caroline: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, i am caroline hyde. joe: i am joe weisenthal. romaine: rounding out the best anchor trio in television, i am romaine bostick. the s&p down, the russell 2000 outperformed. joe: the question is, "what'd you miss?" caroline: on the surface, a pretty quiet day in the market.

you might have missed two moves. lumber prices sliding again. the historic rally continuing to backtrack. sawmills appear to be catching up with intense homebuilder demand. you may have also missed asset stumbling in peru as results in sunday's election showed a leftist candidate with an edge. we are going to start with the headline. let's take it back to the meme stocks. joe: extraordinary day for biogen, having got that historic therapy approved. the 8% move. pretty extraordinary. it had been up i think around 50% early in the day. amc, 15%, whatever, kind of standard move. [laughter] for more, let's bring in bloomberg cross-asset reporter

katie greifeld. biogen and amc but overall one of the quieter days in a while. katie: not a lot happened. cross-asset volatility really taking a nosedive. stocks, bonds, currencies. it feels like nothing is happening. it is nice to have some data to back that up. some signs that maybe some worry is building. the bond market is still pricing in a move, maybe the fed unveiled some kind of tapering strategy at jackson hole in august. stocks, the index that tracks the money put on the s&p 500 index. it is close to its second highest level ever. last time it was near this level was the end of 2018. all the makings of a powder keg. romaine: dig a little bit deeper here. you have the index on your screen here. when we talk about the potential

for the fed to move. they have got to move, they have got to do something in our lifetime, right? the idea, is the market price for that right now? katie: we will see. the bond market still standing firm, may be august, maybe jackson hole. even as you look to friday, that jobs report, it was fine, it was a solid report. the bond market still signaling that may be august. caroline: the goldilocks scenario, the jobs number seems to indicate what the fed is up to. this cheap money, and people still looking to put it into crypto? katie: bitcoin really not doing much, kind of trading sideways. i think it was down a little bit today. it feels like more of the money -- more of the retail money has been rotating from crypto into

the meme stocks. if you look at amc today, that kind of validates that thesis. joe: eventually, don't some people cash out and say, i am making a bunch of money. katie: that is what we keep waiting for. the whole theory was that once the economy starts reopening, people have money to spend on plane tickets and restaurants, you would see this rotation tracking the retail money arounn end. so far, it does not look that way. the meme stocks bloomberg tracks, back to levels we have not seen since march or february. caroline: good time for robinhood to still be in the public market. coming up, we will be digging into some of the areas we did not discuss earlier. peruvian asset stumbling today

on election uncertainty. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪

romaine: we were just discussing the overall quiet equity markets here in the u.s. in latin america, that is not necessarily the case. in peru, election uncertainty from yesterday's vote caused assets to fall pretty much across the board. joe: elections ongoing but it does appear, there are some speculations they left candidate

-- it has been weak generally lately, week today. you see it all right there. romaine: what is the redline? that is doing the worst. joe: joining us with more, state street emerging-market strategist emily weiss. emily, we all have to become proven political experts today. actually, we don't. because we have you here. what is your key take away from what we know so far from the election results and how much does it affect peruvian assets? emily: the key takeaway is that it is very close. the two candidates being voted on are extremely different. what kind of impact and changes can this have on the economy? i think what is notable about having a vote this close is that neither candidate will have a strong mandate to implement

their agenda. we have two vastly different approaches to the economy. between the two of them, right now, just over 50,000 votes separating them. to give a little bit of context, in the 2016 election, over 50,000 votes separating the candidates as well. this is historically an election that can be very close. the only thing that is certain is more uncertainty in the near term. caroline: obviously, sell off abound. does this sort of talk to urban versus countryside? does this play out more broadly as to the political divisions we can see gathering steam across other latin american countries, or is this very much a peruvian story? >> certainly comedy urban-rural divide played a big part. the more rural votes have come in in favor of castillo.

