up with how fast fundamentals are improving. >> what we are seeing in the u.s. is a rapid rebound in demand and supply is taking time to adjust. >> if the economy stays as strong as it is, you will get inflation. we see a distant amount of risk that inflation could keep rising. >> the fed strategy at the moment is focus on ambiguity. >> this is bloomberg surveillance tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: bouncing back this morning, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz. futures up on the s&p 500. we advance .5%. we have to begin this program in a way that i don't think we have ever started the show, talking about the forced landing of a ryanair flight in belarus. tom: why don't you go over those headlines, as you have an

affinity with ryanair that lisa and i don't have. ryanair is cooperating but that barely describes it. jonathan: eu leaders will have to respond to this. this is high up on the agenda, for much of that meeting. tom: for americans, it is so important to go back to first principles and get the map out. athens up to latvia, belarus between russia and the baltic states. 116 miles from latvia. we've got carl bildt, the former prime minister of sweden coming up. jonathan: looking forward to that conversation, coming up. lisa: ryanair's chief executive officer coming out and saying this is a case of state-sponsored hijacking. this raises a lot of questions about additional sanctions, although it is hard to see how

many more sanctions could be place on belarus -- placed on belarus. germany coming out and saying they don't want their planes flying over belarus. jonathan: the european union is about to declare the use of that airspace is unsafe. tom: i think the sanctions are already in place, but there is much more that could be done than simply saying we will not fly over the nation. we need to say -- we need to see a solution. russia has to step in and find the boundaries, in that ancient tension back to world war ii. jonathan: all of this ahead of the president's first overseas trip to europe. the s&p, we bounce back by about half of 1%. that is the story. tom: rocketing higher. jonathan: you could call it 41.73.

lisa will run you through as the week progresses. a slightly stronger euro in the mix today. lisa: when are you going to start putting bitcoin on your chart? jonathan: for the morning board? no time soon. tom: a different question. lisa: this is a key question. at what point does this become a metric that people look at every single day and use to determine their market action? fed officials as well as the biggest investors will get it every day. one thing i am looking at, 9:00, the fed is going to be speaking at the consensus crypto asset conference in bridgewater -- conference. very interested to hear about a digital dollar. ray dalio has come out with some skepticism about the crypto assets. curious to see if he has changed his views.

the house committee for financial services, holding a hearing on direct listings and public financing and a host of different things as well as investor protections. how much are we going to reveal, in terms of appetite by regulators to crack down and then a u.s. secretary visits micro technology in virginia, also a company -- also accompanied by bipartisan congress members. semiconductor production in the united states as we see that ongoing chip shortage. jonathan: a quote for the weekend, the nice thing about the stock market is you stop getting your ass kicked on friday at 4:00 p.m. and it generally does not ruin your weekend. i think he was alluding to

bitcoin trades. tom: china with two statements over the last week and you wonder what the next political statement will be, to move out bitcoiners. a theory him as well -- ether eum as well. i think it is an item of interest to so many who are removed from bitcoin. here is the quote from michael darda from m km partners. supply-side shocks by their nature are temporary. if nominal aggregate demand continues to run at rates several orders of magnitude greater than any estimate of potential growth. mike darda joins us now. michael: thank you for having me on. we will get a gdp revision this week, and we have nominal aggregate demand running about

10% annualized rates in the forecast as we move into q2 for the next to continue -- for that to continue. that is not sustainable. it is ok now because the economy is coming out of a deep hole. the idea is that the fed is going to be behind the curve when they start the process. the intention is to wait until we are essentially fully recovered and inflation is above target, before they even get going on monetary tightening. that is quite different than what happened in the past. the risk is that there is some overshoot potential and that these inflationary measures could prove to be more persistent than some officials are making them out to be. tom: you are one of the leading proponents of watching nominal gdp, the behavior itself as you say in your notes. that is the real economy with the overlay of inflation on top. if and when the fed tightens,

what is affected first, inflation or the real economy? jonathan: -- michael: asset markets will be impacted first. we are watching a few variables, in addition to the behavior of nominal gdp. it is a bit backward looking, but we can watch the inflation rates at a very step -- a very steady upward ascent. you look at the havey your of those inflation spreads from march of last year, it has been an incredible rebound. we are watching the behavior of broad money growing very rapidly. much more rapidly than what we saw in the 2007-2009 crash. those variables and how they start to react once the fed gets closer to rate hikes, they will be quite important to the

nominal gdp outlook. lisa: in the notes i was reading over the weekend, there was increasing skepticism over the inflationary theme we keep hearing. part of it stems from efforts to crack down to come -- crackdown on commodity prices, and frankly in china, to reduce the amount of credit in the system. how does that play into your idea that inflation is global and that there are global inflationary pressures? michael: china is using some blunt tools to try and address commodity price inflation. china was also the first in the covid stock and the first out -- covid shock in the first out. -- and the first out. it has obviously been a pretty steep ascent. as long as the global economy continues to recover, and we have europe and parts of asia

way behind where the u.s. and china are, with their virus coverage. as long as there is a global upswing taking shape, that should be helpful to the commodity price backdrop. it has been exaggerated, these markets are subject to volatility and corrections. it is probably a dangerous place to be right now. jonathan: how useful is china's credit impulse? michael: that is a great question. we will watch everything. i'm not sure that it is a perfect predictor of what is going to happen with commodity prices, probably more coincidence if anything. jonathan: mike darda, joining us from m km partners -- from m km partners. payrolls friday, just around the corner.

we got into a long weekend this coming weekend. the reaction has been swift, it has been hard and fast. yet we are still waiting for actual additional sanctions to come from europe to deal with the authorities in belarus. off the back of this grounded plane. tom: i'm surprised we have not heard from more airlines. i did a quick search through the bloomberg, obviously ryanair is coming out with comments. you wonder where the others are. maybe they are waiting to see what the governments will do. there was a real ambivalence over the weekend about the quality of the american consumer. maybe there is a bit of an ebb . jonathan: what gets me right now is that this story is so well-known. we had some blowout pmi's to close out last week. you go through it line by line, prices paid and received, new

orders, the highest since the series began. it is a story you are bored of hearing, because this story is really well-known now. lisa: it is well-known known, but here the unknowns. how much of the higher prices that we are seeing are directly tied to commodities that could potentially be temporary? why exactly is this shortage of labor persisting? we don't understand that exactly. people point to a number of different variables but the answer will determine whether wages can really increase substantially, and that will be the protector of sustained inflation -- the predictor of sustained inflation. until we get that, there are so many unknowns. people look at this and yes they tell a story, but it is unclear if that story will hold true. tom: futures down 1.3%. so much gloom this weekend.

jonathan: you two are fighting. lisa: pendulum of gloom. jonathan: coming up in conversation -- a conversation you don't want to miss, carville -- carl bildt. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: china is accusing the

u.s. of promoting theories that the coronavirus escaped from a lab. the lab has repeatedly denied these claims, including a u.s. state department report that said some researchers became ill as early as the fall of 2019. china calls the claims conspiracy theories intended to divert attention away from the u.s. government's own handling of the coronavirus. there are signs the new variant of the coronavirus in india is easing. more than 222,000 new infections today, the lowest since april 16. while cases may have peaked, covid-19 has now killed more than 300,000 people in india. almost 4500 people died over the past 24 hours as fatalities continue near record levels. a progressive group has started a campaign seeking to push a

supreme court justice to retire so a democratic president can appoint one, calling for stephen -- global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by over 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am but it could group to -- i am ready could group to -- this is bloomberg. berg.

jonathan: from new york city, good morning, alongside tom

keene and lisa abramowicz. here is the price action on the s&p 500, bouncing back 21 points, taking a bite out of last week's loss. in the bond market, yields basically unchanged. foreign exchange, the euro is strong, up about a third of 1%. to round things out quickly, 6485 on wti. the irish prime minister, calling the forced landing of the ryanair flight an act of piracy. it is going to be interesting how we get from this strong rhetoric to sanctions that match that rhetoric, given that this is a country that is already heavily sanctioned. tom: our team was working on it through the weekend. we are scheduled to meet with the former prime minister of sweden, carl bildt. we are following the story out of brussels as well.

the political range of europe has changed. mark shanker is our editor at large. all, when the facts change, president biden will change. suddenly it will be a very different european trip. mark: it certainly will. i have been doing this for quite a long time. it is one of the most bizarre stories i have seen in quite a while. tom: has to be the idea of a russian response. we are dealing with a guy who is predictable in his unpredictable at the. only 116 miles from the baltic states. it is moscow that will have to adjust. marty: joe biden keeps saying that he is looking forward to his meeting with vladimir putin. that has not been set in stone yet. we expect it to happen pretty soon, but that conversation is going to take on a new sense of urgency because of what happened this weekend. jonathan: what can we expect

from that meeting? it is like living in an alternative universe. you hear what europe is going to say and then what russia's response to this is. ryanair has been accused by belarus of trying to politicize the event. how do you have a conversation with someone on the others of the table that sees a complete lee different world to the one you see? marty: it is not unprecedented. when vladimir putin was asked about russian interference in elections, he just said it didn't happen, and that is his reality, whether it is true or not is sort of not important to him. he just wants to make sure that he keeps the west on edge, and he is doing just that. lisa: what is the u.s. response going to be? we have heard from certain european countries with respect to the airspace over belarus. is the u.s. expected to come out with something stronger than just sanctions on an already heavily tensioned country? marty: it is hard to imagine

what more we can do, to sanction belarus. the other factor is that there is a pro-democracy movement in belarus. if you completely isolate them, you are also isolating that movement. they have to be very careful about how they respond. lisa: and this is somewhat paralleled to iran, because the iranian response to the government had been increasingly democratic, at least among the populace. and then when the u.s. crackdown, that became more complicated. now we are getting word from tony blinken and others that they want to return to the iranian nuclear deal that we had before. marty: i think they are interested in getting iran back to the nuclear accord and on iran's part, they would like to sanctions to be eased. that will have implications for oil more than anything else, in terms of the supply that will be put back into the marketplace if the sanctions are lifted. tom: what are you watching in

washington this week? we stumbled on one of the news items that talked about infrastructure not being able to find a bridge to the other side. marty: we have a story this morning about how democrats are becoming increasingly uneasy over joe biden's tax plans. that balance with some attempt to do a deal on infrastructure this week with the republicans, it is going to be very interesting to see how that plays out. tom: the heart of the matter given the politics we know, he doesn't have the votes, right? marty: it is not clear if he has the votes. the one thing biden has said is inaction is not acceptable. he will twist arms and somehow manage to get something done on taxes and infrastructure in my opinion. jonathan: it makes you wonder if we have seen progress over the last couple of weeks.

susan collins speaking over the weekend on the scope of the bill, and just one line gets everyone's attention. what is infrastructure? they are still having that conversation. what kind of progress has been made over the last several weeks? marty: i think there is an agreement on what traditional infrastructure is, and the republicans are willing to go there if joe biden is willing as well. it is all the soft infrastructure stuff that the republicans don't want any part of, but i do think joe biden will reach some deal. jonathan: can we wrap things up by talking about big phil getting it done? nicholson, how romantic was that, to see him come back and win another major? marty: they talk about phil mickelson being 50 years old. that is a young man, but that is extraordinary. you also had tom brady, the

oldest quarterback to win a super bowl this year. tom: i remember the senior moment where i said go and the skates said no. i remember it was in the vicinity of 42 in my amateur state. putting at that level at age 50? marty: pretty good, but you remember gordie howe. jonathan: what we would do, to see tiger and phil together again. wouldn't that be something? marty: that would be great. it remains to be seen if tiger will golf again. jonathan: i just thought we should get phil mickelson in. tom: what we've got going. jonathan: i was waiting for that. you will be playing on thursday

night. guess who will be playing on tuesday and wednesday night? back in the champions league. tom: this old thing, they both delivered. lisa: he is just trying to come up with a segue. both of them were there. jonathan: i think the majority of our audience is probably interested in who won the golf over the weekend. lisa: did you watch? jonathan: a bit of it. i usually watch the final round. tom: i watched the red sox. jonathan: i have seen your t-shirts. tom: they are destined. lisa: red sox are such piety for him. he cannot even talk about them. jonathan: coming up, wells fargo

senior portfolio manager, going into that, bond yields are unchanged. equity futures are up 21% -- equity futures are up 21. this is bloomberg. ♪

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jonathan: monday morning, here is the price action. futures up about 21 points on the s&p. 1/10 of 1% on the nasdaq. a story we've gotten familiar with over the past week. we bounce back from a week of losses with a small -- with a morning of small gains. governor brainard, and we have -- on deck as well. that is the fed speak. we will talk about the supply as well. the dreaded sevens coming on -- coming up. we need some music to go with the dreaded sevens.

switching up the board and finishing on euro-dollar. a stalemate for euro-dollar. tom: well said. jonathan: well said kit jukes of socgen. tom: a stalemate really colors the market. it is a churn out there. the one exception maybe would be green on the screen, equities higher as well. margaret patel is with us, from wells fargo. i am fascinated by taking the middle ground in this time of polarity, cyclicals versus tech and the rest of it. what is it like, managing a diversified portfolio, to a middle and balanced outcome? margaret: right now, i think over the next year, growth from all asset classes are going to be pretty muted. stocks may be missing, and the

bonds in the single digits. we are looking for low volatility, short-term churning not giving you any real insight. jonathan: when you look through the bond yield curve, what i have identified every time we get a did a surprise for upside or the downside is it seems to be a lot more movement in the belly of the curve. why is that? what is the dynamic at play? margaret: i think because the short end in the long end are controlled by the fed, the only way you can really -- is in the middle part of the curve. i like the 10 year because it is still in the whole middle of the curve, stuck in the trading range. jonathan: how would you express that move? how would you express that

trade? margaret: i think we are still stuck in the middle. i think the market goes up, when there is maybe negative sentiment and they swing back to the lower end. i don't think those rates are going any well. the fed has made it clear that they will not allow any part of the curve to get away from them. lisa: that is the full facing credit story. what about the corporate credit story? we have seen morgan stanley come out and downgrade their corporate credit to neutral because they think it is priced to perfection, in a world with rising rates, as well as perhaps peak growth rates already in the recovery. margaret: the peak growth rate, i would definitely agree on. i think we are still stuck in the more or less trading range for the foreseeable future, and

the world looks pretty perfect. we should have continued economic growth. corporations, especially in the u.s. are in great shape. i don't think you can expect to see a big jump in volatility. i think it is more of the same. lisa: what is the least priced in scenario? so much inflation has been built in that a dis-inflationary environment -- what is your take on this? margaret: i don't buy into the inflation story. i don't think that is going to happen. i think we have this push up temporarily that is going to fade as we see growth fade in the second half of the year. tom: what do you see in conservative stocks when you combine dividend growth with share buyback? is it traceable or is it such a

one-off right now in a boom economy that you can't really develop a trend? margaret: you have to look at industries and company results. i don't think you can really play some of these things like value growth and so forth. we look for companies that should still have sustainable growth, better than the average stock, and take the dividend where it comes, whether it is high or low, because dividends are still pretty low. tom: are you husbanding cash right now? margaret: i see very low risk in the sense of a big draw in the equity -- a big drop in the equity markets, so we think you have to take the market as it comes and look for the best in the bond market, look for where it can do best in the equities. with think the fed has pretty

much told us we aren't going to have any big volatility in the financial markets. jonathan: thank you, margaret patel, senior portfolio manager at wells fargo. we have to find some space to do this. i wasn't aware, congratulations to lisa abramowicz, who is the proud recipient of a gracie award from the alliance for women in media, for her work on the bloomberg radio special, generation interrupted. lisa, congratulations. lisa: thank you, i really appreciate it. i'm glad you didn't do it earlier because there is plenty else going on in the world. one thing i will say is that on this show and all the shows on bloomberg, we have done a good job of trying to highlight all of the ramifications, which we won't know for a long time, from the covid pandemic. jonathan: what did we learn on generation interrupted? lisa: it was taking a look at the younger generations, those

in school and in the primary grades as well as college and just after, and how the disruption to their career trajectories that have a big impact on their longer-term earnings potential, in addition to social development and how this is a big concern for economists. jonathan: very cool. we are in the presence of greatness. lisa: i will try not to get carried away. tom: very good. right now with what we have observed over the weekend, our team has worked overnight to find the voice, the right voices to describe the geography of europe and the politics of europe. we start strong on this monday with carl bildt, former prime minister of sweden for an extended time. the minister of foreign affairs but far more than that, he has applied his public life to the fractured continent, moving from athens. his work in kosovo and all of the balkan states as well.

he is the cochair of the european council on foreign relations. thank you for joining us. there has to be a response, less with the original assertive belarus and far more from moscow. what can europe and european political leaders asked of mr. putin this morning? carl: you are entirely right. there has to be a very firm response. this is piracy, banditry in airspace. if this is tolerated by lukashenko, it could happen anywhere in the world. it is a threat to the global safety and security of airspace everywhere. firm action has to be taken. european leaders are meeting in brussels for other issues. i think they should declare belarus as one where you should not fly over belarus airspace

because you might be subject to hijacking. god knows what this man is capable of doing. see what can be done within that context. there might also be a case for wider economic sanctions against belarus if they don't follow the international direction. russia is supporting belarus in this particular action. they don't think it is nice but they will be supporting belarus. tom: carl bildt, you wrote an essay on foreign affairs that i will play off of, that this event will reveal belarus and reveal russia. we forget these distances. 116 miles, it is a one hour 30 minute flight to stockholm. describe the closeness of the

tension, the geography of the tension, along with what this will reveal about these two states. carl: that is very true. if you look at the statistics, belarus is the country and all of the world where you have the highest numbers of -- because belarus people like to go shopping in warsaw, or wherever. they've got this thug, lukashenko, who has been in since the fall of the soviet union. he has been able to consolidate, dependent on a couple huge state owned enterprises. the economy is miserable. the russians have had to bail them out now and then. he completely manipulated an election.

since then, he has been trying to preserve his power by oppression against the european nation, which is close to us. it is much closer to us then russia or london is. jonathan: this is the political dilemma isn't it? how do you punish or sanction a government without affecting the people? what kind of decision do you make? carl: if you look back on the discussions, if we sanction heavily the belarus economy, russia and moscow has been keen on integrating belarus even more closely than is the case. that has been the consideration so far. in this particular case, there

is a downside to different sanctions but in this case, what he has done is outrageous. the downside of doing nothing is far greater than the downside of these particular sanctions. jonathan: do you think europe is united on how to respond to this? carl: this happened literally hours ago. i think prime minister's and presidents going to brussels, discussing exactly what to do. but -- ireland demanding the close of belarus and's -- belarus airspace. i think the polish prime ministers said something along those lines. very strong language coming out of brussels.

