getting a big spike in inflation. >> the market is too complacent about the fed has been talking about tapering. >> it's going to be hard for any central bank to be more dovish than the fed is. >> it's hard for the fed to maintain the degree of accommodation when the output gap is closing fairly rapidly. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance" on radio, on television today, an eventful tuesday. romaine bostick in for jonathan ferro -- matt miller in for matt miller. romaine bostick is scheduled to be with us. that is a good and beautiful thing. alisa, i am looking at the clear and present market action now. people want to own the tenure yield which is driving the yield lower. lisa: the great online a longer-term inflation expectations, that is what we

are seeing in markets, that is what pushing is pushing stock prices to near record highs. that is a question -- there's a question of how long this trend will be with a fear sitting debate between the economics profession on whether the fed is taking the right approach or risking a policy error. tom: something we heard yesterday and continues today, the elegance of the five-year inflation-adjusted yield. lower 10 year yield, great, but the five-year real yield won't budge, and it is a elegant chart -- an elegant chart. it does not want to move to a lesser negative number. lisa: how much is it counting fed continuing its on purchases for a longer period of time versus just low inflationary environment? it's amazing to see how much of the recent issuance of the u.s. debt sales the federal reserve picked up. tom: matt miller, do your jonathan ferro imitation. you have to move your hands like pharaoh does. we miss him, but do your imitation -- ferro does.

we miss him, but do your imitation of the ecb. all of a sudden the ecb is upon us. matt: the ecb will it be -- will be a credit will interesting. not only are they expected to raise forecast for growth and inflation, they may change their language around their inflation targets, and that could be key. until now, the target has been up to but less than 2%, and they might drop to less than part of that, taking a cue from the fed and looking to overshoot. tom: it's amazing the moving parts. there's a lot of other stories out of washington and london as well. we are really going to focus on the equity markets, and ben laidler with us and moments from etoro. matt miller, jump in on foreign exchange let's begin with bitcoin as a currency alternative. 32,000 896, what is that --

32,890 six dollars, what is the crisis level on bi -- bitcoin itself? tom: if the fed found a way to crack -- $32,896, what is the crisis level on bitcoin itself? matt: people ignorant of how bitcoin works is learning it is very traceable and it is easy for anyone to find out where it is. getting out of there is the problem. tom: let's call it a case of $32,000. $29,000 was the memory from a few days ago. brent crude is pretty much stasis around, but i want to focus on the structure lisa and i talked about. you look at the world bank. lisa: yeah, publishing its latest global economic report coming out of 9:30. in january, they downgraded expectation for global growth based on the fact there were resurgence is, flareups of the virus in verio parse -- in various parts of the developing

world. we continue to see those and a two tier economy developing markets getting far ahead but not on the same pace while the developing world struggles to overcome the pandemic. how much will that feature into a slower potential growth? 10:00 a.m., this is interesting, the april u.s. job opening survey. this is a key leading indicator of just how quickly the jobs market is getting back on track. you've seen the openings rise faster than the supply of workers to be able to come back in and take the jobs. tentacle icam, and i want to get to this because it addresses something matt miller -- 10:00 a.m., i want to get to this because it was addressing something matt miller was saying, the fact the bitcoin ceo is testifying before a senate committee. the government said they recouped $.3 million of the ransomware fee colonial paid to reopen its pipeline, throwing into focus, matt said, the reason the price is lower is because people realize it is a tradable asset.

another reason, this might heighten regulatory scrutiny if this is the currency in which you end up doing a lot of these ransomware's or having some of this illicit behavior. there's a concern this is really a tool for nefarious action. matt: should have just done it with dollars. with cash. lisa: i knew you would say that, but i will say this, not when you are doing it intercontinental he, not when you're doing it digitally. there's a question about regulatory scrutiny and what that means longer-term for the prospects of the likes of bitcoin. tom: we will see on that, thank you. lots to talk about this morning. ben laidler joins us with etoro. i want to get to the equity markets, but ben, i like how you take your way to healthy breakfast index of 54%. tell us about the breakfast index and how it goes into the commodity call. >> commodities outside of crypto

is the best performing si class this year, and i think it continues to do well. you have this perfect combination of bullish commodities, tight supply, disruption, noninvestment there, and obviously growth rebounding led by china, the biggest influencer in the world, came out of the crisis early. but now, really broadening. put those two together in the whole commodity indexes doing well, and the cost of your breakfast, depending on where you choose to eat for breakfast, that has a lot of impact. if you are the biggest producer in the world, that's great. if you are more in em, that is not so great. broadly, this narrative [indiscernible] tom: i looked at the footnotes and the laidler indexes is way

too healthy for me having oats and barley. the keene index, it is weighted, and that index includes trix, tang. lisa: mine would be tang mimosas to bloody mary. ben, please save us. [laughter] there's a question going forward about what is driving the equity riley -- rally higher. people are getting used to the idea that the fed is perhaps correct, perhaps inflation will be transitory, and we will go back to a low growth regime that is a goldilocks scenario. at what point to these low yields undermine the argument for equities, because it suggests growth is not sufficient to sustain these kinds of earnings growth? ben: i think the earnings and growth story has a long way to run here. you're talking about vaccinations and things earlier

on. global vaccination rate is 11%-12%, lockdown index is 50% globally, relative to zero pre-pandemic. i think the reopening has a long way to go. we will get world bank talking about the forecast today with the ocd last week, your medic increases to their forecast. i think that is the narrative, the world will keep reopening, these gdp forecasts are still too low, and that is driving earnings. we talk about bond yields and high valuations, that will probably come down, that is your risk, but the greatest policy is earnings growth. earnings growth continues on the upside. you'll get maybe 40% this year. i think that is consensus. look at next year, consensus says you will only get 10% globally. really? with 4.5 gdp growth and current inflation? i think we are still underestimating earnings growth and that will take a market higher and that is your insurance policy for the biggest

risk out there, low valuations when the fed does tighten. it's just when and how much. matt: the question is how much -- the question is what happens when the fed does tighten. a bloomberg opinion piece was written yesterday in where it says they will have to push the economy to overheat now. they will have to tighten later and could bring on a full-blown recession. are you concerned about that? ben: i think we have price a lot of this in. we certainly price a policy mistake in, and i'm not sure the fed will make that, but i'm sure we have priced the tapering in and bursts of initial that highs. look at where the expectations are for next year, consensus is that we get a high next year. inflation expectation is already sort of moved up. we have the bond market tantrum in the first quarter, and in percentage terms, probably the biggest move on bond yields in living memory, and equities are up.

a lot of people talk about the 2016 taper tantrum, that was the best year for equities in the decade. they rallied another 30% after seeing 5%. i think having this conversation, markets have incorporated quite a lot of this already. i do think valuations will come down, valuations is the outlier. has bond yields rise, that will come down. as i said earlier, -- as bond yields rise, that will come down. as i said earlier, still under appreciated earnings recovery coming through. tom: you're far too modest to mention a 6% or a percent, whatever the move is in the market getting you to the double digits for 2021, which is the production of double-digit growth. so far, looks like on the edge of jeannie city -- geniosity. the focus we had this morning,

coming up in the equity markets, is a gross underestimation. the gloom out there, the tentativeness in this bull market. lisa: there is a concern things are not resilient to some sort of exhaustion this shock. when people -- arjun s -- of shock. we are getting signs multiple global websites are shown off-line, including the u.k. government website. we are getting more news on this, but also crossing an tandem is jbs, the meat processing company, rebuffed calls earlier to boost cyber spending, according to ex-employees reported by bloomberg, because they did not see the near term profitability of it. all of this highlighting the potential risks of cybercrime in an increasingly cyber world. tom: matt miller, what you see in europe? what are you watching? matt: i'm watching the euro against the pound, looks like he

gained legs and i can finally afford the ducati i have been looking at in sheffield. tom: don't sell the bitcoin. matt in for jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene futures are red and green on the screen. good morning. ♪ >> with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. a senate investigation of the january 6 the salt on the capito l details mistakes by the government, military, and law enforcement. a report says there was a lack of training and preparation for capitol police who were overwhelmed by the rights -- writers -- rioters. president biden talks with republicans on his infrastructure plan and appear to have stalled. shelley moore capito says she is bringing no new counter offer to the meeting with the president today. he rejected the latest proposal last week. meanwhile, senator mitt romney

says six senators are ready to step forward with an alternative. he's ready to unveil their plan to a bigger group of senators. president biden has come out with a plan to secure critical supply chains and products ranging from medicine to microchips. the task force will focus on supply and demand mismatches and deal with near-term bottlenecks that could affect the economic recovery. the administration is also considering an investigation that could result in tariffs on certain imports. the european union is ready to consider tougher retaliatory measures against the u.k. over break the policy. on northern ireland, the eu says the u.k. is not living up to its obligations. it has been a major flashpoint since the u.k. click the desk with the block at the start of the year, leading to violent protests of border checks and customs paperworks with trade crossing the irish state. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on "bloomberg quicktake," powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta, this is bloomberg.

♪

>> earlier today, the department

of justice found and recaptured the majority of the ransom colonial paid to the darkside network in the wake of last month's ransomware attack. tom: lisa monico, the deputy attorney general from the u.s. there. glad you are on old media on reno -- radio and television, because their outages -- because there are outages worldwide. i go to the basic idea the united kingdom government website is down, according to the bbc, and there is a shocking one from amazon. lisa: the idea web services is also affected. the new york times website also down. these are broad-based -- amazon web service is completely down as well as the u.k. government website according to bbc. reddit also having issues, raising questions first of all what is causing this outage was second, how quickly they can get things back online and what types of international

consequences that could be, considering how much work has been moved to web services, to cloud services in the wake of the pandemic. tom: a link is to the digital world and we rip up that script. jonathan ferro is off today, and joining us as martin shanker, our bloomberg editor-at-large and editor of cyber and old technology. marty, this is extraordinary and falls into the announcement by president barden -- president biden, not so much out of rare earth metals, hope i pronounce that right, but it is about a broader losing of control of our global logistical system, whether it is cyber, whether it is as lisa mentioned, down detector reporting these outages , and we have spotify and twittered from down detector. it is a greater thing than that, losing control of the justice of the world. marty: and to a certain extent,

you can thank donald trump for that. when he disrupted the global relationships around the world, he exposed real issues about our dependence area -- dependency on outside sources for strategic materials. so joe biden has decided he has got to address it somehow, and his declaration yesterday does that. tom: markets move on this, futures negative nine, dow futures at -140. lisa: if you look at fund manager surveys, the wall of worry is increasingly skewed to a potential cyber risk. marty, what are specific actions congress is taking not just with respect to some of the recent ransomware attack's we have seen on colonial, jbs, but beyond that to ensure the infrastructure of the nation really is more immune to some of these tax. marty: it is clear that there is bipartisan support for

substantial increase in spending for cybersecurity, but it is caught up in this whole stimulus discussion that is basically divided between democrats and republicans. what they're going to have to do is carve out a specific fix for cybersecurity and get it passed. matt: we have a great editorial on opin go that shows the military is spending so much money, talking hundreds of billions of dollars on legacy weapons systems that just are not as useful anymore. they need to re-appropriate that money to fight threats like this. marty: yeah, and matt, i hesitate to use the analogy, but turning the battleship around, the traditional military industrial complex and the spending putting the hardware versus software is something that has to be addressed. it is not going to be easy. matt: what is the possibility

this white house can push for military spending on new age weapons? certainly they don't want to come across as aggressive. they seem to want -- they seem like they would want to come across as the opposite of the trump administration. marty: you would think so, and maybe this morning's cyberattack , if that is in fact what it is, will energize people to actually sit down and work out a new way of approaching the security of the united states. and frankly, the world. this is not good for anyone. tom: let's get back on track to the zeitgeist of the moment, the zeitgeist in washington as troops come back june 7, it is over for the biden administration and is an i -- is in a gridlock. marty: the new gridlock is

something we talked about in terms of the center of both the democrats and republicans and where they land in terms of getting policy done is going to be critical. we are talking about joe manchin and christine cinema, those kind of people. lisa: we talk about how a number of technological changes have gotten accelerated, including cloud computing, moving everyone's information to the cloud. that is why today's announcement that amazon web services, one of the biggest cloud providers, is down. this is according to reports. there is a question of whether this becomes treated like a utility by the government, given that it is increasingly essential to the way businesses operate. marty: it is interesting. we talk about colonial pipeline, we talk about the texas hack, and when the u.s. supply, critical supply, depends on a single facility, if that goes

down, it exposes the lack of any kind of backup, which is critical for the economy to work. tom: what is great about this is only emily wilkins could be on top of the story. marty: oh yeah. bloomberg.com is down she reports. marty: she did. tom: her reporting is error 503, service unavailable. [laughter] marty: it's obvious that there is an extraordinary down age -- downage and internet. tom: what's interesting to me is it has got to come back to service. by no means are you an expert but you center on google and amazon in them. marty: and if they can be hacked, no one is safe. tom: giving you full team coverage on this downage. lisa: tang mimosas?

[laughter] tom: we make jokes about it, but this is serious. we have never seen this. lisa: this is a huge issue, the idea of amazon rebbe services, reddit, government websites, the "new york times," a lot of this central news services and infrastructure of the way people do business being interrupted. we don't understand exactly at this point exactly what was behind it. we do not know if it was something the various or unintentional. nonetheless, this highlights the risk of cyber disruptions of any kind in a world increasingly digital. tom: yield comes in in 1.56 and we are down to 1.5 four, an extraordinary drop of two basis points in 10 year yield. they will blame the russians, blame the east europeans, blame matt miller in germany. who do we blame? matt: they definitely blame the russians. any chance we get, if a crime is committed by somebody in and around russia, we always mention that whenever we mention the name of the group. i will say bloomberg.com, i am watching us without a three

second delay, and when i get home, i hope microsoft is still up. i want to play some games next are sly. tom: nice you got in there with mr. shanker onset. matt miller earnestly working from home in his six hour day. stay with us. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪

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tom: bloomberg surveillance, and an historic "bloomberg surveillance." there is a digital outage across america. it appears that germany, where matt miller is, is ok. lisa, we have markets moving, equities red and green on the screen, now solid. -11 on spx. critical for me, this digital outage and rumors and reality of it has moved the 10 year yield down two basis points. lisa: in some ways, i am not surprised there is not a bigger move. we don't know exactly what is behind this. there are reports fastly is down and they run a content delivery that pushes data quickly around the internet so businesses can help consumers shop or online. it's basically an intermediary.

it is really raising a question about how essential some of the services are. aws, one of the main cloud servicing providers, if it really is down, what kind of businesses are getting disrupted and what kind of potential ramifications are there? tom: a fluid scene. bloomberg.com i brought up moments ago on our screen. we did lose it five minutes ago, it was not working. matt miller is in germany. you have not seen any outages, have you? matt: i have not. i am watching you on delay, on my computer screen right now, so bloomberg.com/tv is still broadcasting us live. i took a look at the "new york times" for lisa's sake, it is working here as well. twitter is up, i'm still getting rude comments about my tie, so everything seems to be working well. lisa: [laughter] tom: very clearly here, twitter was working for us moments ago. i get an error 503 service unavailable on the "new york times". we will monitor this -- "new york times."

we will monitor this as we can. our headline team is working on this, getting multiple sources, including techcrunch is already waited. dow futures, -1.51. let's try to get back on track with the american economy. we do this with sarah house, wells fargo corporate investment bank senior economist. i think we are covering this digital story to bash story fairly well. if you -- have you readjusted q3 and q4 adjustments? sarah: if you look at the overall landscape in the u.s., i think we have seen supply issues become more acute in recent months. but these problems today, these issues around getting parts and materials, depleted inventory, the slow return of labor, that draws out the boom in growth we are seeing. we think that, even as you see

growth moderate through the second half of the year, we are still looking at a boom economy as inventories are rebuilt, as workers return and there's a solid pace of labor income over the next year. tom: it's not in your territory but in chapter three of all of the text books we studied, the yield is going lower. why are we having a boom economy? sarah: i think it comes down to what the fed has been saying in their patient stance when it comes to monetary policy. even as we have seen flare up of inflation, there is still -- they are still very much focused on the transitory aspect. when we look at the outlook for inflation, we do think it will go to some extent. there's questions of it might be transitory, but how

high and how long. i think the drivers are well understood. they are largely coming from the supply bottlenecks that will eventually abate, as well as service sectors very much tied it to the reopening. i think that understanding has kept yields and check. lisa: thank you for keeping tom and check with the transitory drinking game. we have to talk a little bit about the latest news, the idea of all of these outages. we do not know how long this will last. we do not know what is behind this, but it raises a question about the fragility of where we are in markets, how priced to perfection, what kind of disruptions could create an economic tent not currently price in -- dent not currently priced in. based on your intersection, what is your sense on that on how priced to perfection we are with the market screaming ahead? sarah: i think what we have seen is that the growth expectations are very much priced in. again, i think there is general understanding that the

inflationary pressures that are seeing will abate, but i think we are in a unique period of monetary policy, so the fed's policy stance and their new framework is largely impacted. i think, with that, as we see various stress options and risks, you could see some increase in volatilities. i think the fundamental backdrop remains constructive for the u.s.. lisa: if there is some sort of exogenous shock, at this point, what ammunition does the fed so have to actually give a boost to the economy, given all of the stimulus they have pumped in? sarah: i think where the fed is, it is limited in what they could do if we did have a negative growth shock. i think they would rely more on their communication tools. more recently, we have seen them encz to where the discussion of potentially tapering or at least talking about talking about

tapering, so they could reverse course on that again. while we have already seen extensive amounts of asset purchases, they could increase those even further. i think your basic point is well taken, that they are pretty limited in what else they can do at this point. matt: how important is debt to gdp? if i look back to the year of my creation in 1973, we were only looking at 30% debt to gdp. of course that ramped up after the great financial crisis from 60 to 100, but now we are looking at 130 and heading higher. does that matter? sarah: i think what is more important is the debt service relative -- not necessarily to the gdp, but what is happening in terms of what is helpful income, corporate income, government revenue, and gdp growth.

but when we look at the outright stocks, that is not as big of a focal point is more calm -- focal point, given how low interest rates have trended in recent years. it comes down to the trend service, which is low. the risk is that if we do see interest rates rise, particularly faster then what is expected right now, that could create an issue in the short-term wire the debt service is leading to a pullback in whether it is corporate investment, household spending, etc. matt: i'm just wondering what happens as we look at $6 trillion of fiscal stimulus, $12 trillion of extraordinary fed activity. how much longer can we -- transitory inflation is only unintended consequence, why

don't we keep taking from this magic money tree forever? sarah: i still don't think we fully know how the story ends, but in the meantime, when we are looking at that debt service, i think this does allow us to at least experimental little longer here, and to the extent of what of this is due to growth? are we putting this toward things that were actually improve capacity, improve productivity, and raise the profile of gdp over time, versus is it merely just transferred back? i think right now we see the supports stoke demand, and i think you are seeing some of that pass through, to some extent, to stronger capital spending, which could have beneficial effects to growth, longer-term. tom: sarah house, have to leave

it there with what is going on in the digital space. lisa, barry holds out, at home working on this, and i believe he attends us later this morning. he usually doesn't start his day until 9:15, maybe 9:20, he reports the new york times, bloomberg's back up, and the great distinction of this is aws, amazon web services, sort of versus everything else and particularly google. on twitter, and i have to be careful, the zeitgeist is the twitters off of a google platform and was fine, and a lot of others are off of aws and they were not fine. lisa: there's going to be a lot of postevent analysis. tom: yeah. lisa: and how the infrastructure is -- needs to be short up, given people's reliance on it. when you take a look at the market moves, the one consistent move that has stuck, you say we are seeing the retracement's in

equity, bitcoin is still down. this stems from the idea, what does the digital currency danger if there is threat to the digital structure? tom: matt, weighing on that. lisa: i can feel the energy. [laughter] matt: i think lisa makes a great point. it is a huge threat. a lot of people talk about the fact that post apocalypse, when all you need is water, guns, and bitcoin, you need power and you knew the internet to be able to do it. lisa: and in some ways the entire ecosystem around the entire internet is complicated. that i think is something congress has to explore, what they need to do to shore it up, especially as an increasing number of businesses rely on web services. we are talking about fastly, this intermediary, being -- matt: if i could just -- the problem is an increasing number of businesses are dependent on web services from two companies,

right? from aws and microsoft. if something like the internet computer starts to work, it is a different story. lisa: which starts on systemic appointments -- systemic appointments -- importance. tom: in our digital addiction, let's assume it is better now. we were down for watch, 20 minutes? i was without web services for 20 minutes? matt: my red it was down. tom: how can i possibly -- read it was down -- reddit was downb. tom: how can i possibly trade. lisa: if it's a health care issue where you are doing remote surgery somewhere and you need to get it over. there are a lot of ways where you can see it being a critical time difference. these are things that need to be explored. tom: it's good to have matthew miller with us because the pendulum post-apocalyptic is upon us. [laughter] lisa: we have moved from doom to

gloom to post-apocalyptic realities. tom: how is somebody on the show more gloomy then you? [laughter] lisa: thank you, matt. we appreciate it. tom: matt miller with us for another 20 minutes. futures recovered in a sensible morning. good morning. on radio and tv. ♪ >> with the first word news, i am ritika gupta. multiple websites around the world are experiencing outages as we have been talking about. among them, the "new york times," reddit, and the british government. vastly pushes data -- fastly pushes data across the internet so consumers can shop online or watch videos on apps and websites. ice president kamala harris's morning central americans, do not come to the u.s.. if they do show up, they will be turned away. she is in guatemala as part of

the administration's efforts to address several root causes of immigration from central america. the ceo of the pipeline shut down by hackers testifies before senate committee today. the appearance by colonial pipeline's representative comes a day after the justice department recovered the majority of the bitcoin ransom paid. he's expected to explain why he authorized the payment. the senate could vote as early as today on legislation designed to increase the u.s. competitiveness against china. the bill calls for spending more than 200 billion dollars in domestic semiconductor outputs and increase federal research and development. the threat from china has united republicans and democrats in congress. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on "bloomberg quicktake," powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> what we're seeing is the variants that have emerged

appear to be more likely to get kids sick and potentially get them sicker. the idea that, this is a common cold in adolescence, is not necessarily true. we don't our -- we don't want our kids to face even a small risk of a catastrophic outcome. it does make sense to vaccinate. tom: that's joshua sharfstein there. thank you for the many comets worldwide and across america on our coverage of the digital outage. we have tried to coalesce all of the different flows. i guess it is good news that weird down on spx. we come back to a slight green on the screen. could we say crisis over? [laughter] lisa: it seems to be with the markets are saying and the intermediary, fastly, saying it has been fixed -- fixed. lisa: a lifetime buying opportunity, evidently is what

we are saying. tom: that is what we are seeing on the different sites coming back on. we will continue to cover this with a bit of digital sobriety. right now, matt miller, lisa abramowicz, tom keene. amos should all judge of drums -- amesh adolja. what i see is a fear of the variance, but in every conversation, the variant is in australia, the variant is in some selected part of africa so is the dreaded variant in america? >> there are multiple variance's and -- variants circulating in the united states, but what makes a difference whether it is here, africa, brazil, or even japan is the fact that we have so much of our high risk population vaccinated that these cases of the variant don't necessarily translate into hospitals going into crisis.

that is why we prioritize the vaccine to those individuals most likely to be hospitalized. when you look at the vaccine, even if variants might be problematic or for symptom at a confession, meaning they can even get infected with the vaccine, with what comes to what matters, severe disease and hospitalizations and death, the vaccines are extremely good. that is what the vaccines are meant to do, not drive covid to zero. that will not happen. we are trying to remove the ability of covid to cause a public health crisis. vaccines do that. tom: doctor, i would suggest this is in your global wheelhouse, does good nutrition protect us from a worse outcome from covid? the fact that we are well nutrition to compared to other poorer countries, does that matter? dr. adalja: it does matter in certain aspects. if people have nutrient deficiencies, if people are

vitamin d deficient, they are more likely to have a severe case of covid-19. i would argue even in the united states, we might look good in terms of nutrition, we have an obesity crisis in the united states. i think the fact that most americans are overweight did synergize with covid-19 and get a lot of people sicker than we needed -- then they needed to be if we were not such an obese country. it's important to have proper nutrition but you can have over nutrition and have obesity, which could put your country into a problem when it comes to respiratory infections i covid. lisa: we are at a place where a lot of people, particularly in the united states, are able to get vaccinated if they choose. what is the latest science in terms of wearing a mask, not wearing a mask, what is appropriate for someone vaccinated, and what risk they pose to others in terms of transmitting the virus? dr. adalja: if you are fully vaccinated, you can basically go back to your pre-pandemic life.

breakthrough infections are extremely rare, meaning someone fully vaccinated, it is something that happens .0001% of the time. if you are fully vaccinated, go back to your life. you don't necessarily need to wear mask. there are caveats for those immunosuppressed. i would talk to your physician if you had an organ transplant or chemotherapy about what cautions to take. you as a vaccinated person are not a threat to others. others are not a threat to you. tom: the global index that the world health organization looks at was very constructive last night. that would be 25 thousand plus at fenway park as the red sox took out the marlins. matt: we had 27,000 in catalunya over the weekend, so people are coming back. i want to ask about the kids, amesh.

i know you spent a lot of times at skate parks, hanging out with tony hawk, etc. our anti-baxter's just 40 to 50-year-old people, or is that prevalent among kids as well? dr. adalja: it depends on where you look. children have been getting vaccinated, but this is the early days of vaccination in the 12 to 15 your group, so the early adopters are definitely taking advantage of the fact they can get vaccinated. we see some parents you do not want their children to get vaccinated. the news about that link investigated, the rare myocarditis, that is also making some parents vaccine hesitant. i think it is less important to see vaccine hesitancy in the 12 to 16 or 17-year-old group than it is to see in the adult group, because we know children in general will be less likely to be severely sick with covid-19, and less likely to spread it. i think there is vaccine hesitancy, but which we -- what we are looking at now is the

adult population, where we want to see the needle move. those are the people that will be more likely to be hospitalized, especially getting older, overweight, or any other comorbidities. i think we are on a good trajectory to end this because of the high-risk population, about three quarters fully vaccinated. tom: we have to leave it there. thank you for your continued support in helping us understand this pandemic. dr. adalja there. he is one of the few people that is trying to keep the hospital beat going. he is in the trenches throughout this entire thing. matt: i talked to him yesterday, 7:00 p.m., and he was still in his scrubs in the er, so he is putting in the kind of work that is saving lives. he is on the front lines and really fighting this thing. you've got a had a lot of expect

-- you've got to have a lot of respect. at the same time, i see him on the skate ramp. the guy has talent when it comes to skating. he is a double threat. tom: lisa, what is your update on the schools as we stagger to june? lisa: in the fall, people agree they need to get back in person. dr. amesh adalja saying if you are fully vaccinated, you can go back to your pre-pandemic life. you have some doctors, and the same cam, saying that is not the case and others are saying go ahead. here we go with a really confusing mary had number of rules around masking. tom: as we go to break, let's talk about the digital disruption we have seen this morning. it's an all clear, particularly seen by the markets, from plus one to -12 on futures. we go down to plus two. nasdaq 100 doing better as well today. the 10 year yield is a

barometer, down to a 1.54 and we have split the difference and come back to 1.55 as many of these -- these sites come back up. coming up, our next guest on rates. lisa demanded this interview. good morning. ♪ g. ♪

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♪ >> we still we are in a bull market. >> we are getting a big spike in inflation. >> the market is a little too complacent about the fed not even talking about talking about papering. >> it is going to be hard for any central bank to be as dovish as the fed is. >> it is hard for the fed to maintain the degree of accommodation when the output gap is closing fairly rapidly. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene. "bloomberg surveillance" on radio come on television. a digital outage. we will touch on that in a moment. romaine bostick in for jon ferro this morning. i want to go from the uproar on negative