tv Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Bloomberg May 24, 2021 7:00pm-9:00pm EDT
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the u.s. warns americans not to travel to japan due to the covid state of emergency, delia fresh blow ahead of the olympics. -- dealing a fresh blow ahead of the olympics. >> bitcoin issues after elon musk indicate support for bitcoin miners to go green. haidi: inflation fears potentially play out in the start of the asian markets. sophie: after's asian stocks little changed monday, some changes tuesday -- some gains tuesday with a rate decision from indonesia. gdp from singapore and trading from thailand. earlier consumer confidence from south korea hitting a three or high. commodities, oil holding above $66 new york crew jumping the most in a month as markets assess the iran nuclear deal. brent could hit $80 in the third quarter with growing demand for energy absorbing iranian supply.
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and possibility of a drop in brent to the 40's -- $40 if output is ramped up aggressively. -- closer to erasing year-to-date losses. base case for gold still in $1600 until the first fed rate hike -- pulling up a chart as we wrap up the final week in may, a commodities rally that had stalled making for small move in either directions for a commodity index into years. as we saw commodities pressured with china flagging concerns around elevated prices although we see mixed messages there. shery: the latest on the pandemic, the u.s. advising citizens against travel to japan. the country struggling to
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convince its own public and the international community it ready for the tokyo olympics. our health care reported michelle cortez joins us with the latest. japan has been struggling with trying to rein in infections for a while, so why is this trouble warning coming now? >> hospitals in japan are starting to struggle with caring for people coming in with coronavirus cases. the country had enormous success early in the outbreak keeping coronavirus at very low levels. but within the last few months they have seen an uptick and now are getting to the point where there is concern that it is growing and they are to overwhelm hospitals, and may be more aggressive steps need to be taken. in several places they have lockdowns and warnings within cities in japan. haidi: so, when it comes to the
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tokyo olympics we are hearing this travel advisory warning and we have heard a reaction from the u.s. opc saying they have been made aware of the updated state department advisory. how does this potentially impact athletes headed to tokyo and the perception of the games going ahead? >> it is so interesting, people have been concerned about the olympics. the idea of bringing in athletes from around the world with the potential of mixing variants from different location. this is flipping that on its head. now they are saying there is an issue in japan itself. so it is not that the athletes and companions may be bringing something, it is that within japan they might overwhelm the health care system. certainly we have heard there are mitigation processes in place. they will do a lot of testing and people are not required to be vaccinated, athletes are not
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required to be vaccinated. but pfizer and beyond tech have offered to donate vaccine for those not otherwise able to get it. it will be interesting to see. everyone at this point is saying the games will go on. we have not heard from anyone this would derail the plant -- plan to liv-ex. -- we have not heard from anyone that this would derail the planned olympics. haidi: our health care reported with the latest. impact with analysis on markets, the director of investment strategies for wealth management. great to have you with us. to what extent do we see these virus outbreaks across asia spilling into concerns and equity markets? taiwan stocks closed higher yesterday. japan remains good buying opportunity. does it change your perspective or positioning for the region?
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>> the covid-19 situation is worrying and asia. you have spikes in several parts of asia, bangkok trying to reel in the problem. it is not going to go away anytime soon and it will come in waves and i thing markets have sort of internalized it. it is discounted, that covid-19 will be with us for quite a while. so any sharp tips in the market we felt would be an opportunity for investors to accumulate. because the medium term picture has not changed in our view. it is still positive on the medium-term, global economic recovery still on a firm footing. and earnings growth is also very, very strong. we are seeing a v-shaped recovery in earnings and economies. from time to time it will be affected by covid-19 surges but we think governments around the world have benefited in the last 14 months really in covid-19 and have learned a lot. we have confidence the situation
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will be controlled to an extent in most parts of asia at least through various measures. so i think the longer term picture, investors should not lose sight of the longer term picture. haidi: where you sent on the inflation debate? we had the fed attempting to sue the markets again overnight. but here in asia, whether china or south korea or other countries that of seen a rise in inflation numbers. is it still transitory for this part of the world? >> well, inflation is trending up. we feel it is normal because essentially economies are recovering. so demand is pushing inflation numbers up. there is also supply bottleneck and officials have said repeatedly we think it is temporary supply bottleneck. that as the pandemic eases bottlenecks will ease's we think that is transitory.
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inflation is in the forefront for investors, that will cause market volatility, something thing we cannot run away from. investors look be on the next 3-4 months, maybe over the next 12-18 months the picture starting to look even better. so we think inflation will not be a big problem. we think it well, the numbers will eventually come off, maybe not as much as we would like to see, but nevertheless we do not think it is a big problem. we do not think the fed is about to tighten policy anytime soon. once again we think any sharp tips with inflation concerns we would see a buying opportunity in several parts of asia and maybe around the world as well. shery: two point earlier, this gtv chart on the bloomberg showing how asia stocks have underperformed and the timing corresponding to coronavirus cases around the region but as
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you said how much of this is an opportunity given you a since are also going to be looking more attractive. where would you go, in that case? >> you're right, if you look at asia, asian equities based on msci asia index and the follow-up 12 month price earnings ratio, msci asia is trading one standard deviation above the five-year average, and to me that is not really high. it is just below one standard deviation relative to the five-year average so that is not very high. with interest rates as low as they are now, folks can afford to -- the pboc -- that folks can -- can afford to expand from where they are now. a pullback in valuations makes -- more attractive. one thing we like it singapore. singapore -- leveraged players,
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the global economy recovers, the singapore a comedy will benefit singapore economy will benefit. unless singapore sees a resurgence in covid. and you have a lot of value cyclical stocks on the singapore stock markets. plus singapore offers one of the highest dividend yields in asia. that makes a strong case for singapore. aside from singapore, china, indonesia, some markets we are overweight on, but generally we feel you know asia, having pulled back, should do quite well, medium-term. shery: we are going to get final first-quarter gdp numbers out of singapore. does this factor into your calculations that potentially the monetary authority is returning to gradual appreciation -- ? >> it may still be early days. we are seeing a resurgence of covid-19 here, and singapore, the government is trying to rein
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in inflation numbers. still to early for central banks to do anything too aggressive. wait, watch, see what happens. although numbers may turn out to be relatively good, it does not mean that the authorities are going to step in and tighten policy. i think still early days. there still room to wait and watch. shery: from oc bt bank wealth management, great to have you here. still ahead, the outlook. and china clumping down on excessive speculation. next, a wild ride for bitcoin again. this is bloomberg. ♪
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--"bloomberg daybreak: asia." belarus and a passenger jet and arrest of a journalist on board. banning use of airspace. sanctions targeting look a single could be imposed. -- lukashenko. russia backing de la rue is calling its explanation reasonable. -- chinese president xi jinping told rouhani in a phone call he supports reasonable demands from tehran on nuclear issues. u.s. secretary of state anthony blinken set a deal is a priority. separately around agreed to extend an agreement by one month following continued surveillance of is installation -- of its installations.
