♪ >> this a lot of question about the outlook for the u.s. economy. >> we have seen a rebound, and it is telling you we are in a strong world economy. >> we are waiting for the central banks. they are essentially keeping a lid on rates. >> since the pandemic, my argument is that the fed is changing policy. >> we've got to look at what could possibly go wrong here. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. lisa: good morning, everyone. seeing around corners of a mysterious labor market. jon off today.

romaine bostick part of the "surveillance family," joining us -- the "surveillance" family, joining us this morning. we've got to begin on the markets. the fact that stocks seem to be deteriorating a have the open. the nasdaq lower by more than 1%. tom: you are absolutely right. futures were at -20. it has really deteriorated in the last hour. -32 s&p futures, dow down to 42,000. we do dow level for jon ferro. trying to get to a vix at 20. can you fold in the additional decline in equities to amc, or is that too bold a statement? romaine: that is a little bit too bold. emc is down about 4%, 5% in the premarket. nasdaq futures are down pretty hard. tom: we don't do that. romaine: well, for our viewers here, as we point you to the

afternoon, it is a lot of the tech names. it is not just the microsofts and apples dragging down these markets. it is the second tier names. your chewys, roblox, other comedies. it's not lose sight of the fact that we are awaiting a couple big cannot data points over the next couple of days. lisa: that's exact where i wanted to go. tom: do that. lisa: we have seen this again and again, data points that seem to indicate one thing area for example, if stronger labor market, should indicate a positive move. we have seen positive news and negative news that has to do with the fed reaction function. what is driving popular markets right now? tom: jon ferro has been very good at this the last couple days because he's looking at buying the rumor, selling the news, and saying the equity market expects forward at each and every case, yet so much of

the economic data is lagging. trade data is two months, three months behind, but even what we get is something in the past versus the market looking to the end of the year. romaine: keep in mind, you have a market early trying to assess this, recovery, and while the economy is certainly in a good place, it has not quite gotten back to pre-covid crisis here. you have everyone coming out of their homes and traveling again. there's a lot of expectation that you are going to see a spike over the next couple of months, that is what you're going to see. you're talking about 4066 or so to about 4200 on the s&p 500. that is the range we have been in since mid april. the market has gone nowhere on

an aggregate basis. lisa: i wonder how much this is going to affect the direction of things as people remain in a sea of uncertainty. tom: i think you are dead on in the ocean of uncertainty we are on right now. what that means is your allocation, your intelligence of what to do, to be diversified, to be less diversified, lee ferridge joins us right now of state street global. what is the multi-asset strategy at your shop? are you waiting for the debris to come in? lee: we are fully invested. you make the point about the uncertainty, and you are absently right. when there's an ocean of uncertainty, maybe a pond, i don't know, but it is a water body of uncertainty. [laughter] lisa: killing it. lee: the point you made about the historical data is really

interesting because it is not just that at the moment. at the moment, the point is the data we are getting is about the reopening, right? it is about the pace of the reopening. it is about the economy coming back to life. it is not telling us anything about the endpoint. it is not telling us anything about the medium-term economy. where do we get to in terms of employment? where's the new natural state? what does work from home mean for employment levels? how many businesses are closed down during the pandemic that aren't coming back? all of the data we are getting now is about the reopening, and that is why it is so wild, we get big misses and big numbers. if you were looking into 2022, data now is really telling us not very much about that at all. that is why markets are in this holding pattern, because we are in this interim stage of reopening, but really, what we want to focus on now, and we have priced in the reopening for this year, but we want to know

about is what the economy looks like in the post-covid world, and we don't get any information on that at the moment. lisa: so we get data that doesn't matter. what matters when it comes to changing your view of how to invest? lee: anything that would change the medium-term outlook. for me, the biggest risk still there is some sort of variant that is vaccine resistant, that pulls everything back into where we were. we are all praying that doesn't happen, but that is a risk for me. aside from that, it does come back to the fed. it does come back to policy. but here again, we have the problem. here again we have the holding pattern we are in because the fed don't know what the world looks like post-pandemic either. this is why they are looking through inflation saying it is transitory. this is why rates are where they are and they are still printing money even though we are going to get a 6.5% growth rate this year, because they don't know either. this is why we are stuck in this holding pattern.

the default at the moment is as high prices are going to go up. we are getting $120 billion a month from the fed. other central banks are doing qe. rates are at zero. so the default is the market will drift higher. this is why we are up on the s&p so far this year. this is going to continue, but it is going to get harder and harder from here. romaine: the key word you used is drift. there's a lot of concern, the idea that people need to at least protect themselves to the downside. you are a multi-asset strategist and a multi-asset world where everything is at or near record highs. how do you diversify in an environment like this, where you are not quite sure of what the upside is, but you can be pretty clear that there is a potential for downside? lee: it is really tough, but the problem you have is this phone mode trade, the fear of myth -- this fomo trade, the fear of missing out. if you are sitting in cash, you're not looking too clever.

i mean, it is really hard to protect yourself aggressively when the fed is still doing qe and markets drift higher. 12% in the first five months of the year, that is pretty good and a zero interest rate world. the fact is i still like treasuries here. i would be putting some cash in treasuries at 1.60% in the 10 year. i don't think yields are going to go anywhere, but you have to have some sort of protection. i think my default is the fed is not going to change anything anytime soon. they are not going to change anything quickly. so despite never bad news we get, you're going to get the buy on dips mentality. it's why we are pro-risk at the moment. yes, we want some risk protection, but you can't spend too much on it because until the fed really changes, markets are going to go higher. lisa: is there a broader lesson in terms of reevaluating risk

going forward, given the fed's reaction function of going even into corporate credit? yes, they are unwinding the $14 billion pool of corporate debt that they amassed during the pandemic. markets aren't reacting at all. does it signify that this is a tool in their toolbox that they will continue to deploy in times of stress? lee: absolutely. this has been a tool in the toolbox since the financial crisis. talked ed nausea him before the pandemic about how we had this extremely slow economic recovery from the financial crisis. we had the worst recovery from a recession we have ever seen. we had the best recovery in terms of asset markets we have ever seen. he fed balance sheet has gone from $1 trillion in 2008 to nearly $8 trillion now. global central bank's of gone from about $3 trillion to $25 trillion. so this is a tool. but the only thing that will stop them doing this, the only constraint we have in this world of unconstrained policy, this is why everyone is so worried about

it because the thing that will stop it is inflation. tom: thank you so much. greatly appreciate that this morning. talking about unconstrained, it is something we have been following for 3, 4, 5 days. turkish lira flat out unravels. there's no other way to put it. 8.68, really reaching up to that spike up to 8.80 we saw a few days ago. lisa: right now we are seeing a credibility issue. a central banks that is looking to cut rates even though that has never been used as a way to curb inflation, so you have a turkish lira that is running away and losing value. it raises really a question of how they are going to move forward, how they are going to stabilize this without amassing more dollars. romaine: cutting rates and a 17% inflationary environment, more importantly, it is about confidence in policy overall. tom: we need to set up for what we've got over the next 17

minutes, maybe 19 minutes, and that is the adp report into claims. i have no clue which is more important. uncle mckee will join us here. as i've said before, the claims chart is the most elegant chart i have in my selection of charts , the 42,000 charts i have at bloomberg. lisa: we are looking for a bigger acceleration down in terms of the number of people filing for unemployment claims, even though it has come down a lot and you are expecting a sub 400,000 print in about a half an hour. there is still a huge number of people, still massive compared to precrisis levels, and you do wonder why there are still so many people coming out of the labor market when you've got everyone saying they've got labor market shortages. tom: the vix, 19.22. got down to a 16 handle on the good news, and backed up to about may 25 on vix. coming up, michael mckee has

