inflation program. >> my argument is the fed's changing policy. >> regardless of what the fed does, the u.s. economy is going to grow somewhere 6%, 7%, 8%. >> 2022 will be a year of deceleration. announcer: this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro. tom: it is the simulcast on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television. joining me, matt miller and taylor riggs. thrilled to have taylor with us as well on a jobs day. i would suggest the entire world looks on america after what we witnessed 30 days ago. matt: the biggest negative surprise in history.

now we are expecting a smaller number. i think the survey is for $674,000. if you check out that function on your bloomberg terminal, you can see we are now at 800,000. i love that function, tom. it will be interesting to see what happens today. i wonder what would happen if we have another big miss. tom: that would be a value add for folks. here's what you need to know, the survey in the last day off of what we saw yesterday with claims, off of the adp report, has gone from 655,000 to a new statistic of 674,000. esther miller talks about 800,000 as well. taylor, how you frame this jobs day? taylor: the inputs are so sensitive that the output could range from zero jobs to $1 million -- one million jobs.

it is maybe the inputs that are creating the outputs and it is a wide range and we await that april number what we get today in terms of may. tom: the market is wrapped around his. taylor, i know you are looking into this. the market has shifted. it is important to go on a four day work week from the compression of a correlated tuesday and the stew of tuesday and then wednesday into thursday. when i look at the market very briefly, or icao market pricing in that whisper mark -- i see a market pricing in that whisper number that mark -- matt is talking about. taylor: we have been talking about 160 to 173. but it is 160, 162 that has been holding despite the better adp jobless claims. you're getting that reflationary feeling.

it is the magnetism of the 162 that remains. let's start with that this morning. i want to bring in the inflation-adjusted yield because that has moved as well. tom: the 10 year yield is 1.63%. the real yield has moved. it is a lesser negative statistic. that is a big deal, that we have seen that shift. brent crude still rounded up $72 per barrel. matt: brent crude and nymex both at pretty high levels. i remember quite well a decade ago when we were looking at $146 and $147. i believe the saudi's need a little bit more to balance their budget. even with these levels, i think that opec-plus would not mind seeing it higher. tom: the market in the equity

space as we look process that, red and green on the screen. between the 19 level and the 16 level, really an all week. looking for data and we will get that data at 8:30. this is the view on the american labor economy. i will be speaking with secretary of labor near the 10:00 hour. taylor: it is the only thing we care about. it is 8:30 that the u.s. made payroll support. of course, 9:55, your u.s. labor secretary interview. one of these days i will figure out the difference between tom and jon. finally, we will hear from president joe biden on that jobs report. certainly a lot going on as we count you down to 8:30. tom: there we are, the summary of the morning festivities. all of this to get us into the weekend and to get us into this, a statement on this pandemic and all the different dynamics we see within our financial system

and our economics. that is a perfect segue into the former governor, randall croson or -- randall kroszner joins us now from london, where he has been for many months. professor, thank you so much for letting us start strong on this jobs day. did you see this labor economy -- as you see this labor economy and the battle of our politics, how close or are we to fully employed? randall: we are not there yet. we could have a stronger labor market. it is clear that we have labor shortages. we see that in just talking to businesspeople. it is a strong labor market. we are recovering quickly. a lot of people will not be back in the jobs market. part of that is because they have decided it is too vulnerable -- volatile. they are getting some good

benefits, but eventually that will fall off. the thing to focus on will be what is happening with wages. exactly as you were discussing. the numbers could bounce all over the place. they could be lower, they could be higher because of high demand. but we have to look through that and see what is the wage pressure that is coming and that will be the key. tom: governor, a very scary course at the university of chicago is economics for liberal arts majors. it is a frightening event. i am sure what you do is underscoring the complexity of our labor system. renaissance macro absolutely nails the distinction right now is are we seeing a longer work week or are we seeing more jobs? at some point, that slips to more jobs -- flips to more jobs, doesn't it? randall: if you look at the

number of job openings, it is enormous. we are also seeing that people are willing to quit their jobs. they only quit their jobs when they feel confident they can get another one. there are lots of job openings out there. there will be opportunities for people. it is just are there enough incentives for people to come back into the labor market? matt: what do you think of this paradigm change that we are watching, randall kroszner, and terms of the shift from monetary policy from the reagan era to this new era of basically mmt? it seems like the freshwater economists have been drowned in saltwater. there is no more trust in free markets. there is no more real business cycle. there is no more monetarism. what is the point of the chicago booth school?

