♪ >> people are way too optimistic. i think people saw demand and said supply -- and it didn't. >> it could be a very wild summer. >> not one single to port -- single report is going to change the fed projections. >> you don't want to start tightening monetary policy and then find out later that when you try to battle inflation for so long, you jumped the gun. >> the data is important, but it is the data in august, september which we can say the reopening is behind us. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene,

jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: did morning, everyone -- good morning, everyone. a simulcast on a monday that is not normal. abramowicz off. it is the abramowicz sabbatical. this morning is not boring. jonathan: anything but. we had this stories from payrolls friday into payrolls monday. we had robust demand. can we meet it with supply? it is a theme that keeps coming back to us again and again, and the solution to that theme in various parts in the labor market, will we deliver higher wages to fix that cap? -- fix that gap? tom: it is the heart of the story off of the great miss. i got to go to litmus paper.

renminbi stronger. dxy breaking down. stephen -- steve and lender -- steve englander writing about it. sterling launches. i wonder if ferro will move back to london. jonathan: the ultimate trade is getting paid in sterling and change get back to dollars and living here. the thing that i am focused on, and i know you are, too, 10 your real yields -94 basis points right now. they come in again. tom: the 10 year yield is what we usually quote. more obscure is the five-year inflation-adjusted yield. that breaks down to new weakness, a greater negative yield. jonathan: do you think that is biting into the dollar this morning? tom: yes, i think it is part of the move. but explain right now to radio and tv the short yield market. we are going to go into the data check right now. explain the short yield market

versus the long yield market. jonathan: the kids is this you -- the consensus view is that we don't have a demand problem. i think reflecting that story, the two-year to set their. even came in -- the two-year just sat there. even came in a little bit. that is the idea that the fed is not going to go anywhere for a long time, and the recent data validates that. chairman powell publicly feeling pretty good about himself after payrolls on friday. tom: we have data this week. to me, inflation data wednesday is trumped by the retail data on friday. jonathan: and we look at that month on month, so there's going to be some real deceleration from the boom we saw in the previous one. tom: matt brill with us, invesco senior portfolio manager, head of u.s. investment grade. investment grade to corporate stuff out there. the whole thing has been a search for cash. record low yields, issue, issue, issue.

the paper has finally stopped, hasn't it? matt: good morning. the party on the issuance side has stopped a little bit. but the party on the demand side is still there. what we are seeing is inflows coming in from the overseas hedging costs are low, and as the fed stays low on interest rates, that is going to continue to keep hedging costs very cheap. that is not going anywhere. we are also seeing overall, the fed being accommodative. that completely reinforces friday's number. that is good for risk assets, good for investment grade credit. tom: it is a different story, but in 2006, precrisis, people were looking for itty-bitty basis point improvements to justify their thinking where they're need. are we back to that silliness? matt: i would say on the demand side, we are getting close to that, where individuals are

reaching more and more for yield. the good thing we are not seeing that we saw back into thousand 6, 2 thousand seven is corporations doing silly things, reaching for additional leverage in order to reduce there's -- in order to juice their stock prices. fundamentals are a lot better, but i do have some concerns that investors overall are beginning to below old -- beginning to be lulled to sleep. jonathan: a lot of the debt coming to market is for refinancing. we have seen the credit rally. but when you talk about ccc's, the ccc credit at one point last week was yielding 5.70%, five .70%. if you've got to go all the way down the spectrum of credit quality to pick out 6% in ccc's in america, does that make you nervous? matt: a little bit. there are certainly individual credits that have a good security. you talk about ccc's, but in a

year they are likely to be a single b. generally, that is not the area we like right now. what we like is double b's. the total return looks pretty good because as you go from bb to bbb, you get upgraded and the larger buyer base can now start to buy you. your 4% yield goes to 3%, so it goes from low to lower, but you get that impacted total return, so i think you can make more in bb's then you can make in ccc's right now. jonathan: just getting information on a new deal, and amazon offering, multi-tranche. a big bond offering coming to market. tom, your thoughts on this as it crosses the terminal, kicking off a u.s. bond offering innate parts? tom: team "surveillance" once again nails it with the right guest at the right time. goldman sachs making really clear that these people are investment juggernauts. what are they going to do with

the new money that they are going to pay nearly zero yield on? matt: we are hoping it will be more than what they are going to use for it, essentially they are going to use it to drive prices lower. they are going to be using it to have less wages, have less employees, really invest in infrastructure, but at the end of the day, jeff bezos told you in the past, there's two cans of companies, those that want to raise prices and those that want to lower it. what amazon will be doing with this money is everything they can to be deflationary. that is the environment we have to push and pull right now. you have the deflationary side of things, and the inflationary side of things where you can't hire enough people. tom: i don't want to start any rumors, but possibly they are bringing in the money to establish a dividend to do a huge stop split -- huge stock

split. jonathan: i think that is a little speculative, tom. [laughter] a question lisa would ask, these companies coming to market, the banks come the amazons of this world, they need the money. why do they come to market? matt: they don't really need the money. they have huge cash balances and most of these situations. but the reality is they can borrow for cheap. the way they look at it is they can grow into this leverage. if you are able to borrow for reasonably cheap and then you are able to get the operating leverage to go with it, it results in a lot of earnings, and you end up with a lower debt to gdp ratio. from that standpoint, there's a debt to cash flow at the company. from that standpoint, it is very positive for them, and they can do it for pretty cheap. tom: this is important. this is off of robert schiffman? wonderful work at -- of robert schiffman's wonderful work at bloomberg intelligence. $100 billion in debt already at amazon. tons of free cash flow.

to take their debt mix and extend the timeline, so-called extend the duration, and on a micro basis lower the yield while they do that, is that the exercise? matt: that's right. schiffman does a great job. he has been spot on on this space. he's talking about whether facebook will come out and borrow for so cheap, and they still have such an advantage versus anybody lower than them, where they can borrow massive amounts of money and it keeps them ahead of the game. that is what they are doing, investing rather than resting on their laurels, which is great to see for everybody. jonathan: let's be clear about that, that team helps me, too. tom: they've never helped me. [laughter] jonathan: $2.25 billion of the debt at amazon matures into next year. we talked about why a company would issue this debt. can you help us understand why someone like you might want to buy it? keeping you out of trouble with

compliance, not saying you are going to buy it. just from your perspective, a big tech firm, 40 year maturity, why would you want to buy that piece? matt: the mindset is always what is the insurance company doing, what are those incremental dollars looking for. they need to hedge long-term liabilities with cash flow. i don't know if amazon is going to be around in 30 or 40 years. it is really hard to brick outside of five years, and you get a much steeper curve. if you look at the credit spread versus the 30 year and the 10 year, you are getting a lot more yield, and right now, increment a yield is the name of the game. tom: i just saw the 40 year piece is 1.15% over the equivalent treasury. you move the decimal point over. if you discount that back for any kind of inflation, basically amazon is getting money for nothing, right? [laughter]

matt: yeah, the real rate of return for them is probably very low. i don't even think amazon looks at it in terms of inflation. they just look at how fast they can grow, and amazon is going to grow a lot greater than 3%. jonathan: well said. good to catch up. so we will have a two year piece, a three year piece. they are kicking off that debt sale. you mentioned the initial price target may be of the 40 year for these. the two-year, 30 basis points plus. tom: our team "surveillance books a guy like -- our team "surveillance" books a guy like brill when this news breaks. jonathan: wasn't that brilliant? tom: you wonder why amazon and these others aren't going to get to a aaa rating. jonathan: when you have a tech firm issuing very long term debt, 40 years to come, what does tech look like? what does the world look like in

40 years? tom: somebody is going to be there to buy it. which sovereign wealth fund is going to load the boat? jonathan: we will see the numbers, that's for sure. amrita sen of energy aspects joining us shortly on the oil market, on the pipeline shut down, and all of the above. $65 $.60 on wti. equities at all-time highs. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. there is still no timeline for restarting a giant fuel pipeline in the u.s. knocked out by a cyberattack. the colonial pipeline facility is a critical source of supply for the new york region. fuel supplies are growing increasingly nervous about the possibility of gasoline and diesel shortages in the eastern u.s. no word on who is was possible. u.s. infectious diseases chief anthony fouts he says there is no doubt the number -- anthony

fauci says there is no doubt the number of coronavirus deaths has been undercounted, but says the total of 900,000 is a bit more than he would've thought. the official number is 581,000. prime minister boris johnson confirmed that the next stage of lockdown easing in england will go ahead on may 17 as planned. people will be allowed to stay overnight with friends or relations, and indoor hospitality will be reopened. the government said international travel will also reopen again. officials from iran's central bank are directly involved in the talks. iranian businesses want guarantees they can work with global lenders. credit card companies are bringing back those huge point offers. a parent can express -- american express is out with one of the biggest for some new applicants for its platinum card. banks pulled back after the pandemic because they were

afraid they would have to eat a bunch of credit card losses. now they want to be ready when people start traveling again. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i ritika gupta. this -- i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> if you recall, commodities were stuck in this consolidation

period from mid-march through about mid april, all of that creating a stagnant level of oil and commodity demand. now, because of that seasonal economy coming back up again, that level is shifting back. we are largely -- we are likely to see the largest level of oil demand between now and july. jonathan: that is jeff currie of goldman sachs, joining the "bloomberg surveillance" early team this morning. alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro. all-time highs on the s&p. euro-dollar a snooze, $1.2167. cable through $1.41. a really robust move in the commodity market over the last several months. this morning though, different. crude right now, $65 $.51, up 0.9% on wti. tom: it is not a normal monday

after the jobs report. we knew that wouldn't be because of the economics debate over the labor economy, but just to see renminbi come in so strong, was a strong chinese yuan just as one example, you make note of that. jonathan: and this offering coming out of amazon, a big deal. they kick that off right now. tom: we will have much more on that. robert schiffman going back and forth with us on bloomberg intelligence. we thank him for that. right now on oil, with a global view on what we witnessed with cyberattacks in the u.s., amrita sen joins us. as you look at the distribution of hydrocarbons worldwide, how vulnerable are they to a cyberattack? amrita: great question. i would say pretty much everywhere. more and more, everybody is.

the colonial pipeline is a great example. but look at the middle east. there were elements of cyberattacks involved in that, and even more recently within the middle east, you do get a lot of infrastructure, not necessarily disruptions, but targets. think that is just the new normal. there are more companies spending on this. it will just get higher from here because the landscape has completely changed. tom: in malaysia they are doing a 24 mile, 30 mile key pipeline having to do with the distribution i believe up the west coast of malaysia. how many spots you perceive to be out there at the colonial pipeline worldwide? is it 10 other hotspots, or is it hundreds? amrita: it is going to be hundreds because if you are really going down that route, you're talking about huge

distribution pipeline networks within china, within india, even europe. jonathan: looking more broadly, when we talk to anyone in the commodity market right now, they are not concerned about this colonial pipeline shut down. there is just a belief that we will adjust, it will come back online and we will get back to normal. any aspect of the distribution, the transportation of energy that you would be concerned about? amrita: not right now, and not the scale at which this attack has happened. i do agree with what you just said, i think the pipeline and generally everything should be back up and running in three to five days, but never say never. this is definitely unprecedented at this scale at which is it -- at which it is happening, so it will require coordination from several government bodies, and that could take time. natural gas as well, let's not

forget, they would probably tighten up what they can do to protect their net -- their network going forward. jonathan: we have talked a ton about supply. let's talk about it a bit more. out of iran, can we open things up a bit more? what do negotiations look like? if you have said -- if you had said 12 to eight months -- 12 to 18 months ago we would have a president biden, you have said we would loosen things up with around. have we? amrita: we have always expected some kind of a breakthrough in april or may, and then sanctions by july. they are progressing probably a bit slower than we have been expecting. no major changes, but everybody is expecting a deal in the coming weeks, and then sanctions relief over q3. but if there isn't a deal before elections next month, that is the thing to watch out for because then it could get dragged on, and then the deal

