from the central banks. they are keeping a lid on rates. >> since the pandemic, my argument is the fed's changing policy. >> what's the point in another person telling us the economy is strong? you got a look at what could go wrong here. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance," with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. jonathan ferro and lisa abramowitz and jon ferro. -- and tom keene. the american labor economy, matt miller in for john. -- jon. today is a day we finally get a sense of the american labor economy. lisa: right. adp report and jobless claims. the idea is how much momentum is behind the hiring surge we have seen. however not as big as previously expected. really today i think the theme will be inflation all around. wage inflation and price

inflation. tom: it will be price inflation on what we see and we all see it at the grocery store. that miller, are you seeing inflation in germany? matt: i have to be honest and tell you i don't really pay attention at the grocery store. the one thing i'm seeing here is pollution, and there was a great headline across the bloomberg terminal, an eu court ruled against germany that it has not done a good enough job keeping its cities clean. that was a really interesting -- that was really interesting, not a market moving issue, but fascinating. in terms of european stocks, we are watching the new relationship between biden and xi jinping, between the u.s. and china. we paid attention to every tiny little move donald trump made in terms of china and it could be resident biden is expanding the blacklist. tom: i would bring up today really what we must read around the world, a telegraph with a blistering essay on how the u.s. and united kingdom have done

better on vaccinations than china, a host of other issues as well, and also its of "bloomberg surveillance" guests quoted in that including george magnus at ubs now at oxford. i want to get back to the american economy. to me, the forces that yield just can't move higher. lisa: there's this idea that there is this faith in the federal reserve's prospects that they can get away from the low growth period we have seen at least temporarily, but we will go back. this is a transitory surge in inflation. i wonder much it is starting to change. the philadelphia fed coming out yesterday, patrick is starting to think about thinking about tapering. tom: bill dudley with us. william dudley, the former president of the u.s. fed. matt miller, this comes over to the soiree before the fed, which is the ecb. is madame lagarde talking taper talk? matt: they are. the ecb is talking taper talk. we have not heard from lagarde

yet, but her lieutenants are talking about it. the inflation here, even if it is lighter than the inflation there, germans are much more sensitive to it. so they really got to react if you start to see prices higher. in terms of food prices, that really is transitory. i think there is a you engage of food prices out today that shows we are at a decade high. but if you see gains in prices for things like homes, that pushes their hand. tom: to get you started on your day on radio on television, futures -10, dow futures, -71. it is 17.72. i will call it midrange over the last three to four days. as lisa mentioned the yield, we had a 1.5 eight about 12 trading hours ago. curve dynamics are about the same. maybe the real yield with a little bit in. oil, $72 on brent.

71.45 on brent. gold is not a story today. i'll are turning is what i would put it with some rain in be stability. lisa? lisa: we recognize the fed beige book. yesterday, it was really interesting. what it showed was this concern people have. the increase in cost presser, increase in labor market frictions are slowing growth. this is a tension that is really building. how much is inflation, especially transitory, perhaps bad inflation terms of prospects for global growth? we will get a sense on the employment friction at 8:00 a.m. a very noisy number we are expecting, a slight increase -- number, we are expecting a slight increase. get people on there like what can we actually extrapolate? we can extrapolate more from the 8:30 a.m. jobless claims. though that to has been noisy --

too has been noisy. i know you pay attention to this, tom, the pace of the decline in new initial claims. a log, the delta, the gamma. tom: there we go. i can't stand it. lisa: oh dear lord. the pace, thank you tom, the pace of the decline in the initial jobless claims is what people are looking for. they're expecting an acceleration in that's. this will also be interesting, possibly more so from the other two. at 10:00 a.m., i sent manufacturing figures. tom: well said. lisa: as well as services. services is what i'm focusing on. a lot of service providers have not been able to pass along the higher costs, but they have to pay to get people to come on board? they can't pass them along as easily to customers, because this is discretionary incomes. how much will this crimp the growth in services? tom: nicely done.

