growth is going to be strong. >> low inflation, low rates, positive economic growth and strong earnings, a good backdrop for risk-taking. >> the fed has successfully lulled everyone to drink the kool-aid. >> if we are hawkish, i think it will be a mistake. >> the question is what risks are most important to the fed and what risks are important to the world economy. tom: good morning, everyone. we welcome you. if it is tuesday, it must be belgium. that is where the president is today. international relations as he traveled to geneva. also, the markets, matt miller in for jonathan ferro. lisa, a economic data that will move markets. lisa: people looking at retail

sales. typically a good barometer. this time, it might be messier because retail sales. retail is goods. we were looking at surfaces -- services. people took the service component to be the one picking up. tom: you see spx and nasdaq 100 close at record highs yesterday. the markets are talking. seriously, how are the markets talking to you this morning? lisa: the markets are saying we are risk on and not afraid. we are going to get going. it is not just stocks. new record lows of 3.8%. you have spread that postcrisis heights. we have complacency, but it is well-founded because we have so much cash out there that it is pushing asset prices up and people do not see an into it. tom: a lot going on this morning. sonali basak at the goldman

sachs office yesterday. james goldman. i love this man. if you can go to dinner, you can go to the office, i paraphrase. he made that quote for you. matt: those kind of quotes are not my favorite. i used to have a fraternity brother who said similar things. i think lisa is right about the markets right now. the bet is full on that the fed will hold tight. there was a great column that said the fed has to hold strong to prove its credibility. it is not just for markets. if they waiver now, they have no more credibility. tom: we are doing this with a huge amount of data and the fed meeting tomorrow. our special coverage, we will do that tomorrow. futures are green. nasdaq leads the way. whether nasdaq composite or the nasdaq 100 with big tech waiting as well. the hill not given me much.

140, whatever we were, to 148 over the last 48 hours. the real yield speaks volumes. that has not moved up towards any kind of reflationary tone. dollar a little bit stronger. yen regions bank -- weakens. the euro cannot get out of its way. international relations and all that is going on, we need a brief. lisa: i want to note something on the price of crude at the highest level since 2018. the latest fund manager from bank of america for the month of june saying that long commodities are actually considered the most crowded trade out there. it is interesting. tom: this is a value add with your daily brief. lisa: oh my goodness. you believe there is actually value here? 8:30 am, we get that data.

retail sales a good barometer of retail spending. this time, perhaps a little less so people actually expecting a decline in retail sales simply because people are shifting their spending to going out to eat, perhaps not going back to the office. data -- i will show you the data to get a sense of how much the goods inflation has been going hot. the eu-u.s. summit in brussels. very interesting to see the airbus. the fact that both regions decided to drop subsidies for airplane manufacturer -- manufacturing. tom: didn't they kiss and makeup? lisa: this is a huge deal. it has been five years. it started in 2005, pre-president trump. this has been ongoing. matt: the agreement is only for five years. lisa: yes, but these tensions have been percolating for a long time. that said, the fact that they have any agreement whatsoever,

they have a common enemy in china, rival is a better word, is telling and you are seeing harsher tones out of the european union. moving on, 4:00 p.m. when we get the treasury international capital flows. we have seen a huge uptick in the number of international investors. this, we will get a new read on that. this whole thing could be nerd alert. the bond market is a global dynamic lisa: nasty like -- the bond market is a global dynamic. tom: i want to translate this. does anybody in europe drive harley davidson? all of this airbus thing is about bundled tariffs and part of it is harley davidson's over to europe, right? matt: a lot of people do, but

those people are very wealthy because harley davidsons are incredibly expensive here. this is one of the things -- one of the reasons i am hopeful for an agreement because i cannot buy a sportster for less than $20,000. we are talking about a $10,000 right. tom: i could never get through harley davidson with ferro. do you want to talk about english soccer? matt: no. not at all. tom: we will move on then. you did better than romaine. we want to focus on the market. we have international relations going on. with the fed meeting, markets matter and there is no one better than brian weinstein to hold court on this, with morgan stanley. an open question to begin with, your massive remit. what is your biggest headache right now?

i want to know your biggest headache running global fixed income right now. brian: people need yield and you cannot find it. no volatility, inflation problem with m&a, and clients trickling in. we are getting reallocations into fixed income and it is hard to find quality bonds with decent yields. tom: this is so important, the idea of reallocations and rebalancing and the idea of something coming when you have to find another warm spot for it. do you have any belief that the wall of money that has been identified out there is going to go into the bond, the bill, the note to capture yield, or does it forever stay in short-term paper? brian: no, we are definitely seeing money move out of the curve and as the summer goes on, we will see that on the long end. you would think it would stay on the front end in it is trickling out. we saw in europe years ago when

they were negative. we are definitely seeing investors move away and still money coming into finance, but other money trickling out into risk assets. lisa: some people look at bond markets and say they are minute later by central banks. other people say maybe we should listen to the message that bond markets are sending, which is this inflationary and is a slower growth picture than could support equity valuations where they are. where do you fall on that debate? brian: i have been a lever in the demographic story. bond markets are manipulated by central banks, that said, it is getting hard to look through all of the signs that you are not as sure anymore. if there is a disinflationary tale we should be worried about, it is hard to argue there is not an inflationary tale the fed is playing with and we are a little surprised. as much as we thought rates will come down and stabilize my they have been as sticky as they are. lisa: how much is this an international story? brian: it has been an

international story for years. it is a distant letter -- disinflationary trend. that is why the fed is trying to hide them -- fight them. i think they are fighting a global disinflationary trend. matt: what are you watching for tomorrow from the fed? they are not going to turn hawkish, or else they would lose credibility. what do you watch in a meeting like that? brian: you watch the dots at the end. are there people that want to hike sooner? that is one thing you watch. you need to watch how they discuss paper and mortgages. i don't think they want to slow down, but i think they have a problem supporting the mortgage market outwardly. it will be interesting to see if they can move away from mortgage purchases all convincing the market is not a signal. they could also do nothing. but those are the things we are watching off the bat in the

press conference. tom: through the data, through the meeting, we will get you back on for a longer duration as we look at the morgan stanley call on fixed income. look at where we are, matt miller. in the ecb meeting last week and one of the clearer points of june halfway through is the space of a euro. it is remarkable how still the euro is. matt: absolutely. villeroy was saying that is their main job at the ecb. to hold the euro is their main focus and the ecb is willing to go as least -- at least as long as the fed business stimulates. tom: what is the perception of brussels in germany? we have a perception of brussels in the united kingdom and united states, but what is the perception of michelle and all of the eu ec thing out of germany? matt: it may be getting better

now that vaccinations are starting to roll in. but the perception of brussels in germany was deeply injured by the slow vaccination rollout. the government in berlin handed off vaccination purchasing and distribution to brussels and that looks like a big mistake for a long time from this perspective. tom: lisa, the 10 year yield, we have to stay on that throughout the day. lisa: the fact that it is coming back in. it is stickiness. the idea that you can go out to eat and come back to the office. there was a story today, fewer than three out of 10 white-collar employees were working out the office on average or content of the major cities in the u.s. they are going out to eat a lot more than that. tom: it will be a battle, to say the least. a delicate battle. thank you so much for listening in brussels. maria from brussels emails in. she says, tom, i am sorry.

that is our harley. thank you, maria. lisa: we appreciate your comment. tom: on the equity market, on a surging apple computer, michael holland in the 8:00 hour. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ritika: the u.s. and the european union have agreed to a truce in their 17 year dispute over a cross subsidy according to officials. the battle involving boeing and airbus closing gaps of more than $11 billion of goods. policymakers are concerned over china's state-funded aircraft maker. it is on track to become a major player in the industry. the u.k. will announce a free trade deal with australia. the agreement will cut tariffs on scotch whiskey, clothing, and

cars. british farmers have been concerned they could be undercut by cheap australian meat imports. the government has indicated that tax cuts could be phased in to protect farmers. beijing adds that the alliance should not exaggerate chinese military power. the statement illustrates the potential for attention to escalate. the u.s. is trying to convince allies to take a tougher approach to china. in the u.k., the coronavirus lockdown will last another four weeks. boris johnson pushed back his plan to lift restrictions until july 19. a more infectious variant has spread across the country and threatens to undermine efforts to vaccinate the country out of the pandemic. deutsche bank will rake in billions on a shipping that -- bet. a long shot bet on an israeli

company and integrated services. it would be back on track for one of its just wins in trade in more than a decade. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg.

♪ >> our relationship with russia

is at its lowest point since the end of the cold war. this is due to russia's aggressive actions. i am confident that eventually this will confirm our dual pact approach to russia. strong defense combined with dialogue. tom: the former prime minister of norway, leader of nato on the festivities of the last day or so. speaking of defense as well. matthew miller in for jonathan ferro with lisa abramowicz and tom keene. a lot of economic data today. futures at -15 right now. if it is tuesday, it must be those young. maria tadeo joins us from brussels for this important moment in this incredibly important summit in geneva. i look at what we have been talking about and i can see you

in the gts four $7,100. it is beautiful. it looks like something audrey hepburn would drive. the romance is there when we talk about investments in europe. how is the romance between the eu and america? maria: i think that everyone i have spoken with, diplomats, officials, they say it is a different mood. everyone is on message, relaxed. they are not checking twitter. to some extent, it tells you the story here. it is a return to more normal diplomacy. today, we are waiting for that agreement over boeing and airbus to come to fruition. this is a five year truce. i heard the conversation, yes, it is only five years, it is a declaration to say politics by tariffs is done under this administration. tom: with broader lien's

expertise on german defense and mr. stoltenberg talking about defense moments ago, what is the update you have on american troops in germany and across europe? will there be a sharp separation from the trunk dialogue -- trump dialogue to a new biden dialogue? maria: there could be, but the focus when it comes to the troops on the ground, which is already a complicated relationship and always a difficult decision to make, it is not so much focused on germany, but it will be around the eastern european countries. it is interesting to know that yesterday, president biden had a meeting with leaders of estonia, lithuania, and the polish prime minister. that gives you a real sense as to where the anxiety is in eastern europe. a lot of those countries are very close geographically to russia and over the past year, we have seen the russian

government moves troops very close to the eastern border of europe. that is problematic for them. matt: what about spending? some estimates have the u.s. contribute in as much as $7 trillion in total to nato, whereas germany has contributed $490 billion. the u.s. is not over one billion people. it does not make much sense that germany pays so little. they were pushed by trump to boost that, but they basically said not gonna do it. is it going to be a problem for biden? maria: matt, i am happy you asked. yesterday, this is something i did not hear. this was not a big conversation at nato. it is a big change from the trump administration. he was obsessed with that 2%. that did not feature in the conversations between the leaders. there was not a big talk behind the scenes.

nato will say we need the money to be well-equipped. everyone will have to be in. the americans want everybody to pay into this. i was surprised to see this was not a big topic yesterday. lisa: one thing that has been a big topic, both nato and the g7, the direction with china. you flagged this this morning. the president of the european commission saying, we want to diversifying our imports away from producers like china because we want more sustainability, less environmental damage, and transparency of labor conditions. why is this so important? maria: as the european union many times is accused of being soft on china. the european union has been changing when it comes to china over the past year. the eu-china investment deal that was approved is completely dead. diplomats will tell you that. this will not get approved.

when you look at the investment into china, they will tell you they want to bring some of that outside of china and move away from that. they have too much soft power. the problem with china is that the europeans look at this as not just a military relationship, but it has to be a full package. that is what emmanuel macron said yesterday. it has to be a much more comprehensive view. the germans tell you, we cannot simply be against china. we need to be for something. we need to have a plan. it is no good to say we do not agree to china and we want to be aligned with the united states. we need a plan to deal with threats that are chinese, not just military, but also economic. tom: maria, thank you so much. maria tadeo is in brussels this morning. i want to get back to the markets and i want to stay on script on the economic data coming today. we can state the seismic shift in the last week towards what jerome powell wants, it is

literally the markets doing the work for the fed. lisa: you cannot have said it better. the idea that we have record low bond yields, the fact that the markets are completely sanguine at a time of escalating growth of people buying into the transitory. going back to that fund managers survey for the month of june, three quarters of all respondents believes in a transitory story. only one quarter believe inflation is stickier. tom: i am looking at the german 10 year with that reversal. we had a huge move from a significant negative statistic, almost up to a positive number. there has been a good 20 the reversal. it is an elegant chart showing a greater negative yield on the 10 year yield. matt: i have been watching it closely as well. that is why the ecb is really in pains right now to out-dove the fed. they are very concerned about the currency. they typically do not come out and say that it is their job to

watch the currency, but we have heard villeroy say that is their only job. tom: lisa, i mean, it is just simple. we are out-doved. lisa: i am out-gloomed. tom: matt miller will never out-gloom you. i love what matt says there. lisa: this is a pretty important question. matt, weigh in here. the idea that if we do not get sticky inflation, the significance is dramatic for modern monetary theory. the idea that you can print money and not create inflation. this is a seismic shift. matt: if you don't get inflation. yet, we have seen prices for everything from the gas we put in our cars to the food we put in our mouths go up, up, up. tom: it is tangible.

i see it anecdotally from all of our listeners and viewers. thank you for all of those tweets and comments on the street, frankly. stay with us. lots of economic data. the fed meeting tomorrow. a wonderful lineup of experts to give you perspective. good morning.

♪ tom: "bloomberg surveillance." good morning from new york and berlin. matthew miller in for jon ferro today. romaine bostick has landed. we look for him here in the next hour. the data is mixed. the vix speaks volumes. 16.55 and a record high and the surge in the nasdaq yesterday as well. the 10 year yield at 149. we are all waiting for the economic data to give us an indication to that important fed meeting tomorrow. right now, a really important conversation. not long ago and far away, but a number of years ago, my book of the summer was a sleeper. i did not expect the excellence

of stewardship by john taft. he is baird vice-chairman, a legacy of american politics and wall street. it was a primal caused by john taft about the state of wall street. we are thrilled that we can revisit with john taft on stewardship. john, a year ago, i opened the wall street journal and one page with retrading and the next page with retrading and the page after that was free trading -- everything is free now and look at the mess we're in with order flow. how do we extract ourselves from all of the disaster we have seen from order flow, back to something or forward to something more normal? john: you are talking about payment for order flow, which is the engine that powers a lot of these free retail trading platforms. tom, i have always felt that paying for order flow was a smelly practice.

it is legal. it has to be married with all sorts of assurances that you are getting best execution. if you are selling off customer order flow and getting paid for that, how does that not create a conflict with your obligation to get the best execution for your clients? i think you are seeing on the part of our new very capable chairmen, a commitment to look at that, along with many of the other traveling issues surrounding retail trading. tom: would you suggest that the leadership at wall street, which you are part of, supports mr. gensler, and let's get to this to get some confidence back in trading away from the meme stocks? john: absolutely. i think very highly of the sec chairman. he is one of the most

knowledgeable fcc chairman we have had and he has already laid out clearly what his agenda is and it all makes sense to me. a greater transparency around shortselling. greater transparency around the use of total return swaps and payment for order flow, gamification, they are all on his radar. i think we should get at all of this. tom, what we have found in the past, it is partly what stewardship is about, is that our industry has a habit of taking legitimate practices that make a positive difference in the world and running them to access. -- excess. every time we do that, we get in trouble, our clients get in trouble, and society gets in trouble.

you can see some indications in the financial markets and i find those troubling and i look for regulators to try to tamp those down before they cause a big problem. lisa: the focus is shifting away from the trading activity to why there has not been more. lending in the banking sector. as someone -- why there has not been more lending in the banking sector. your grandfather having been the president of the united states, there is a question of how banks will shape themselves going forward as the lenders of helping to generate some of the recovery through some of the extensions to main street. how do you expect that to be transformed in terms of the lack of lending demand, the lack of demand from borrowers, to where we are now? john: a couple of things are going on. the post-covid softness in the economy led to a decline in demand for traditional lending. one of the things we have seen going on is there is plenty of

money available to be lent. it is just being lent out of the shadow financial sector. private equity funds, hedge funds are lending. part of the reason for that is during the financial crisis, the focus was legitimately and appropriately on making sure that banks did not behave in ways that almost brought a systemic meltdown and as a result, all sorts of capital requirements and restrictions were put on financial institutions, just like squeezing a balloon. you squeeze it on one end, it grows on the other end. we have seen capital available for lending moving out of the regulated to the unrelated banking sector. what i would like to see, and there is some of this going on, there was some during the trump administration. it remains to be seen during the biden administration -- is for regulators to say, take a deep

breath, say, we oversaw cases that story. we oversaw the rebooting of the financial sector. we put it on sounder footing, more stable than it has been an a long time. can we take some states to make it easier for financial institutions to do the job that society wants them to do? are we being restrictive? that is counterintuitive to the regulators in place under the biden administration. i think that is what is needed at this point. a re-look, not a reinstitution of dodd-frank. lisa: on the flipside, has systemic risk built up in the saddle banking system? john: certainly, a lot of people are worried about that. yes, i think that there are indications that, as there always are, risk-taking is being

pushed to dangerous levels in some areas of the unregulated financial sector. you just saw one in the explosion of archegos and what was the risky intake and? desk what was the risk -- what was the risk being taken? there are not as many disclosure obligations as there are with normal major stock positions and publicly traded companies. those kinds of holes in the system sometimes can be -- de-stabilize the financial system. banks took heavy losses, but they were not system-threatening or institution-threatening. i worry about excess is building up. they always do. we have a number of organizations and various research capabilities we did not have going into financial

institutions that are supposed to be scanning for risks. are they? let's hope so. matt: i was reading a story about a representative from new york. he is pushing for a 2.5% levy on wealth of more than $50 million. he says it is a one-off, but we know how those go. your great-grandfather was a champion of the 16th amendment, brought in the federal income tax for the first time in 1913. what do you think about now, transitioning to or adding on a wealth tax? john: boy. you never failed to get me to talk about politics -- you never fail to get me to talk about politics. they tell me, do not talk about politics. do not talk about your republican legacy. here is how i feel.

we think taxes can make sense if they are used to invest in productive assets in the real economy that make the economy grow faster. let's face it, unless you want to look at long-term inflation, the only viable way out of the hole we have dug ourselves in the course of the last three or four years is to grow our way out of it. if raising taxes and putting that money to work in a solid, legitimate infrastructure package is something congress can find a way to do, that is great. if wealth tax being used to fund more social spending, then we are just digging the hole deeper. it depends, what is going to be the use of the tax increase, whether it is one time or capital gains or ongoing income tax increase.

i would just point out that william howard taft, his focus was on corporate income taxes, not personal income taxes. tom: thank you so much. he is with baird. futures up two. i'm going to call a real stasis in the market. lisa: i am still thinking about what he said about the shadow banking system. this is something a lot of people have raised, the idea that it has ballooned. the private asset market includes $7.5 trillion of assets and is expected to double in the next four years. a question of how much risk of developing. whether it is systemic, if it is not concentrated in a big institution, or if these institutions have gotten big enough to be that way. these are important questions that have not been tested. this is one of the potential consequences of a prolonged period of time such low interest

rates leading to complacency without people checking some of this risk. tom: it is the walls of worry out there. i want to point out spx and nasdaq up to record highs yesterday. look at the framework of worry, whether it is in economics or in the earnings season coming up. it is a real mystery. i look at where the president is an going to mr. putin tomorrow in geneva, your thoughts on how the president and mr. putin will get on in geneva? matt: i don't think they will be great friends, considering the fact that biden has already called putin a killer in a telephone conversation. maybe they will be able to work something out. no one else has been able to deal with the power and the overreach of pollutant in europe -- overreach is putin -- overreach of putin in europe. president trump was not able to stop him either.

tom: our chief from the white house traveling with mr. biden. jennifer jacobs will be with us. maria tadeo is scheduled to be in geneva as well. stay with us. economic data in one hour and a half. early morning time. retail sales. this is bloomberg. good morning. ritika: it is a dispute that has lasted 17 years. the u.s. and the european union have agreed to a five year truce in a fight over subsidies to airbus and boeing. that battle led them to impose tariffs on $11.5 billion of each other's exports. a formal announcement is expected later today. the european union is set to lift restrictions for u.s. residents snf this week. bloomberg has learned u.s. will be added to a white list of countries from which non-essential travel to the eu is allowed. that will be airlines which rely

on the profitable transatlantic route. president biden calls vladimir putin a where the adverts read at a news conference following the nato summit. the president said he will tell the russian leader that it is in his interest to change the perception of him. he warns that if alexei navalny dies in prison, it will be a tragedy that would hurt relations with the rest of the world. for now, a bipartisan group of 10 senators working on it infrastructure plan by keeping the idea -- working on an infrastructure plan. the white house has not released details of the plan. a sign that lawmakers are having problems reaching partisan -- breaching partisan differences. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg.

♪ >> there has been no trial

against variants. our trial has 90% overall length of deceit against the variants, which were 82% of our trial. we got 93% efficacy. that is really important to talk about future vaccination. this shows that our vaccine works consistently in different clinical trials and different geographies. tom: novavax yesterday with very good news. on this tuesday morning, the president of belgium -- in belgian. we are waiting for the u.s.-eu summit. we should have images of that in moments. we are waiting for that now. in the meantime, we must sit on the pandemic and it is wonderful to do that with a methodology of johns hopkins -- with amesh ad

alja of johns hopkins. we are throwing around numbers with temperatures and one of the numbers -- with temperatures -- amatuers. dr. adalja: you want to have as high a number as possible. we are going to see benefits, even if we don't make that target and it looks like we are not going to make that target. we have already seen benefits in terms of cases is an extreme benefit when it comes to hospital capacity concerns. it is not just that 70% that have gotten one dose. it is also people who have gotten natural immunity. we are on a good pace, even if we did not meet joe biden's goal of 70%. we should celebrate if we get to that. we are in good shape regardless. lisa: should businesses require employees to get vaccinated? dr. adalja: this is something

businesses have to think about depending on the function of the business. healthcare companies, hospitals, nursing homes, that needs to be mandatory. it should be a condition of employment. other businesses should do all they can to encourage people to get vaccinated. make it as easy as possible, having them days off, enticements, and privileges when they are fully vaccinated. they don't have to wear their mask at work. all of that would be important. whether or not they need to fully mandate it, i lean toward yes, but there is some variability depending on the industry. lisa: the question has to do with corporate america and the global corporations. it also has to do with schools as we head toward august when people start going back to the classroom. do you think that eventually we will move to a regime where a covid-19 shot will be alongside the measles, mumps, and tetanus? dr. adalja: that is where we

are going. this will be a virus that is with us after the emergency has ended. it will be a routine vaccination where we do not think much of it. it will be given to children at some period of time and it may not be the first generation vaccine. it might be a second generation vaccine that becomes a routine childhood one. matt: just one time? i would think it would be more like the flu vaccine where we get it every season. is that more likely? dr. adalja: i don't think that is likely. we cannot play the time faster than it is going. we have to follow people who have been vaccinated and c are they getting infections severe enough to land them in the hospital. the flu vaccine is given every year because it gets updated. there is a totally different vaccine. we know with all of these vaccines for covid-19, that they work against the variants. there is no reason to update the vaccine.

they could be two years, three years, it is impossible to tell until we have followed people who have been vaccinated and see what happens to them. matt: according to the johns hopkins website, 44.15% of americans have been fully vaccinated, whereas 45.85% of people in the united kingdom has been vaccinated. yet, there is a new outbreak in the u.k.. is that all to do with the delta variant? what is happening there and could it happen in the u.s.? dr. adalja: it does appear that the delta variant is a more contagious variant. the delta variant is a new name for what was once called the indian variant. it seems more contagious. we don't know if it is more severe, but we do know the vaccines, having two doses is very protective. but remember, our goal was to

de-couple cases from hospitalizations and deaths. i am less worried, because we know the virus is there. culturally, wherever the delta variant appears, you will have high-risk individuals heavily vaccinated, meaning people above the age of 65. 75 and up are fully vaccinated in the united states. when we see the delta variant -- we may see the delta variant cause cases, but it does not have the capacity to but i hospital in crisis because the high-risk people are all vaccinated. tom: thank you so much for your repeated visits with us. amesh adalja with us this morning. i want to dive into retail sales. there is a real feeling out there with market in not -- market economics. just a little soggy. lisa: a month over month decline of -.7%.

the interest here is that this is coming from a decline in goods purchases. people are not buying as much stuff because they are going out and doing things and buying airplane tickets and renting cars and that is where you are seeing inflation. later in the month, we will be seeing the inflation-adjusted goods and services data and that will be a little more telling when it comes to how much cash people are spending. tom: the backdrop of this is we walked away from the inflation talk. you see it with the yield to four digits. when you dovetail the economics into the yield story as we heard from mr. weinstein of morgan stanley, all in all, it is about an american recovery that looks more durable than the gloom of two months ago. lisa: the organization for economic cooperation and development came out with a report showing there are millions of jobs not only still missing, but will be missing a year from now. the question is how much does this reduce inflationary

pressure. there are still people not getting back into the labor force, the underemployed, the people out of the labor force. this has been the question. how quickly can we close that gap and if it is persistent, do we not get that inflation? tom: matt miller, are the underemployed in europe as well or is this a uniquely american issue? matt: no, that is a european issue as well. we have a social safety net that helps them out. the oecd report that lisa brought up was interesting as well because it also showed some real red signals in terms of the housing market. it could be on the cusp of a real problem in terms of rising prices and not enough inventory. tom: we have a lot coming up. we are waiting on the president with ms. von der leyen and mr. michel in brussels. dow futures, negative five. the yields are very quiet this

morning. there is the headlines of national recovery. -- there is the headline of national recovery. the national mall to open for july 4 fireworks. bloomberg with our coverage of the boston pops as well. please stay with us. this is bloomberg. this -- good morning.

wanna help kids get their homework done? well, an internet connection's a good start. but kids also need computers. and sometimes the hardest thing about homework is finding a place to do it. so why not hook community centers up with wifi? for kids like us, and all the amazing things we're gonna learn. over the next 10 years, comcast is committing $1 billion to reach 50 million low-income americans

with the tools and resources they need to be ready for anything. i hope you're ready. 'cause we are. (woman) i don't want to look like this anymore. (man) what is happening to my body? (woman) why can't i lose weight? (announcer) you may be suffering from insulin resistance. measure your waist. females measuring more than 35 inches and males measuring more than 40 inches may have insulin resistance. to learn how to reverse insulin resistance and lose weight effectively, go online to golo.com. once again, that's golo.com.

♪ >> we are a boom that are in a boom -- we are in a boom. i think growth is going to be quite strong. >> low inflation, low rates, positive economic growth, that is a positive backdrop for risk-taking. >> the fed has lulled everybody to sleep with the kool-aid that they are not going to focus on inflation. >> what risks are most important to the fed and what risks are most important to the world economy? >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning everyone. a simulcast on bloomberg radio, bloomberg television. we welcome all of you around the world. romaine bostick in for john miller. john miller, matt