becomes the 2022 story. i don't think that is in the price at all. tom: what is the link that you see between oil as a huge weighting of crb or the bloomberg commodity index with all of the other commodities? they don't trade in lockstep, do they? amrita: not at all. when you see s&p of record highs, but if you look at metals, market metals are soaring. oil has been a very strong performer this year, but still hasn't been as strong as some of the other commodities. part of that is because transportation was the worst hit during covid. it is coming back, but it is not fully back yet. there's also so much talk around working from home, how much are we going to lose permanently from oil demand. i will say all of the data we are getting right now, personal incomes are back to pre-covered levels in many parts of the world. -- pre-covid levels in many parts of the world. i think people are going to

spend, and he bounced back in oil demand is going to be said if it can lay more than people are expecting. jonathan: that is the line jeff currie of goldman is pushing, too. and read a of any three aspects -- amrita sen of energy aspects. thank you. they go on to say, "it is often better to travel than arrive from an investment perspective. we think it is better to be more selective and a tad more defensive." tom: i would say on this monday after jobs there's 14 opinions out there. the bulls reaffirm, the bears reaffirm. as we heard from our guest an hour ago, it is going to be a lot of fun the summer. jonathan: i agree. the line from morgan stanley was execution risk. going into the data, exit cushion risk. i think we sought -- the data, execution risk. i think we saw that in a lot of places, and we saw it on the

data friday, too. tom: how do you recalibrate your gdp guess? the morgan stanley call is boom gdp, then it gets slow somewhat quickly. amrita pushed against that. jonathan: i don't think demand is the question. it is executing the supply side of the story that gets a little trickier. tom: fair. jonathan: there's a seasonal factor in the friday point as well. it is confusing. the whole data point was. we can move on from that. but most people assume it is an example that we have some execution risk here. one million jobs, that's real people. 1.5 million, 2 million people, the hole we need to fill, it is real people. tom: i went to the economic policy institute. i know some wonderful people there. it's 8 million jobs, and if you extrapolate what growth would have been february pre-pandemic,

maybe it is as many as 10 million jobs. and as you say, those are real people. jonathan: we approach 4229, through that now i'm up about 0.2%, approaching 4230 on the s&p 500. tom keene, jonathan ferro. lisa back monday. this is bloomberg. ♪

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jonathan: this is "bloomberg surveillance." reflecting on the line out of morgan stanley. "dreaming of reopening is easier than doing it." on the s&p we advance almost five points. the turnaround in this market is unreal. think of the numbers we are talking about. not to be desensitized by this. we are having a discussion of 11,000 on copper. 4230 on the s&p 500. in november we were looking at the mid threes. anything north of 4000 was bullish. here we are at 3230. tom: we celebrate dow 35,000 this week. it means the bulls have to recalibrate. they can take a victory lap.

you did not just extrapolate forward. you have to think about where you go year end 2021. jonathan: i have my dow cap on you. tom: is a signpost. it is around number. where does the vix go? jonathan: some evidence of the inability to execute, not just in the earnings but also the payrolls print on friday. in the bond market, you saw how we push the jobs market data through the bond market. lower. 1.46. then we unwound it quickly. right now 1.6719. we do not have a demand problem. my view is the consensus view we are working our way through the demand shock. what we did not work out was what was holding back supply. the final chart. it is the jobs data. we will get more data on this tomorrow.

job openings in america are searching. the unknown -- are surging. the unknown is how we fill the gap. tom: breaking out to new highs off of where we were a few years ago. lots of openings. jonathan: the issue on friday, lots of openings, lots of demand. are the people going to show up? tom: they will. right now it is a joy to talk conservative theory with diana furchgott-roth. trump administration department of transportation. more than that, truly one of our voices on conservative thought and economic thought across america back to the presidency of ronald reagan. thrilled to have you with us this morning. what does conservative thought do after trump? how does conservative thought recalibrate after the president's four years?