entered to be her medically sealed "surveillance" room on adp come on claims. the only one in the universe who gets it, michael mckee on total vector productivity. stay with us. ♪ karina: with the first word news, i'm karina mitchell. amc is now falling in premarket trading after announcing plans to sell up to 11.5 million shares. the stock almost doubled yesterday and gained another 24% today before the announcement. a frenzied rally in amc has pushed shares into money-losing stocks up almost 3000% this year. benjamin netanyahu's record long grip on israeli politics is on the verge of coming to an end. he's about to be unseated by the unlikeliest government in the country's history. a diverse coalition will unseat

netanyahu. a centrist will share power with a nationalist, who would become netanyahu's immediate replace and has prime minister. russia and china reduce exposure to u.s. assets because of the threat of sanctions. it will eliminate the dollar from its $119 billion wealth fund, instead shifting to euros, yuan, and gold. the transfer will take place within the russian central bank's huge reserves, so it will be difficult to trace whether there is a market impact. president biden will amend a current ban on investments in companies linked to china's military. the trump era policy was challenged in court. that left investors confused about its reach. companies could be penalized for their ties to china's defense and surveillance sectors. beijing has given jack ma's ant group to go ahead to transition

to become a financial old and company. it will be regulated more like a bank. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm karina mitchell. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: not much moving the market off of important economic data.

we've got a special treat. we will do adp now with michael mckee, but then jump into a broader discussion on where we are to the jobs report tomorrow. mike mckee is in charge of economics and red sox baseball for "bloomberg surveillance." i'm going to see a good number, right? wrong? michael: better news on adp than i do on the red sox. almost one million jobs created during the month of may, according to the automatic data processing people. 333,000 is small, 338,000 in medium, so pretty evenly divided. the real surprise, the real big number that catches your attention is 440,000 jobs in the leisure and hospitality space. last month, the economy restored 331,000, so even more people, waiters, waitresses, etc. coming back to workf may, according to adp.

in goods producing, 65,000 construction workers, and 52,000 manufacturing, so some really good numbers for adp. the forecast for the jobs report tomorrow is for 650,000. we will see if that moves at all on the back of this strong adp report. tom: i want to open this up as we go to claims coming up. let's start with basic ideas. which is more important, claims in 12 minutes or what we see right now in adp? michael: they are both about the same in that claims doesn't tell us a whole lot about what is going to happen tomorrow in a broader trend since -- tomorrow other than that in a broader trend sense. adp, while it is a hiring index, doesn't always correlate well with the u.s. numbers. adp last month, 645 thousand, where we only had 266,000, according to the government payroll numbers. lisa: that mexica's for why we

care at all for these numbers. what do these numbers tell us, if they don't necessarily correlate to the overall official numbers that really do move markets? michael: we have always said about adp that traders have got to trade, and it gives them something to trade on that is related to the payrolls report, which everybody trades on. so that drives some of the interest. in general, you look at it because it is a sort of coincident indicator that gives you an idea of the direction of hiring, not necessarily of the magnitude. of course, it is really hard to get the magnitude right these days given the enormous disruption. i was feeling sorry for tom and myself, people who make charts, because the y-axis is all messed up in march and april of last year. it is hard to show things on charts these days. lisa: i know, this is a little violin for people on radio that i am playing right now. there is a question going forward of what we are gleaning from these coincidental perhaps data points, what we are getting

a sense of in terms of momentum. are we getting any clues as to what is causing those frictions labor markets, or whether those are actually abating? michael: we have no answers or get a lot of theories. one is that it is taking people a while to come off of the sidelines because maybe they are not vaccinated yet or they are worried about other people who are not vaccinated yet, particularly in those services jobs, which are very customer facing. also, the story about whether or not, with schools still in hybrid, whether we saw a lot of women out of the labor force because they had to stay home with their kids. more schools opened up during the month. we will see if that made a difference in may. then the old question about unemployment benefits, whether they are keeping people at home. no definitive answers, but those are the theories at this point. romaine: when we look at that, how do we have to factor in some of the supply-side constraint? is that going to be a factor in the actual data we get tomorrow?

michael: that's what everyone wants to see. did enough people come back into the labor force? you look at the population ratio, that is what the fed is following even more than the unemployment numbers that everyone focuses on because it tells you how any people who were working don't have jobs now , either because they are not in the labor force, not looking for work, or they are waiting to get rehired somehow. that number is still well below where it was prior to the pandemic, so we are trying to get a feel for how fast people will come back into the labor force, which will give the fed a much key review of what the potential is. romaine: when you look at the beige book report yesterday, there is a lot of anecdotal evidence about the shortages in the market. there was also a lot of anecdotal evidence about wage pressures. are we going to start to see a little bit more meaningful jump in wages in the official jobs report? michael: that is the $64 trillion question.

the problem we have is that the data are all really noisy right now. the atlanta fed puts out a wage tracker, and it shows high skill, low skill, and medium skill job wages, and they chart it from a year earlier, and the change shows that basically, the people who got the biggest raises, who are making the most money, are the people at the lower end of the scale because basically, they were off the payrolls, so just coming back on helps them. we don't see a real indication yet of major changes across the spectrum in terms of pay. until we do, the fed is not really going to worry about that too much. tom: i want you to wander into the end of the year. all central banks delay. bill dudley alluded to this in his really important essay today. the easy way out is for chairman powell to take the jobs report tomorrow into june 16, and then just wait for more data. that's got to be by far and away his easiest path.

michael: it is also the strategic path for them at this point. tom: i agree. that is important. that's different. michael: they don't want a taper tantrum, so we will probably see remarks that they started talking about a plan. a be the staff presented them with a plan or some possible options. once they get through that, they go into the july meeting and talks are more around the data they see. tom: we are looking at november 3. that's say they want to avoid december 15 and the end of the year. we could be playing this game until november 3. michael: it is going to be a staring contest between the markets in the fed, especially when we get inflation data that is going to continue to show inflation running well north of 3% for quite some time. tom: you are going to stay around for claims, right? michael: i'm employed at the moment, so. [laughter] tom: let's go over the market that we see here. the answer is i've got an under 1.6 per -- under 1.60% 10 year

yield. lisa: you saw a little tick higher in yield. tom: it is just another data point that as mckee correctly stated, we need more data. lisa: i think wages is a key one, especially as we talk about food prices increasing, wage prices increasing. how much is that prompting individuals to demand higher pay because they are also expecting prices to continue to rise? you do wonder how much this is going to feed into some of the dynamics going forward. romaine: if you get that wage growth, all of the fears about inflation here, if wage growth does keep pace, that sort of blunts the impact of that a little bit and gives the fed a little bit more of a runway with regards to whatever it plans to do with normalization. lisa: tom, did you read the beige book from front to back? tom: we used to argue about this. lisa: in st. louis, a restaurant group held a job fair to fill positions, and only 12

applicants showed up. romaine: and they all got hired? lisa:lisa: 100 obit -- lisa: 100 openings. tom: amc $57, down a million percent. good morning. mike mckee next. ♪

tom: futures at -30, dow futures -192. in the midst of adp and now claims, on-the-job state tomorrow. here is michael mckee. michael: let's see what we've got. we are waiting for the data from the labor department. we are throwing 385,000 jobless claims. the first sub 400,000 number we have had since the pandemic began. it is good news overall for the economy. people are starting to move out of the job help numbers. let me look quickly. the one number i want to keep following is the total number of people still getting benefits. that is 15,000,400 for the 5000

-- 15,435,000. these are the number of people still getting benefits who are still available to go back into the labor force. people who are employed by companies, who are self-employed but out of work at the moment. that is as of may 15. that is still the week of the jobs report. as of two weeks ago, still a lot of people out of work. nonfarm productivity comes in at 5.4%. no change from the initial number. unit labor cost of 1.7%. that is significantly higher than the negative 3% reported. it may have something to do with the fact that we are seeing employers pay more to workers, even if not in wages come in bonuses or something as they try to fill their ranks. lisa: market reaction, nothing major.

the 10-year gilts continues to rise, nearly 1.61%. the 10 year yield continues to rise -- the 10 year yield continues to rise, nearly 1.61%. this is a less bad numbers, yet why are there still 386,000 individuals filing for unemployment when companies are talking about labor market shortages? michael: there will always be people out of work. we never got below 200,000 before the pandemic and even that was considered low. there is a job churn as companies go in and out of business. you may see companies who try to reopen and couldn't. let me quickly mention this. when you have factory shutdowns like we did for the autoworkers because they cannot get parts, those people are generally eligible for benefits. that may be playing into it as

well. tom: will this move the data for tomorrow? we are just under 55,000 for tomorrow, would you expect economists to adjust as we go into tomorrow? michael: i expect we will have some of that at 10:00 tomorrow. he will be watching bloomberg and we will have the report on ism. that will give some idea if there's a confirmation of the number of people hired for service jobs in the adp report. tom: as lisa mentioned, the yield out to 1.51%. romaine bostick here for jon ferro. we welcome all of you on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television. ian lincoln writes a what -- ia n lyngen writes a widely read note.

within your precision right now, what matters within fixed income? ian: i think that in this moment, as a market, we are looking beyond the employment landscape and looking beyond the interim or transitory data on the inflation side and we are starting to contemplate what the new economy looks like reopened as we get past this summer into labor day and beyond. what does the work from home environment translate into after-the-fact? what does that mean for frontline service sector firms? i suspect one of the reason employers are having trouble getting people back into the front service sector jobs has to do with the fact we are still to some extent in the midst of the pandemic. we have not reached herd immunity although significant progress has been made, and there a lot of uncertainties that remain in terms of how long certain jobs are going to be

available and why people might want to stay on the sidelines. lisa: we got the university of michigan consumer sentiment survey that showed individuals in the united states expect inflation to be at around 3% over the next five to 10 years. square that with a 1.61% 10 year treasury yield. why the disconnect? ian: part of it has to do with the notion that consumer inflation expectations do tend to lack the reality of what we are seeing. people take the existing trajectory and map it forward. that does not always come to fruition. the other aspect we need to keep in mind is treasuries are a global asset. rather than being dictated by u.s. growth and inflation fundamentals, we look overseas, where we are setting the valuations for 10 year and 30 year rates. what we are really seeing is the

expectation for what is going to happen in europe, what is going to happen in japan, what is going to happen in other aspects of the global economy, and that justifies a lower yield for treasuries because to a large extent they continue to function as a flight to quality. lisa: how high could treasury yields go given the fact you are not seeing a huge resurgence globally in terms of the economy and rates. ian: this year i think the 1.70 7% level in 10 year yields will represent the upper bound, at least through labor day, if not into the beginning of 2022. part of that is based on the fact that all of the bearish inputs have come to fruition thus far. assuming we have another strong nonfarm payrolls print tomorrow, we have the fed already laying the groundwork for tapering. we have transitory inflation

back in the system. we have unemployment claims below 400,000. all of this suggests the 10-year gilts should be north of 2% -- 10 year yields should be north of 2% if they were ever going to get there. that suggests we will see much more significant progress on the global recovery and the global reflation narrative before we see that degree of upward pressure on u.s. rates. romaine: talk a little bit more about the feds hand in this and the potential timetable investors should look to. when we talk about that taper, what are we talking about in terms of dollar value per meeting and how long does it take to get to the end of that tapering where we can start talking about a normalization of rates themselves? ian: the consensus currently holds we will get proverbial trial balloons floated at the jackson hole conference in august, with an official announcement sometime in the fourth quarter and then

translated through to actual qe tapering in the first quarter of 2022. assuming the prior timeline holds, that implies we have somewhere between nine to 12 months of tapering, which puts the first lift off rate hike realistically on the table sometime at the end of 2020 or the middle of 2022 -- 2022 or the middle of 2023. all caution that the market has a very long history of bringing forward the lift off rate hike's long before they come to fruition. we are happy to pricing that risk. when it does not come to fruition, simply roll the expectations forward on a quarterly basis. we might find ourselves in a situation where tapering ultimately does not give us much in terms of a price response but pushes forward those who adopt rate hike expectations.

romaine: if we assume 1.77 does turn out to be a realistic observation, are we going to see a widening of the gap between what we are seeing with regards to real rates and nominal rates, or is what we are seeing today going to persist as well? ian: it will be very hard for breakevens to increase if the market continues to believe in the transitory narrative. it is once the fed backs away from that explanation of upward pressure on consumer inflation, or the numbers come back in line that we will see a new equilibrium. all else being equal, i am the side of the fed, which assumes these near-term prints will be transitory. which again will narrow that spread and put it back into more traditional environments. tom: thank you so much.

the yield is up to 1.61. right now 1.60. we will see how people report it and much more how they reframe on jobs tomorrow. the tape a little bit better. i guess i could say the cape -- the tape got a bit of a bid. romaine: down about .6% on s&p futures. still seeing softness. at least in terms of the broader market we see volumes relatively light. this is a market still in search of a direction and in search of more certainty about some of the things ian was talking about. tom: amc with the moonshot earlier. romaine: we are back to amc. tom: it is a set of lower lows. lower highs, lower lows. on a daily basis. what is the ramification, what is your experience when it

breaks some form of support? romaine: keep in mind used up a lot of short interest. if it does break that support you will see a snowball effect downward similar to the snowball effect you saw upward, not saying it will drop 50% the way it rose 100%, but you will see a steep decline. not only amc down but a lot of the other retail favorite stocks, the meme stocks are also significantly lower as well premarket. tom: lisa, you love how we are doing the stock stuffer romaine. lisa: i think the amc story is so fascinating. is it really everybody's grandmother getting on reddit? i know your barber is really into it. is that really what is creating these kinds of volumes and valuations? we'll be discussing that on "the open" and also discussing the right picture.

matt hornbach will be joining us to talk all about that as we do carry the conversation over to the next hour. tom keene will be on radio. from new york, this is "bloomberg surveillance." karina: in vienna, global powers have adjourned on reviving the iran nuclear deal. negotiators will return next week. both the u.s. and iran will have to make hard decisions. president biden and the senate's main republican negotiator on infrastructure plan to meet again tomorrow. the presence discussions yesterday did not result in a breakthrough. liberal democrats have been pushing biden to stop trying to

get a compromise with republicans. economists were blindsided by a major missing aprils's u.s. jobs report. now are they are ready for any number of surprises tomorrow. estimates raise from 300,000 to one million. medtronic is halting the sale of a device that helps the heart pump blood. there is growing evidence the system leads to more strokes and other adverse events. about 4000 patients have the device implanted. media company has accepted a revised offer from gray television to buy the 17 tv stations. the price a little more than $2.8 billion. the sales will allow emeritus to focus on its magazine division that publishes titles such as people and better homes & gardens. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more

than 120 countries. i am karina mitchell. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the real concern is longer-term persistent

inflation. i let up get -- i get a little wary of hearing the fed say they had all the tools. they had all the tools in 1962 and it got out of hand. you have to watch the pressures a little more carefully than they are watched right now. tom: glenn howard of columbia university -- glenn hubbard of columbia university. the jobs data all in all pretty good off adp and a better than good claims. the market improves. -30 on futures. romaine bostick and tom keene. jon ferro is off. lisa abramowicz prepares for the 9:00. we digressed and we can do that with our reporter in florida. joining us is michael mcglone of bloomberg intelligence. the bitcoin conference 2021 in miami. i want to begin on bitcoin with one of the key speakers, which is the senator from wyoming,

cynthia loomis. what will the luminaries of the world want to hear from the senator from wyoming? michael: i think they will want to hear about proper regulation and the u.s. government not doing anything like banning it, which is very unlikely. the unique things about the conference, these people are bitcoin maximists. the biggest performer this year is a theory him -- is the theory him -- is etherium. bitcoin has been a done. tom: you are coalescing around the price point on bitcoin. 39,000. to the people at the conference by the price or layoff by it at matt miller like 4000? michael: most of the people are

the kind that would never suspend it or sell it. they think it is here to stay. they look at it as more of a collectible. tom: that is like romaine on amc. michael: they are looking at it. people are here because the prices going up. if the price was $2000, no one would care. that is the key thing i see. no one would stop this accumulation of prices in crypto. it is headed pretty significant discount in the price. we have refreshed the bull. romaine: i assume most of these folks are not your normal fundamental investors. backward we were back at 63,000 a month and a half ago there was a lot of talk about companies embracing this, putting it on their balance sheets, may be using it as a form of payment. has that top died down, is it still out there -- has that talk died down, is it still out there? mike: the new thing about

bitcoin is you cannot analyze gold anymore without pairing it with bitcoin. now as -- now i look at bitcoin as little bit naked if it is not paired with etherium. that happened around 30,000, we sought more institutional buyers coming in wanting to buy dips but not willing to buy it gets parabolic around 60. romaine: there is legitimacy issue. there is a new cryptocurrency produced every 10 seconds. i would get something in my email box about something i've never heard of. the idea that for this industry to remain legitimate and increase its legitimacy it has to shake out some of the second and third tier operations. we get to a stage where those types of folks do get shaken out and we get left with something that is little bit more stable? mike: that is a good point.

there is now 10,000 cryptocurrencies listed. signs of speculative excess. a key thing that has happened is the tide went out and we saw what was close. the top are bitcoin, etherium, and tether. i think we will get rid of some of the speculative excesses but there should be some winners. that is well reflected in the bloomberg crypto index up well over 100%. tom: you are killing me. one final question before we let you go back to the true believers. when does the government step in? what do you anticipate from treasury or commerce on bitcoin? mike: there is not much more in bitcoin. the next key step will bet after. it is hard for the ftc to say no to bitcoin atf.

it will be a baby step. the next will be regulation on stable coins i.e. tether. china is pushing back. the u.s. has been embracing it. i think the u.s. has been embracing the fact that enhancing dollar dominance and stable coin is a key indication of that. tom: michael mcglone from cracker barrel in miami. thank you so much. romaine: nicer than a cracker barrel. i hope so. tom: we have to get back to amc. we make jokes about it. a lot of people have made a lot of money. what is your experience and how they know when to sell? romaine: i do not think there is a lot of experience. you have two types of people. the true believers who think this is a turnaround story, they will hold on for dear life, and you have the folks here to flip this. the venture capital types you

know it is overvalued and saw the momentum and took advantage of it. there will also be a lot of people who get a harsh lesson. we saw the offering coming down the pipe. you'll see that coming from a mile away. tom: david wilson has been looking at the earnings release. what you see framed up for third and fourth quarter? romaine: it is going to be all about margin expansion. the revenue growth will not stick. most investors have already prepared for that. there are a lot of companies that do have pricing power and they could flex that power and expand margins even though the revenue growth rates will not be nearly as high. the other thing to keep an ion as we move forward is this idea of the supply chain issues. this will persist deeper into the year. we are hearing more ceos talk about this. that is not transitory. tom: we do not have evidence the supply chain issue is easing up. romaine: it is there, and a lot

of folks think through the end of this year this'll will be a major factor. a lot of the order you need to do for the next six months needs to begun now. they cannot do it. tom: romaine bostick, through the day he will attend on the equity markets, particularly on amc. i need to frame up where we are. we had the wednesday adp this morning, and on the back of that we had claims. both of those numbers were better than good according to the economists and guests we speak to. i want to make note of claims and the trend we see on claims, which is the best chart i have in my universe. fix was 19, comes into 18.78. futures at -27. yields do not know what to do. we are at a 1.59 handle on the 10 year yield.

looking at the real yield, -0.85. a less negative real yield this morning. stay with us through the morning on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television. good morning. ♪

lisa: from new york city for our viewers worldwide, i am lisa abramowicz in for jonathan ferro

. the countdown to the open starts right now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. ♪ lisa: we begin with the big issue. markets gearing up for the payrolls report. >> the jobs report, the jobs report. >> that'll be a key data point. >> playing a game of chicken. >> a lot of questions about the outlook for the economy. >> it feels like a bit of a coin toss at this point. >> regardless of what payrolls are. >> we will need more data. >> clearly an issue with the lackla