the data in august and september when we can say the reopening is behind. >> forecasts suggest that at the end of this year, we will be better than we were projected to be before the pandemic. >> the economy right now is experiencing a demand shock the likes of which we have not seen since world war ii. >> a lot of people have left the labor force. will they start to come back in? >> the last thing i care about is our wages going to explode, they are not. vonnie: -- jonathan: good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance." alongside tom keene, i am jonathan ferro. lisa abramowicz will be back next week. this payrolls monday, are we calling it payrolls monday? tom: it is payrolls monday.

just as important, you have got to get to retail sales friday. we have another friday coming up. jonathan: overwhelmingly, the consensus view united across wall street is we do not have a demand issue. it is a supply-side mystery. tom: i think it is a natural disaster we are all learning from. what a disaster that one million call was showing up under 300,000, carl weinberg are make us smarter. the u.k. coming out of it, jp morgan publishing friday it is a supply constraint discussion. jonathan: as if the last 12 months was not humbling enough. we have got to talk about that hat pipeline in the u.s. tom: james is at the morning joe this morning popping up crypto. all of that cyber is being

extremely important. it is not 2034. it is 2021, and it is real. jonathan: a promo for a different network. taylor: we don't -- tom: we don't care. everybody watches us, and they bounce around. we like that. jonathan: what a move we saw on friday. the break at 1.50 to the downside. tom: what is so important is the dollar weakness we sought friday was sustained with a vengeance. that is the global wall street news you need. tom: -- jonathan: the commodity story, let's just take a second. iron or futures up or minus 10%. we keep going. tom: jeff currie will be out on

digital with francine at the 5:00 hour. the idea that copper is the oil of 2002. it is like oil, it has a life of its own. it has massively different investment issues versus peak oil and the ability to bring on shale. there is no shale for this copper. jonathan: there is no shale. there is no dogecoin for this. that is a great elon musk impression. tom: i don't have a checkbook. jonathan: you should do s&l. we would all love that. tom: the only way i would get away with it. there is dr. weinberg. jonathan: let's start with payrolls monday. what explained that massive mess? carl: i think we were too optimistic. people saw the growth in demand and thought supply was going to grow. what do we do?

we look for alternative sources of stuff. part of it is bidding up prices of the stuff we have. going back to david hume, we are going to see an increase in imports. we are seeing an increase in imports in countries and its stimulus and monetary policy to bridge this gap. that is where we go. stuff becomes a little more expensive for a while, and after a while, prices go back down to where they were before. it is the reverse of what we saw in the euro. copper prices dropped 20% when the pandemic broke out. it did bring a dip in prices for a month or two, but we felt to our basis supply issue. we will solve our demand issue on the way up. jonathan: does the price of labor need to adjust? carl: in the interim, it does. i have heard this on your program several times.

i think julia said it last week. we went from 60 to zero in two months. that was hard in terms of a lot of adjustments to do. now we are trying to go from zero back to 60 or 70 or 80, and it takes a while to work the machine to get back to that kind of steam. for the moment, we will see upward pressure on wages. there are a lot of unemployed people out there. tom: carl, your acclaim goes way back even before lehman brothers, international currency movements. we are at a time where with the jump condition of renminbis strength, what is the unexpected? what is the expect the unexpected of weak u.s. dollar? carl: investing in currencies, you always expect the unexpected. we are looking at surprise, countries like canada that produce a lot of orders that are

going up in price, same thing with australia. i don't think we should be too surprised. we are seeing some stimulus in the economies that are benefiting. china in particular is benefiting because we go to them to make stuff for us. they are seeing very strong trade numbers. the trade numbers printed on friday for china for march, the biggest march export number. you want to look at the levels. china is winning in this trade readjustment and is benefiting from that. tom: if we see strong commodities, let's say we get the copper boom that jeff currie just told bloomberg about, how does that change the world for jerome powell? carl: the fed and central banks have said there are going to be booms in prices as we go back up again. the one that was widely

advertised was the oil price. they are very prepared. one time changes in the prices of commodities relative to the prices of everything else is not inflation. it is a relative price change. it makes us poor because after we buy that, we have less money to spend on other things. this is not 1971. we don't buy that much stuff that has commodities in it. i believe what we are experiencing now is the process of gearing up but not the process of gearing up inflation. we will live through that. i believe things will settle down once we get this machine back up to 60 miles per hour. jonathan: the notion that cpi increases that will prop up the target is more of a tail risk than likelihood.

