♪ >> we've already had a bit of a melt up, so we don't expect another melt up to happen. >> the data has some in the economy that we don't have very much. >> it is very clear that they are not going to allow any part of the curve to really get away from them. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. equity futures with a lift, up 11 on the s&p. on the nasdaq 100, up 0.3% after a tiny rally in yesterday's

session. for now, big tech making a bit of a bounce. tom: we haven't talked about it yet. big tech coming back after being the darling eight, 9, 10 months ago. some charts show how unloved those big faang's are. they've been out of favor. jonathan: as morgan stanley's james gorman has his call materialize, maybe things change again. the call at eight conference -- at a conference in japan this morning. tom: the growthiness, value-ness of what the fed does is almost like gospel right now. jonathan: are you pushing back? tom: no, i just think the certitude that we get inflation, apple goes up, i have problems with that certitude. jonathan: you tell me where the rates market goes and i will tell you where the equity market goes and the complexion of it.

lisa: you have seen a rally in the nasdaq and disproportionate tech shares as yields -- tech shares have years -- tech shares as yields have come down. they would like to see an environment on all counts where that happens. jonathan: do you think the bankers want higher rates? lisa: do using the sky occasionally is blue? [laughter] good morning. jonathan: sometimes. tom: this is a thursday conversation already. jonathan: a thursday conversation on a tuesday. equities up 10 on the s&p. this too with through things quickly, and the bond market, yields are lower by -- just to whip through things quickly, in the bond market, yields are lower. the 10 year yield in america topped out at the end of march. we are back to 1.2 to 50 -- we

are back to 1.2250%. lisa: i'm looking at the euro -yuan cross. as far as the data i am looking at today, tonight like a.m., we get u.s. april new-home sales. expect them to decline as prices increase. a 19% year-over-year increase in the median cost of a home in the united states. that is the biggest increase on record, even exceeding the housing boom leading up to the 2008 crisis. also, we get may consumer confidence. look for inflation expectations. fed vice chair randy quarles will be speaking. i want to hear about froth. how much will he be speaking to this? how quickly will they move to try to offset some of the it bully and's other central -- the

ebullience others are speaking to? then, to your auctions. not a lot of action on the two-year front. jonathan: really interesting story from the team on square yesterday. what did you guys make of that? jp morgan come a bit of competition coming from square maybe. lisa: when you hear the bank executives talk about their future, they talk increasingly about competition, and it is from big tech. that is what they are looking at, especially as we start to talk about the digitization of currencies. tom: i would look at it is a flow of funds. i'm less worried about the technologies. i would look at it with charge cards, credit cards, commercial

banking, and the turmoil there. it is about the float and and out of money with this new technology -- the flow in and out of money with this new technology. jonathan: another one to watch, amazon close to that deal with mgm holdings reportedly. we could hear about that as soon as this morning. tom: what is interesting is it does not include the old catalog , the mgm we know. jonathan: a really -- oh really? tom: warner bros. owns that from another transaction ages ago. don't quote me on this, i believe "gone with the wind" is not owned by mgm, even though the land is at the beginning -- even though the lion is at the beginning. lisa: the lion is there. [laughter] tom: the lion comes on in the movies, and vet bill goes absolutely nuts. jonathan: anna han joins us,

wondering what on earth is going on on this program. let's talk about this growth bounce. what are you looking at that tells you this one doesn't last? anna: i think your question cut off a little bit at the end, but you are asking if this growth bounce doesn't last? if that was the question, i would say what you have right now is a positive rising yields. the slowdown in the pace, over the last several quarters, several months, this reflation trade is going to continue. even if we get decent prints, i don't think that is going to be enough to necessarily force the fed's hand if it is tightening any before 2024. tom: you go right to xy access and cartesian geometry. you are comparing and contrasting the two outcomes we

have. i would submit it is not about a parabola, and exponential function, and it is not about being transitory. it is about the in between that is there. how do you frame the geometry between those two outcomes? mi still, or is she still? i think we've got some audio issues. i tried to go cartesian there. jonathan: something just came back to me. for what it's worth, we have some difficulties with anna han. she understood everything you said, i think. lisa: if she heard it. jonathan: there's a great clip of you that the team and radio showed me years and years ago, and it is you asking a very complex, long-winded question of a federal reserve official. it went silent, and said fed official turns around and just

goes, "i have no idea what you're talking about." [laughter] tom: the problem is, they actually did. but anna han writes one of the smartest notes on wall street. it's about the dynamics. what i am suggesting, and you guys can remember this, xy, single piece of paper. we all flunked geometry. lisa: speak for yourself. [laughter] tom: or how about the 3d space? if you bring other dimensions into this, like gdp, like pandemic recovery, like the dynamic of geography, then you get into huge complexities. that pushes me away from the certitude of reflation, worrying about the 1960's, or transitory, which is the theme of the moment. did i do ok there? jonathan: fantastic. the bigger challenge at the end of the year is probably not so much the inflation debate. it is the deceleration conversation for growth. the reason i say that is because we talk about the former far more than the latter, which make

me wonder whether the latter is more underappreciated. lisa: especially because stocks have been an inflation hedge. increasingly, people have looked at stocks as alden turned -- as an alternative to bonds because they could benefit from an alternating cycle. what happens if my pound back -- if matt horne bach is right -- if matt hornbach is right? jonathan: to be fair, i think we are only 10 points away from the bull case on tens. the big bullish call i think is mr. steve mager over at hsbc, who i believe is still looking for a move towards 1% by year end. tom: there is still a case within all the gloom out there and a pendulum of higher yields where wise people are saying the certitude is going to kill you. you mentioned mr. major writing for hsbc. i would also mention david

rosenberg. they are just saying calm down. this is a varied set of outcomes. it is not just one reaction function. and we don't know what that path is going to be. jonathan: what will come down to his inflation expectations. if you afford me the time, this came from governor brainard yesterday. long-term inflation expectations have been extremely well anchored, implying that if we saw some development pushing inflation up, i wouldn't expect that to get embedded in the ongoing inflation rate. tom: anna han back with us for a short visit after technical difficulties. what is between the certitude of transitory inflation and the idea of the fear of inflation back to the 1960's? anna: the 1960's wouldn't be my strong suit, but when you think about how the inflation picture looks, transitory is the keyword we have all been hanging onto. but how do we define it? when you think about pass

recoveries, how much inflation do we have to see to actually see the fed take accommodation off the table? even if we see change in cpi throughout this year, a notch above, and even in 2022, we expect probably a mid-2% to low 3% range. that still doesn't put a fed rate hike sooner than 2024. if anything, we have $120 billion of fed funds purchases going through a day. having a little bit of that trimmed back is going to be the first step, but right now we haven't even really considered those tapering. you hear whispers of it, but that is not really where we are at, so to see that persistent level of inflation is going to have to be higher than the sort of 3% through more than several quarters for us to really feel that we are at risk of

accommodation meaningfully coming off the table. jonathan: appreciate the additional comment, and my apologies about the connection. anna han, wells fargo securities equity strategist. on the s&p, we advance about zero point 3%. coming up in the next hour, david costin of goldman sachs, the chief u.s. equity strategist. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. this is "bloomberg surveillance," live on tv and radio. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. secretary of state antony blinken kicked off a middle east diplomatic mission today was a pledge to help reconstruction efforts in gaza. speaking in jerusalem alongside israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu, blinken said he would support and would help ensure that hamas will not and if it

from the rebuilding efforts. lincoln also reiterated the been to israel's right to defend itself -- blinken also reiterated the u.s. commitment to israel's right to defend itself. there's a shakeup at the top of bloomberg's covid resilience ranking. singapore falling in may, along with other asian economies. parts of europe have been steadily climbing up the ranking as the pandemic slowly recedes and vaccination numbers climb. the u.k. jumped seven spots to 11th, and the u.s. is number 13. new zealand took the top spot. turkey's president is shaking things up at the country's central bank once again. reggie berger one -- reggie erdogan -- president erdogan has swapped out senior positions at the central bank. this time, the lira held steady against the dollar.

global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> there's a lot of hard work ahead to restore hope, respect,

and some trust or trust -- trust across communities. but we have seen the alternative, and that should cause all of us to redouble our efforts to preserve the peace and improve their lives of israelis and palestinians alike. jonathan: that was antony blinken, the u.s. secretary of state. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. good morning to you all. equities up 13, advancing 0.3%. some outperformance from big tech recently. the nasdaq 100 advancing 0.5%. into the bond market, yields working 1.60% to the downside, at 1.5893%. in foreign exchange euro shining some strength -- euro showing some strength. euro-dollar, $1.2253, up about 0.3% on that currency pair. tom: if we see it breaking higher, that will be a big deal. we will see if we get there on a more interesting tuesday than what we saw yesterday.

as we look at belarus and some of the other political issues, we need to center back to gaza, israel and palestine. jack fitzpatrick joins us come our bloomberg government reporter. what willie that's what i notice here, but we have seen before -- what i notice here, what i have seen before, is how quickly it falls off the american radar. "the washington post," "the new york times," really know stories today on israel, on palestine. what will keep this fermenting in washington, or will it drift away? jack: keep in mind, the biden adminstration has not necessarily sought to put itself front and center in everything that is happening in israel and palestine. clearly, the blinken trip will do that. it is going to be in the news cycle as he meets with israeli and palestinian leaders. but keep in mind he's also notably going to meet with

el-sisi of egypt and the german foreign minister because other countries in the region have to take the lead probably more than the u.s. on the going back-and-forth between the two sides to make sure a cease-fire sticks. the goal is to not let the middle east become not the top priority, but still be involved to some degree. tom: let's move up the l evant to turkey. it established the biden relationship with turkey right now versus what we saw with president trump. jack: that is another when they haven't exactly put front and center, but the biden adminstration has talked about pushing back on more authoritarian regimes. i am not exactly sure necessarily how to tie turkey

directly into this. it is not part of the blinken meeting this week. but you saw during a turkish visit during the early trump administration clash in washington with protesters that was largely overlooked by the u.s., that is a difficult thing to negotiate for the biden adminstration, to say the least. lisa: you talked about how the u.s. might not want to be front and center in a lot of these disputes. it raises the question of whether the u.s. can do that while reprising the former role of being the sort of gatekeeper for global affairs, for being the leader when it comes to wrangling up some of the allies. is this something that is a concern to people? in other words, how to take a more national focused view, similar to what president trump had, while also reprising this role? jack: well, they can do both.

in fact, trump supporters would argue that the u.s. standing by israel with absolutely no exceptions would be their preferred means of injecting the u.s. into foreign affairs. the question and the thing that makes it difficult for the biden adminstration is if there is a flareup, how does it play in domestic politics in the u.s.? because there's a significant amount of pressure from the democratic party to find some way to push back on israel after all of the violence that occurred there. how would they do that in a subtle way without going overboard and pushing too hard against an ally? but i would not necessarily draw a distinction between what the biden adminstration is doing to try to engage with the world and

what the trump administration did in terms of wholehearted ally ship with israel because that is still sort of the center of where the u.s. stands in this. they obviously don't have a relationship with hamas, which is why egypt plays a role here. this isn't necessarily an either/or. it is how do biden adminstration officials handle the issue and be involved without pushing too hard if they need to have hard conversations with an ally. lisa: just to wrap up here, want to focus domestically on the counterproposal republicans are putting together to joe biden's reduced $1.7 trillion infrastructure spending plan. whenever he expecting that counterproposal, and why is it important to watch that? jack: we got the white house's $1.7 trillion counterproposal on friday. we got a lot of negative feedback immediately from republicans. but as of late yesterday,

republicans seem to think this was still going on, and the white house was saying they expect another counterproposal at some point from republicans. the negative feedback was that it is unclear how quickly this is going to move forward, but there doesn't seem to be some agreement at least from roger wicker of mississippi, who seems to say that something around $1 trillion could be agreeable for both sides. despite the negative feedback after the white house proposal, it is just moving slowly right now. jonathan: are these negotiations sincere? do they actually want to make a deal, or are we just finding some fuel to play the blame game about a year from now? jack: the biden adminstration has to at least try, which may or may not be sincere, because they are more or less being forced into this by joe manchin and may be other moderate democrats. it may be a moot point right now

whether it is sincere because if they have to keep talking and they have to continue to seem what they are working in a bipartisan way, they could more or less get dragged into a bipartisan agreement. but i cannot guarantee that this goes on forever. there's still so much middle ground between democrats talking about a $1.7 trillion plan and republicans talking about something closer to $800 billion. there's a lot of room in the middle. but if talks continue, then good things could happen, so it is sincere enough for it to continue. jonathan: jack fitzpatrick, bloomberg government reporter down in d.c. what do you make of it, tk? tom: you may be right that it is about a year out where this becomes a completely political discussion. i would suggest that is going to happen sooner rather than a year out. jonathan: coming up, shahab

jalinoos. your euro-dollar breaking out, up about 0.3%. up 14 on the s&p 500. we are looking good on equities for the week so far, up 0.3%. heard on radio, seen on tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance."

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jonathan: two hours away from the opening bell in new york city. good morning. approaching three week highs on the s&p 500. big tech with a bounce as yields settle down. into the treasury market, a break of 1.60% on tends this morning. yields lower at 1.58 93%. it is a snooze on the two-year. that's exact we what the fed wants to see. your two-year yield, about 50 basis points. lisa taking you through the supply this week. two's later, fives tomorrow, sevens on friday. if you believe the federal reserve is wrong about the forecast, if you believe they

will have to move sooner than anticipated because of that, that's got to show up in a higher two-year yield. right now, pinched th -- right now, pinned to the floor. is it really about believing the data has gone one way or another, or the fact that the federal reserve is still in this market buying at a massive rate everything will month? it is hard to get a read when you have a price-sensitive buyer buying up that debt. -- a price insensitive buyer buying up that debt. let's get to the bund market. -16 basis points on tens. we were making a shift towards zero at one point. this morning, we come in another to basis points or so, but the challenge is starting to build much more so for the ecb on dune -- on june 10. we need some guidance, and they don't have the luxury of repeating what fed officials did in q1, which is it is consistent

with a brighter outlook. they are going to have to carry on talking about the risks to the outlook. tom: the difference is it is may and not january. we will get to that in a moment with a wonderful guest, perfect for euro on the edge of $1.23. so many of you are waiting, watching every tick of when mr. bezos and amazon will buy metro-goldwyn-mayer. david wilson has seen every mgm movie. you've seen "die another day" wh at, 10 times? dave: i don't know, i've lost track. tom: when do we get emg -- when do we get mgm, sometime today? dave: it could be. we look around for stories affecting the market. autozone was out with fiscal third-quarter results, and it continues the trend we have seen as quarterly figures have been released. eye-popping numbers relative to estimates. not much reaction in the stock. earnings well above analyst average projections in the

bloomberg survey. same-store sales up 29%. that was almost double the average estimate, and it gets you zero point and percent gain in the stock. tom: you told me to buy that at $50 and it is now at $1400. i didn't buy it. that is pretty much a linear moonshot, isn't it? dave: it sure looks that way. but i digress. let's talk about lumen our technologies -- about luminar technologies. this company has a contract with tesla for testing and development of autonomous vehicles. ceo elon musk over at tesla said we don't need the technology that they provide to be able to build our self driving cars. nonetheless, they are at least testing it out. so shares are higher in early trading. we've got to talk about lordstown motors. the shares are really taking a beating after results were out late yesterday.

the truck developer raised its costs, cut production forecasts. they expect to end the year with no more than $75 million in cash and equivalents. today were looking for $200 million, so differently taking a turn for the worse at lordstown. tom: that's it, lordstown motors. thanks so much. do you have a spac for us? dave: not today. it really seems like the spac market has cooled at the moment. tom: do you have a wife or that? -- a why for that? dave: lordstown, by the way, is a company that went public via a spac. that's one of the reason you have seen this flood of blank check companies. it is a matter of what are you going to buy. tom: right now on euro, shahab jalinoos is at credit suisse. let's go to the major right now, euro-dollar. where is the tip point where

european authorities, not just the ecb, worry about too strong a euro? is it $1.25, or higher? shahab: it could still be higher. if you go back and look between 2009 and 2015, a period that included a major european crisis around greece and other issues, euro-dollar averaged over $1.30 in that period. it basically took draghi to change that psychology, and since the middle of 2015, we have averaged around $1.14. this level we are at now around $1.2250 is high by recent standards, but well below the averages we saw before 2015. so there is still room to the upside when you look at it from that longer-term perspective. jonathan: the guide we've had from the ecb has been to preserve his financial conditions. the italian 10 year yield is

back inside 1% this morning at 97 basis points. it was north of 1.1% in the last week. do you think this move off the lows of february, when we were south of 50 basis points, do you think this move is making them uncomfortable? shahab: in isolation, no, simply because this could also be attributed to improved reflation prospects across the euro area. in those southern european countries which were severely damaged by the loss of tourism income, their framework is looking much better. economists put out a piece looking specifically at the likelihood of tourism recovering across europe. that is something to bear in mind here, that that can be looked at in a positive light. if you look at market-based inflation expectations, for example, five-year five-year spec patients, they are still going up for the euro area as well. that to some extent reflexive global factors like rising oil prices, but from an ecb

perspective, as long as that is still trending up and we are back to levels for that indicator, there's probably some degree of comfort that still holds for the ecb at these levels. jonathan: without the framework that the federal reserve can lean on, the ecb does not have that. does that make it difficult to push back against a stronger euro? shahab: it certainly limits their potential to do so. having said that, there is going to be a strategic review of the ecb's targets and policies which is due at some point in the autumn, and there are some thoughts out there that this could result in a more dynamic approach to meeting price stability targets to what we have seen before now. any move in that direction would still be something that would obviously be very important for the markets and would allow the rates to be kept lower for longer in the case of europe.

again, the fed has maybe pushed the system to its limits at this point, and maybe the ecb wouldn't be able to do quite as much as the fed, but it is something to put to a cabinet official. lisa: something that was below the radar is the idea of digital currencies, and particular issued by central banks. we heard about that from pboc, and now hearing increasingly about it from the federal reserve. bear with me for bringing this up, but i am wondering how much you care about this. how much you care that the fed is going to release this document later this summer about the digital dollar and its potential disruption to the financial system. shahab: i think it is important because any technological change that could affect the way business is done needs to be taken seriously. certainly the cryptocurrency space is a hot space, not just for speculators, but there are people who feel that there will

he will be longer-term applications for the financial sector coming after that space. so this is a reaction to competitive pressure, you could argue, from the private sector of the global currency space. to that extent, the fact that there is a response from central banks that is positive now, they could even find ways of adapting their policies around digital currency. maybe there could be better ways of meeting some of the targets down the line if they embrace the technological change. so i certainly think it is a good thing that they are taking this head on. lisa: the reason why i bring this up is because it seems like volatility in currencies has been coming down, including the major ones. i am wondering what would have to happen to ignite those price swings and what kind of exhaustion us shocks could -- of exhaustion us -- of exogenous shocks could you expect. shahab: beyond the data we've

already had, to a point that effectively, the messaging coming out of the federal reserve becomes completely untenable, that is not impossible to see, if we were to see consistently higher inflation numbers, for example, as we go into the summer, where the idea that basically, this is all a transitory phase and down the line we moved back to low-inflation environment naturally, if that idea becomes materially challenged, we should see volatility not just in foreign currency, i would say in all asset classes that could be quite spectacular at that point in time. so i really wouldn't look at what is going on right now and assume it will be like this forever. i think the possibility is therefore fairly high volatility in fx markets as we go towards the end of the year. jonathan: recency bias. you know how it works. you take the last week and extrapolated out 12 months. shahab jalinoos, credit weise --

shahab jalinoos, credit suisse fx and rates strategist. it feels that way sometimes. lisa: in fairness, when you have a very calm are get, you are looking for what is going to happen. you can talk about snooze v ille mondays and extrapolated out. jonathan: you can say what it is, it is just a little boring and foreign-exchange. lisa: so what is going to make a change? jonathan: what is going to make a change instead of keeping it all the same? lisa: but it is interesting that some sort of shocking figure in inflation could make that change. interestingly, jim reed of deutsche bank just put out this chart showing that inflation data surprises are running at the strongest on record. when it comes to those particular data points, incredible upside surprises already. jonathan: i should p -- i appreciated this chat just to make up for tom's conversation on boards town. tom:tom: it was a spac -- on lordstown. tom: it was a spac.

jonathan: haven't the ford ev plans killed that? tom: i don't have a strong view on that. there have been some big figure fx trades that have worked. just look at euro-yen. jonathan: coming up in the next hour, julia coronado, macropolicy perspectives president and founder, will be joining us. equities through 4200, up 14 points on the s&p. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. more than 1.6 billion covid vaccine doses have been administered globally, according to data collected by bloomberg news and johns hopkins university. dr. anthony how she come the top -- at dr. anthony fauci has said roughly 70% to 85% would need to be vaccinated for a return to

normalcy. german finance minister olaf scholz is backing a plan to require companies to report climate risk as he seeks to boost his environmental credentials in his bid to succeed angela merkel as chancellor. speaking today in a bloomberg webinar on the german election, scholz also weighed in on the hijacked of a ryanair flight by belarus. >> this is against any agreement we have, and it is necessary that we are strict and that we continue to be strict. ritika: in addition, he is pushing a proposal for a so-called climate plan to seek an agreement with the u.s. on the eu plans for a co2 border adjustment tax. president biden will meet privately at the white house today with the family of george floyd one year after his murder. the meeting comes as negotiators in congress are still working on

legislation on how to hold law enforcement officers accountable for excessive use of force. bite and hope that legislation bearing floyd's name would be passed by the anniversary of his death. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> that is likely going to be waning. the fed will likely be tapering

at some point within the 12 month window. the ecb, even though they promised to ramp up their purchases under the pepp program, that has been pretty underwhelming, to be honest. so i think that will be coming down, and even though it feels like we can observe a lot of liquidity in the markets, i think that pressure will be coming off within the investable horizon. jonathan: good to catch up with gene tannuzzo there, columbia threadneedle. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. tuesday morning price action, up 15 on the s&p. the nasdaq 100 advancing 0.6%. in foreign-exchange, south of 1.60% at 1.5927%. that a supporting the story you have seen play out in nasdaq futures. as we discussed a couple of hours ago, is it correlational causation? do you want to talk about that -- correlation or causation?

do you want to talk about that, tk? tom: you bring the seminar to a complete stop talking about correlation. lisa: an absolute snooze, no? tom: it is often too simplistic within market study. it's great for theory. do you have a piece of chalk in your hand? correlation and cons i should -- and causation. jonathan: maybe this is correlation and not causation, i could say causation, and i would moderate the thing to make it less boring, but carry on. tom: ok. well come on wall street, there's a lot to carry on. it is active, to say the least. about 200,000 american banking jobs exiting. our team in frankfurt led by steven arons has a definitive summation of the sewing era at deutsche bank.

he's been like a cup of coffee, but yet we are talking about the sewing era. jonathan: every time there's been a crisis over in europe, we haven't talked about deutsche bank as much. that's true about archegos as well. that's got to be the big shift. we talk more about credit suisse than deutsche bank, so did something change? or did they just get lucky? tom: lisa: that is a really -- tom: that is a really important comment. we will discuss with sri natarajan come our bloomberg wall street reporter. your focus is on globin sax, and they are really not a compare and contrast with deutsche bank, but nonetheless, luck is so much a part of this. has mr. sewing just been lucky to get in deutsche bank and managing it from the bottom? sri: luck is certainly a part of it, but tells me a lot that when we were talking about the archegos situation, the shock here isn't that deutsche bank lost money, but they managed to dodge a bullet.

there's a great line in this story that deutsche bank has long been the perennial sick child of european finance. it has lost money in five of the last six years. shares are below their peak. so the bar for success isn't all that high. it is pretty low, in fact. but even then, it is a sigh of great relief for those senior managers in frankfurt that everyone is talking about at credit suisse, hsbc, and else we were -- and elsewhere. lisa: can you talk about the distinction between a deutsche bank a lot of people thought was just reducing risk dramatically and managed to avoid some of the pitfalls versus a deutsche bank that was using risk more intelligently, more deliberately , more targeted ways that they were actually going after big deals? sri: you have to remember that under the new ceo that took over in 2015, very much at the bottom

come of the shares have nearly doubled since then. there's been a massive overhaul in the middle of this four-year restructuring. they were to lean more into investment banking, into commercial banking, and when we think about the pandemic and the year of the coronavirus that has ravaged the global economy, everyone worried that a bank like db would fall under the weight of bad loans, but it is increasing dealmaking and trading that has helped it hold its footing and come out looking stronger than before. tom: i want to get to the book value into the state of new york city right now. this is all off the acclaimed bloomberg terminal bq screen, which is really easy to use and is sort of apples to apples. deutsche bank cratering, even with a comeback 0.46 book.

the giant commercial bank of paris, bnp paribas, 0.67. leading the way at two times book, jp morgan in new york. we forget how flat on its back european banking is. with that, what is the state of play for deutsche bank in new york? sridhar: i really don't think at this point in time they can be thinking about u.s. dominance. the real contrast is the difference between european banks and american banks since the global financial crisis in the last decade. u.s. banks have really pulled ahead. they have become a major global force. like we discussed earlier, some of the top three banks have created such a major competitive mode that you are talking about a super bowl's bracket banks, names like morgan stanley.

when you have that discussion, the main european banks don't feature in the same legs. -- in the same league. it is competing against itself, trying to make sure it stays afloat, improves from a very low base, and when people are talking about trouble spots in european finance, they want to make sure deutsche bank is no longer in that conversation. jonathan: another aspect -- lisa: another aspect is the likelihood that deutsche bank will try to consolidate with another european bank as it tries to consolidate. who is the likely contender? sridhar: we've talked various scenarios over the last few years. we talked about the need for creating a european champion, whether they would combine with other german banks. it isn't clear how quickly could move on something like that. at this point, i think it is

really about shoring up their basic financials, making sure they are on a strong footing, and any deals that they look to strike, they are doing it from a position of strength rather than desperation. jonathan: good to hear from you, sir. sri natarajan, bloomberg wall street reporter. i didn't realize the dolch bank center was at one columbus circle -- the deutsche bank center was at one columbus circle. i didn't know they had the naming rights. tom: it is 59th street, and i don't go below 59th street as a rule, but to be at 59th street is even more challenging. jonathan: for a man that used to live in central park south, you never went south of 59? [laughter] he just walked parallel to the bottom of the park. lost for words on this. tom: after we paid the whole rent, we went over to time warner and paid the whole paycheck. [laughter] jonathan: coming up, david

kostin of goldman sachs, the chief u.s. equity strategist. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity markets doing a little bit better the last couple of days. a bounce for the nasdaq. on radio, on tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

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>> the risk that the data comes in hot or remains hotter is an important part of it, and the fed has so far -- the fed is so far behind the curve that it is hard for them to catch up. >> we already had a bit of a melt up in the first half of the year, so we don't necessarily see another melt up happening. >> inflation could keep rising, but stay higher for longer. >> even forget decent cpi prints, i don't think that is going to be enough to force the fed's hand and tightening any before 2024. >> you cannot really push the story of inflation