caroline: from bloomberg's will headquarters in new york by an caroline hyde. joe: i am joe weisenthal. romaine bostick is out today. caroline: a new record high on the s and p. we even saw money move into amc. yields push up five basis points. joe: the question is, "what'd you miss? " with the biden-putin meeting

some might forget. we are all still fretting about inflation, front and center. a survey out today from the new york fed, it rose to an eight year high. restaurants like to bully have had to raise prices on their menu. price pressure could be lessening. a dip in prices from corn to cotton to lumber. it seems as though parts of the commodity spectrum are coming off highs. joe: narrative buster here. not every commodity input good going up right now. one thing that is go up today, stocks. for most of the day, the s&p 500 index was in the red. look at that, heroic gains. i don't know what happened. it counts. they still count it. for more, let's welcome bloomberg news cross-asset reporter katie greifeld. what saved the day?

more buyers than sellers? katie: i think that had something to do with it. tech the way, the nasdaq ended at a record. i think for everyone stock that rose, three stocks fell. not great for us but we did manage to close higher. caroline: meanwhile, is this market crazy? there seems to be a lot of commentary. you did see buying of other areas. amc was up, for example. katie: amc was up, memes were up, crypto was up. treasury yields were up as well. that felt like a little bit closer to normal, especially since you did get that survey from the fed. today, it kind of made sense a little bit. joe: the big story will be that

federal reserve meeting. we're going to get some fresh dots. it is striking, the 10 year yield still below 1.5%. katie: because they have fallen so much, you do have a stable of analysts saying this market is primed for a selloff. jp morgan, they turned bearish. just because this market has rallied so much, and it has felt a little bit out of step with fundamentals, maybe we will get a selloff of some sort. it is all about the dot plot. analysts do expect the median dot to show a lift off, which is different than what we heard three months ago. caroline: we will be talking all about the federal reserve meeting tomorrow. we will be back with katie cry i am sure. turning to the auto sector, some big moves. lordstown motors facing a bumpy

road ahead. the company ceo and cfo promptly resigned. they found evidence of inaccurate statements. joining us from bloomberg's detroit bureau, bureau chief david wells. it is all deja vu for me when you're thing back to nikola, how it's starboard so brightly, then did not. >> these automotive spac's are looking more checkered all the time. a lot of founders leave. that seems to be the least secure job in the auto industry right now. this one has been shaky all along, really. they have had trouble getting the truck out on time. they said they needed to come back for more money. they were hit by ended bird research, the short seller. the preorders he was bragging

about looked pretty shaky as well and the board seems to have concluded the same thing. 100,000 preorders he was bragging about where perhaps overstated and now the ceo and cfo are out. a company that needs more money just to get their truck into production and now they need a new ceo. it is looking pretty rough for them. shares were down 19% today. joe: i get the impression that it is hard to build vehicles. david: elon musk did this. he is probably the first automotive startup to make it, to get several vehicles out, probably since kaiser going all the way back to the 1940's and 1950's. it is really tough to do, especially when it is electric vehicles that do not make great profits and require a lot of cash up front. this makes established automakers look a lot better.

they have established ceos, they have factories. they don't have to do these things that companies like nikola and lordstown are trying to do. caroline: what do we need to look out for now? to the investigations start into what the ceo and cfo have been questioned about doing? what is the next focus point for you? david: there are several red flags snapping in the wind. we do have this investigation. we have a ceo search. the other thing, what really threw the stock into the lurch last week was the company said they do not know if they will have enough money to last 12 months, they do not know if they will have enough money to get their truck to market. here they are trying to raise cash when they don't have a ceo and don't know if they can get their truck to market.

this is the same truck they put into the desert race in baja. there are questions in every aspect of this business, and they are trying to raise money with that story. joe: 40 miles is not bad. last year and the start of this year, an extraordinary amount of interest. obviously, we have seen the whole thing pulled down. are people starting to realize, investors sort of tamping their enthusiasm for every player in this space? david: i think so. you see the people running these company's. steve burns gone from lordstown now. nikola lost its first founder. canoe, another electric vehicle startup, also had its ceo leave the company. there is a lot of turmoil and the ones that are out there. none of them have really shown

they are getting great is this contracts, orders for vans, trucks, that sort of thing. they are competing with the big companies like gm, ford, volkswagen, were putting out news about battery plants, vehicle plants every week. the startups are out there trying to figure out how they are going to gain footing and even enter that market. just he fundamentals, the difficult nature of making vehicles of a vehicles, that is making the story a tougher sell, no question. joe: great reporting. thank you to our own david welch from detroit. coming up, better weather in the u.s. we discussed the latest moves in commodities with scott irwin from the university of illinois. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪

caroline: today, our big focus. we have seen the steady climb. but maybe we are starting to see some rollover in commodities, especially the agricultural parts. wheat, corn. joe: we have been talking about lumber selloffs but also the grains and beans. we see commodities starting to roll over here. grain, wheat, soy all sliding. let's bring in scott irwin, university of illinois at urbana champlain. professor, thank you for joining us. let's start big picture, what is the main contributor to the decline recently that we have

seen? >> we have seen the official u.s. government forecast for precipitation and next week turnabout 5-7 days out. we are looking for some now cooler temperatures, pretty good rain. that really matters because it has been really dry, particularly in iowa, our number one core producing state. the markets are very sensitive as we enter the critical growing period to changes in model forecasts like this. caroline: your perspective on whether this will be an immediate dip, a more sustained selloff of these really lofty levels we have seen hit by the agricultural products. scott: it really depends on whether those rains come through or not. if we get the kind of rains that are forecasted out a week or so, i don't see the market bouncing back quickly. then the next big event will be

at the end of the month when the usda releases their latest survey of the size of planted acreage. joe: the last time we talked to you, one of the themes we were talking about was obviously major chinese buying, a contributor. this huge over stocking essentially. what is the status of that? is that story over? i remember several weeks ago there was some stuff about, let's cool it. scott: there has been some pauses but i think the big story is still china, china, china. right now, the official usda forecast are for 26 million tons of buying for the current marketing year end 26 million buying by china for the next marketing year. the really is not any slowdown.

the news continues to be pretty bullish. caroline: we continue to get some data from china. we know that china has been trying to rein in some of the super cycle in commodities. is there anything they can do to push back on the ramp-up in the food prices at least? scott: not a lot. probably the best thing that can help china is if they get good weather in their summer growing system. and if they get a bumper corn crop. if not, there is probably not a lot they can do. other than just price control. and we know how well that works. joe: we are tying this into the old inflation question. all of these different categories, lumber, grains, copper, each one has its own idiosyncratic story where we can say something specific but all

are going up at the same time and they don't believe it. is there an eventual return to normal prices on the horizon? is this enough explained by weird things going on between the weather, china, things coming out of it, and so forth, that when this moment in time fades a little bit, that we could see prices that resemble historical levels? scott: that is going to happen. it is only a question of the time. they don't stay forever at these type of lofty levels. the smart players are trying to figure out the timing of when that drop is going to occur. i think today's price action shows you just how volatile ealing with those expectations can be. because this is just a change in

weather forecast basically out 5-7 days. we are in for a bumpy ride as the market tries to calibrate that. caroline: what do you look at? scott: it is really a combination of anything that is a significant fact on production prospects. acreage or yield. the reason why the volatility is so high, we are at what economists call the highly nonlinear pricing curve for grain. small changes in projections of production can have really large impact on prices. that is what we saw today. caroline: i want to thank you. always great to have your kn ow-how when it comes to these market's. coming, consumer spending, we break it down with a scientist

at arbor research and trading. this is bloomberg. ♪

caroline: just now, we were focusing on inflation, price pressures coming from commodities. tomorrow, we will get u.s. retail sales data. economists forecasting a drop. that's because they are coming down from sky high, right? joe: this incredible surge in spending, a lot from the stimulus checks. expecting a 0.7% decline. you can see how choppy that it is. joining us with more insight, ben breitholtz, researcher at arbor research and trading. you look at google searches, you scan hundreds of thousands, categorize them into different areas. shopping, consumption when

traveling. you say you are starting to see signs that after he tore at pace of shopping coming out of the lockdowns, starting to see a little bit of cooling off. ben: correct. a lot of the going out and staying in topics. hotels, flights, exercise equipment, food delivery. that began to abate at the end of march. it has receded back to work its long run kind of average. it has done that kind of across the globe. interestingly, this has coincided with the break to lower yields in treasuries after one of the most boring environments in titrating arrangements in history. caroline: what is the connection? people -- why see this correlation that you are

currently focusing on? ben: i think we were in a holding pattern. investors were looking for some news for how long the growth in consumer spending can persist and on the flipside, how long can these bottleneck shortages and supply chain remain in disarray. all of this demand, supply, has resulted in higher prices. some of the correlation has to do with the stimulus checks which we are now removed from. we have seen the inertia behind search activity for a lot of these goods and services kind of abate after that four-week window or so. like your prior segment on inflation, prices have gotten quite elevated for certain products. cars, used cars mouses, large household durables. if you look at the university of michigan survey, you will see that we have some of the worst

buying conditions related to price that consumers are reporting. there may be some apprehension. given these elevated prices. and especially for my age group and younger, maybe believing that lower prices are coming in the future. joe: how much of this -- some of this pushback is like, look, if i am trying to buy a couch and i keep getting messages that it will be six months and it is super expensive, maybe i will just take a break and revisit the question in a year from now. ben: i think some of that is happening. the thinking of the younger cohort that i can wait it out, that the transitoryness of prices will come down. the inflation fear and a be some of the bigger fear of rising prices that could cause more demand is from the older cohorts. you have almost 50% of those

aged 55-plus see this tale to inflation come up five-plus percent. there is some concern. the younger cohort has not gotten as concerned. there is i think this now sitting on your hands, waiting period i think we have all heard stories about how wild housing prices have gotten in certain areas as well as the cost for getting wash machine or going out and buying a used vehicle. i think there is hesitancy showing up in the data. caroline: the data you are looking at, ahead of the fed, it is not all about inflation. the mandate to a certain extent his employment, jobs. anecdotal evidence on social media, tiktok and the like, there are videos being made of people walking out of their jobs, feeling they want to quit at a moments loaded -- at a moments notice because there is

so much supply. ben: we are seeing a strong labor market. i think some of the dynamics between the recruitment versus actual job seekers is a little bit misconstrued. it seems like job seeking is coming back. we are seeing search activity getting quite fervent, everything from part-time to full-time jobs. that has been strong over the past 1-2 months, fitting with the payrolls last month. we are expecting that to continue into june. we have this high level of job openings. 20-plus percent higher than pre-pandemic levels. it has been the jobseeking side that has been hard to figure out. it seems to have been getting better and better. maybe that will take further and further wage gains, particularly larger retailers and maybe the online retailers. it seems to be working to a certain extent. it seems come out of everything, they think the fed looks at the

most, the job market is doing well. inflation, we will see if that is something that will moderate. we have seen, in terms of the commodity markets, a retreat to about 50% of the major commodities producing positive monthly gains. that is from 100% previously. maybe this inflation story will continue to slow as well. joe: ben breitholtz. weakening commodities, shoppers pulling back a little bit, people going back on the job. maybe it is transitory. maybe it is all transitory. i am sold. powell got it right. caroline: is he going to cut on wednesday? joe: he has got to. i think dogecoin. i think he is going to hold.

caroline: some in the market might call him crazy. this is the end of this crazy little show. that is all for "what'd you miss?" joe: this is bloomberg. ♪

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