>> there are structural changes going on in the economy. it becomes very difficult for economists to forecast with any degree of accuracy. >> know, we are not done with the adjustment to a shock. big shot down, big shock up. >> the equity market is telling you there are inflation fears all over the place for investors. >> we should be careful about jumping to extreme conclusions. >> the fed says don't worry about it. this is a new paradigm. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro. lisa abramowicz will be back with us on monday. we advance on the nasdaq by 0.9%.

it is a snapback, and any dips are being bought again. citigroup saying it is too early to give on the root -- to give up on the recovery trade. buy into any short-term dip. is that what we just got? tom: we saw some resets of spx. there's a few people under 4000 for year end. everybody's got an opinion. here's my opinion. most important equity strategy headlines of the week came from mcdonald's, chipotle, and the rest for rising wages. jonathan: agreed. tom: i'm not concentrating because you are not sitting with me in the room. but it's a number of bodies, and for small business, 25 people they need to hire, they can't get them. jonathan: most important data of the week, job openings in america. i know the focus was on cpi. all-time highs on job openings in america since records began. you've got to attract the

workers. you need supply to meet the demand. the price needs to adjust. tom: good morning. the quantitative drift of claims is beautiful. it is elegant, and it is a very constructive chart for america to a lesser claims statistic. jonathan: things need to get much better. we are 90 minutes away from the retail sales printed america. here's the price action. we are up 0.6%. in the bond market, yields coming in a couple of points after a sneak peek of 1.70% in yesterday's session. dollar weakness the theme this morning. euro-dollar, $1.2111. crude bouncing back with that dollar weakness a little more than 1%. tom: i really study this this morning to see if the unrest in israel, gaza, even the rivers of the northern border of israel

was affecting -- the rumors of the northern border of israel was affecting that. you look at seo one commodities. we got them all here. i just don't see that dynamic. jonathan: i don't either, but we will head to d.c. to get a view from washington and how the administration will respond. tom: we will have to see on that. emily wilkins was quite good on that in the last hour. we have a wonderful guest here to drive forward what do we do next. jonathan: let's start with david lebovitz, j.p. morgan asset management global market strategist. have we got this one baked in? david: i do think there is still room for the recovery in more cyclical and value-oriented trades to run here. our base case view is that we are going through a period where rates are consolidating, but there's likely another leg higher during the second half of this year. our base case view is that as

the economy continues to open backup, as inflation expectations continue to move higher, that should support another leg in the recovery trade, but arguably by the time you get to the end of 2021, slower growth is likely coming into view, and that would support a rotation back in the growth. jonathan: what kind of deceleration are you expecting going into next year? we caught up with northern trust, looking for a move back to 2.5%. that is below consensus. what are you looking for? david: a lot of the forecasts are between 4% and 5%. 2.5% feels a little low based on our expectations. i do think we are going to get a pretty sizable infrastructure package later on this year. while that is a longer duration spend at a fairly long burn, i do think it helped prop up growth more in 2022 and arguably into 2023. so we would be in the more 3% to 4% range for growth next year,

but really decelerating beyond. we are having this surge in economic activity right now, and that is still reading through to the companies that were hit hardest, and it is not going to continue forever more. tom: i love in your research note when you talk about the inflation element. to me, the change this week is not $15 an hour, but people whispering $16 and $17 an hour as the wage inflation elephant. that gets me to something i have never framed before. i don't want to get gloomy here, but can i say a cost push powell is something we may have to consider, where the fed has to look at cost push inflation? david: i think it is a reasonable expectation because you are really seeing two things go on right now. on the one hand, you are seeing commodity prices.

they have come off the boil a little bit, but input prices continue to move higher. then you have this whole issue of wages. it is really interesting because you look at earnings estimates for next year, people are looking for 15%, 20% earnings growth on the back of what we think will be almost 50% earnings growth this year, but nobody is talking about the fact that profit margins are at all-time highs. if we do see the wage growth i think is going to materialize, it is going to make inflation stickier, and it is going to be a problem. tom: you take the wages and issues of the income statement to better revenue with a boom. you go to a better nominal gdp, and the question really becomes is inflation bad for stocks. am i right that it is an ambiguous concept that we don't know? david: i think that is a fair assessment of it. people talk about stocks can be ok if rates rise for the right reason. what are the "right reasons?" what i really think is most important for the equity market

is what the fed is saying and what inflation expectations are doing. i would not fret about a very robust cpi print this past week. i would focus on the fact that inflation and occasions were actually pretty well behaved in the aftermath of that, and that is part of why stocks have found their footing. we have pulled forward expect asians for fed tightening, but still expectations are not that inflation is going to be a longer-term problem. but if you see those expectations become unhinged, that is when equities are going to begin to stumble. jonathan: as labor pressures continue to build in america, we haven't really had this story for a long time in this country, and there are some companies that have managed to get away. i won't use the word exploit, but they have gotten away by having access to a very cheap labor pool. can you say that is going to be the case any longer? david: it is not necessarily news to anybody, income has been flowing to capital rather than labor for the better part of a

decade. it is a combination of a government that is a little more progressive in their thinking, and companies that recognize the need to incentivize workers to get off the couch and come back into the labor force. i do think we will see higher wages here, and we need to remember that it is very difficult to take a wage increase away. i do think that wage growth could be a little bit stickier, and margins are the big story for me when it comes to 2022. i think you still want to lean into the financials. i think there's a really positive story there about rising rates, and furthermore, the ability to resume or accelerate ipaq programs and increased dividends. i think industrials continue to look interesting because arguably, very robust growth in the united states should spill over into the rest of the world, and that more synchronized global growth story i think will have legs during the first part of 2022. but it is really about owning

growth and renting value, and again, we will be back in the environment we are in for the post gse expansion -- we were in for the post-gfc expansion. small caps, mid-caps tends to be more correlated with value. think the small-cap trade as a little bit more of a rental right now, but my view is that mid-caps, that is the sweet spot of the equity markets. they haven't yet made it into the large cap space, where we know inefficiency can become a problem. so i am kind of an all weather mid-cap guy come about it do think -- mid-cap guy, but i do think the smoke cap trade will peter out next year. jonathan: david lebovitz, j.p. morgan global market strategist. own growth, rent value. tom: it's a big strategy here. doug kass is particularly

articulate on this. it is not for us to say, but it is something that everybody watching and listening needs to understand. it is the durability of the trade. with one stock, say amazon, do you rent amazon at a given point, or are you going to own it forever? jonathan: it is a cycle call, isn't it? if you believe in the northern trust world, deceleration to 2.5%, then david's point makes sense. tom: you bring up the heart of the matter, which is you have to use your economics to construct the cycle belief to get to what you do within the stock market as a simplistic idea, and across bonds, currencies, commodities as well. jonathan: how willing will you be to pay up for it? tom: i am only saying this because you are in another room. if you were in the same room with me, it would be too personal. jonathan: we don't want to get personal. is that what we want, this distance? are we going to maintain this all year? tom: that's a pretend shot,

folks. it is like leon cooperman with the turks and caicos buy or whatever. i'm actually at my house up north, the summer place. what is important to understand is my belief that corporations adapt and adjust. every cycle up and down, there's a miss underestimation about how executives adjust to how cards are dealt. jonathan: and those corporations this morning have to wake up and work out what they do with this mask mandate and the shift we have seen. dr. fauci on msnbc saying the guidelines are a major step towards normality. tom: i am going to weigh in with mcdonald's on 3rd avenue, where i am scheduled to have lunch. what do they do? they need more help. jonathan: are you making a mask point or a labor point? tom: both. i think they are linked. jonathan: i agree. tom: you've mitch'-- you miss lisa so much you can't talk to me this morning? you know what it is, we need a

banner. jonathan: what do you want the banner to be? tom: the pendulum of inflation is where we are right now. jonathan: just jarring being in a room with you and then not being in a room with you. tom: on radio, we don't miss lisa, but it is a pendulum of inflation. [laughter] jonathan: i do. speak for yourself. equities up 26 on the s&p. we advanced 0.6%. i think we are getting on ok. tom: that's the point. we are doing just all right, that's all. jonathan: how much better do you want to get along? tom: we could do the whole next hour in this room and probably get along. jonathan: this is bloomberg. tom: i am just over the black eye that you gave me. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the fighting between israel and the palestinians has taken a new turn. israeli ground forces are now firing artillery at targets in the gaza strip. israeli warplanes continued their own bombardment.

meanwhile, hamas militants are still firing rockets into israel. more than 100 palestinians and seven israelis have been killed. the gasoline shortage in part of the eastern and southeastern u.s. could drag on for a week or so, according to one of north america's biggest distributors. now that the colonial pipeline is back in business, the problem is a lack of trucks and drivers needed to take gasoline and diesel from distribution hubs to gas stations. amazon is extending its hiring spree. it plans to hire 10,000 more people in the u.k. by the end of the year to employ 50,000 people in britain. new jobs will be in corporate offices as well as in web services and operations. dogecoin jumped on renewed support from tesla ceo elon musk. that adds to a volatile week for

cryptocurrencies whipped up largely by musk himself. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

pres. biden: i had a brief conversation with him yesterday.

one of the things i have seen thus far is that there has not been a significant overreaction. the question is how we get to a point, how they get to a point where there is a significant reduction in the attacks, particularly rocket attacks that are indiscriminately fired into population centers. jonathan: the first big foreign policy test for the president of the united states in his first term. alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro. lisa abramowicz will be back with us after the weekend. are you off next monday? tom: am i? i don't know. jonathan: in the bond market, yields come in a couple of basis points on the 10 year to 1.64%. in the commodity market, fixed

he $4.64 on wti. i know there's a bit of deal move -- $64.64 on wti. i know there's a bit of deal news you want to focus on. tom: canadian pacific and canadian national are competitive, and they are going down the mississippi river to kansas city southern. a higher bid by canadian national. last night, ks you takes that offer -- last night, kcs takes that offer. jonathan: i might try to explain it a little more so simply. kansas city southern intends to accept a revised merger author from canadian national, but will give canadian pacific until may 21 to come up with a higher bid. tom: you nailed it. jonathan: that's the word of thomas black and the team.

i'm just reading it. tom: i caught up with lou, at ubs with luke kawa at -- with luke kawa at ubs. there's any wants their. let me bring in ben bain in washington. i do want to bring up what actually links in with the illinois railroad pickup by canadian national a decade ago. it is about the heartland of this nation. that's what those two canadian real words are arguing about, the mississippi river and the pass down to mexico. does the heartland of this nation lie in infrastructure? ben: if you look at what is going on right now, there's arches lined up past the mississippi river. i think there is a genuine sense that the infrastructure in this country needs a revamp, it needs a refresh.

also, people want jobs. i think if you are talking about roads and bridges and highways, that brings jobs. tom: how much social infrastructure can president biden give up to appease the middle part of the democratic party and that heartland infrastructure need? ben: that is ultimately the question. he and the democrats have defined infrastructure in a much broader way than republicans have. really at the heart of this argument, there's two things. one is how it is going to get paid for. the other is what is infrastructure. republicans are saying it is just roads, bridges, highways, and broadband. democrats are saying you also need to take care of older people, you need to do childcare, things they consider social infrastructure. it is going to be interesting. we are going to have to see how far biden and his team are willing to move to strip out some of those things to get some republican support. jonathan: do we understand what

the redlines for this administration actually are? i understand the concept of redlines is something a lot of people don't appreciate. the republicans have said their redline is tax cuts by the trump administration. what is the redline for this administration? ben: i don't think we know yet. after this week, you heard some optimism from republicans after meeting with the president and his team, so there seems to be at least publicly the perception being put out there by republicans that this administration is willing to move, willing to get some of those potentially social infrastructure ideas and may be willing to strip things down, look at different ways of funding this. we don't have a redline yet. that is probably part of the strategy here. ultimately, this is the white house's plan, and they probably don't want all of their cards on the table at this point. i suspect as this moves along, as we get into the summer months

, as we really see these talks heat up in the pressure to really get something done potentially in a bipartisan way, we will see that redline. when we do, there's going to be a moment when it is either going to have to be the democrats pushing ahead through that reconciliation quirk where they have to keep everyone, joe manchin, etc. on board and get it through that way, or if they are going to do something more bipartisan, which there does seem to be a genuine desire to do at this point. jonathan: do you get the sense that things have stalled a little bit, or is that too premature? ben: i think they are quieting down a little bit on various fronts, but i think everything we have seen this week in washington is part of the broader conversation. you talk about the colonial pipeline, that is infrastructure. barges stalled on the mississippi river, the heartland of this country, those are examples that infrastructure is in the conversation. this conversation has been going on for decades. it is no secret that this country's infrastructure is

behind. tom: cut to the chase here, quickly. is this just about cork? we will spend june -- about pork? we will spend june, july, august allocating the pork to make every buddy happy? ben: there's definitely going to be projects, and things in there that are going to have to be reached. ultimately, if you are going to have a situation, either biden and the white house are going to have all democrats on board, and that means making all of his party happy, or it is going to mean giving the republicans something they want, and that inevitably is going to involve insuring that representatives from these various places around the country are getting the projects and the programs that they want. you can call it pork, call it whatever you want, but certainly this is not going to be just a simple we are building some roads and bridges across the board. there's going to be lots of different ways every

representative make sure their district is getting what they want. jonathan: ben bain down in d.c. the essence of a good negotiation, when you come out the other side of it, everyone should have something they are unhappy about. tom: sounds like the morning "surveillance" meeting to me. jonathan: our morning meeting that last about 60 seconds? tom: that's the one you and i go to. what you don't see is the planning. jonathan: i'm well aware. and for good reason, they push us to one side. tom: they leave us out of the meeting, but there's incredible issues about when do we say the pendulum of inflation. jonathan: the pendulum of inflation or the pendulum of doom? tom: it can be either one, but the pendulum of inflation was a 20 minute discussion with lisa. she called in. jonathan: looking forward to seeing what she has to say about that. tom: can i be honest, across the coast and worldwide? jon and i miss lisa's gloom.

jonathan: we do. and we had a selloff this week. she would have enjoyed that. up 0.6% on the s&p 500, yields in a basis point on the 10 year, 1.64%. on radio, on tv, this is bloomberg. ♪

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♪ jonathan: let me get myself together this morning. from new york city, this is bloomberg. equities up 27 on the s&p, up about 0.6%. the nasdaq advancing a little more than 1%. the story of the week, lower into friday, the biggest weekly loss on the s&p 500 since about january. you often joke about i need to find an entry point. i always think it is interesting to thing about that concept. , when you -- tell me when you have real 20/20 hindsight that there was one. i've got no idea. it is growth on sale? some people have made that point over the last week. tom: they have. we had a good conversation there on the mega caps. as everyone knows, i make a big joke about this and we love to

play on triple leveraged, there's been ton of research on this in what is called the lognormal space. it is really hard to get back in when you get out. if you decide to get out of the game, how do you get back in? when do you get back in? on position sizing, how much of it? how much do you put back in when you get back in? those are all really serious issues. jonathan: that is why i always find it uncomfortable and people talk about the easy money being made. there's nothing easy about it. it only looks easy when you look back. that's the equity market. here's your bond market. twos-tens 30's -- twos, tens, 30's shaping up as follows. the lower end of the range in friday's session. dot to see the print one hour from now. the high of the year, 1.7 4%

into the back end of march. intraday, 1.70% yesterday. is your fx market. euro-dollar, a bit of dollar weakness out there today. euro-dollar right now, $1.2113. do you know what the year-end median forecast is? where we are right now. fxfc. you can check it out right now. stronger euro on the session. there's a lot to discuss. he is remain. -- here is romaine. tom: the two most entertaining guys --romaine: the two most entertaining guys on television here. [laughter] disney did miss a bit on earnings come about what we heard yesterday on bloomberg television, there's a sort of reason why he's upbeat. disney parks starting to get

back up and running. there are going -- they are going to be a little bit cautious with that reopening, but there is a pathway here not only for parks, but also for the studio business. keep in mind that tv business also held up well. tom: you're killing it, and you did great yesterday with the gentleman from disney. got moffat nathanson -- we've got moffettnathanson coming up on this. did they miss because of "mena lori and -- of "mena lori and -- of "mandalorian" season to? romaine: i think that's kind of what they saw. pipeline slowed down, and they saw a drop here about 6 million people. that is not huge for disney. this is a juggernaut. this has also been a company

solely dependent on streaming the way that -- company not solely dependent on streaming the way that netflix is. we will see how it flows into other properties. that it's going to be a big read here on the reopening. those shares down 4% in the premarket. another part of the reopening trade is doordash. those shares up 9%. shares tripling in the most recent quarter, but that came etter hughes cost -- came at a huge cost. what is the sustainable growth rate post-pandemic for doordash, and is that going to be done at a profitable level here? also in the macro space is plantronics, a headphone maker. sales very hurt by the chip shortage. they made it clear, going forward, sales are dependent on some right siding in that space. the cryptocurrency space is managing to rebound a little bit here. i knew you were worried, tom, but square higher here.

coinbase also higher. transaction volumes doing well. the company giving a pretty decent forecast for those transactions. crypt is higher this morning including -- cryptos higher this morning including going and ethereum. fisk are -- fisker higher on some big news from hon hai. tom: right now, joining us from nomura, lewis alexander. we are thrilled he could join us to wrap up an economic week. i want to rip up the script is all of your heritage at stanford and yale, and that is the cost push inflation, the engine -- the ancientness of pricing power and the american corporation. is the corporation now, with its

power of technology, its power over labor, do we need to worry about pricing power? or is that a thing from the past? lewis: i think what you are seeing right now is in those areas where things have been disrupted, there is some pricing power. but i don't think it is very broad across the economy. yes, we have seen some evidence that you can push things out, but when you look at it more broadly at things like consumer prices that look at the whole distribution which you see as price increases have been very concentrated in some areas. we had a big demand in an environment there we got some significant constraints on supply. but i don't think at this point that is signaling a broader problem. if it gets into inflation expectations, we have a problem. but so far that has not happened

in a big way. jonathan: going forward from here, i have a quote from bank of america here. "big and repeated one time jumps in prices build a foundation for sustained inflation." can you walk me through that conceptually, how these big one time jumps ken lay a foundation for more sustained inflation -- one time jumps can lay a foundation for more sustained inflation? lewis: if you see those on a regular basis, that will give the prophets a mena mom. one important thing we will get today is the michigan survey for the month of may, which has been in one of our long-term surveys for inflation expectations. if that goes up in a material way, that will be the biggest

red flag we have had about the outlook for inflation going forward. i do think there is a fundamental question of whether or not this surge in inflation is going to add momentum to inflation going forward through that process. that to me is the most important question. i think that is the most important question for the fed. you heard, for example, clarida this week talking about the importance that he places on this new measure they have of inflation expectations. that is the place to look for this to become embedded. there's no question that we got in a very rapid growth at a time when there are some constraints on supply. you saw that in the last employment report. that is pushing up prices. but the question is, does it have momentum? for that to happen, i think you really need to see it in inflation excitations. jonathan: do you think there's a risk about trying to be too

smart about reading the data, when ultimately what matters is inflation expectations, price expectations for people that live and breathe every day, don't come on shows like this and have the data when it comes at 8:30 in a given month? lewis: i think that is right. to a certain extent, it doesn't matter what we all think. what matters is businesses and consumers who decide what they are going to buy, and workers who make choices about what sort of jobs they will take, all of those things are things that ultimately drive inflation. like the sense that all of those folks have, how much do they need to see their prices and wages go up to make it make sense for them is the thing that is going to decide whether or not the spike drives things up.

some of these are clearly things that are not going to last. for example, the chip shortage that has constrained the supply of cars is not something i suspect we will be talking about six to 12 months from now. that is not going to be the thing pushing inflation up. the rise in airfares and lodging prices that were such a big part of the cpi, again, obviously, those prices are going to go up sharply for a while. again, six to 12 months from now, i doubt that is the thing that we are going to be talking about. but if this gets embedded, if what we saw was cpi starts to affect the way workers and businesses think about what they should expect going forward, that is the thing that will give this some momentum. jonathan: got to leave it there. lewis alexander, nomura chief u.s. economist. retail sales in about 50 minutes' time.

i know you look at the control group. we are looking for -0.2% for the month of april. tom: what i see is a boom economy. carlton above mentioned that. i talk about the academics, got to agree a new member of our team out of the university of oxford -- we got to greet a new member of our team out of the university of ox or -- the university of oxford. his degree was in the philosophy of tele-prompting. [laughter] four years at oxford. jonathan: can we scroll to the next bit? thanks, kieran. [laughter] we are going to talk about the walt disney company next. thank you.

we appreciate that. people think we are joking, tom. from new york city, this is bloomberg. tom: it's friday. ♪ ritika: with the first word news , i'm ritika gupta. israeli warplanes have now been joined by ground forces in their attacks on hamas targets in the gaza strip. tanks and artillery are firing into gaza from the israeli side of the border. hamas militants continue to launch rockets into israel. so far, more than 100 people have been killed in gaza and seven in israel. the cdc is signaling a broad return to everyday life in the u.s. the agency says fully vaccinated americans can get rid of their masks in most settings, even indoors or in large groups.

the biden adminstration is making clear that the guidance is a further incentive for people to get the vaccination. bloomberg has learned that the group of rich government creditors known as the paris club is willing to delay a 2.4 billion dollar debt payment from argentina this month. that is if the country meets certain conditions, potentially averting a damaging default. the paris club is hoping argentina can rework a $14 billion agreement with the international monetary fund. former treasury secretary larry summers says he is now even more concerned about inflation then he was. summers spoke to bloomberg's david westin for "wall street week." >> it is faster, much sooner than i had predicted, and i think that has to make us nervous going forward. ritika: you can watch all of that interview with larry summers on "wall street week" today at 6:00 new york time on

bloomberg tv. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ >> the cdc's guidance in terms of relaxation of the mask requirement, we think it is going to be a big catalyst for growth and actually being able to put the number of people in our parks that we are more accustomed to, so it is very positive. our future bookings are looking really great. they are already back up fiscal year 2019 levels. jonathan: bob chapek, the disney ceo. alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro.

lisa abramowicz will be back with us monday. on the s&p 500, we advanced 0.7%. in the bond market, yields lower to 1.6386%. euro-dollar, $1.2121. wti, $64.64, up 1.28%. we get to the walt disney company. we trade lower in the premarket, down a little more than 4% off the back of the streaming business. subscriptions coming in just a little bit lighter than expected. tom: we are thrilled to bring you craig moffett and igo nathanson, -- and michael nathanson, moffettnathanson. they are distinguished in what they do. michael nathanson, let's get to you first. how much did disney and mr.

chapek miss baby grogu? [laughter] michael: they missed by about five to 6 million subs, and that really matters. unfortunately, that is what happened in stock trades the way it does. tom: it is a battle out there. craig, you have but doing this for years, particularly the cabling of it, the routing of it. what is the theme for you right now into the summer in the streaming wars? craig: as much as the streaming wars dominate the video side of it, the companies that i cover, especially at&t and verizon, you can talk about media for them if you want, but fundamentally it is about the wireless business. while streaming is sort of a benefit that they give away for free, the real battle is going to be on networks, capital investment, and 5g. tom: we don't have time now for

a treatment on verizon, but are the traditional companies that you follow done pretending that they can be the companies that michael nathanson follows? craig: not entirely. at&t is making a good go of it for hbo max, for example. the problem is all of hbo combined is less than 4% of at&t, so while it is a good story, fundamentally it's got to be about other businesses for them. jonathan: michael, i am trying to work out why the walt disney company has done nothing all year. the stock has done nothing after a huge move into year-end. michael: we had those two huge moves, and it went to a level that you had to do a lot of price multiples to justify where it was. everyone had a chance to buy it at the investor day. they did. they were not buyers at that level. we were neutral on the stock. we thought it had overshot

valuations. now it is going to grind lower, and there will be some point where we are constructive on it, but we had a hard time looking at some of the parts. we are earnings and cash flow analysts. we thought, let's just wait for a better entry point. jonathan: let's talk about what drives that better entry point. what do you think is a catalyst for a move lower from here? michael: i think some of the air coming out of the valuation on disney+. people were using 10 times revenues on 2025 to get to a disney+ number. 1/3 of the subscriber base comes from india, so you need to be cautious on how quickly you want to give it netflix status on valuations. that has been our point. i think it is just more focus on what is the valuation. it has been a great story, but certainly not worth $200 billion today. tom: we spend all of our time

with michael nathanson because it is time to -- it is romantic to talk about disney and all of that. i'm going to craig moffett on the boredom of my phone bill and all of that. does t-mobile continue to crush american cell phone competitors? craig: flat answer, yes. this is a company that has been priced 15% below at&t and verizon in their consumer prices for self and surface for years -- for cell phone service for years, in large part because their service was not as good. now we are going into 5g, where they will have the best network of the three of them. these worst to first stories are very rare, and when you find them they are very exciting. tom: can they sustain that? can they stay first? michael: telecom cycles -- craig: telecom cycles are not

one or two years long. you don't build a network out and someone passes you a year or two later. these are 10 or 20 years cycles, so this is going to last well more than a decade, where t-mobile takes a sustainable early advantage and likely holds it for a decade. they are 10 years into this cycle already and they've got another 10 years in front of them. tom: michael nathanson, i guess everybody is still chasing netflix. they got the huge success, "mank," "the queen's gambit," the rest of it. do they still have enough in the pipeline to keep the rest away? michael: they are going to come back with a ton of content in the second half of this year, and they put a lot of emphasis on big movies. you are going to see some major blockbusters coming from them

that you would've thought were theatrical releases that will be on the flex. -- on netflix. towards the fall, you start seeing that, what you described as previous hits coming back, but you have a period now where hbo max is probably going to take a lot more share just because they have theatrical release movies going on hbo max day and date. so we have a bit of a slow period before it picks up again in the fourth quarter. jonathan: michael, i wonder whether we are reaching that point where people look around at the cost of all of these streaming businesses and just say, i'm not doing this anymore. 15 pound here, 20 pound there, 10 pounds here, $10, $15, and they just say, no more. i'm done. because we have been talking about competition, and i notice the netflix miss, the walt disney subscribers miss. is something brewing here? craig: yes, jon -- michael: yes, jon. you had a year of a major pull

forward. we are doing this from zoom. you've been stuck at home. you are streaming, not doing anything else but streaming. thank god we are getting out of our house. when the world opens up, i think people will look at their bills and reassess, so we think streaming wars will pick up, but also streaming consumer adoption will slow the next couple of quarters. so we have not recommended netflix and disney. those were great trades last year. we are more cyclical. that has been the call, we think it is the right call, but your point is right. as consumers change their spending behavior, some of those streaming services will see higher churn or less adoption. jonathan: so facebook, those kind of names? michael: facebook, google, snap. doesn't everyone recommend them? they are still really attractive stocks given the growth outlook. tom: unfortunately, i think this

goes to michael. craig, sorry about that. the english football super league uproar, what does that mean for the millions of dollars negotiated for this strange game called soccer? michael: that's a great question -- that's a craig question. craig: the premier league just renewed with a flat contract. in fact, they didn't even open it up to bidding and the u.k., so they renewed with sky so it stays on. i think probably, that works well because i don't know that they needed the extra publicity. there's a lot of animus over the whole super league debacle, and a lot of unhappy fans that still have a bad taste in their mouth. jonathan: craig, i couldn't agree with you more. michael: ironically, although football prices in europe are

flattening, and america the prices keep going up. our market is really primed for multisport in a way that others aren't. jonathan: craig, we didn't get to talk much. sorry about that. [laughter] we give michael all the airtime. we got to leave it there. craig moffett and michael nathanson. that is the situation at the moment. i think michael's point on the streaming business is a really interesting when going forward from here. there was a ton of pull forward, and it is not a come incidents that we saw a big miss at netflix and a miss over the wall disney streaming side of things as well. tom: totally agree. to me, they are completely at the next new idea, the next new product. what do you think about english football qamar. her league in america -- football, premier league in america? jonathan: it is a question for

the broadcasters come the satellite businesses. i don't think it was a surprise that the people at sky sports were very angry about what was happening with english but pull -- english football and what was proposed to happen with some of the clubs in england. that is my particular view on what plays out in the last couple of weeks. tom: i'm just not focused, jon, because i am reading on harry kane. using this could be his last? jonathan: no idea -- do you think this could be his last? jonathan: no idea. he's a great player. it's not unusual. we have seen it before in the last 20 years, for a member of a london team to go to another london team. and he did used to play for arsenal as a kid, so who knows? i'm not saying he's going to arsenal. tom: could he go to the italian league like renaldo did? jonathan: he could, he's good enough. i just don't know if he wants to.

tom: he could go to ac milan. jonathan: i wish we could have a striker is good as harry kane over at ac milan. good morning. . tom: soccer talk. [laughter] jonathan: alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro. we really didn't do much this week. this is bloomberg. tom: the pendulum of soccer talk. ♪ talk. ♪

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♪ >> there are structural changes going on in the economy. it becomes very difficult for economists to forecast with any degree of accuracy. >> no, we are not done with the adjustment to a shock. big shock down, big shock up. >> the equity market is telling you there are inflation fears all over the place for investors. >> we should be careful about jumping to conclusions. >> the fed says we should not worry about it. this is a new paradigm. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: