manus: good morning from dubai, i am manus cranny with annmarie hordern in new york. these are today's stories that set your agenda. europe reacts with outrage after belarus faces a ryanair flight to land in minsk so a journalist can be arrested. eu leaders meet today.

stoxx a study amid another weekend on the crypto -- stocks are steady amid another week and on the crypto roller coaster. and zero-tolerance. china tightens the commodity sector, setting punishments for violations in a bid to cool markets. it has just gone 9:00 a.m. in downtime dubai, welcome to my home, there was a 1980's program called through the keyhole, come in and have a cup of coffee. the chinese are on a mission. lamb pending -- lampooning the crypto markets, a zero-tolerance policy. i take you back to a conversation we had last week. it was the chinese who gorge on these commodities when the markets imploded last year, it was the chinese who scooped up all of the commodities. now it is too hot to handle.

annmarie: good morning, thank you for letting us into your home this morning. manus: an -- annmarie: another guest said that the chinese hoarding the commodities in 2020, now they are ramping up the heat, trying to cool down the market and have a zero-tolerance approach. if you look across the metals market, they are bearing the brunt of this, iron down 6% today, aluminum, steel, copper, everything on the metal front eating rolled down as we see china out with strong language on the commodity front. manus: yeah, it is interesting the oil market seemed a little more resolute. we will talk about a ran -- iran in a moment. i know you've got points from john moorman. are the bulls in charge as in

2017 and 2018? range bound yields and get ready for a final melt up? or the bears, who think we have a sinister series of deleveraging events -- did i say crypto and bitcoin? a sinister series of deleveraging events that ended in a minsk a moment. inflation deficits and a complicit fed. that is a value market followed by a bear market. those are your choices. where do you hone in on? annmarie: john norman in his last note before he left the bank was talking about a moderate chance of 10% drop in global equities this summer. he said the market is in a young phase that he respects returns to be below average for the rest of the year. a little cautiousness from him. bank of america puts it in the

late 60's, what they see between the bull and bear push and pull. manus: [laughs] indeed. do you like the backdrop? annmarie: i do, you have a fantastic apartment, it is much better from my work from home. -- van my work from home. we want to kick off a story that is grappling the u.s. and europe, outrage after belarus ordered a ryanair flight to land and arrested a journalist on board. unprecedented violation of european air travel protocols. in a tweet, the eu president labeled the action acceptable and says action will be discussed at today's leader summit in brussels. maria, how has the international community responded? it seems everyone is on board with this condemnation. maria: yes, it is outrage and shock. just to recap, this is a

commercial plane, a ryanair flight from athens and diverted halfway through the flight with a security alert to arrest a journalist on the ground in minsk. this is problematic on many levels for europeans. this is a flight between two member states and also european airspace and clearly a military operation to detain a critic. when you look at the reaction from european institutions, the head of the commission said this is outrageous, illegal and there will be consequences. the heads of the european council who speaks on behalf of the european leaders said today, sanctions will be discussed. this will not go without consequences. it is a big test for european foreign policy and diplomacy. taking into account this is happening in european airspace. manus: and therein lies the points.

if you look at ursula von der leyen, some are saying this is unprecedented. how high will they ratchet sanctions and to what scale? what is available to them that could really deliver a high-impact message? maria: manus, there is already talk that today more sanctions will be announced. when you look at the reaction from some countries in europe and particular eastern europeans, they are already saying there needs to be sanctions on something that amounts to state terror. the question is whether or not lukashenko would be targeted himself. the eu has tiptoed around that idea and what measures will be taken against belarus. the other question is what reaction should we get from russia? until now, the major backing from vladimir putin helped lukashenko stay in power. manus: maria, thank you very much.

let's see what the news is from the ministers meeting today. joining us now is our guest. thank you for joining us us this morning -- joining us this morning. it is hard to choose a core direction but let's start where we started the show, china sending a clear message to the commodity market that there will be zero-tolerance in terms of commodity violation, monopolies and false information. it has shaken the commodity market, one would say come quite aggressively. your first take on the weeklong disruption from china? good morning. hannah: good, lovely to be here. what has happened with the commodity market, you had a tremendous move from the end of last year, and perhaps it is not sustainable. when china gets involved in situations like this, whether it happened now or things like alibaba with the chinese

regulators, you see quite a dramatic a selloff. in particular when this part of the market moved up so much last year. i think perhaps some of the worry, some of the noise is starting to worry investors, and the last moves have started to pare back a little. annmarie: you focus on equities, and when you see statements like this from china, doesn't change how you think of equities committed -- connected to commodities? hannah: we don't typically invest in mining businesses because of capital expenditure, but if you have interruptions like this from china, and i used the example of alibaba, it is a good one because earlier in the year when they fought that fine, you saw dramatic selloff, companies like tencent came under pressure as well. when you get these interventions from chinese regulators and so forth, it can create opportunity to invest in companies.

