♪ joe: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, i'm joe weisenthal. romaine: i'm romaine bostick. caroline hyde will be back on monday, but in financial markets, wild today. joe: the question is, what'd you miss? romaine: bitcoin rounding off a volatile week for the largest cryptocurrency. this time it was china, as it was last time, and it's not the

only thing moving this week. futures did bounce back today, but posted its worst week in two months. you also had oil sliding with its worst week in six. amid all this noise, the s&p 500 is what, down a fraction of a week still? joe: the s&p not going anywhere. all kinds of action, except it seems in stocks has been going sideways. if you look at the s&p 500, not up, not down, it's been a quiet few weeks. romaine: it's called treading water, joe. joe: for more, let's welcome process at reporter -- cross asset reporter katie greifeld. everyone's attention is turned elsewhere and there is stuff happening. katie: stocks are not doing

anything. that chart looks dead in the water. bitcoin, when you are plunging 30% in a day and doing it almost again the next day, that is going to take some eyeballs. the thing about bitcoin, it's not just a sideshow anymore. there is a lot of wall street embrace of it, a lot of institutional money in it now. the stakes are higher than if we think about 2017 when it was fresh. it feels like that's where all the action is. at this point, it's a good measure of risk sentiment in the market. so it's useful in that sense. romaine: i keep hearing everyone say that is the barometer there. we should try to find a correlation with elon musk rosie tweets. there was a broader story in the market that got obscured by the crypto collapse. that was the concern about inflation, which do not seem to be as concerned as they were about a year ago. it has come down slightly and they are still kind of tracking in line with what would consider to be what the fed is looking

for. katie: it feels like inflation fears that pique anxiety have fallen off the board. in a normal market, we would be making a lot more noise about this. you would see stocks moving more off of that. it's not as fun as crypto. you saw the nasdaq 100 each out again -- eke out a gain, but it has been a rough week. it looks like even these falling inflation anxieties could not help out tech that much. joe: we talk about inflation, commodities, but there are two things. one, there is a reflation, growth, demand for commodities, which i guess is fine, and then there is the bottleneck and the shortages, which aren't fine. one of them is like, we are using more cover and stealing oil because the economy is grossly robust, but if it is

about, we can't get stuff to other places, that is not so good. katie: that's why you've seen real rates and expectations rake apart. all the inflation we are seeing, it's really from the supply side. there is a lot of bottleneck and we can't get these materials, versus there is real growth in the economy and it is fueling that. romaine: as we try to read the tea leaves on the market, how are investors positioning themselves? whether it's the readings we get from the retail side or even a hedge fund? katie: it is still small, but you are seeing some caution get built into the stocks. there was this great set that found that 22 percent of option volume is mostly in clips. that's the second biggest amount since july. you go to the other end of the spectrum, the hedge funds, they are doubling down on their bearish bets on tech,

specifically. you are seeing some caution spill into the market, but it is still building. if you look at the charts, there is not a lot happening yet. romaine: we will see what happens next week. katie greifeld giving us an update there. here's more on what you miss -- what'd you miss?, coming up. demand remains strong, leaving investors paying record high cash prices. that's coming up next. this is bloomberg. ♪

romaine: all the attention we have put on cryptocurrencies this week, you might have missed some volatility in lumber. lumber in the span of two hours hit limit down and limit up, ending the week on a high note here, but still down on the week by about several percentage points, joe. joe: absolutely. you can see in the july futures charts, it has been rocking. pulling back now, a little bit more. joining us now with more insight to this fan favorite is the ceo of the deacon lumber company. last time he was on, it broke the records for viewers. thanks for coming back. things are cooling off a little

bit. what has fundamentally changed since the last time we spoke, which was about a month ago? >> we are in a bit of a standoff. we had buyers versus sellers in february and march, and the sellers won that standoff and the markets retired. i think we are back in that kind of standoff. what's difference between then and now and the things i have observed? the big builders are pushing back. the rhetoric is not so much price, they just don't have confidence in the supply, so they are going to dial back what they are going to sell. they are turning away homebuyers. no one is questioning demand. demand is clearly there, but we are running into capacity constraints. so that is different. for me, the may futures contract, the way it expired was kind of boring, right? if people had a huge need for wood, that contract would

