>> good morning. the oecd raising their 2021 global growth forecast, but warning of an uneven global recovery ahead. we will hear from the secretary-general. . china lifting its two child rule in an effort to boost the country's birth rate and fix the looming economic problem. despite recent volatility -- is committed to the -- tells bloomberg why he is expecting a bull market this summer. welcome to the show. it is memorial day, so happy memorial day.

i want to get a sense of what is going on in the global markets. the reserve rate was raised. it has had no major impact but they have issued a cease and desist on the currencies. they have gone for jawboning over the weekend. the former statistics chief says the currency is overboard and china will act against short-term inflows. this is definitely one of those moments when you say, what is my risk this week? the risk this week, a number of different directions. one intervention on the yuan. you could get a real spoiler from the jobs report at the end of the week. in crypto land, never far from weekend trading in bitcoin.

talking about a triple bottom. that seems -- goldman sachs saying bitcoin could lose its first mover advantage. eventually, it will lose its pride as the dominant digital. we keep an eye on digital and whether there is a bounce to come. it could make it all the way back to $64,000. the cash markets are closed. you know that. have a look at the stocks on the futures aside because the treasure market is in a social taper. the stock market is preparing for either an inflationary angst or -- bank of america says to position yourself of the second half. those are your markets. that is the context of where we are. the real risk is that you have intervention from china and why would you want to take bond risk in a week when you would get the wages and the jobs report on

friday? let's get to leigh-ann gerrans. she has your "first word news" from around the world. leigh-ann: china will allow couples to have a third child. it is an attempt to help the shrinking birth rate and aging population. for many years, china limited most families to have only a single child. that policy was relaxed in 2016. the oecd has raised its global gdp forecast for this year. both the paris and beijing group warns there -- the recovery will be -- will mean living standards for some people won't return to pre-pandemic levels for an extended period. the new forecast calls for an 8.5% growth in 2021, up 2/10 of a percentage point from the last outlook. in israel, the prime minister's opponents are moving closer to

ousting him. one of his former allies has now agreed to join the alternative government that his rivals are trying to form. israel has had four inconclusive elections in the last two years. shares of chinese food delivery giant mate one rose more than 10%. the company unveiled better-than-expected -- that is also detailed plans to address the government's concerns about business practices. the chinese government has been carrying out an antitrust investigation. french investigators are in beirut to question carlos ghosn. he has lived in lebanon since his escape from japan a year and a half ago. that was to escape a trial. french authorities have accused him of siphoning corporate funds to pay for his yacht and wife's birthday parties.

global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by over 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. manus? manus: thank you very much. let's get to dani burger, who joins us with the market action. a lot of markets are closed going into big offense, not least of which the opec-plus meeting taking place virtually. it seems as if mobility is trumping the final round of discussions on iran and it is all about the demand side. dani: that demand side is crucially important and heading into that meeting, we are seeing prices run higher, just under $70 a barrel. it is the oil complex, the energy and commodities complex. that is where we are getting the interesting action. it is interesting that in that

light, but we do have of u.s. trading, it is the future markets and these moves are fractional, but they are carrying through a trend we saw on friday. small-cap outperformance versus the big tech. this is a trait we have seen put on by a lot of people, when they are concerned about reflationary markets, due to higher value stocks. as you say, the same thing might go for the stock market. do you want to be taking big risks right now, when we have a lot of important data coming later this week? let me give you a quick check on what european markets are doing so far this morning. it is not just the u.s. closed, it is the u.k. closed as well. we are not seeing any clear trends because you cannot go off of that. we are seeing a lot of bond proxies not doing so well. the big market story is going to

be china, changing policy when it comes to the rrr's. more people need to set aside more foreign currency reserves. there is an effect but it is not a huge one, but it does kind of signal that china is willing to take more action, when it comes to curbing some of the appreciation in the yuan. manus: i have heard lots of theories, that is to help them quell the inflation. that is a weapon they will use when it comes to china-u.s. relations. we will see you later, great to see you today in london. let's get more analysis. -- joins us from luxembourg. thank you very much for joining us. straight to the messaging. you saw the angst that the kiwi's cost last week but we have the pboc with a firm

message. i see this action over the past three or four days as the cease and desist order on the rally. what do you make of it? >> very strong messaging in the markets, very much keen on following the guidance it gets from the pboc. it should be quite effective. it is less effective for foreigners. they see the yuan appreciating on the back of growth in china, but also on the back of the fact that there is some confrontation between the united states and china. one way to avoid that is -- it is a difficult galaxy -- difficult balancing act. of course when the market gets excited, it becomes very dangerous because it is very difficult to control and they have to take a fairly harsh decision, to increase by 2%. manus: when you look at the

actions by china, in commodity speculation, here we are with reserve requirements. this is because i tightening by any other standard -- this is quasi-tightening by any other standard. sebastian: they looked into a lack of competition in their internet giants in their moving sector by sector, trying to address a huge problem, a significant problem and they are -- manus: how important is it that they have a you one to perpetuate growth? it may be a bit of a topping out. how inextricably linked is the currency function to the growth

function? sebastian: it is a poison pill in the long run. this is the difficulty china is faced with. if it lets currency always be cheap, it will be offering gunpowder to the rest of the world for very cheap, but gunpowder can be offered by -- and that is the issue. if you want to compete with vietnam, you cannot be the china of tomorrow. it is a difficult social problem that taiwan has also faced. there is criticism that they let their currency be too weak for too long. the same is happening in china on a much larger scale, and it is a problem they will need to manage over the next few years. it is a very significant problem, and that means they need to let their currency appreciate at a relatively slow pace, so that the economy can adjust and move to a more added value. stop competing with the likes of vietnam.

manus: the magic of the goldilocks pace of appreciation. the data this morning we have on the pmi front, if you go into that data, it is about the prices. i am looking at the input prices, the highest in 10 years. this is not just a china central problem. this is a global vexation. how do you adjust for what is a change in innovation. input prices are rising, and one needs to take preparatory action for that. how do you do that? sebastian: input prices are rising and transitory but if you are stuck in a company with a razor thin profit margin, then you are in trouble. you have to pass as much of that as you can to the consumer. it can be non-transitory, it just depends on the sector you're looking at. demand for wood in the u.s. is

pushing for higher prices of construction in the u.s.. eventually, we are going to go through a squeeze but as the data continues to be quite robust, then this process hasn't happened yet and a short recovery in the broad commodities space is to be expected. manus: i look at the bond markets. core pc is the highest it has been in 30 years and the bond market practically yawned. where do you fall down on that? many people are saying -- is priced in, get on with it. sebastian: what is probably going to happen is -- are going to disappoint and one of the reasons we were talking about inflation happening on the input side, but also happening on the -- aside.

you can work for your local restaurants, but you work at such a horrible rate that there is no way you are going to accept it, and you are going to work for amazon for four dollars more, so why should you accept this? as the weeks go on, you were forced to eventually accept it but this is happening right now and the labor data might disappoint. the expectation is roughly 660,000. the odds are it is going to be sub that number. we are looking at a duality of inflation, and that has to be resolved. it doesn't mean that in two to three months, the data won't be much better. this is what we also expect. speed bumps ahead, but a very good direction. i don't think this tapering is expected. we know the announcement generally has an impact. the bubble is so large in so

many asset classes that it is difficult to believe that social tapering is priced in. manus: sebastian, senior micro strategist over at -- asset management. many bubbles of incomparable sizes. amazon is on the block next. this is bloomberg. ♪

manus: amazon is facing

increasing scrutiny from lawmakers and even its own workers. this is the company claims the majority of its employees are well-paid, get good benefits and are happy. senator bernie sanders says that is not true. emily chang sat down with brad stone, to try and find out the truth. >> the truth is complicated and it is not a singular truth. you find pockets of discontent and happiness wherever you go. in alabama, unless that verdict is under -- is overturned, employees voted against the unification -- the union attempt. they are measured by algorithms, they are sometimes fired by algorithms. the company does a lot of things to ensure that its people are -- that if people are stagnating,

they are leaving. in some ways, that is not a very empathetic arrangement but it is complicated. there are parts of the world where the economic reality is so dire that a $15 per hour wage at an amazon fulfillment center is a comparatively good occupation. i think there are plenty of ways in which amazon can improve and bezos finally acknowledged that and says he wants to devote more time to it. at the same time, -- emily: it is not just lawmakers or employees. it is the sellers themselves which is part of what this new antitrust suit is based on. there is a huge conflict between amazon enabling all of these small businesses to reach the world, and yet sellers complain that they are forced to offer the lowest prices on amazon, even lower than their own

websites. what are the problems that you see, because you went back and talked to some sellers who five years ago were singing amazon's praises. brad: let me explain that. in lieu of some overarching poll that measured the sentiment of sellers, which was hard to do, i thought i would go to the seller's bezos mentioned in his investment letters over the years. almost to a one, they were really disgruntled by how things had turned out and had moved largely off of amazon. what that shows is the amazon frontier, the eco--- the e-commerce playing field is almost in turmoil, changing all the time. the playing field is increasingly tilted in favor of overseas sellers, chinese sellers close to their manufacturers. that is hard to compete. that is a better reality for a lot of sellers -- a bitter reality for a lot of sellers.

you asked about what are the anticompetitive elements, and there were a number of things they do, like the price parity provision where amazon is insisting that sellers sell at a lower price or equal price on amazon as elsewhere. the company has gotten so big, that it deserves attention. they could walk away from it and it doesn't hurt their business all that much. emily: you talked about aws. do you see other parts of amazon's power that should be scrutinized? brad: the most telling thing is how complex it because how complex a company is. the connections between the various divisions. some of the things that will get the most attention are the easiest to understand. we talked about price parity, but also amazon's stewardship of its private label businesses. the fact that when you search for batteries, amazon basics

shows up instead of competing brands. when you search for nutritional supplements, the ones amazon is doing now happens to be the one the foot -- happens to be the one the third party sellers are having the most success with. i think that will be looked at. i think amazon already senses it is vulnerable and has started to change. clearly it was behavior in the past that needs to be evaluated in terms of how amazon has grown and some of these new businesses have become an unstoppable juggernaut. emily: do you think amazon should or will be broken up? brad: i think that path is years long and probably ineffectual in the end. it is not a traditional monopoly. i have a dim view of that. as to whether they voluntarily do it at some point, i feel like bezos was never into that financial engineering. the company gets a lot of value by being together.

down the line as he becomes less of a force, if outside investors clamor for it, it would unlock some value. i expect we will hear more about it. manus: the breakup debate will continue. emily chang speaking to the author of amazon unwind. dani burger was listening and we talk about different sectors. it is interesting when you look at amazon. there is not one sell recommendation on this stock. not one hold. they are all buys. it is evangelism. dani: it really is. how are you going to bet against amazon? you could make this one argument that says valuations are so high, it doesn't make sense but if i were to tell you that last year or the year before that and you had listened, you will have lost out on a lot of money. i think that maybe -- i am

obsessed with looking at things in terms of rotations and there is a flavor of that today despite the u.s. markets being closed. maybe this value rotation will happen. maybe this is the first time i can tell you, don't look at amazon, valuations are too high. maybe markets will listen and that will be in ok bet. manus: that's it. the russell had a pretty amazing run. in terms of the rest of the markets, as you say, we are close. -- bubbles so large everywhere that no social taper is priced in. what else has caught your eye? dani: the china story is hugely important. so many different policies we learned of, today. allowing couples to have three kids instead of two.

trying to curb the appreciation of the yuan. we also have pmi data that suggested we have the peak of pmi, that manufacturing is now sort of getting normalized and i wonder if china is sort of the blueprint for the rest of the economy, if the mower -- if they were one of the first ones to open up. despite the u.s. in the u.k. being closed, you have to look at sea -- look and see what is happening in china to get those signals further out into the future, not to mention this generational problem of having an older population is one that affects many countries. manus: indeed. a fundamental shift on the policies for children in china. the you want is the strongest it's been in three years. we have a big basket of currencies as well. it is not just against the dollar. it is a broad place -- it is a broad problem for the po --

the pboc. d to be smart out there, and you need to share the vaccines. the message from gurria. this is bloomberg. ♪

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manus: welcome to bloomberg markets. i am manus cranny. tomorrow is the rba. we are going to bring you that news here on daybreak: middle east. they are trying to roll out the vaccine more aggressively in australia. families are being offered free flights for a year to get out there and get your vaccine, but volatility is rising. what they have the -- to join the kiwis and the cac in terms of intimating that they won't double down on their efforts on yield targeting for the november bonds?aussie is flying high

against the kiwi as well. we'll keep an eye on that rate decision and bring you that decision tomorrow morning. currencies very much in focus from the yuan to the aussie. let's reset the agenda with your "first word news." leigh-ann gerrans is with me in london. leigh-ann: iran and global powers have begun the latest round of talks to revise the 2015 nuclear agreement. 's russia envoy to the discussions in vienna says there is an understanding the current round should indeed be the last one. iran does want the u.s. to lift sanctions if it agrees to again follow the terms of the deal. president biden plans to tell vladimir putin the u.s. will not stand by and let russia abuse human rights. the leaders are set to meet on june 15 and 16th, speaking in delaware the president said he

also told chinese president xi jinping that the u.s. does not tolerate human rights abuses. the summer olympics in tokyo faces a shortage of doctors because of the coronavirus pandemic. organizers have initially planned to have about 10,000 doctors, nurses and medical staff on standby for the games, but they have had to cut that to about 7000 due to ongoing outbreaks. goldman sachs plans to double its real estate investments in japan. bloomberg has learned that goldman will increase investment to about $2.3 billion a year. the firm will focus on logistics , facilities, data centers and property owned by corporate owners. investors in china are paying little attention to the government's biggest crackdown on cryptocurrency trading since 2017. there has been a steady recovery on over-the-counter platforms that chinese crypto traders have

used since domestic exchanges were banned. this underscores the problems beijing may have in trying to rein in a speculative boom in digital assets. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by over 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. manus? manus: thank you very much. the oecd came out with its latest economic outlook today, saying there are reasons to be hopeful. the outlook is improving. they are predicting global output will rise by 6% this year after a 3.5% contraction last year. they caution the recovery will be uneven. let's get to my next guest, ing head of research and chief economist for asia-pacific. good to have you with me today. angel gurria's last outgoing

report as secretary general. when he asked -- when he was asked how strong the economy was globally, he talked about being robust but need the vaccine rollout to be smart and generous. he is talking about developed markets to emerging markets. how important is it for your outlook, that asia, which is where you focus the most, speeds up its reopening. how does that play out from an economic perspective? >> you are absolutely right. the oecd is talking about the big boys club of developed markets. the u.s., the u.k., europe increasingly getting in on the act. when you focus on asia, that is not the case. emerging markets making up more than 50% of global gdp equally, not the case. i think it is a bit sanguine to view this as being a reasonably robust -- in asia, if you look

at what is happening in most of the economies surrounding singapore, the restrictions on movement are tightening rather than easing and that is weighing on our forecast. we are certainly adjusting the forecast for 2021 down. worryingly, we saw some cases -- china has so far managed to avoid a second wave or any of the india variant that has been hitting other countries in asia. if this becomes a china phenomenon, it is going to change the backdrop for us. it is where all of our exports are going. the situation is very fluid right now. manus: rob, the world is littered with cliches. i am a cliche myself. the current one that seems to be trending is peak biden, but also peak china.

i bring the peak china story to you because you said you are carving or slicing off the top lines on your growth rates. tell me what you've got in for the bulwark of asia, and how that proliferates around the rest? the pmi's are indicating that we could be coming into a plateau in china. your numbers and then the ramifications, please. rob: the numbers for china are around the 7% to 8% mark and that is not tremendously strong for china. like every other economy around the world, those year on year rates are completely messed up. the reality, -- i would not overdo the pmi analogy about this being a peak. these were may figures, a gold week holiday.

you would have seen a lot of workers heading off to visit friends and family. that would have weighed on the manufacturing sector. the nonmanufacturing pmi's did make some further gains. that is encouraging, showing that things are moving quite nicely again. i am not quite as downbeat on those pmi's as some of the reports you have alluded to. manus: i -- of sydney harbor and the upper house, talking about extolling the virtues of a strong aussie. if you look at iron ore, it is just on a tear, up over 5%. we can debate whether we are in a commodities super cycle. oil is suited get $67 and iron

ore is tearing it up. you can see that we have brent up 1% and iron ore is also on the move. how big a threat is that, to the recovery in asia and em? rob: i think the evidence that it is of some where he is that the authorities in china are announcing steps to weigh in on some of this. i think they may try to discourage people from hoarding positives. if you hoard the commodities, the concern is is the pboc going to have to react to that? -- as a way to keep those local currencies down. they want to keep currencies

down because the new fx deposit reserves are going to be put into place. this is something that is almost running away from them a little bit. the growth recovery has been so good. it is now beginning to feed some of these potential problems for them. now it is about balance, trying to make sure prices don't go too much higher, that they do squeeze out some of the excessive demand that might not be supported by underlying activity, to try and get on top of all of that. it is a difficult balancing act. manus: it is. the rba has to walk this line tomorrow morning, that the kiwis guided us last week in terms of the back end of 2022. a look at the rba meeting tomorrow, and i'm just wondering what kind of tonality you expect from -- you said we are slightly ahead of ourselves, you said the word is closing down and trimming down. rba, the risk from the rba

tomorrow, that it could turn hawkish? rob: i wouldn't go down that way either. the message is that they are not trying to second-guess the economy. they want to see hard evidence that stuff has changed before they start to change their policy. it is a very different approach from central banks, the ones we are used to. i think they are quite reasonably taking the view that none of the models probably work right now, because you are living through such crazy times. evidence that things are going in a way that will require some action and that inflation has been low everywhere for so long. it does overshoot in little bit. i suspect there will be a slight deviation, a continuation between the rba and a very

dovish bias. manus: thank you for joining us today, rob carnell, ing head of research and chief economist on a pack -- on aipac. -- angel: i think the discussion regarding inflation is particular to the united states. it could maintain accommodative policy, so that inflation -- over time and long-term inflation expectations are well anchored around 2%. i think this policy stance is based on the recognition that it will take time to overcome low inflation, once it is entrenched.

as you know, this is also a lesson from japan's experience of prolonged inflation. that said, because it is true that central banks around the world have been conducting monetary policy while facing significant uncertainty, due to the shock of covid-19. in this situation, i think the appropriate conduct of monetary policy and effective -- is effective communication is important, in terms of ensuring market stability. >> does this mean that we will have to see -- we will have to wait longer in countries like japan and other countries for a change in policy? >> yes of course. each central bank has to adopt its monetary policy -- adapt its

monetary policy to its own economy price and its own situations. so that even if our economy recovers from the impact of covid-19, we expect by the end of this year, they could come back to the level before the pandemic, but as you know our inflation rate continues to be low and it will take time to achieve this target. i must say that in that sense, monetary easing will continue,

even after the economic recovery from the pandemic is achieved. manus: the bank of japan governor, there. coming up on the show, the john hopkins bloomberg school of public health vice dean. ♪

manus: it is bloomberg markets,

from our headquarters in dubai. i am manus cranny. let's get you the latest on the virus. u.s. disease experts says the world will someday need the cooperation of china to trace the origin of covid-19 to prevent future pandemic threats. let's bring in namic or stage -- naomi crosshatch -- this is very much a political statement by biden, giving 90 days for more information on the origin. information to support the theory of sars part ii. what are the key issues here? naomi: over the weekend, we saw the former fda commissioner who now sits on the board of pfizer saying that information to

support this theory has increased and that china hasn't provided evidence to disprove this theory, and then we saw another expert saying that how this pandemic started, not knowing how the start -- how the pandemic started puts the world at risk of future outbreaks. there is definitely a push for more investigation into exactly how this pandemic started in china. manus: thank you so much, naomi kresge, with a very latest. let's ask an expert, dr. joshua sharfstein, the vice dean at the johns hopkins bloomberg school of public health. let's start with this, because the origin of this global pandemic has started, where it started, the formulation of

that, it is necessary to say that -- when you look at this kind of call, saying this needs to be investigated and china has not provided the evidence to disprove this theory, do you support this move to demand more exposition from china? dr. sharfstein: i definitely support more investigation into the origins of the pandemic, because i do think it is important to understand what happened. i am concerned that if this turns too adversarial, we are going to have a hard time getting the information we need, and it will be another example of how we failed to come together as humanity against the virus. the virus will exploit every difference, including national conflict. hopefully there can be a way to arrange a credible investigation, that works.

chinese cooperation is going to be essential, to figure out what happened. manus: the president has called for a redoubling of their efforts and asked for reports to be given to him in 90 days. i wanted to expand. you say we don't want anymore conflict or adversary in terms of the investigation. what kind of data, what kind of information would you see as being progressive in the next 90 days, that you would see as being constructive? dr. sharfstein: i think the president is right in saying this is a serious issue to investigate and we want to understand what facts are out there, and then share those. there is a commitment to some transparency around that. i think that they are going to look at a few things, like when and where the infection started. they would like to understand aspects of the genetics of the

virus and see whether there is evidence -- what this virus might have been linked to, mutations introduced to the virus, and go through each of the parts of the case and see just how strong it is. i don't think that is a problem. i think that is important for there to be a global conversation about how to do this. i am worried that if it becomes too adversarial, it won't happen. manus: can we circle back to the united states? it is memorial day weekend, people are traveling. the number of cases in the united states is the lowest since march of last year. the number of deaths have fallen to the lowest 11 months -- lowest in 11 months. how would you describe the current state of vaccination?

i am seeking a promotion in australia, get a free flight to the u.s., grab a beer and get your shot. are we seeing vaccine fatigue? dr. sharfstein: it is definitely good news that we are seeing cases and deaths falling dramatically so far, but we haven't vaccinated enough people in this country to really protect against future surges and people who are unvaccinated are still at risk and there is evidence they are still getting sick and going to the hospital. there is a lot more work to be done in the united states to protect the country from the coronavirus. i do think the fact that 62% of americans have gotten the first shot is a good thing and we are heading in the right direction. it will need to be closer to 80% according to the models, in order to head off a false urge. manus: -- a fall surge. manus: when could we see that 80%? dr. sharfstein: that is not up to me.

it is hard to predict. it depends on people going to take the vaccine. it could be this summer, but it depends. i think the thing is to not let the number of cases, even if it seems to be going away, the coronavirus is still waiting. it will take advantage of people who have lost their immunity. it will take advantage of that in the fall, as the weather gets colder. now is the time to get more people vaccinated. that means outreach, thinking about communities at higher risk, where there are lower rates of vaccination, spending extra money to work with community partners. all of those strategies are essential to avoid a problem later. manus: that pfizer vaccine has been authorized for 12 to 15-year-olds. that was done on may 10. i know the incidence of covid in

children is less than adults. this is an important progressive milestone isn't it? dr. sharfstein: yes, and i think the moderna vaccine also has some positive data. pretty soon, we will start seeing data for kids who are younger. it is great news to have a safe and effective vaccine. we are obviously in the authorization stage. there is a lot of data being collected about vaccinations. kids can get sick, pass the virus on to others. i think this is important, and there are a lot of parents i know going out with their kids who are really breathing a sigh of relief as they get vaccinated. manus: enjoy, and have a safe rest of memorial day weekend, dr. joshua sharfstein. coming up in the next hour of bloomberg markets, the oecd with

their semiannual economic forecast raising their global growth forecast that they warned of an uneven global recovery today. we will hear what the outgoing secretary-general, angel gurria, right here on bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> a very good morning from our headquarters in dubai. it is "bloomberg markets" with me, manus cranny. the oecd raising its 2021 global growth forecast, but warning of an uneven recovery ahead. china lifting its two-child rule in an effort to boost the country's birth rate and fixed the looming economic problem of an aging population. plus, china's factory data holds firm for the month. despite recent volatility, cryptocurrency platform -- is committed. the founder tells us why he is

expecting able market the summer. what exactly are the risks to your market this week? it could be that the be boc -- the pboc unseat's the rally in the yuan. why would you take risk in a jobs week? the pboc have issued a cease-and-desist noticed. what do i mean by that? they have raised the fx requirement to 7%. you have seen the first drop in the yuan in four sessions. they are attacking the rally on multiple fronts, but nowhere more than the jawboning from the pboc. also we are seeing this triple hike could freeze around $24 billion of liquidity. we will see what the fx markets make of that later this evening.

will they dare to challenge the pboc? to the crypto markets and the equity markets, where should we go next? let's have a quick look at u.s. equity futures. futures are open. there are bubbles so large everywhere that there's not even a sense of a taper at play any of these markets -- at play in any of these markets. down a dot on s&p futures. bank of america saying we are at peak positioning. get ready for long inflation assets, seeing money flowing to the cash funds the most since april 2020. let's give you a quick idea of what is going on in crypto land. goldman sachs says be careful. there's a fragility around bitcoin, up 5% this morning,

between $33,000 and $39,000. that's the range you've got on bitcoin. goldman sachs talks about the fragility of bitcoin. they wonder, could ether -- let's get the first word news. leigh-ann gerrans has that from london. leigh-ann: china will now allow couples to have a third child, and attempts to raise the birth rate. for many years, china limited most families to have only a single child. that policy was relaxed back in 2016. now the oecd has raised its global gdp forecast for this

year, but the paris-based group warns that the recovery will indeed be uneven and that living standards for some people won't return to pre-pandemic levels for an extended period. the new forecast calls for 5.8% growth in 2021, up 0.2% from the last outlook. in israel, prime minister benjamin netanyahu's opponents are moving closer to ousting him. one of his former allies has agreed to form the alternative government his rivals are trying to form. israel has had four inconclusive elections in the last two years. in texas, democratic lawmakers have blocked a restrictive voting bill that was on the verge of passage last night. they walked out of the house chamber just before midnight. republican governor greg abbott says he will call a special session to try to pass the voting bill yet again.

the measure would have eliminated drive-thru voting and imposed new requirements to cast a mail-in ballot. critics say it is aimed at suppressing minority votes. shares of chinese food delivery giant mate one rose after better-than-expected quarterly results. it has also detailed plans to address government concerns about its business practices. the chinese government has been carrying out an antitrust investigation. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. manus: thank you very much. let's get to dani burger. she joins us in the london studio with the market action. to a certain extent, we are getting ready for the opec+

meeting, and oil just does not seem bothered by the prospect of iran and the u.s. doing a do deal -- doing a new deal and supply coming back to the markets. let's talk about oil and that's pretty good rally. dani: exactly, i put a good rally, up about 1% so far today. when it comes to brent. the demand picture is there, and to some degree, you have producers who aren't exactly set up to all of a sudden ramp up production. that is not the world we are living in. think about last week which we had those huge defeats in some of the oil majors, like exxon when it comes to their environmental policy, trying to move away from fossil fuel. so the trend is there, a very different story when it comes to opec+. but the commodity sector is a clear trend today, moving higher. when it comes to the rest of the market, i thought you did such a good job laying out these risks. if you are an fx trader, you have to deal with what is coming

out of china. you have to think about the dreaded nfp this friday that had such a big mess last week. i was looking at the bloomberg survey results. the range is huge. on the low end, you have the expectation that we are going to add 50,000 jobs. on the high-end, you have one million jobs. this is such a difficult market to position for, especially on a day where a lot is not trading. perhaps you put all of your eggs in the stronger dollar versus the yuan basket, but the trend so far has been a weaker dollar, so this is a very difficult one to trade. manus: the real risk is that you get such a strong report that it could really reignite those inflation expectations moving from the transitory to something a little bit more gripping. we will get plenty of fed speak, including mr. harker. thank you, bloomberg's dani burger. a warm welcome to you if you are tuning in a more real day --

tuning in on memorial day. let's get to steen jakobsen, my guest from saxo, the cio, sage of all things markets. great to have you with me this morning. we've got a lot to get through over the next hour, so let's just pause for thought. what message do you take away from the pboc raising? is that another measure of tightening? steen: for the chinese right now, they are trying to balance between the commodity price rises coming into the economy, which they want to somehow get a buffer from, and at the same time remain competitive. i don't think the chinese are concerned about being able to do exports because simply, the spillover from in particular the u.s. economy is so strong, that pacitti and china is running at almost 100% -- that capacity in

china is running at almost 100%. they don't necessarily see the level as an issue. they just think it's got a little bit out of hand. remember, we are into the quiet period of the no-fly zone in terms of the 100 year anniversary. the centenary is all in the rhetoric. everyone wants to have stability into july 1, so i see this very much as business as normal. manus: so that will keep stability as being the core. do you think this is a flesh wound to those people who want to belong -- you want to be long yuan? steen: it is, but i think participation in that trade is limited. i think to some extent, that

trade is not very busy in terms of actual positioning. but overall, i think the strengthening of the one makes sense into the commodity. but overall, i don't make too much of that geopolitically. to me, what comes out from the centenary is far more important politically because the chinese classically use these kind of events to create a new path, and i think this time the path is this co2 emission reduction, and that is much heavier a topic to entangle into your strategy going forward. manus: so using more green and the dominance of china in that green thesis, are they further ahead? how do you take that into consideration when you construct a portfolio? steen: similar to what happens in europe and globally, there's

a mitch match -- there's a mismatch between the political aspirations of 2060 as a zero emissions year and 2050. implementing those same targets in terms of policy is very different, so what classically happens in china and the cycle you have in china is that up until the july 1 celebration, you will have no policy enactment. you will not evade have the committee doing this. but every local government official, every bureaucrat around the system needs to come up with what are the co2 reduction plans, but the actual enactment and decision will come to fruition in q3 and q4. what's interesting about the investment here is that when china wants to go to co2 emissions, they are recharging the commodity cycle through the

metal use, the battery use, that also, and this is the most interesting part, they also have to balance the growth, so if china wants to run at 5.5%, 6%, we will need to see china reverse into a stimulus policy by q4. in other words, when we put action to the green agenda, we also have two immediate impulses to follow through, a revitalization of the commodity cycle, but most importantly, that china needs to show how they are going to support growth in an environment where they have to invest heavily into the green transformation. manus: let's explore that for a moment. so you think they lean into a more stimulative environment in the fourth quarter, probably through fiscal. does that mean for commodities? because they issued a warning on the commodity market just a week ago. tie those two together for me. stimulus and the fourth quarter, and the commodity rally where we are now, and where it goes to.

steen: probably one of the things the west tends to over interpret is the actual clampdown on the commodity, as you headlined yourself. what is really going on at the state council, and you can see that from the reading of the tea leaves, the reason behind this is that the state owned enterprises, the soe's are not profitable anymore. so it makes all of the sectors that use commodities inputs, it makes them very highly unprofitable. actually, very big lossmaking entities. what china is trying to do with the clampdown on commodities is not to upset the commodity cycle per se, but it is to sate the state owned enterprises in china. ultimately, you cannot do carbonized -- cannot de-c

arbonize without middle in the industry. -- without metal in the industry. but overall, china will come back online. manus: thank you very much. we are going to dive into cryptocurrencies next with steen jakobsen from saxo bank. this is bloomberg. ♪

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manus: it is "bloomberg markets" this monday morning from our middle east headquarters in dubai. i'm manus cranny. the bitcoin cryptocurrency has led central bankers to cast dice on cryptic currency, and the threat of regulation continues. one platform remains invested to investing in crypto. >> i believe it is just a price adjustment, and we will see bull markets in july and august. i still believe the bull market is still there, and we will continue to see developments of cryptocurrency. for example, this year we have experienced growth from $100 million to almost $30 billion to

date, and i believe this year we will continue to grow to $100 billion from our network, and our global settlement amount has surpassed paypal. right now we are five times more than paypal is doing. right now our settlement amount is $10 billion, while paypal is only $2 billion, so i have confidence in our industry. >> absolutely, but people have perhaps been trying to eat into that confidence. the bank of japan governor, let's not forget other financial institutions, looking perhaps like they have been changing their minds on the cryptocurrencies. also, elon musk very opaque as to what he's been up to. do all of these things create a sort of undermined confidence?

>> yes, definitely i believe elon musk's comments about the cryptocurrency is legit. i have definitely seen -- establish an alliance to try to tackle this problem by using green energy rather than cold energy. -- rather than coal energy. also, people are using proof of stake rather than proof of work currently used for bitcoin to try to reduce the carbon and energy by 99% and still keep the efficiency. for example, we use one of the

most popular mechanisms in cryptocurrency, which we reduce the energy consumption by 99%, but also improve the efficiency by 100 times. >> but having said that, should you be concerned about the warnings from china against crypto mining? it's part of why it has been so volatile in that space. >> yes, definitely the china news about crypto is very important, but there is no single person or factor that can control the market. i believe most of the reason is because it has been up for the whole year. think we need to see some adjustments come in the right time. but i believe even today, china

has tried to put more strict regulation on crypto, but still, crypto is going to grow in china because right now, crypto in china also has interest tied to the local government, to lots of people's jobs in china, so i don't think china can crackdown on crypto overnight. manus: that was justin sun, the tron founder. steen jakobsen is with saxo bank. he has seen a few bubbles in his time. if you listen back to that interview, they are now processing five times the size of payments that paypal is. that is the system. but when i look at the cryptocurrency down on the month

, are you convinced that there is a capitulation catharsis and an opportunity here in crypto? steen: i think when you get into the space of crypto, you are going into a cult. it is pretty much on my opinion based on network. on the far left, you have the ponzi scheme. on the far right, you have an internet like new innovation. i think there's room for both sides of that. working in an organization that actually facilitates crypto trading as well, i am slightly more positive. but calling july or august, i haven't the slightest idea. what i think is interesting is what i call the tre of crypto, which is taxes, regulation, and environment. it is pretty clear to me as an old geezer being around, by

virtue of just my age, trying to make sense of this, it is pretty clear that the tre is the reason why we are down. it is not because the religious cult of crypto has weakened. it is really because it is trying to get this under control. underneath that, when i talk to technologists and people in the marketplace, what is really interesting from a technology point of view is that we are now into the third generation of crypto. bitcoin being the first one, finite issuance and a payment. you have a cerium -- you have ethereum, the smart contracts. now we have the third generation. they are really trying to do a proof of stake instead of proof of work, which reduces the incentive to use energy. so i think this space is just going to evolve, but i think the

growth, to be honest, and i have a small allocation to the crypto space in my overall long-term portfolio, i think over the summer i have to force myself from bitcoin and it there he him -- and ethereum into the more aggressive third because that's where i think the future is, an environment which is tax compliant and certainly operating side beside with the centralized system that the central bank clearly wants to create. manus: it certainly is one of the debates out there, as you said. by the way, age does not preclude you from having if you want crypto or digital. i take on bridge -- i take umbrage with that. steen jakobsen stays with us because older people can stay longer. the cio at saxo, we will get his reaction to the oecd's economic

outlook. we are from dubai today, a special for memorial day. we hope you are having a good day off. this is bloomberg. ♪

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♪ manus: from our middle east headquarters in dubai, a warm welcome to "bloomberg markets," with me, manus cranny. 7:30 a.m. in new york. futures vacillating between the red and the green. it is memorial day. i should tell you the president of the united states will travel from delaware to the white house, then to arlington. he will go to the tomb of the unknown soldier and make an address with the sicker a defense. it is it -- the secretary of defense. it is expected he might lean into the proposed withdrawal from troop -- of troops from

around the world, including afghanistan. the first lady and the vice president will also attend. there we go, beautiful site in the united states of america. if you are not worried about power, you are worried about how to power up the barbecue. i love this chart. apparently it is getting costly for the iceberg lettuce, cheese, burgers. you are seeing the price of your average barbecue in the united states america -- we don't have that. we will talk about that in a moment. i've been defeated. there's only one thing i asked for in the three hours. i wanted the price of a burger. defeated. that's get to leigh-ann gerrans. she always delivers. let's get the first word news from london. leigh-ann: good morning, manus.

iran and global powers have begun the latest talks to revive the 2015 nuclear agreement. russia's envoy to the discussions in vienna says there's an understanding that the current rout should be the last one. president biden plans to tell vladimir putin the u.s. -- speaking in delaware, the president says he also has told china's president xi jinping that the u.s. doesn't tolerate human rights abuses. the summer olympics in tokyo faces a shortage of doctors because of the coronavirus pandemic. organizers initially planned to have about 10,000 doctors, nurses, and medical staff on standby for the games, but they've had to cut that to about

7000 due to ongoing outbreaks of the virus. investors in china are paying little attention to the government's crackdown on cryptocurrency trading since 2017. there's been a steady recovery on over-the-counter platforms that chinese crypto traders have used since domestic exchanges were banned. that underscores that beijing may have been trying to rein in the speculative boom in physical assets. goldman sachs plans to double its real estate investment in japan. bloomberg has learned that goldman will increase investment to about $2.3 billion a year. the firm will focus on logistics facilities, data centers, and properties offloaded by corporate owners. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm leigh-ann gerrans.

this is bloomberg. manus: thank you very much. great to have you with me today. to the oecd. they have released their latest economic outlook this morning, saying those reasons to be hopeful. they projected that global output will rise by nearly 6% this year after a 3.5% contraction last year. but the caution is there the recovery will be uneven. bloomberg matt miller spoke with the outgoing oecd secretary-general this morning. >> we feel it is pretty solid, pretty robust, but it depends crucially on whether we can keep up the rhythm of vaccination. it is vaccination, vaccination, vaccination. that is going to define how robust the recovery is. and the other question is is it going to be vaccination only for the wealthiest countries, or are

we going to generalize it? we need a very important effort to be able to get vaccines into the arms of people in developing and emerging economies, and without that, we won't be able to say that we have overcome the crisis. matt: the wealthiest countries are going to be looking at 60%, 70% coverage in the next weeks and months. they are well on the way to done. how long is it going to take developing nations to get to that kind of vaccination coverage? angel: the answer is how smart and how generous the developed countries will be. if they are smart and generous,

that means that it is the same. being smart means being generous. being generous means being smart. then we should fund mechanisms like covax. we should get only a fraction of the trillions that have been thrown at the virus. just a fraction of that will do the trick to vaccinate everybody in the developing world with between 50 and 100 billion, whereas expert -- whereas upwards of $16 trillion has been dedicated to fighting the virus, so only a fraction will do it. matt: we know there's going to be an uneven recovery because of this discrepancy in the vaccination paces. and in fact, some developing nations are going to take years

to catch up to the levels the eu and the u.s. are looking at right now. what are the risks of such an uneven recovery? angel: the risk is now it has become almost a cliche to say nobody is safe until everybody is safe, and also because the enemy is mutating. s the enemy has variant -- the enemy has variants. it is changing its dna, and therefore we should not allow it to do just that. we should try to beat it as early as possible. and by the way, it is a fools dilemma to say we should balance the economy, the lives and the livelihoods, the question of health and the question of the economy.

clearly, the very obvious choice is to get the virus, kill the virus, beat the virus first, and then, because the virus is having immediate consequences on the economic side, on the social side, those will stop the moment we stop the virus. manus: that was the oecd secretary-general angel gurria speaking to matt miller this morning. my guest is steen jakobsen of saxo bank. the secretary-general talks about the developed world needing to be smart and generous, to characteristics which are sometimes in short order. when you look at the global recovery, it is so apparent it is between rich and poor, developed markets and perhaps more emerging markets. to what extent does that

differentiation drive your asset allocation in the near term? steen: it is certainly a factor. i think the inequality of the world is a social phenomenon that will be part of the narrative in macro terms, but also in policy terms. i fully understand why, but the whole interview is about vaccination, and there was close to zero referencing to the actual economic impact. the report actually had two or three pointers which are very essential in my opinion for the investment outlook. but basically, it means certain parts of the economy like south africa, running a 1% vaccination rate, these countries cannot come online. in the case of south africa, if we go back to the commodity cycle, they have huge reservoirs of those commodity metals we need. so i think there's huge implications for not living up to this in terms of what we do.

but clearly, we need everyone to go to a certain level. simply, the way the program is running right now, we are at 30% this week, next week at 40%, so i think the rollout in the western world is very good. the logistics are slightly more difficult in some of these places, but overall, it means that the policymakers will continue to talk emergency at a time when there is too much liquidity in the western world and too little support for some of the developing markets. manus: they do warn of inflation. let's talk about the nuances of the economics. isaac it is a light warning. i'm surprised it isn't heavier. inflation is expected to increase temporarily. the longer-term outlook remains uncertain with upside risks.

can i try to distill this down to what happened last week with the bond market? i had one detailed conversation with someone in asia who said that the stoicism of the bond market shows another belief that a social paper has been priced in. can u.s. scribe to that view that we have a social paper already priced in? sebastian galli vehemently disagrees with me. steen: i think what is going on in terms of the u.s. bond market and the overall direction of global interest rates is that the excess liquidity being provided by the general account rundown, the fact that the money supply in the u.s. has gone up by 25%, without the federal reserve tooling it such that the banks can actually take this deposit, has created such a rich liquidity, plus the forward

guidance. if you combine all of those provisions, we are talking about an effective rate cut between 50 and 150 basis points, which means if the u.s. interest rate has gone nowhere and inflation not being priced in, relatively speaking, it's but support at 5200 basis points, which means the effective rate without the stimulus would have been 3%, 2.25% in august. i think overall, the market needs to address the fact that fiscal stimulus is very much the name of the narrative, and then you have every single central bank, every single verse engineering institute in the world, including imf, oecd, ecb, and everyone else coming out with reports that we need to keep the stimulus in place longer. if that doesn't lead to higher interest rates, then certainly i am too old for this game. [laughter]

manus: back to the age thing again. very quickly, real rates are the lowest since the 1970's. does that give you any heart at all that inflation is not a threat? steen: not at all. it just reflects what i just said, that the excess liquidity in the short-term and the ill ability -- and the ill ability -- and the inability of the fed to navigate the short-term means we will have a interest rate when we come into september, and i think september is a taper meeting for the fed. manus: you know what? sometimes there is an advantage in age because you have seen eight tightening cycle before, you've seen a boom/bust before. i power must -- i promised you a barbecue chart. if you are waking up this morning in the united states of america for memorial day, it is

going to cost you a little bit more for the burger, for the cheese, for the iceberg lettuce, and indeed, for the crisps. never forget the crisps. let's give you a quick snapshot. . we are going to talk about airlines next. that's coming up here on "bloomberg markets. " ♪

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manus: it's your memorial day addition of "bloomberg markets," with me, manus cranny, from our middle east headquarters in dubai. -- has lashed out against airbus, warning they might start take deliveries from the playmaker this year over an unspecified issue. the cryptic comments came during an exclusive interview with bloomberg. they begin with the fourth take -- with the take on the fourth blending of a ryanair jet in belarus. >> our government injected $3 billion into our equity because we were burning cash, but keep

in mind there's not an airline in the world that has not gone to their government for help. >> you went to airbus and act for -- and asked for deferred deliveries of aircraft. are you asking for any deliveries this year? >> yes, we are taking deliveries from boeing and we are earmarked to take deliveries from airbus. if we are not able to settle the serious issue we have with them, we will refuse to take any aircraft with them until any issues with them are resolved. i unfortunately cannot tell you what that issue is, but it is a serious issue which they need them to address, or qatar airways will not take any deliveries from the. >> does it have to do with the a380's?