diana: i do not think it is conservative thought, but i think if anyone were told you would earn $15 an hour for staying home you would be more likely to stay home then go out to work. that is why arkansas, montana, south carolina announced they are cutting back on expanded benefits for unemployment insurance because people are staying home rather than going out to work. it is noteworthy when construction was booming, there were zero jobs created in construction last month. tom: president biden takes a middle ground between fractious democrats and republicans recalibrating for 2022. can president biden find a middle ground to bring the two parties together or do you assume warfare to 2024? diana: so far president biden

has listened more to his left wing, the bernie sanders weighing. i do not know what he has -- what he is going to do in the future but so far he is not wanted to negotiate or compromise republicans. we will see what he has to do in the future. i do not have any information. tom: i want to make clear, you've been a consistent theorist for conservatives for 20 to 30 years. we have nick burns who handles state department duties for president biden saying there is a republican set of individuals trying to reset after trump and they are struggling. witness liz cheney of wyoming. how does the more traditional republican party reset after the era of trump? diana: i am an economist. i'm not a political scientist. all i can say is point the empirical evidence. in north carolina in 2013, when

it cut unemployment benefits it created far more jobs than the surrounding states. we need to look at the supply-side phenomenon that are keeping things down. jonathan: let's talk about the little bit more. what you think was behind the drop of female participation in friday's report? diana: it is obvious that when children have to be home from school, someone in the family has to be with them. this past year it has fallen on the moms. i do not know how they do it. i could never have managed to work with my six-year-old at home. it is difficult to work with your children home. jonathan: with that in mind, is it a mistake to pull back on unemployment insurance? diana: we need to open the school so that children can go back to school, go back to summer camp, take up some of these masked mandates for people who are vaccinated and get the kids back to school. show the moms they can keep going back to work with the

confidence their children will be able to be in school and in summer camp. jonathan: is that with the opposition be? not pulling back unemployment insurance and the additional benefits. before we get there, we need to reopen the schools and do something about childcare to mark is that were there were the -- isn't that where the emphasis should be? diana: it does not help giving women more unemployment insurance benefits if their kids are at home and they cannot get back to their jobs. tom: this is critical. you admit to six children. i was not as dumb as you but i came awfully close. you said to one of your children, be good. i have never been -- this is not funny. what is our solution of the national embarrassment on childcare? do you advocate what we see in the netherlands? you advocate what we see in

france? diana: it is not like we have done that great job of kindergarten through 12th grade that we want to extended up through community college and down through prekindergarten. this is up to each individual state to decide. it is up to each individual state to decide what to do. women's labor force participation was high in 2019 when there was not federally pay childcare. there was document he colleges. unemployment rates were the lowest for minorities and for women. tom: are you suggesting -- you're falling back on a states rights issue. i understand that. are you telling me george bush senior or ronald reagan would not say there is a federal solution to the horrific behind that is american childcare? diana: i would not say american childcare is horrific.

there are many childcare providers and we can see in january and february 2020 that women were doing great. we need to go back to that time. 3.5% unemployment rate. jonathan: we need to get that back very quickly. we have to leave it there. diana furchgott-roth of george washington university. the debate starts with the economics but ends up in a political one. it is of little conversation in washington cured tom: it comes -- in washington. tom: it comes down to states rights versus a federal solution. republicans, especially entranced conservative republicans are looking at a states rights solution. all i know is every anecdotal evidence i have is women cannot go back because they do not have childcare. jonathan: cloud care issues. we saw that in the data on front desk childcare issues. we saw that in the data --

childcare issues. we saw that in the data on friday. it is the same thing. demands are not a problem. jobs openings are not a problem. tom: just out with headlines from chicago. we will get there. maybe you will be slower. i will go back to the reality of inflation. too many telling us inflation does not matter. all the fancy people are telling me inflation does not matter. it will become a massive political issue based on what i see on the bloomberg screen. jonathan: it becomes more interesting on the labor side if we get away from one-time sign-on bonuses and start talking about higher wages. the solution to the labor shortages, was it higher prices? if you think it is about childcare, i do not think higher prices solve that. tom: we will see on wage inflation. which inflation statistic matters wednesday?