have shot up, because it offers buyers a chance for physical delivery. it was flat to weak, and we even saw a kerry at the end of that -- a carry in that at the end of that spread. it could take a while to adjust, but as a header, it's what i look at. the price in the last two or three days has been limit, limit, limit -- we will see if it is a dead cat bounce. i don't know. the spread has stayed stagnant to even lower. joe: we have that july-september futures spread chart. you can see it has not gone anywhere. >> right. it rallied, but the most recent rally, it's not really reacting to it. that's something that's

different than the previous rally we have had. one more big point, the big-box stores have taken a lot of supply. the big-box stores by direct and do not see the open market. they do not supply single-family home builders. the wood on the shelves at home depot does not go to build homes, for the large part. that's they are seasonal, diy, shoulder command is peaking, so i expect to see more wood going direct to big-box stores get back on the open market and supply single-family homes. romaine: a lot of people are also talking here about the idea here that you are not really seeing the price, i guess, at the root, forgive the pun, going up as much as you are seeing others? >> it has been stagnant to

flash, has not risen with lumber prices, because we do not use those trees to build homes. the stuff that is priced in canada -- this is a big story here -- it does increase and it is in lockstep with the price of lumber. it is lagged by three to six months. what we will see the second half of the year, canadian sawmills, their breakevens will go up $100 per 1000. if there is still a tariff, which was announced before we went on air that they are looking at doubling it. this is a procedural row view. it was not a new initiative. now the review is potentially doubling these tariffs, so we could see this going up to $200 per thousand more for the second half of the year. more pressures to bring the floor higher, because i am as big of a bull as they come, but where's the new normal? the longer we go at higher prices, we normalize it, and that floor goes higher and

higher. there will be upward cost pressures for the second half of the year. joe: there is another factor that seems to be at play, which is there might be signs that this torrid u.s. housing market is measured in different ways, is slowing down a little bit. we have seen new home sales come in weaker than expected. we are seeing talk -- we talked to ellie wolf, who recently pointed out that the homebuilders themselves are throttling their demand. for all kinds of reasons -- may a shortage of space, pushing back, slowing down. we talk about the supply side -- is the demand side going to ease up a little bit and creates a breathing room? -- create some more breathing room? >> ally would know better than i would, but yes. we are not hitting a constraint, and it is not bearish, but it is not a list. i think homebuilders will have a choice. do i sell dirt and try to guess

what the sale price needs to be and hope my inputs profitable? i don't think they are willing to do that as an aggressive scale. there will be a limit on demand, and that stagnation could potentially give the supply chain a chance to catch up. romaine: what does it mean for some of the folks who are trying to trade this market? a lot of folks still betting on the idea that if the high prices don't necessarily continue, they will at least stay high and persist. >> it goes to what is happening right now. the sawmills are sold out into mid june on a strong forward sale, so this second quarter is done. these mills have had a great second quarter. there's only a couple of weeks left that they have to sell production. shipping has improved drastically. we did not have the big winter

storm that slowed down rail, so i think you will see more shipments than sales in the second quarter, which will reduce inventories. for me, that thesis of higher for longer, the breakevens are going up, they won't have a choice to keep prices elevated above $600 to make any money, and the fact that we've been selling and are just now seeing a pushback from builders at $1700 lumber, the next stop will be canada. there is $100 in freight added on to that, and all the middlemen who touch that. it tells me, it took $1700 and we could be seeing some equilibrium and pushback on the demand-side. we would all love to own $1000 lumber at this point, which is a wild thing to think about, but that floor goes higher and higher as we normalize these high prices. romaine: we will have to leave it there. great insights, we appreciate you taking time with us. stilson dean, ceo of the dean

con lumber company. bitcoin taking another hit today after china warns it plans to crack down on bitcoin mining. our next guest will be joining the show in just a moment. this is bloomberg. ♪

romaine: grabbing the headlines once again is bitcoin. crypto heading into the weekend here, another trend on the weekend. joe: it has to be another relief for those in the industry after this brutal selloff. they don't have to worry about it. joining us with more insight, jill carlsen. you have seen the cycles, they go straight up and straight down.