high-quality in a more reasonable valuation and perhaps you might have otherwise seen. manus: hannah, we will dig more into the inflation technology relationship in a moment, what part of this narrative is about the inflation, the producer push price inflation in china, that's what they want to get a stranglehold on. if i look at the rollover and breakevens in the united states over the last five or six days, we've had one of the biggest rollovers and breakevens since the autumn of last year. from the whole inflation debate, this is probably a welcome repricing? hannah: i have seen investors getting increasingly concerned about inflation, particularly in the states, and i think that has weighed on the equity markets a little. what is interesting is your starting to see technology names come off quite a bit on the back of the news of inflation, which you would not typically expects because they don't have those

manufacturing costs and so forth. what i would typically have expected is perhaps for example, your stable companies have more of an impact and they have hung in there strongly. they are able to pass the inflation to consumers and have held up very well. it is interesting technology has come back off the news of inflation any paring back i think would be taken favorably by the markets. annmarie: you look at global equities, are using inflationary pressures from companies you track? are they nervous across the board? what is your take? hannah: we have seen some nervousness. like i said, we tend to invest in capital light businesses that don't have high manufacturing costs that would be impacted by inflation. a company like l'oreal, for example, would perhaps have inflationary pressures, but the

branding and pricing power is so strong they are able to pass those costs through to consumers. a good example of a company that is different is gentle dynamics, not your typical industrial, it does a and business jets and has long-term price contracts. they are also managing to not be so impacted by inflationary pressures. annmarie: stay right there. you will stay with us this monday morning. i want to get a recap of your first word news with annabelle droulers. annabelle: japan is stepping up its vaccination drive, the countries large-scale vaccination centers have opened with plans to administer one million doses per day. the government wants to finish vaccinating the country of 36 million over 65 by the end of july. this comes amid growing criticism of tokyo's plans to host the olympics as planned

this summer. in the u.k., prime minister boris johnson's plan to unlock the economy appears to be on track. data shows covid vaccines are effective against the new variant first identified in india. over 60 million shots have been given with 72% of adults having received the first dose. the goal is to fully remove restrictions by june 21. three research from the wuhan institute of virology reportedly sought hospital care in november 2019, around the time experts say the coronavirus again circulating around the chinese city. the wall street journal is setting an undisclosed u.s. intelligence report for the story. no official conclusion has been made about the origins of the virus, the report adds to the theory it may have begun in a lab. an ejection court has again rejected an appeal to allow the giant container ship that blocked the suez canal to leave the country. the canal authority is claiming

more than $900 million in damages to the six-day closure. in out-of-court negotiations, the load is up to $600 million and operators say that is still too high. global news 24 hours a day on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. manus? manus: thank you very much for wrapping up the news this monday morning. coming up, president biden will not let inaction be the answer. that is the message from the white house when the gop panned the revised infra structure plan. we will have the details here on "daybreak: europe." this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the real question is whether the republicans will meet the effort the president is showing. it is a sincere effort to move the country forward. the president has been very clear that inaction is not an option. >> i think we are still pretty far apart, but this is the test. this will determine whether or not we can work together in a bipartisan way on an important issue. the other important area where we are far apart is still the money. annmarie: cedric richmond and susan collins speaking yesterday on the sunday shows about biden's infrastructure plan. this is of course after senate republicans rejected president biden's 1.7 trillion dollar proposal on friday. they said the revised offer signaled the gap between the two sides were widening.

the cost remains the gop sticking point. our guest is still with us. hannah, when you look at the debate going on about infrastructure, argue banking on infrastructure at some point coming into the frame, and are you starting to invest in some companies you think will do well off of this kind of bill? hannah: we are starting to look more into the u.s. in particular because we have started to see a comeback in that area. we are not so much looking at info structure but anything showing signs of recovery as a result of biden, or perhaps any weakness we get as a result of political moves. we also have the tax coming in that could have an impact on companies. we don't feel that is fully reflected yet and could offer opportunities. manus: one of the things john norman has written in his final notice as he goes out the door is he expects a correction of sorts in global markets of about

10%. i want to get an idea from you -- do you look at cycles? bank of america says we could get ready for the final melt up or a minsky moment. this is between the bulls on the melt up and the bears say it could be a sinister deleveraging and we can have a minsky moment. are you concerned in any way? would you take any risk off the table or reallocate in the portfolio to a slightly more defensive position to ready yourself for a minsky 10% drawdown? hannah: i think it is phenomenal that the markets are already up 10% this year. if you look at historical context, that means we should be more measured about return expectations going forward, particular leasing we have -- seeing that we have been through a pandemic. talking between ourselves on our team, we are actually really excited about the opportunity we

are seeing from tech names this year. even large-cap names have really trended sideways since the middle of last year. earnings are still coming through. i think the whole looking at the market, we should measure expectations. what is exciting is we are seeing pockets of opportunity in parts of the market that haven't reflected the recovery. annmarie: you talk about risks you are looking at. when you wake up, you can paint covid as a positive or negative picture depending on where you are looking at. are you starting to bake in potential risks when it comes to the pandemic still? hannah: we are starting to take some risk off the table in terms of our travel exposure in particular. we saw very big moves last year in the likes of your brookings holdings, intercontinental hotels, and we managed to capture that exposure. they have typically been trending sideways since then,

the emergence of new variants, problems with vaccine rollouts. i don't think we are seeing in the real true reopening, although we are getting more freedom in the u.k., which is nice. we are taking some risk off the table in terms of travel exposure, yeah. manus: we are debating that coin, 30% up, 30% down. the chinese with a warning shot across it coin. -- bitcoin. a lot of people will debate whether it can deliver a contagious shock to the system. i said last week it has the capacity. do you? >> it has come down 40%, if that is in a shock, i don't know what is. the volatility is phenomenal. ultimately, if you had invested at the start and held it, you would have done spectacularly well. for us, we just cannot see the

tangibility of the earnings stream. we prefer to invest in something we can forecast out a lot more predictable and have that predictability from the past, and we know how these companies operate as opposed to raving volatility that bitcoin has to offer. annmarie: do you think there will be contagion potentially to other parts of the market? hannah: i think bitcoin marches to its own drum. you do get contagion to other cryptocurrencies, but i think it is so far removed from normal businesses that i don't think there will be particularly any follow-through, but that is just my opinion. manus: and your opinion is as valid as a lot of other peoples, let's be honest. lord elon seems to drive the directionality of where bitcoin goes. hannah, thank you so much. context, look for pockets of

opportunity. our guest this morning. coming up, zero-tolerance. china tightens of screws on the commodity sector, pledging fund -- the story and context is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ . ♪

annmarie: good morning. i am in new york and manus cranny joins us from his home in dubai. china has intensified its weeklong campaign to cool the boom.

it will show zero-tolerance for market violations. this is pumped to the selloff in commodity spirit -- commodities. let's get more from ilia saly in singapore. what does this entail? juliette: beijing has been saying a lot trying to cool this market, but perhaps the strongest words yet, looking at speculation, hoarding and vowing extreme punishment from the likes of violations ranging from expenses regulation in the futures markets also spreading fake news. china doesn't want to see a big pickup in prices due to rising inflation and doesn't want to have to pay for these commodity prices that continue to boom. so these strong words called into top mining officials on sunday to try to stop this speculation and the ramp up in prices has seen a huge downward measure coming through in terms of what you see in commodities

today, particularly in iron ore in singapore, a drop of about 6.5%, which has floated through to a lot of mining producers. most specifically in the australian market, drop by about 4% in fortis you in sydney. -- fortescue in sydney. you can see this reflected on my chart. morning words coming through from beijing, seeing a halt, which is the measures they want. someone saying another week, another chinese government announcement trying to soothe what she says are self-inflicted wounds caused by regular statements on still capacity reforms, and that fueled these prices, the big jumps in prices and margins. beijing is trying to cool the market again and the zero-tolerance policy virtually signaling there will be some very strong punishments for anyone speculating in futures

markets. annmarie: thank you. juliette saly in singapore. what a huge pullback we are seeing in iron ore, this is a debate we've seen across the street, whether or not we are in a super cycle. some of our guests were talking about china in 2020 hoarding these commodities on the cheap and now trying to cool it. brent crude a different story, up six tents of a percent paid it is the optimism of the demand, isn't it? manus: yes, and i think if you look at the east-west divide, and looking at some notes, everybody is trying to work out how quickly could iran come back to the market on the oil side? we will talk about this later on. goldman sachs say $80 is attainable, even aggressively assuming july restart for iranian crude, they still see $80. it is about mobility and they say that is deeply underpriced

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annmarie: good morning from new york, i am and ray hoar dorn with manus cranny -- annmarie hordern with manus cranny in dubai. outrage after belarus forces a ryanair flight to land in minsk so a journalist can be arrested. eu leaders meet today. another weekend on the crypto roller coaster. investors will shift attention to a raft of u.s. data this week.

and zero-tolerance as a china tightens the screws on the commodity sector, punishing violence -- pledging punishment for violations. we are seeing a divergent of assets across the board. if you look at the commodities sector, what a downdraft we are seeing, iron or across a singapore down more than 6%, this as a china vowing zero-tolerance. brent crude up 7/10 of a percent, this is the optimism of demand, especially when you look at the vaccine rollouts in the u.k. and u.s. i know one asset you are looking at is bitcoin, 35 k, i think just yesterday, volatility down some 18%, and whether or not we will see contagion to other parts of the market remains to be seen. mohamed el-erian is saying narrowly no, but more complex potentially. manus: and to what extent do

people hedge bitcoin volatility with gold? we know a lot more institutions are involved in the bitcoin trade. john morgan, we talked about his final call, that this only begins to bleed if bitcoin goes down to $20,000 per there is an undoubted movement last week between the explosion in bitcoin or -- and equities. the china story this morning is the alpha, but i am surprised the dollar has not moved more. when you look at what bank of america are saying, it is about trying to judge where we are in the stage. john norman says we are in the early stage of the market. on the bullish side, bank of america saying we are getting ready, the bulls are waiting for the final melt up, the final countdown -- i can't remember who wrote that song. the bears are waiting for a

minsky moment. the longer we go on with this effusive news, the bigger pain, back to the 1970's. i don't want to go back to 1970's. and a complicit fed. there is a lot to choose from. the 1970's were not great for me. annmarie: the 1960's, bank of america, higher rates, budget deficits, a complicit fed, that's what bank of america is pointed to. they are pointing to just thoughts on the market, how drastic it can be between the bulls and bears when you look at a potential minsky moment or absolute melt up of events and the start of a massive bull market. manus: absolutely. we put that in context as the morning goes on. citigroup with no surprises, below zero for the first time on thursday, something to reflect on. let's set the stage, geopolitics

is the most read story on the terminal this morning. europe and the united states have reacted, outrage after belarus ordered a ryanair flight in its airspace to land and they arrested a journalist on board. an unprecedented violation of air travel protocols. the eu commission president labeled of the action unacceptable and says the action will be discussed at today's eu leaders summit in brussels. let's get to our europe reporter. the international community is quite literally fuming. give us some context on the levels of response we have seen from europe and beyond. maria? maria: they are fuming because this really is unprecedented. we are looking at the case of a commercial flight, ryanair flight from athens, this is a european airspace and between two member states of the eu, and

it gets hijacked to minsk to arrested journalist. it is now a military operation. it is clear this was planned ahead. european leaders say this is almost an act of terrorism that happened on that plane that could've endangered the lives of everyone on the plane, but also a clear move designed to quiet a critical member against the lukashenko regime. someone who is in opposition member and has been very vocal against lukashenko for a year. the european union saying this will not go unpunished and there will be consequences to come. clearly this issue is not top of the agenda. annmarie: what sanctions could they add? maria: you know, the polish prime minister was quick yesterday to say this is an act of terrorism and should be treated as such, so there could be more sanctions to come and targeted and much more forceful than the past. that brings us to the question

of whether lukashenko himself could be sanctioned. the other issue is perhaps the european union could decide that from now on there is no travel into belarus, whether it is airspace or any medium of communication into the country, which would essentially leave belarus shutdown from every neighboring country in the european union and push it closer to russia, the only ally they have at this point is vladimir putin. annmarie: thank you so much. you will be covering the eu summit today. let's get a recap of the first word news with annabelle droulers. annabelle: taiwan is upping its coronavirus curbs. the capital is banning all on-site dining and drinking. outlets will only be allowed to serve take out or make deliveries. restriction on the island is also threatening to hit the global semiconductor market

