♪ >> how do markets deal with a pace of growth that was so abnormally strong and is now flowing to looks like -- now slowing to something that looks more historically normal? >> people don't like inflation, but they will tolerate it. >> fundamentals for most companies have been quite good, but the reflation trade has been even better, so everything has risen. >> i do worry that after a 2021 boom, we will slow perhaps more than people expect next year. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone.

a simulcast on radio, on television. a wednesday different than tuesday, different than monday. well, earnings are the same. target crushed it. just did really well. but it is about a bond market sending inflation signals. jonathan: american retail looks good. the equity market reflected that. now it is showing me q2, q3, q4. blowout numbers. you raise the guidance. the forward looks decent. the stock trades a bit lower into the close. you saw that from macy's. saw that from home depot, too. i wonder if target holds going into the close later. tom: i want to go to what you saw 40 minutes ago or so, and that was a single headline out of china with clear ramifications that moved markets, including bitcoin down to recent lows. jonathan: clearly not happy with the direction of the commodity

market in china. things have been absolutely surging. the degree of speculation that underpins that is open to debate. clearly not happy about the prospect of people dealing in bitcoin and other chinese currencies. the rhetoric is not helpful. rhetoric wasn't helpful from elon musk either. for bitcoin as an asset class, like you, i have been very open about what i don't know about this asset class and my willingness to learn more about it on the way up in the way down. but even for the bulls out there, it really undermines the asset class that one single individual was able to move this market as much as it did through the weekend and into monday. tom: what i am really interested in as well, thanks to mike mcglone for coming on on short notice in the last hour, my inkling here is retail has got to reload in the bond market like amazon did the other day. they did $80 billion or whatever the number was. retail has just got to take advantage of this opportunity. lisa: and perhaps it will to

bulk up in terms of their inventories to get ahead of some of these supply chain disruptions. in order to finance some expansion in the e-commerce side, we are seeing a lot of companies come to the bond market. we are seeing easy financing conditions. but you are starting to see certain investors move away from wanting to buy credit or get they are seeing the peak in terms of valuations, given the inflation expectations and the fact that people believe we are moving to midcycle. this may be the dominant theme driving the response to blowout earnings. tom: look at the spread market, ign high-yield. what is the full faith and credit yield you are focused on? jon is focused on 1.74%. what are you focused on? lisa: the fact that the spread scum of the extra yield you earn to un-invest my grade credit in the united states -- the fact that the spreads, the extra

yield you earn to investment grade credit in the united states. jonathan: keep an eye on italy. seven straight days now, yields climbing. that's the periphery. i don't think that is what the ecb wants to see this early in the recovery. the credit gets, something we were discussing on monday look at what has come to market this year, i look at how it's performed since. in the primary market, the new issue is nonfinancial area in europe, investment grade, 80% of it is now trading below its issue price. there's a signal in that, and i think it speaks to the dynamic lisa is discussed more broadly. tom: the signal here is real simple. there is something inverse, like yield up, price goes down. i nailed it?

lisa: nailed it. tom: thank you. [laughter] futures -41. the vicks doesn't tell me much. the dow jones -- the vix doesn't tell me much. the dow jones crossed. -- the dow jones crushed. jonathan: when we discussed retail this morning, we are talking about the retailers realizing we need to talk about retail trading. a big part of this move higher. really lead the way in many ways, getting on board the cyclical trade before many institutional investors did, and it hasn't been lost on people that volumes have really dropped off in america over the last several months. i wonder what the retail trader, retail investment aspect of all of this actually is. the lack of participation in how things are set up at the moment. tom: we will have to see. we will get to the earnings chat any moment. binky chadha is with deutsche bank. to say he is their chief global

strategist does not speak to the acute detail of his notes. wonderful to have you with us. what is the most important statistical dynamic right now? what is the thing moving in the markets that catches your attention? binky: good morning, tom. i think as we are all cognizant of this very large number of moving parts right now, what i would basically emphasize as being most important for the equity markets is really what typically happens at this stage in the cycle, which is a peak in growth. we are talking about rates of change, not talking about growth not remaining robust. it is really a peak at growth, and not a peak in the manufacturing ism's that has

historically happened about a year into the recovery, and typically associated with significant consolidation in the markets. the pullback of 6% to 10%. that is our key view here. there are earnings, the inflation risk, what has been happening to retail investors get so there's a number of things going on, but i would argue most importantly is the peak in growth. that is the first sort of challenge for steep and sharp and very fast recovery in the equity markets that we had. jonathan: you are focused on momentum and not levels. it is an important distinction for anyone in the market. economists might be focused on the latter. you are focused on the former. i do wonder whether we have also seen peak inflation excitations. that is something h sbc has thrown into the mix. if that is the case, you should be fading the cyclicals pretty hard. i am wondering if you think that

is the case. binky: number one, are we at peak inflation expectations? there's a number of things to think about here. if you just look at what seems to be the most popular measure that is easy to look at, which is breakeven inflation rates, they would tell you the tenure breakeven inflation rate, there's probably a little bit more to go. if you are looking over the backed up to the late 1990's, we don't have a good read of what it looks like prior to that, especially in the 1970's. that really is the concern and the risk that the market is concerned about here, or should be concerned about, not just going back to pre-financial crisis, but late 1960's and early 1970's inflation spiral. that is really the concern here. lisa: can you build on that?

because this is the consensus increasingly, that much higher inflation than we have been used to over the past decades is the bigger risk for markets than disinflationary trends that the fed sees as a bigger risk. why do you think this time is different than the past several decades, where we have not seen this dynamic? binky: here i would distinguish between the medium-term perspective, which is higher inflation means higher bond yields, lower equity multiples, lower earnings yield. that is sort of a medium-term issue. what i would argue is the near-term issue over the next four to six months is really the fact that we have never had a situation historically where the fed has not begun to normalize rates, and there is an inflation concern. in the market, inflation concerns typically have in the cycle, so the inflation risk

actually materializes in terms of being persistent. the covid speed cycle is sort of going right through early, middle, late, and approaching the end cycle. but the biggest risk to the market comes from the simple fact that whenever monetary policy, whenever the fed has responded to inflation risks in the late cycle, more often than not, and didn't up -- more often than not, it ended up in a recession. it is always uncertain as to whether or not it is having an impact, so essentially it over adjusted, and that is exactly the same concern. it is just very unusual that it is happening at what is still an early stage of the cycle rather than later on in the cycle.

the end of the cycle is 24% -- it's when he 5% down. jonathan: binky chadha, good to catch up. looking for 4100 year end on the s&p 500. right now, $40 84 -- right now, 4084 on the s&p, declining about 39 points. interesting the tensions out there in inflation, which linked nominal gdp and the retail call we are seeing. tjx may not be familiar to our global audience, framing out massachusetts upside boston, where they invented this. it is off-price retailing, which comes in a number of flavors. tjx, marshals and the rest. we are focused on apple, apple, amazon, alphabet. tjx has made 19.9% per year for the last 10 years. jonathan: we call it tk maxx in the u.k.

i'm not sure why. not sure why we replace the j, but there you go. tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro. coming up at 8:30 a.m., michael shaoul, market field asset management. your face, tk, i want to frame that. tom: can you imagine when we are all in the same room two other -- same room together? it is just going to be a lovefest. ritika: governments in the european union have agreed to allow foreign visitors to the block ♪ -- to the bloc. those countries will also have to be deemed to present a low risk of spreading the coronavirus. the u.s. is very likely to make it on the approved list. targets first quarter sales blew past wall street expectations, up more than twice

what analysts forecast. target says it expects wider margins for 2021 that it had for seen earlier this year. the bitcoin rally fueled by elon musk has collapsed. the world's largest cryptocurrency fell below $38,000 at one point today. that wipes out all the gains it made since february, when tesla announced it would use corporate cash to buy bitcoin and would accept it as a form of payment for vehicles. now musk says tesla won't except the digital point. israeli airstrikes battered the hamas ruled gaza strip today as palestinian militants fired rockets into israel again. all of this happened whilst there was talk of a possible cease fire. israeli news media reported that egypt had proposed a truth that would start thursday and that hamas had agreed to comply. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg.

♪

>> the president is concerned that china is far ahead of us in the electric vehicle market, and

instead of producing the technologies of the future, we are importing them from somewhere else. it is time for that to shift around. jonathan: that was the white house national climate advisor. from new york city this morning, good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your opening bell an hour and 12 minutes away, and your equity markets heading south. we are off most 1% on the s&p. in the bond market, yields higher. 1.6540%. in the fx market, euro-dollar $1.2215. crude, $64.16. tom: i'm going to call it an inflation reset. we will get to that in the moment. we ignored lows earlier. my fault -- we ignored lowe's earlier. my fault. they are planning $9 billion in share repurchases. again, that use of cash idea coming up big time.

the use of cash in washington, there's a lot of it. benjamin bain joins us, bloomberg news chief fiscal reporter. what is the mood to get through this week on negotiation on spending all that money? what is going to be accomplished to friday, or frankly, to the sunday talk shows? benjamin: i mean, this is really easing up right now. that's really heating up right now. we are seeing the debate reach a point where both sides say they want to get something done. both sides say they want to find a place where they can basically agree to the whole infrastructure question we have been talking about for weeks, really months down here in washington, and now we are at a point where everyone is focused on where all this money is going to go. how is all this money going to be spent? that is the debate right now. once you frame that, i think we are going to see where this actually comes down and who can actually be brought on board.

tom: the cliche is a bridge to nowhere, and there's also stories from history, whether it be japan or the united states. is it just earmarks for infrastructure? is it a more legislative debate, or i need a bridge? ben: i think it is both. we have seen over the last several weeks in this country breakdowns of basic infrastructure. but we have also seen problems as people are trying to get back to work, issues with finding childcare. democrats will say that is an issue that needs to be addressed immediately, and that is part of the social infrastructure you are mentioning. so really, the question is how you draw that line. that is ultimately going to be the debate. there were some promising signs even over the past 24 hours. there was a meeting with the white house and some top republicans. essentially, the message coming out was there may be some room to reach a deal here.

whether we are going to see some of that social infrastructure make its way in there, that is ultimately going to be the question. but both sides really seem to want something done here, and it seems like their constituents want something done because they are living in districts where bridges are not working, where they need new highways. so there is pressure. lisa: there's a question from the market perspective of how exactly this will be financed. mark mccormack of td securities saying america's infrastructure plan wasn't going to have the same kind of effect on generating growth as perhaps even the german plan because so much of it might be financed by tax hikes. do we have a sense of if that is the major source of financing that is likely at this point? ben: i don't think we have yet gotten there. we have heard from the biden adminstration that they don't want to raise taxes on people earning less than $400,000 per year.

beyond that, in terms of where the taxes are ultimately going to come down, from the white house's side, we don't yet have that clear, how much they are willing to negotiate in terms of that corporate tax rate. we have an indication that they are maybe willing to come down from that additional foray -- from that initial foray. so there may be some wiggle room. we don't knit no -- we don't yet know where that is going to come down, but both sides seem to be willing to get somewhere. lisa: in the meantime, we are evidently not completely done with the pandemic, despite the fact that new york city is reopening and people are going back to offices. here in new york, we no longer have to wear masks if we are fully vaccinated, according to new guidelines that are being misinterpreted, according to tony fauci. in terms of the u.s. distribution of vaccine overseas, how is that being received?

some people are arguing the u.s. has not been aggressive enough and is allowing the likes of china to take the upper hand when it comes to international intervention here. ben: i think that is absolutely right. some have coined it vaccine diplomacy. there's an argument that the u.s. got a bit of a late start in terms of the global effort because in the u.s., there's been this push to put all of the vaccines that were produced domestically that the government had and its stockpiles to work in the united states. right now, the u.s. is really ramping up that effort, but there is a sense among some, and some have criticized the u.s. for not moving quickly to get vaccines to places like india and brazil. but the situation just south of the u.s. border in mexico is pretty dire, so there is a situation where the u.s. is starting to ramp that up. if we have 60% of people with one shot, maybe in the u.s. we have reached a certain breaking point. . jonathan: the president goes to europe next month.

the europeans are suggesting in several reports that that is going to happen soon. will u.s. reciprocate if europe opens the door? what is going on with this? ben: i think that is the hot button issue we have to watch over the next month. we are seeing, this is some -- this is summer travel season about to start. everyone is waiting to go to europe, maybe to see their family they haven't seen. there's a lot of pent-up demand. i think there's going to be pressure for the u.s. to do something. that is a decision i think we are going to have to see how it works into the broader scheme of things, how this new mask guidance actually plays out is going to play a big role, too. jonathan: ben baines down in d.c., thank you. to travel from jfk to london heathrow, that translate the grout has got to -- that transatlantic route has got to open up big time for them to

have some success. tom: but don't they need the governments' support? jonathan: absolutely, and we don't have that at all. i want to get back. if you are not a u.s. citizen and you don't have permanent residency, you can't travel directly from europe to here at the moment. tom: i go to the executive i saw who claimed immediate urgency to get this fixed. jonathan: seriously. we've been vaccinated. tom: i don't know. i've got hundreds of emails today, why isn't lisa sitting between the two of you, keeping this lovefest going? jonathan: you want to try to make that happen soon, do you? tom: i am watching bit dog. it is a bounce, but it is not an elegant chart. we are riveted to this. looking at the jimmy page telecaster, the biggest amount of mail we got today. i know he played a les paul.

"bloomberg surveillance [-- ♪ [ singing] ♪ jonathan: this is like two different shows in different studios. i have no idea what is going on. tom: on radio, it is a gorgeous telecaster. ♪ ♪

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jonathan: about 60 minutes away from the opening bel inl is doing his own program somewhere else -- a different room. down on the s&p 500. in the bond market, yields higher, 1.65. wti, $64.26. did you wear a mask in the building today? tom: no. we have a phenomenal security operation. they briefed me this morning and they said do you want to go mask less? i said ok. jonathan: the next step is we are in the same room. lisa: do you feel kind of naked

when you take the mask off? i do. it is hard to recognize people in the same way. i forgot what people look like without them. tom: i do not think it is a funny thing. jonathan: i'm not laughing at people nervous, but the idea feeling naked without a mask, i do not feel that way. we should be patient with everybody as they worked out their own terms. you have a choice many other countries do not have. there are still some access issues in various places, but for most people in this country if you want a vaccine you can get one. that is a choice. after that if you want your mascot you can take it off. that is a choice. would you like to have that choice back instead of being told what to do? tom: we got there. i thought the essay on the hill, he was scathing. this guy is a grizzled pro.

jonathan: we are starting to see division in the medical community. we have set listen to the scientists. the doctors, there is some division emerging. they want to move quicker and start treating this like the flu. tom: let's get to something serious. we have to get the markets. futures -44. interesting dynamics on the inflation fears. we will do that. i have to greet michael shaoul and say good morning. michael, we have had more emails on your love of new tele--- of nutella than anything else. in the 1960 we had tang in europe they had nutella and that speaks volumes about the transatlantic divide. michael: i grew up in england. we had golden syrup, which i

continue to give to my children. tom: they did not have nutella in england but the transatlantic divide is there measured by tang and nutella. jonathan: i had golden spirit -- golden syrup. i do not know if you should give that your kids. tom: those waffle things, those waffle things are ego. jonathan: i said ego with nutella and i called ego the waffle things. lisa: how about those markets? jonathan: quickly, your take on the price action. yields higher, everything else lower. your take, please. michael: i think we're in a bit

of a curve, obviously centered around highly optimistic projected earnings. that path to technology everybody has been banking on. that is what i would call a major correction at this point. the overall market is responding to that. i think this is typical in a major transition of leadership, which is away from technology into more cyclicality. we will have periods where everything goes up and periods where tech is lower. we are in the latter right now. jonathan: why do you think the transition persists? the transition from leadership to the more cyclical parts of this market? michael: i think the global economy post-pandemic is different than the global economy pre-pandemic. some of that is the effect of the disease. some of it is radical change in fiscal and monetary policy globally.

we are not looking at the same set of circumstances in may 2021 we work in january 2020. i think the market is slowly starting to look at that. one example of how things changed his we have cpi over 4% right now. you look at that another way, any earnings the past 25 means the earnings yield is no longer keeping up with inflation. pre-pandemic, with cpi, everything in the s&p had a comfortable real earnings yield. we had a different set of markets and monetary circumstances but economic circumstances. lisa: i want to talk about the risk introduced by bitcoin. we have bitcoin down significantly and people are talking about how that is indicative of a risk off move. i've been looking at paypal, tesla, square, big companies

that have significant bitcoin exposure and i'm wondering at what point does a real drop out of bitcoin become more systemic, that a portfolio manager has to pay attention to. michael: there is some crossover. three years ago when bitcoin blew up it -- now there is some real wealth management money in bitcoin it calls for significant amounts of market cap. tesla is already in a significant correction and i think these stocks have much further to fall. it does have the potential to have waves of panic attached to it. i do not think it will undermine the cyclical forces, which are also in place at this point. i look ahead several months.

i think there is quite a lot of cyclical equities in the u.s. and global indexes like australia and the u.k. which are cyclically focused. this goes for significantly lower prices in multiple portions of the u.s. and global equity markets. lisa: what is the profile of a panic in markets at a time when the fed is keeping policies easy at a time of such incredible growth and earnings? michael: it is a significant drawdown. it has been a fairly severe correction so far in these high multiple names. the good thing is you are losing money you've only just made. a lot is still higher than it was towards the end of the fourth quarter 2020. the declines from the 2021 highest significant. there is a lot down in a few

months, which by any definition is a severe correction. it is hard to say what the end of the day looks like. there is a degree of the panic in the market at that point. tom: when you look at sectors and the different factors between small-cap and mid-cap, international and a beleaguered em, where is the opportunity? michael: i think in the cyclical parts. em is a good example. i do not like the emerging market index as a way to put money, because it is now dominated by asian technology companies which is not what i want to own right now. some of the cyclical emerging-market indexes still look fine. brazil looks cheap, mexico looks fine, russia looks fine. they do not have a lot of market cap. you could say the same about the s&p. i do not think it is the same benchmark, but the cyclical portions look just fine.

globally, i think the two developed markets that stand out are u.k. and australia because of the makeup of their indexes. australia gives you a lot of financials, a lot of materials. i think the underlying fx is also going to battle. the aussie dollar looks cheap worse is global commodity -- versus global commodity prices. sterling is exactly where it was in june 2016. jonathan: thank you. michael shall. -- michael shaoul. the pound -- remember in march when the pound broke down big time? tom: it is important you bring this up. i thought i saw 18 or 19 big figures on the euro yen move.

there been huge moves coming out of this pandemic. jonathan: the closing low was 1.1485 was march 19 of last year. lisa: i'm trying to understand this dynamism of the u.s. economy and how long it can lead. will we see a reversion to the consensus at the end of last year? will we see an ongoing feel of that as the u.s. reopens, or is there something different about how economies are reopening? and the fact the u.s. is vaccinated so much more quickly than other countries. tom: i think you're onto something. we can make a joke about it and call it the pendulum of something different, but that is the core fear. jonathan: lisa will never live that down. most people assume the consensus view still is -- people assume dollar weakness. tom: you are off your chair at a

podium? jonathan: no idea what is going on this morning. in about 10 minutes i will be on my own. kate moore will be joining me. lisa, you have a standing invite to the program. kate moore and servetus of romanian -- and servetus subramanian. michael was very apologetic he could not 9:30. tom: so he fell back to the 8:00. jonathan: the coverage will continue on bloomberg radio with tom keene, on bloomberg tv with myself. lisa has an hour to read. tom: entry point? jonathan: you do what you want. it is about personal choice. lisa: my kids love the dogecoin.

jonathan: have you given them an account? lisa: not yet. jonathan: down 13% on bitcoin. on radio and tv, this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. president biden appears to be boxed in when it comes to the fighting in the gaza strip. right now he is able to only urge a cease fire rather than taking stronger steps. the problem, the president is wary of applying too much pressure on israel and has a lack of influence on hamas. he is looking to build on it denuclearization agreement president trump reached with north korea. the 2018 agreement between the former president and north korea's kim jong-un was a bare-bones declaration that called for the two sides to work towards complete denuclearization of the korean peninsula.

in china tesla sales growth slowed down sharply last month, little under 12,000. that is almost two thirds last then in march, when almost 35,000 were registered. the embarrassing protests against tesla at the shanghai auto show and a run of accidents. the ceo of deutsche bank says the firm must be ready for possible acquisitions once the european banks picks up. it was the clearest indication that christian sewing is considering deals again. saving says european bank consolidation will happen sooner or later. jetblue plans to start its long-awaited flights between new york and london this august. the airline is jumping into a pandemic battered market that remains largely struck down. fair started $519 round-trip in coach and 1579 for premium seats

. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i think most agents have the sense of otherness, and i felt

that, especially on the mainland u.s. i have had americans say things to me like where are you really from, even when i was wearing my nation's uniform with the american flag on my shoulder. tom: the lt. col. from illinois. david rubenstein with another important peer-to-peer conversation. david rubenstein joins us now on tammy duckworth. she is a politician but far more than that. it is an exceptional story. from the singapore, the bangkok school, father that moved around and moved around, and there were tough times, to her war duty. what did she say to you about the war duty and where she is now in 2021? sen. duckworth: she is -- david:

she is now united states senator. she was considered by vice president biden to be his vice presidential choice. she grew up with a fair amount of poverty in thailand and then hawaii and finally decided to become a helicopter pilot for the illinois national guard. she went to iraq and tragically lost her legs in a helicopter accident. as a result she had to rebuild her life. since that time she was elected to congress, served in the obama administration, and has mothered two children. tom: the immediate point is asian americans and how they relate to the rest of the country. what did she say about anti-asian comments? david: she thinks despite the fact she is united states senator and gave a large part of her body to the united states government in a tragic accident that occurred while she was fighting, she is still discriminated against. she is in a different position

than she was when she was younger, but she still thinks discrimination against asian americans is fairly evident across the country and getting worse and she is trying to fight it. lisa: one thing that is so great about your interviews is you always get to the human side of people who are in places of high power. i wonder if you can give a sense of how some of these images -- these consequences of asian-american discrimination, and the social changes with the pandemic have color her views when it comes to pushing certain parts of the biden agenda? david: there is no doubt the recent pandemic has focus more attention on asians. many people in united states think everyone from asia is from china. while they may be upset about china they take out against all asians and they should not be taking at out against anybody because nobody in the united states had anything to do with that. that is the way life has evolved, sadly.

she is determined to do more about it and do what she can is united states senator. the important thing to me is that for all the things she has had to go through she does not seem to have any bitterness. she lost her legs, but she did not have to go on that mission, she did not have to get iraq. she did not have to go on that mission for the helicopter crash. she volunteered. she put her life back together. she and her husband had two children. she got elected to congress. she is relatively cheerful. she does not have a bitterness that i would've thought she would have had. it is a compelling story. lisa: it definitely is. she has happiness even if she chuckles a big workload and a home load. she talked about how it is challenging to go back and forth between both of those and it does beat to the biden administration plans for child tax credit and other areas to help families. can you give us a sense of how

much mainstream support she sees this happening versus some of the pushback where people are saying stop trying to shoehorn in certain agendas into this broader issue we have right now, fighting the pandemic? david: there is no doubt the pandemic has been the main focus of members of congress for a while. now people are beginning to look at other issues. the tax issue and the infrastructure issues are things she is worried about. i think she has a unique voice. she is one of the few people that have served in congress with these kinds of tragic accidents she has gone through and she is living a full life. she is married, she has responsibilities in illinois. she juggles all of that and doesn't pretty well. it -- and does it pretty well. it is an inspirational story of how someone can rise up and have great sacrifices for the country and not be better. it is a great -- and not be bitter.

it is a great human story and she wrote a great book about it. tom: what did she say about the future of her democratic party. when you're from illinois it is a certain democratic politics. what did she say naturally about the democrats in 2022? david: we did not get into that. she is from a state that is pretty democratic and she reflects the mainstream of that thought, but i think she feels that better bipartisan cooperation in congress would be a good thing. it is not easy to do. she is working across the aisle. i think she is a great symbol for that kind of cooperation. tom: thank you for the time. david rubenstein, the carlyle group co-founder. the interview with senator tammy duckworth tonight. david rubenstein, peer-to-peer conversations. i am sorry, i was dealing with some nutella mail we got and

bitcoin is not under 36,000, it will just now preach 33,000. lisa: you can see a real deterioration across the index, particularly the nasdaq. bitcoin is indicative of a risk off feel we see across markets. i wonder whether it becomes a bit of a systemic risk, and i did not mean in terms of collapsing the system, not to exaggerate this, but the idea a lot of big companies have invested heavily in bitcoin, the semiconductor producers have benefited from the crypto asset search. how much of this would be reflected in the risk off feel? tom: we will people you abreast of this with bloomberg technology, what joe weisenthal is doing in the afternoon as well. this is bitcoin in retreat and plunging. i will break protocol and type when we are on screen. lisa: why not? tom: mike will probably email

and say what is the function? we look for news flow into the 9:00 hour while we get a plunge, now down over $4000. those are dollars, not index points. lisa: dear remember when people were saying a lot of institutions felt like they had to invest in bitcoin, everybody had to have a slice if they wanted to reflect markets? i wonder how much you have an immediate reversal given the volatility and not very much news, the idea there could be a trigger and it gets deflated. tom: i just did it on the bloomberg terminal. the trading envelope, a fitted standard deviation study and bitcoin is spot on a three standard deviation move on a daily chart. that is not a crisis move but that is a big move. thanks for getting the chart up, riley. he killed on getting the chart. on radio, all you need to know

is bitcoin south. paul sweeney and i will continue the discussion in a moment. from the council on foreign relations, richard oz later this morning. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro.

jonathan: it is not looking good this morning. from new york city, good morning . the countdown to the open starts right now. crypto and equity futures down. we declined 1.3% on the s&p. is there a bubble in inflation warning? >> inflation. >> inflation. >> inflation. >> there are worries about the inflation risk. >> there are meaningful concerns about inflation. >> the fed cannot stop inflation. >> i worry they will fall behind. >> the risk of policy. >> baby the inflation will not be transit