to meet as the atlanta sticky inflation number which is creeping up. jonathan: it depends on what your perspective is. the federal reserve is looking at the ppe and the federal reserve is standing by this philosophy this is a one-off price gain brought about by the reopening of the economy, and over the course of the year the supply-side will wear things out. they will not reassess that point until the end of the year. tom: i am going to go back to conor lamb. what we are dealing with in economics, finance, and investment goes into the politics. i would suggest that over the weekend we became more acute to the wednesday meeting about the politics for 18 months. jonathan: everybody you in washington, d.c. says the same thing, the pressure is more on the president than the republicans. tom: once again, the guy from

england has said it cured it is well said -- has said it. it is well set. -- well said. jonathan: well said. tom: i want to talk about the dow up 120. jonathan: let's talk about amazon offering that eight par offering. you mentioned that earlier on this morning. some of the reporting from monte smith and the team at bloomberg news. amazon coming to market. these yields will be so low. tom: they did whole foods and now another tranche after that. what are they going to do? are they going to buy chewy? jonathan: you want them to buy chewy? you want them to boo -- you want them to do a stock split? coming up jean boivin.

tom: formerly with the bank of canada. he is very good. jonathan: tom keene and jonathan ferro. lisa abramowicz taking a week off. tom: i thought she was coming back monday. jonathan: next monday. this is bloomberg. tom: it was transitory. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. crude oil and gasoline prices rose after cyberattack of the largest oil pipeline in the u.s.. clonal pipeline has not come up with -- colonial pipeline has not come up with a timeline for restarting operations. concerned there could be a shortage of gasoline and diesel across the u.s. president biden is preparing for his first face-to-face meeting with mitch mcconnell and kevin mccarthy. wednesday meeting comes as

republicans are ramping up their opposition to the president dr. trillion dollar economic land. there is not much expectation for a breakthrough. last week mcconnell said he is 100% focused on blocking joe biden's agenda. in jerusalem weeks of violence threatened to escalate on the day israel celebrates control over the contested city. palestinians clashed with israeli police, and at least 50 palestinians were hospitalized. israel is marking the anniversary of the day in 1967 it captured jerusalem's sector from jordan. amazon is selling its for debt offering in almost a year. the retail giant is issuing get in eight parts. the longest portion is a 48 security. amazon will use the proceeds to refinance debt and buyback stocks. no word on how much the company plans to raise. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more

than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the leisure economy, which include restaurants and travel

is up significantly as far as job gains. more people look for jobs in the month of april than the previous month. we are seeing positive signs as we continue to move forward. tom: secretary walsh on jobs day, a most interesting jobs day . a stunning surprise. in my history of doing this, no greater surprise than friday. amazon out with a many billions of dollars deal. in the markets, i would say that over one thing is the real yield pullback. ever negative numbers. the 10 year real yield -0.96. this is the right person at the right time to talk about the retail kings of america right friday we get retail from america to the lowest price point. stephen said off is an expert. -- stephen sadove is an

excellent person to talk about this. herbal essence and the boom in shampoo, it is his fault. he is -- literally inventing that out of pixie dust. let me talk about mastercard and the knowledge mastercard has. you say it goes over to department stores enjoying this resurgence. stephen: good to see you. i think the month of april, the mastercard spending numbers show the consumer is coming back with a vengeance. overall sales. this is not just a mastercard sales but it cuts across all forms of tender. sales up 23.3% versus a year ago. importantly they were up 10.8% versus 2019. you are seeing a consumer coming back across all sectors. you mentioned department stores. it is in restaurants, it is in categories like jewelry and

apparel. you're starting to see the consumer saying i want to get back out again. tom: let me ask you a question. are we pulling forward next autumn sales? are we redoing the closet where nothing ebbs into the holiday season? what is that dynamic? stephen: there is no question we are redoing our closet. we are seeing a new fashion cycle starting. the guys in the gene business are talking about begier, higher waste -- the guys in the jeans business are talking about baggier, higher waists. you are seeing it not just in apparel but in handbags, jewelry. there are so much pent up demand in savings and the interesting thing is it's not just online. online is now 21% of all commerce and growing.

people are back in the stores and brick-and-mortar is starting to see that demand. tom: i will avoid the baggy higher waist thing. i do not think the higher waist jeans can work on me. if i can move up the scale to luxury, will there be a consolidation? luxury is three big french companies. how do we come out of this on an equity basis? further consolidation or will it be entrepreneurial with ipo's and the rest? stephen: it will be a combination of both. the strong ones will be picking up some of the big rands. you will see consolidation in lvmh. you are seeing companies like tapestries performing much better. you will continue to see these nich brands that do their ipo's. the consumer wants value.

they want a story. in the luxury space you will continue to a lot of innovation. tom: to bring it back to mastercard in your work for them as a senior advisor, how is our relationship with our cards changing? there is a lot of dynamics in fintech and digital dynamics. how is mastercard model that? stephen: you have a consumer going cashless so the they want to touch less, they went ease of transaction. they love their cars. it bodes well for the mastercard's of the world in terms of changing behavior. it is not this -- it is not just the transaction. it is what you do with the data and analytics and the ability to understand consumers. i think this is a value-added proposition that retailers need. you see a lot more of that coming out of the use of data and meeting consumer needs. tom: what is the permanent

change to the consumer out of this natural disaster we have all lived. stephen: i think the consumer goes back to the value and values. they want to get what they want when they want it. this on the channel shopping is here to stay. these are fundamental changes that had started earlier that have probably accelerated over the last year in terms of the shift to omni channel and differentiated brands. tom: you just described amazon. they are doing an eight tranche offering today of a gazillion dollars in bonds. how does amazon adapt? stephen: amazon is a winner. the amazons, the walmart, the targets continue to do well. the marketplaces are important in this environment. amazon is not the only marketplace. the consumer loves convenience.

amazon sets the standard. the way they do the presentation of product, they understand the personalization. that will be the expectation. amazon is a winner but i think there'll be a lot of others as well. you also have these new evolving , whether it is resale or rental. all of this is new age in terms of how retail is evolving. tom: does amazon take luxury from luxury? will gucci sell on amazon. stephen: my guess is probably not. i think the gucci and lvmh will play in other kinds of marketplaces. maybe in the data of the sax.com. i do not know that those brands play in the amazon world, but amazon will be a major playing in apparel. i'm not sure it is at the high end. tom: it is been too long.

stephen sadove very much appreciated. so much to talk about. it has been the most non-boring monday after jobs report i've ever seen. it is personified by dxy about ready for an 89 print. a blending bundle of major nation trading currencies. 92 down to 90.0. you see that expressed in sterling. 142 rounded up. yuan, stronger sterling and everything. the yield space is fascinating. the two year yield, .1449. that will be one of the themes of david westin speaking with robert kaplan.

the last time president kaplan spoke, he moved the markets. we'll see if he can do that again. stay with us on radio and television. this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open"

with jonathan ferro. ♪ jonathan: all-time highs into monday. from new york city, good morning, good morning. the countdown to the open starts right now. we advance another .1% on the s&p 500. we begin with the big issue, supply-side mystery. >> everything has to be put on the table at this point. whether it is unemployment benefits, going back to school. >> until we get the schools open again. you have a lot of parents at home. >> unemployment insurance payments keeping people at home. it could be a skill mismatch. >> all of these things are factors. >> that is why does more supply issue. >> people have to start paying more for labor. >> it could bring wages up. >>