already facing an unprecedented crunch. only about 1% of its population is vaccinated so far. in germany, the green party candidate for chancellor has slipped in the new paul's amid a scandal after admitting to receiving bonus payments she failed to report to parliament. according to a poll published in bild, she would get 20% of the vote, still ahead of the social democrats and the cdu. iran is likely to extend a yuan nuclear inspections agreement by a month, buying diplomats in vienna to renegotiate the landmark deal. diplomats are saying that failing to extend the pact could scuttle wider discussions. republicans in the u.s. are saying that gap with the white house on infrastructure spending is widening. they panned a slimmed-down rescue plan from the president. they disagreed with the cost and content. a white house aide told cnn the

president will change course if a bipartisan deal is impossible. global news 24 hours a day on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. manus? manus: thank you very much. annabelle droulers with the latest news. kristalina georgieva says she expects approval for $650 billion in new reserve assets by the board of governors by the end of august. she spoke in an interview with david westin in washington. >> what we recognize is we are not going to see economic recovery until we are out of the health crisis, and we ask the question what would it take to vaccinate the world's population

by the end of this year and the level of 40%, and men next year at the level of 60% -- mid next year at the level of 60% that would bring the acceleration of recovery everywhere. the answer is we need to inject upfront financing in covax, the facility that helps developing countries to bring vaccines to their people. we have to fund it now, not make commitments for some future. we have to get countries with access vaccines to make now a commitment to release what they don't need to their own people so it can be integrated in vaccination plans in the developing world. very important to recognize there may be problems down the road with mutations and booster shots necessary. so plan to overproduce, expand

production capacity and diversify this production capacity. allow the flow of materials and vaccines to be freely executed around the world. last but not least, meanwhile, while we are boosting vaccinations, make sure developing countries contest and trace covid cases and that they can prepare for vaccinations for the vaccines when they arrive. when you look at these three blocks, step up support for developing countries now with money and excess doses, boost production capacity and overshoot so we can cover the world more effectively, and prepare developing countries to receive the vaccine to protect their people in the meanwhile. we came up with a price tag of $50 billion, of which we believe

$35 billion should be grants. these are poor countries, many of them need help. $50 billion domestically funded or funded in concessional finance. the most important message of our proposal is a coordinated effort upfront can bring enormous benefits. between now and 2025, the world economy can benefit $9 trillion if we accelerate the exit from the pandemic, of which 60% will go to the developing world, 40% to rich countries. for those who may be still hesitant if this is a good plan, advanced economies can collect a trillion dollars in extra budgetary revenue through taxes because we accelerate the

recovery everywhere. and that is at this point in time the best use of public money one can think of. david: that is an attractive return on investment no matter what you say. several times in that answer you said now, and goodness knows as we watch what is happening in india and brazil, it has to be now, there is no time to wait. can you give the $50 billion now? how long will it take to come up with that kind of money? >> i am encouraged by the talk at the global health summit today. we heard from many countries to step up commitments in financial terms and also in reallocating access vaccines. i can tell you we will continue to press through the meetings that are forthcoming, g7 and g20 meetings, to make sure it is happening. annmarie: imf managing director

kristalina georgieva speaking to david westin. just ahead, we dive into china and their debt riddled financial system. this is bloomberg. ♪

annmarie: good morning, 6:45 in london, this is "daybreak: europe." we will turn our attention to china's her wrong asset management, efforts to clean up the so-called bad bank closely monitored by foreign banks and investors. the inside story of the problems are detailed in our big feature, the big taken today on the bloomberg terminal and website. for more, we are joined by our

reporter. what is the latest going on behind the scenes? the line that caught my attention is the top leadership practicing calligraphy when things were getting messy. >> yeah, what we have learned is regulators are intimately involved with trying to resolve some of the turmoil we've seen at huarong, an extraordinary story at a state owned firm. country exhibit these -- company executives were sending a notice to regulators, and have become accustomed to ad hoc meetings with regulators when bonds started to tumble. manus: there has been serious volatility and they really are reaching in many different directions to quell volatility

bubbles. how would you>> i think so far s relatively mixed. one employee saying they are worried about salary, another saying it is business as usual so far. i think when we think about senior management and mid-level regulators, what we are seeing again is a slow consensus, this idea that huarong too big to fail. the question of what we mean when we say failure, we talk about a large, quasi-sovereign from like this, that feels up for grabs. a firm like this, even if we were to see a moderate cut on the bonds, that could still be a type of failure from an investor point of view. annmarie: what do they need to do to reassure investors about bondholders? rebecca: one is really