is this cycle over? jill: to a degree. easy come, easy go. i came on the show at the beginning of january and we talked about the bit when rally that was happening. we talked about how -- i talked about how i thought it was very healthy price action, you see it is all institutionally driven. i think that narrative still holds true. what happened in the interim was that elon musk came in on january 29, tweeted about bitcoin, and broad and brought in hoards of retail investors -- and brought in hoards of retail investors. it is no coincidence that we are back at roughly the same price we were in mid-january before elon musk got involved and brought in all of this retail interest. here we are. romaine: great point.

one aspect people did talk about was that companies are putting this on the balance sheet. then, of course, with the confusion or whatever with regards to whatever tesla is still holding were not, i am curious about that side of the equation and if it is still holding. the company's art there are still considering using this as a balance sheet asset. jill: confusion is definitely the right word when it comes to what's going on with tesla. i think there is a dynamic around them being -- with esg stocks, needing to maintain their position with environmental play, all of that. the reality is, institutions are still buying bitcoin. if you look at the data from yesterday, both had their biggest outflow, meaning institution buying, than they had seen in the past three to

four months. that gives me an idea that institutions are still coming in and buying the disc. it was a real sentiment around bitcoin and proof of work tokens, that there is environmental concern. that affects sentiment, which has a real impact on markets and will have an impact on new decisions by treasuries, institutions, as far as what to be involved in. the narrative around institution buying does change the whole thing. joe: elon musk aside, and this is something i have always -- i have always been a little uncomfortable with your industry. it seems that every time there is a bull markets, people in the crypto space plug thousands of coins. 2000 coins a day, he said, are

being added to the unit swap program. three different people made memes of me that traded on pancake swap. suddenly, once there is only 21 million bitcoin, people flood the market with supply, creating some weight on the market overall? jill: i don't think that is a fair characterization, actually, because i do not think it is the new coins taking the air out of the room when it comes to bitcoin. sure, maybe a little bit on the edges, around the retail market person, but that is not comparable to supply. joe: there are all kinds of reasons people want to buy bitcoin. one reason is because they want to buy an asset that is going up really fast, and there is no principle behind it other than number go up. when this stuff flooded the market at the margins, does that

take away the enthusiasm to buy? jill: at the margins, yes. i think it takes air out of the room around dogecoin, more than bitcoin or ethereum. let's not confuse these with a plethora of other assets that we are seeing the utility around, whether it is experimentation, energy intensive systems, we are seeing real market demand for these types of alternatives now for the first time. i think that's a real, exciting developments. romaine: it seems like people in your industry understand the point you just made, joe. for those people coming into the -- into the space, i'm wondering when you anticipate that cloud being put behind you?

jill: today, it is very much a matter of doing your own research. one heuristic, if the coin is named after a dog or your favorite news anchor, don't invest in it. [laughter] jill: if you look back at the nascent gaze of any market, it is a matter of people doing their own research. every market in its earliest days, going back to the stock market, you don't need to go back as far as to lip. markets go through this period where there are grifters and scammers and people looking to create a quick buck. joe: we have hit the energy debate. we could talk about it forever. in china already, you can't buy hard drives because of file coin

mining and so forth. this is pretty capital and intensive stuff that all these new coins are launching into. jill: the space and time is a great example of a more environmentally friendly version of what it coin tries to achieve. certainly it might still be capital-intensive, but they are economically incentivized networks. you have to have that capital outlet in some way shape or form -- way, shape or form. personally, i am very excited about the alternative of being able to use space as opposed to compute, which is obviously less energy intensive. romaine: jill carlson, great to catch up with you, cofounder of the open money initiative. to our viewers out there, you can subscribe to our weekly podcast and see all the good things we managed to do during the week. joe: we can leave off the bad

stuff. we don't put any of the bad stuff on there. romaine: we pack it all into a five-minute podcast. joe: that's it for "what'd you miss?" bloomberg technology is next. ♪

>> from the heart of where innovation, money, and power collide. this is bloomberg technology with emily chang. ♪ emily: i am emily chang incident sysco. coming up in the next hour, tim cook takes the stand in the climax of the apple epic trial. the