kailey leinz will be lecturing lisa abramowicz on calculus in a few hours. [laughter] let us move on, dr. bards, with a perspective of the glowing -- global foreign exchange. russia is out with an abrupt statement. it moves with dollar ruble and ruble stronger. russia plans to cut dollar holdings in wealth fund to zero. what is the symbolism of russia saying we don't want dollars? >> tom, you have always had a wonderful, historical perspective. comedy times over the last 20 years have you heard the exact same story? tom: i agree. >> whether it is reserves or otherwise. i think these are a lot of geopolitical statements that are meant to have an effect. i don't see it having any real effect. lisa: let's talk about what might have an effect on the dollar, what it could

potentially we can against. some are calling for a weaker dollar, yet are we seeing the strength in the euro regions? in the emerging markets regions that would justify that? dr. barth: no. in fact, that is why i think we have been saying all year that this idea of dollar downtrend is not likely to happen this year. when you think about it, we are still in a tremendously uncertain world, but one in which everyone is convinced we are seeing a concerted global rebound. it is clear we are. so people want to have a barbell approach to their asset allocation. they want to own safe assets because the world is still a scary, uncertain place, but they also want options on the growth. where better to get that than out of the u.s. where you have upsides to technology, upsides and growth, the rebound looks incredibly strong, but you also

have the clear safe haven. in that environment, you can see the dollar depreciate. matt: and let's not forget china just instructed its banks to buy more dollars and other forex holdings, right, when they raised their forex an years. at the same time, we see strength in the euro, strength and the pound at 122 and 142 respectively. to those two central banks go before the fed? dr. barth: i think it is unlikely, certainly in the case of the ecb. the bank of england has a long history of being one of the first movers out there. we don't anticipate it in this particular case, but i think we are getting a little ahead of ourselves to expect central-bank movement at this stage, as you were discussing earlier. they are all stilling -- still

trying to understand what these price signals are and how long transitory is. tom: does the currency markets indicate a specific rim ascendant? can you fold it away from a currency picture that shows a better picture and amsurg to come? dr. barth: i think you have to think distinctly about what e.m. means. e.m. is an area where we should see more differentiation. i think you're onto something there, when you highlight the pacific rim there. what is one of the key drivers of these price movements and indeed what we have been talking about with these transitory effects globall? -- globally? it has been supply chain and where has that been most prevalent? semiconductors. and that will benefit all of

e.m.. if that slows the global recovery, supply constraints and global recovery, that could be bad for the rest of e.m.. so yes within e.m. but not necessarily positive for the rest of e.m.. tom: let's do this again. marvin barth there. in matt miller, the lessons learned on stronger euro, and we really have not seen its, 1.22 to 1.23. where is the level on euro where europe screams? matt: europe screams around 1.25 is what we are hearing from the analysts and investors we talked to, but christine lagarde, you know this is her first or second year, we should say, in the seat. and the first time she confronted something like tapering. it will be interesting to see if she makes a decision on her own or if she is pushed into things by her lieutenant. tom: in the morning to get you

ready for all of this economics, i have to go to lisa abramowicz. i think it was yesterday or maybe the day before, you said -- lisa: it all blares together. tom: it all blares together -- blu -- blurrs together. tom: it does. lisa: going back to pre-2008 crisis, now there's a big question. the federal reserve is unwinding its holdings of corporate debt and corporate debt etf's and mast during the height of the pandemic. the concern here is, could this disrupt markets or does the success of this program highlight how the fed will get involved in the credit markets going forward? is this part of what is keeping spreads low, because the fed is the ultimate buyer and in a moment of distress they will step back in? tom: we will see. we have an eventful day, wednesday squeezed into thursday with adp at 8:15 then onto the

regular thursday claims, the jobs report. our conversation of the day, we have dean harvard from columbia as well. william dudley will join us with bloomberg opinion, the former president of the new york federal reserve system. bill dudley in a bit. stay with us on radio and on television. good morning. ♪ ritika: with the first word news -- >> with the first word news, i am karina mitchell. benjamin netanyahu is on the verge of coming to an end, he is about to be unseated by the unlikeliest government in history -- in their history. he has put together a diverse coalition to oust netanyahu. he would share power with naturalist and tolley bennett will be prime minister. russia is trying to reduce exposure to u.s. assets because of the threat of tension. it will eliminate the dollar from its wealth fund. it will shift to euro's, yuan,

and gold. it will not take place within the huge reserves, so it will be difficult to trace whether there is market impact. indiana global powers have adjourned talks on reviving iran's nuclear deal. a foreign policy official warns the u.s. and iran will have to make hard decisions. [indiscernible] president biden and the senates main negotiator on infrastructure plan to me tomorrow. the president's discussion yesterday did not result in a breakthrough. liberal democrats have been pushing the president to stop trying to get a compromise with republicans. president biden will amend a current bet on investments linked to china's military. the policy was challenged in court and left investors confused about the extent of its reach to subsidiary firms.

the treasury department will create a list of companies that could be penalized for china's defense and surveillance type sectors. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on "bloomberg quicktake," powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am karina mitchell. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> if it's appropriate for us to slowly, carefully, move back on

our purchases at the appropriate time, but one that is that is something to start discussing. you have to be careful in moving accommodation so we don't create any kinds of taper tantrum. that is why we need to communicate early, often what we going to do. tom: patrick harker, the former fed president, and the fed district of philadelphia has been an interesting of mix of manufacturing, a complexity of manufacturing going over easily a century. it is a certainly twist to fill it up -- a certain twist to philadelphia that bears listening. here's what were going to do is bring in lisa abramowicz and matt miller in for jonathan ferro. lisa wants to get to infrastructure and some of the mornings headlines. what does bite into about -- biden do about nine yahoo! and

the moment in israel? this is the new york times reporting moments ago that's netanyahu, on this dangerous left-wing government, what is the to do list for president biden? >> it definitely appears he treads carefully to start. he put out a statement congratulating who we presume will be the next prime minister, assuming this survives the vote of confidence, and they did not even mention netanyahu. it might have been a tough position, because he does not know what is going to happen with netanyahu. he's an opposition leader and how he will try to make his comeback. he doesn't want to get on anyone's wrong side when it comes to an ally. this puts biden and a difficult position lately. what his next step is a bit unclear, but clearly, the primary concern is, don't say too much, don't act too much,

assuming netanyahu is out of the picture or anything like that, as we have said initially -- as he has said the initial view is from biden. lisa: we keep toggling between the national and international opinion of joe biden. they are related, and it comes at a pivotal time when it comes to the infrastructure plan. yesterday, he met with senator capito and they negotiated behind closed doors. they agreed to continue talking tomorrow, and we got this headline from politico, saying the gop is considering a counter offer to the bill they proposed on infrastructure. do we have any sense of watch got accomplished yesterday, jack? jack: they put out a lot of details based on yesterday's meeting, but senator capito said she would have to brief the rest of the republicans on how it

went and what she talked about. they both said it was frank. that's an overused word in washington, but it went over an hour, so they got into details. they have not outlined exactly what needs to change in another counter offer from republicans, but we do know what's many of the issues are. what exactly is the infrastructure, how much new money as opposed to relying on unspent stimulus funds and that kind of thing, and of course the tax issue is a significant stumbling block. it will be clearly -- the next steps are senator capito needs to talk to the other republicans about what they could change and have support for to do another counter offer, then presumably, they will get into more details friday. lisa: patient's is not on ending according to psaki. jack: clearly the deadline is

soon. we heard that from pete buttigieg, we have heard it from jen psaki, and senator cap at -- capito acknowledged that as well. discussions have been about knowing, in the near future, by essentially now or at least the end of this week, whether there can be a deal. it will be up really to joe manchin to decide when to pull the plug on this if bipartisan talks are not going to work. a number of democrats have said we really need to find out whether this can work on a bipartisan level soon. it may be friday. if it does not work out friday, maybe they can keep bumping it along for a few more days, but it appears to be a matter of days is when the democrats could pull the plug on this, if there is not significant progress and something like an informal handshake deal. matt: bloomberg put out a great

scoop showing biden is going to clarify the trump blacklist on chinese companies with military relationships. the bloomberg intelligence analyst says that could move markets to cleaner, safer bonds. is biden, as xi gets more lovable, will biden get more hawkish than trump? jack: unclear if you will get more hawkish than trump. we will have to see what the details are on this move to clarify. i think what is seen as a big move from trump, because it is so far overarching to take an action that addresses any companies that are reportedly connected to the chinese military in any way. matt: clarify but maybe adding companies to the list, broadening out the list? jack: it definitely does not appear to be a move to entirely

pull back from what trump did. it is hard to say in a holistic way of biden will be more hawkish on china than trump. there is a partisan debate in washington right now where, if he pulls back too much on any sanctions, anything like that, [indiscernible] there's a lot of pressure to at least maintain a lot of the pressure on china, whether it is more hawkish or not maybe hard to calculate, but i would not anticipate that he pulls back very far from some of the trump agenda. tom: thank you so much, jack fitzpatrick, greatly appreciate it this morning. lisa, i look at the back and forth, and there is the international but always about the domestic. we have not set about -- enough about the jobs report tomorrow. i have never seen it coming off of the completely missed report

last time. lisa: and people are saying it is one data point, how much will it move the needle, but it is not, because the market and economy is opening up in a new way. people want to understand, are the frictions we are seeing keeping people out of the workforce continuing, or do they see -- do we see them add. -- them ebb. matt: and it is two data points because we are watching to see if there was another big missed class time. we are working to see if this confirms last reported not. lisa: it's true. it's going to be a really important report and comes at a time in a market. tom: stick with the calculus, you do that better. lisa: [laughter] tom: we are humbled by what happened 30 days ago, and that includes all the bloomberg economics, including carl riccadonna. we will pick it up with mike mckee two hours from now. with michael mckee, we will really begin to go through what we have learned in the last 30

days of the shock of the report. we start strong with glenn hubbard of columbia, a professor of economics, but far more than that, a great voice to fiscal and monetary policy. this is bloomberg, good morning. ♪

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tom: on radio and television, "bloomberg surveillance." welcome you all here this morning. lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro, and tom keene, and matt miller is sitting in for jonathan ferro in this hour. i want to get to amc with matt miller who gets it. i don't get it, full disclosure. futures at -13, the vix is 17.91. i will call it midrange on the last four days of gyration waiting for the economic data. to me, the major issues, the yield has not moved. we are not at a 1.61 or 1.63. we visited 1.5 812 hours ago. lisa: and we see people are confident that the fed has it right. we're waiting for what you pinpointed, confirmation that we are or are not based in the labor market and inflationary dynamic. tom: these are important data.

i talked to claims folks -- i'm told claims is being more informative than adp, but we will see at 8:15 and 8:30. the only reason miller is on the show is to talk about amc because none of us get it. what is the why here? jack: i'm an official member of wall street bets, and i signed up when these apes have the power to move markets. used to be you could look at a company fundamentally or look at the technicals. now, you have to look at reddit. when they put their mind to it and decide it is time to go to the moon, they really can do it and squeeze out these shorts. that is what they will tell you on the board. they will tell you a lot has to do with the gamma squeeze, but look, i think it is such a fascinating story. this also plays into the reopening theme. we will go to the movie theaters as often as we can. lisa: how much is this hedge funds manipulating reddit traders or going on reddit

boards and being the hedge fund money behind it? that's what a lot of people are speculating, no? jack: your guess on that is as good as mine. i have a much better view into wall street bets then i do into the innerworkings of hedge funds. tom: i look at this, and we will monitor this as careful as we can. romaine bostick giving us leadership here, but lisa, i look at amc and to your point on hedge funds, and i do not know which party to blame. if it is a short cover and gamma is accelerated, i wonder -- accelerated, i wonder what the moment is where it exhausts. lisa: it's difficult to figure this out when it is pinned to fundamentals. what is that stay about -- say about the stock market longer-term? tom: the discovery mechanism we have is that matthew miller lived next to an amc theater in

new york, and nine days in a robot popcorn. jack: 68th and broadway, i would go in there just for the popcorn. i thought, why don't i buy a share of amc because i heard you got free popcorn with it. apparently you only get one free popcorn. i thought it was unlimited. [laughter] tom: with that knowledge alone, you would never get into columbia. [laughter] glenn hubbard was a we would not let matt miller in with this a popcorn moment. the former dean of columbia business school joins us now, which many of our employees have attended. i must say, with his esteem to public service to america. glenn, we are so happy to have you and your bachelors degree in florida, knowing bill dudley will come along with his bachelor degree in florida. what is florida economics? i think it is usually misunderstood in the northeast of the esteemed history of florida economics. talk to us about central florida

as bill dudley would talk about the new college. >> i've had a great experience. i was in engineering student, but i had nothing but great teachers and great experiences and a wonderful part of the country. tom: in all my experience here, florida economics is a -- as a general statement is way underrated. glenn hubbard, you are not in inflation. i want you to describe for our audiences fear of inflation and what the true inflation needs to have wrong. glenn: it really gets back to supply and demand, tom. it is race between the two. we know the economy is reopening, and demand is certainly there, various economies. supply has been slower with bottlenecks into the labor market like unemployment benefits being too generous. on balance, i do not think the fed is necessarily wrong but they not managing risks.

i think there is more of a risk of an upside to inflation, and i think the fed would be wise to at least acknowledge the risk and to begin its tapering and discussions of tapering. you mention florida, and there is an explanation, -- there is an expression, fixing to do something. they need to stop fixing to do something and something. lisa: food prices are surging the most in more than a decade. glenn: transitory inflation would be simply that bottlenecks occur. if supply chain disruptions related to the pandemic, it takes a while for that to work through, relative prices can change as people's preferences change across goods. the concern is longer-term persistent inflation. i do get a little weary hearing the fed saying we have all of the tools. of course they have all of the tools. they had all the tools in 1960

too, and it got out of hand. i think you need to watch those pressures little carefully that are watched right now. lisa: we're just getting a word from political reporting that biden once $1 trillion in new spending in the infrastructure bill, countering some of the republican offers that include less than $300 billion in new spending. why do you think this is excessive given the fact that we have a lot of people unemployed and wages are a key concern, particularly on the lower wages spectrum. prof. hubbard: i do think it is excessive. of the size, -- of the size the biden plan is proposing. what biden proposed is really more social spending than infrastructure. i think the economy does need infrastructure and even size of that could be open for debate. what worries about me about his fiscal plans is if you add them all up, from the rescue plan,

jobs plan, family plan, they are very large, and largely unpaid for, despite the rhetoric. they are indeed a transformation, away from work and social spending. both of those things worry me and i think worry others. matt: there was a great rap video about 10 years ago that showed two verses in a boxing match. a decade on, seems like one won in a knockout. it seems they're not any austrians left. it seems they have become conservative and traditional mmt is the new eta thing. has there really been a change here? prof. hubbard: i'm not sure i use that video -- i use that video in my political class to talk about the pandemic.

a lot of what has -- is going to happen in the economy and interest in the economy is how we are going to adapt has we receive -- proceed from covid. the way to do that is on the ground. a person on the spot, of really figuring that out. i think we will need a mixture of both responses, and i don't think we want one without the other. prof. hubbard: we all love -- matt: we all of the economics lesson in bueller's day off where he talks about who do economics top-down stimulus. what we are looking at now in the big take from last year, which you are quoted in that story, is an attempt to stimulate the economy from the bottom up. is that a smart way to do it? prof. hubbard: i think we do need measures that maintain incomes. i think we are calling too much

stimulus. what the economy needs right now is a way to help people adapt. that is support for jobs of the future or businesses of the future, and that is different than the kinds of plans the president is proposing. fortunately, the opposition is not proposing much either, but this is really jobs in futures. tom: glenn, we are short on time. we are getting new pushback in congress on tax increases. can we move this forward without tax increases, or do you assume it has got to happen? prof. hubbard: it depends on what you mean by this. if you mean a modest infrastructure plan, if it is true infrastructure, you can borrow for much of that. if you mean the very large spending bill the president has proposed, you would need tax increases. unfortunately, what you have to have to pay for that would be something like a value added tax.

tax increases he is proposing a much smaller. tom: glenn hubbard, thank you much. matt miller, i saw, the first time in the history of surveillance, it is amazing how you do that, matt. if you look at hiking economics, it's an open prayer of conservatives. glenn hubbard is not in that set. he has enough respect for the need to get social policy forward. matt: sure, but he says there are not enough liberal -- neoliberal economists out there. it seems like the whole school of one to milton friedman has disappeared. tom: maybe on the generally should obey his, but to mask a point on that, i thought that was brilliant with dean hubbard. i look at this and it is an mmt moment. how do we distract ourselves from this? lisa: and what are the consequences? if we don't get inflation on the same level, is there a

consequence where people say basically print money and all of a sudden prices go through the roof. is that really what's happening? what glenn hubbard was talking about, supply chain disruption. he was not about m2 supply. tom: i look at this, and the whole thing, i want to emphasize his right now, he comes out of the gdp. would you agree with me that what has happened in the last 14 days on this epic tome is we have gone from gdp often a cliff in 2021 to some form of more gradual slowdown in economic growth? lisa: i think people expect a slow down. i think the uncertainty remains, which talks to the stupor in markets. this question of affairs bueller's day off as matt miller was talking about, it is really pressing right now. in the terms of people taking a look and saying it has not worked. tom: lisa, this is embarrassing. it is off the rails. [laughter] lisa: bueller, bueller.

tom: i don't even know if we spelled it right. lisa: i'm sure we didn't. matt: hi act is not spelled correctly. [laughter] tom: that's how big a deal it is. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ karina: with the first word news, i'm karina mitchell. it arose again in free-market training after almost doubling yesterday. amc now has a market value of more than $30 billion, more than at least half of the companies in the s&p 500. economies were blindsided by the april jobs are poor and are ready for any number of surprises in the may survey tomorrow. gains range from 335,000 to one million. forecasters say models cannot account for the frictions and

reopening of the economy. oil is rising today after closing at the highest since october 2018. futures in new york rose $69 a barrel and brent closed in on $72 per barrel. there's more optimism about recovery and demand. american poll -- petroleum industry says it stockpile the most in a month. global food prices have risen to their highest level in a decade. climb for 12 straight month in may. it's hurting crops from corn to coffee, plus vegetable oil production growth has slowed in southeast asia. apple's ceo says in early ceo, employees should be returning to offices for at least three days per week. in a memo obtained by bloomberg news, he says staff should be in their offices on mondays, tuesdays, and thursdays at a minimum. apple will evaluate the new work schedule next year. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on "bloomberg quicktake," powered by more than

2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am karina mitchell. this is bloomberg. ♪

pres. biden: america is headed into the summer dramatically different from last year's summer.

a summer of freedom, a summer of joy, a summer get-togethers and celebrations. an all-american summer that this country deserves after a long, locked -- long, long dark winter we all endured. tom: extraordinary comments from pharmacology and medicine in the united states of america. we are scrupulous about our corrections. i think president biden would like us to do that. matt miller, a spelling error made by me, a timeout for tom keene. then the idea, matt, seriously, as you mentioned the legacy has drifted away, where is the bun to spank on this. do they understand modern mmt? prof. hubbard: obviously -- matt: obviously they would not agree with mmt in full, but it is agree -- it is interesting to see them pull to

the left. this last week, he was saying too much fiscal stimulus is going to make their goal of price stability more difficult, but he also said is it in -- it is important not to pull back or unwind fiscal aid prematurely. tom: it is fascinating. we make light about it, but it is whispers of my childhood, when you think about what mr. miller said earlier, the dominance of chicago and the austrian school personified. i want to make another error quickly here, it was gonna mirador who said i will not -- lisa: how embarrassing. [laughter] tom: it was a complete failure on my part, which shows the nerd level. lisa: of all of us. tom: jennifer news oh, johns hopkins center for security joins us. i was talking about this last night, at the dining room table. we completely have missed sold triumph of american virology,

american microbiology, and our pharmaceutical business. it is stunning, as president biden said, what has occurred. >> i agree. we are living a much different life now than a year ago. not just things to finance in the last year but thanks to more than a decade, several decades of finance. this is why we invest, why we sustain, because one day it will be necessary. it will be important. lisa: doctor, can we codify the scientific advancement in social passport, a vaccine passport that people can use, can take to go places and say i'm not at risk of getting covid or high risk of distributing it either? >> is a tricky question. i know people are eager to do that because we are eager to get back to normal. for those of us that have done our part, we went out and got vaccinated and we feel like we should be entitled to gain access to places. i fully expect private businesses will require vaccine

proof, provided their governors do not prevent them from doing that. at some point, they will start requiring vaccine proof to allow people to go to concerts and things like that. it is a bit tricky because there are people who are hesitant, and there has -- and their hesitancy is not without reason. this is a new vaccine and they probably don't have the luxury of sitting all day to think about these things, so they need to be convinced of the benefits of vaccination. i worry about prematurely rolling those things out before we have had a fair chance at winning the hearts and minds of people and showing them why the vaccines are so liberating and hopefully tools they will willingly accept. we are more in favor of carrots and sticks, so i expect we will be there at some point, but i worry rolling them out too quickly could create a culture war, which will entrench people in their opposition to it. lisa: are you sing the main reason for the main argument

against vaccine passports is an emotional one, that you need to cater to the way people feel about the vaccines first and deal with the mandates later? jennifer: i do not think it is an emotional one. first of all, it's not really about emotions, it is also just that we are not fully approved a number of vaccines. i expect that will come soon, but there still needs to be an educational component. also, some access issues. we know many of the people who have not yet been vaccinated, it is not because they don't want to but they have not been able to, in part because it is harder for them to get. they may not have time off from work and there may not be as many options of where people live, so we all have to be worried about what we restrict people from doing if they have not been vaccinated and whether that is worth it in the long run. i worry that if we create a culture war or rule these things

out too quickly, we could dampen enthusiasm for vaccines. matt: what danger to the anti-'s present? if you end up in a situation -- anti-vaccine is present? if you end up in a situation, is that threatened by a minority -- is the majority threatened by a minority that refuses to get the shot. jennifer: so far, they are dangerous to themselves. because they risk getting vaccinated. i'm so interested in reaching those folks and convincing them of the benefits of the vaccines. down the road, we worry about as long as the virus continues to circulate at high levels, there's the potential for mutations that could overcome vaccines. so far, we have not seen that. in the united states at least, that is less of my concern because our case numbers are not falling. my main concern is to protect people so we do not see

additional loss-of-life or schools close and places where schools have been open. it is about getting back to normal. i'm not giving up on people. i think we can reach them. tom: jennifer nuzzo, greatly appreciated. that was great optimism about the summer. onto markets. -21 on futures, dow futures at -1.49. i will call it a blended .5 percent move down. the vix is to 18.39 not 18.50. i would suggest it is a market waiting for data. lisa: and also waiting for guidance from the federal reserve. the fact you're getting more hawkish discussions, and it is amazing to call this hawkish, john would say there are no hawkish left, stop calling it that. he's right. patrick came on yesterday and is thinking about tapering the $120 billion of purchases, i think it is giving some people pause. is there momentum behind this feeling on the federal reserve as price pressures continue to

mount across the world? tom: not going to react to the data but come on, we will see jobs tomorrow, wage inflation, but it is really from a social aspect, the data we see, even in adp, from the bottom three deciles of the american economy, they are part of the discussion. lisa: and what are the metrics the metrics that that are looking at? their employment metrics have changed. it is not just a headline number to your point. the idea is inclusion. how do you get those people who have been left out of the recovery and hit hardest in the downturn, how do you get them in? tom: i'm in tears. matt miller is leaving us and it is crushing to know that. matt miller has a book coming out next year, and we will see what that is. lisa: he needs to reenact. anyone? matt: i'll be back. lisa: anyone? matt: the funny thing is, in the

scene, ben stein is dissing the curve. tom: i have not seen this. lisa: you haven't seen ferris bueller's day off? tom: matt miller, think you so much. julian emanuel coming up on the equity markets. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> ben carson julie keeping a lid on rate -- central banks are essentially keeping a lid on rates. >> we've got to look at what could possibly go wrong here. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. on radio, on television, a simulcast on a day of interesting economics, market action. romaine bostick info jonathan ferro on radio and tv. i said to ferro, you're gone. we've got to get romaine in. are you long amc? why is it up again t