interesting is we are seeing it take more and more these days to reinsure investors -- reassure investors. we had commentary from the local media, an opinion piece saying huarong was nowhere near to defaulting on its upcoming bonds. however, we've seen very little recovering in the notes. what investors need is clarity from regulators on what kind of restructuring plan will emerge for the firm. manus: rebecca, thank you very much, the big take on your bloomberg. thank you for joining us. coming up, it is critically important for the region i am in, oil in vincennes -- oil advancing. positive u.s. economic data versus the increase in global supply. the latest right here on "daybreak: europe." this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the real question is whether the republicans will meet the effort the president is showing. it is a sincere effort to move the country forward. the president has been very clear that inaction is not an option. >> i think we are still pretty far apart, that this is the test. this will determine whether or not we can work together in a bipartisan way on an important issue. the other important area where we are far apart is still the money. manus: that was the white house senior advisor cedric richmond and republican senators susan collins speaking on the sundays

about biden's info structure plan. this comes as secretary of state anthony blake and waited on the state of negotiations -- weighed in on the state of negotiations with iran. >> we are waiting to see if they will come into compliance and that is what we are engaged with now. and use that as a platform to build on and try to deal with these other issues. manus: oil is bouncing back today, more signs the u.s. economy is rapidly recovering from the pandemic outweighing concerns about global supply. will iran come back and will the payrolls arrive? let's get to our energy reporter. we are preempting a great deal with the rhetoric because this weekend was pivotal in terms of inspections in iran and that is about eating america back to the jcpoa and a deal on the table.

vaccine optimism seems to be the alpha over iran's supply. >> especially in america, several states at a 50% vaccination rate and more and more people vaccinated every day. you see goldman sachs and citi getting bullish, and in other countries, we saw what happened in china last year when they got the virus under control, demand for oil products a boomed and domestic tourism were high. -- was high. u.s. is the biggest oil consumer in the world. as long as opec stays steady with its discipline in raining and supply, they are looking at a balance with a large deficit the summer as americans hit the road. annmarie: iran with talks

continuing, with the iae getting this is to -- extension, how are they dealing with iranian crude potentially coming back online? dan: as i just mentioned, opec keeping supplies tight has been the main support for the oil market globally. we are still well below pre-covid levels of demand. anymore supply coming on can be dangerous. what the oil market will be watching for in the iran deal is how much of supply is allowed to come on and how fast. iran is sitting on about 100 million barrels of oil in storage on land and off the coast that it could theoretically deploy immediately. what is more likely and the oil market is expecting is some sort of half measure where the u.s. agrees to let them increase oil exports by a certain amount, and

if they can comply with all of the jcpoa and prove they are acting in good faith, unleashing more oil in the future. if you have a scenario like that, it will not be an overwhelming amount of supply this summer and you could still see prices rise. manus: of course we've got just over a week to run until the opec-plus meeting and we know the saudis like to control the narrative in the week preceding. do you think they will give any hand on the accommodation for iran barrels coming back or is it too soon? we are in a three stage reef loading of the oil market from opec less and the saudi supply. does it stay the course and stay with the three stage approach of delivering barrels back to the market? dan: i think the saudis will push for that. you look at the history of opec, it is one of people getting

together when prices are really low and coming together strongly, and as soon as prices start to rise, the bonds start to fray, saudi arabia has done a great job so far of managing to keep people in line. that has been the reason prices have maintained this level at the $60 range this year. i don't think there is any reason saudi arabia will change that. i think the other members, even though they are itching to unleash their full supply, especially countries like the uae, they have to look at the market and realize it is tenuous and they need to hold right now. annmarie: thank you very much for joining us, dan murtaugh, brent on the upside this morning. goldman thinks we could hit $80 even if iranian oil comes back online. oil very different from metals this morning, that is down to china, isn't it? manus: absolutely china,

retaking control of the market on the commodity side. you may have the offer of goldman's $80 on an aggressive return, i give you the bid from barclays, just over $70. mind the gap. this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> good morning. welcome to "bloomberg markets: european open." i am anna edwards. mark cudmore joins me in singapore to take us through all the market action at this hour. cash trading is less than one hour away. europe reacts with outrage after belarus forces a ryanair minsk.