wouldn't to a judgment yet -- wouldn't leap to a judgment yet. >> the fed is telling you inflation fears are all over the place for investors. >> one of the aspects of inflation that i think is driving the commodity move is public policy. >> i just don't think it will lead to sustained higher inflation. i am more with the fed thinking that it will be temporary. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro. lisa abramowicz will be back with us on monday. here's the line of the last 24 hours for me. wells fargo, "no one said reopening would be cheap." tom: that's true, and we have a

slew of economic data here. ppi gives us a second look today. the three ranges of industrial inflation that we are going to parse out, on the claims report as well. somewhere in there is industrial production. retail sales tomorrow for some people will be as big as jobs day a week ago. jonathan: you mentioned ppi. cpi is higher, too. so far there appears to be tolerance for that. for the equity investor at the moment, laser focused on margins. that is the challenge for the equity market. tom: for all of you on radio and tv, we got a perfect guest coming up to address what jon just spoke about. i'm really going to emphasize this. we are in a bull market, in a

barely corrective state on some of the big techs, and we are nowhere near the agony of a correction. jonathan: i agree with you on many levels, except i think it is unfair to say we haven't seen some big moves. we've seen it on some single names. apple really hasn't performed, down 14% off the january highs. look to the john -- look to the bond market. tom: is tesla a dow component? maybe bitcoin is. just since you and i did our editorial meeting this morning, bitcoin was 51,000 dollars, and we are enjoying a $48,000 handle now. good morning, elon musk. jonathan: down 10.8%, and the tesla ceo has decided you can't use bitcoin to buy your tesla's anymore. on environmental concerns, on electricity uses. many people surprised he didn't know that already. tom: we have no expertise here,

but you've got to ask, is this sec material? jonathan: we have no expertise here. i look forward to seeing what the sec has to say about it. tom: what about a theory him? -- what about if th -- what about ethereum? jonathan: what about doge? tom: vet bill got a little bit of doge a year ago. jonathan: i think what nick maroutsos did was beautiful. i wish i had the same position. walk away, be with the kids. what a move. tom: i can't see you with dogs, let alone kids. jonathan: i love dogs. tom: unreal. jonathan: i love dogs. babies come at the moment, i'm not sure about. let's move on. [laughter] the s&p down by 46.

in the bond market, unchanged. euro-dollar $1.2071. wti crude coming into .5%. tom: -- coming in 2.5%. tom: going back to the yield, 1.74% is what we need. jonathan: that was the high at the end of march. . it's quite a turnaround, isn't it? tom: bring in mr. co-talk -- mr. kotok. jonathan: david kotak joins us now, cumberland advisors cio. have you adjusted your strategy based on the data we have seen? david: we did. we've raised some cash. we are redeploying that cash. we think this selloff creates an entry opportunity, and we are doing it. that's number one. number two, you have a great interview with mohamed, and then he followed it with the best advice on the vaccine, and that is get, and 1/3 of the world is

not doing so, so there is no herd immunity. that means the health care sector, our weight in the health care sector is 28% of portfolios deployed broadly against a 13% market weight because we think pandemic effects in health care go on for several years if we have idiots who don't want to get vaccinated. we have to then tolerate that worldwide. jonathan: if you are overweight on health, where are you underweight relative to healthy market -- relative to how the market is structured? david: great stocks of yesteryear which are now having to deal with the reality check. we are overweight materials and industrials. tom: give us some color on that.

the dow is a large index. the dow jones industrial average. are you looking at united health care, hospitals? what are you looking at? david: we are looking at etf's. we have a basket of them. in the basket, we get the biotech very heavy overweight. if you think about the confrontation with the virus, and i think jennifer just talked about how you could vaccinate the whole world except the world doesn't want to be vaccinated. 1/3 of it isn't interested in avoiding sickness and death, which means we are going to have it for several years. the result i saw a news release about a hospital in ohio has 170

hospitalizations. not one of them got vaccinated. they all have covid. they are in the hospital. tom: any backdrop, mr. k -- in the backdrop, mr. kotok led on the study of sars years ago with a really transient research piece. will washington try to come in and capture the profits of the american health care system? david: i think you are right about the worry. what washington does in capturing profits, health care and otherwise, is obviously a very substantial piece. but do you eliminate profits? you cannot do so. you need pfizer, moderna, roche. you need worldwide great companies who have to confront a crisis that impacts 7 billion people. it is a recurring crisis. we are going to have boosters. we have so much going on in the

health care sector. my opinion is the health care sector is the growth sector now for several years. in the united states, we think health care can reach 20% of our gdp, and we are going to export it to the world. we have the best at it. we are terrific at it. if the government makes a mess of that, it would be a tragedy. jonathan: what did you think of the decision to pursue the suspension of ip protection on covid vaccines? david: i wrote against it. i was opposed to it. i think it was a mistake, and the pushback that came back at the administration was hard. you can license, then you supervise, you control, and you don't have contamination. you don't have counterfeiting of vaccines. if you suspend the ip and put it in the hands of bad actors, you get bad outcomes. jonathan: what about the

reopening trade in all of this? look at the cpi print yesterday. had a huge influence on the cpi print. are we done with that trade? david: no, we are not done with the adjustment to a shock. a big shock down, big shock up. let's look at those numbers in september and october. let's look at those numbers a year from now. a $1000 car rental one year ago today instead of $400 for a week will not be $1000 one year from now. it will be something lower. so response to shock, and then we can look at whether there is a trajectory on inflation. i think the federal reserve is doing the right thing. tom: very quickly here, jon and i are seriously considering moving to florida. jonathan: we will do the show from miami. [laughter] tom: you were pioneering on this. everyone is following david

kotok to florida. can i pull the bowtie thing off? can ferro looked british in florida? david: i don't know, if you take the bowtie off, you won't recognize him. jonathan: he's a seven foot tall. you can't miss him. [laughter] david co-talk, good to catch up, cumberland advisors -- david kotok, cumberland advisors cio. tom: he was original in his courage to write on that. jonathan: interesting to hear his thoughts on the health care sector. just on the moves to florida, some data for you. in april, manhattan leases jump sixfold from your earlier, the most in any month going back to 2009, by the appraiser miller samuel. tom: we've got a welcome wagon

out of the manse for you. they want you back. jonathan: they want me back in the building? you want me back on the upper eastside? tom: we don't have to drive the same car in the morning. jonathan: can i live on a different floor this time? tom: you can live on a different floor. jonathan: ok, i will consider it. you are too far north for me, tom. tom: save us with a data check. jonathan: i think we both need saving. s&p futures shaping up as follows. we declined 0.3%. unchanged on the 10 year at 1.6932%. up not even a basis point on the 10 year in the u.s.. in germany, i keep going back to this, the tenure blend -- the 10 year bund. tom: wow. who can we get when it crosses to a positive note? jonathan: we should get a banker out of germany, shouldn't we? tom: xavier can come on. jonathan: sam stovall joins us,

chief investment strategist come on banks, on the equity market. from new york city this morning, good morning. alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro. lisa abramowicz back with us on monday. heard on bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. southeastern states suffering the most from gasoline shortages will start to get some relief this weekend. the nation's largest fuel pipeline has resumed operation after a cyber attack. fuel started flowing yesterday afternoon, but a fleet of tanker trucks is needed to transport it from gasoline terminals to retail stations. fighting between israel and the gaza strip militants is spilling over into clashes inside israel. violence involving arabs and jews has spread across the country. people at synagogues, businesses, and vehicles have been attacked. border police were called up to

reinforce police in mixed arab/jewish towns. donald trump's king making plans could hurt republicans' congressional hopes year. the former president hopes to endorse many candidates in races and read and primaries and solidly gop districts -- in republican primaries and solidly gop districts. they could energize democratic candidates. jp morgan is pledging a 35% cut in carbon emissions for its oil and gas portfolio. the deadline for that is the end of the decade. last year, jp morgan agreed to align its financing with the paris climate agreement. elana musk says tesla is suspending car purchases using bitcoin. -- elon musk says tesla is

suspending car purchases using bitcoin. musk cited the amount of fossil fuels needed for bitcoin mining and transaction. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ pres. biden: we have been very your pipeline, one of the

reasons gas prices are going up. i think you are going to hear some good news in the next when he four hours. -- the next 24 hours. i think we will be getting that under control. jonathan: from new york city this morning, good morning. alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro. here's the price action this thursday morning. on the s&p 500, we declined 0.25% off the back of a three-day losing streak on the s&p. we are down another 10, 11 point. in the bond market, 1.6949%. earlier in the session, we did take a peek above 1.70%. euro-dollar unchanged. crude lower by 2.65%. finally, get to bitcoin, down 10% this morning. tom: rolling over right now. jonathan: rolling over off the back of elon musk's decision to suspend the use of bitcoin to purchase a tesla on

environmental concerns. tom: this is the energy consumption issue, which is not a new topic. we will get to it later. right now, this is really a joy, wendy benjaminson joins us from boom lyric -- from bloomberg. her tenure at "the houston chronicle" and the associated press, she is old-school washington press, and i will be blunt, there's not enough of that nowadays. she joins us for wisdom on your washington, d.c. i want to start with an open question. how is the biden adminstration covered differently than the trump administration? what have you noticed in the first 120 days of the journalism being done, compare and contrast on the two administrations? wendy: well, i think that it is a lot less tense. it is no less adversarial, though. you talk about old-school,

thanks so much for that. [laughter] but it is not less adversarial. reporters still challenge him and his staff on questions. the difference is they are getting an answer that the administration wants to message, but is usually fact-based, and that leaves the reporters with not a chance to write an aha, fact checking story. tom: with the gasoline shortages and all of that, is the distance from washington to our viewers and listeners, what is the linkage right now given the colonial uproar between the politicians and their constituents, or are they focused on the where pharaoh -- on the warfare within the beltway? wendy: i don't know if voters are as tuned into that as they will be in an election year, but

it has been really interesting to watch the colonial pipeline story, which is an unfortunate and scary, but brief breakdown in fuel deliveries around the country. republicans are turning joe biden into jimmy carter. consumer prices went up yesterday. people were hoarding gas because they were afraid, and all of a sudden it is 1978 again. all of a sudden, they were talking about gas lines. donald trump him jimmy carter yesterday. it is an interesting political message to try out. jonathan: i just want to turn to the price action quickly. we are now positive on the nasdaq. aztec 100 futures turning higher by about 0.2 percent. tesla was down a little bit simply with the moving bitcoin. now trading positive and premarket trading. so this market has turned around a little bit in the last couple of minutes. tom: getting out to claims herein 65 minutes or so, we will

see the claims number and then on to retail sales. wendy, which politician are you watching in the back-and-forth of gridlock between democrats and republicans? everyone is focused on joe manchin. give me another name. [laughter] wendy: ok, kyrsten sinema. she is a really interesting senator from arizona. she is a democrat. "businessweek" has a great profile on her in which people suggest she's sort of making herself in the mold of john mccain. she's a democrat who works with republicans. mccain of course being the late senator of arizona, the maverick. she's quite a character. during the pandemic when she couldn't get her hair done, she wore purple wigs on the floor of the senate. but she's a moderate to conservative democrat who wants to work with republicans on issues, and that makes are as important as joe manchin. jonathan: how did that meeting

go with the big four in the white house yesterday? wendy: it was kind of interesting. kevin mccarthy and mitch mcconnell came out and suggested things went fairly well. mitch mcconnell drew a redline in the sand for even touching the trump 2017 tax law, but i think there may be the beginnings of negotiations on how much infrastructure we will get into this bill, so it is a bipartisan bill, and i think the white house will try to do the rest on reconciliation, which means they only need 51 votes, not 60. jonathan: to be clear, the democrats are doing an infrastructure package without touching the trump tax cuts. wendy: democrats? no. jonathan: it is a redline for republicans. that is what i am trying to figure out. is it a redline for the administration, too? wendy: no, the way the white house sees us paying for this is through raising taxes on the wealthy. jonathan: ok. i guess that's the bottom line

then. wendy, good to see you. come back soon. wendy benjaminson there, bloomberg politics editor. republicans say let's talk, let's do this. here's our redline. tax cuts. we don't want to touch them. the democrats don't seem comfortable with that whatsoever. tom: they are being all cordial and polite, but i think there were multiple red lines yesterday. thank you, joe weisenthal, for this. jon, manhattan to jfk, $95, uberx. jonathan: what did you used to be, $70 -- what did it used to be, $70? within manhattan, it has gotten a whole lot more expensive in the morning. i think experience for a lot of people across the country will reflect the data.

you see that the job openings, too. we have seen some republican states say we think, and this is the view of republican governors at the moment across these several states, we think that the unemployment benefits are holding people back from returning to work. it will be really interesting to see whether people be returned to work in those states. tom: we do this with the aggregate. it was the biggest argument i ever had with alan meltzer. do we aggregate our economics or look at the micro data? our thoughts go up to camp gulfstream, and they are shipping her bags there. she's taking 12 bags and a makeup kit and all of that. the fees to do that went up. jonathan: to be clear, camp is happening this summer. do they have to wear a mask? wendy: that is up in the air -- tom: that is up in the air, but they've got a bubble thing. they are bringing the glossy i

-- the glossier into camp. jonathan: coming up, the retired editor of the gartman letter joins us shortly. your equity market recovering. this is bloomberg. ♪

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♪ jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, live on tv and radio, here's the price action this thursday morning. equities decline and then snap back. the nasdaq now positive by 0.4%. dead flat on the s&p 500 after a really volatile, violent session yesterday. let's not maybe use the word violent. volatile. plummeted, rolled over. just winding you up, tom. tom: got that going. wild session. jonathan: one to get to this. it's a chart, so i am going to describe it for you on radio just briefly. it is a chart of the cost of airline fares, which have just blown out month on month, up by more than 10%. you can throw in used car rentals, up 16%. take your pick.

for the reopening trades come of this economy facing shortages, prices are surging. economists spend the whole of yesterday explaining to people why none of this really mattered because in months to come, this will be solved by time. the supply story will heal, and we will heal with higher prices initially, and then things get back to normal. policymakers are focused on the destination. i keep going back to this. policymakers get to focus on the destination. market participants have to deal with an ever evolving balance of risks around their central view, which is why markets are always moving. switch up the board and get into the bond market. your 10 year yield was higher at 16,915% -- at 1.6915%. a brief break above 1.70%. this data, this volatile data is starting to get people to reassess the balance of risk and starting to push yields out. it is not just in the u.s.

it is in germany, too. we are inching back toward zero. the fed has said they are comfortable with this break out in yields over the last several months. i haven't heard that from the ecb. i wonder how they will feel when we get back to zero on the german 10 year how they will feel when they look at their bloomberg terminal and cn italian 10 year through 1%. tom: the german 10 year hasn't broken out. we are not even nearly 1.74% of the end of march. jonathan: 1.46% on the lows on friday. tom: kailey leinz had a special in the early edition, doing the calculus of your chart on airline fares. and you know what? it will equalize with the drop. jonathan: even with that pop, the scope for a bigger move higher. bank of america talking about that in their out. there is scope for another move higher to get back to where we

were before. the story will play out for several months ahead of us. tom: did romaine predict the muska move on tesla? jonathan: i expect he did. romaine: i missed this prediction, but i think a lot of others saw this one coming. in the premarket, we are getting alibaba earnings. keep in mind, that conference call a lot more important. that is kicking off now. keep in mind, a lot of people not only want to see what is going on with alibaba itself, but ant group.

premarket. tom: thanks very much. it is important that we have good conversations. we did that this morning with the gentleman from queens college cambridge. let's listen to dr. el-erian. >> the big message of the huge data miss come up yet on friday or yesterday, is that when there are structural changes going on in an economy, it becomes very difficult for economists to forecast with any degree of accuracy. tom: really can't say enough about that conversation. look for it in its entirety. lee got heated on central bank theory. always generous, dennis gartman joins us now, with the university of akron. i've got to start with the market reaction here. you and i know this is not a correction. it is not a bear market. it is a little bit of what the french call -- what do you do when you get this cacophony of events? dennis: i think you have to be very careful. i have really not liked stocks for the last two months, especially tech. i like the things that, if you drop them on the foot, will hurt. copper, steel, tin, aluminum, automobiles, tires, railroads. those sorts of things. but i have been very bearish about the stock market generally, and i think we are going to have a bounce today.

you can't take the dow down 1100 points in the course of three days and not have some return from the lows. but what bothers me, what we should watch for is how the volume comes in or get the volume came in yesterday on the downside very hard. if we have a bounce today and the volume is limited, and i think it shall be, that will be a very delicate circumstance. so i think you have to be very careful. i think dow can go down another several thousand points from here and still be within the confines of a long-term, multiyear secular bull market. but you could fall quite some distance in the next month or two. tom: you and i have argued over this, and that is the study of volume. i don't believe in it. you do. is the volume study today the same as it was when you and i were holding the s&p blotter in our hand, trying to figure out what to buy next? dennis: i still believe that good markets go up on strong volume and fall on week volume, and weak markets go up on lesser

volume and down on strong volume. that is what we have seen in the course of the last several months. the rallies have been on very light volume, and i think that was the precursor to this weakness. if my thesis holds, we will see. but i think right now, watching the volume is a very important circumstance to pay attention to, and i think it is bearish at this point. jonathan: some people trying to work out how they protect them selves because if the risk is inflation, what do you do? do you raise some cash, keep some dry powder? what does that actually look like? dennis: as chairman of the university of akron's endowment, we moved in february to reduce our exposure to the equities market by 3%. an endowment land, that is a material change. we actually took a position in gold to hedge out inflation risk. that has proved to be wise. i've been very lucky thus far, given the fact that we made that

change in late february. the russell is down 4% or 5%. polly good luck, colette fortune, call it maybe -- call it good luck, call it fortune, college maybe a wise trade. buying tips is maybe not a bad idea. buying etf's that are well covered, i think that is the way to go. raising cash is not a bad thing at this point in time. jonathan: let's talk about gold. when you moved, that has been a good play over the last couple of weeks. it hasn't worked all year, though, even though inflation has dominated the conversation. yesterday another example, even though the key theme was inflation. what you think has been going on in terms of the relationship between inflation and gold? dennis: i think millennials like to speculate or like to take positions with their stimulus checks in bitcoin and et

hereum, and i think that has been a drain at the margins. when the last 2% of the buyers become sellers, when the last 2% of the sellers become buyers, that is when price changes. think we have seen some movement on the part of investors into bitcoin, into the cryptocurrencies, and away from gold. however, i think that the several thousand year history of gold will trump the five-year, six year, seven year history of the cryptocurrencies. i think cryptos have been the pressure point. tom: very quickly here, it is four dollars a gallon for you to fill up the bentley. [laughter] you are living in the heart of this new gasoline thing. is it 1978 all over again? dennis: it feels like it. it has that look to it. the lines at some of the service stations in southeast virginia, especially tuesday, were very long, very surprising. you can find gasoline in the

morning when the tanker trucks come in, but by noon they are running out of gas. it does have that feel of the 1970's, when the odds and even license plate numbers were allowed to go in and buy gasoline. this will resolve itself. obviously the colonial pipeline said they are going to be back online, or came back online last night. by the weekend, this should be resolved. tom: i'm so sorry, i typo there. wonderful to see you this morning. i got emails already coming in from england. liter or litre? jonathan: don't ask me. google it and have a look. tom: go with me on this. is a leader a court? jonathan: i think prices are going up. is that what you want to hear? serious point on this. economists and the conversations we have on shows like this will not shape inflation expectations on the ground. inflation expectations will be

shaped i people and their everyday experience of prices, and that is the key point here. tom: inflation expectations are shaped by the new bill for kennel fee's puppy cut. up $20. jonathan: you and i are going to do a little but of selling during the commercial break. the nasdaq is up now. we advanced 0.5% on the nasdaq 100. tom: bear market is over. i missed my entry point. jonathan: alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the largest gasoline pipeline in the u.s. is returning to service. colonial pipeline began to resume fuel shipments yesterday afternoon, five days after a cyber attack sent pump prices absolutely surging and triggered shortages across the u.s. the biden adminstration temporarily lifted shipping requirements to allow foreign tankers to transport fuel to hard-hit areas.

president biden and republican congressional leaders see a narrow opening for compromise on infrastructure spending. republicans indicated after a meeting with the president they are still opposed to the size of his plan and raising the taxes to fund them. resident biden wants to expand the social safety net, along with building roads, bridges, and rail lines. the vaccine spree by wealthy nations could put off others by years. that is according to an envoy at the world health organization. he tells bloomberg that suppressing the virus pens on persuading rich donors to share excess vaccines and close a funding gap. analysts haven't been this positive on disney since more than a year ago. the entertainment giant reports fiscal second corder earnings after the closing bell today. disney is seen as more insulated from the unwinding of the stay-at-home trade. 26 of the 33 analysts who cover

disney rate it as a buy. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we have to have an open mindset and a lot of humility.

we have to recognize that we have to think in terms of a wave of scenarios and not get hostile to a single baseline, and we have to be able to course correct. this is the lesson when you have big structural changes. jonathan: just part of the conversation with mohamed el-erian. it is only bloomberg terminal, and hopefully very shortly, you will find it on bluebird.com as well -- on bloomberg.com as well. from new york city alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro. this morning, good morning. -- from new york city this morning, good morning. alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro. they nasdaq 100 now just about in positive territory on the s&p. in the fx market, euro stronger get euro-dollar, $1.2082. yields basically unchanged, 1.68% on tens after a sneak peek above 1.70% today.

tom: jon and i both watching that as well. the currency market not giving me much love today. there's not much going on there. jonathan: swissie come again bid stronger -- swissie, yen bid stronger this morning. a defensive posture earlier today starting to unwind as we make some progress this morning. tom: right now on the equity markets, jonathan krinsky joins us of baycrest partners. i love the distinction of the absolute versus the relative analysis. for our radio and television audiences, describe absolute return versus relative return, and how you handle that right now. jonathan k: we have been discussing, as many have, the growth value trade. if you take a step back and look at the long-term 20 to 30 year trend of value to growth, we know that value has been massively underperforming up

until about last november, and that ratio, a relative ratio of value to growth, bottomed around the same level that it did in the dotcom bubble, and now we are seeing value massively outperforming. that is the relative asset to it. the absolute aspect is that we actually think value and growth, really the entire market, continues to be under pressure, and should see some downside. basically, what that means is we think everything will come down. we have a 3950 immediate objective for the s&p, so everything comes down, but ultimately, value should outperforming that move down. tom: bring up a chart here. i am going to describe this, the s&p 500 back 30 years. it has a real in urschel -- real inner show -- real inertial

force. it comes down to the inertial force once value gets going. are we in the early stages of that inertial force where value turns appreciates, relative to growth, and then it just keeps on giving return? jonathan k: i think we are, but again, you have to remember, if you are purely a relative market neutral participant, you probably want to keep pounding that trade value on growth. what you have to recognize is that value in absolute terms, if we are talking about the russell 1000 value, a few days ago it was 20% above its 200 day moving average. if you look at that spread, how far it is above the 200 day, we have only seen that one other time in the last 30 years, and that was about six months after the financial crisis low. so it is pretty remarkable that we have gotten to such an extreme spread, given that we

are now 14 months removed from the covid low, which was a much smaller decline then we saw in 2008. from our perspective, we think value outperforms. in absolute terms, this is not where you want to be putting all your chips on the table. jonathan f: speaking of chips, walk me through the workings on semis and the chipmakers, and what you're taking away from that at the moment. jonathan k: semis were one of the absolute performing industry groups off the covid lows. i think something like 150% off the lows. for much of last year, there was talk about how semis were the new part of the dow theory, a very leading indicator, a cyclical group, but also with that growth aspect. so we have to respect the inverse. what we saw over the last several weeks and even the last month or two is that semis relative to the s&p started to

break down, so it's a bit of a warning sign. certainly they can bounce here, but i think that relative performance needs to be watched closely as a good risk barometer for the overall market. jonathan f: does that make you cautious near-term? jonathan k: that has been part of our cautious call. again, we continue to think 3950 is kind of a decent spot to look for the s&p. semis are about 5% of the s&p 500, which is actually about twice as big as for other sectors, so they are a very important group. if the semis go lower, s&p is probably going lower with it. tom: jonathan ferro has been talking about the relative move in some of these big tech stocks. do you signal it as amazon, apple, the faang's, that they are in a new bear market? jonathan k: i don't know that you could say they are in a new bear market. this is where absolute versus relative comes in. in absolute terms, a lot of these faang stocks have really

consolidated for the last nine months, netflix and amazon. they really peaked last summer, early fall. but as a result, the relative performance of the s&p has really started to break down a bit, but i think it is a little premature to say they are in a bear market or getting money. typically when you see these big consolidations in long-term uptrend, they are viable. i still think there is some reason to be optimistic in the long term those names, but clearly if your timeframe is two to three months, they are just not performing well. but that speaks to the whole value growth rotation. there's a lot of rotation going on. i think a lot of people are using these as a source of funds, so that is going to keep a lid on them to some extent in the near-term. jonathan f: we've got to run. good to catch up to get the technical view on this market. jonathan krinsky there, bay

crest partners chief market technician. are you rotated in on that big cash position? tom: i was going to rotate income up the red sox lost. the oakland athletics are destined this year. jonathan f: who is playing well? tom: the mets, the yankees are coming on. west coast baseball, jon. we've got to do a rape trip out to l.a. jonathan: don't you just want to get back in a stadium? tom: i do. jonathan: don't you want to be in eighth stadium -- in a stadium full of people? i want to take you to italy, to milan. that's where we need to go. tom: ac milan, what did they do yesterday? jonathan: we could qualify for the champions league with a nice 7-0 win over to reno. tom: it's a no-brainer.

jonathan: you would have to talk to the head of tv and management. tom: no way. jonathan: but i would like to make that happen. good morning. alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro. heard on bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv, your equity market turning around. this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> i wouldn't leap to a judgment yet on the basis of one month data. >> there are inflation fears all over the place for investors. >> the question is which will investors continually pay for what feels like a fairly well-known story? >> one of the aspects of inflation that i think is driving the commodity move is in public policy. >> i just don't think it will lead to sustained higher inflation, so i am more with the fed thinking that it will be temporary. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone.