tv Bloomberg Daybreak Europe Bloomberg June 15, 2021 1:00am-2:00am EDT
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england as infections mount. the delta variant accounts for 90% of the u.k. cases. president biden's visit to europe continues with an eu-us summit, as nato warns of china's military power. jamie by -- jamie dimon says the trading boom could come to an end, signaling a big drop in trading revenue at jp morgan. the hunkering down in washington. the fed meeting begins. and marie, are we ready for a hawkish tilt echo a dereliction of duty is what martin malone warned us of yesterday if the fed is not a knowledge that conversation has started on tapering. and you know what, annmarie, as we go into it, inflation expeditions in the medium-term are in -- are added eight year high. >> the question i have, do
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inflation expeditions become a self-fulfilling prophecy? meeting if you have expectations, i will point our consumers getting into the fact that prices will go higher and start to hit pause on spending at a crucial time when the economy starts to reopen echo -- the echo -- reopen? manus: in some ways you get a self-restraint in the housing market, don't you? but the bears are beating out of the woods. morgan stanley is getting ready for a hawkish tilt. in terms of the markets, how do they look echo --? >> given the fact that we are waiting for the fed decision, it is a two day meeting. will hear from paypal. 1.8 4%. kkr is saying we could run 2.4% we are at 1.5% now.
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it will be about the 10 year, where it goes next, depending on this fed meeting. then we have the pound. 1.41, unchanged at the moment. freedom day as they call in the u.k., the reopening has been pushed back by four weeks. you heard president johnson there at the start of the program. another all-time high in the u.s., hitting record highs, asia a bit mixed today. it will be a bit of a holding pattern as we wait to hear what jay powell has to say. your point to commodities, i put lumber in there. we are down almost 6%. trading below $1000 per board seat dashboard feet. the first time since march. we are seeing in l -- we're seeing a quality of inflation concerns. the fed begins a two day meeting today. who better to join us then michelle jamrisko?
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give us a sense of what the expectations are going into this crucial meeting. >> it is a really important thing to take a look at the timing and spectrum of extrication's we are looking at right now. i think no one can recent -- reasonably expect the fed to ditch the transitory judgment. we are not out of the second quarter which they said all along would be noisy with the year on year can -- comparisons. the fed has some bad points in its corner. a dampening of consumer inflation expectations depending on which survey you look at. unfinished business in the labor market that they see. the problem is those in the inflation warning camp have a lot of evidence for their cause. we have ppi coming tuesday morning in washington. they have become rorschach tests where everyone sees what they want to see. markets have largely played along with the fed as we saw with the rally in treasuries after the very high u.s. cpi print last week.
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the expectation for something different from the fed are a bit loud, but notable. most economists in our survey expect to see the shift in the all-important top just a little bit to signal rate hikes could begin in 2023 rather than 2024, as they are shown in its forecast. a plurality of them see the fed ending at a more solid tapering timeline. so do not schedule your vacations just yet. there'll be plenty to watch for in the press conference this week around some of these sub debates. we are looking for comments around the housing sector which our colleagues in bloomberg economics point out is looking quite frothy across a number of countries. manus: michelle, great to have you with us. i said at the start of the show. we know your career is taking a new trajectory when annmarie hordern is talking about lumber prices per square thousand per foot. it is a big pivot for her. but on a more serious note, the
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bear voices are mounting. i think this is the interesting thing. you get jp morgan saying they are underpricing the rate hikes out there. we have pivoted to extreme achieved, i.e. 1.75%, to extreme the rich. we had a guest with us yesterday, martin malone, he said actually, the repricing in the bond market is due to supply shock because janet yellen's fed -- treasury bank account has plummeted. it is a supply shock back to repricing in the bond market. >> there certainly a heated side debate on what is going on in the bond market. why it has rallied. again, when you see such a high u.s. cpi print i think that will be also subject to debate. liquidity, different quirks in the bond market are becoming a different issue. i would point to roberto pearly, a former fed official who has been chasing this and running
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some numbers around why that might be the case. he is more in the camp of this is all bonds reacting to -- playing along with the fed and being more transitory than they believe or leading them to believe day-to-day with their inflation warnings. that is certainly something that is throwing a wrench in easy data analysis. i some but ties with annmarie. the other thing i would keep an eye on, the commodity trends you are mentioning, not just for lumber but for all the materials we have seen spike over the past couple of months and fuel this debate, as well. fiscal stimulus will remain a hot button issue. we will have to chase whether or not this is going to have an impact, as well, and perhaps change the debate for everyone. manus: those fiscal plans are going to be what could upend that. -- that bond market.
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michelle jamrisko, thank you very much. simone foxton has your first word news p she is in doha. >> thanks, manus. boris johnson announced a month-long delay in lifting england's virus curve. as concerns over a rapid rise in covid-19 cases persist. a particular concern is the increase in cases across the country of a highly contagious delta variant. the government also said it will not extend financial support for businesses further. even despite the delay. china's rising military ambition prevent nato -- present nato with challenges that must be addressed, the alliance said, marking a shift in a stance that could kindle a confrontation with beijing. the secretary-general stills and berg -- stolen berg heralded the speed the group stepped up to meet the fat. china said it will not step back in the face of challenges.
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microsoft's president criticized secret data subpoenaed by the u.s. government from cloud companies. he said gag orders on request from personal information undermine freedom and are hurting u.s. technology companies in europe. we spoke exclusively with -- he spoke extensively with emily chang. >> what we do know is clear, the doj use its authority in the trumpet maturation to pursuing an investigation of these reporters and people connected to congress, rather than serving a warrant on the individuals themselves. they went to the tech companies that had the emails or text messages, they went to apple and google and microsoft and not only served the warrant, they imposed a gag orders, nondisclosure orders, and i think it raises very squarely very critical issue about the wave this -- the way this law enforcement process should work.
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>> global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. annmarie: thanks so much. just ahead, how does an oil major become a renewables company? we will talk about the successes and challenges of energy transition. domicile interview next. this is bloomberg. -- you not miss our interview next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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with almost half coming from renewable energy. the norwegian state owned company plans to go further. it is targeting a 50% target of investment in renewables by 2030 . setting the agenda is the ceo of equinor. he joins us. anders, thanks for joining us. lots of headlines to get through. let's jump off with the share buyback and the cash dividend of $1.8 billion. as i built on a very -- is that builds on a very bullish forward outlook? >> what we are presenting today is a strategy where we are increasing our investment in renewables but at the same time increasing our cash flow and returns. that will enable us to give an attractive capital distribution to our shareholders. we are committed to provide more attractive capital distribution
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through energy transition while also investing. this capital distribution we are announcing today is an increase in 20% of the cash dividend from $.15 to $.18 per share. we will grow this in line with the long-term underlying earnings. in addition to this we are announcing our annual share buyback program for 2022. this is part of capital distribution. we are starting this share buyback now after the second quarter with a $600 million program. we are able to do so based on strong returns from our oil and gas business and also because we have demonstrated we can create a lot of value in the renewables. annmarie: a lot of this has to do with your returns. the capital you are getting from the oil and gas production. on doors, how do you do both? how do you become a green
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company while you make sure that you can have these dividends and buybacks and could --and continue to produce oil and gas? it is a tight line to walk. >> it is, but we have a very attractive oil and gas portfolio. we see that we are able to invest in increased oil recovery , particularly on the norwegian continental shelf. this has low breakeven, even below $25 per barrel. the payback time is less than 1.5 a year and we are producing this with very low missions. this combination of the attractiveness of oil and gas, using the cash from this industry over to investments in renewables and more than 50% investment in renewables after 2030. that will enable us to do the energy transition. by growing cash flow and providing attractive returns to our shareholders. it is based on all the past could work our employees are
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doing. we have really good people in the oil in gas business and we are able to take that competence and move it to our renewables unit and also to the carbon capture and hydrogen units. manus: anders, the agenda you have set this morning is about extending your oil and gas production to 2030. yet you set this zero carbon target. we've had a slew of backlash against big oil and exxon and shell. are you moving fast enough in the sightlines of the activist investors? do you run the rest -- risk you get an activist investor on board? are these in bishops enough lands? -- are these ambitious enough of plans? we think they are ambitious. we have been looking into -- what can we do to achieve the ambitions for us?
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what can we provide to help society with? we think we can do this by producing oil and gas with the lowest omissions possible. we are producing oil and gas with only one third of the omissions compared to our competitors. we are investing in offshore wind in particular where we have demonstrated that we have a competitive advantage. the world will need more carbon capture storage and clean hydrogen. we also have a lot of that competence. we already now are executing the world first projects where we will take third-party volumes of co2 from europe and safely store it on the norwegian continental shelf. annmarie: what about splitting up the company? have you ever thought about one being fossil fuel and one being a green company? >> we think there is a lot of opportunities between the parent company and the renewable business. particularly in project execution, taking that
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capability from oil and gas and see what we have done with the strategy. in terms of project capabilities. we also are using our extensive offshore competence to ensure that when we develop the offshore yield we will take all the competence we have about corrosion and so on where we are developing the offshore wind business. we are doing the same for most of the hydrogen and ccs and for renewables. we have a strong trading unit. in parts of our business. having these connected actually makes these work faster and better. manus: time always ticks down, anders, but the iea has called for no further discoveries, an immediate halt to new oil and gas developments.
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mohammed bin salman says the iea is in lala land when it comes to new discoveries. do you agree? >> i think that is a very important thing. it demonstrates the challenge we have ahead of us. the world needs more energy but it needs more clean energy. and needs carbon capture and storage. what we are presenting is to actually do more on these while we are producing oil and gas that the world needs. with his low omissions as possible. annmarie: thank you for joining us. an exclusive interview with the quinor president and ceo. the conference returns to paris. they will discuss the future of tech. this is blue bird.
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annmarie: 6:21 a.m. in london. good morning to you. this is daybreak. let's get a quick recap of your world news. first word news with simone foxman. hi, simone. >> hi. china's rising military ambitions present nato challenges that must be addressed, though -- the alliance said, marking a shift in stance i could candle a confrontation with beijing. the secretary-general heralded the speed at which the group stepped up to meet the threat. in response china warned it would not sit back in the face of any challenges. the u.k. is set to announce the
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broader terms of a free-trade deal with australia on tuesday. in the countries from -- in the country's post-brexit push to expand commerce beyond the eu. they are expected to cut tariffs on products like cars, clothing, and scotch. j.p. morgan is expecting a 38% trading revenue decline compared to a year ago. more than previously expected. it is a sign that the pandemic era trading boom could be drawing to a close. at a virtual conference, ceo jamie dimon says revenue would now be just a bowl of -- just above $6 billion. >> last quarter was exceptional. this quarter is more normal. probably north of 6 billion. still pretty good, by the way. i forget what the number wasn't
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2019, but plug in your number, north of six. >> global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. annmarie, manus. manus: thank you very much. it is one of europe's leading tech conferences. viva tech comes back to paris. starting tomorrow, the speakers include mark zuckerberg, tim cook to discuss what tech can do for society. and for the planet. bloomberg as part of vivatech. maurice bonjour, to see you. could to see you bringing the hybrid model to life. it is probably with us forever. annmarie and i were considering how to tackle this challenge. you have facebook and apple.
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a question we coalesced on. tech is a huger sponsor ability after this pandemic, more so than ever before. what should tech be doing at this conference to absolutely garner our trust in our data with them? good morning. >> good morning. thank you for having me. i'm extreme we please to be with you. vivatech is a very special year, in addition to which we said is hybrid, with a lot of technology which will be with a lot of innovation shown and great speakers. to your question, what technology can do, we hedged in already how technology has allowed business to not stop during the pandemic. as everyone, we have been able to work remotely. thanks to zoom teams, and other tools.
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tomorrow we see new ways of working and technology will be part of that life even more then it has been today. so the discussion with tim cook, with mark zuckerberg, if you others also. we also have the commissioner from europe. and we have someone regarding paypal. all of these will change our lives and there are a lot of things which are going to happen . this is what we try to get at vivatech. annmarie: maurice, coming out of the pandemic there will be changes for tech. but what about the outlook for the advertising space? what is the most radical shift? >> the first radical shift is
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something which has already happened, when you see that digital represents 58% of media spending. which is a norm us. the key question which will happen tomorrow is how are we going to deal with privacy. from a privacy standpoint, we have tools which will help our client still with these issues. there are some strong and very important skills to have and discussions, regarding the fact that some platforms have a market share which is starting to become a bit of a problem. manus: we are living in a technology hybrid world. i'm going to give you a request
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please stay with us. do not hang up the zoom. we will try to continue the conversation. there is plenty more ahead on a day that sees the english reopening delayed. ♪ wanna help kids get their homework done? well, an internet connection's a good start. but kids also need computers. and sometimes the hardest thing about homework is finding a place to do it. so why not hook community centers up with wifi? for kids like us, and all the amazing things we're gonna learn. over the next 10 years, comcast is committing $1 billion to reach 50 million low-income americans with the tools and resources they need to be ready for anything. i hope you're ready. 'cause we are. (announcer) if you've struggled to lose weight, you might think you were born with a slow metabolism, but what you may have is insulin resistance. fat becomes trapped inside your body and it becomes very difficult to lose weight. now there's golo. golo works to reverse the effects of insulin resistance, increase metabolic efficiency,
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annmarie: good morning from bloomberg's european headquarters. i am annmarie hordern with manus cranny. england delays its reopening as infections nouns. the delta variant accounts for 90% of u.k. cases. president biden's visit to europe continues, this as nato warns of china's military power. jamie dimon says the trading
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boom could be coming to an end, signaling a big drop in trading revenue for jp morning. man is, good morning. a lot of -- manus, good morning. a lot of politics going on. it is the start of fmo c meetings. manus: are we tired and emotional? not you and i, stocks. there is a hawkish tilt from the fed. s&p 500 again kissing records, european stocks up for the seventh session in a row. a blazing trail ahead of u.s. equities for the first time in the first time in a number of years. 10 year bonds anchored at 148. inflation expectations, are they spiraling into the onboard -- unmoored zone. mr. levy says no, kkr says we
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are not running out of control on the markets. the lira a little heavy on the back of the biden and erdogan meeting, because it irked the markets a little bit. they want to see the sanctions removed. a number of cycles, and some huge campaigns and merger and acquisition challenges. maurice, thank you for staying with anne-marie and i. the very essence of tech is about the risk, the risk of regulation. i want to get a sense from you, are you more concerned about regulation rising in the u.s., europe or china in regards to the tech future? maurice: i think we need more regulation than we have today. the last 20 years has had the
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internet develop in a huge way, and at the same time, we see a level of disorder that has helped some very large companies to become dominant in the market. some regulation is absolutely necessary. we should not have in excess of regulation, which is one of the sins of the europeans, we should have a good allens and something that is -- a good balance and a something protective all of the players. we must recognize that the market is unbalanced. some positive regulation would have a positive aspect for the market. annmarie: coming out of the pandemic, i'm going to stay with geographical zones manus pointed out, coming out of the pandemic,
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what do you see in terms of advertising sales in europe, the u.s. and asia and what does it mean for these regions's recovery? maurice: i will start with asia. asia had the last year less issues than the rest of the world. therefore, when you see the recovery of asia nowadays, it is more -- and at a level that is quite, i would say, the lowest of the whole world. if you look at the u.s., it is a v shape and you have a very strong return to investment. we see the same pattern with a small delay in europe happening. the economy is starting to boom, and stay booming because it is
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very strong, there is a very strong appetite for the consumer to consume, to shop, to go to theaters, to travel to really have a normal life. it is a little bit like if -- and they want to have everything. we have a hurry of consumption in our days. manus: we are doing it for the instagram, maurice. maurice, i remember many years ago we lifted your deal. it floundered on culture. we understand how that has made an approach. have you made up your mind? can you see it ever joining, or
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an absolute non? maurice: this is something that -- on a regular basis. we call this in french, what they are bringing on a regular basis every year. they are bringing some ideas which have a very little chance to succeed simply because it would be a nice headline to bring companies together. we have huge respect for what they have achieved so far. we believe it is a great company. however, we have a different destiny, and we think it is good for france to have two champions. annmarie: and when they spurned
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that approach, they wanted to extend your role in the chairmanship to do that. thank you for sticking with us today, and good luck on the vivatech conference. england's freedom day as a some have been calling it has been delayed, and auras johnson announced last night he was pushing back lifting virus curbs by a month amid growing concerns over a rapid rise of covid cases as a highly contagious delta variant spreads. the prime minister reassured britain the end is in sight. >> the only evidence i can see right now, i am confident we will not need or than four weeks, not beyond july 19. it is unmistakably clear the vaccines are working and the scale of the vaccine rollout has made our position incomparably better than in previous waves. annmarie: potentially the final extension of the removal of
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restrictions. our reporter joins us. this extension is really devastating for certain sectors. anecdotally, i know some private members clubs are planning to have huge blowout parties june 21. what does it mean for the economy in general? >> the announcement of the four week delay will come as a big blow for certain parts of the economy. boris johnson said it was time to ease off the accelerator because of the rapid spread of the delta variant. the main consequence for businesses is the degree of contact people will be allowed to have. it will also severely curtail earnings, especially in hospitality during what is usually a peak season for the industry. despite the announcement of what had been billed as freedom day, as you say, the government's d ashed hopes of support for businesses being continued.
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the furlough scheme will still be tapered as planned, despite warnings from leaders in the hospitality industry that delay would put hundreds of thousands of jobs at risk. on the other hand, we have been hearing reports of ledger -- labor shortages in various sectors in recent weeks. it may be the government is excepting that and trying to allow the economy to restructure, not to mention trying to save on the ballooning cost of a furlough. this could be in the nail in the coffin for lots of businesses and lots of sectors, hospitality, the arts, entertainment, recreation. economists had been expecting a delay for two to four weeks anyway, and we see mobility increasing despite restrictions overall, the economic impact could be limited. manus: thank you. yesterday, there was a real sense of angst at the change in
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government policy. thank you so much for joining us with the very latest on freedom day in the u.k. the main market driver today is all about the fed, some say this could be the biggest gathering of all. our guest, very patient this morning, is from ads investment solutions. thank you for being with us. the narrative in the markets that we could be in for a hawkish tilt. what would a hawkish tilt look like? or sound like, a.k.a. rhetoric? >> i think the expectations of a hawkish tilt are overdone. i don't think the fed is in the mood to change its policy stands. they will sit back and wait for inflation, the short-term inflation aspects to go away and
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on employment to start inching back to where it was before the pandemic. i think the expectations of a hawkish tilt are a bit overdone, however, what the fed has shown the last few weeks is they are willing to roll back some of their emergency programs and cut back on your corporate purchase program. now they are reversing it. i think some action on mortgages may come, where they should start buying mortgage-backed securities, but they might have more treasury purchases. this feeling around this meeting being a hawkish one, i don't think the fed wants it and i don't think the market wants it. annmarie: but the economy is recovering well. the financial conditions are very loose. don't they have to make at least a nod to what is going on in terms of the recovery in the united states? >> yes, and i think they have been making that when they have
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started talking about tapering. i think that is where they would like to leave it at. if you think about what the fed's aim is right now, to not create surprises in the market while we are still in a fairly restrictive environment caused by the pandemic. we are at the tail end of it, but we still have the impact of restrictions and the impact of incentives given to the public to stick to those restrictions. we are still not in a very normal environment for fed policy to change or go back to somewhat normal anyway. i think the fed would like this to be a nonevent, while still doing things to pull back on their emergency support they have given. as i said, they have taken back some of the emergency support from corporate bonds. now they will probably take it back from mortgages. the housing market is doing very well.
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not more than that. manus: i don't know how you feel at ads, there is a sense of exhaustion in the daily grind about the machinations of transitory tightening, taper, there is an exhaustion in the debate. is there a risk that when it arrives, perhaps it is most underpriced in the equity market relative to the bond market? >> it would seem the bond market pricing out inflation concerns. again, we have no reason to conclude the fed is wrong on its assessment of inflation pressures being transitory at the moment. however, the fed keeps stressing that it is transitory and that presents a stronger supply-side response. but i think we are still in the middle of those restrictions that are causing this transitory spike in inflation, and there is
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a risk this will be more than transitory, but we need to be in a much more normal environment to judge that the fed is not going to preempt that normal environment and make that judgment. and the bond markets tried to, have come to realize maybe we did it too much, and the bond market has pulled back, yields lower from where they were about a month and a half ago. so i am less worried about the equity market getting worried about inflation just yet, until they see an end to these restrictions around the pandemic. annmarie: to the point, it seems financial markets are obsessed with the idea it is transitory and will become more entrenched when it comes to inflation. are we making the bigger story on employment? globally, 75 million this year, that shortfall, 23 million
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unemployed next year. where is the unemployed make going to be when the fed delivers a statement this week? >> that's my point, i think we are overdoing it on the fact that inflation -- overdoing it on inflation. these are extraordinary times. they called for a suspension of market economics i intervention from the government in the economy by providing stimulus, imposing restrictions, and that caused a bit of a lopsided economy relative to services. now as those restrictions and -- end, we see jobs going up, and we need governments to accept that the economy can get back to its normal stage and then let job creation take on his normal role. we are not there yet and i think it will take some time.
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yesterday, china at the top of the agenda, but they all got an opportunity to deliver their message on russia. angela merkel did not go on-site site on the anti-china beat, did she? maria: she didn't. you know, this is a good point, because to some extent, the europeans often times a get accused of being too soft on china precisely because they have big economic interests when you look at the chinese economy and interdependencies with the european economy. what they say is this much more nuanced than that. the europeans believe nato and the g7 should not be against a country, they should be for something. they need to come up with ideas to put on paper and execute. when angola merkel -- when angela merkel spoke about the silk and belt road, she said the u.s. should come up with a similar plan.
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the point is coming up with ideas to counter china not go fully against china. that was reflected in the statement yesterday in nato when all of the allies agreed china as an economic power and could become a big nilla terry power, and to some extent that could be -- a big military power, and to some extent that could be a threat to the rules-based system. annmarie: the financial times reporting that the two sides are set to end a 17 year boeing and airbus disputes. this could save ilion's and tariffs. what do we know? will that be -- this could save aliens in tariffs. what do we know? maria: this will probably be announced today, 17 year disputes. one side accusing the other one of helping a company, to give them a competitive edge, and
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it's ultimately unfair competition. those tariffs could have done a lot of damage for both european products but also american products. today, the expectation is president biden and the commission will agree to suspend the tariff war and come up with a compromise that means they would have to implement a limit to state subsidies going to those two companies. the issue would be resolved. the tariffs have been suspended for three months, and this would signal a return to a normal relationship between the two sides. annmarie: thank you so much, maria tadeo. just ahead on the program, a warning from jamie dimon. this when it comes to trading revenue. the details, next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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annmarie: good morning, this is "daybreak: europe." jamie dimon is out with a warning for wall street, pandemic era trading boom drawing to a close. here to discuss is dani burger. this morning, he said just a little bit north of $6 billion, is this a surprise for wall street waters? -- watchers? dani: it was a surprise to some because we saw shares fall, not just j.p. morgan, all banking shares. the estimate had been around 6.5, so definitely more than expected, but we knew executives had been warning about this for basically the past year, saying the boom because of volatility and trading revenue is not going to last. this is more a case of wall street fine-tuning their models
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are what earnings will look like, rather than some huge shocker that the trading revenue isn't going to last. we also heard from james gorman at morgan stanley with a similar warning during the virtual conference jamie dimon spoke out. manus: jamie dimon is the king of guiding expectations. when we arrive on those results, so it is not pandemonium. deutsche bank, if you look at the strategy, this is what i call a medium-term investment strategy, they have had an absolute dealter -- belter. what is the trade? dani: an israeli shipping company. a 35-year-old trader made that's on distressed debt from this company and it is fascinating, as we see the turmoil and supply chains, you will get the winners and losers. deutsche bank certainly a winner.
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this bet was considered risky at the time, shipping rates were low because of tensions between china and the u.s., and this trader had a hard time getting anyone to join deutsche bank in this bet. it paid off and deutsche bank expected to earn about one billion dollars on this trade, because of shipping rates have gotten so high. this is a scoop from our european banking team. it is one of these winners from the dislocation, that a lot of people had a hard time and it would've been press yet to see coming. manus: my mind goes straight to the trashy bottom line, i wonder what the bonus is for the person who constructed the team -- the team, not the person. annmarie: i am sure he is wondering as well. manus: ok, i suppose we will find that. dani burger with the inside
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♪ anna: good morning. welcome to bloomberg markets: the european open. i'm anna edwards live in london. mark cudmore and joins me in singapore. the trade is less than an hour away. england delays its full reopening. the delta variant that risks the hospitalization surge as a vaccine rollout program races to get second doses done. president biden's visit to europe continues with an eu-
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