you say nothing about this pandemic has made wages or prices rise sustainably. is the same true of the u.s. economy as well? carl: my question is i go to bed every night, what is different? when we come back from this economic event we have suffered, why should we come back in a different condition then we were when we started it? has anything during this time of the pandemic served to make demand weaker, or to make demand grow faster and prices grow more weekly? i cannot figure out why we should end up in a different place than where we started? with more debt and some people having traded up jobs in the interim and a smaller workforce and more productivity, but not a lot to argue for 2% to 5%

inflation. once we get above 2.5% and stay there for a while, that will be something to think about. jonathan: what do you make of the argument that this is not a normal recovery? this is unique? we are restarting the economy after a mandated shutdown, and we can snap back to where we were quickly, but policy has an emergency policy setting for a traditional recovery that could stay that way for a long time. what do you make of that? carl: we have never seen this before. there are a lot of things we do not know. among the things we do not know, getting back to the start of this conversation come we do not know how the labor market response when we go from zero to 60 in a couple of weeks. to say jobs are going to be one million on friday, that is a great gas. you don't have any empirical evidence or historical evidence to fall back on.

we are watching this machine startup. we are waiting to see what it does as it starts up. we don't know exactly the shape or the timing of how it is going to go through specific phases. it is interesting. i think we can overcome these supply shortages in a short time. tom: in my youth, i want to know what you think about cost push inflation in 2022? are we going back to the gloom of costs rising pushing inflation higher? carl: i don't believe that model is as relevant today. we just do not buy that much stuff. tom, did you by any copper this morning? did you use any copper this morning? did you use any iron ingots or steel bars? these kinds of commodities are 5% to 10% at most of the making

of anything. in making actual stuff, they are a fraction of our cpi. even if prices of these commodities go up a lot, we will get a tick of some 10th of a percent on cpi all over the world, but every time the cpi goes up is not inflation. just because cpi goes up does not mean we have inflation. we do not index wages to cpi so we do not get that automatic spool up. the economy is going to do what it is supposed to do, which is settle down to an ok great of growth -- rate of growth. jonathan: tom is very green. he walks to work. he did not use gasoline this morning. carl: i have an electric car, one of elon's.

i have an electric bicycle. jonathan: there you go. tom: carl weinberg, thank you. the killer thing is the idea that inflation is not this big media event. it is a process we are going through. jonathan: humility, the word of the day. we have to try and be humble. can we do that? tom: no. how did lisa get all those days off? jonathan: i think she is going to keep us humble for the next five days. yields 1.58 on 10s. tom: says john, lunch, five days a week. jonathan: transient, transitory. there you go. why are we in separate rooms? tom: i don't know. come and join me. jonathan: maybe i will. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪

>> u.s. infectious disease chief anthony fauci says no doubt the country has undercounted the number of coronavirus debts. he said a university of washington analysis says the true toll over 900,000 is more than he would have thought. the official number of covid debts in the u.s. is 581,000. officials from iran's central bank are directly involved in talks. iranian businesses guarantee they can work with global vendors. global news 24 hours a day, on air and quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.

i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> my friends on wall street,

and i have a lot of them, complaining about the fed's policies that are mucking up their trading strategies. i have zero sympathy. there are still 8 million to 10 million americans that want to be working. jonathan: we got some interesting responses from that quote. most people on wall street agree there is more work to be done in the labor market. where there is disagreement is whether $100 billion in qe every month makes a difference. tom: i don't think anybody knows. i think we are making it up as we go. you want to disagree with me, please. i thought jerome powell looked like a genius on friday. jonathan: tom, for that matter as well, and validated the stance of the republicans and democrats as well. that is where things get dangerous. taking that number friday and

puddling it into your biases. tom: we go to this week's retail sales report. we try to catch up on a monday. marty, extraordinary jobs report. let us move on from that. does it change the dynamics of fiscal policy in washington? >> it probably does not. everybody is scratching their heads as to why this supply-side problem unemployment is happening. it could be a fundamental issue in negotiations between republicans and the democrats. tom: you think the jobs report and the dynamics of our labor economy will be part of the infrastructure built? -- bill? >> it will be part of the discussion. the democrats are arguing this just shows the economy is far from being cured, and they need

this infrastructure spending. jonathan: childcare, huge issue. if schools are still shut, some people cannot go back to work. we saw that and the fema participation rate in friday's data. for the democrats, there is some data that backs of their thoughts. the republicans are just taking the top line number and saying we told you so. this is the problem that needs addressing. this is from ben sasse, senator from nebraska. the emergency unemployment insurance program is penalizing people for going back to work. the risk, whether that is validated by the data or not, they are already climbing onto it. would you be surprised if more states follow? >> i would not be surprised at all. it is true that those states generally are republican states who are saying no more emergency unemployment benefits, no thank

you. their thought is this will encourage people to go back to work. it remains to be seen if that is true. jonathan: this gets pretty dicey the next couple days going into that meeting in the white house. tom: they are going to sit down in the white house and deal with this, but the answer is 2022 creeps up on us. the president's all of a sudden, forget about the economics, forget about the bloomberg surveillance buzz, this is about we have to get elected in 2022. are the democrats that scared? marty: i think the democrats should be scared. they have narrow margins in the house, the narrowest margin in the senate. it is only going to take a couple of seats one way or the other, and it could be republican congress in 2022. that is joe biden's worst nightmare. jonathan: that is why these talks are different.

a couple weeks ago when republicans walked into the oval office, how many people took that seriously? how different is this moment compared to several months back? marty: i think it is different. joe biden cast himself as the ultimate conciliator, the person who can bring people together. this meeting on wednesday is going to show whether that is true or not and whether any kind of compromise is possible. tom: what did you take out of the sunday talk shows? everybody was all over the place. we have to coalesce on the calendar around voting rights in the south and this and that and the other thing to get to the primary season of the 2020 elections. is there a closing gap? marty: i think everybody is looking around.

the disarray, -- tom: is it disarray? is it true disarray, or is it that the liz cheney moderates are such a small group? marty: they seem to be a small group, the cheney's, the romney's, and we will see whether insurgents backed by donald trump will actually win the day. it will be interesting during the primaries. jonathan: before we leave, we will catch up with ian bremmer. one of the big stories across this country, what has happened with the colonial pipeline. this has a huge geopolitical risk to it, hacking, cyber warfare. what is the response in d.c.? marty: it struck me that they were caught off guard and hastily put together a task force to deal with it. in all of the trillion dollar

infrastructure spending, nothing really was put in for cybersecurity. a lot of people are saying is a big mistake. marty schenker, joining us. tom, a big mistake. no doubt, that is going to come up this wednesday. if you want to do infrastructure spending, let's talk about the things that are playing out before our eyes at the moment. tom: has there been any identifiable evidence of some form of compromise between the groups? jonathan: that is why it is so import. i think the pressure is more on the president than anyone else in the room. he told us he can unite congress. now he has got to unite congress. he has got to get more done before the midterms next year. tom: in the middle of may, i see where they are going to focus in on the politics at hand. i have to get back to the markets. you mentioned at the top of

surveillance on radio and tv, dow futures up and up. jonathan: it is fair to say i did not say that. you just did. record high in europe as well. in the bond market, it has been amazing to see that huge move. yields are lower off the back of that payroll report. this is not about demand. something else is going on. just the moves in commodities this morning have been phenomenal once again. tom: the five-year real yield, real yield is on friday, i cannot remember when. jonathan: it is at 1:00. are you done? tom: george writes about it. forget about this 10-year nominal. look at the five-year real yield. jonathan: you have been on top of that. why isn't it supporting the nasdaq more? tom: that is a good question.

i take your point. dow futures up 92. jonathan: looking forward to that conversation in five minutes. alongside tom keene, i am jonathan ferro. lee set the week off. she's skiing. tom: really? jonathan: i have no idea. ♪

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jonathan: from new york city, good morning. here is the price action this monday morning. all time high on the s&p 500. the nasdaq 100 down about .33%. the job's number came out. what happened at treasuries? huge bid, aggressively lower. yields are unchanged on the day. why? i think people reflected on that number quickly and believe there is no demand issue. inconsistent with the price action elsewhere. your rally in the commodity market, up 8%. what you see at the top is an 8% move in iron or futures in singapore.

that move was 10% at one point early this morning. we are on a watch in london. tom: what a move. it puts us in the perspective, the velocity from 10,000 to 10,000 has been days. jonathan: jeff currie pointing something out on the iron ore side. demand in china has not been as robust as you would expect. we are going to talk about a super cycle. he is also talking about a pullback in supply. what is happening with steel because of this environmental transition? we are talking about this huge environmental transition on top of a demand boom. the traditional cyclical read you might get from copper, given the political environment we are in at the moment. tom: the fear message of 2021

being different from 2002. that has always been a consistent theme. ian bremmer of eurasia group. his books are too many to mention. we welcome dr. bremmer this morning as we speak of every nation for itself. once again, food dynamics, rice in cambodia really matters. rice in america less so. what is the food dynamic that you observe in this commodity left? -- lift? ian: it tells me the gap between rich and poor countries in the rebound of the pandemic has been so greatly different. you already have, before the pandemic, a quarter of everyone in yemen being food stressed.

in sudan, those numbers are similar. those numbers are doubling on the back of the pandemic. one of the most disheartening statistics that was in direct from the pandemic was the fact that we had increased about 50 million people of extreme poor people around the world. the first time that number has gone up in well over generations, 40 years. that means food insecurity. you are going to see that play out in so many countries where prices have gone up where government does not have any capacity to provide support. tom: a fantastic essay about 10 days ago about the collapse of india. do you look at their horrific news from india being politically destabilizing for the region? ian: it is not destabilizing

inside india. india's prime minister despite having badly handled the last wave of this crisis, the popularity basis he had coming in was higher than any other major leader. he has a long way to go before you talk about any instability. domestic opposition would have a long way to go before they could challenge. there is no question that when you see the india variant spreading as much as it is across south east asia and the fact that india has been the largest producers of vaccines around the world, and now they have massive shortages inside their own country, they have had to suspend exports. most of that export was going to other countries in the region. this is now where the epicenter

of the coronavirus crisis is. it is going to be the region that has the least capacity to fight it. the india basin, the fact that the mrna vaccines, i saw extremely disturbing news from the seychelles. they have had more vaccine rollout than any other country in the world for a small publishing. they now have more human to human spread per capita than india. that is astonishing because most of the vaccines are coming from china, and they do not have the efficacy to stop the spread. huge problem for the developing world is not about modernity and pfizer. i am quite worried about what this is going to look like.

jonathan: how the west can help. that is the question. the answer is sewing division between the europe and u.s. -- between the u.s. and europe. you have europe saying we don't think that is going to help. germany is looking at the u.s. for hoarding vaccines and not exporting them. what did you make of the u.s. decision last week to move forward without bringing the allies on board? ian: the german response that this is not the way to provide health. we are talking not just weeks or months. we are talking a year or more to get the kind of manufacturing capacity that would be aligned. it is important symbolically with a lot of progressives in the democratic party, but this is not going to move the needle

for the problems we just talked about. the big issue is here is the biden administration trying to do the right thing and not coordinating with allies. that is the mistake. it is just like the announcement to leave afghanistan. when your allies are absolutely critical, you should not be in a position where the german government is caught blindsided by you saying you are going to suspend ip protection. in terms of this pandemic, we need to be talking in advance of our announcements with the key allies. it is such an easy thing to do. the biden team should be good at this. jonathan: why aren't they? ian: i think these are experienced men and women who have been around on policy establishments for decades. for them, multilateral is him means the u.s. does the right thing, and other allies go along

with us. it does not mean we might actually be wrong or have to compromise because we have been in a position of such strength and because the alliance itself was so much more cohesive. that is not as true today. part of that is four years of trump administration, but part of it is europe is moving in a different direction. their representative democracy is different from that of the u.s. tom: your top risks of 2020 one, you have been out front saying we have to pay attention -- of 2021, you have been out front saying we have to pay attention to cyber. give us an update on the tipping point you see. ian: the funny thing is i don't think the tipping point is between the u.s. and russia or the u.s. and china because there is a level of deterrence in