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secretary of state anthony blinken to the middle east this week to firm up the cease-fire between israel and hamas -- and palestinians. set to meet leaders in israel, cairo, and a month. -- amman. china is pushing back against a wall street journal report about researchers who fell second wuhan lab. the paper says the trio worked out though wuhan institute of virology in 2019. china's foreign minister says the report is not true and accused the u.s. of hype. they're the first outbreak was confirmed previously denied workers getting sick. -- an area where the first up was confirmed, previously denied workers are getting sick. haidi: breaking news country garden property developer raising $2 million u.s. in
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placement -- ust $2 billion -- raising $2 billion u.s. and had been expecting the company to raise $1 million through also $500 million through a zero convertible coupon bond. we knew they were selling just over 100 million shares $74 .25 two$75.5 hong kong apiece up compared to monday's price and the convertible bond has a $1.55 billion hong kong dollar upside option so that may have been in play. country garden says this is an initial conversion price, hong kong $97.83, higher than the indicated range expected selling at just over $5 billion hong kong in convertible bonds, and also saying they raised a total of $2 billion in that placement, and the convertible bond,
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zero-coupon bond sale. shery: let's turn back to bitcoin in the wild ride. this continues after elon musk tweeted about talks with crypto miners concerning energy use says -- energy usage, lifting sentiment. ray dalio sees an exit. -- season the stencil -- ray dalio sees an existential risk ahead. >> right now it is not such a big deal. fighting it is more of a big deal. that is it. because it is not that big a deal. as a becomes a bigger deal, and more of a threat, let's a people want to sell their bonds. and they want to buy bitcoin, and they want to do that in the bigger way.
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like buying gold or something, in a bigger way. and then there is more transaction. they lose control over that, and that is an existential risk. so, yes, that is connected. the more we create savings and it, -- in it, the more you might say, i would rather have bitcoin , personally, i would rather have bitcoin then a bond, and, and then, the more that happens,, um, and it goes into bitcoin and it does not go into credit, and then they lose control of it, so yeah, that is a risk. shery: ray dalio my founder of bridgewater associates. on bitcoin the latest with su keenan. the token ended up having its biggest intraday gain so far after another tweet from the london mosque after a possible
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-- elon musk after a possible use addressing energy concerns. su: elon musk continued to rock the price of bitcoin in the latest session. at one point sending the world's most widely traded additional quite up 19%. -- widely traded bitcoin up 19%. michael seller, another bitcoin booster, tweeted they held with north american miners sunday to discuss energy use transparency. he recalled tweets from musk last week about its carbon footprint, how it made it undesirable, set off a lot of this volatility. the group agreed to form a bitcoin mining council to standardize energy reporting. bitcoin shot up on the tweet, and came within striking distance of $40,000, before paring gains.
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remember it fell as low as $31,000 and change over the weekend, half its peak price, a dizzying run in the past few days. crypto related stocks also shot up to session highs shortly after the tweet, these include tesla and microstrategy which have digital coins on their balance sheets, as well as other stocks with direct exposure to cryptocurrencies and the blockchain technology. if you go into the bloomberg you can see how while the volatility has been, as volatile as this asset class has been, the latest round really giving a lot of investors a white knuckle ride, and causing the liquidation of at least one million accounts according to one yesterday-- . shery: 30 day volatility, what is wall street saying about this especially in terms of institutional players? su: edison excellent question --
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it is an excellent question. let's dive into another bloomberg chart. you see what a portfolio manager may be concerned about, volatility, if you at 1% exposure to bitcoin this year to your portfolio, your returns have shot up exponentially. if you look at that when you're chart for bitcoin, it is up three hunter percent over the year -- it is up 300% over the air but from december up five hunter percent and that has every portfolio manager on wall street and around the world, taking a close look. goldman sachs put out a multipart report, generally positive on crypto, talking about how either white have an edge -- ether, my have an edge. there are observed -- how ether, might have an edge. and how elon musk has an uncanny ability to move markets. we know it was his tweet two
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weeks ago on not accepting bitcoin anymore for tesla cars, that started around the volatility, and it intensified last week when he tweeted about his concern about environmental use and energy. he put out another tweet in support saturday, which seem to halt some selling, and briefly boosted bitcoin a percent. and then the tweet that came out late in the u.s. monday session boosted bitcoin up to its best day of the year. intraday, before it fell off yet again. achieve strategists expressed concern that if the market continues to see well swings based on elon musk's tweets it will be a big setback for this asset class. if i could see wild swings on the tweets of one person takes away legitimacy of an asset class, and this is a topic that is starting to gain traction. shery: bloomberg su keenan with the latest on bitcoin. all those crypto moves.
