tv Bloomberg Daybreak Europe Bloomberg May 11, 2021 1:00am-2:00am EDT
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indicators. the nasdaq closed 2% down. you still like growth relative to value and you are overweight in the u.s. to still think that is a position you want to maintain echo -- to maintain echo >> it depends on interest rates. those growth sensitive sectors like i.t., they are in equity terms long duration securities. the expectation for when investors receive cash flows is so far out in the future. interest rates matter a lot. if i'm wrong, and interest rates >> good morning from new york. to become deanchored, that will i'm annmarie hordern merton -- here's bloomberg europe. his we need to know this create a huge problem for the morning. tech sector. it xl down hit the nasdaq and coming back to what we are then asia. thinking about, how the fed will react, suspecting they will look surging producer prices out of through this, it means real china added to the debate over inflation. no better time to speak with interest rates will be mark mobius. he joins us this hour. suppressed and nominal interest and north america's biggest rates we do not have that much -- we do not think have that petroleum pipeline races to much further decline. as a consequent, growth stocks
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recover as president biden says russia has some response ability like i.t. should not suffer too much more damage. to address the attack. annmarie: we know there are very good morning to you. inflation fears but given that it is when i am on the east this week is a huge data point, coast but 6:00 a.m. in the city of london. cpi data in the u.s., china cpi i'm annmarie hordern. we begin with absolute sea of and ppi, giving investors want to take money off the table this week? red across the global equity market. you can see on your screen asia-pacific down two and 2/10 >> valuations help square that circle. i do not think that is an of a percent. argument that can be dismissed, nasdaq futures retreating especially when it comes to further after yesterday closing things like i.t. which has for years, three or four years, been down 2.6 tenths of a percent. very crowded. that crowded -- crowding has inflation clearly hostile to the tech sector this morning. been justified and that return we move across assets this of equity has been more morning. we see oil a little bit softer. meaningful than elsewhere but it does not escape the absolute colonial pipeline saying they have a plan to restart the valuation picture, which is that entire pipeline by the end of those are very crowded and the week. expensive sectors. i do not dismissed that thought for a second. annmarie: tim graf stays with us this morning. we want to get a recap from annabelle. hey, annabelle.
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>> the last -- a variant from india is being classified as a variant of concern by the who. they will publish a report today, the worries being these to transmit and it being able to evade key antibodies. copper this morning, 10,000, india has seen more than 300,000 $25. up for tenths of a percent. new infections for 20 straight 10 year yield, one point 59%. just under 1.6%. it level we breached yesterday. days. as i said, tech is getting ready. train more than five times annual revenue. china has seen its slowest volatility is tech stopped chunked the most from early march. leaping to the highest level since to the six. the frothy is to small fry was population growth since the slams. the markets away a crucial u.s. 1950's. cpi reading. it is sharply reducing its size of the laser force -- labor robert kaplan gave us his take an exclusive interview. force as the nation ages. take a listen. publish and may well shrink in the coming years -- it may >> you not want to be market key milestone and have preemptive. you also do not want to be so reactive that you are late. brought them occasions for growth and finances. some of the worst unrest israel we have the tools to deal with has seen for years escalated these inflationary issues when you use them late they can have last night. palestinian militants in the gaza strip fired dozens of a jarring effect so i think the rockets at jerusalem and the challenge for us is to find a south of the country. israeli jets retaliated, killing
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balance. >> the tech tumble has spilled 20 and injuring 65. prime minister netanyahu is into asia. joining us to break down the market action from singapore. accusing because i of crossing the redline. he things the current round of violence could last for some time. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in where does his inflation angst being seen were acutely in the more than 120 countries. market? this is bloomberg. annmarie: thank you. . >> good morning. as you were describing, tech is just ahead, is russia responsible echo -- responsible? this is playing out of the moment. geographically this is bad for a prison biden says there is lot of ages markets. evidence that the hackers or the software they use are in russia. all the expertise in the area. the latest coming up next. this is bloomberg. ♪ the index in taiwan down more than 4% today. japanese stocks and korean kospi feeling the pain. it is most intense in hong kong and those chinese companies listed in hong kong, big tech companies, the likes of maite
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swan, jd.com. the ones that were already encountering some of their own problems, from a crackdown on the tech companies at home in their domestic market, coming into a global selloff, as well, magnifying all those concerns and making those markets look particularly week. annmarie: what about the producer prices, up the mosys 2017 in china? but cpi was relatively subdued. what you make of this? is it showing us this is a commodity super cycle in the surgery are seeing is sitting the producers but not yet been passed on to the consumers? >> that is one of the key things to watch for the chinese markets. those higher input costs, those higher prices of commodities, they start to get past to consumers and to the rest of the world fire increases. at the moment it seems like the
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comedies are swallowing quite a lot of that via tighter margin. the question is if they start to pass on those costs and can only lead to a bigger inflation problem inside china into the rest of their world via the exports. annmarie: what does this mean for the pboc? >> pboc has a difficult counseling act at the moment in china. when it really wants to do is keep on tightening policy ever so gently and slowly. particularly if it feels inflationary concerns building. that is the sensible thing to do at the moment. it wants to control natural risks, as well. it really does not want a stock route on their hand and it does not want the market to start to turn into that kind of negative feedback cycle we have seen so often in the past. policymakers are still trying to be very consistent in their messaging, talking about no sharp turns, but at the same
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>> we know there have been time they were going to be doing reports of this rogue cyber everything they could to avoid group out of eastern europe. loosening policy at this stage in the cycle. annmarie: paul dobson, thank you some have attributed it to russia. so much for joining us. we are making sure to try to confirm that. we also know that so far the we want to get more insight with our guest hosts this morning. supply has not been impacted by tim, the ppi search in china -- -- of gas has not been impacted, we have expectations for an absolute surgeon u.s. cpi, how but if that goes on too long, it will change. are you walking through all we know right now we have not these inflation figures in the seen big price spikes or angst is causing in the market? anything as a result of this. we know the company is doing >> is clearly pushing breakeven everything it can to look under the hood of its systems to make inflation expectations higher. sure that they have been able to the key question then will be contain the attack and that it what it does to nominal rates. i think the key answer to that did not inject any malicious comes from the fed and how the malware into the system. fed is thinking about nominal they believe they will probably interest rates because, as much have a substantial restoration as this is a huge commodity price search, i suspect it is by the end of this week. one that the fed, at least if their language, other than cap hopefully this will be a that you mentioned earlier, it short-term disruption that will not impact the lives of everyday is to be followed in recent
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citizens, hopefully. weeks, there will probably look but i will say it speaks to the to it not until long-term broader issue that this issue of inflection -- inflation exit cyberattacks on our critical stations become d anchored. infrastructure, especially energy infrastructure, is not we are not quite there yet. going away. this is a serious example of the key question will be what we are seeing across the following is if we get there and that starts to become dea board in many places. it tells you we need to invest nchored because then you get a in our systems, our transmission policy response from the fed that will have powerful impacts grids for electricity. on markets around the world. we need to invest in cyber annmarie: what will it take to defense in these energy defend get there? >> we're talking about a rate that has 50 or 60 basis points -- energy systems. private sector has to come and to climb more in terms of the step up to the plate. many are but there are quite a forward breakeven rate to get you back into all-time high few who have been slow to do so. territory. i think at a minimum you will need to see that. i think this will serve as the fed will probably want to examples of why it is important see a breakthrough that or we'll to accelerate. annmarie: the u.s. energy have to see a break to that. that sort of top and range of around 3% on this five-year secretary speaking with david westin. we want to stay with the story. forward expectations. resid biden says russia has some for them to consider things to be deanchored. response ability to address the annmarie: this is not even the ransomware hack. he stopped short of claiming the kremlin for the attack but said fed's preferred gauge of there is evidence that the
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hackers or the software that they used are in russia. training is now, jamie chair of inflation. is the market over at again -- over egg egg this? a -- terror of a. >> a little bit. what is the latest in terms of we expect a little moderation in cpi in the u.s. this weekend and getting these systems back online? thanks getting back to normal. >> because the attack we have gauges of prices is great from online retailers and essentially hijacked colonials there were three or four i.t. network, on monday they consecutive months of very strong readings and these tend said they were operating a to be forward inflation segment of the pipeline operating from north carolina -- readings. the fact that nominal rates have to maryland and it was doing it not really responded in our view manually. they are trying to find this kind of the right reaction. workarounds. they had this response in q1, rather than put it online but the picture of the last six because of the risk that the weeks is a far more moderate one hackers who have control of the in rates. that is something we agree with, i.t. network might be able to infiltrate or manipulate the given what we see from those system that involves the pipeline. we are already seeing the impact , fuel shortages, gas stations along the east coast running out of fuel. the shortages have hit the aviation industry. this will be a work in progress.
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they will be working on this essentially until the end of the week when they think they will be able to put the services back online. annmarie: our fantastic bloomberg news reporting at a gas station, the phone was picked up by a clerk who said they were out of gas. you're seeing fuel shortages it places like north carolina and alabama. thank you so much for joining us. without this morning's tim graf from state street. tim, we talk about what is going on with colonial pipeline and futures and gasoline surging. everything is mellowing out. they say they will be back online towards the end of the week. regardless of that, we are seeing massive spikes across commodities. energy, metals, agriculture. what you want to be exposed to in terms of this potential super cycle? >> sure, sure. in absolute terms, they probably
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are all fine. we're coming out of a huge economic contraction and economies are slowly reopening. they are supported by monetary and fiscal stimulus, the likes of which we have never seen before, or at least not seen in the postwar era. we are still constructive on the complex as a whole. within it, the relative views we take would be favoring metals over energy, and particular industrial focused metals, precious metals even. we mentioned real rates falling in the last segment. we favor precious metals, again. having that against energy, where this pipeline story is a clear example of a supply shock. it is taking place against a backdrop of a big supply glut. demand perhaps coming back to the energy market a little slower than what we see in the metals market. annmarie: we saw this and the ppi out of china, surging the most since 2017. our guest yesterday, manus and
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myself guessing that china was hoarding these raw materials last year when they were very cheap. if that was the case last year and china is the mega consumer of all these agricultural products, what does it mean for the pace of the prices echo -- of the prices echo --? >> this would speak to me to be something akin to hoarding. china did it last year. it is everyone else piling in now. the pace of this is probably for the time being going to be looked through when it comes to the effect it has on policymakers and the effect it has on markets outside commodities. it cannot be dismissed as was mentioned in the last segment. if it does start feeding into consumer prices. the consumer has to start weathering some of the inflation , or, if as was mentioned, merging start to be hits, that
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is the key question about the pace here. if it become so aggressive corporate have no choice but to force it on consumers. annmarie: the stimulus programs, especially in the u.s. favoring this infrastructure. do you think they will continue to support specifics? at least in this commodity super cycle? annmarie: i would say the impact still has to be priced in. i do not think there is a fully 100% chance of this infrastructure plan being passed . i suspect the market is reading this as their being still in a lot of negotiations going on and the full scale of what he is proposing might not get there. we are relatively optimistic it will, though. i do not think that is fully priced. it is something -- especially green initiatives, it will not just be the u.s. pursuing. there will be other countries looking towards this.
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it is more of a longer-term demand story for us, as well. annmarie: shifting gears, we have u.k. gdp tomorrow, a survey for year on year is -6.1%. what are you expecting echo -- expecting? >> we know q1 will look like a disaster. we were all sitting at home and not going out. the economy has only begun opening up in the last six to eight weeks or so. these numbers tomorrow i would not expect to be too meaningful, other than they do give us a sense of how big the hole we were in is or was and what we are going to be emerging from and how that will influence growth expectations for the rest of the year. a lot of that remains to be seen as far as how the economy reopens and how the market starts to heal. annmarie: will the pound be able to hold onto 141? >> we do like the pound against the dollar.
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that is part of a broader dollar weakness story. the question presses how it does against the euro. right now we favor the ketchup story in europe more. i not think it will necessarily hold onto as much of its recent gains. focusing on the euro. probably it will do finding as the dollar, because we are more bearish on the dollar. annmarie: tim graf, thank you for joining us this morning. just had, amazon borrowed more than $18 billion in a debt sale. it is not actually needed. the details next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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i'm annmarie hordern. amazon has issued $18.5 billion worth of debt. the first time in tech giant has barred from capital market since june of 2020. it offered up in a parts. this most was $1 billion to be used for sustainable project. dani burger joins us. scott a lot of attention because it is a huge debt offering and they do not action unit. what are they doing? reporter: in their earnings not too long ago they said they had $75 worth of cash and cash equivalents on their balance sheets. that certainly raises the question -- why? to some degree, the environment is just so favorable to go into the capital markets and take out more debt. for one, treasury yields are still low despite the conversation we have about rising inflation and potentially rising yield. there are still demand out there for corporate debt. in fact, amazon had planned about a $3.5 billion debt offering smaller than what they ended up doing. there's clearly demand there.
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on the other hand, spreads are so low it does make sense for a lot of these corporate's to go and refinance their debt. amazon is not the only want to take advantage of this picture. which of course is interesting giving so many countries -- given to sony companies took out that during the pandemic. annmarie: where exactly will they be using the debt? >> i think this is the corporate story of 2021. noxious rams on but for all of these companies. -- not just for amazon but for all of these companies. it speaks for the economic environment, what happens to inflation. amazon did not give a lot of details. moody's makes the unusual step of upgrading a company's debt, when they took on more debt. saying it temporarily increases leverage and if they use it for growth it will be long-term positive. annmarie: dani burger, thank you so much for that story which he
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calls the corporate story of 2021. up next, emerging markets amid a selloff in chinese talks. -- stocks. we get the takes on the ppi numbers. who better to speak to you then mark mobius echo? -- mark mobius? don't go away, this is bloomberg. ♪ so many people are overweight now and asking themselves, "why can't i lose weight?" for most, the reason is insulin resistance, and they don't even know they have it. conventional starvation diets don't address insulin resistance. that's why they don't work. now there's golo. golo helps with insulin resistance, getting rid of sugar cravings, helps control stress and emotional eating and losing weight. go to golo.com and see how golo can change your life. that's golo.com. ♪ annmarie: good morning.
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down hits the nasdaq and asia. the debate over inflation, no better time than to speak with mark mobius. america's biggest petroleum pipeline races to recover as president biden says russia has some responsibility to the attack. good morning. 90 minutes from the start of european equities trading, and it is a sea of red. the hang seng down 2%. nasdaq yesterday, inflation is hostile to tech. nasdaq dropping 2.6%. this morning you see that retreat extending. across assets, we are seeing softer on wti as colonial pipeline says by the end of the week they will have most of the pipeline up and running.
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copper up 0.9%, and 10-year treasury yield 1.95%, a little lower after yesterday breaching 1.6%. tech is getting wrecked across the world. nasdaq 100 trading at five times annual revenue, slumped as volatility jumped. inflation expectations leading to the highest level since 2006. everything was slammed. as markets await a crucial u.s. cpi reading on wednesday. dow president robert kaplan gave his impression. >> you do not want to be preemptive or so reactive that you are late. we have the tools to deal with inflationary issues. when you use them late, they can have a jarring effect.
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think the challenge for us is to find the balance. annmarie: concerns around inflation slammed u.s. tech stocks and it has spilled over into the asian session. searching producer prices in china. -- surging producer prices in china. we are joined by mark mobius, partner / co-founder, mobius capital partners. a good afternoon to you. i know you are in cairo today. what we saw our inflation fears hitting the market, spilling over to asia, and the ppi numbers out of asia surging at the highest since 2017. what is your take on inflation, durable or transitory? mark: it is not transitory. we will continue to have valuation currencies, and with the way governments have been
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printing and releasing currencies into the market, particularly the u.s., you will have inflation numbers going up which is a reflection of the currency. annmarie: how do you see this playing out in emerging markets? who will be the winners and the losers? mark: the big problem facing emerging markets in the short-term is the covid crisis. the fact you have covid strains coming out is not good. here in egypt tourism is suffering dramatically. in the tourist spots there are very few people. tourism is a big problem here. that is true in other emerging markets, where you see an uptick in india with more problems in covid. this will be solved, but in the short-term it is not very good.
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some markets are holding up, it depends on what sector you are in. in india, a number of stocks we own continue to do well. i think it depends on what sector you are in, but generally speaking the picture is not good in the short term. annmarie: you have lived through a lot of hiking cycles, and you think inflation will be more durable. what does this mean for the fed? mark: the fed will try to solve the inflation numbers, try to lower the inflation numbers. the banks have a schizophrenic attitude. on one hand they want to present inflation, but if it goes over they get scared. if it goes below, they try to do something about it which is why you have this system going on as we see. annmarie: we also have the ppi
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numbers, valuations in the chinese stock market remain high relative to their own history, but cheap when you look at them versus the rest of the world. how do you view china now, bullish or bearish? mark: i am bullish in certain sectors, in the tech sector i am bullish. they are ramping up their tech sector and tech research, which will be beneficial for the sector generally. right now you have a problem of a shortage of semiconductors, and that will hit some companies dependent on the flow of semiconductors. the people making semiconductors and doing the design will do well. that is where we are focusing, on the semiconductor manufacturers and designers. the others down the line who depend on the semiconductors have a real problem. annmarie: you say you like tech, but i wonder, is the tech
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crackdown hurting your investment? mark: no, we are focusing on the companies in taiwan who do the design for the chips in semiconductors. and in china we are not so heavy in tech. we are more involved in educational companies and medical companies, companies doing testing. that is where we are focusing on in china at this stage. annmarie: we had census data that showed the population growth is the slowest since the 1950's. what does this mean for long-term chinese growth as well as consumption? mark: the important point is that the age group, the consumer age group is growing in china because of the one child policy.
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these are people now moving into becoming homeowners and consuming goods for the home. in some ways, this population change is good for the market, the consumer market. longer-term, you will have a dip because these people will get old and you do not have enough consumers coming down the line. remember it is one billion people, so it will be huge market. annmarie: when you look at cpi numbers relatively subdued, but there was a surge in ppi numbers. at the moment for the last month that does not look like the surge in commodities is being passed on to consumers. what the make of the spike in commodity markets? you think it is a super cycle, and how long can that last? mark: it will last, and it is reflective of the valuation of currencies.
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remember, the u.s. dollar was not worth what it is today in terms of the prices of commodities. the valuation of the currency, you need more currency to buy an ounce of gold or whatever it is, whatever commodity you are buying. i see commodity prices will continue to be strong and obligate stronger as we go along. annmarie: you mentioned being worried about the pandemic, and we see it raging across india. you are still bullish on india. explain why. mark: the interesting thing is despite the pandemic and of the problems india has, stocks have been doing well. there has not been a huge downturn, and that is a reflection of the longer-term view people are taking in the stocks they are investing in.
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even with the horrible situation they have, it is one billion people like china, and there is tremendous demand for goods and services. one of the bright spots is the government has realized they are inadequate in many areas in servicing the medical side of the economy, hospitals, and therefore they may move more toward privatization, which would ba good thing to solve -- be a good thing to solve these problems. annmarie: concerns about record defaults in emerging markets. what would potentially be the next domino to fall? mark: in terms of the debt problem in many of these countries, there certainly will be many bankruptcies.
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remember in many of these economies, central banks have allowed the banks so the nonperforming loans do not look as bad, and this will come home to roost. you are seeing a number of bankruptcies and provinces as we go forward and move out of the pandemic, and the normal system of banking sets the stage. annmarie: give us a sense of where you are headed. if you had 100,000 dollars to invest at this moment, where would you put it? mark: i would put it in good stocks for emerging markets because they will continue to grow fast, faster than developed countries. some countries, like here in greece, will not do so well. you will see 3% growth in egypt, but in china and india, economic
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growth will be much faster than the united states, europe, japan etc. it is a good idea to be in emerging markets. equities is the place to be, because with equities, you will have the valuation currencies. annmarie: when you talk about equities being the place to be, do you think the value trade will remain en vogue? mark: no, it will be a combination of value and growth. with continuing low interest rates, the normal parameters are probably not a good place to be. and the numbers to look at our the return on capital and dividend yield. you have to have a combination of value and growth. annmarie: mark mobius, partner / co-founder, mobius capital partners, thank you for joining
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>> this is a contrast to the great recession where we had a slow recovery because of sluggish demand. households were not spending. in the current situation we have substantial demand, housel's are spending, but what we are seeing -- households are spending, but we are seeing across the board is supply issues. my team has warned me leading up
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to this report that there is a mean for chance to be disappointed because we are seeing -- our estimate is 2 million 55 and above workers have either retired on schedule or accelerated their retirement. 1.5 million working mothers are home with their kids, lack of childcare, school reopening's are an issue. yet we are hearing broadly that employers are trying to hire but are struggling to compete with unemployment benefits. the last thing we hear from goods companies is they are cutting back production runs because they lack input. they have been doing temporary layoffs, and we saw all of that, but they will be temporary because they lack full production runs. we saw all of that in this jobs report. david: in specific issues in
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your region, texas, louisiana and new mexico? >> we saw all of these issues across the board. we do extensive outreach and redoubled it since the pandemic, not only talking to businesses but community leaders. they have been the ones warning us, skill training pipelines have been reduced. they cannot get people to take money to enter skills training. they see many workers who are taking unemployment who are reluctant to enter full-time jobs, they may be doing day work as a replacement which allows them to continue to collect unemployment. we see elevated high school dropouts, and you notice in this jobs report one group that had an increase, their employment was 16-19-year-olds, but a number of them were high school dropouts who would be better off
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in the economy in the long run if they finish high school, got their ged at least so they could get into skills training. we see all these trends. annmarie: robert kaplan speaking to david westin. president biden has up his defense of the unemployment bill. let's speak to our senior editor, derek wallbank. a big debate now in this country is whether or not the supplemental unemployment benefit is a reason why we did not have a strong april payrolls report. this is a critical week for president biden to sell his plan. how does he do this amidst this debate? derek: i think there is a lot to unpack and this is a critical week we have right now.
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for joe biden and the future of the jobs plan he wants through, you are talking about a meeting yesterday with joe manchin, meetings with congressional leaders. we will see the outlook on this jobs and infrastructure package at the white house wants to put together. what we could see is splitting or movement toward the overall cost of the plan, but there are a lot of external factors. you mentioned the jobs report. i want to throw in this oil pipeline issue that is affecting the east coast. when you get into these externalities about infrastructure, it will have an effect. there could be additional impetus to get something done where the jobs report affects
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annmarie: good morning, this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." confirming the 2021 forecast after reporting sales that fell 9% year on year. we are joined by christina johansson, interim chairman - management board & ceo / cfo, bilfinger. a very good morning to you. you are confirming your 2021 forecast. sales were lower when you look
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at the year. what are you seeing in terms of demand? where is it coming from? christina: demand has been coming back fast and strong in europe in most of our industries. we still have reduced demand versus pre-covid is in the oil and gas north sea, where the covid restrictions have a negative impact, and hopefully in the second half that will be gone. we need a little time in north america to pick up again and get volumes back, but overall we are very pleased with how the ramp up has been proceeding. annmarie: you are on the front lines of rising commodity costs. will that start to implement the sense you have to pass that on to your services, to your customers? christina: i think we will benefit going forward, that
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there was less work done last year. we will also have a bit of ramping up because last year have the low levels. in general, also looking at the structure of the equipment, and the factories. there is a strong need for our services. the ramp-up will be supported by general growth but also making up for last year's low-level. annmarie: would you say there is pent up in terms of building and services? christina: yes, there is, but we also expect in some countries there will be initiative from the state, like in the u.s. that will support a lot of investment going forward where we will benefit depending country to country how strong the
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governments will intervene and support the ramp-up. annmarie: our most of your employees back and working? christina: yes, most of our employees are back and have been back for a long time. the full crew cannot go out and work on the platforms, but without exception we are fully back again. some people are doing home office, but that will change from quarter three, and more people will work from the office again. annmarie: a few companies are offering incentives for employees to get a vaccination. is bill finger doing anything like that? christina: no, we are not doing that, and you have to be careful to enforce that. we try to make it easy for people. we are allowing some to provide
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the vaccine from the company but it has to be a free decision by the employers, and we should not enforce anything here. most people in europe and north america take it and that makes sense. annmarie: our bloomberg news team reported there was takeover talks that fell through. can you confirm that? are there active talks happening now? christina: there are always rumors and speculation, and we do not comment on rumors and speculation. my job and responsibility is to make sure bill finger will develop and become a better and more successful company, but no comments in regards to rumors. annmarie: what about your communications with your largest shareholders and investors about a sale? christina: we are not discussing these topics these are
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management decisions, how we want to proceed with the company and make it better going forward. the supervisory board is the right forum if we want to proceed. going forward, it is a lot about using the opportunity for building out of the transformation. annmarie: we have to leave it there, thank you for joining us, christina johansson, interim chairman - management board & ceo / cfo, bilfinger. the european open his next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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