randall: i am not quite sure that we have been drowned yet. i think there is a lot of belief in the power of markets and the value of market economy. that is a lot of what is driving the recovery. think about what happened during the pandemic. it was the innovative sectors that were allowing people to get through, to get the things that they needed. i think that is still a super important driving force. think about the creation of the vaccines. that was very much a market phenomenon. matt: we are going to run up debts of 130% of gdp. is that concerning to economists? randall: that is a separate issue. that is a very important one. there is a desire in washington to plant private sector investment with government investment. private activity with

government-sponsored activity. that is a challenge and there are many economists, not just in chicago, but throughout the country who are concerned about that. concerned about the burden we are putting on generations. someone will have to repay this debt and that will be the future generations. taylor: we have heard there is no amount of tax increases that can cover that. so you have to bring in the private sector to cover the investments. is that a possibility? randall: that is extremely important and valuable. we can have public-private partnerships like the one with the so-called operation warp speed, which helped to allow moderna, who had never produced a vaccine, not to be producing perhaps one billion vaccines this year. there can be valuable public-private partnerships. but you have to be careful to make sure that it has pay off because if it does not with helping to grow productivity and the economy, it will put a

burden on future generations. tom: i want to go to chicago over the financial integrity of the system. you are one of our great voices on this. i know you are on your laptop at some cafe in london day trading amc or gamestop. what in gods name does this mean for the system? you and i are making jokes about this, but you know a lot of money is going to be made, a lot is going to be lost. regulators are doing next to nothing on this. what is the impact on the trust in the bid and the trust in the ask? randall: that is an important question because the integrity of the markets is crucial. we have seen a lot of newcomers and a lot of coordination of those newcomers into markets in ways we have not seen before. regulators need to be aware of that and participants need to be aware of that greater volatility. we want to make sure the markets function well. we don't want sudden stops of

trading where people feel that they are not being treated fairly and other people can get in and out and they cannot. that needs a regulatory re-think for the new era where there are more people coming in and can coordinate in ways they could not before. the little guys all working together would be much more important than the traditional big guys. tom: we have to leave it there. thank you for joining us today with the booth school at the university of chicago and his public service as a governor of the federal reserve system. futures at -44. i will call it a very quiet red and green blinking across assets on my terminal. the real yield definitely does better as we do the survey numbers improve off of the economic data yesterday. we will go through the jobs report at 8:30. near the 10:00 hour, my

conversation with the secretary of labor on labor in america. on rising wages and the fear of small business that they cannot afford those higher wages. stay with us through jobs day. this is bloomberg on radio and television. good morning. ritika: president biden is turning to taxes as a way to get a compromise agreement on infrastructure. the president has pitched a 15% minimum tax on u.s. corporations. the president is setting aside his proposal to raise the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%. traders are waiting to see what the new u.s. jobs number is like. the may unemployment report is out at 8:30 according to a survey. the economy equated 674,000 jobs last month. the company has forecast a big number for april at just

$266,000. european union regulators have opened an investigation into facebook. they want to know is the social network violated competition rules by using data gathered from advertisers to compete against them in classified ads. facebook will cooperate with the investigation to show that they are without merit. china started a war on commodity prices that goldman sachs says it cannot win. the prices threaten to do on china's economy. regulators have released measures to wane them in. prices of coal have fallen as much as 22%. goldman sachs says global demand will overcome and stop that rally. someone is in talks to sell universal music. he would value the world's

largest razor company at more than $42 billion. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg.

♪ >> labor market tightness and

rising wages, wages getting enterprises, and increasing prices -- what we are seeing now will turn out to be transitory. it is hard to imagine a big wage inflation spiral at this point given that you still have 30 million jobs short from where you were going into the pandemic. tom: bill dudley, really interesting comments from a set of wonderful guests on where we going on inflation and the state of politics in america. we welcome you to our jobs day coverage. we will do a number of things going forward. i'm adjusting my bowtie right now. good early morning to san francisco. futures negative two. jon ferro and lisa abramowicz all. joining the desk joining me -- joining me, matt miller and taylor riggs.

maybe this is memphis taking a song from a number of years ago. there is a bridge in memphis that does not work across the mississippi river, across i-40. that bridge is down and down for good. infrastructure is front and center. how are we going to get it done to create jobs in america? >> there are two different things to look at today. number one, president biden needs to get shelley capito, she has been leading republican in these negotiations. yesterday, we saw the white house again tried to say we are trying to find a way to work with republicans and here is what we will propose. president biden said do not look so much at that 28% corporate rate to pay for this agreement. look at a minimum corporate rate of 15%. they see it as regardless of how many -- tom: did the senator from delaware walk away from the liberals yesterday?

emily: there are progressives who are increasingly frustrated. i think you are talking about president biden. they are frustrated with him because he has not been going solo on a deal. $2 trillion was already too low for us and you are seeing more pressure on president biden to come to an agreement. yesterday, we had jim clyburn on bloomberg surveillance and he said negotiations are ongoing, but we need to figure out how to move at some point soon. if republicans are cooperate, we need to go ahead and democrats need to get it done by themselves. taylor: there is this intel that we were seeing that there is no amount of taxes that can fund the deficit that we are accruing at this moment. at some point, you have to bring in the private sector. is there any discussion of pulling in the private sector? emily: we have seen discussions about public-private

partnerships as potentially being a part of this deal. that depends on exactly how much this infrastructure negotiation comes due. right now republicans have proposed a little more than $900 billion and the two things the white house is highlighting during the irs as well as the 15% minimum corporate rate, those things provide more than $900 billion in funding. the question for this infrastructure package specifically, can they get to something that pays for the package entirely, and if they cannot, are they comfortable passing a package that is not paid for entirely. matt: the biggest companies in america will be fighting tooth and nail against a 15% tax floor. 28 percent, they could deal with no problem. just tons of debt financing, deductions, goodbye loopholes in washington. but a debt floor means they would have to pay that and they

are used to paying less than zero. aren't lobbyists going to make that impossible? emily: there will be a lot of people with a lot of opinions on this legislative infrastructure proposal regardless of what the taxes wind up being on this one. you will be facing a lot of internal pressure, pressure from companies, but the one thing democrats will keep pointing to is saying these proposals are popular. taxing both the americans, corporations, having corporations pay their fair share. it is well above half, if not more of democratic voters and in some cases, even republican voters who are supportive of these ideas of taxing corporations and that is what the biden administration is riding on. even door corporations might not like it, the people in power will. matt: we just spoke with randall kroszner. he is in london. the finance ministers will be meeting today and one of the

topics is taxation. the expected agreement on a global corporate tax? emily: it is something that janet yellen is continuing to push for. it is something that president biden is hoping for because he thinks that will make this plan an easier sell among republicans, among democrats. that is something that the biden administration is keeping a close eye on today. tom: what would you ask the secretary of labor? i will be speaking with marty walsh and as you know, cabinet offices are really interesting and underestimated an underappreciated office as well. i have to talk to him about wages. what is your question for the secretary? emily: one of the big things we are seeing right now with these unpleasant numbers being lower than expected, there was a question that came up that part of the reason people don't want to go back to work is because wages are low. i would love to get a sense of what companies are offering pre-pandemic versus

post-pandemic and how much that is factoring into the ability for people to find jobs and for companies to hire individuals. tom: that was a topic yesterday about the bonuses being paid out in some form or another instead of being folded into the nominal wage. emily wilkins, thank you so much, our government reporter. we have to find little moments to look at what we all witnessed yesterday. we did speak to governor kroszner about it. taylor, what was it like covering amc yesterday afternoon? taylor: i could do this all day long. we go up 100% on one day, week, down. we took the stage at 2:00 p.m. our guesthouse was the cell signal. amc turns negative the moment she comes on as far as talking about fundamentals and we close down. progress is unbelievable. the volatility. the professor said it best, most evaluations look good, but what

is the signal when you have people out there buying amc, by an gamestop who literally say we do not care about fundamentals. what does that tell you? tom: we will summarize it and we will see how amc trades through the day from a 76 calculus yesterday about 24 hours ago. we are down $30 from there. we make jokes about it, but this is not funny. there is a real question about the integrity of the bid and ask across the market. matt: to those on wall street, this is amusing. this is why they are doing it. they realize they could lose all of their money and they are ready to do just that. these bubbles tend to last a few days and then they move on to pot stocks and something else. you can see nokia or blackberry be the new gainers after this amc bubble runs out. taylor: i have a blackberry. do you know that? tom: you have a blackberry?

taylor: a very important blackberry with a keyboard. tom: we will continue on jobs day. jeffrey rosenberg is scheduled to be with us. add carl riccadonna of bloomberg intelligence will be with us next. his thoughts on this jobs day -- jobs day. on radio and television, good morning. morning.

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♪ tom: good morning. we welcome all of you worldwide to jobs day in america. taylor riggs and matt miller in for jon ferro and lisa abramowicz. i want to get to the data. it is important to frame where we are. on tuesday, we had a correlated market. a really tight terminal. that changed yesterday and into the jobs claims numbers that we saw at 8:30. what we got this morning is a better tape. there is no question about that. i would say within the real yield going negative, that is my best indicator of a better jobs report to come. taylor: 100%, even though you get the magnetism of capital

markets talking about the 162,000. you have to break out either above 170 or 153. that payrolls report will be the catalyst that drives that moves. tom: right now, let's go to carl riccadonna. really simple here. it was wonderfully nuanced about the dynamics right now. i want to zero in on labor participation. to me, that is the best indicator that we are not back to february of 2020. we are halfway back at best. how long do we take to get back? is it a matter of months or are we looking into 2022 in search of normal? carl: the main jobs report will be critical because it will tell us whether april was a flute or whether -- fluke or whether we are in a slower growth dynamics. we have a jobs deficit of 8.2 million workers relative to

where we were in february 2020. if we are creating jobs at a pace like we did last month, 260,000 or so, it will take three years. most economists are confident that we will see a faster pace of gains than that, but the notion that we will be printing one million jobs per month and be there by year-end or early 2022 seems to be hitting some difficulties in terms of what we have seen in recent job creation. tom: i will go academic here with carl riccadonna. i thought bill dudley was absolutely brilliant in his essay where he leads off with the way this works is companies have to demand workers. is there evidence of labor demand? carl: there is certainly evidence of labor demand, but there is evidence that potential workers are sitting on the

sidelines waiting for jobless benefits to expire, waiting for schools to reopen, and waiting for jobs with decent pay and decent benefits relative to what they held prior to the pandemic. the supply and demand dynamic that we pay close attention to and if we look at the measures of demand, life new layoffs -- like layoffs and jobs numbers, those suggest robust conditions. but i will be on the pessimistic side going into today's number because when we look at what really matters, the number of people collecting longer-term unemployment benefits, things like continuing claims, they have not budged over the course of the last month to any meaningful degree. that causes me to have skepticism that maybe we could see not something as weak as what we saw in april, but something that still has a tone of sluggishness.

if we look at the hiring surveys, whether it is a manufacturing ism for these regional surveys out of new york, philadelphia, etc., all of them show deteriorating labor conditions and a slower pace of hiring over the course of the last month. potentially, the risk is that we see some endemic sluggishness carryover from april into may. tom: this beautifully encapsulates the report we will see. all of the enthusiasm, the whisper number that matt miller talked about his giant arm is. there is a whole other current going on underneath this. taylor: 100%. the 18 or 20 or 25 states that are starring -- starting to cut back on that extra unemployment benefit insurance you were talking about, do we get any clue about the angle that those states start to take this

payrolls report? carl: about half of the states have decided to reduce the federal subsidy or in lemonade the federal subsidy for unemployment benefits. much of that happened in the last couple of weeks and it takes time for those programs to be implemented. i believe that may be the determination of the federal supplement is going to have an impact on the june jobs report. as we think about the longer-term issue, all of the states will lose that federal match up by labor -- later this year. post labor day when schools are reopened and the federal supplement is gone, then the real truth will be towed as the is happening in the labor market. matt: we are swimming in money here. the states have $350 billion to

spend. we are looking at a $6 trillion budget that will be the highest we have ever had. why aren't wages rising faster? carl: it is hard to say what is happening with wages because we are in the eye of the storm trying to take some measurements and you will see those distortions in average earnings today. we see it in the employment cost index and the productivity data. we have to get past the period. the economy is growing 10% in the current quarter. it will probably grow in the next quarter as well. there is all sorts of smoke and distortion and whirlwinds that are making it difficult to get the underlying read, which is why we have to go back to what richard clarida said on this program two months ago, how he said we have to wait until we are in the back half of the year to get a cleaner read of what is happening. however, if we assess fundamentals, if we look at/in

the economy, labor/is going to be the determinant of wage pressures and consumer inflation. janet yellen had her dashboard of labor indicators. jay powell has one gauge on his dashboard and it is the job deficit. until we make substantial improvement, then he and the fed are going to have convictions that any inflation measures we see are going to be fleeting, transitory, and we will moderate as the economy moderates over the next several orders. matt: in the post-pandemic world, do american laborers have the skills needed? is this labor crunch just about pay, about the workers that we need are not skilled in the subject they need to be? carl: they are going to be placement issues if we have the

economy growing 10%, placing enough jobs is going to be challenging. what we saw in the last economic cycle was we were able to train up workers into the skills that were needed for those types of jobs. i am always an advocate for more worker training, better education, etc. what we saw the last cycle was that employers can help along with the necessary skill set and you might not need a particular degree to be placed in a job. you just need the job training. tom: a final question. the application of technology, the jumpstart in technology, the enhancement of technology that we were forced upon in this pandemic. how does that change this report and the labor economy of the next 12 months? carl: there are a couple of factors. there is technology, globalization, and lower unionization rates over the course of the last 40 to 50 years. all of that means that workers

have less bargaining power than they historically had, which means we can run the economy hotter without having the inflation consequences that we have historically had. a sense of job insecurity, which will reemerge as the economy downshifts from 10% growth to something closer to 4% next year and 2% the year after that, is going to reassert and we have seen lots of nice bonuses and benefits and perks as workers and employers are scrambling for workers. but i don't think this is a sustained trend where suddenly workers have more pricing power in the marketplace. the final point i will make, we can go further than the recovery from the 1982 recession. we had a similar growth profile in the economy and it was not inflationary. it did not lead to a significant re-acceleration in inflation pressures because there was flat -- slack in the economy.

tom: we had double recessions back to back of a certain mild character. carl riccadonna, our chief economist this morning. i am looking at the markets and i want to mention the shift we saw yesterday. taylor riggs, we saw the two year yield moved out. there is no question. up from a 0.14 to 0.16. a little bit of a nudge. taylor: and the five year yield migrates northward five basis points as well. it has been the big sticking point as the federal reserve takes a look at yield curve control. tom mentioned that two year yield and to year breakevens rising and rising faster than the long run breakeven. tom: you can see it in euro and yen. euro really pulls away from the 122 weaker euro over the better job prospects in america. matt: i am looking into the

currency changes because we have had so many guests on "surveillance early edition" talking about the downtrend, but when we see days like this, you have to wait for the data, but it looks like the dollar is ready for a resurgence. tom: i would not call it a resurgence, we have ensconced a weak dollar. it has been a brutal week. taylor: three standard deviations we blew out into further lira weakness two days ago. i stole it directly from you and claimed it as my own. tom: i am sure you did. the royalty checks, 1/10 of a beverage. turkish lira this morning, a .70. we saw a .69. an unimaginable weaker lira.

coming up, the pandemic and jobs day. andrew pekosz joins us from the johns hopkins wilber school of public health. futures negative three. dow futures, -60. good morning on radio and tv. it is jobs day. ritika: president biden has not given up on trying to get republicans on board with his infrastructure proposal. he has raised the top of that possibility of a 15% tax on u.s. corporations. the white house says the president has not abandoned his goal in raising the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%. he is setting it aside for now. president biden's revamp of donald trump's blacklist -- the president signed an order naming 59 companies in baltimore county

technology sectors. americans are banned from investing unlike the previous order. it does not affect those subsidiaries that gives both sides and opening for discussion. big investment banks are having a hard time persuading traders to leave london for jobs in paris. jp morgan asked a team of about 15 equity derivative traders to move to paris. about half of them quit because of brexit. the eu insists more assets and business must move from london in the coming years. apple is trying to keep the momentum going for ipads. the sales were rejuvenated during the pandemic. the company is working on a new ipad pro wireless charging. it is redesigning the ipad many for the first time in six years. ipad sales soared 79% in the first three months of the year. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am ritika gupta.

this is bloomberg. berg.

♪ >> private businesses are going to require vaccines proof

provided that the government prevents them from doing that. but they will at some point start requiring vaccine proof to allow people to go to concerts and things like that. it is tricky because there are people out there who are hesitant and their hesitancy is not without reason. this is a new vaccine. tom: a comment from jennifer nuzzo on the state of this pandemic. america celebrates really having a challenging time. we welcome you on this jobs day. a real focus on the economics. james and j.p. morgan will be here in a bit. taylor riggs and matt miller in for jon ferro and lisa abramowicz. on the pandemic, andrew pekosz. as we wander into june, i want to stop and talk about the great unspoken that i see in new york, the great unspoken in baltimore,

and that is the triumph of the pharmacy, the microbiology, and the virology. let's begin with how we did. what did pfizer and moderna do in america that allowed this vaccine excellent? -- vaccine excellence? andrew: they paid attention to the basic science. the basic research that was done 10, 15 years prior to the pandemic, which gave us the information we needed to look at this virus sequence when it first emerged and say, what papers are out there that tell us how to make this vaccine. this looks exactly what we have done before for this coronavirus and we move forward with lightning speed with the help of government that allowed to cut through the red tape and move past some of the things that

were slowing things down, but still allowed us to move forward in an efficient way, maintaining safety and maintaining efficacy as well. tom: i will suggest you and others like the baltimore orioles in the beginning of the season, when i look at the cdc report on mrna vaccines, "the vaccine does not contain any virus so it cannot give you covid-19. it cannot change your dna in any way." we have done a lousy job of selling that idea to people who are non-scientist and afraid. how do we change that? andrew: the biggest issue is the communication that happens via social network mechanisms that really allows for things that are inflammatory, things that seem more challenging, seem more dangerous, but are yet not

fact-based to spread like wildfire. that is the hardest thing to do. historically, i have been looking at the other years of vaccine hesitancy with polio vaccines and even going back to robert jenner and the smallpox vaccinations. there were people during that time that were incredibly anti-vaccine, even though smallpox was a disease that was horrific in terms of the damage that was it -- that it was inducing in the population. the social media outlets have allowed these messages to be amplified much faster and we are always impressed, or there is the impression that is made, when we send these messages of things that could potentially be problematic or harmful. it is a massive problem that moves away from the science and really into the communication fields and how to do to do the medication more effectively. taylor: we are 30 days away from

a self-imposed july 4 deadline. where are we on the pastor to getting 80% inoculation and 10 we all get free beer from it? andrew: i love the idea of getting free beer for vaccination. unfortunately, i got my vaccination before those incentives. i think that we have slowed a lot in the past month to two months. we saw a massive surge. we got to 50% of the population getting vaccinated in an incredibly fast rate. we got our kids vaccinated when that became available at a fast rate, but now we are seeing a level that personally i find underwhelming. we really need to push past the 70% guideline that has been set up by the government. i have always viewed that as a minimum. what i mean by that is you reach that 70%, you will have a massive effect on severe disease

and hospitalization because you have immunized those sensitive populations. but if you want to get to herd immunity where everybody, including the unvaccinated people in the population, are benefiting from people who get the vaccine, you have to push past that 70% level, otherwise we have a country with two populations. matt: what is the danger to the vaccinated of the unvaccinated? andrew: the most important danger is the unvaccinated. the infection rates in the unvaccinated populations are much higher than the rate we are reporting for the population because there is a divergence there. vaccinated people are getting infected at an incredibly low rate. unvaccinated people are getting infected at a high rate. anytime you have populations that are unvaccinated, you are giving this virus a chance to

evolve to various that are better able to transmit. if you let this virus fester in the population, we are sure to see variants emerged that are better infecting both vaccinated as well as unvaccinated people. tom: thank you so much and congratulations to johns hopkins for their part of the effort in this pandemic. he is from the bloomberg school of public health and michael bloomberg, the principle of this television and radio network as well. futures at negative one. the vix 18.51. we were talking about the foreign exchange market with dxy stronger. we have an ecb meeting upon us next week, don't we? matt: absolutely. it looks like as of now that they will continue with their asset purchase program at least through the summer. over here, you have a lot more

for natural dovishness than you do over there. the ecb has been talking about tapering much longer than the fed has been talking about talking about tapering. tom: what i read is that europe is very regional. his berlin in lockdown? matt: berlin is opening up this weekend for the first time completely. we have had outdoor dining for the last couple of weeks, but starting today, and i have a reservation, we will be able to go in restaurants, in movie theaters, in gyms, gymnasiums. tom: you will be ordering a budweiser, no doubt. taylor: you can get popcorn at an amc movie theater. free popcorn. matt: only one. i usually eat two or three. tom: thank you for your support this week. on this jobs day, i will advance

forward with taylor riggs. romaine bostick is off and may join us in a bit. we start strong in the hour. td securities, the litmus paper of the american financial system on fixed income on this jobs day. looking forward to speaking to her. stay with us. this is bloomberg.

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♪ >> the fed to stop fixing to do something and actually do something. >> it is hard to have much of an inflation problem if wages are still quite quiescent. >> the fed is changing policy. >> regardless of what the fed does or does not do, the economy is going to go somewhere 6%, 7%, 8% this year. >> 2022 is going to be a year of deceleration. the economy is going to be growing slower. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom:tom: good morning, everyone. a simulcast, bloomberg radio and bloomberg television. a jobs day after the humbling we saw 30 days ago. every economist missed the mark. jon off, police officer. romaine bostick with us -- jon off, asa