they said the decision-making bodies must be called in. they are discussing what exactly can be done. there is no blueprint for how you deal with this. the greek promised her -- the flight that was hijacked was coming from athens. the greek promised her has also been very strong in his language. lisa: in the meantime, the kremlin has said this is not disrupted president vladimir putin's plan to meet with president biden at the summit next month. what would you hope the u.s. response could be, or would be to some of this? how much with the u.s. be expected to work in tandem with europeans as were presented by yourself? carl: i'm quite certain we will see close coordination across the atlantic. there was a very strong

statement from the chairman of the senate foreign affairs committee as well as the chairman of the foreign affairs committee in the u.k. and german parliaments. they were calling for translate to coordination. i think that will happen -- for transatlantic coordination. i think that will happen. lisa: who is the center of power, when it comes to determining the response of europe to belarus, as well as to russia, which seems to be supporting belarus's actions? carl: i think it is going to be brussels. the heads of state and government are meeting in brussels this night -- this evening and tomorrow, so you will have all of the decision-making power of the eu in one spot this evening and tomorrow. that, i think will be decisive,

and then obviously talking to london, talking to washington. tom: i need to go back to the linkage of moscow and minx. belarus will be treated separately. how does nato, how does brussels link moscow into their actions? carl: they will publish stay on the sidelines. i don't think we would like it to become -- by the way. the role of moscow is going to be important, for brussels and washington to send a message that we see this as an infringement of international rules. we will expect them to not necessarily support us, but to

stay calm where actions are taken against lukashenko. jonathan: fantastic to catch up with you, and what a morning for it. carl bildt, the european council on foreign relations. the european summit is starting with a pre-summit at 3:00 p.m., brussels time. tom: like our meeting at 3:00 a.m.. jonathan: to carl's point, when i asked if europe is united, he said it is still early. the bottom line is the airlines have to operate right now, this morning. what to do with that airspace. tom: looking at the radar maps over europe, i have been searching on the bloomberg. i am no expert at this, but i agree, it has to be an immediate response. how do you get on a plane and fly over belarus right now? jonathan: with a lot of nervousness i imagine. let's reset.

the s&p 500 up 19. yields unchanged. foreign-exchange, kit jukes calling it a stalemate. a stronger euro, up about a third of percent -- up about a third of 1%. wti at 64.79. tom: the american recovery advances as well. the pandemic weekend in new york city was extraordinary. nuance is showing, the opening of the city. we will be speaking with one of the mayoral candidates later this morning. with that, there were essays of what america should do. a john hopkins bloomberg school of public health by steam, joining us this morning. scott galloway, a good friend of the program had an important essay this week about how the u.s. will project its vaccine excellence abroad.

do we have the supply of vaccines to meet our needs and at the same time, really begin to distribute to troubled nations? >> we can do a lot. we certainly have enough to meet our needs, but it is going to take even more than that because there are so many people in the world and in countries like india where the virus has really been running amok. i think part of the answer is the u.s. manufacturing vaccines for the world and the other part of the answer is the u.s. being a real team player in building production capacity across the world. tom: do you see other nations looking at the best practices of the united kingdom, new zealand, the united nations -- edit states and other nations who have gotten this right? are we learning what they are done -- i we learning what they have done and catching up? joshua: they may not see it that way. they may see it as the united

states has vaccines and we want vaccines. certainly we have shown that the vaccines in the unit it states in the unit it states and other countries are very effective -- in the united states and other countries are very effective. i think that is a very strong lesson for countries, certainly for public health measures that countries put into place. i'm thinking more of the east asian countries, new zealand, because of its unique geography has some advantages and it has done a tremendous job. taiwan, all of those different countries have different public-health lessons. with the united states, the investment in vaccines, other countries want to do that too. lisa: you mentioned india and the variant that has been spreading very quickly is potentially 50% more contagious than even the variant that was

first identified in the united kingdom. what do you make of the studies? joshua: there is an explanation for why we have 70 people sick in india, combined with the fact that they let their guard down and had these major gatherings, it is a toxic mix that gives you astonishingly terrible outbreaks. there is also evidence that the vaccines do work against this variant. i think it is even more important for us to think about the global vaccine supply. lisa: this raises a question for travel and travel bans. a patchwork of guidance in europe about countries that are or not fly zones and fly lists. do you think this is the right way to go, given how it has been a patchwork of tracking these variants, and ultimately it comes down to getting vaccinated, getting fully inoculated and then gradually adapting to a new life? joshua: i don't think it is

going to be sustainable to be putting on and taking off different travel restrictions, especially when the restrictions are so foreign. often the travel restrictions don't apply to citizens of your own country. certainly they can be infected and bring the virus in. i think vaccination, particularly -- really has to be the bedrock of a control strategy. tom: headlines coming out right now, and this came up in conversation this weekend. the idea of the overlay of pneumonia on all of this virus pain that we have had. pneumonia is a bacteria and covid is a virus. the headline is pfizer is studying a covid-19 booster. is the next step here some kind of virus bacterium combination

of a vaccine? joshua: i haven't read that, but i know not enough people are vaccinated against that bacteria. getting both of those is a good thing, so i could see the logic. obviously there will be some extra study needed, to make sure those can both be given at the same time. tom: what should our viewers and listeners do if they observe cases coming down in the vicinity of 20,000? deaths per day well under 1000 american -- under 1000 in america. what should they take from that? joshua: it can go down exponentially and it can go up exponentially. this gives people more confidence in doing things they had not done before. that is all good. however, and i talked to a professor at the school of

public health about this last week, what modeling is consistently showing is that even if it goes down, it could go up in the fall. the single most important factor to keep us from another false urge is the vaccination rate. let's say the vaccination rate is 5%, and that -- is 65% in the cases are going down. that is not mission accomplished. if we can get it to 80% by the fall, then we are cutting off the ability of the virus to have a surge. lisa: at the same time, there is a social implication from continuing some restrictions and social distancing. i was reading an article about opioid overdoses and how they skyrocketed over the past 14 months. people in isolation, drug abuse issues becoming more prevalent. there is a health impact to continuing the social isolation. is it time to start moving into a post-covid world, a post-pandemic world were covid

is just another virus that we deal with, akin to the flu and the people who got vaccinated will be more protected and those who have not, it is their liability? joshua: two points. first with respect to opioid overdoses and many of the consequences, i think it is a mistake to take these as consequences of the response. covid kept people isolated, and that happened regardless of the response or we would have incredible death rates from the virus. now that it has gone down, there are new opportunities to provide treatment. my wife runs an addiction treatment program. they expanded different services during the pandemic, and it is important for government to turn their attention to this, for people to have the same urgency for that crisis that they had for covid. that will manifest in many ways and it is very important right now. i think we are not there yet.

if we can get vaccination rates up, we can have 30 or 70 deaths a week from covid, which may be a manageable amount, instead of 2500. that is what the models show as possible by the fall. i am not ready and i disagree that it is time for us to just move on to other things. we need to keep our focus, vaccinate against covid and prevent a resurgence that could claim thousands of lives. jonathan: thank you, sir. some research on the south side. we have a movement on discovery, to neutral. they say we give high marks to discovery for the boldness of their action in the long-term value creation. it looks like it will be stuck over the midterm. tom: it is not a surprise at all, to see them take it down to

a neutral. jonathan: in the middle. hold. neutral. coming up, matt one back.

>> economists and everyone, companies, are having a really difficult time keeping up with how fast fundamentals are improving. >> in the u.s., we are seeing a rapid rebound in demand, and supply is taking time to adjust. >> if the economy stays this strong, fueled by the stimulus, we get inflation. >> a decent amount of risk for inflation to keep rising and staying higher for longer. >> have to focus on ambiguity. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." jonathan: from new york city and to our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance." alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. we advanced 20 points on the s&p 500. we begin with the most bizarre story,