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we take you to a life press conference from the european commission president ursula von der leyen, at the end of the first and the eu summit in brussels. she is talking about economic sanctions against belarus for the forced landing of orion airplane. -she says- ryanair plane. she says the eu will deny access to airports for belarus, as 27 leaders are meeting in brussels, and discussing economic sanctions against belarus after the forced landing of that airplane. you can continue watching the press conference on liv if you are bloomberg subscriber. also coming up this week, other
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haidi: a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. a firm in india caught up in a label dispute --workers to stop work on fears of covid-19. workers challenging exemption granted the auto industry from lockdown rules. the company says it is taking precautions including the number works just -- work shifts. they maintain they need to keep the factory running to meet orders. nio surged after its production partner will double monthly output by expanding capacity. the group will boost capacity to 240,000 units annually to it
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will be able to roll out 20,000 cars a month. nio said in march the current monthly capacity was 10,000 units. blockchain and digital currency platform doubled after raising money from investors including anderson horowitz. the company was valued at $500 million in the funding round. one called it rocket fuel and says there eyeing a traditional ipo as soon as this year and they did not rule out a spac merger. merrill lynch revamping training for 3000 new hires, guidelines will include a ban on cold calling perspective clients and participants will be directed to use internal referrals are linked in messages. the length of the training will be cut in half, to 18 months, with the goal of graduating 1000 advisors per year in the next few years. next, the outlook for metals, as
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beijing vows to rein in it speculation, putting a dent in the blistering commodities rally. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ ♪ look, if your wireless carrier was a guy you'd leave him tomorrow. not very flexible. not great at saving. you deserve better... xfinity mobile. now they have unlimited for just $30 a month... $30. and they're number one in customer satisfaction. his number... delete it. i'm deleting it. so, break free from the big three. xfinity internet customers, switch to xfinity mobile and get unlimited with 5g included for $30 on the nations fastest, most reliable network. (announcer) the core is key to losing weight, getting back in shape, and feeling good. introducing the aero trainer, designed to strengthen your core, flatten your stomach, and relieve stress and back pain. it conforms to your body and increases muscle activity. abs, back, obliques, hips, and glutes.
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their taxes. the democratic senator wants the agency to be part of the approval process. the treasury department says added enforcement could capture an additional $700 billion in taxes. a petition calling for the resignation of south korea's financial services regulator who plans to tax cryptocurrencies gains has collected thousands of signatures. it was said that the government has no obligation to tax crypto investors. it is planned to impose a 20% tax. singapore's airport will reportedly impose stricter virus control measures at its terminals. a newspaper says the airport will separate staff handling ingoing and outgoing travelers in two different zones. the new measures are said to
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take effect june 13. a cluster has grown to 108 cases as of sunday. officials and taiwan has increase -- have increased the timeline between the doses of astrazeneca from 10 weeks to 16. that will allow more drugs for more people as the kingdom deals with the biggest increase in cases since the pandemic. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am vonnie quinn and this is bloomberg. haidi: let's take a look at how we are setting up for major market openings in asia. looking like a muted start in asia. futures are looking higher as we sawtek lead the gains on wall street. this as fed officials downplayed inflation woes. blackrock is cautioning markets may be underpricing medium-term inflation risks. we have seen price pressures on
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china with a jump in ppi being underpinned by the rally in commodity prices and the stronger yuan has been a boon when increasing those commodity import cost. it is trying to decelerate the pace at the rally is seen as being too quick. the offshore yuan was climbing on monday. check out commodity prices. crude holding near a $68 per barrel price. goldman saying they do see brent in the $80 owned by the fourth quarter as they do expect that energy will be able to absorb the supply. shery: commodities are under pressure after china stepped up
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its fight against soaring commodity prices. our next test says commodities are a contrarian view. great to have you with us. could this be the spike in prices before the end of a commodities boom? >> i think we have been able to survive the year in an environment where people talk about commodities. if you look at commodity prices, passing a 2011 high. silver is still below the 1980 peak. for most commodities, we are significantly low anything we have seen in history. and from a supply point of view, it is nearest to say that -- since then i'm a we have seen rates falling on the
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profitability of miners. haidi: -- shery: how much of this is to do with the need for assets given the echo economic policy? -- macroeconomic policy? >> the economies are opening up. the supply side is really struggling to keep up with a new supply. if you look at the monetary side, if you look back about a year ago, the exposure investors had to the commodity space is probably the lowest ever seen. if you go back to neutrality, you can easily double the exposure. today, it takes roughly -- percent of total assets.
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from that point of view, the money flow -- if you look at the mania we have in the crypto and other things -- we have real assets deleveraging and is the perfect counterbalance in any portfolio. haidi: when it comes to opportunities that are still well-placed, you actually still like silver. >> yes, silver for me is the standout because it is a monetary tool and an economic tool. as you are building up electrification, the demand for silver is building steadily at a time and we see supply falling rapidly and due to covid, particularly in latin america, it is struggling to rebuild any production. at the same time, it is a really
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important will for smaller investors to have an exposure to precious metals. they can afford to buy an ounce of silver. and building an exposure as a hedge will serve well. haidi: what about the retail component? that has been the concern of chinese authorities. the speculative behavior has not been driven by institutional investors necessarily or end-users. >> i think it is nice to hear that the people on the street are creating the volume in the markets. this is so immense that the smaller retail investor is -- blaming the small guy on a price
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change behavior is like actually dropping a few drops of oil into a river and calling it flooding. it is just a joke. shery: before we let you go, tell us a little bit about how more people are looking for higher quality materials especially in this day and age of esg. >> it is not just esg but all electrification. you can go and buy a handbag and you can buy a cheap one for $100 and if you go to retail it is $3500 plus. if you have a mineral that has a lot of treatment to meet the requirements of the buyers, your cost for production is going up. where as if you have a high quality product, and production costs are coming down, profits
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are expanding and you as an and producer are the beneficiary. if you have high iron ore content, there might be a $60 discount but at the high-end, you might have an $80 premium. almost 70% of the underlying process -- and that is true with many of the minerals. haidi: really great to have you with us. the managing director at swiss asia capital. we are getting an alert from a press conference taking place at the moment. victorian health authorities saying covid-19 gathering restrictions has -- have been imposed on greater melbourne. this is coming after a cluster of four covid-19 cases in one family were detected in the north of melbourne. the mpc imposing another new
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local covid case since monday which would be a total of five cases. we had three of those cases with close family contacts. the source of infections or unknown. coming up next come up one potential clean alternative to fuel lies in hydrogen but asian nations are protected to have some of the highest costs in the world. we will be discussing the outlook ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪berg. ♪
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shery: we are counting down to the start of trading. stories we are watching. in tokyo, client -- fresh doubts to hold the olympics. the u.s. cautioning its citizens against traveling to japan. a local media report says an advisor to the prime minister has resigned. facing a backlash after belittling the state of emergency of the country in a tweet. and a top toyota supplier is teaming up with honeywell to build electric motors for new aircraft designed to move people and cargo across congested cities. in south korea, consumer sentiment has risen to the
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highest since june 2018. in the latest bank of korea survey, that is been buoyed by strong first-quarter growth and a vaccine rollout improving. the central bank will also be releasing household credit numbers. watch out for those because household debt has been accelerating fast in south korea chaz constrained what the be ok can do. and the korea exchange will release its index member changes. for the kospi and the k rx benchmarks. haidi: with south korea vowing to halt finances to coal plants, they did not announce any new emissions target. there is one potential clean solution and that lies in hydrogen. the rise in green hydrogen made from solar or wind electricity as an alternative. it is projected to have one of
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the highest production costs in the world. let's bring in our hydrogen analyst, martin. what are the implications, the cost implications at the moment you crunch the numbers for using this form of new about energy? -- renewable energy? martin: take a step back. the idea of using hydrogen is not new. it has been around for at least 50 years or more. it has typically been connect with cars. the idea of using hydrogen as a fuel for cars we have seen for a while including a wave in the to thousands and now there is another one. what is different this time is hydrogen is not only touted as an idea for cars which we do not think is the best way to use hydrogen. it is a way to deep carbon eyes some sectors of -- dec
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arbonize some sectors. in terms of the cost, most hydrogen is produced from fossil fuels and the carbon from the fossil fuels is not captured. most of this hydrogen is the problem right now and not the solution. we need to clean it up first and that can be done by capturing the carbon or produce it from reading electricity. we think producing it from green electricity will become cheaper and cheaper. shery: most of the hydrogen used today is made from fossil fuels which means its production releases a lot of co2. how will that change? martin: that is what i just
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mentioned. you can solve that in two ways. capture the carbon from the fossil fuel process or you can produce it from renewable energy. today, we think it would be cheaper to capture the carbon in most countries and put it underground. but as we get closer to the end of the decade, in most of the countries, it should get cheaper to produce it from renewable energy and water. we think hydrogen could get cheaper to produce from renewable energy -- renewable electricity. and even cheaper then hydrogen from fossil fuels, without carbon abatement by 2050. haidi: which countries and companies are most likely to benefit? martin: exporting countries have a pretty good shot at benefiting including some of the usual
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suspects in southern europe or northern africa that have pipeline connections for natural gas to larger countries that can be converted to hydrogen. in terms of asian countries, or aipac, australia and some latin american countries like chile and even for the u.s. or canada. in terms of companies, the companies that produce hydrogen from renewables will quickly benefit quite a lot as well as those that produce or uses the hydrogen like turbine makers for example or ammonia producers. shery: we have breaking news. we are getting car gills -- cargills profit numbers.
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this coming as the commodity giant is tapping the bond markets. we are getting from that data released by the trading house that they have reached the $4.3 billion in net income during the first nine months of the fiscal year. with the commodities boom, we had suspected that it was performing well but this is the first time data has become available. it is really breaking that to decade tradition -- it is really breaking that two decade tradition when they stopped releasing the results publicly. now, we know they are doing extremely well, four point $3 billion in net income in the first nine months of the fiscal year as we see a surging demand in soybeans and anything to do with agricultural markets.
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a china state broadcaster reported the chinese president will support iran's reasonable demands on nuclear issues. separately, ran agreed to extend an agreement with investor's. what do we know. -- what do we know? can you hear us? we don't seem to have down but up next -- we don't seem to have dan, but up next, the south korean minister of oceans and fisheries says they will be tracking illegal fishing including chinese trawlers. this is bloomberg. ♪hinese trawlers. this is bloomberg. ♪
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eradicated joining in calls across asia to end what many see as beijing's push into regional waters. south korea has long complained about chinese trawlers operating in the yellow sea. the ministers spoke exclusively with bloomberg's government reporter, tom in seoul. >> illegal fishing is a matter that could risk the national pride of a country. all countries including us must take it seriously. if there is -- the countries fishing industry suffers from a tremendous pain as it would bring export restrictions. if you follow the prophets, you will lose more in the end. i am aware of voices that are calling for a coalition of other countries to respond against china conducting illegal fishing but ultimately i think it is china's problem. we may adopt policies but in the end, i believe china is going to
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do something about it. >> what are you doing to reach your goal of common neutrality by 2050? >> we are trying to d carbon eyes our fishing industries as well as expand our carbon absorption abilities. our goal is to reach carbon neutrality by 2050. we are trying to produce green friendly vessels. we are trying to change the structure of our fishing industry to one with less carbon fueled with hydrogen and ammonia. haidi: the south korean minister for oceans and fisheries speaking exclusively to bloomberg's government reporter. a china state broadcaster reported the chinese president will support iran's reasonable demands on nuclear issues. separately, ran has agreed to expand an agreement with u.n. investors.
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what do we know about the state of maneuvering here? >> it looks like we have got an extension or a temporary reprieve to allow the negotiations to go forward. iran basically saying they will continue to store video cameras that will allow the monitoring of these sites for the next month. that gives negotiators more time to go in and try to resolve the outstanding issues which the trump administration had pulled out of and which president biden is keen to get moving again. new gray shaders are as set to -- go shaders are said -- negotiators are set to meet again this weekend and get things going again. shery: we see iranian oil
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flowing again -- will we see iranian oil flowing again soon? >> the iranian supply will be coming back in. the chinese president's phone call with the iranian leader yesterday was focused on deepening cooperation with oil. china would be a big buyer of iranian oil. that is a big piece of the puzzle -- the sanctions and if they are lifted. at the same time, iran has said that things need to be worked out on verification. the details on that are keeping prices steady for the moment until there is an agreement. markets are anticipating more supply coming out very soon. shery: our bloomberg asia
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reporter. >> we are keeping an eye on asian crypto related names across the region after elon musk's signal support for greener crypto mining. there have been such a wild swings from one person's tweets and it takes away the legitimacy of the asset class according to one. you have another commentator saying the next financial crisis could originate in the crypto mania. haidi: coming up, more market analysis with jp morgan analyst. singapore is due out with its first quarter gdp data in the next few minutes and we will be
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>> i am sophie kamaruddin in new york. haidi: we are looking at some of the opening markets. asian stocks set to rise spurred by the rally on wall street. a new blow -- less than two months before the tokyo olympics, the u.s. tells americans to stay away from japan because of the covid emergency. and multiple chinese companies put the brakes on listings in the u.s. shery: breaking news out of singapore. for the first quarter, final gdp numbers. an expansion of one .3% beating expectations of growth of only 0.9%. that would already have been a revision upwards. this growth of 1.3%. quarter on quarter growth of three point 1% also beating
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expectations. strong on the manufacturing side to. services even growing about 1%. interestingly, singapore is leaving their 20 21 gdp forecast unchanged at 4%-6% despite this revision upwards which now takes the final numbers to growth of 1.3% year on year as we continue to see a strong export sector for singapore. singapore is doing well on the semiconductor side of things despite the fact that we continue to see strict travel restrictions with spreading infections. we will have more analysis on those numbers shortly. our guest joins us but for now, the market is open with sophie in hong kong. >> with japan, the u.s. saying americans should avoid traveling to the country just months before the olympics.
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jgb's seen tracking the gains we saw in treasuries. on monday. south korea, consumer confidence in the country jumping to a three year high underscoring the economic recovery. the korean wan on the front foot jumping to a high. the kospi is snapping a three day drop. and i am also watching the korean exchange. it is set to announce its stock rebalancing. biofarma is expected to see the biggest boost. looking at the sydney opening. tighter restrictions and australia being imposed in greater melbourne. there has been a three day rise and the aussie dollar is steady. we are stating brent come online. some downside but staying above
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68 dollars a barrel as markets wait for the negotiations regarding the iranian nuclear deal. and volatility continues with crypto on the latest tweets from elon musk indicating support for green crypto. haidi: let's get more on that with our market analyst live strategist. this idea of the potential contagion effect with the wild ride of cryptocurrencies. will this spill over to other asset classes? >> it has already started. part of the discussion is to do with the fact that the crypto complex is so much bigger than it was the last time we had a meltdown in crypto so we are now talking about a market worth 2 trillion u.s. dollars and that
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is a pretty sizable chunk of money which is tied up in cryptocurrencies. that does not mean to say that all of us will leave crypto in a hurry but the fact that some of that will be on leverage, some of that will be people that have a fairly short term horizon means that when you see liquidations going on in a large market like that, it is bound to have some knock on effect. there are certain names such as tesla and some of the investment firms are linked back into the crypto sector as well. and there are others as well. we are seeing a bit of a feedback loop between the equity space and the crypto and it may go slightly further than that because there was even talk cryptocurrencies could be a hedge against inflation against other assets. depending on how far investors have taken that, we will soon find out, particularly as may has generally been a more
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difficult month. as we get towards month end, we could see if the losses in crypto space that people need to make up for by starting to shed in other places. equities -- equities will probably be the first line of defense. shery: and cryptocurrencies impacted by what china does. they are coming up with their own cryptocurrency. what are we seeing what the chinese yuan? liquidity is impacting month end. >> you have seen overnight dollar-yuan got close to 640 again, the third time we have been close to breaking this threshold since february. it does seem like the chinese central bank is starting to defend that line but it won't be able to do that indefinitely. it looks as though the option market has already made up its mind that dollar-yuan will trade
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quite a bit below 640. there is a tremendous skew in the options space where the demand puts calls below 640. that is pretty extreme, the most extreme it has been for a couple of years. so the traders are already putting their hedges on the fact that the central bank will step back and allow dollar-yuan to trade lower. it seems only a matter of time -- possibly it has to do with the fact that all -- although the article was withdrawn, china could import inflation from overseas. it does appear that there is some thinking that maybe a stronger yuan is not that damaging to china and they might not be long in allowing the you want to grow stronger. shery: mark cranfield. you can follow more on the story
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and all of the days trading on our markets live blog. on mliv . let's get to vonnie quinn. vonnie: the european union has agreed to new sanctions on belarus after the forced diversion of a ryanair as in georgette and the rest of a journalist on board. they include banning its airlines from the airspace of the block and airports. further sanctions targeting the president and his associates are being imposed. russia though backing its ally calling the belarusian explanation of its actions reasonable. international efforts at reviving iran's nuclear accord are intensifying. chinese state media says the chinese president supports reasonable demands on nuclear issues. antony blinken has said a -- has
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said the priority is a deal. meanwhile, iran has agreed to extend u.n. iaea's agreement. president biden is sending antony blinken to the middle east to firm up the cease-fire between israel and palestine. in a statement, president biden said the visit would reinforce ironclad ties with israel and rebuild relations with palestinians after years of neglect. china is pushing back against a wall street journal report about three researchers that fell sick at a wuhan lab. the paper says the trio worked at the wuhan institute of virology and looked for hospital care in 2019. china says the report is not true. the lab in the city was where the outbreak was first confirmed. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake,
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powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. haidi: still ahead, jp morgan investment analyst strategy, patrik schowitz says why he is downgrading his view on markets in asia. our south asia analyst will be with us to talk about how the rising covid-19 cases is clouding the outlook. this is bloomberg. ♪g. ♪
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let's bring in the lead asia economist at continuum economics. great to have you with us. as we speak. we are getting the latest comments from the singapore trade ministry saying the economy will see the impact from virus restrictions. despite the fact that we saw a big upwards revision, even beating expectations, how sustainable is this growth? >> i think the second quarter will see some downsides given the set of restrictions that we are seeing as opposed to the last time. the biggest impact will be on retail and recreation. however, i think restrictions have been less severe than what we have seen in 2020. so i think the impact will not be as severe and there are some offsetting factors this time. the external demand is picking up well and there is a
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continuous demand for semiconductors. the chinese economy is doing well so there is demand from china as well. and the rising oil prices will continue to help exports. with all of these offsetting factors, i do think that the manufacturing will come along with the other sectors will continue to do quite well. but as far as retail, which is an important sector for singapore, also, i think trade and tourism remain very important. we could possibly see further delays there. shery: the trade minister continues to say that the new virus roles do not necessitate a gdp downgrade but i wonder if it will necessitate a change of course when it comes to the monetary authority. the last time they met, they indicated a gradual appreciation
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bias. could we see a shift in october? >> october is still far away and things could change over the course of that period. the good thing is that we are still in the start of the year, the first quarter. the rest of the corridors will still see pent-up demand coming back. along with the global economy. we expect a better improvement in trade. that i agree with your point. i think there remains a risk that the singapore monetary authority might delay the appreciation. they will have to also keep in mind how inflation is trading right now. we have seen some highs in inflation. that i think the focus will remain on growth. haidi: the minister for national development and singapore recently spoke about the labor shortage as being exacerbated
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either bored restrictions. is that an issue that will be ongoing? does that create structural problems, not just in singapore, but also the workforce across the rest of asia? >> yes, i think labor shortages is one of the major problems we are seeing especially given the second covid wave in india. that impacts the region as well as the middle east. i do have concerns around labor shortages even though i think singapore still remains in a better position because labor supply is pretty diversified. it comes from many different regional countries. given that 2021 has seen mobility restrictions must -- much less severe than 2020, i think there will be a labor rebound.
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things could materially change if we could beat this current wave of infections and control it quickly. haidi: very quickly, are they ok to move given that inflation has been pretty stable there? >> i think for them right now, the big point of concern is nuclear. they have seen a lot of pressure from the u.s. reflation story. tapering but there are also concerns around weak domestic growth. i think for them right now, inflation is a lot of concern. like i said, that goes for most of the region, inflation is likely to remain transitory.
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the output gap is still negative. and that will continue to push down the inflation numbers. haidi: always great to have you with us. lead asia economist at continuum economics. ed coined rebounding from the selloff of the weekend after other -- after another elon musk suite supports -- eat supports mine mining going green.
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now. what are strategists on wall street saying now? and how does this impact the acceptance of bitcoin in the mainstream? >> this concern and volatility does not help acceptance. let's dive into the bloomberg because what does add to possible acceptance is this chart that shows if a portfolio was to add even 1% exposure to cryptocurrency year to date, it would exponentially improve their performance. and that is what seems to be getting a lot of attention. goldman sachs came out with a multipart report generally positive crypto talking about trends and even suggesting that it might have a possible edge against bitcoin. if you look at the year-to-date chart or the one year chart of bitcoin, you can see that from december it is up more than 500%. and that is the question.
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the gains are grabbing attention but volatility is giving one pause. right now, we are seeing a lot of the bitcoin currencies starting to move higher in asian trading. they were down at the open. and as mentioned, they rebounded significantly up to the best day of the year in 2021 in the monday u.s. session. if you go back in the bloomberg, you can see that it is the volatility that gives pause to so many hedge fund managers that have to look at ratios and answer to investors. however, a growing topic on wall street is concerned that the latest bout of volatility was largely driven from tweets from elon musk. two weeks ago he said his company would no longer accept bitcoin to pay for the cars. last week, we saw dirty percent movement in both directions and
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he tweeted that he was concerned about the carbon footprints. again, these concerns about one man having the ability to swing the bitcoin price is starting to be a growing topic. shery: no wonder governor brennan art is speaking out about the risks. >> she spoke at a conference where she joined ray dalio. she said it could pose a risk to the payment system with fragmentation and the potential for increased transition costs. she also says overseas moves by countries setting up their run currency will cause the fed to look more closely at its digital dollar. we will likely hear more on that front. meanwhile, the front page commentary in the security times
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again raises one of the concerns. it says bitcoin mining is against china's goal of becoming carbon neutral by 2060 as it consumes large amounts of electricity. we know that is because there are multiple global computers running 20 47 and the use of electricity will increase emissions. it was the tweet from elon musk saying he was going to improve rings on that front. but it was another comment that helped rebound crypto in the latest u.s. session. back to you. haidi: we start with the volatility and the wild ride that is bitcoin but also, did you know that if you invested in avocados, you would have seen better returns than even if you had written the wild ride of bitcoin? avocado versus bitcoin.
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you can see avocados continuing to maintain the upward trajectory. we may just talk about this as something that we put on our toast in australia -- we joke that this is our millennial house deposit. but we know that it moves even the bank of mexico. these huge demands for avocado, an all-time high for shipments in january. people consumed more avocados in the americas as they abstain from eating meat in lent. and it is a core component of the inflation basket that very well leads to moves in monetary policy and mexico. shery: i have to say that i probably help with that rally because i am trying to eat one avocado a day. i am also trying to drink less coffee. that is not a concern because it
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seems arava co. coffee futures will continue to rally from here on out. we have seen the drought with brazil. there is also a technical market aspect of this. gross commercial shorts in arava co. coffee going to its highest. leaving the market vulnerable to rallies. gas, this is really playing into the food inflation concerns and they are go economic picture. we laugh this off as coffee and avocados but they really make a big difference. haidi: we talk a lot about the lumber shortage but i have to say that nothing strikes fear deep in my heart than the idea of a coffee shortage. because we are both valiantly trying to drink less coffee but i am failing. let's get a quick check of the headlines. a billion-dollar etf is set for
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a monster makeover this week. black rocks ishares -- 60% of the portfolio holdings. the rebalancing of the strategy is due on or around thursday. it is pushing the waiting for financial stocks to one third from less than 2% currently. tech sliding from 40% down to 17%. square is quietly preparing to offer checking's and savings accounts. evidence appears in hidden code and recent upgrades to square for apple devices. it suggests it will forgo monthly service charges and fees tied with minimum balances. epic games made a final pitch. it pleaded to leave as a
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marketplace for 2 million apps undisturbed. epic sued apple in august after ♪ ♪ look, if your wireless carrier was a guy you'd leave him tomorrow. not very flexible. not great at saving. you deserve better... xfinity mobile. now they have unlimited for just $30 a month... $30. and they're number one in customer satisfaction. his number... delete it. i'm deleting it. so, break free from the big three. xfinity internet customers, switch to xfinity mobile and get unlimited with 5g included for $30 on the nations fastest, most reliable network. total gym includes everything you need to get into the best shape of your life. for every body at any age. it works every muscle group, including your core, using your own body weight as resistance. customers love total gym because it's fun, fast and effective. nothing delivers
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play out like they have for other em's. this will be offset by domestic idiosyncrasies. pakistan most likely. let's go to southeast asia. bloomberg economics did not expect the sharp pickup in the region's inflations looking to persist beyond the second quarter. so they see little impact on monetary policy over the next 12 months. this tuesday, bloomberg intelligence is noting in -- inflation remains stable. haidi: our next just downgraded emerging markets from overweight to neutral. let's bring the strategist from j.p. morgan asset management. tell me what you are finding from the region. you're still overweight with
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cyclicals and is everyone trying to find value in the market. >> good morning. that was a change we made earlier in the year to downgrade em. we downgraded to neutral. we think or we just thought that there are better regions where we could pick up more gains. there are a couple of reasons why we did this. you have to bear in mind that china dominates this market. here view on china is going to be the biggest driver of what you do in em asia. there are couple of reasons. china recovered first it had its recovery growth and that has started to peek out. it has gone into cruising speed.
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we see europe and the u.s. accelerating. we saw the pendulum shift away from china over to the u.s. and europe. secondly, as chinese authorities have achieved a level of growth that is really good enough, they turn their attention towards fixing problems with the economy. on one hand the financial sector but also we see them tackling competition issues on the technology side. on the near term, it's just ahead for the stock market. and then finally i would say again it is dominated by china, but not just china. em is now very tech heavy. a lot of people still think of em as this industrial, cyclical, financials construct. but these days it is behind the
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u.s. the most's -- the second most wealthy market. interest rates are rising. this is the classic environment where you want to be invested more in value markets. that tilt away from that region and our most preferred regions at the moment are europe and japan. which both also have very strong with a value heavy, not growth heavy. it's not necessarily we think it will be terrible in em, we just think there are better regions out there. haidi: there are interesting price imprecations when you look a opportunities in japan. does that mean the narrative of another wave of covid cases in japan and south korea and australia, does that not worry you from a growth perspective euro -- perspective? guest: we look at japan as a
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separate case. but you are absolutely right. places like taiwan, korea, the second and third biggest markets in the region, respectively, are now facing a few more problems with covid and are behind in vaccinations, as well, even though china is really picking up the pace. that is another headwind for those regions. when it comes to japan, we suspect it is a little bit more the same story as europe was two or three months ago. they were behind on vaccinations, and it was not quite clear when it would get going, but by the time the people were really worried about that, it was kind of too late and you want to look forward towards the improvement and we suspect something like that is going to happen in japan, as well. access to vaccines is not a problem for japan. they just need to get shots in the arms. shery: i get your point about the huge internet giants, but what about the semiconductor
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industry in the likes of korea or taiwan? that global shortage will not get resolved in the next year or in the next couple of years, even, and we know how big samsung or tsmc are in their respective markets. guest: that's absolutely right. it's a different kind of technology. it's semiconductors, hardware, where as when you talk about china you're talking mostly about the internet, retail, that type of stuff. that's absolutely right. we would be more positive on the hardware side, but at the time we made this call, those two markets had not rallied very strongly already. we felt they were also due for a pause in the unit faded better on their own, not really able to move the em index. but absolutely it is a different case in those markets. you always have to be able to be cognizant that when you are
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buying an index level, you're buying huge single stock risk, as well. shery: that defendants could cut both ways, right? -- that dependence could cut both ways, right? what about the potential for earnings this year and next? guest: when we look at a global pace that is why we are still quite positive on risk assets despite the fact that, you know, we see the maximum point of acceleration in the global economy near here and things usually get a little bit harder at that point. but when we look at people and what they are expecting for growth around the world, we think there is a lot of inconsistencies in the numbers where analysts have not been able to catch up with the recovery in the global economy. we think there is still a lot of upside surprise to come. expectations for some are like 30% earnings growth both globally and within the u.s. but
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when you look historically at the strength of gdp growth, that we are expecting for the rest of this would year, that would be more consistent with something like 50% earnings growth. i don't think anyone. -- i don't think anyone dares put these numbers out there, but you could see the potential for upgrades. that is just the good news for risk assets. shery: what about upwards potential for commodities? we've seen a huge rally and we know there are many emerging market economies that depend on the commodities exports. could they see upside? guest: we are little more circumspect on commodities, as such. we are certainly supportive of a solid environment for commodities, but we are not super bullish. we do not really believe in a commodities super cycle, in particular in an environment where china, the biggest commodities supervisor in the world is try to control risk and
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is running with a little bit of a tighter policy. we just do not think there is that much upside potential. the hedge against inflation risks that everyone is clearly worried about at the moment is a hedge against that. you can certainly have a conversation about exposure in your portfolio. on its merits on its own, we are little more circumspect at these levels. shery: the global multi-asset strategist at j.p. morgan asset management. good to have your thoughts. coming up next, several chinese company's put the brakes on lance to list in the u.s.. we will examine what is behind the souring sentiment. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> is daybreak asia. i'm vonnie quinn with the first word headlines. the u.s. olympic committee says it is confident current safety measures will allow for team usa to compete safely at the tokyo olympics. the state department issued an advisory urging americans not to travel to japan over virus concerns. tokyo along with other prefectures remain under a state of emergency with less than two months to the start of the games. another sign of normalcy returning to new york city,
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mayor bill de blasio says all public school students will return to their school buildings in september. thermo option will not be available. -- the remote option will not be available. he says reopening the largest school district in the u.s. will be crucial to the economic recovery of the city. singapore's airport will reportedly impose stricter virus control measures at its terminals. the airport will separate staff handling incoming and outgoing travelers into various zones. the new measures are said to take effect by june 13. a virus cluster had grown to a hundred eight cases by sunday. health officials in thailand have increased the length of time between the first and second astrazeneca doses to 16 weeks from 10. the government says the adjustment wall off or more shots for more people as it deals with its biggest coronavirus outbreak since the start of the pandemic.
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global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. shery: the booming chinese listings in the u.s. is coming to a southern hot -- to a sudden halt. julia, at least three comedies have put their ipo plans on hold. how much of this to do with the u.s. china tensions yet -- tensions? >> it definitely is part to do with the tensions, although you have to know that this is been around for a while and still last year was a strong year for chinese ipos in the u.s.. it started off as a record year in terms of the pace of limping -- of listings. it is not just that. obviously there have been inflation concerns weighing on stocks. the growth sectors and attack at
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have been hit hard by the selloff. -- and tech have been hit hard by the selloff. so they will probably need to lower valuations and so they will have to wait and see for a minute if it improves. haidi: what are the input occasions for the rest of the pipeline? -- what are the implications for the rest of the pipeline? >> we are seeing companies file publicly. that means they can start and we can see what the demand would be like. it means valuations would have to come down if they decide to launch in this market. risks have been high in the past year. especially at the beginning of the year. investors are a lot more cautious. they will not be willing to pay such a high price for some companies. founders and management are going to have to be a little bit more modest in their expectations if they want to launch in this market. shery: how much longer will this last?
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>> it is hard to say. it depends on how long one expects this market to last. chances are this is temporary. chinese companies come in waves. right now it is calming down. it will probably pick up again. normally what you need is an ipo to do well to propel the rest of the market, to give it the rest of the market confidence to come forward. we have had a pretty bad debut with water drop, so that is keeping people more cautious. if we got a better what it might pick up again. haidi: our equity capital markets reporter in hong kong. coming up virgin galactic heads skyward into years. we will be hearing from the ceo next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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1.25%, not a great deal of price action given the context of what we are used to seeing but this comes after elon musk continued to affect the price of bitcoin on monday, taking to twitter again, indicating support for what he says is an effort for bitcoin miners to make their operations green are, and it got a great deal -- and not a great deal of detail about that buddy held a call with north american minors to talk about energies standardization. let's take a look at bitcoin links stocks, right now. shery: take a look at monix and these stocks in japan. monix group owns crypto exchange coin check. we are seeing gains of more than 5% at the moment. we are looking at japanese stocks to watch out for. those korean crypto linked stocks as well will move.
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haidi: virgin galactic will successfully -- successfully flew a test flight from new mexico into space on saturday with two pilots on flaw -- on board. their stock surged on the news, recording the biggest one-day gain since february. the ceo spoke with bloomberg about what the mission means for commercializing trips into orbit. >> we were trying to do some things in the test flight. the first was to testing new set of digital controllers that we have for the pilot to give them tighter steering. it worked flawlessly. as a curved straight up into space, beautiful flight. the second thing we did was ensure that the electromagnetic interference issue we had that the latest earlier in the air and all the work that we did
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eliminated that. finally we collected data we sent to the faa. we believe it will give us a great opportunity for them to analyze it and hopefully clear our license for commercial flight. all in all, just a beautiful day. >> what is the journey between now and that point, that license being achieved? what needs to happen, when is the next flight, what milestones does that next flight have to achieve? >> this is our third flight to space with humans. the first from the state of new mexico, which is a beautiful place to look back down upon the planet. what follows next is we have three more flights in our test flight program. the next one will come up with a full crew of mission specialists in the back, in addition to the two pilots. that one will be followed with a repeat, but we are asking our founder richard branson to come on and test the private astronaut experience for us. we think, who better to do that? both of those we expect to happen this summer, and that
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will be followed by our final test flight planned with the italian air force to showcase how our systems are used for microgravity science research. as well as professional astronaut training. we think that will likely happen late summer, early fall. >> let's get to that in terms of preflight training. how healthy do you have to be? kind of training does there have to be for a regular person to -- what kind of training does there have to be for a regular person to book a flight deco >> what's unique is we take the first 50,000 feet or so with the airplane technology, so we take off horizontally in our mothership and it climbs up to 45 thousand, 50,000 feet, and then from there the spaceship drops and rockets up, so it is powerful but reasonably smooth because we have gone through the heaviest part of the atmosphere just like you would in a commercial airliner. it is really important. it is not something that needs
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years of training. we recommend people stay flexible because they want to be moving around in a weightless environment and looking out all the windows. but generally we think the as long as people take care of themselves, lots and lots of people will be able to go with us. >> not much training. alex was concerned i was getting a little old. >> i was worried, i was worried. >> let's talk about price. in terms of this venture going forward, michael, this is a question that i am surprised a lot of people have to think about going forward. what is the path to profitability? when do you think this is profitable?e? will you be making money off of this? when you think you will make money off of this? >> the first thing we need to do is finish this test flight program and then move into commercial service. we believe that this will be a
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supply constrained business for quite some time. the demand of this is going to be well out in front of our ability to build to scale a fleet for a while. as such, it will be reasonably extensive as it goes forward. our previous 600 people daryl he had a price of around $250,000 each. we will not -- we have not announced pricing going forward. we said it will be higher in the beginning. we see pricing of around $600,000 per seat equivalent for our microgravity research flights, but we have not put prices for the private astronaut. shery: speaking with alix steel and guy johnson there. here's a quick check of the latest headlines. nissan is stuck in a legal dispute after some of its factories threatened to stop work after fears of can -- the years of -- after fears of contracting local -- covid-19.
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the company says it is taking all necessary precautions including using the number of work shifts and maintains they need to keep the factory running to meet export orders. chinese ev maker says its shares will double monthly output by expanding capacity. they will boost capacity to children 40,000 units analytic -- georgia 40,000 units annually which means they will be able to roll out 20,000 cars every month. a $16 billion etf is set for a monster makeover this week in favor of value shares overtaxed. wells fargo says blackrock etf will see a 68% of its portfolio holdings change. the rebalancing of the quant strategy is due on or around thursday and they are pushing the waiting a financial stocks
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to one third less than 2% currently with tech sliding from 40% to 17%. merrill lynch wealth management is revamping its training program for 3000 new hires. the new guidelines will include a ban on cold calling prospective clients. participants will instead be directed to use internal referrals or linkedin messages. the length of the training program will be cut in half to 18 months with the goal of graduating 1000 new advisors per year in the next few years. we're looking at what to watch ahead of the china open. >> we are watching chinese credit markets. this after ocean wide only partially reap -- partially repaid a maturing bond and taho group says it is unable to pay bond on tuesday. credit risk is increasing in china as investors are shifting towards shorter maturities. we are seeing a pickup in hua
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rong's default swap. even as we saw the bad debt managers dollar bond rise on monday on local media reporting that the company is nowhere near defaulting on offshore notes, we are seeing the mainland repo market, indicating a loss of confidence around it. pulling up a board. look where we are so far in the asian session. taiex futures are pointing to gains. goldman is moving for taiwanese equities to be overweight. haidi: coming up, expert analysis on all corners of the market. we will be covering base metals. the economic outlook with selena laying. right is markets open in hong kong and china. but that is all coming up. that is just about it for
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tom: it is not :00 a.m. in beijing. i am tom mackenzie. david: good morning, i am david ingles. we are counting down to the open of trade. let's get to the top stories. the commodities market is getting mixed messages from china, urging further strengthening of imports, just hours after regulators threatened to crack down on speculators. tom:
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