notably, we are seeing this elsewhere as well. mexico had midterm elections also last night. what they saw was in some of the wealthier areas, amlo's party lost support. we are getting a push toward more populist policies in america as there are unfortunately large parts of the population still struggling from impacts of covid. those folks are more likely to vote for policies that will help change their lives hopefully for the better. romaine: let's talk about what this means or may mean for monetary policy. we have already started to see a situation where central banks are not as insync as they would normally be coming out of a crisis. when you look at some of the decisions being made by some of the em central bank, how are we seeing the divergence of what we

would see to be fed policy? emily: we are starting to see that policy divergence kick into gear. on the central bank side, talking about tapering, looking at any sort of fed announcements at jackson hole. on the emerging-market side, inflation has been a real conundrum. it is something we have to watch given that emerging markets do not have the same luxury of waiting it out to see if these inflation pressures are transitory. given that we are starting to see the more entrenched numbers rising on the year-over-year, we have seen moves and likely we will see more in brazil and russia. even in poland, hungary, the czech republic, all sort of seeing those inflation pressures coming through. also, there is this divergence within em, where countries will

diversify policy faster, and other countries, notably major countries in asia, will be slower to normalize policy. joe: this always brings a big question whenever we talk about em and these idiosyncratic things, through the elections in mexico, inflation conditions in mexico, and sometimes it seems that all the vm trades relative to the fed, a lot of the commodities we talk about. how much do these things matter for investors rather than getting the big macro correct? emily: a big macro call -- now, we are in a slightly different environment. the timeframe is a time when the goal -- when the global recovery

starts to pick up and went the fed starts to renew a conversation. this provides more leeway, starting to pick winners and losers that will outperform the rest of the complex rather than just looking how the whole conglomerate of countries moves against the dollar. caroline: interesting. just looking at the emerging-market headlines, emerging-market stocks in pole position to gain as the world reopens. there are also taper tantrum woes. which do you think it will be? will it be, this is the time for emerging markets to shine? or how the fed responds and we will be nervous to that point? emily: i am more in the first camp as seeing this as a good time for risk sentiment. the tapir is something we have

to keep in mind. i think a point that another frequent guest on the show has made, it does not necessarily have to be a huge negative for emerging markets this time around. the point i have just made around more hawkish monetary policy is more different this time around. additionally, emerging markets are in better shape fundamentally in terms of current account balances, exports, terms of trade. going into this sort of area nowhere we just had a crisis that left emerging markets undervalued and under positioned. when you have that combination, we saw that earlier this week when even when we had some intermediate dollar strength, we have not seen this massive selloff. romaine: with some of the debt situation, there still seems to be some uncertainty particularly

in latin america with regards to how that gets sorted out, right? emily: absolutely. columbia is an example of that. bringing in more revenue to address some of the programs around covid and that unfortunately developed into protests and a sovereign rating downgrade. certainly other things and navigating those waters will be tricky. romaine: emerging-market strategist over at state street. coming up, we will talk about how the u.s. ran out of homes for sale. is that true? this sounds like a joe headline? we will be joined to explain how that all means -- to explain what that all means. this is bloomberg. ♪

caroline: a month or so ago on the show, we were doing plenty of pieces about an incredible rally in lumber prices. now, may, go away. joe: no one wants that. it may have peaked. the middle of may, everyone was talking about lumber all the time. now, people talk about it less because it has gone down. still elevated compared to a year ago but on a bit of a losing streak. maybe signaling some of the easing. for more, let's bring in zanda chief economist allie wolf. lumber is just one indicator.

in your view, and you really track housing at a granular level, do you see signs that this red-hot market is thawing a little bit? i don't know about red-hot thaws, i think that is a cold thing. allie: good to talk to you again. i think the way you should look at the housing market, and went from 150 miles per hour to 120. it is softer than the past couple of times we have spoken but it is still a very strong housing market. romaine: it is a very strong housing market. a lot of folks in this room can attest that. no names here. but i am curious, when we talk about whether builders are sort of rising to meet demand or where there are these elongated schedules where they sell them, wait until they get the next materials, is that still sort of the playbook for these companies? allie: the answer to that is

really both. we have builders who have bought a lot of land and over the next 6-36 months, those homes will come to the market and they feel rising up to meet the demand you are talkabout. but we still have the longer build cycles, the issues from the supply chain to the labor side to the government side that is holding overall building back. an interesting shift we are seeing is that the building costs are not coming down. still, a huge pain point for the builders to the point that we are seeing a strategy shift. we have these leaders of homebuilders across the country, 36% of them saying they are shifting their strategy to build more spect because at least you have a better handle on your costs before you go to market.

caroline: what about prefab? has anyone played well, been able to hedge appropriately and lock in prices? allie: the prefab market is a fun one to watch. in theory, it is this great idea. you are efficient, you are able to use the products really well. you can use recycled products. you can do it at all different times of a year. that is a problem in parts of the country where you have to slow down buildings when it gets colder or wetter. there are some countries who do prefab well but they are running into skilled labor problems and they don't have factories to be able to build the homes quick enough. i think the interesting thing at least from my research on prefab, they may be a little bit more efficient but these homes will not necessarily be cheaper. joe: another point you made in

your research, just the sheer -- cities are being taxed, you are allowed to build homes on this new plot of land, there is only so much paperwork, and even that is emerging as one of the main bottlenecks in this area. ali: i know the national association of homebuilders has data on this as well, that not only is it taking longer for cities to work through those permits, but they are also getting more expensive. when we talk about construction costs, we have always talked about all the things you can think of easily. but it is also the issue you are seeing on the government side as well. romaine: let's go back to this idea, let's assume we get past some of these price pressures, whether it is lumber, wages. when you get past this, do you return to some kind of seasonal

normal in the housing market or are these structural changes that will stick with us? ali: from a builders point of view, let's say that their costs have come down. they are unlikely to drop their current prices. they may be smart with how they build homes in the future. but if they drop a price of an actively selling community and they still have people in backlogs, that creates a vicious cycle. we don't expect prices at least for active communities to come down. in the future, may be. selling season. i am sure you remember before 2020, there was a spring selling season where people would rush to buy homes before school so they could get settled. i was not such a big thing last year. we saw home sales continue strong through the end of the year. i think that will make our comp

really strong this year if we go back to a normal pattern. caroline: i am trying to work out how much of who is staying in the suburbs, who isn't? who is coming back to the city, who is in the echo even now, getting guidance of certain corporate's, sticking to the coming yes, you can work from home or not. how are you seeing these decisions impact the decision-making process of those who are buying? ali: it is such an important question. we have talked before about the ability to work from home is one of the reasons people have been willing to move further away. before the pandemic, suburbs are already popular. it was just 11-30 minutes from downtown versus the further out locations. when we look at the work from home trends, we had a client hire us to look into this and we went through each of their markets, the top employers. to what extent have they come out and said what model they

will do? it did seem from the markets we looked at that the hybrid model is more likely here to stay. if you still are going back three days a week when you did not think you were going back at all, people will be more inclined to move closer. joe: ali wolf, zanda chief economist. here in more expensive conversation on the odd lots podcast. check it out. romaine: absolute glamour shot. unfortunately, with caroline back, you are now only the third best looking person. caroline: can we do our photo shoot now? joe: let's do it. romaine: weren't we supposed to do one like a year and a half ago? joe: what happened. caroline: just a small thing,

oceans and the way and a pandemic. joe: "bloomberg technology" is next. romaine: have a great evening. this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> from the heart of where innovation, money, and power collide, in silicon valley and beyond, this is "bloomberg technology" with emily chang. emily: i am emily chang in san francisco and this is "bloomberg technology." coming up, the biggest reveals from apple's worldwide developers conference including updates to