. that is not based in any evidence, but it is something that many republicans still hold come and these legislatures say they are trying to target that. jon: as pertains to the payrolls of -- payroll report, the south carolina in the last 24 hours

said the following. what was intended to be a short-term financial assistance for the vulnerable and displaced has turned into a dangerous federal entitlement. there has been pushed back from montana and south carolina. what is the position from the administration? emily: to a certain extent, these governors can do what they want. resident bite does not have control over whether or not a state chooses that president biden does not have control over whether or not a state chooses to accept it. interestingly enough, our economists say that one of the reasons that perhaps these states are seeing these companies in these states are having difficulty hiring workers is because these workers are not necessarily ready to go back yet. schools might not be open, they may need to be around and take care of their kids. they are not fully vaccinated, they are worried about their health and safety. interestingly enough, those are issues that the biden administration is trying to tackle with this next ill, offering the child -- with this

next bill, offering the child tax care credit. there is this give-and-take about what exactly is needed to get workers back to the workforce. these governors are betting that if they cut some of the unemployment benefits, incentivizing people to get back to work, that will do the trick. in the biden administration, they are taking a bigger picture, looking at other factors that might be preventing people from going back to work. jon: emily wilkins there. lisa, the focus is the additional $300 in unemployment benefits that i believe expires in september. i am they will put that program together today, given data that we are seeing. that program probably would not expire in september. lisa: here is the issue, though. there is the issue of, do people decide not to get back in the labor force because they are getting an additional $300 a week that they know will expire. or will they lock in a job because they are more concerned

about long-term unemployment? the data is mixed. i'm interested to know how much joe biden will address this directly when he gives a speech today at 11:30 a.m. jon: it is a big topic. tom: it is. i talked with secretary walsh about the red sox. they are giving up seven runs a game. it is very important question. marty walsh has some questions to answer because they will have to restructure policy out of this. imagine that we get 900,000 last month, a million today, and 1.1 million month. what do you do with that? jon: it is a feature -- is it a feature or a bug? keeping this place through september because it will force employers to pay more to hire. tom: and randy kroszner will not answer the question. as a former governor, he doesn't want to step on powell.

neel kashkari will answer the question. jon: i doubt it. he is on a little bit later, though. neel kashkari with michael mckee, 10 minutes after the payrolls report drops. from new york city this morning, good morning. this is bloomberg. ♪

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♪ jonathan: payrolls report two hours away. equity futures look like this, we advance a quarter of a percent on the s&p. 11 points on the nasdaq. on the russell by 0.7%. that israel headlines are this morning on the commodities. copper, all-time high, taking down the peak of more than a decade ago. here is the issue for me, the gap in between. it is what is shipping the conditions for this market. the decisions that were made over the last 10 years on the supply-side. that miners, rio made the decision after the bust not to repeat the decisions they made

previously which was to add volume to iron ore and metals and mining products. because of that we are faced with a monster boom without the supply response and without the month to respond with supply anytime soon either because of the discipline that may or may not stay around for commodities, energy and metals. that is what will be interesting for me, how does the supply-side respond? an additional piece to this, this commodity rally is very different to what we saw 10 years ago, for a host of reasons, including, it does not include a big outlook for a monster china boom. that is not the story this time, tom, and it is worth considering. tom: it is. for those of you on radio, that chart is a peek from 211. become done flat and then it is -- that chart is a peak from 2011. we come down flatwe have seen energy rip-, run it again this

week, we have seen equities, iron or all-time high, copper, all-time high. crude, back-to-back weekly gains. yields lower on the week. but what have we seen this week? energy did nicely. banks, ripping again this week. i have not seen high-yield. very curious what is going on in this bond market. tom: i look at the real yield. it was -0.90. -0.88. if i had to interpolate it, i get to -0.75 or -0.70, given all the good news out there, it is not happening. what is happening,, carl riccadonna joins us, on this historic job date. it is a cliché, carl. the headline numbers, i don't know what the headline numbers

are out of this pandemic and i certainly don't know what is beneath it. what will you look for in a micro data this morning? carl: i think the focus today has to be on, to make a little joke, string theory, as it relates to what jay said at his interpretation of events, because he is very concerned about the attentional economics card evident in the economy from what we have endured over the last 12 months. and the fact that age .4 million workers who were employed in january of 2020 are not employed today -- 8.4 million workers. it is a fundamental driver of how we think about fed policy. i am not concerned about the diffusion of job gains. the real focus is going to be on if we are producing, one million job gains this month, how many months and that go on? i still see eight or nine months like that, then there is still

the expectation that this is a very dovish leaning fed. tom: we have neel kashkari coming up. we have way too much physics on the show this morning. carl, you mentioned string theory. you know the quantum gravity, the drop that goes on within a drift equation. that gravity is we're going to get back to something, week, or -- weaker than where we were before the pandemic. to you agree with that negative tone? carl: we very much have to consider that in that capacity. we know that gdp will be off the charts for this quarter and possibly the next quarter as well, and there is beneficial stimulus that will make things look absolutely robust. we have to start looking beyond that stimulus high, and perhaps we have got a whiff of that this week, with the institute for supply management surveys coming off of their peaks. maybe we will hit peak stimulus

in the next month or two and then we start this migration down toward the new normal for the economy, which i think will look a lot like the old normal for the economy. what was driving the lack of wage rushers in the economy prior to the pandemic, we had very low unemployment -- wage pressure. with things like automation, and also low unionization rates among the labor force. there wasn't a lot of bargaining power among workers. there may be some now since there is such an acute shortage of workers, but i think that tiger has not changed its stripes. once we get past of this artificial stimulus that is propping up activity. jonathan: it is easy to make the cycle call than in near-term call right now. i know how hard you work and how hard all the economists on wall street work. how is it you all look at the same data, we have 700 k on the

low-end, and then this wide range all the way up to 2.1 million. how do we end up with a range of that wide? carl: it is really the fluctuation point where you see these widening disparities in numbers. ordinarily the standard deviation on the payroll print might be + or -80,000 or so. now it is this dramatically wide span. some folks are looking at different data points. banks, for instance, as internal data they can look at to see how credit card spending is going, what paychex looks like. everyone has unique data sets. but everyone has their own view of this trend of birth. the question is that trend of growth. the question is if that turns out to be inflationary or not, i do see a transitory pickup in inflation. but if you look at the market and what it is rising in the collect dust -- what the market is -- pricing in, it tells you that this is deflationary and

not long-term inflationary. lisa: a lot of people look at the jobs as pointing to how much ground we have to make up. yet i think of the jobs deficit and how difficult it is to understand, because the economy has changed in the past 14 months. on these jobs may not be coming back, or they may be coming back in a different way. how are you accounting for that? how big of an influence over your calculation is that? carl: anywhere from lumber pricing tower semiconductor pricing, to labor market pricing really, there are mismatches. an economy that is here and toward growing 2% is hitting double-digit growth rates. there are frictions when that occurs. there will be mismatches in the labor market and we will see evidence of that today and a net several months. the truth serum for the economy will be once we get to say,

labor day of this year and the extended unemployment benefits start to expire, and we get to more normal of a pace of growth. then you will have a better read of these underlying dynamics of the economy. workers really will have more bargaining power. tom: do you have any faith in any market economist's truth serum for guesstimating q3 or q4? we have very large variables in the current environment. the massive stimulus checks that rolled out in the march and april period, will continue to prop up things like retail sales and other measures of activity. in addition to that we have large questions about what consumers are going to do about this mountain of savings they are sitting on and wealth appreciation that they have in both real estate and financial portfolios. we have to see how that plays out in the economy.

again, has the tiger changed its stripes? consumers are more frugal now than they were 24 months ago. as we get further away from the crisis, you will see that things change suddenly, but it is not a watershed change. with those big variables, it could dramatically impact where we are in terms of growth. we are looking for 7.7% growth in the economy. that is the fastest since 1983. the consensus is a little bit lower than that. where we fall on that spectrum will determine what economic conditions look like in 2022. jonathan: what is your number today? carl: we are about 995,000. there is a bit of an artificial momentum build that we saw in march because of the bad weather in february, so there was a weather in fact that boosted the much numbers. there might be later -- there was a weather effect that

boosted the march numbers. jonathan: we call it the 985 blooming. carl riccadonna, good to see you. tom: 995. jonathan: it is one of those large variables world was talking about just then, the savings rate, that has to be the key variable for a lot of people for the outlook this year. lisa, i think the answer to that question in terms of estimates, they vary loudly when you ask economists. ritika:. lisa: from bank of america, there is michelle who has data showing that people are ratcheting up the spending and how much they are eating down the savings. the key question is who is doing the saving? is it that individuals not going on vacations and they have a lesser propensity to spend? or is it the low income individuals? that is hard to determine.

jonathan: that is why we have a wide range on a series of data points when it comes to estimates, and we have seen that again today. 2.1 million at the high end over at jefferies. 700 k at the low end. and right bang in the middle, your median, one million. just a beautiful round number, one million on the payrolls report, tom, at 830 eastern. tom: let's remind folks that the boom economy was 220,000, long ago and far away. we got down to 150000 and we were frightened of the future. and here we are at five times statistics. lisa: i want to say that you nailed it, tom. you said this is like a disappointment. a low-volume figure. the idea that 995,000 jobs is lowballing, i would argue that that is a sentiment across wall street. if it is a consensus, it will be received as a downside surprise.

jonathan: which is why standard chartered thinks we need a number of 2 million to recalibrate expeditions around the federal reserve. equity market, up 11 on the s&p 500. 157 -- you don't make sense and i just move on. [laughter] they are very expensive. lisa: they are more analog. jonathan: do you want a secondhand car? tom: i got in 1954 nash. jonathan: tom keene is driven. this is bloomberg. ♪ jacob: with your first word news, i am ritika gupta. president biden stunned allies with his support for waving protection for the coronavirus vaccine, a reversal of luck standing u.s. policy that long-standing u.s.

policy. but there are signs that the president is interested in modest compromise. meanwhile, germany says it opposes a waiver. a warning from the fed, it says that the rising appetite for risk is creating vulnerability in the u.s. financial system. the central bank says prices could be vulnerable to significant declines in that appetite follows. fed governor lael brainard also cited archegos capital as a cause for more hedge fund disclosures. jp morgan chief executive officer jimmie once congress to spell out targets for creating jobs if lawmakers approve president biden's massive spending measures. in a interview, dimon said, quote, , "just throwing money does not work." he said if taxes are raised, there should be an itemized estimate of how the money will be used. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by over 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta.

♪ this is bloomberg.

>> it is really important to get the vaccine out there as quickly

as possible. a major impediment is access to intellectual property. there is an urgency here. and that is what the waiver is about. it is not changing the basic framework. the question is do we make it happen quickly? that is what the temporary ip waiver is all about. jonathan: nobel laureate justice to goods there, columbia university economics professor. from new york city, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. we are up 11 points on the s&p 500, we advance one-third of a percent. yields are unchanged. 8:30, the pill mills report -- the payrolls report. one million is the median number. here is a quote from the german government--our manufacturing

capacity and high quality standards, not the patterns. the united states have one position. allies in europe are not completely on board. tom: to say the least, i thought it was really telling, for this to come from the engineer and scientist and chemist, angela merkel. it was a huge deal and hugely symbolic. jonathan: do you see what georgetown said -- there is more than a touch of hypocrisy in what the u.s. is doing. it has been the number 1 ho arder of vaccines. if this is about making sure vaccine supply gets to low income countries, why aren't we opening up x what of the vaccines and do something about the stockpiles in a bigger way? why are we focused on patent protection, which could take a long time to actually solve anything? and on top of that, why wasn't there a conversation with the allies before this was pushed forward? tom: the conversation with the allies is the key point.

it has to be a joint effort. this goes back to the drug in the 1940's in the 1950's. it seems the whole thing was done clumsy. help me with these pfizer and beyond tech headlines. i see that age 16, they seek vaccine approval for ages acting and above. jonathan: right now it is under emergency use authorization, along with j&j and moderna. after the crisis. and we're out of this emergency mode, the full approval essentially allows a vaccine provider, like pfizer/biontech to carry on with both shots. tom: got the right guest at the right time. andrew pekosz of johns hopkins school of public health. he is a virologist. i talked to the doctor from the children's hospital in boston 10 days ago, and he was heated that a vaccine applied to an adult is different to the vaccine applied to an other lessons whether they are 17 and down towards

12-year-old. described the challenge you have as a pro in a vaccine for someone that is 32 versus a vaccine for someone who is 15. dr. pekosz: much of the biology of the immune system is incredibly different and very much dependent upon stage. even simple factors such as dosing based on body mass have to be empirically determined. that is why you see these clinical trials focusing on children, breaking down the age groups to small and smaller groups. of adults were basically 17 and above, right? now we are going in age increments of four or five years or so because of the challenges that are produced by trying to move into those populations with the limited amount of data we have so far. so it is very important to get this right, because children represent a population that could really help us move toward

a herd immunity endpoint. the studies coming up next week will be important in terms of understanding the dosing and effect on those populations. lisa: if we get the 12-16-year-old guidelines next week, is expected, how quickly could we see kids start to get vaccinated, and how much does that accelerate the path to full immunity? dr. pekosz: you could see vaccination start almost immediately, because the vaccine right now is out there. we have been seeing the vaccine demand is starting to diminish a little bit, and if you look at the initial rollout of the vaccines, my guess is there will be a large bolus of individuals who are willing and wants to get the vaccines that will line up quickly. so i think the rollout initially will be very fast and very high. than it is really just going to be a question of sustaining it and getting it into a high percentage, run into similar

problems that we see now with the adult population. jonathan: what do you think the biggest issue is underpinning hesitancy at the moment? dr. pekosz: it is getting the information to people in a way that they are comfortable understanding it. from a scientific standpoint, i really am amazed at the wonderful data that is coming out about these vaccines almost on a weekly basis. the data is there. communicating effectively to populations is what's really important, and, of course, getting to the issue of equity and vaccines. finding the populations that don't have access to it, that haven't heard much about the benefits of the vaccine. getting to those populations will be a critical thing right now. lisa: what do you think of new york city's decision to advocate for vaccine tourism, that basically if people visit from other countries, they can get the vaccine and get first in line? dr. pekosz: more vaccinations are better.

everybody is trying to be a bit creative about how to do this. bringing someone into a country, vaccinating them, remember, the effect of the vaccine takes several weeks before you can actually get the benefits of that, so the timing of some of these things is important. and, again, we are allotted more than we have vaccinated, but it takes time for the vaccine to get you your production. that is critical to remember as we rollout these policies that may allow for greater travel or greater access for vaccines for people who are not residents. jonathan: amazing that what was taboo just two and a half months ago is now almost being discussed openly, dare i say encouraged, tom. vaccine tourism. you remember two and a half months ago, the head of canada's big investment fund, the pension fund had to resign because he had gone to the uae for a

vaccine? that was two and a half months ago. this story has moved quickly. tom: it has moved quickly. you were talking about your travels. we make jokes about it, but it wasn't funny. the answer is that we are on the cusp of getting back to the process of getting back to normal. what i detect is a massive inpatience. people of all walks of life, whatever their story. they are, like, let's go, let's go. jonathan: for the airlines too. brutal. debts are piling up. they want the corridor between london and new york to open up. where is the plan? lisa: yeah. where is the consistency and standards in terms of who is vaccinated. dr. pekosz was dancing around an interesting point, this question of, do we allow people here who could be infected? than we open up the core doors to india, brazil, south africa,

in order to allow people to get the vaccine? is that going to be acceptable? it is a serious question. jonathan: when he talked about other countries or other states. lisa: not sure what he was talking about. tom: do any the vaccine passport to go on 59th street? jon: know, tom. this is bloomberg. ♪

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♪ >> most forecast suggest at the end of this year, we will be better than we were projected to be before the pandemic. >> we basically rebooted the economy, turned it off and shut it back on, and it is coming with a lot of messy friction. >> we are seeing a demand shock the likes of which we have not seen since world war ii. >> the last thing in the world i really care about is that wages are going to explode. they are not. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: it is payrolls friday. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. equity futures up 0.2% on the s&p 500.