cyberattacks between those countries. we do espionage against them. they do espionage against us. we use the data in ways that are useful. we do not break things. we do not destroy ccal infrastructure. we do take actions that could precipitate a kinetic response. unlike nukes, where you had that nuclear balance, but those were the only countries that have that capacity in the cold war, in the case of cyber, we stopped the iranians from developing nukes. we have not stop them from developing some of the world's most capable offensive cyber capabilities. incredibly sophisticated cyber capacity to destroy things. we see that with the smash and grab on the data for this critical pipeline over the weekend and also in the

ransomware attacks. we do not have cyber defenses to deal with this. i was particularly worried they were going to shut down hospitals in the middle of vaccine rollout. they were clearly capable of doing these criminal networks. thankfully, they did not. jonathan: good to catch up as always. ian bremmer, eurasia group president and founder. we are talking about 2.5 million barrels of fuel a day running through that pipeline. it is a must 40% of fuel demand in this country. on the east coast provided by that pipeline. tom: what it comes down to is the look at price on the bloomberg. we did see a lift in oil and a lift in key gasoline as well.

another chart i am looking at, and this goes to the real yield. this is the belly of the curve, the five-year inflation-adjusted yield. for those of you on radio, it has been a straight line down to a massive and new negative yield. it speaks volumes. jonathan: the nominal has been stable with the exception of friday. inflation expectations picking up, real yield even lower. every story we have been discussing, the colonial pipeline, the labor market, we are talking about a supply-side response. the way to address the issue and a time of crisis. tom: the idea of the supply versus the demand for labor, and mike mckee loves the jolt survey. that will be fascinating. if you want a reaffirmation of 10% gdp, we got regional sales on friday. jonathan: later in the program.

i'm bringing that chart. we are good to talk about the employment to population ratio and bring that chart to the table. what is in store for "bloomberg surveillance" for the next couple of hours? tom: when do we talk about the dodgers losing five series and around? jonathan: we can do that now. what about the red sox? tom: they are getting it done. jonathan: do we discussed the yankees? tom: the yankees are putting it on. they started weak.i swear the players want to live on the west coast, san francisco, l.a., seattle. jonathan: live in madrid. tom: i did not know that. how about those? vonnie: -- jonathan: how about them. coming up, we are over time. this is bloomberg. ♪ tom: i like dogecoin.

i really like doge. ritika: crude oil and gasoline rose after a cyberattack put the largest oil pipeline in the u.s. out of action. colonial pipeline still has not come up with a timeline for restarting operations. suppliers are worried there could be a shortage of gasoline and diesel across the eastern u.s. in jerusalem, weeks of violence threatened to escalate. palestinians clashed with israeli police, and at least 50 palestinians were hospitalized. israel is marking the anniversary of the day in 1967 it captured the eastern section from jordan. dogecoin has now been used to pay for a lunar satellite launch. spacex will embark on a journey to the moon next year carrying a

satellite that has been paid for in dogecoin. no word on what that satellite cost. global news 24 hours a day, on air and quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the cdc has been saying all along that it is likely we are

undercounting. the model says a significant amount, 900,000, a bit more than i would have thought the undercounting was. sometimes the models are right online, sometimes they are off. there is no doubt that we are and have been undercounting. jonathan: dr. fauci it speaking to nbc over the weekend. good morning. alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro. here is the price action. all-time high for the s&p 500. we advance another 0.1% on the s&p 500. the dollar weaker through much of g10. the aussie advancing on the back of a huge move in the commodity market. iron ore futures surging. copper, that rally use, record-breaking rally. wti, crude is up 1.5%. tom: another easy one is loony,

dollar canada, 1.24. we had a stronger canada at 1.20 earlier this morning. we are scrupulous about corrections. a viewer, listener emails in, and he makes clear, don't forget about the mats. jonathan: five-game winning streak. tom: you know, what he is doing is he is pals with steve cohen and trying to become first base coach. jonathan: what does that mean? tom: you go out and stand in the field, i can see l.a. rian standing in the field at first base. it is not like it is a token job title for someone, but i can see el-arhian. jonathan: you are saying that is a token job? tom: trust me, he would take it.