>> that has nothing to do with the relationship with airbus. that is water under the bridge. they need to know that we are a very serious and important player. they should know that affecting our relationship with them should cost them strength in the relationship with other airlines which we have shareholding. >> so you are not going to be the launch customer. >> we are the launch customer. >> you are the launch customer? >> yes, and we are looking forward to receiving them. >> what is the timing, exactly? >> boeing has delayed deliveries until 2023. we are fine if they can deliver it to us in 2022.

we will accept them. the only problem we have is there is a stress in the supply chain for the entire aviation industry, and i hope that will be resolved by the time we are due to receive our 777x. >> why? >> he has his opinions. i have mine. i think my opinion in the industry matters more than his opinion. i am still not due to retire. >> what is your outlook in terms of m&a over the next 18, 24 months? when do you think it will be a good time? >> it is difficult to say because there is no resolution to the pandemic. there are waves and waves of infections happening.

it is so unpredictable that we don't know how to plan. >> that is qatar airways. let's stick with travel. it is memorial day weekend, and is the unofficial kickoff of the driving season. join us now for a look at what travel will be like as we emerge from the pandemic. senior news editor at the point sky, and american travel

website, thanks for being with me. i've had to travel in the past eight weeks to zurich. tell me how my experience will be different than in the rest of the world. >> if you can even get into america, right now it is pretty tough for most people in the world. it would be similar in the united states if you are traveling to hawaii or puerto rico, but within the united states itself, almost all of the restrictions are gone. we are keeping a close eye on it and we have a state-by-state guide to where you can go. international is where we really have trouble traveling to this day. manus: let's come back to a vaccine passport. where are you on that? i've spoken to several ceos at emirates, etc. saying we are going to need a vaccine passport

to get us back traveling globally. what can you tell me about the american ability to accept a vaccine passport? >> as you probably know, vaccine passports have become very politicized in the united states. i do not think you will see a vaccine passport issued by the united states. there might be something with individual companies who offer them. there are several companies developing them. the eu is developing a green passport system. they had such blowback that they pulled back from that, so i don't think that is a realistic possibility for the united states. the closest thing you're going to have this point is just your vaccination card that americans are getting. there's a lot of good news here. americans are vaccinated now, and increasingly are traveling. our domestic travel has rebounded almost completely from

where we were pre-pandemic. >> where is the winning hotspot? is it those people that can message me and say we've got safety aspects, we've got your health first and foremost? does that message work? >> it works to a certain degree. i think what i have seen and what the point sky has seen is in general, once people are vaccinated, domestically that has resulted in incredible demand to places like hawaii and alaska. manus: as you say, leave the mask at the door. i think the rest of us dream of the ability to do that. clint henderson of the point sky -- of the points guy. i'm going to leave this edition of "bloomberg markets" with a

live shot of the arlington national cemetery. joe biden will deliver a memorial day address later. the first lady will join him a little bit later in the day. it is memorial. i'm manus cranny. it has been a pleasure to be with you for the past couple of hours from our middle east headquarters. ers.

♪ "bloomberg markets -- ♪ >> is very good morning. i'm manus cranny, live from dubai. it is "bloomberg markets." they we cd raising its global growth forecast, warning of an uneven global recovery ahead. we hear some of bloomberg's interview with the sectary general. china lifting its two child rule

in an effort to boost the country's birth rate and fixed the looming problem of an aging population is chinese factory data holds firm for the month. a warm welcome to memorial day edition of "bloomberg markets." oil trading a little but higher this morning, getting ready for the opec+ meeting tomorrow. there's belief in the demand cycle as americans get back on planes and go traveling. you are seeing demand around the world revived. this is a dominant factor rather than the concern about iran barrels coming back to supply.

they have issued a cease-and-desist order and set a weaker fixed rate to raise the fx reserve requirement. that essentially is withdrawing liquidity from the system. but going up nearly 5% this morning. we saw ben emmons at medley global advisors saying he thought a triple bottom had formed. investors are talking about bitcoin perhaps moving its first mover advantage. we will hear more in a moment. let's have a look at what is going on with the equity market. cash is closed. it is memorial day. 4200 is where we are. they see peak positioning in the equity markets. the largest inflow of cash since 2020, and futures in the bond market are lower by eight this morning. slightly higher yields. are we getting nervous before the jobs report?

we might be. there is a warning that the post-pandemic rebound will fuel inequality. bloomberg's matt miller spoke to the oecd secretary-general a little bit earlier about the pace of the economic recovery. >> we feel it is pretty solid, pretty robust, but it depends crucially on whether we can keep up the rhythm of vaccination. that is going to define how robust the recovery is. and the other question is is it going to be vaccination only for the wealthiest countries, or are we going to generalize it? we need a very important effort to be able to get vaccines into the arms of people in developing

and emerging economies, and without that, we won't be able to say that we've overcome the crisis. match: the wealthiest countries are going to be looking at 60%, 70% coverage in the next weeks and months. they are well on the way to done. how long is it going to take developing nations to get to that kind of vaccination coverage? angel: the answer is how smart and how generous the developed countries will be. if they are smart and generous, that means it is the same. being smart means being generous. being generous means being smart.

then we should fund mechanisms like covax, we should get only a fraction of the trillions that have been thrown at the virus. just a fraction of that will do the trick. we could vaccinate everybody in the developing world with between 50 and $100 billion, whereas upwards of $16 trillion has been dedicated to fighting the virus. so only a fraction will do it. matt: we know there is going to be an uneven recovery because of this discrepancy in the vaccination paces, and in fact, some developing nations are going to take years to catch up to the levels the eu and the u.s. are looking at right now. what are the risks of such an uneven recovery?

angel: it has become almost a cliche to say that nobody is safe until everybody is safe. and also because the enemy is mutating. the enemy has variants. it is changing its shape, its dna, and therefore we should not allow it to do just that. should try to beat it as early as possible. and by the way, it is a fools dilemma to say we should balance the economy, the lives and the livelihoods, the question of health and the question of the economy. clearly the very obvious choice

is to kill the virus, beat the virus first, and then, because the virus is having immediate consequences on the economic side, on the social side, and those will stop the moment we stop the virus. manus: angel gurria, the oecd secretary-general, speaking with matt miller earlier today. that's get to my next guest , aditya bhave, bank of america securities economist. if we are living in the west in developed markets, we are taking off our masks and traveling. the reality is if you are in singapore or the rest of the world, you are facing the restrictions. you are facing variants. is there a risk that we are running to the hills recovery so quickly that we leave a part of the world behind?

aditya: good morning. i think our outlook is quite similar to the oecd's. we have revised our economic outlook the key driver being the faster than expected pace of vaccination in developing countries. they have ended up at similar numbers two hours for global growth. there's a bit of a concern from both our side and there's about supply shortages, but divergence is a very important theme in our research as well, not only between the u.s. and the developing world, but also even between the u.s. and the euro area, so we actually differ from the oecd a little bit on that, a significantly greater divergence on either side of the atlantic.

manus: you have seen more u.s. exceptionalism relative to europe? or how do the scales of recalibration look to you? aditya: right. we are similar to the oecd for 2021 in the u.s., around 7%. we have 5.5% growth next year in the u.s.. the driver there is that we do expect a very large infrastructure bill to get passed, and that should help boost u.s. growth even next year. moving to europe, we have 3.7% growth both this year and next year, whereas the oecd is in the 4% range. the reason we are more pessimistic is we are quite concerned about the lack of fiscal response in europe. we think that could move along the scarring, particularly in

the business sector. divergence in the pace of vaccinations is a very important issue, but there is another thing going on which is divergence in fiscal policy, and there the u.s. is significantly ahead of the rest of the world. manus: and obviously the fiscal plans laid out and will be debated in great will. the fiscal plan you have assessed so far, are you concerned about the deficit that will be consequential with that? i'm reading that the deficit relevant -- the deficit this funding will deliver is not exactly stellar, is it? aditya: we are actually a bit more optimistic on that in terms of growth. we are looking at 5.5% growth next year. we don't have an official forecast for 2023, but that should be a pretty strong number as well. we do think the deficit -- sorry, the stimulus will lead to

significantly stronger growth. we put out a piece just a few days ago arguing that deficit finance spending can be even more effective when rates are stuck at zero, because you are not crying out private investment. in terms of our concerns about the deficit, i would say that the u.s. does enjoy an extraordinarily unique position in terms of being the world's reserve currency, so there is this underlying demand for dollars which helps the u.s. fund large deficits. but again, i think we are more concerned about shorter-term issues such as supply shortages and labor shortages in the u.s., and concerns about the deficit longer-term. manus: those shortages will be consequential in terms of the inflation. i get the sense that you think

we are in the transitory camp of the inflation push that we are seeing at the moment. aditya: i would say yes and no. let's talk about the goods side first. these are global issues. for example, the semiconductor chip shortage affecting auto production. there's all these other shortage issues that are rippling through global supply chains. where the u.s. stands out in our view is in a couple of ways. the first is just the fact that it is also facing labor shortages. these tend to be stickier. they will infect get worse as the business cycle advances, even if goods shortages hopefully get better over the next several months. on the goods side, it could be transitive. but on the labor side, it could continue to get worse, and we have to remember that the extent of shortages is also a function

of how quickly demand is growing. it is not just a function of supply conditions. so when demand is growing very fast, you can get more inflationary pressures. manus: thank you so much for being with me this morning. the very latest on the outlook for the u.s. economy and beyond. let's get to london. laura wright is with me. laura: china will now allow couples to have a third child, an attempt to help an aging population that are a threat to the country's long-term economic prospects. for many years, china limited families to only have one child. in israel, prime minister benjamin netanyahu's opponents are moving closer to ousting him . one of his former allies has now agreed to join the alternative government that has rivaled him. global news 24 hours a day, on

air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm laura wright. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ manus: it is memorial day.

from our middle east headquarters in dubai, let me give you a quick look at what is going on in equity markets. you've got a market which is up 12% since the beginning of the air on the stoxx 600. we are back up this morning despite the likes of oil flying higher. sb futures flat at the moment. bank of america did their v for victory survey. they saw money going into cash and gold. but i would give you a little bit of a flash of iron ore. this is on the futures side, but you look at iron ore, even though china is starting to curb the markets, you are looking for these base metals really to add into a resurgence. goldman says the chinese have lost control of the markets. volatility picking up, and we are looking at a monthly gain after the attempt to curb those

markets. we will leave you with that thought in your mind. let's see what pine ridge makes of these markets. -- pine ridge -- what pinebridge makes of these markets. anik sen, the global head of equities, joins me now. i look at with the pboc are doing, really trying to grapple with bubbles, and i am waiting for data from the united states to give me direction from the bond markets. how do you look at markets as we stand today? anik: from a valuation standpoint, i don't think it is just the equity markets. i think all asset classes are trading at their highs, and there is tightness right now from a historical standpoint. but his history necessarily a good guide? much has changed, particularly

with average inflation targeting, and that clearly has a very important impact in terms of the cycles going forward. i think that is a very important point. i think the other important factor that is driving markets right now is that there's a lot of style rotations that are happening at very frequent paces. the markets have become quite jittery underneath the water line, and that requires a little bit of caution. i think the most important feature that is driving markets is six decades of markets driving inflection points, and the most important thing in the market right now is what is the nature of inflation. is it transitory? what does transitory actually mean? i think those are the most important questions that are in front of investors right now. back to you. [laughter] manus: you've given me a

memorial day barbecue feast there. let's delve into the inflation side of the equation. bank of america makes the point that you want some sort of inflation exposure at the back end of the year. the question i am grappling with is this. whether inflation expectations are becoming, and i use the phrase unmoored, moving to un-anchored, to out of control in the view of the fed. i would say inflation expectations are un-mooring and have the ability to move to un0 ancho -- to move to un-anchor ed. anik: it matters a great deal for markets and particularly the fed. when i look at many of the input prices right now, and there are

many samples, clearly there's a shortage that is a supply issue. we had production issues, but there are many other input prices that are currently spiking. you talked about iron ore a few minutes ago. if you look at grains, whether it is soy or corn, there are in each cases supply issues, particularly to do with the ramping up of supply. it is a covert related problem. and even labor shortages, the ability to crank back labor in the united states has caused some supply problems in the demand that is clearly ramping up quickly. i think a lot of these supply shortages, we look at the data

and the daily prince that comes through in terms of output, and on the input, it will take a long time and how long it takes these bottlenecks to clear. i think the idea of mooring and anchoring will be well-established, and our view is that fears that inflationary expectations, at this stage the long-term view of technology and demographics, none of that has actually changed. we are at record levels of

unemployment, but inflation was missing even then. a lot of the transitory nature of the reopening, where you've had these supply constraints, are now starting to ease, and that is where i think sentiment in the market is going to flip-flop. right now there's a little bit of a sense of sanguine-ness coming back in. but as soon as we get a high print of the current spot inflation, i think we will flip. manus: so we are in flip-flop land. but how do you anchor the portfolio in the face of flip-flop-itis? anik: that is a very good word. we have a specific output target which is the gradual change of companies over time because that's one of the biggest drivers of output, so it is true the resurge is through the

bottom up stock collection. there's a lot of mispricing of that particular off a driver, the reason being the market tends to be very focused on quarterly results. so if you are very clear on the output target, what we do now portfolios is to drive down neutrality. we are not taking any particular top-down calls in the portfolio, nor are we taking unresearched positions. we tend not to take positions in macro drivers because at the moment, these are pretty unclear. so running a core type of portfolio focusing very much on the gradual change in companies, it does take proprietary

frameworks, and we are fortunate that over the last 15 to 20 years, we have found these tools to be effective. manus: we will draw a line under it there. anik sen at pinebridge investments, global head of equities. al head of equities.

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manus: lashed out at for the first time this month, here's our exclusive interview with bloomberg's simone foxman. >> we are a state owned company. our government injected 3 billion into our equity. $3 billion because we were burning cash. keep in mind, there is not a single airline in the world who has not gone to their government for help. they have gone for the government for help.

simone: you went to airbus and boeing and asked for deferred deliveries. akbar: we are taking deliveries from boeing and we are earmarked to take deliveries from airbus. we have an issue with airbus we need to set up. if we are not able to settle that serious issue we have with them, we will refuse to take any aircraft from them until our issues with them is settled. i cannot tell you what that issue is, but it is a serious issue which we need them to address. simone: does that have to do -- akbar: -- doesn't it have to do with the three 80's? akbar: that has nothing to do. that is water under the bridge. what is important is our future

relationship with them. they need to know they are a and important player. they should know affecting our relationship with them will cost them a relationship with iag, with other airlines in which we have shareholdings. simone: the boeing 777x is hotly anticipated. it will not be launch customer. akbar: we are the launch customer. yes. we are looking forward to receiving them. simone: what is the timing? akbar: boeing has delayed the deliveries until 2022. we are fine. if they can deliver in 2022, we will accept them. the only problem we have is there is a stress in the supply chain for the entire aviation

industry. i hope that will be resolved by the time we are due to receive our 777x. simone: tim clark has bashed the 777x. why? akbar: he has his opinion. i have mine. i think my opinion in the industry matters more than his opinion. simone: what is your outlook in terms of m&a over the next 18 to 24 months? when you think will be a good time? akbar: it is difficult to say because there is no resolution to the pandemic. there are waves of infections happening. there are spikes in certain regions. australia thought they had completely eradicated and now melbourne is under lockdown.

it is so unpredictable that we do not know how to plan what we will do from here to next. manus: that was the qatar airways ceo. his opinion matters more than the man at the top of emirates. i wonder what kind of difficult conversation that can make for. bloomberg's joe weisenthal also took out what the broader hospitality industry is doing for return to travel. joe: cruises, concerts, live music venues. shares of companies in this space have gone rocketed back in recent months. check out royal caribbean. it basically quadrupled off the lows in march. this is before the virus is gone. take a look at shares of live nation. this is one of the first stops

umble ab ago when fears of the virus started to mount. these days it is on a total tear. people are ready to flock back to nightclubs. look at shares of rci hospitality. unbelievable run, well above precrisis highs. the global vaccine rollout gathering steam. reopening optimism in full swing. more than 200 45 shots globally administered to date. some come from -- some countries making significant gains. >> will see more countries reopen our tourist sector as we have the airlines function more normally. it is to fill them up with people that have been vaccinated. >> three opening trade is red-hot but if you look back to 11 months ago, all of the talk about a bailout, the fed credit backstops, they will prompt up zombie companies that will not thrive, it turns out there was

nothing broken about any of these business models, they were just massively disrupted by a once in a century pandemic it looks like consumers are ready to splurge and what they are offering yet again. manus: that was bloomberg's joe weisenthal taking a look at companies and what they're doing to prepare for the reopening. into by -- in dubai you have to show your vaccination on an app before you have a drink. giancarlo carniani is with the florence hotels. you are getting ready to reopen your business do you have a sense there is pent-up demand? what to the bookings look like? how ready for the great reopening are you? giancarlo: we did reopen two of our hotels at the beginning of the month.

most of the hotels in florence have reopened. about 60%. some are waiting for the beginning of july, hopefully with the green pass situation it will get better because for the moment the average occupation is really low. it is not like that in the mountains, where we are seeing a pickup of reservation. it is still mostly domestic and european travel. people are still traveling by their own cars instead of taking a plane or train. let's say -- manus: we wish you well with the season. i get the sense the european season will run later and longer as these vaccines continue to rollout. is that your sense that the traditional season may get a bit

longer? giancarlo: it is the feeling we have. i've spoken with a lot of collaborators who were telling me people still want to take vacation in wintertime. i would not be surprised if we will have a good wintertime because with the vaccination campaign, we hopefully will be up for december. it seems people are ready to spend on vacation for next year. we stuffed await for the initial travels. it mostly depends on air traffic and how it will be back to normal.

i would guess fall 2022 would be a new way of doing business. another thing we have seen -- manus: can i ask you how important it is that, let's say, the u.k. turns european countries like italy off amber onto green? giancarlo: it is very important. imagine for my city, florence, which is loved by the u.k. people. last year we saw the brief time between wave one and wave two of the coronavirus we saw a lot of people from the u.k., especially in numbers coming down to italy. i know the prime minister has said he might take more time to have us back to normal. we will follow the situation. without the u.k., without the

u.s., it is hard to make business. manus: the tourism industry, the tourism minister has supported the eu green certificate. how important is that for travelers to have confidence and for people who work in the hospitality industry to feel confident about engaging in their jobs? giancarlo: it is very important. it is months we are speaking with the government to push to allow this way to authenticate you had the vaccination. it makes people more free to travel. it is a change. we are very grant the european union -- we are very glad the

european union finally accepted that. we like to see how it will work because we do not have any details yet. we know from june 15, the european union will have that. that will bring things back to normal in a while. in the fall we are expecting to be out of this nightmare. manus: we are trying to understand the wage pressures. in europe migrants come from all over and dissent on the italian cities to work and generate the tourism industry. you had the switch on the lights and reopen florence. are you seeing it easy for people to get staffed come are using wages rise? giancarlo: it is difficult to bring back people to work after such a long period of staying home.

it is like something has changed in the mentality, of the staff, of the client. we need to adopt a new measure to have people stay confident at work -- stay comfortable at work . some of them was really difficult, especially the second wave has impacted a lot. the first wave, it took three months. the second wave has been difficult for the staff to understand and stay home and also wages were not the level the government gave them. for some of them it was a tough period and a long period. imagine a father with three children and the wife has to

survive with mostly 800 or 900 euros a month. it is quite difficult for them. what i can see everyone is trying to have a new approach. thank you. manus: we wish you well with the season. stay safe and i look forward to getting back to florence. one of the most beautiful places i've ever traveled to in my entire life. i hope to return very soon. giancarlo carniani, florence hotels general manager. if it is possible get out, get the covid test, get on planes, try to get your life back to normal. that is the message from around the world. i have done it. five covid test. it is worth it. this is bloomberg. ♪

laura: here's your first word news. president biden plans to tell vladimir putin the u.s. will not stand by and let russia views human rights. the leaders are said to meet june 15 and 16th. speaking in delaware the president said he is also told xi jinping the u.s. does not tolerate human rights abuses. iran and global powers have begun talks to revive the 2015 nuclear agreement. russia's envoys in vienna said there is an understanding the current draft should be the last one. i ran does want the u.s. to lift sanctions. the summer olympics in tokyo faces a shortage of doctors because of the pandemic. organizers plan to have about 10,000 doctors and medical staff on standby for the games. they have had to cut that to about 7000 due to ongoing outbreaks. goldman sachs wants to double its real estate investment in japan.

bloomberg has learned goldman will increase investment. focusing on logistics, data centers common properties offloaded by corporate owners. apple says there has been progress in the behavior of its manufacturing partners. improvements include reductions in major violations of its code of conduct and no cases of child labor. apple has come under fire in the fast for its suppliers failing to meet the company standards. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am laura wright. this is bloomberg. manus: thank you very much. volatility has left central bankers -- on cryptocurrency and threatened regulations are ever present. the fund remains committed to

investing in cryptocurrency. >> i believe we will see all markets in june, july, august. i believe the market is still there and we will continue to see involvements of cryptocurrency. for example, on trial this year has experienced explosion growth. we have grown to almost $30 billion today and i believe in the future will continue to grow to $100 billion on tron network. our global settlement amount has surpassed paypal. right now we are five times more than paypal is doing. our settlement amount is $10 billion. i definitely have confidence in our industry.

>> people have been trying to perhaps eat into that confidence. the bank of japan governor and various other institutions are looking like they could be changing their mind on the cryptocurrencies. on top of that elon musk very opaque as to what he has been up to. all of these could create -- might undermine confidence. justin: i believe concern about cryptocurrency is legit. the cryptocurrency industry needs to find a green solution for cryptocurrency. i have seen a lot -- they have established alliance to try to tackle the problems by using green energy rather than coal

energy. also at the same time, people focus more eyes on proof of stake rather than proof of work. try to reduce the carbon and energy by 99% as you keep the efficiency -- tron, who use one of the most popular mechanisms in cryptocurrency, which we will use the energy consumption -- which we reduce energy consumption by 99% and improve efficiency by 100 times. >> having said that, should you be concerned about the warnings from china against crypto mining? it is part of why it has been so volatile in that space. justin: definitely china's

recent news about crypto is very important. i want to say no single person or factor can control the market. i believe the crypto market -- most of the reason is that has been up for the year. we need to see some adjustments. i believe even today china is trying to put more strength and regulation on crypto. still crypto will bro in china like most countries do. right now crypto in china also has local government, a loss of people's jobs in china. i do not think china can crackdown on crypto overnight. manus: that was justin sun from

tron, the founder and ceo. let me get you up to speed with your business flash headlines. laura wright joins me from london. actually, i will give it a go. it has been a long day and they do not let me lead very often. apple reportedly -- even as the pandemic drives online sales. apple senior finance president tells a german newspaper stories connate -- create a connection with people and offer them a chance to experience new technology. there about 500 stores around the world. investors in china are paying little attention to the government's biggest -- there has been a steady recovery on platforms that chinese crypto traders have used since domestic exchanges were banned. that underscores the problems beijing may have trying to rein in the speculative boom on

digital assets. goldman sachs plans to double its investment in japan. bloomberg has learned goldman will increase its investment to $2.3 billion a year. the firm will focus on logistics facilities, data centers, and corporate owners. that sets the agenda on your business flash headlines from around the world. you can ask me directly whether i did as well as laura. have a great day, enjoy your barbecue. the price of burgers has gone up. tomorrow morning, when you're wake up post burger, post bud light or whatever else you have in your hand, you may well reflect on what is going on for central banks in the world. the rba delivers their nuanced report tomorrow. the pboc has raised -- to 7%. the currency has reacted in a

small manner to the cease-and-desist order they have taking to jawboning the currency. crewed up 1.5%. i can tell you the opec report says demand will be 6 billion barrels. ringback accrued. crude is -- bring back the crude. ♪

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♪

annmarie: it is 2:00 in london, 9:00 new york. i am annmarie hordern. welcome to "bloomberg markets." that we cd out with its global economic outlook, warning of an uneven global recovery. we hear some of bloomberg's interview with the secretary-general. china lifting its two child r ule. this is china's factory holds firm on the month and day. oil advancing head of an opec-plus policy meeting as traders expect rising demand to absorb plan production increases. a very good morning to you if you're joining me on the side of the atlantic. good afternoon if you're awake in europe. it is memorial day in the united states and he u.k.'s bring back holiday. low volume.

you can see what we are doing in terms of equities. the stoxx 600, down .15%. we see a little bit of red on the screen if you look a clause that u.s. equity futures and across the european equity market if it comes to the dax, the cac 40, and the ibex. there is a story overnight. that is the fx market from china. china has taken one of the most substantial moves we have seen yet to put a pause on the yuan rally. no more of this verbal intervention. they are forcing banks to hold more foreign currencies in reserve for the first time in a decade. not that big of a move. the dollar yuan 6.3 692. the story on the oil market is the fine line between demand

against the fact that potentially there could be a breakthrough in vienna with the nuclear talks with iran. that would meet more iranian oil coming to the market. let's dive into everything we just discussed with joe gilbert, integrity asset portfolio manager. thank you for spending memorial day with me this morning. happy memorial day to you. i want to start with what happened overnight in china. that was a move we kind of knew what to expect given the verbal from the pboc in beijing. now they are using their tools. do you think this can hold the pause? joe: thanks for having me. i think ultimately china has probably stockpiled a lot of the raw materials that has caused a lot of global inflation between iron ore and copper, even crude oil to an extent.

they want to take a little but of the volatility and inflation out of their economy. this ultimately helps achieve that goal. annmarie: this is a way to fight some of the commodity prices. do you think the pboc will have to do more? joe: i think ultimately it will come down to where inventory levels are. what we have seen historically is china likes to buy a lot of raw materials in bulk. once they get to a significant level, then they halt their buying. ultimately we see this play out as it historically has always played out. i would not be surprised if this would be the demarcation to suggest inflation may have pete. -- may have peaked.

annmarie: do you think we will see more inflation being exported from china? joe: in the near term, sure. as you have vaccinations increasing and economies reopening, you will have a lot of -- a lot more inflation in the next three to six months. that is ok. when you close the world, which is what you did, now you're reopening. i think what you will have is economies will generate a fair amount of inflation. i do not think it will be entrenched. annmarie: arguably the most important data point we will get is on friday. markets will potentially be in a holding pattern until we get the jobs report. what are you expecting from the jobs report? will it confirm that the report last month was a blip or are we

going to see potentially more weakness in the labor market? joe: that is probably the million dollar question. i do not think last month job report is indicative of what this economy is doing. i think when we get to this friday, there will be a jobs report -- you have 24 states that have removed a lot of the extra federal stimulus. you'll probably get the marginal people that would not be sitting at home back into the job force. that will get the overall economy going again. i think the jobs report on friday will be a lot stronger and last month was probably more of an aberration. annmarie: 650 thousand is what

the street is expecting, what economists are expecting. what is your range? joe: i do not have a quantitative range, but i think directionally it could be a lot higher than 650,000. you have a lot more vaccinations , a lot more consumer confidence , you have people who have not been comfortable going back to the labor force have potentially been more induced to go back. i think you will be positively surprised. annmarie: if the fed is so focused on employment over inflation, do you think tapering is still a bit away given the fact you think this will show the labor market is improving, but was still have to make up for the dismal report for april. joe: i think the fed will be on hold for a while, at least for rates. they will communicate pretty clearly and pretty decisively

that they want to reduce the amount of buying they are doing. ultimately i would think that as we get to the end of the year we will -- the tapering will be pulled into 2021. that will be a function of stronger job growth, not a function of inflation. annmarie: thanks a much for joining me. you will stick around a little bit longer. joe gilbert, integrity asset management portfolio managers. let's turn to our business flash with laura wright in london. laura: apple or reportedly open more retail stores even after the pandemic drives online sales. apples senior vice president tells a newspaper the stores create a connection with people and offer them a chance to experience new technology. there are about 500 apple stores around the world. investors in china are paying little attention to the government's biggest crackdown on cryptocurrency trading since

2017. there has been a steady recovery on over-the-counter platforms that chinese crypto traders have used since domestic exchanges were banned. this underscores a problem beijing may have had in trying to rein in a speculative boom in digital assets. goldman sachs wants to double its retail investment in japan. it will increase investment to $2.3 billion a year, focusing on logistics, data centers, and properties offloaded by corporate owners. that is headlines. annmarie: the oecd upgrades its forecast for global growth for 2021. our interview with the outgoing secretary-general is coming up next. this is bloomberg. ♪

annmarie: 9:10 in new york. oecd boosted its forecast for global growth 5.8% from 5.6% but they are warning post-pandemic rebounds could fuel inequality. matt miller spoke with angel gurria about that pace of economic recovery. take a listen. >> we feel it is pre-solid, it is pretty robust. it depends on whether we could keep up the rhythm of vaccination. it is vaccination, vaccination. that will define how robust the recovery is, and the other question is is it going to be vaccination only for the wealthiest countries or are we going to generalize it.

we need an important effort to get vaccines into the arms of people in developing and emerging economies. without that, we will not be able to say we have overcome the crisis. matt: the wealthiest countries are going to be looking at 60% to 70% coverage in the next weeks and months. they are well on the way to don. how long is it going to take developing nations to get to that kind of vaccination coverage? sec. gen. gurria: the answer is how smart and how generous the developed countries will be. if they are smart and generous, that means it is the same.

being smart means being generous, being generous mean smart. then we should fund mechanisms like covax. we should get only a fraction of the trillions that have been thrown at the virus. just a fraction of that will do the trick. you can vaccinate everybody in the developing world with between 50 and 100 billion. where is upwards of 16 trillion has been dedicated to fighting the virus. only a fraction will do it. matt: we know there is going to be an iv been written -- we know there is going to be an uneven recovery because of this discrepancy in the vaccination pacing. some developing nations are going to take years to catch up to the levels the eu and the

u.s. are looking at right now. what are the risks of such an uneven recovery? sec. gen. gurria: the risk is, it has become almost a cliche to say nobody is safe until everybody is safe. also because the enemy is mutating. the enemy has variants. it is changing its shape, its dna, and therefore we should not allow it to do just that. we should try to beat it as early as possible. i the way, it is a false dilemma to say we should balance the economy -- the lives and the livelihoods. the question of health and the question of the economy. clearly the obvious choice is

get the virus, kill the virus, beat the virus first. then because the the virus is having an impact on the social side, this will stop the moment we stop the virus. annmarie: oecd secretary-general speaking with matt miller. the outgoing secretary-general. for more joe gilbert is still with us. joe, one thing that struck me as he said nobody is safe until everyone is safe. you can also that -- you can also say that about economic growth. how reliant is the developed world economic growth on the rest of the world getting covid under control? joe: that is pre-much the real key. once the world changed at the

beginning of 2020. ultimately once vaccination started, you can see the real demarcation in november of 2020, once you had the positive news out of pfizer and biontech. what you really need is vaccinations to become a lot more widespread. as any economy that has at a critical mass of vaccinations has begun to rebound. i think it will cascade across the globe. it takes time. it takes a lot of infrastructure. it takes money. that is the key to making a real widespread global growth story. michael: the report also -- annmarie: the report also talked about the post-pandemic rebound could pose inflation risk. in the interview he also spoke that that should not be the focus.

he is also looking around the world. in the united states the inflation debate is one of the most contested in financial markets. what is your view? is inflation going to be fleeting or something we will have to deal with on a more sustained basis? joe: ultimately nothing solves high prices like high prices. i think inflation -- i do not like to use the word, i think it will be a lot more transitory. not more entrenched. inflation that becomes entrenched will be more based upon a lot more inflation. i do not think we will get there. annmarie: what you want to do if you are looking at transitory inflation in the united states? how are you going to expose yourself in the equity market? joe: the best way to play that is with small-cap value stocks. these are strong inflation beneficiaries.

usually inflation comes because there is growth. these stops and this asset class is really sensitive to growth. as long as the backdrop is stronger growth with modest inflation, this is where you want to be positioned. this is how you can outperform the market. annmarie: are you worried about inflation hurting corporate margins? joe: in the near term, that is a risk. the market is prepared to look through that. the message has been communicated that there are bottlenecks and there will be some aspects of inflationary pressures that will come through , that corporate managers will have to deal with. price increasing does not happen overnight. there will be a potential risk. i believe the market is willing to look through that because it

is one of those things that will take a quarter or two, but ultimately i think corporate margins will be sustained at a higher level because we have stronger-than-expected growth. annmarie: you also have a view on a stronger dollar. what is the impact of a stronger dollar on these globally love to u.s. corporate names? joe: if we get a stronger dollar , that stops a lot of the inflationary pressure. a weaker dollar helps commodities. we are getting to the tipping point where a stronger dollar will help stop some of the inflationary pressure. from the multinational companies , the stronger dollar probably does not help their earnings as much. that is what you want to be in small-cap stocks. annmarie: thanks a much for joining us in spending your memorial day with us. hope you get out to a barbecue. joe gilbert, integrity asset management for folio manager. coming up, mr. lee spac -- a

mystery spac. more on that, next. this is bloomberg. ♪

annmarie: good morning. this is "bloomberg markets." qatar airways ceo akbar al baker lashed out at airbus for the second time this month, warning his airline might stop taking deliveries from the french plane maker over an unspecified "serious" issue. here's an exclusive interview with bloomberg simone foxman. akbar: we are a state owned company. our government injected 3 billion into our equity. $3 billion because we were burning cash. keep in mind there is not a single airline in the world who

has not gone to their government for help. they have gone to the government for help. simone: you went to airbus and boeing and asked for deferred deliveries of aircraft. are you taking any deliveries this year? akbar: yes. we are taking deliveries from bowing. we are earmarked to take deliveries from airbus. we have an issue with airbus that we need to settle. if we are not able to settle that serious issue we have with them, we will refuse to take any aircraft from them until our issues with them is resolved. simone: which aircraft -- akbar: i cannot tell you what the issue is but it is a serious issue we need them to address or qatar airways will not take any deliveries. simone: does that have to do with the a380? akbar: that has nothing to do with the relationship with

airbus. that is already for us water under the bridge. what is important is our future relationship with them. they need to know they are a very serious and very important player. they should know that affecting our relationship with them will cause them a strength the relationship with iag. simone: the boeing 777x is hotly anticipated but you will not be the launch customer. akbar: we are the launch customer. yes. we are looking forward to receiving them. simone: what is the timing? akbar: boeing has delayed the deliveries until 2023. we are fine. if they can deliver it to us in

2022, we will accept them. the only problem we have is it is a stress in the supply chain. i hope that will be resolved by the time we are due to receive our 777x. simone: emirates tim clark has bashed the 777x. why? akbar: he has his opinions, i have mine. i think my opinion in this industry matters more than his opinion. i am still not do to retire. simone: what is your outlook in terms of m&a over the next 18 to 24 months? when you think it will be a good time? akbar: it is difficult to say because there's is not a solution to the pandemic. there are waves of infections happening. there are spikes in certain

regions. australia thought they had completely eradicated, now suddenly melbourne is under lockdown. it is so unpredictable that we do not know how to plan what we will do from year to next. annmarie: qatar airways ceo akbar al baker speaking exclusively to bloomberg's simone foxman on difficulties with the suppliers. let's check on where we trade this memorial day. it is also u.k. bank holiday. relatively low volumes. the benchmark in europe down .2%. it is going to be a lot of struggle for direction this week as we lead up to the friday job report for stop more next. this is bloomberg. ♪

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annmarie: good morning. i am annmarie hordern. let's turn to german politics. the green party appears to be losing momentum, declining for the second week as angela merkel's party clause back their support. bloomberg's aggie cantrell has more from berlin. we see the green starting to lose some of this pretty big base they had at the start. is this the peak of the green momentum? aggie: it seems they have lost some of the initial support they lost. that might just be a peak from initial excitement about someone new coming out of the german political stage. it is worth noting while they have lost some of the momentum, the gap between the cdu and the greens is significantly smaller than it was last year, where the greens were pulling at 38% to 39% of the start of the pandemic

. whatever happens in september, the races much tighter than it was a year ago. annmarie: that is true. what you think caused this slowdown? aggie: for the greens, there are two sides. some of it might be initial peak . when you start looking at the party more closely, they are not so sure. they're also a couple of things that have hit annalynne personally like a little bit of a scandal that came out a week or so ago over undeclared bonuses she had received from the green party. i do not think these things may hit her long-term, but it is definitely, these things come to the public eye. annmarie: as we look ahead to september, what is the growing consensus of who will take the reins after 16 years from angela merkel? aggie: last set is definitely in the running. he is probably the most likely at this point because there are so many people in germany who

still support the cpu as the common option. it is not worth discounting the greens because it is also worth noting the greens have not just gained support from former angela merkel voters, they also gain support from former social democrat voters. it may mean the greens have managed to take away some of the middle of the ground voters from angela merkel and they should not be discounted. annmarie: if that does happen, what is the chance of a three party coalition? aggie: the chance of a three party coalition is pretty high. as i pointed out earlier, the poll numbers for the cdu have dropped significantly and there are lots of parties hovering between the teens in the early 20's in the polls. for that reason you could be seeing the most simple option to create a coalition would be a three-way coalition if the cdu

at the greens do not get over that crucial 15% margin. annmarie: has the vaccination program affected any of this? we see germany opening up to children. hasn't helped any party in particular? aggie: i am sure the cdu will be able to grab a hold of some of the vaccination rollout success that has happened. that was definitely something that had hit them in earlier polling when places like the u.s. and u.k. seem to have a lot of momentum in their vaccination campaign than germany did. i do not think it is a zero-sum game. it depends to what extent the lockdowns have affected a lot of industries and whether or not people will be able to travel abroad as to whether or not people are really happy with the vaccination program or not stop annmarie: thanks so much -- or not. . thanks so much to aggie

cantrell. for more we welcome maximilian kunkel. let's start with the greens. losing a little bit of meant mental. they fell 22% -- losing a little but of momentum. they fell 22 percent. losing to the christian democratic party, the second loss. what you think is behind it? maximilian: i think on the one hand, we have to distinguish. we think the greens are still going to come out strong in the election. the key behind that is climate change is front and center amongst the broader electorate and what they care about. on the other hand we think the c du will regain a lot of momentum as we are seeing a reopening of the economy and seeing the vaccine accelerate. what we come out with is a coalition led by the cdu, the

conservatives come into greens. annmarie: what if that coalition do not get enough votes? maximilian: that it depends on the consolation. we think the most likely outcome will be cdu goes with the greens and ftp. annmarie: angela merkel has been at the helm for 16 years. given your base case, what will change from a governmental point of view with the greens coming in to a cdu, csu coalition? maximilian: the biggest focus is going to be on a much bigger focus from the parties from a regulatory perspective, from a political perspective, a fiscal

perspective for making germany more digital, smarter in terms of infrastructure, and also greener. redoubling down a lot of the efforts already announced. from an investor perspective, we think that will ultimately drive and acceleration of adoption of investment strategies, among institution investors as well as private investors. annmarie: would this be the most welcome coalition for investors? maximilian: most probably, yes. annmarie: what would be a surprise to global financial markets? maximilian: a surprise would be a green led coalition with the green spd. what you might get in the first place is financial markets being somewhat concerned about uncertain developments with

regards to regulation, economic policy, and that is only going to settle where you understand where the positions will be. if you get to that point, we also have to look at on the one hand it will likely have more onerous implications for the private sector. at the same time, you will have relatively strong fiscal expansion intentions, which could also be seen as positive. that would have to be balanced. annmarie: what about things like nord stream 2, which the brain party says they want to dismantle on day one. to those kind of deals done under angela merkel scare investors? maximilian: i am not sure they scare investors, but we have to

look at that, and specifically in for net -- specifically if investors are interested in these areas. when specifically talking about nord stream 2, if you were to have the greens going to government, it very much depends on how much power they would have. they would probably try and not get through with nord stream 2. on the other hand, in our base case, we do think the issue with government would be the project will go through. generally, not just with regards to foreign policy with russia but also potentially to china, the greens and their focus on climate neutrality as well as greater focus on human rights could lead to a more challenging atmosphere on the foreign policy side in the near-term. annmarie: even if the greens do

not get into full control of power, it is obvious there is momentum behind them. much more of the electorate in germany is behind green initiatives. what does this mean in terms of digitalization, sustainability. is any government in germany don't have to start to implement some of these things? maximilian: absolutely. it is front and center amongst the broader electorate and what they care about. you can see that in most surveys. that is all about climate change, it is all about getting the economy fit for the post-pandemic environment and what many economists call the fourth industrial revolution. what we will be looking for post election is a looser fiscal policy and a change in fiscal

policy from trying to limit the damage from lockdowns towards investments for future growth. making the economy and the labor force prepared for what many people call the fourth industrial revolution. germany -- germany has lagged in terms of productivity growth significantly. we are also seeing the labor force shrinking quite dramatically over the next few years. these types of investments will be critical. they will not just come from the fiscal side, but given the magnitude of investments they will also come from the private side. that is likely going to lead to opportunities for investors. annmarie: what about the shift itself? angela merkel has been at the helm for 16 years.

she has been almost the face of europe and the glue that holds it together. who is best from an individual perspective to step into that role? maximilian: most people will probably see lasch at as the one leading germany into a roll post merkel best, given continuity and that he is well-regarded european wide as someone with the necessary experience. that is part of our base case where you have the issuance as the main party. annmarie: maximilian, think is a much for joining us. maximilian kunkel, ubs global wealth management. crude topic $67 on optimism. market forecast from opec-plus.

we will discuss what to expect from meeting tomorrow with christian malik, jp morgan head of oil and gas research. he has an 80 tarlow -- he has an $80 target on brent for your end. this is bloomberg. ♪

annmarie: you're looking at the principal room. coming up the next hour, statistics investor manager solutions head of global market strategy. this is bloomberg. good morning. 9:45 this memorial day in new york. 2:45 in london. oil trading higher ahead of the opec tomorrow. the cartel now seeing oil demand will exceed supply by 1.4 million barrels a day according

to a document seen by bloomberg. moran what to expect from the meeting, joining me is christyan malek, jp morgan head of global oil and gas research. let's set the scene for what to expect for suppliers tomorrow. is more production set to come online for july and august? is that what they will signal? christyan: absolutely. the key input is measuring the view, deciding how oil is progression, taking vaccine, the efficacy of vaccines which leaves demand. the second how industry is responding to high oil prices. opec was very focused on discipline and policing the market. we are not seeing bad behaviors. i would not be surprised to see opec continue as is with a 2 million barrel increase in production across student july. -- across june and july.

annmarie: the demand side looks optimistic. when you and jp morgan think we can see this country started to catch up with what we are seeing in the united states and europe? christyan: you're already seeing aviation between 2 million and 2.5 million barrels. why we are anticipating aviation to increase, what is surprising is to the upside is demand at pre-covid levels. the u.s. approaching pre-covid levels in europe. that has been compensating for slower than expected aviation fuel response. demand is likely to get around 6 million barrels. likely to get 98 million barrels by the next quarter. the magic number is 100 million barrels. a survey of every thousand investors, what we found was one in five investors believe demand

will not move past the 100 million barrel demand mark. x patients -- expectations are quite muted. annmarie: also happening in vienna is tops on the iran nuclear deal. the russian envoy set these are the final negotiations, meeting we are close to the resurgence of the jcpoa. what is the timeline for iranian barrels coming back into play? christyan: the second half of this year. what is important to consider is how does opec-plus respond to iran. they have been very accommodating. you've seen russia and saudi lead the charge in terms of anticipating iranian barrels back in. that is important, as well as the fact that our sense is the oil markets are anticipating

something like 100,000 barrels from iran. now if we do not see a deal, it is likely that risk reward is to the upside. christyan: you have a price target for $80 for the end of the year. do you think demand will outpace the supply coming from iran? christyan: absolutely. we are no longer at zero-sum. demand will continue to progress. one of our key messages -- we anticipate supplies would not be able to keep up with demand, may be because the industry is under house arrest. shareholders, whether it is equity or debt do not want to see majors reinvest excess cash flow into production. they want to see debt deleveraging, they want to see cash returns.

in some ways you have a straitjacket on the industry, which may be transitory. during the window -- meanwhile supply is in this handcuffed environment where it cannot respond. the elasticity is not there. you have arising deficit and the likelihood of an overshoot. we expect the path to $100 oil is likely. haiti is our base case and 100 is our upside scenario. annmarie: i am glad you brought up shareholders. we spoke to the chevron ceo falling what happened last week. a group of shareholders supported them to start including the fuel products they sell. >> investors are focused on this, as we are. it is part of the environment today for companies that are

providers of energy. i believe our industry is part of the solution. we have the technical capability , the project management capability, the engineering acumen and the financial capacity to be part of the solution. annmarie: it was not just chevron. exxon was forced at climate conscious board members. shell head up there targets in terms of greenhouse gas. what does it mean for investment in terms of the fossil fuel companies? how they do it? christyan: it is a great point. the risk is we end up in a self fulfilling prophecy where the shareholders force fossil fuel capex lower, whereas demand continues to rise, very dependent on oil. web situation where we cannot find -- we have a situation where we cannot find alternative sources.

there is a risk of a short world. we have to balance the rate of change of decarbonization against the risk we end up overshooting on capex, which is where we are today, and we end up behind 100 to $200. it would be inhumane. we have to balance between d carbon rising oil and gas in the right way to change versus making sure we keep demand sustained through this period. this is where the u.s. industry is struggling in order to make sure. potentially they give could be cash return. if they have to spend more on nominal capex as well as the carbonized, that could infringe on the ability to return cash. that is where the source could

be from. annmarie: we saw how hard it was to go in and cut those dividends. christyan malek, thank you for joining us. more up next. this is bloomberg. ♪

annmarie: good morning in new york. good afternoon in europe. here is laura wright. laura: apple says there has been progress in the behavior of its manufacturing partners. the company says improvements include a reduction in major violations of its code of conduct and no cases of child labor. apple has come under fire for it suppliers failing to meet company standards. french investigators are in beirut to interrogate carlos ghosn, the former chairman of nissan and we should be sheet has lived in lebanon since his dramatic escape from japan a

year and a half child. french authorities have acute -- a year-and-a-half ago to escape trial. shares of chinese food delivery giant rose more than 10%. the company unveiled better-than-expected quarterly results and also details plans to address government concerns about its business practices. the chinese government has been carrying out an antitrust investigation. that is your bloomberg business flash. i am laura wright. annmarie: laura wright in london. there is what we are watching this week. tomorrow italy is reopening, opec is meeting, and i say manufacturing numbers. on wednesday agm from comcast, walmart, alphabet, and facebook posting its developers conference. friday the jobs report. more next. this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> 3:00 p.m. in london, 10:00 a.m. in new york on this memorial day. i'm annmarie hordern. welcome to "bloomberg markets." the oecd out with its semiannual economic outlook, raising its global growth forecast, but warning of an uneven global recovery ahead. we hear some of bloomberg's interview with the secretary-general. china takes its most visible step yet to curb the yuan's gains. plus, oil advancing ahead of an opec-plus policy meeting as traders expect rising demand to result in a planned production increase. happy monday if you are just a regular monday in europe. that's where we trade this morning on the stoxx 600, down more than 0.2%. but given the fact that we have u.k. and u.s. markets closed,

keeping a lid on some of the volumes we are seeing today. the big story came overnight from the pboc. they are now taking aim and trying to put a lid on this massive rally we have seen in the last few weeks. right now, the dollar-yuan is 6.37. this is the first time of such a hike since 2007. brent crude, we are ever so close to $70 a barrel, up 1.4 percent. opec+ will be meeting tomorrow. it looks like the market is focusing on the fact that more people are flying, more people are driving. vaccination campaigns are starting to accelerate around the world. on the other side, at some point potentially, they are always going to be worried about supply. iranian nuclear talks so ticking place right now in vienna. for more on the markets, let's bring in esty dwek, natixis

head of global market strategy. they are actually going to move fx was herbs. do you think this will -- fx rivers herbs -- fx reserves. do you think this will be enough? esty: it will depend entirely on the dollar. there's a weakness in the dollar we have seen in recent weeks. the dollar is heading off of some of the lows, so we will have to see if that holds. if we see much more dollar weakness, it is going to be tough to cap yuan strength. at the same time, it is difficult for the pboc to do much more without angering the americans too much. there are going to be some discussions on the trade talks in -- trade talks and tariffs, and they might not want to be intervening too much. but ultimately, i think this

might be more about the dollar than the yuan. annmarie: it's a good point because we did have those trade talks last week. when you say it is about the dollar, what is your outlook? what is the next catalyst for a leg up or down? esty: we have seen from a technical per spec, -- technical perspective, we have bounced off of technical lows, and the dollar held, but it didn't rebound so strongly. at the moment, with growth accelerating outside the u.s., you could see a little more dollar weakness for now. at the same time, i have trouble imagining a much weaker dollar when you think of higher kerry, better -- higher carry, better growth, more fiscal support, and generally the impetus continuing in the u.s. i think that is going to limit the downside to some extent, but probably more missing the short-term. annmarie: what i am hearing from you is that you are not a believer in what some are questioning to be peak u.s. economic growth. is it not the peak yet?

esty: i don't think it is the peak. i think we are going to see continued strong growth for a while. i think we are still reopening. a lot of measures are being removed starting in june and throughout the next couple of weeks. this isn't the case of everything is reopening yet. i think there's more room to go there. i also think we are in a different situation than in the past, where you can't just say it is pmi's -- say if pmi's start to fall from extremely high levels, that means equity markets aren't going to be able to look forward. i think growth numbers are going to stay very high for a while, and even if they start to fade, i think there's still plenty of fundamental support for the equity market, and it is going to continue to rally. annmarie: what is your expectations for this friday's nonfarm payrolls or -- payrolls report? are you expecting simply this,

potentially some supply and demand kinks before it really takes off? esty: that is a good question. i know markets focus so much on nonfarm payrolls, but they are the most revised figure in economics. from what you see, expectations are relatively up eight -- relatively upbeat. there have been whispers that credit may still be a little weaker before the full reopening takes hold a little bit at her -- a little better, and we could have catch-up from last month, so it feels look a bit of a coin toss at this point on the jobs market. but almost like the inflation numbers we saw friday, once you had one really surprising print the month before, the market seems to be more prepared to absorb whatever surprise comes its way. annmarie: what does this mean for the fed?

we know the fed is definitely focused on the labor market and making sure the recovery is an inclusive labor market. if we don't get a good print this friday, does that get rid of the idea that they are going to start talking about talking about papering? -- talking about papering -- talking about tapering? esty: i don't think so. they are starting to drop hints about talking about tapering. that will probably happen at the june meeting and will at least come up. i don't think they will announce anything before jackson hole in any case, and i don't think papering starts this year, but i am not sure they want to go backwards now that they have started to drop the hint about papering. -- about tapering. it gives them a little breathing remove the jobs report is weaker. the labor market is a little softer, and there's maybe less

pressure for them to talk about tapering. but what they want to avoid is a taper tantrum. yields have not moved in a couple of months despite inflation prints, despite jobs reports. the treasury market is very stable, and i think it will continue on this path with as much forward guidance as they are trying to get us. annmarie: it is a point you make that even though inflation is already priced income of the treasury market is trading absolutely sideways. you look at the 10 year yield, what could it take to put it above 2% and actually hold above that level?? esty: i'm not sure we are going to hold above that level, so i don't have an answer in the sense that if i don't think it is going to happen, i'm not waiting on a certain event. if we have continued much higher inflation trends, the market will start to react again. we could see more in terms of growth if the data doesn't start to stabilize at these levels and continues to grow even more.

we could have a bit of a reaction, but the fact that further about -- that for about two months, we have been in this range despite vaccination, despite higher inflation, for me it is an indication that we have seen the bulk of the move. we've come a long way from last august, and the market is pretty comfortable what this point, keeping in mind that we are probably going to see foreign holders pick up a bit again. annmarie: speaking of those who like to hold onto u.s. debt, i was surprised at how positive you are on japanese equities given that many in japan are still under a state of emergency dealing with covid-19. are these buying opportunities for you? esty: at this point it feels like we are really pricing a lot of negative news for japan. it should benefit from the reopening. it should benefit from an improving outlook.

the beginning of this year was a little worse than expected compared to a lot of other developed markets, so it has been a disappointment recently, but we do think there's going to be some catch-up once there is clarity around the olympics, once vaccination picks up a little bit, and they can ring down these clusters. we should sleep -- we should see improvements around asia as well. so it is more of a case of the bad news is priced in, and we should go back to pricing and the better news i had. annmarie: thank you for joining us this morning, esty dwek. let's get a recap of your first word news with laura wright. laura: the oecd has raised its global gdp forecast for this year, but the paris great -- the paris-based group warns that living standards for some people won't return to pre-pandemic levels for an extended period. the forecast calls for 5.8% growth in 2021, up 0.2% from the

last outlook. china will now allow couples to have a third child, an attempt to arrest the shrinking birth rate and an aging population that threatens the country's long-term economic prospects. for many years, china limited families to only have a single child. that policy was relaxed in 2016. president biden reportedly plans to build and expand legal immigration. according to open within your times -- according to "the new york times," it would be easier for foreigners to join their families in the u.s. and obtain work visas. it comes after an effort by former president trump to dismantle the immigration system. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm laura wright. this is bloomberg. annmarie: thanks so much. just ahead, we are going to get important policy perspective when it comes to green with you

commissioner for the environment -- with the eu commissioner for the environment. you are seeing a live shot of the tomb of the unknown soldier at arlington national cemetery, where president biden is participating in a wreath-laying ceremony. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ annmarie: live from new york, i'm annmarie hordern. good morning. this is "bloomberg markets." the eu parliament adopted a nonbinding resolution requiring companies to be subject to a single environmental liability regime rather than the existing 27 systems. for more, we are joined by virginijus sinkevicius, eu commissioner for the environment. do you think this is the right approach, just one regime for everyone to get in line? mr. sinkevicius: of course we welcome this initiative. we welcome the parliament's position.

[indiscernible] -- in line with the environmental permits. so environmental damage covers damage to lands, water, and biodiversity, and companies are liable to prevent damage given imminent threat and remediate any damage that the cause. that could mean restoring a damaged habitat, for instance. but i would like most distress at these and other provisions

are not primarily there to punish. their main goals and advantages are that they create a clear and level playing field for companies across the eu, with common rules, and that the key people and the environment safe together and for future generations, and they contribute to our common goal of 2030 and 2050. annmarie: what can the commission do in terms of imposing standardization, as well as broadening the types of incidents that account for environmental liability? mr. sinkevicius: we are currently working on a proposal to revise the environmental crimes directive that dates back to 2008, and it is the main instrument to protect the environment through criminal law . when companies break relevant rules, they can be liable to

criminal sanctions under this directive, and we recently reviewed it and found it is not fit for purpose anymore, so we are now looking into possible improvements. for instance, sanction types and levels, or very practical issues such as on law enforcement and statistical data collection, and determining more precisely what can constitute environmental crimes. so we are currently analyzing the results, and for our review process, the input and contributions are extremely important as part of the success, so after a first analysis, we can already see that a big majority of the respondents welcome the directives and agree that these directives need improvement. we are also currently conducting

targeted stakeholder consultations with law enforcement practitioners and networks, and a proposal to revise the directive is currently planned for the end of 2021. annmarie: last week we had major blows to oil companies, the biggest of big oil, but this came from a court, but also from shareholders when it came to exxon. do you expect this to be a partnership between government, the things that the commission is doing, plus shareholder activism? mr. sinkevicius: i think there is more and more activity as regards the green deal. if, for example, when we adopted the green deal one and a half years ago, we can't hide that there was some skepticism in the room. especially from the business community. but now, one year and a half in

that journey, business sees that it is an opportunity. secondly, they clearly see that more and more countries are getting on board, so having the first mover's advantage is something unique, and usually in history there are not so many chances. we work hard to get boardrooms on board as well so that companies and especially their management would be on board, understanding the scope of change and their role. annmarie: what about claims of esg adherence from corporations? are you worried about this so well -- this so-called greenwashing from corporations? mr. sinkevicius: on any issue, we always have extensive consultations, and some of them come with the position which fits their profile most. but i think that is the role of the commission, to play as an

honest broker to make sure we maintain and move forward with our goal, that we align member states and make sure that the eu legislation is in limited among them, and of course, that we have a society on board supporting us. usually we managed to find balanced incisions. i'm happy that we are speaking a graph -- speaking about the green deal. most of our initiatives are very well-known to the business community in advance. they do not come as a sort of surprise. annmarie: i want to ask you about the commission's zero pollution goal. obviously we are not going to have zero pollution, so what does that mean? mr. sinkevicius: it means we want to push down pollution so that it is not harmful to society, to people into

environments. it doesn't mean zero, but it means we push it down as much as it is not harmful anymore. our recently adopted zero pollution action plans have outlined very clearly that position. the action plan ties together all relevant policies to tackle and prevent pollution, addressing pollution affecting air, water and soil, as well as consumer products, and we have very concrete targets. first of all, a key target up to 2030, and these are two improve air quality, reducing deaths because of poor air quality, reducing waste, reducing micro plastics, improving soil quality by reducing pesticides.

improving the eu ecosystem and so on. so basically, by 2050, want to push the pollution level so that they do no harm anymore to the environment and to people. annmarie: how can you make sure that these things are actually implemented? how do you set these targets and make sure countries are adhering to it? mr. sinkevicius: of course, are targets are scientifically assessed that they could be realistically implemented on the ground. i agree that the challenges huge -- that the challenge is huge, but the urgency and the moral obligation to act is even greater. one in eight deaths in the eu is linked to environmental pollution, and 90% of these are

due to chronic diseases, most often cancer, and the most vulnerable groups are the most hardest hit. so we cannot compromise the health of people and the planet doing things the way we do now, and clean air cannot be a luxury . our ambition to help the health of citizens cannot be limited. already if you look at the legislation, improvement has been achieved between, for example, 2000 and 2017. the environmental economy in the eu outperformed the overall economy and created more jobs, so investing in clean and ring solutions also goes hand-in-hand with businesses and jobs. just to wrap it up, member states are going to have the unique chance. we have the recovery plan with the next generation eu, which is

where than $1.8 trillion to build back more sustainable with lower levels of pollution, and i think this plan is going to -- annmarie: we are going to leave it there. that is all the time we have yet but thank you so much for joining us. a massive undertaking. thank you so much, the eu commissioner for the environment. more next. this is bloomberg.

annmarie: 10:30 in new york. volumes are low. of course, it is memorial day, and the u.k. is having a spring bank holiday. across europe, markets are in the red. this is bloomberg.

♪ annmarie: good morning. live from new york, and annmarie

hordern -- from new york, i'm annmarie hordern. let's get a check of your first word news with laura wright. laura: in israel, prime minister benjamin netanyahu's opponents are moving closer to ousting him. one of his opponents is moving closer to forming a rival government. president biden plans to tell president putin that the u.s. will not stand by as russia abuses human rights. the summer olympics in tokyo faces a shortage of doctors because of the pandemic. organizers initially planned to have about 10,000 doctors, nurses and medical staff on standby for the games, but they've had to cut that to about 7000 due to ongoing outbreaks. global news 24 hours a day, on

air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm laura wright. this is bloomberg. annmarie: investors in china are paying little attention to the government crackdown on the currency, but instead on recovery in over-the-counter platforms that chinese crypto traders have used. for more on the outlook, we welcome meltem demirors, clint shares -- coin shares chief strategy officer's. are just brushing this off? meltem: uncertainty is the name of the game, and has been for the last seven years i have been in this industry. what we have seen over the last few weeks is some uncertainty across the board. in the macro environment, there's a sea of

across-the-board -- a sea of red across the board. the chair of the sec has indicated he wants to get more serious about regulating crypto exchanges. across the world, we are seeing regulators start to take note. we have to remember cryptocurrency at the start of this year was under $1 trillion market cap. it peaked at 2.6 trillion dollars collective market cap a few weeks ago. so regulators are really taking this asset class seriously, so i think we will continue to see uncertainty while the industry end investors and speculators alike wait to see how regulation shapes up. annmarie: we've also heard from a chorus of central bankers. today we heard from the top irish central bank chief. friday, in an exclusive interview with the bank of japan governor. how much of an impact to these bankers sound the alarm on

crypto make? meltem: it absolutely has an impact on sentiment. at coin shares, about 60% of our business is on the trading side, but one thing we are constantly looking at his sentiment because sentiment informs demand, and demand informs what takes place in the market. what we have seen over the last week is a big deleveraging event . we had the biggest daily wick in bitcoin's history. nearly 60% of that has been unwound over the last two weeks, so people are paying attention. i think right now, we see a lot of investors and traders taking a risk off approach, where they are trying to minimize their directional exposures until we see how these regulations are going to shape up. with that being said, again we

have gone through these cycles time and time again. we speak to regulators often, and i think the sentiment is regulators want to ensure compliance, regulatory compliance on behalf of the venues. they want to see market oversight. i think all regulators we have talked to also don't want to stifle this growing industry, so it will be interesting to see where that all shakes out. annmarie: i want to get to the price action. it has been a relatively quiet weekend, given the fact that the last few have been insane in terms of volatility. do you get a sense that we are on track for some calmness in the next few weeks ahead? meltem: well, i really appreciated this weekend's calm because i got some time to sleep. what we tend to see in bitcoin

is periods of extreme volatility mocked by period -- volatility marked by periods of calm and consolidation. if we look at the way the market is moving, sentiment informs demand, and demand informs the way the market moves. right now we don't see anything that is bullish or bearish on the sentiment side. i do think that the latest selloff in crypto has also been correlated with tax day in the u.s., as well as a broader selloff to the cost of the tech sector. across the board, investors are feeling skittish. we are seeing indications that the biden adminstration intends to continue printing more money, spending more money. so i have a hard time seeing an environment where do prices continue to stay fairly flat. there's nearly $3 trillion of dry powder on the sidelines in u.s. institutions alone. it is going to get deployed, and i can't help but believe some of

that will find its way into this market. annmarie: we do have president joe biden speaking now, giving the memorial day address. if you are a bloomberg terminal subscriber, you can go watch that now. before you go, i really want to ask you about what is going on with ether. goldman sachs says bitcoin could lose its ground to ether. is that the trajectory we are seeing right now? meltem: this is a conversation that happens often. we have obviously a lot of interest in bitcoin, by far the largest asset by market cap, around 50% market dominance. but we are seeing assets like ethereum and others emerging as popular with investors. i think what we are seeing right now is people are taking those profits and redeploying them into other assets where they feel there is reward that is

perhaps greater than it was in bitcoin. so ether did its own traveling this year. it went from around 1500 4500. -- from around $1500 to $4500. it has now settled around $2500. i think as investors settle, they tend to move out to seek reward elsewhere. i think we will continue to see that behavior, but for us, investing about bitcoin has changed. our outlook remains very strong on bitcoin, as well as on ether. we don't think it is in either/or. we can get is a bitcoin and ethereum narrative. annmarie: but if ethereum is getting more play and dominance, what would be the new ethereum? what is the next up-and-coming coin? meltem: i think there are a lot of coins that would bill

themselves as the next ethereum or bitcoin. i think we are seeing the question of availability and throughput. anytime we are designing a complex competition will system like a bitcoin network or ethereum network, we are making trade-offs. there are new protocols. -- there are new protocols we are invested in in building on at coinshares, but there are a number of others. i think there will be a world of many protocols. we are seeing a lot of interchange interlock ability -- interchange interoperability emerging. we are always keeping our eyes on what people are working on and the trades being made. annmarie: thank you so much for joining us on memorial day. that is coinshares' chief strategy officer. coming up, the oecd sees a k-shaped recovery. the interview with the sector

general is next. -- the secretary-general is next. this is bloomberg. ♪

annmarie: "bloomberg markets this is -- this is "bloomberg markets." i'm annmarie hordern. you are looking at the ends of a room -- the principal room. this is bloomberg. good morning. the oecd boosted its forecast for global growth this morning to five point 8% from 5.6%, but warning that the post-pandemic rebound will fuel inequality in a k-shaped recovery. bloomberg's matt miller spoke with the oecd secretary-general bout the pace of that recovery. take a listen. >> we feel it is pretty solid, pretty robust, but it depends crucially on whether we can keep up the rhythm of vaccination. it is vaccination, vaccination,

vaccination. that is going to define how robust the recovery is. the other question is is it going to be vaccination only for the wealthiest countries, or are we going to generalize it? we need a very important effort to be able to get vaccines into the arms of people in the living and emerging economies. without that, we won't be able to say that we have overcome the crisis. matt: the wealthiest countries are going to be looking at 60%, 70% coverage in the next weeks and months. they are well on the way to done. how long is it going to take developing nations to get to that kind of vaccination coverage?

angel: the answer is how smart and how generous the developed countries will be. if they are smart and generous, that means it is the same. being smart means being generous. and generous is smart. then we should fund mechanisms like covax. we should get only a fraction of the trillions that have been thrown at the virus. just a fraction of that will do the trick to vaccinate everybody in the developing world, with between $50 billion and $100 billion, whereas upwards of $16 trillion has been dedicated to fighting the virus, so only a fraction will do it.

matt: we know there's going to be an uneven recovery because of this discrepancy in the vaccination pace. in fact, some developing nations are going to take years to catch up to the levels the eu and the u.s. are looking at right now. what are the risks of such an uneven recovery? angel: the risk is now at become almost a cliche -- now it has become almost a cliche to say nobody a cliche to say nobody is safe until everybody is safe. and also because the enemy is mutating. the enemy has variants. it is changing its shape, its dna, and therefore, we should not allow it to do just that. we should try to beat it as early as possible. and by the way, it is a full's

dilemma to say that we should balance the economy, the lives and the livelihoods, the question of health and of the economy. clearly, the very obvious choice is to get the virus, kill the virus, beat the virus first, and then, because the virus is having immediate consequences on the economic side, on the social side, and those will stop the moment we stop the virus. annmarie: on held gloria -- angel gurria, the oecd secretary-general, speaking to bloomberg's matt miller earlier today. let's get a check on your business headlines with laura wright in london. laura: shares of chinese food delivery giant mage -- giant

meituan rose after better-than-expected sales. the chinese government has been carrying out an antitrust investigation. investors in china are paying little attention to the government's biggest crackdown on cryptocurrency trading since 2017. there's been a steady recovery on over-the-counter platforms that chinese crypto traders have used systemati -- used since systematic exchanges were banned. argentina will hold off on a $2.4 billion debt payment due monday. instead it will use a 60 day grace period to try to reach an agreement on the default. argentina wants to refinance its debt after reworking a $45 billion loan with the imf. that is the bloomberg business. i'm laura wright. annmarie: just ahead, opec and

its allies are seeing a tighter oil market ahead of tomorrow's meeting. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ annmarie: opec sees a deficit of more than 2 million barrels later this year. the group and its allies are meeting tomorrow. joining us with more is number correspondent javier blas. what is the group forecasting? javier: opec has a quite rosy view of the oil market going into the second half of the year , with a big draw happening over the summer, but equally in august and september. opec and saudi arabia are

increasing production. they increased production already in may. tomorrow, another big production increase is coming, and another when is scheduled for july. with all of that, opec still sees the market in deficit, so that is quite positive, and indicates that more oil is going to be needed in the second half of the year. that is going to be -- that is unclear if it is going to be oil coming from saudi arabia or from iran. annmarie: how are they going to deal with the iranian question if we do see agc poa resurgence, if we do have the meeting taking place in terms of the nuclear talks in vienna? javier: opec at the moment is indicating that there will be enough room for a rainy and oil coming into the market if there is a deal in negotiations between the world powers and iran that are ongoing in vienna, as you mentioned. so there is no problem at the moment on the balances opec sees

for iranian oil in the second half of the year. in any case, iran would not make one single big production increase. it would take time over a number of months when that production is going to come. the key question is if the demand weakens again, if the virus resurgent again, then it is more, catered for opec. opec is indicating that there is enough demand for iranian oil coming in the second half of the year. annmarie: it has been a wild year for these opec meetings. we go to the press conferences after can we expect any surprises tomorrow? i know as of the last few meetings, he still strikes his cautious tone because, similar to what we heard from the oecd secretary-general, the fact that there are parts of the world still grappling with a spiraling pandemic.

javier: he has been surprising in the last few meetings, but i would not expect any big surprises tomorrow. the pandemic is receding in the west, and we have seen demand coming in europe and particularly the united states, where driving this memorial day weekend has been quite intense. however, opec is going to be also looking at the situation in the east, india and particular, but also japan, malaysia, vietnam. we have seen an increase in covid cases, and that is going to worry opec. i think they carry on with the current plan of increasing production is expected in june and july, and we don't get a new price in these opec meetings. annmarie: brent is just about to

hit $70. christyan malek of jp morgan in the last hour sees it going up. this does not bode well for americans at the pump. at what point does opec come under a little but of criticism, especially given the inflation debate taking place across wall street? javier: i think these opec meetings are going to be quite interesting because every opec meeting was about the recovery in the oil market, the need for opec to be very vigilant, not adding too much production, or indeed, cutting production to rescue the oil market. i think that now, for the first time, opec is finding itself in a more happy place. prices are higher for many opec members. brent right now is that almost

$70. and yes, this opec meeting is going to try to shape how much inflation is not just oil. it is another of -- it is a number of other commodities. we have seen at the white house for the first time in many months a state mental on friday saying that president biden was looking at the oil market, watching gasoline prices, because memorial day, we have gasoline prices average about three dollars a gallon. that is the highest memorial day in more than six years. certainly anything above three dollars, we will see some political pressure from the united states to opec not to push prices too high. if those expectations from wall street are coming, i think we will hit $80 a barrel over the summer.

i think this will test saudi arabia to increase production faster. annmarie: form where i sit, the weather has been pretty dismal in new york. i wonder what it is like for a more sunny time on the east coast. thank you for joining us. just ahead, we are going to be speaking to dr. lucy mcbride of foxhall on the next priorities for dealing with the coronavirus right here in the united states of america. happy memorial. this is bloomberg. -- happy memorial day. this is bloomberg. ♪

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annmarie: good morning. it is 11:00 a.m. in new york on this memorial day, 4:00 p.m. in europe. i'm annmarie hordern. welcome to "bloomberg markets." the oecd raising its 2021 global growth forecast, but warning of an uneven global recovery ahead. we hear some of bloomberg's interview with secretary-general angela gurria. china takes its most visible step yet to curb yuan gains, forcing banks to hold more foreign currency on reserve the most in more than a decade. plus, oil advancing ahead of an opec+ policy meeting as markets repair to absorb a production increase. happy memorial day. if you are in the u.k., happy spring bank holiday. the stoxx 600 in europe down more than 0.3%. we do see across the screen the cac 40 and france down nearly 0.4%, and the dax down