tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg June 7, 2021 6:00am-7:00am EDT
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are not coming back into the jobs market. >> people will marketable coming back to work there demanding more wages to do it. >> the market isn't too complacent about the fed not even talking about talking about tapering. >> we are still awash with excess liquidity. it helps to support a lot of valuation. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." tom: good morning, everyone. good morning. matthew miller and for jonathan ferro. we have all of this policy stuff going on. the 10 year yield, 1.57 handle, i would expected that. lisa: you're actually getting somebody developments whether it is on the tax friends or the fed will or will not taper. you are seeing nothing in markets.
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for all intents and purposes, it is a no drama monday. tom: no drama monday signifies nothing is going to get done. we will dive into it this day and this week. lisa, a look at where the yield is and where the real yield is, which is unchanged. what a story from one week or one month ago. lisa: the idea especially because there friday jobs report is perhaps the fed is correct. they have it under control. you look at some of the underlying data, you can see wage pressure starting to increase, particularly in the industrial side. what happens if you get an increase in inflation and yet we don't see material and improvement, some of the headline liver marjorie -- market metrics? i think that will be a conundrum. tom: it will be interesting. a sharp note out this morning that underscores the stasis.
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europe is fascinating. forget about the mess in the united kingdom, would you beautifully underscored in the last 20 minutes, in europe, is it essentially thumb up into the summer or thumbs down? matt: it looks like thumb up. we're reopening at a decent pace and inflation is coming back to some extent. thursday, we will have an ecb meeting and everyone expects the central bank, bad him lagarde, to raise their inflation target -- madam lagarde, to raise their inflation target. it sounds like that very much from where you're setting but for us, it is a dream come true. the question is, can i keep it going? can we continue to reopen at this pace? tom: the reopening we are seeing a spread out across the country. we will have the oecd secretary-general with us.
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matt, help me with data. what do you see? matt: i am watching a currencies pretty closely. look at the euro. we're getting pretty close to some of the support levels the analysts i talked to are watching. we continue to drop down, which is interesting because you expect the ecb gets a little bit more hawkish at the next meeting and maybe starts to change some language. you can see a turnaround stop the tenure yield he already talked about. -- you can see the turnaround. the 10 year yield you already talked about. german yield climbing up to less than 20 basis points of negative yield, although we are still negative across the spectrum all the way out to two years even in greece and italy. nymex crude coming down a little
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but still at $70 a barrel almost. that looks like a brent quote. tom: i should note bitcoin. miller is struggling in berlin. burma which is lost in the adirondacks. i know looking at the apple conference. lisa: frankly, there is not a lot else happening, let's be honest. apple kicks off its developers conference. potentially could announce a new ipad throw. you can get this for a vet bill an afterthought in the palace can leave it under the couch. tom: i already ordered the new one. lisa: there is a question here about what apple can introduce to keep the momentum going.
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you see the share is down in premarket trading. this is because a sensibly of the tax agreement by the g7 leaders. why is it not done more considering the potential consequence with balance sheets? something we will be discussing. president biden will be meeting with senator shelley more pito who has been spearheading the -- shelley moore capito, who has been spearheading. there is no deadline. this can continue to be negotiated. also today, i love this story because it highlights where we are in the covid fight. teens 12 to 15 and start getting vaccinated in germany. they just approve the pfizer biontech seen her younger teens.
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we are seeing a massive decline in the number of infections across the globe, about the lowest in three months. in the u.s., the lowest level of infection since may 20 20 -- march 2020, excuse me. the question is whether the data can catch up quickly enough. tom: good news on the pandemic worldwide. there are some challenging lockdown's year and there but all in all, very constructive. starting strong with bruce kasman. head of global economic research. trying to get out a message on economics. linking global inflation with the recovery we are saying, dev patel those two. is it a good inflation or bad inflation? bruce: i think there is some of both. on the spike we are seeing, definitely some problems in terms of companies adjusting supply to demand, the
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bottlenecks you see in the semiconductor, the used car prices. there are bunch of forces pushing of inflation, which is not great in terms of what we would like to see. the other side is we are seeing price normalization in what our depressed levels of service prices as we see activity picking up. that is constructive. the bottom line is we are getting a big spike in inflation and looking for another big number this week with a rise in the core pci. lisa: what does the fed dupuis see an increase in cpi? we don't see improvement in the pace of job gains akin to what we saw on friday? bruce: there are three things. one, continuing to guide us that it is not going to change rates anytime soon and a response to an inflation spike they think is largely temporary. we think they will continue to guide, this will be but hold at
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least through 2022. the second thing is start telling us if they are wrong -- and that could be wrong -- inflation is more persistent, then down the road they can do they need to do to keep inflation under control. in that regard, they will if not encourage, at least tolerate a rising expectation of rates. finally, what we are not going to get in june but we need is mark 30 about the balance sheet. -- more clarity about the balance sheet. they will tell us it is too soon. matt: our bloomberg opinion: missed says it is difficult to model -- columnist says it is difficult to model. and because the fed has been deliberately vague about what inflation, what flexible targeting really means. how much harder is that making
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your job? bruce: forecasting is difficult, particularly the future. beasley, we are going there very volatile period. the economy is entering a boom face led by the consumer, that europe is joining it. as you just mentioned, the news on vaccines and viruses starting to look good globally. the fiscal issues we are in a strong phase of growth that is not going away anytime soon. the spike in inflation i think is largely temporary. whatever is going to happen, the fed for the time being, is going to be relatively cautious and continue to hold the line. on the inflation targeting side, the fed once inflation to get up to the mid- 2's for a while. he wanted to settle at two in the medium term. i don't think these parameters are that far away from where we might think ranges are so there is a lot of uncertainty. executing is very difficult.
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i think the fed is clear on what it wants. tom: michael verrilli and your team have led the way on our potential -- where we are in a demographic and economic standpoint. have you tweaked your gdp to be a more optimistic statistic coming out of this pandemic with all the stainless? bruce: interesting question and we are struggling with that. we have not changed our view. as you can see in the latest employment report, more generally there has been damage to the supply-side on labor but at the same time a big productivity surge. some of that is the rotation directly due to gravity -- productivity sectors. it remains to be seen in terms of lasting damage from this effect. we're not taking a view of really trying to change that even from 1.5% potential growth rate. tom: bruce kasman, thank you so much.
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lisa, really good conversation and a potential gdp which is frankly europe-like. most americans are not adjusted. lisa: and this is a question of whether we can get that warp speed that can get us out of the hole we are in. if we don't, it raises the question about inflation. you asked a good question, is a good or bad inflation? i was in california this weekend -- don't ask -- you saw the price of gas at $4.50. what does that due to consumer appetite? tom: well, guess -- matt, how does your do high gas prices? matt: i was going to say, i would pay $4.50 to be able to pay $4.50 a gallon for gas. that is still pretty cheap compared to what i am taking with and i use -- i am getting 10 miles a gallon with my truck
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here. we just have other ways. tom: are you the only one in germany with anh2? lisa: he has his own all right. -- his own oil rig. tom: "bloomberg surveillance." this is "bloomberg." ♪ >> u.s. treasury secretary janet yellen's has higher interest rates could be a plus for the u.s. and the federal reserve. yellen said president biden should push ahead with this for chile dollars spending plan, even if it triggers inflation. she says any sport in prices resulting from the rescue package will fade away next year. some of the world's biggest tech companies are welcoming g7
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agreement on a minimum corporate tax rate at 50%. facebook says it is the first step towards certainty for businesses. the process will be to civility under the tax system. the agreement is designed out countries that pose taxes on tech giants such as facebook and amazon but it may not be implemented for years. in china, the trade boom continued last month. exports grew almost 20% in dollar terms for me earlier, weaker than forecast and blow the pace in april but still well above historical growth rates. imports soared 51%. rising commodity prices. in germany, boosting chances of succeeding angela merkel as chancellor the final electoral contest before september's national election. he guided the christian democrats to victory in the country's poorest states. the outcome will help ease doubts about his ability to lead.
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harmful dynamic, making commitments today to provide tremendous momentum toward achieving a robust global minimum tax at a rate of at least 15%. tom: the secretary of treasury and a united states in london. -- of the united states in london. really, really something. before we continue the story, i want to bring to your attention william dudley with his scathing essay on bloomberg opinion released moments ago. i loved his lapsed effort -- last effort. this is, mr. powell, perhaps you have it wrong. the problem is that that is but a new strategy to practice in unnecessarily extreme way, cooling things off will require the fed to increase interest rates much faster and further than it would if it started
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raising rates sooner. we will talk about that through the morning most of matthew miller and for jonathan ferro. marty, that is the heart of the matter. this is a treaty. marty: it is a treaty. the thing is about treaties, they have to be approved back home by the legislatures. as our story points out, this could take a very long time. lisa: what are the implications when it comes to u.s. tax policies since there are some in order to get some of the policy up to speed with what the global agreement has? marty: what it is going to mean is in order to implement 50% minimum tax, are going to have to change legislation -- 15% minimum tax, are going to have to change legislation in the u.s. as we can see joe biden is having a hell of a time to get republicans on the same page on taxes. matt: this is something we were
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talking about last week because the biden administration floated the possibility of a 50% minimum corporate tax -- 15%, corporate tax instead of 20% rate. to me the fascinating thing is that would be a floor, meaning no matter how many deductions you have, no matter how many loopholes you controlled congress to give you, you still have to pay 15%, which for some would be worse. marty co. and i think you're talking about companies like amazon. it is true. some of us remember the alternative minimum tax that used to be in play and that is the same thing for companies that that was for individuals. you would have to pay a certain minimum a now -- i'm out and that would be a seachange. tom: i want or underscore the interview with janet yellen in london.
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what do we learn from the interview with secretary yellen? marty: she is making the case, and rightfully so, if interest rates would have to rise -- tom: she said it is a good thing. marty: there are a lot of people that agree with that. tom: is a financial plus thing but i thought it was a pretty bold statement. maybe it is an economist rationalizing -- that was quite weekend for secretary treasury. marty: she ventured into an area of monetary policy as the treasury secretary, which is sort of not something you're supposed to do. but she is very comfortable. tom: she is rude as lisa and that is rude. lisa: she is saying if we end up was slightly higher interest rates, would be a plus from the fed's point of view. we have been putting inflation, too low now for a decade.
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that is aquote. there's a question how much this goes against jay powell versus underscore the main takeaway, which is they eventually want to normalize policy. however, there is a larger question which is, do we want this? how is this being viewed in washington at the treasury secretary is acting increasingly like her former role as fed chair? marty: i don't think washington as a whole delves into details like they do on "surveillance." i think it is interesting bill dudley, as tom pointed out, is saying, yeah, interest rates are going to have to rice but they will have to write a lot more and a lot faster than the fed realizes. -- rise a lot more and a lot faster than the fed realizes. former policymakers sort of lining up in opposition to craig economic policy. matt: dudley says when they
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start to raise rates, if they push unemployment up i just have to percent, that is very likely to cause a full-blown recession. -- by just half a percent, that is likely to cause a full-blown recession. it seems to be the consensus. when i was a kid, my grandparents lived on a fixed income. my parents as far as i know live on a fixed income. that is not helpful to them, inflation. doesn't that hurt retirees? party: it depends on where the inflation is. if interest rates rise, money market funds are returning close to zero. so retirees who have fixed income but the 401(k)'s are going nowhere so it depends on where the inflation shows up. tom: i have got to ask you, lilibet diana. they had that ball out of the park with the name on the new
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baby. party: it was trending on twitter, so it must have been a good choice. tom: marty schenker did not expect that question this morning. lisa: hold on a second. is that really the barometer of success trending on twitter? tom: i was trending on twitter once for like three seconds. i don't know what it was about. there it is. twitter is a mess. they are trying to make changes. matt miller, are you using twitter a lot? matt: i am on twitter and i wish i had the courage to commitc twittercide because it really takes up my time. the technology debate certainly behind so much of what was the on taxation will be one of our themes again to the week.
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do i really have to lose a nap to watch the apple conference? lisa: it is at 1:00 p.m. i don't think you'll lose the nap for this. there is been a revolt among apple workers after being told they had to come back to the office three times a week and they basically said, they don't understand us and they protested. look, you're not listening to our feedback. raising the question of whether it is legitimate for employees to push back against employers for them to demand them coming back to the office. tom: we will have a really definitive interview on this in the 8:00 hour with a truly expert on the actual research of -- really, the research of work from home. looking forward to that. the resilience of the equity market defies lisa abramowicz. it is a bull market. with writing green on the screen and dow futures up 6 -- i am just doing that for ferro.
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tom: "bloomberg surveillance." good morning, everyone. matt miller is in portland -- berlin first. i really important interview and particularly for those that enjoy the heritage of wall street. jurrien timmer has a fancy title called global macro director. but the real jurrien timmer is the keeper of the charts. the most important paper display of charts and into business, truly, in the world. we are joyed he could join us this morning. which chart matters the most right now? jurrien: many matters
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but the one -- if only had one indicator, it would be the chart of real rates, especially the five-year real yield. that one is near -2% and i think that level and magnitude of real rates is really what has driven a lot of this market. that is highly reflationary. a period of negative real rates. we saw that during world war ii. real rates, especially the five-year because that is most affected by the fed because the fed is -- in the belly of the curve, sets forward guidance out that long. the five-year rather than the 10 year is the chart right now. tom: lisa, you really highlighted the distinction of the 10 year five-year inflation-adjusted yield. lisa: the question i have is this market has been rather
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boring. it looks like people think the that has it right, kind of waiting for something to change. you think things are not quite as boring. can you explain? jurrien: look at the 10 year, the last run-up started to be driven lower by real rates going less negative rather that the conflation expectations going up -- inflation expectations going up. the fed as well as the markets don't really mind rising rates as long as it is for the right reason, which would be inflation. but if there rising for the wrong reason, which would be real rates becoming less negative, different story. then you get into temper tantrum territory. the stock market has gone literally sideways, but need the surface, can see rotation. earlier in the year, we had the meme stocks, the nonprofitable
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tech baskets, we had the secular growers all very sensitive to liquidity environment. very impacted by rises in the discount rate, further discounted cash flow model. one by one, these highflying momentum sectors were taken out of the woodshed and the crypto stuff is in the crosshairs right now. even of the s&p just as there at 4100, churning underneath. you could say even that is a correction. i bring it back to the financial crisis 2009, 2010 where we had the enormous rally off the march 2009 low, 75% gain. did q what april 2010. market fell uniformly 15%, 60% before it resumed a bull market. we're in the same position where we had evaluation driven phase at the rally, the early cycle
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phase and now moving toward an earnings driven phase of the rally. the rate of change of trailing earnings is slipping from negative to positive. in that transition, sometimes you get a little indigestion because usually the fed is trying to normalize policy and that is the big discussion we are having. whether we see correction, short-term correction, or it is underneath the surface, it is something we don't really know but there is stuff going on for sure. lisa: can you elaborate? there's a lot to unpack, potentially the market is due for a broader drawdown and it could be triggered by a fed policy error or just a of tapering? is that what you foresee? jurrien: i would not even call it an error. it is hard for the fed to maintain the degree of accommodation when the output gap, which opened up very widely
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during the pandemic, is closing fairly rapidly. we have had two payroll mrs. in a row and maybe -- misses in a row. maybe it pushes it to jackson hole in august. it is inevitable that conversation has to happen. even when you hear things from the treasury secretary, there almost kind of insight to give the fed covered that it is ok to normalize policy because conditions are better. there is still a gap. the unemployment rate is still about 1.6 percentage points above what is considered the natural rate of unemployment. and theu6 is about 6.5 percentage points above. g thatap t --hat gap is closing.
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it becomes hard to justify that as the economy fully reopens goes back to full capacity. matt: the interesting thing to me, or making a parallel between now and where we were in 2010 42013 was the taper tantrum. the point being we had this earnings driven rally on the s&p from 1000 to 3000 basically and you see that as ahead of us after possibly a correction, possibly not. jurrien: we are just passing the baton, if you will. this happens all the time. price bottoms when the market gets oversold and too much bad news has been discounted. we saw that last march and march 2009, basically in every cyclical bear market bottom. the initial phase of the rally comes because the fed is pumping money into the system. you get that evaluation driven rally where the worst stocks are
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going up the fast is because they've gone down the most. so companies with bad balance sheets, for instance. delta, the rate of change of pe starts to beat. the delta of the rate that or the rate of change bottoms. and the two flip over. we are at the point where they are flipping over. same thing with april 2010 when qe 1 right now. --ran out. we don't know what will happen a full on taper pushes the tenure north of 2%, which -- that is not a prediction but let's say if it did and the fed then decided we can't afford rates above 2% or 2.5%, maybe we get another round of qe to try to keep rates low. that is the chess game, not right now. matt: how much does inflation matter?
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i stumbled across a chart this morning that really shocked me and basically just poor pce, the jump we have seen over the last few months is pretty impressive. i did not put this chart in log yet. i'm asking their new york city chart producer to do that for tom. we have not seen this kind of job in core pce in the last -- since i did my ged in 1991. roger poodle who wrote about the death of inflation back then said we could be at that beginning of a sea change now. what are your views on inflation? jurrien: that is the big conversation we are all having here among my colleagues at fidelity and everyone else is as well. we know we have transitory inflation. by definition, it is transitory just from the rate of change affect aspect because you always
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have to look at the level and the flow. we know the flow -- a mathematical sort of certainty almost. that rate of change will peak us some point in the next few months and that it will come down. the question is, what is the come down to? if it wasn't -- it went from one to five and two and goes back up to four, at that point you start to get the level of espousing at a higher point. you start to see those higher highs and higher lows. that is what we saw mid 1960's into the early 1970's. i don't to draw that parallel because the 1970's were not pleasant, but for the market, if rates are rising because inflation is rising, i think both the bond market, the stock market, the fed will be ok.
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energy financials materials, industrials are all very positively correlated to changes in the five year yield in the consumer staples -- and the consumer staples. there will be winners and losers. that is what the market is figuring out. ultimately from my perspective, the big question is, if inflation does become entrenched , that is going to undermine the 60/40 paradigm because at that point the 40 is no longer going to be negatively poor related does correlated and they would -- correlated and then we need to start tinkering. tom: jurrien timmer, thank you. lisa, i look at where we are with the fidelity mantra and a really wonder about equity forward, do you go over
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diversified, do you go more focused diversified like years ago or even the fidelity 50 fund? huge debate about this. lisa: a lot of people have been calling for that death of that 60/40 portfolio for some time yet it has been consistent. i do what what people so we are entering a new inflationary regime, what is changed demographically from a debt load perspective, innovation perspective that can lead to that kind of inflation? right now the market is buying that story but -- matt: modern monetary theory. lisa: but we are not necessarily saying that what the velocity of money. not with respect to wages. not say where not going to. tom, to me this is one of the questions. tom: to me it is fascinating. so much of this is about what you do with your portfolio ford given all of the easy money that
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has been made for a select few. chair yellen still active as secretary yellen and his flesh over the weekend in a new headline out from secretary yellen here at a summit, select usa seven, is economy transitioning to a pre-pandemic state. same for matt miller, transitioning from a pre-pandemic state. stay with us. ♪ >> bank of america president brian moynihan says misspending has surged among the reopening is as much of that is due to leftover stimulus money. he told cbs news spending by customers is up 20% from 2019. i new mexico, president lopez obrador party took the lead and midterm elections for the lower house of congress. a survey indicates will retake a super majority needed to pass
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constitutional reforms. improve, the presidential runoff is still too close to call. the favorite trails. the daughter of alberto fujimori. reaching agreement to buy atlantic aviation. the deal could value the airport services company at about $4.5 billion including debt. atlantic aviation offers hangar space, aircraft maintenance, and other services. shares of tesla are lower. that called off plans to build a model s plus, the longer-range version of its high-end list of elon musk tweeted it will be canceled because it is "just so good." one of the biggest leveraged buyout of all time, if they reach an agreement to buy medical supply company list of bloomberg has learned the transaction is valued at more
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via social network mechanisms, that really allows for things that are inflammatory, things that seem more challenging, things that seem more dangerous better yet not fact-based to really spread like wildfire. tom: a briefing on the pandemic. we continue that story. we welcome you all. we have futures red and green on the screen. the vix, i'm going to call it stasis. the headline statistic to me four digits, 1.5789 on the 10 year yield. that is extraordinary pretty measurement -- for any measurement. brent crude, 71 .48. joining us now, bloomberg school of public health. over the weekend, joshua, i was
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shocked at the medical statistics for the hospitalization of teens with covid. the idea that 30% are in intensive care, 5% are on a ventilator, as well. describe covid and kids. what does it look like? >> it looks -- it can look like covid in adults. it is less likely to look like covid in adults. but adolescence can absolutely get sick and when they do, can be quite serious. what we're seeing is the variants that have emerged appeared to be more likely to get kids sick and potentially get them sicker. the idea that, well, this is the common cold in adolescence, is not necessarily true. if you think about just in general how risk-averse we are for kids, we don't want our kids to face even a small risk of a catastrophic outcome. it does make sense to vaccinate
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given where we are right now. tom: does the vaccination trend for kids look the same as adults? is there a nuance? >> i think it is a little early to say too much about where we are but i think there will probably be regional differences. i think it is important to build parents confidence first, have a lot of kids vaccinated and have them tell their friends and generally get word-of-mouth going and other things in order to get people confident about vaccinating their kids. it is also important for the federal government to be updating people on the safety of the vaccine for kids, just like they were doing for adults. lisa: what is the threshold for moving into a post-pandemic reality were we treat covid like the flu? >> i think we are still a little bit away from that.
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i would like to see there to be so much vaccination that, really, the number of cases and the risk is hopefully about an average flu season or less. that would be then you could treat it like the flu but we are not at all near that point. the projections are if we don't vaccinate more people, we will have many, many more people sick and a lot of people dying, far in excess of the flu. we're going to have to keep treating this like it is until we get to that point. lisa: what do you say to people who are sick of this who want to move on with their lives, went to see people travel? you are seeing people refusing to wear masks. you can see the virus counts are trending lower. what is the risk of losing credibility with the public by hammering on the ongoing social distancing measures you say are prudent in order to get the virus levels down to a level where we can move beyond? >> i think the social distancing
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and mask measures should reflect the state of the pandemic in a particular region. if there are no cases, there is not a need to have a mask mandate, for example. but i think at the same time, the concept that it could come back should not be some sort of crazy thing to say because it could come back. the way we keep her from coming back when the weather gets cool, would people come together come is through vaccination. so i think the focus as the cases come down, continuing to make the case for vaccination. in the and, that is just the way it is. we can't -- the virus is dies just emphasize what we can. matt: he could come back stronger and more dangerous? this is my concern with the
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anti- vaxxers those who don't want to get vaccinated for whatever reason could pose a danger still to the majority of people who do get vaccinated in that they could carry this virus and allow it to mutate into something that ends up overcoming the efficacy of the pfizer and biontech vaccines. >> and a theory that is possible, but i think it is terrible if they themselves and others who have been misled and have not gotten vaccinated get sick of and that is basically a sure bet you happen if we have a major surge again. one of the things from the very beginning of the pandemic, every time cases went on, there were people declaring victory. now cases are going way down, so it is extra tempting to declare victory. but we are not in that spot yet and we have to find ways to communicate -- both, yes, we are
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in a better spot, we can do more now, but if we want to continue to be improving and not risk a problem in the fall, we have to continue to courage vaccination and get the numbers up to a level where we shut the door on the virus. tom: doctor, they much, with johns hopkins. it is an extraordinary headline. it is a headline of courage, a headline frankly of surprise. jeffrey bezos with his brother will travel into space. they will be going on new shepherd named after the great alan shepard and they're looking for someone to go with them. there's a whole thing on the blue origin website where you can pony up a fee. we want to announce the matthew miller fund to put matt miller
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into space. we would like to say keep him there. [laughter] i know you're into cars and all that, but this is something that this guy is going to go up there. matt: to me it is unbelievable because he is worth 186.8 billion dollars. he alone, not even including the fortune of his ex-wife come is the richest man in the entire world over must come over base, over buffett and he is going to risk that fortune. tom: they go up to apogee. lisa: tom just try to send you to space and keep you there. matt: i am ready and willing. lisa: about the idea of recreational space travel. how close are we to that moment? tom: we're going to find out.
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♪ >> it's hard to have much of an inflation problem if wages are still quiet going forward. >> a lot of people aren't going back into the jobs market. >> people will get more comfortable coming back to work, but they are demanding more wages to do it. >> the market is too complacent about the fed not even talking about talking about tapering. >> we are still awash with excess liquidity, and that helps support a lot of valuation. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. on television, on radio, a simulcast on a monday. really easy, conceptual ideas out there. g7 trading this, voting rights that. in the market, i've got to say, i've got a 1.57% yield. that is different from five days
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