thank you for watching and listening this morning. this is an important conversation. on this monday, we look at america. joshua sharfstein joins from johns hopkins bloomberg school of public health. i want to get back to first principles in america, which is the clumsiness of being partially vaccinated. how do we prosecute may, june, and july partially vaccinated? what is your advice? >> one very important strategy is to keep vaccinating to switch from large stadiums to smaller venues, to keep pushing the rock up the hill so we get more and more people vaccinated. what can we do for individuals? tom: do we not wear a mask?

do we berate people who have not been vaccinated? what do we do about airlines? there seems to be a slew of items as we are partially vaccinated. >> you are right. there is a lot of virus out there. there are still 40,000 cases per day in the u.s. we can get that number weighed down with greater numbers of people vaccinated. that leads to a lot of judgment calls in these different areas. myself, i do not wear a mask outside, but i will wear one if i am going inside. i will hang out with my parents without a mask because we are all vaccinated. i am a little nervous if i am around a lot of people, and i do not know their vaccination status. that will change as more people are vaccinated in the number of cases go down. everyone is going to have to make their own decision. summer camps are probably going to be in a much better position if they can do testing for kids

before they get there. until we get the numbers down, we are going to be in virus purgatory. jonathan: you said everyone has to make their own decision. we all have to face these ridiculous requirements when we got inside a restaurant to eat. we sit down, we converse, and we take our mask off. when you stand up and go to the restroom, you have to put the mask on. it seems as if people when they walk into the restaurant, covid-19 knows it better go away. don't you find these restrictions ridiculous? >> i think it is a good idea to try to rationalize these. in a lot of places, eating indoors at a bar or restaurant is not the safest thing at all. it could easily lead to another

super-spreader event. we are struggling a little bit with our anxiety about having people show they are vaccinated. hopefully, that will dissipate, and we will have more clear rules which might look like people who are vaccinated can go to restaurants without a problem, and other people have to put up with either using their judgment not to go, which i might recommend, or having different requirements. jonathan: let's talk about some of the numbers on the vaccine front. wisconsin officials have asked for just 8% of the 162,000 doses the federal government set aside for the state the week. in iowa, officials asked for just 29% of allocated doses. in illinois, the state is planning to ask for just 9% of allocated doses for everywhere except chicago. what is going on? >> at some point we are going to

get to the moment when excess demand is being met, and we are switching from trying to capture the excess demand to trying to help people make a decision to be vaccinated. in a lot of places, that is the point we are at. that means we are not going to be filling large stadiums anymore with people getting vaccinated. that does not mean we should be throwing up our hands and deciding we are never going to reach herd immunity, and there is nothing more to be done. there is so much more to be done , particularly in reaching out to people, answering their questions, getting there vaccine conveniently. there are so many opportunities to continue vaccinating. we have to sustain that idea. it is not just about whether someone wakes up in the morning and if they are going to climb a mountain and cap vaccinated, it is if they go to the doctor, and the vaccine is there for them. jonathan: joshua sharfstein.

just a headline, a $10,000 appreciation bonus. that's coming from some reporting early this morning. ubs paying a $40,000 one-time bonus to the banking analyst. tom: there is no question about this, i. anecdotally -- i hear it anecdotally, labor has the upper hand for the first time in ages. it is just to keep the bodies there. we are going to see a lot more of this. jonathan: are we going to see it in next month's payrolls report? tom: i think it is an elite thing. i'm not sure if it is in next month's payrolls report. i will leave that to the market economists. i would suggest that inequality in the fight for the haves to get labor. jonathan: coming up, looking

forward to that debate and conversation in around 10 minutes time. equity futures unchanged on the s&p 500. tom: the hour without lisa. jonathan: will we get by? tom: i think doge. ♪

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♪ >> it's been an enormous buildup of savings, and there's a lot of pent-up demand, so i think you will see really strong growth. >> we should all recognize that the economy is right now experiencing a launch up the likes of which we have not seen since world war ii. >> not one single report is going to term in the fed's change or projections. >> we don't want to start tightening up monetary policy and then find out later, when you try to battle inflation for so long, you jumped the gun. >> it is really the data not right now, but in august, september when we can say the reopening is behind us. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: it is payrolls monday. for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio.