economists to focus with any degree. >> we are not done with an adjustment to a shock. they stock down, they shot up -- stock upb -- big shock up. >> the risk is rising, but we should be careful. >> the fed says don't worry about it. we are not concerned. this is a new paradigm. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. >> from new york city for our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance," live on bloomberg alongside tom keene. i'm jonathan ferro. lisa is out of the building and will be with us monday. equity futures positive .6%. it has been 12 months, more than 12 months that we have been in the same room. tom: you guys think we talk to each other when we are not around, this is the closest we

have been since you came back from come re--- from capri. for the team and all of us, it was emotional to enter the medically sealed room and have mr. ferro joined me. i'm looking at where we are on a friday. the biggest mail we got yesterday, we had the doctor yesterday, and the important comment was leader or leader. he emailed from cambridge and said it is litre and said we do not pronounce it like -- they do not been not to like we do. jon: let's just settle down. [indiscernible] tom: you got that right. jon: what is this? tom: futures of 25. it is a friday, and the big deal is retail. what is this all three ab stuff? i see a boom america. jon: it is month on month. if you look at the two year figures, compared to say 2019, look at where the spending is are now. bank of america spending that

data, a 20% move over the last two years. spending is there, but you are comparing a monster march to april. jon: yeah. francine: think about that -- tom: yeah. jon: think about that. tom: what i want to know is where we are from thursday last week. let's call it a taste from the jobs report, and thursday before the jobs were to now, we have barely gone anywhere. i take issue with the crater crushing, the dow is down not to percent, spx 2%, and nasdaq is a little more than it should be. jon: donald was 3% on the s&p 500. we will brush set aside? tom: i am. jon: why are you brushing that aside? tom: it is noise, and great distinction here, and this was caught nicely yesterday, his profitable companies are doing fine within the noise of the zoo, and it is the profitable companies that have cratered. jon: the likes of out -- of

apple and alphabet? tom: they have been fine. i'm talking about little numbers. jon: what about the disney numbers? tom: they were interesting. what is so fascinating is the netflix is the dominant piece. you look at the streaming issue, coming out of the pandemic, emily chang with that interview with their executive and disney is talking up the talk of recovery. we are mask free. jon: are you going to your mask? tom: i don't know. jon: since the start of november, the stock has had a massive move a massive move of 50% into year end. but now that stock has done nothing all year. tom: they've got the parks and all of that, disneyland, disney world. jon: doesn't the absence of this make it better? tom: absolutely, but how do you make it -- how do you know, if somebody is not wearing how do you know they are basket -- they are vexed again aided -- they are acts needed?

jon: we went to the building this morning, we have to wear a mask still? that applies to pretty much every single employee of corporate america going into the office today. jon: what do you do with your entourage? i came in with four people. tom: i came in with you and we both wore a mask, did not even challenge it. i wonder what that looks like for corporate america. they need to understand which employees are vaccinated and which are not. tom: is the same tension in london. the other theme, and this is so important, every day is jobs day. you look at amazon and mcdonald's yesterday, to me, it is not the wage, it is the number of bodies they are looking for. jon: yep. tom: to me, that is a huge number. jon: that is the most important development of the last week. corporate america has to reply to the huge demand and they going to pay up for it. that is the big change. let's get to the price action. we are shaping up as follows in

the s&p 500, headed toward the biggest weekly loss toward january. we advance 5.6%. a couple basis points to 163, call it 164, down to basis points on 30. a soft auction yesterday, this morning to 36 becoming two to three basis points. let's start the program with the sound that i think for a lot of people changed a lot, dr. rochelle walensky of the cdc. take a listen. >> anyone who is fully vaccinated can participate in indoor and outdoor activities, large or small, without wearing a mask or physical distancing. if you are fully vaccinated, you can start doing the things you had stopped doing because of the pandemic. we have all long for this moment. when we can get back to some sense of normalcy. jon: we are trying to get to normalcy here as well, but this

was the direction from the cdc, that i think a lot of people for a long time have been calling for, for the cdc to communicate to vaccinated people what they can and cannot do. i do not want new york's mayor telling me that if i get vaccinated i could get a free side of fries. this is what we needed. jon: the distinction -- tom: the distinction of what the doctor said was indoor as well. no masks outdoors and i get that, but i guess you will be indoors and be comfortable as well. i go again to how do you know the person three rows away from use vaccinated? jon: totally. tom: the story this week, this is beautifully on bloomberg radio, a basic idea of sports. you have san diego padres outs, new york yankees are [indiscernible] jon: fully vaccinated. [over talk] tom: who let them in the room? jon: they tested positive. fully vaccinated players. what is the story? tom: there will be some of that,

and the scientists will work that out. to me, the number one thing is governor cuomo and others nationwide want to get people in the stands. the players are really challenged by this. jon: we've gotta move forward. we bring the head of fx strategy to north america. what a week. in america, it is a different story. we carry on reopening, the cdc adjusted its mask mandate and you wake up to news from singapore. you see that playing out around the world. as you look around the global economy, how much dispersion or fragmentation is there, and how difficult is there to get a clean story to push through this affects market? >> i think it is very difficult indeed. there's a lot of dispersion in terms of exits from pandemic, and you highlighted that. there's also dispersion in terms of perceptions of monetary policy response. the fed is telling us they are taking a new approach. we have not heard their approach

articulated from most of the other central banks, so the market is unsure on how much divergence we might get in monetary policy, even though the u.s. is maybe ahead of the curve in escaping from covid. tom: we bring up singapore and i want to talk about pacific ring dynamics. i know we are talking about weak dollar and dollar stability pre-much through the week. what you glean on pacific rim dynamics whether it is all zero and me -- aussie renminbis. what is the dynamic seen across the pacific rim? daniel: [indiscernible] and global economies being driven by u.s. exit from covid restrictions. those economies are going to reflect that. europe is probably going to look a lot better in the second half of the year. i think a lot of markets are

coming around to the view that europe's recovery was delayed but it is coming. vaccination progress is better, much better in europe now, and europe is also going to be driving some of the global activity as well. that has helped the global exporter economies. jon: that story is not new for europe and well appreciated. we are seeing german bond yields inched toward 0% on a tenure majority, yet euro-dollar has struggled to break through 1.2 unsustainably. what do you make of the price action? daniel: i think it reaffirms that europe is different from the u.s. in a sense the central bank is unlikely to reprice the way the fed was repriced. the dollar did so well in -- the reason the dollar did so well one was this reprising a fed outlook. not this year, the fed is on hold, but for the back years. for the ecb, even if europe looks better, there is a lot of skepticism that you will see any move toward -- any exit from

negative rates. that makes it hard for the euro to get as much support from that recovery story as the dollar did last quarter. it does help relative asset performance, equity markets, things like that, but currency doesn't get much benefit. tom: good to hear from you. -- jon: good to hear from you. euro-dollar, 1.2128. a bit back and forth on this. i what point does a kick in for the ecb? on top of that, the bond market too. yields two inch back, not just on bonds. tom: i'm looking back to thursday, to the american economic data. euro pretty much stable but we are watching german yield. there were nine basis points from thursday, may--- may 6. we have had a yield moving toward flat and positive in the german tenure. at one point, it was 10 for

basis points. that is a big move. off american data, it is a better europe. jon: the message from the ecb is likely to be different than that from the federal reserve when you have the big patient cheddar yields -- big change on treasury yields. the federal reserve said this is consistent with the outlook and ok. i do not think you get that from the ecb. tom: jonathan ferro has real knowledge on this. what does lagarde do at the next meeting? is about asset and flows or interest-rate discussion? jon: i think it will be asset purchase discussion. tom: i agree. jon: around the dollar where it is are now, 1.21. tom: i agree. i have no idea what i'm talking about. jon: thank you for admitting that. cheers to that as well. is this enough to me? i think 10 to 11 minutes of this would be enough for me. tom: 10 to 11 minutes and we did not take transitory wants. jon: i want to do this slowly, a block at a time. so we do 10-11 minutes today and

then i move on. so i will go into the other room now. maybe on monday, i come back for a little more, then tuesday. tom: bring lisa with you. jon: from new york city, this is bloomberg surveillance live on bloomberg tv. tom: i can't stand this guy. go way. ♪ -- away. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the fighting between israel and the palestinians has taken a u-turn. israeli ground forces are firing artillery at targets in the gaza strip. israeli warplanes continued their own but bartman. meanwhile, still firing rockets into israel. more than 100 palestinians and several israelis have been killed. republican senators say they are encouraged about the chances for a deal infrastructure after meeting with president biden. one of the six republicans who went to the white house called

the discussion very productive. once at the president told him to come with their own proposal so he could react to it. the gasoline shortage in parts of the southeastern u.s. could drag on for a week or so according to one of north america was a biggest distributors. andy milton is mansfield energy saying now that the colonial pipeline is a business, the problem is a lack of trucks and drivers. taking diesel from distribution house to gas station. the u.k. may speed a vaccine doses and millions of people for the second us. oris johnson is anxious about the spread of a coronavirus spread from india. the number of cases from the new strain doubled in the u.k. in the last week. shares of disney are lower. the world's largest entertainment company attracting u.s. streaming customers raising fears a key company transformation may be losing some momentum. a lack of new programming on disney plus made it harder to

attract viewers. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on "bloomberg quicktake," powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> this cannot be open season before -- season for hackers who

can make off money even if they don't cause far as crippling the entity, as with colonial, they did not. jon: speaker pelosi there from new york city. i'm jonathan ferro. lisa will be back with us next monday. from new york city, it is the price action in. equity futures up 24 on the s&p 500. the bond market a bit, yields in a couple basis points on 10 to 163 point 35. euro-dollar, firm or, weaker dollar through all of g10. tom, briefly, crudest firmer, up .8%. tom: i would note bitcoin stability after fireworks yesterday. emily wilkins joins us, bloomberg government reporter. emily, we can speak of does and

what we have learned in the last 12 hours. the washington post uses the phrase as all out war looms. then we move up to what is clearly a serious issue between the 21% of arabs in israel on the streets of tel aviv and they are arresting unrest. is the northern border in the has below -- has below -- what is the damage -- dynamic on capitol hill? what have we learned from the quiet of the pentagon? emily: at this point, a lot of the response is coming from president biden and yesterday, he decided the israeli government response, the rocket attack, saying he had not seen it as an overreaction at this point. you have heard some members of congress speak on this. on this point, you are not seeing any major action from

congress on this particular point. i think, to a certain extent, they are looking toward the white house, seeing if and how president biden will move here and if there is a role to play. tom: i know you are a real student of this, what is the linkage of the trump administration and actions they took with israel to what we pick up with with the biden administration? i have not seen a good treatment on that. what is the dynamic from the trump/jerusalem/embassy discussion over where we are right now? emily: you're right. president trump made big moves there that were popular among his supporters, moving the embassy to drusilla him -- to jerusalem. that is not something president biden has touched. you saw president biden, for the most part, really try to put it away from the middle east, try to focus on china, say this is where our attention should be, where the bigger threat is

right now. the escalation of this fighting and how much we are seeing will be dragging the resident's attention to the middle east. it is such a contentious topic here in washington. there is no way he can avoid this one or turn a blind eye. i think attacks continue to escalate. tom: we gotta get to the sunday talk shows and you will hear those in the afternoon, that has proven popular. jonathan ferro, there is domestic issues as well. tom: and there are many -- jon: and there are many domestic issues right now. the colonial pipeline, the ransom, hijacking, the money they asked or, whatever you ask for, they got paid. how important is that? emily: to a certain extent, it shows it works. they wanted $5 million and that is the amount bloomberg has reported that they asked for and that they paid. they were able to get that amount. as you saw speaker pelosi point out in the clip you played a few minutes ago, that is a concern

for her as it is a concern for a number of members of congress. when i speak to members of congress, i asked a lot of them, were you surprised by the attack? almost everyone told me know, that they knew there were weaknesses within the system, they know this is an area the u.s. is behind on and needs to catch up on. so now, one of the big questions is are we going to see president biden's infrastructure plan include cybersecurity infrastructure, which is not in there right now, including something on the pipeline and oil, also not in there, and will congress see that as a big enough priority that they will cut other things out of the plan to make sure they are addressing this weakness in the u.s. insecurities. jon: to the republicans push for that this week in the talks they had with the president? emily: the republicans and president, there is still such early negotiations at this point. it's unclear if they will be getting to the point where they have the bill. this is something that has come

up in capitol hill in the white house in discussions, but i think there are very big questions about if a bill is possible. one of the hugest sticking points is everyone says they want to pay for the infrastructure bill, how do you do that? the biden administration has the tax plan. republicans said we are not doing that, we are not to making changes to watch we did for taxes in 2017. that is a real sticking points, and even though we see a lot of negotiations, it's not a clear path forward on how that one gets solved. tom: outward negotiations, are there actual negotiations? when does that -- is that a labor day reality before or after? emily: from individuals in congress who i have spoken with, everyone is tentatively optimistic. they say they get these negotiations, they are real, that the white house is doing the outreach they need to talk to republicans on these particular issues. to a certain extent, it is going

to be hard for president biden to keep his democrats together, particularly with what you have seen in the last week with the inflation, job numbers. there is sort of an incentive to try to carve something out with republicans here on infrastructure, the roads, bridges, and then of course debate on whether democrats will need to go it alone on items. tom: thank you -- jon: thank you. emily wilkins down in d.c. this was always going to be the harder bill to seal, the harder set of negotiations to get done. tom: it is. the policy here is simple, as republicans want more social -- that is an ancient american political debate. that goes back a long time. for our younger people watching and listening, this may be a surprise, but the interstate highway system with dwight eisenhower and republicans blocking it was affected by

democrats. that is the lore of the 1950's. why is this any different? jon: are you prepared to say the policy push has sold you -- has sold? tom: i'm not there yet, but did we waltz closer. it's a good question and i am unprepared to answer it on a friday because you left me. you are in the room -- were in the room with me and i'm so lonely right now. jon: what are you more comfortable with? tom: one of my more comfortable with? with lisa returning. jon: i will be more comfortable with that, too. do you feel uncomfortable with me being in the same room as you? tom: it's weird, seriously. coming out of the pandemic, we had people over the other night. for the first time in the year, we had people over to the mansion and it was really strange. everybody watching and listening, they all got drunk, but hey. tom: that's what happens when you go around as the king with

the -- king of the drink. i am familiar with that. your equity market up 25 on the s&p 500. we advance .6%, and coming into friday down 2.84%. i'm jonathan ferro alongside tom keene. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: from new york city -- jon: from new york city for already is worldwide, this is bloomberg surveillance on bloombergtv. equity features positive 25, call it. equities of .6%, the nasdaq up around one percentage point. as the rotation stalling? is there more to go? there's more runway for this rotation to continue. many of you share that view. we have seen a huge trading range over the last week or so. i say huge, 24 basis points to be precise. last friday, at the low, 146. the high yesterday, 170. we come in two basis points,

down about three. that is the bond market in the united states. that's get to the bond market of the south of europe and italy. at the lows of the year in february, south of 50 basis points. now north of 100 at 1.084%. that repricing gets your attention, my attention, a lot of people while attention, and i'm sure the ecb's attention as well. tom: in italy, about one third backed the pandemic yield and they are getting back to autumn early autumn of last year. a little different trajectory than what we see in germany. further prose, the german tenured -- 10 year yield, that is remarkable at this week. jon ferro and i wanted to shot -- stop the show on a friday and get away from the math. we will do the math and retail sales and all of that and talk about without question the social essay of the 10 days or two days.

carl tennenbaum is northern trust of chicago selected parchments out of the university of chicago in his leadership with the national association for business economics. carl tennenbaum, your essay on class struggle jumped out of the screen. what is different, and this comes from chicago, and everyone knows sinclair. what is the difference in the class struggle now that you see from chicago then it was pre-pandemic? carl: tom, good morning. i am glad you are reading those sorts of things. we did do math in grade school, and a lot of young people need to do math in grade school right now as the article focused on. school is at the center of a lot of things economically, certainly over the longer term. in the present day, the fact school's are largely closed, almost half of the schools in the united states remain closed to in person learning, that has a ripple effect through communities and families that is playing itself out in the labor

markets today. a number of parents are not comfortably able to get back to accept the job offers that seem to be proliferating in the service sector and may choose to wait until after the summer holiday is over before they make themselves available to the labor markets again. so many levels over such a long period of time, getting schools reopened is an important thing. tom: tom: do you see a change -- tom: you see a change in the federal state nexus for budgeting for childcare, schools, the social economics of a nation, or with the pandemic, is it just a one off and we go back to the budget structure we had pre-pandemic? could there be a shift to a more federal structure of service to mothers, children, to schools? carl: that will be for the congress to debate over the coming months. i will say we are behind other developed countries in the structure of our childcare system, which is as school is

essential, the parent's ability to offer them to their -- offer themselves to the labor force in parents in the labor force to continue upward on their trajectory, accumulating skills, remaining adaptive and the leaders we need to reach levels we want. right now, it is a patchwork of centers and in-home care poorly organized. we can bring a little sense to it. i think there would be returns economically and socially. tom: jon ferro, i look at oec data, and even the united kingdom is getting this better than we are, on day? tom: in terms of what -- jon: in terms of what? tom: childcare, school. jon: sure, it is a different system. tom: from where you sit seriously, should we shift more toward a european model? jon: i think that is for the electric to decide. and the politics in america, they have been incredibly

divided. the president wants to reflect the needs and demands of society and electorates, but they have skinny margins and congress to be making huge moves. you and i have been talking about this, can you make the move toward the european model. not for me to sit here to advocate for that. can you make a move toward the european model with margins they having congress? jon: carl, do you see that -- tom: carl, do you see that? carl: it will be hard to be honest with you. right now, education is the provocation of the state and they finance it in a number of different ways. what that leads to is the inequality of opportunity and asymmetric quality of education across the country. we cannot afford to lose a lot of minds if we are going to remain at the forefront of the global economy. i think whether it is federal standards or perhaps funding that moves us forward to a better place, i think that deserves careful consideration. jon: these are huge societal issues. the data of the morning's retail sales and there has been a conversation of whether savings rates in america and how

much it needs to go down. who holds that money and what degree do expect them to be deployed in the year ahead? carl: the estimates are we have $2.5 trillion of excess savings waiting to be spent. as you have hinted, that is contrary traded in higher income households that have a lower propensity to spend. we are transitioning from a spring bloom to a summer boom i think in spending. as things that were denied to us, entertainment, travel, restaurants, are now open and we have pent up demand with pent up demand with pent-up saving and reopening. that is creating quite any economic energy in the united states. the chances are the second quarter could be well over 10% in terms of real growth and we will go on words from there. tom: you're an expert at this, carl. you have led the nation on statistics for years. what is your q3/q4 look like to the hundreds of -- to the

hundreds of decimal point? carl: being honest with a sense of humor carries their forecast out to two decimal points at our third quarter is over age, our fourth quarter is in the range of seven, adding up to the best year of gdp since the early 1950's. tom: there is the most optimistic set i've heard from daniel katzive. 10 87 -- 10, 8, 7, do the math. lisa: trying to work out -- jon: trying to work out the amount of deceleration. put some numbers on this, going beyond what is in front of us right now, into 2022, 2023, seeing what the shape of the cycle looks like or if it is too premature to extrapolate to fark -- too far into quickly. carl: i think the momentum will dissipate into 2023. i think the growth number for two point -- 2022. the fiscal stimulus will wear

off even if we passed some of the biden plan. that is a 15 year window. in addition, you will have all of the energy released from pent-up demand. a few sectors might be holdouts but i think you will get to a normal level and that accounts for policymakers, are you creating a boom bust cycle here? have you laid the groundwork for a short surge or something more durable? i think that is, going back the congress comments, what could and can we do to make sure these next few quarters of success are not the only quarters of success? jon: 2.5 of 2020 to put you well below consensus. on the terminal right now on the bloomberg, 4% is the gdp call for 2022. what brings you down to 2.5%? carl: i think there's going to be a reduced physical impulse and demand. despite which a palace telling us, i think they are likely to taper their balance sheet program early in 2022 because

there is too much liquidity out there and it is finding its ways into place that might risk financial instability. jon: daniel katzive, of northern trust, the chief economist. you want to pick up on that? that is severe deceleration if you think we drop down to that. tom: a great respect for carl's leadership and the messiness of all of this, as he said earlier, he does not have a two. he is modeling 10, 8, seven, but we are making this up as we go. remember morgan stanley? they came out with 9, 10, and we are off the cliff in august. jon: for the bond market, this kind of thing matters. if what you are modeling is for this to continue somewhat, and i think anyone expect a repeat of 21 and 22, but deceleration, to that degree. tom: i start to worry about it. that's why am triple leveraged all-cash. jon:jon: that is why you standing cash? tom: i found a chart while you were talking to mr. tennenbaum.

i went to 2019 oecd, you now need -- united kingdom in their, london, france, way up on childcare. we are killing it with romania turkey. jon: what you want me to say? tom: there's nothing to say. it is an outrage. for those of you on radio and tv, everybody is living this in their own way, their own so proper, nannies, childcare, medical, the whole care. it permeates american society. jon: do you think we saw evidence of that in the labor market and let -- market in the last week? in the jobs report, in the participation rate? tom: there's no question about that. pros have said there is a female dynamic we are seeing in the recovery, but i would go to what we saw yesterday, and we did not have time to go to daniel katzive, maybe we will do it with alexander.

the big numbers today were 75,000 plus 10,000 at mcdonald was on restaurants. jon: i know we make mistakes sometimes and we get seduced by the idea people care about our personal thoughts, but when you think about europe and the rigidities of the labor market and amounts of reforms that have had to have been done over the last 10 years because it was not flexible enough in places like italy, places like spain, they are two extremes to this. i don't think anyone has the perfect model. tom: if we provide more appropriate childcare to get us to the middle tendency, do we risk becoming like the italian labor market? jon: not for me to say that we do, but in terms of politics, once you start something, you do not stop there. usually it moves on. it's not for me to say anything. it's evidence in the data. in participation rate, the female participation rate was down. most people assume because of a lack of childcare in this

country. someone with a political view, that is just the economic data speaking for self. jon: seer spain -- note line -- jon: i'm saying if they are fully employed and there on the staff, it is difficult to release the member of staff compared to say the united states of america. tom: ok. jon: did we get past that? tom: can you come back in the room here? jon: i will think about it for the next hour. tom: have your people talk to my people. jon: let's try to work something out. futures up .6%. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i am ritika gupta. israeli warplanes have been joined by ground forces in their attack in the gaza strip. tanks and artillery are firing into gaza from the israeli side of the border. hamaz militants continue launching rockets into israel. more than 100 people have been

killed in gaza and seven in israel. the city see is signaling a return to everyday life in the ash the cdc is signaling a return to everyday life in the u.s.. -- the cdc is signaling a return to everyday life in the u.s. the biden to ministration making clear the incentive is for people to get the vaccination. the long-awaited quarantine-free travel agreement between hong kong and singapore was in doubt. it was due to begin may 26 but it may not go ahead because of rising coronavirus cases in singapore. the travel bubble was set to begin last november. kansas city southern will accept a revised 33 point $6 billion takeover from containing an national -- from canadian national railroad. they will have until may 21 to come up with a higher bid. it's a real network that stretches across canada, the u.s., and mexico. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on "bloomberg quicktake," powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.

♪

as bang someone with a mask you, you see them with kindness and respect.

we have had too much bitterness, too much anger, too much politicization of wearing masks. let's put it to rest. let's remember we are all americans. jon: the president of the united states, from new york city, good morning. i'm jonathan ferro. lisa abramowicz will be back with us monday. price action, equity futures are up .6% advancing 24 points. into the bond market with yields lower by couple basis points, 163.52. dollar weaker through much of g10 and this morning, 1.2108. up .9% on wti. $64 and about $.40. -- $64.40. tom: we go to retail sales and see how that moves markets on friday. this is barn on an important conversation and more important from what we heard from cdc yesterday.

i page d from johns hopkins, [indiscernible] it is about zeta proteins and something called cd3 zeta. look at the wikipedia on t cell receptors and you will go, oh. she joins us from the hunter for self -- for health security at johns hopkins. doctor. -- doctor, i want to cut to the chase. i will be in a restaurant, my mask is off. how do i know somebody is not vaccinated, and what does it mean in the immunology in the restaurant? >> you don't know everybody is vaccinated. by fully vaccinated you mean two weeks after your final does, and you could be exposed if community transmission is high. with your vaccine, you are able to fight that off. tom: but the whole family does not have magazines.

somebody under 12, maybe an infant. are you kidding me? on a game theory bases with all of your expertise in t cell receptors, great, is this actually gonna work? >> i'm not going to take my unvaccinated 11-year-old inside of a restaurant at this time. that is the case, but i have less concerns about myself and my 13-year-old who i took to get vaccinated yesterday once he is fully vaccinated. some people have to make decisions based on their own circumstances. it is just it will be safer for the people in the restaurant, working the restaurant if they are vaccinated for sure. it'll be safer for everyone who gets a vaccine. jon: this is already a difficult decision for parents, they are trying to work out to what degree their children are at risk from this virus. we have better answers now? gigi: children do get sick. people have, just not in

comparison to adults, adults have had worse outcomes when it comes to covid then kids. when you look at the numbers, 22 million children have gotten sick from covid and, if you look at the rates of hospitalization, it is worse than h1n1 flu in 2009 for kids. by comparison, it is not as bad as adults, but kids do get sick. they still need to take precautions. if they are 12 or over, they should be vaccinated. jon: if they are 12 or under, how long does this go under, the children of this country and the children around the world -- for the children of this country and around the world? gigi: everyone things maybe august/september we will start opening up to being able to vaccinate younger kids. tom: axios published moments ago , micah doing a great job over there, and doctor, they take this been with what we're doing with cdc and call it liberation

day. is it? dr. gronvall: i didn't find wearing a mask to be that inconvenient. i saw it as a way of being courteous to other people, but it has become obviously a polar is it -- polarized issue. tom: let's go to the realities of what we see in the hospitals as well. how will this change for the hospital workers still courageous in the hospitals? dr. gronvall: i think, hopefully, the community transmission will go down so they will have more resources to tend to the patients they have. i think that we need to do more to bring vaccines to people. a lot of essential workers, not in the hospitals, but other places cannot afford to take the time off to get vaccinated, so we still have access issues in this country. jon: thank you for your time. dr. gigi gronvall.

john hopkins center for the senior scholar. a lot of people eager to get on with their lives and reclaim their lives now, get rid of the masks, get vaccinated, but corporations need to respond. there's a lot of work that needs to be done. tom: we will celebrate this like everyone else. john, you tell me, my idea of deeper new york is to get below 72nd street. it is a sheltered life. jon: downtown is busy on the weekend. tom: and it is almost giddy. it is like we are all back and that is great. you have the doctor there talking about serious issues. jon: there is a degree of excitement but i do not think we should forget there will be a long hangover from this and mental health issues will be top of the pile i think. for a lot of people, they will not pay able to adapt to that quickly because of what has happened over the last year. tom: it is weekend by weekend.

getting back to the markets, i got a look at nasdaq up 1%. i'm using eight days as a marker before the jobs report. nasdaq, -4.2 percent on futures. the vix is coming back 27 down to 21 handle. we are halfway or two thirds back. jon: the s&p is doing better, up. the biggest weekly drop since january or the start of the year , two to three percentage points? tom: this is not a question i would ask you in the same room together but i can do it from a distance, do you think the economists will recalibrate their gdp call after this retail report? jon: i think they will have to wait. tom: i think they do. it is a huge part of the economy. jon: i agree with that, i just do not think you can make a year's call off of that. tom: you can tweet this quarter and get into q3.

jon: you think it will bring it in a little bit? tom: i don't know. jon: that's what i'm trying to gauge by this. -- gauge what you mean by this. tom: i'm thinking we have got to pay attention through friday night when we have a beverage of our chores into the weekend for gdp changes from the major houses. jon: where are we going tonight? what is the major plan? tom: i'm thinking artichoke ravioli. jon: artichoke ravioli? tom: so the helicopter is free. jon: what is the beverage of choice this evening? tom: haven't decided yet. francine did a beautiful thing on champagne in london. tom: that was a great -- jon: that was a great interview. tom: it was a great interview. jon: i've never heard of that? tom: madonna gave it to me. jon: the sheet still live on the -- does she still live on the upper eastside? tom: she does. jon: retail sales about an hour 30 way. i don't think i'm ever allowed back in that room again.

that was fun for 10 minutes. equities up .6% of the s&p 500. bond market. i'm jon ferro. this is bloomberg. ♪

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♪ >> there are structural changes going on in the economy. it becomes very difficult for economists to forecast with any degree of accuracy. >> know, we are not done with the adjustment to a shock. big shot down, big shock up. >> the equity market is telling you there are inflation fears all over the place for investors. >> we should be careful about jumping to extreme conclusions. >> the fed says don't worry about it. this is a new paradigm. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro. lisa abramowicz will be back with us on monday. we advance on the nasdaq by 0.9%. it